Probable Causation

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway. “Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Mandeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions. "Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Bigger, and David J. Hendry. “The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa” by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse. “Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs” by Jonathan David and Sara B. Heller. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests" by Stefan Wager and Susan Athey. “Civic Responses to Police Violence” by Desmond And and John Tebes. [Working Paper]. “Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race” by Hannah L. Walker. Bonus Episode 10 of Probable Causation: Hannah Walker.

Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force. “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello. “Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. [American Economic Review forthcoming]. “Randomized Controlled Trial of Social Interaction Police Training” by Kyle McLean, Scott E. Wolfe, Jeff Rojek, Geoffrey P. Alpert, and Michael R. Smith. “Is Police Training an Effective Intervention for Addressing Disparities?” by Hunter Johnson, Stephen L. Ross, and Steve Mello. [Available from the authors]. “Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. “Learning By Doing in Law Enforcement” by Jeremy West. “The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrest Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera. “Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin Holz, Roman Rivera and Bocar Ba. “Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes” by Emily Weisburst. “A Cognitive View of Police Misconduct” by Oendrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah [Paper available from the authors]. “Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police Officers” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon. Episode 73 of Probable Causation: Danila Serra.

Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South. “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Community Policing, Chicago Style” by Wesley G. Skogan and Susan M. Hartnett. “Impact Evaluation of the LAPD Community Safety Partnership” by Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, Jorja Leap, and P. Jeffrey Brantingham. “Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing: Experiments on Building Trust” by Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. [Forthcoming book.]

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago. “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, Caterina Gouvis Roman, Lindsay Bostwick, and Jeremy R. Porter. “Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It” by Sara B Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh, and Max Kapustin. “The Enhanced Transitional Jobs Demonstration: Implementation and Early Impacts of the Next Generation of Subsidized Employment Programs” by Cindy Redcross, Bret Barden, Dan Bloom, Joseph Broads, Jennifer Thompson, Sonya Williams, Sam Elkins, Randall Jurus, Janae Bonus, Ada Tso et al. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence” by Charles Branas, Shani Bugs, Jeffrey A. Butts, Anna Harvey, and Erin M. Kerrison. “Advance Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report” by Jason Corburn and Amanda Fukutome. “Implementation Evaluation of Roca, Inc.” by Abt Associates. “Reaching and Connecting: Preliminary Results from Chicago CRED’s Impact on Gun Violence Involvement” by Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative.

Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms. “Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Market” by Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne. “Incentives for Managers and Inequality Among Workers: Evidence from a Firm-Level Experiment” by Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Barankay, and Imran Rasul. “What Drives Differences in Management Practices?” by Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and John Van Reenen. “When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct” by Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru. “Monitoring Harassment in Organizations” by Laura Boudreau, Sylvain Chassang, and Ada Gonzalez-Torres. [Working paper.]

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal. “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings. “Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort. "Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request. "The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. "The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov. "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019. "Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users” — World Health Organization report. “Needle exchange programs and drug injection behavior” by Jeff DeSimone. “Needle exchange programs: Research suggests promise as an AIDS prevention strategy” — GAO report. “Syringe exchange programs around the world: The global context” — GMHC report. “The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system. “The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes Harris, Heather Evans, and Katherine Beckett. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. [Working paper.] ”Does Punishment Compel Payment? Driver’s License Suspensions and Fine Delinquency” by Ryan E. Kessler. [Working paper.] “Disparate Fine Collection: Evidence using Chicago Parking Tickets” by Elizabeth Luh. [Working paper.] “Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen. “Learning from Law Enforcement” by Libor Dusek and Christian Traxler. “Criminalizing Poverty: The Consequences of Court Fees in a Randomized Experiment” by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. “Measuring Child Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data” by Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Brittany Street. “Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and EExpenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data” by Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. [Working paper available from the authors upon request.] “The (Non)Economics of Criminal Fines and Fees” by Tyler Giles. “A Proposal to End Regressive Taxation through Law Enforcement” by Michael Makowsky. “Revenue-Motivated Law Enforcement: Evidence, Consequences, and Policy Solutions” by Michael Makowsky.

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public. “Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Working paper available from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Safety First: Perceived Risk of Street Harassment and Educational Choices of Women” by Girija Borker. “Violence and Female Labor Supply” by Zahra Siddique. “Demand for Safe Spaces: Avoiding Harassment and Stigma” by Florence Kondylis, Arianna Legovini, Kate Vyborny, Astrid Zwager, and Luiza Andrade. “Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” by Erica Field and Kate Vyborny.

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman. “Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs. “Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg. “Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC. “Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum. Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne. Episode 80 of Probable Causation: Thomas Dee. Episode 77 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos. “Ten Solutions for Emergency Department Crowding” by Robert W. Derlet and John R. Richards. “A Randomized Control Trial Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock. Episode 78 of Probable Causation: Sandip Sukhtankar. Episode 75 of Probable Causation: Panka Bencsik. Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.

Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others. “What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?” by Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Jonathan Schellenberg, and Christopher Walters. “Why Do Households Leave School Value Added 'on the Table'? The Roles of Information and Preferences” by Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Miguel Urquiola. “Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice” by Felipe Arteaga, Adam J Kapor, Christopher A Neilson, and Seth D Zimmerman.

Anita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons. “The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Interpersonal Violence Associated with Hot Weather” by Rahini Mahendran, Rongbin Xu, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo. “Heat and Violence" by Craig A. Anderson. “Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-related Retaliation in Baseball” by Richard P. Larrick, Thomas A. Timmerman, Andrew M. Carton, and Jason Abrevaya. “The Urban Crime and Heat Gradient in High and Low Poverty Areas” by Kilian Heilmann, Matthew E. Kahn, and Cheng Keat Tang. “Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: The Effect of Gun Laws on Violent Crime” by Jonathan Colmer and Jennifer L. Doleac. [Working paper.] “Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making Under Thermal Stress” by Ingvild Almas et al. [Working paper.] “Keep the Kids Inside? Juvenile Curfews and Urban Gun Violence” by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac. “Heat, Crime, and Punishment” by A. Patrick Behrer and Valentin Bolotnyy.

Thomas Dee talks about the effects of dispatching health workers instead of police to some 911 calls. “A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Variation Across Police Response Models for Handling Encounters with People with Mental Illnesses: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis” by Chunghyeon Seo, Bitna Kim, and Nathan E. Kruis. “Crisis Averted? The Effect of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Strickland. [Draft available from authors upon request]

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020. "Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin. "What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller "More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce. “The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif. “Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker. “Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker. “As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson. “Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack. “Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian. “The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Jenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration. “Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky. “Early Release from Prison on Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: A Tale of Two Discontinuities” by Olivier Marie. “Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey. “Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: Quasi-Experimental Evidence form Norway” by Synøve Nygaard Andersen and Kjetil Telle.

Sandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India. “Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Brazil” by Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds. “Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India” by Sofia Amaral, Sonia Bhalotra and Nishith Prakash. [Working paper available from the authors]. “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair et al.

Elizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers. “Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Copenhagen Burnout Inventory: A New Tool for the Assessment of Burnout” by Tage S. Kristensen, Marianne Borritz, Ebbe Villadsen, and Karl B. Christensen. “Understanding Burnout in Correctional Officers” by Jessie Harney and Elizabeth Linos [Working paper available from the authors.] Episode 43 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos

Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence. “Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The White/Black Educational Gap, Stalled Progress, and the Long-term Consequences of the Emergence of Crack Cocaine Markets” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore. “Youth Violence, Guns and the Illicit-drug Industry” by Alfred Blumstein. Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Stephen Billings. “The Emergence of Crack Cocaine and the Rise in Urban Crime Rates” by Jeff Grogger and Michael Willis. “Measuring Crack Cocaine and its Impact” by Roland G. Fryer Jr., Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy. “The Social Costs of Gun Ownership” by Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig. “It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder” by Lena Edlund and Cecilia Machado. “The Role of Gun Supply in 1980s and 1990s Youth Violence” by Wm. Alan Bartley and Geoffrey Williams. “Firearms and Violence Under Jim Crow” by Michael D. Makowsky and Patrick L. Warren. “The Emergence of the Crack Epidemic and City-to-Suburb Mobility Between and Within Ethno-Racial Groups” by Takuma Kamada. “Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California” by Alessandro Flamini, Babak Jahanshahi, and Kamiar Mohaddes. “Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply” by Timothy J. Moore & Kevin T. Schnepel. Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel. Episode 27 of Probable Causation: Benjamin Hansen. “Causes and Consequences of Illicit Drug Epidemics” by Timothy J. Moore and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula.

Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests. “Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey. Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey. “Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel. Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst. Episode 65 of Probable Causation: Felipe Goncalves. “Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program Effects on Criminal Justice and Legal System Utilization and Costs” by Susan E. Collins, Heather S. Lonczak, & Seema L. Clifasefi. “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, and David C. Phillips. Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates. “The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack. “Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy” by Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raudenbush, and Felton Earls. “Social Interactions and Location Decisions: Evidence from U.S. Mass Migration” by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor (Forthcoming). “Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration” by Ellora Derenoncourt. Episode 36 of Probable Causation: Ellora Derenoncourt. “Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.

Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana. “Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. “Shaping Police Officer Mindsets and Behaviors: Experimental Evidence of Procedural Justice Training” by Rodrigo Canales et al. “The Greater Manchester Police Procedural Justice Training Experiment” by Levin Wheller, Paul Quinton, Alistair Fildes, and Andy Mills. “Can Police Training Reduce Ethnic/Racial Disparities in Stop and Search? Evidence from a Multisite UK Trial” by Joel Miller, Paul Quinton, Banos Alexandrou, and Daniel Packham. “Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, and Andrew V. Papachristos. Revised findings for “Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, Andrew V. Papachristos et al. “Doing Research with Police Elites in Ghana” by Emmanuel Addo Sowatey and Justice Tankebe. “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior. “Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls” by Manasi Deshpande. “Changing Circumstances: Experiences of Child SSI Recipients Before and After their Age-18 Redetermination for Adult Benefits” by Jeffrey Hemmeter, Jacqueline Kauff, and David Wittenburg. “Longitudinal Patterns of Disability Program Participation and Mortality Across Childhood SSI Award Cohorts” by Kalman Rupp, Jeffrey Hemmeter, and Paul S. Davies. “Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?” by Crystal S. Yang. “Does Emergency Financial Assistance Reduce Crime?” by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan. Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome

David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records. “Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja B. Starr. “The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen. Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan “Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets” by Amanda Pallais. “The Effects of Letters of Recommendation in the Youth Labor Market” by Sara B. Heller and Judd B. Kessler.

Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil. “De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” by Barak Ariel, et al. “The Effects of Body-Worn Cameras on Police Activity and Police-Citizen Encounters: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Anthony Braga, et al. “Body-worn Cameras’ Effects on Police Officers and Citizen Behavior: A Systematic Review” by Cynthia Lum, et al. “Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock. “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, et al. “How Body-worn Cameras Affect the Use of Gunshots , Stop-and Searches and Other Forms of Police Behavior: A Randomized Control Trial in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, Gustavo Robles, and Gustavo Empinotti [WORKING PAPER] “The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe. “Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

Molly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students. “Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use” by Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, Hannes Schwandt, Sam Trejo, and Lindsey Uniat. “Not All School Shootings are the Same and the Differences Matter” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. “Exposure to a School Shooting and Subsequent Well-Being” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. “Shocking News and Cognitive Performance” by Panu Poutvaara and Olli Ropponen. “School Shootings and Private School Enrollment” by Rahi Abouk and Scott Adams. “The Effect of High School Shootings on Schools and Student Performance” by Louis-Philippe Beland and Dongwoo Kim. “The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students” by Desmond Ang. Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang. “Surviving a Mass Shooting” by Prashant Bharadwaj, Manudeep Bhuller, Katrine Løken, and Mirjam Wentzel. “Violence and Human Capital Investments” by Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner and Lívia Menezes.

David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, "Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior. “Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs. “Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes” by Douglas Almond, Hilary W. Hoynes, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach. “Consumption Responses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary W. Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach. “Long-run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net” by Hilary Hoynes, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Douglas Almond. “Work Incentives and the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach. “The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program” by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz. “Adult Outcomes as a Function of an Early Childhood Educational Program: An Abecedarian Project Follow-up” by Frances A Campbell, Elizabeth P Pungello, Margaret Burchinal, Kirsten Kainz, Yi Pan, Barbara H Wasik, Oscar A Barbarin, Joseph J Sparling, and Craig T Ramey. “Breaking the Cycle? Intergenerational Effects of an Anti-Poverty Program in Early Childhood” by Andrew C. Barr and Chloe Gibbs. “Long-term Effects of Nurse Home Visitation on Children's Criminal and Antisocial Behavior: 15-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Olds, Charles R. Henderson Jr, and Robert Cole. “Longer-Term Effects of Head Start” by Eliana Garces, Duncan Thomas, and Janet Currie. “Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start” by David Deming. “The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s” by John Anders, Andrew C. Barr, and Alexander A. Smith. “Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead” by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel. Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Steve Billings. “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome. “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling. “Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik. “Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik. “Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers. “The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann. “Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson. “The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach” by Brian D. Kelly & Maureen Kole. “The Ferguson Report: Department of Justice Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department” by Department of Justice. “Pay, Reference Points, and Police Performance” by Alexandre Mas. “Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform” by Jonathan Mummolo. “The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar Ba & Roman Rivera. “Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer?” by Edith Linn. “‘Drive and Wave': The Response to LAPD Police Reforms After Rampart” by Canice Pendergast. “Policing the Police: The Impact of 'Pattern-or-Practice' Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello “Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, Robert Witt “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac & Anna Harvey Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey “Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy” by Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre Becerril and Morgan Williams Jr. “The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin & Felipe Goncalves

Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact. “Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle. “Child Protection and Adult Crime: Using Investigator Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle. “Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson and David Pozen. “The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes” by Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine S. Hastings, and Margarita Machelett. “Foster Care and Child Welfare” by Kelsey Roberts. “Temporary Stays and Persistent Gains: The Causal Effects of Foster Care” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross.

Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops. “Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nicola Persico, and Petra Todd. “A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight. “An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamina Anwar and Hanming Fang. “A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves and Steven Mello. “Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway. “Can Racial Bias in Policing Be Credibly Estimated Using Data Contaminated by Post-Treatment Selection?” by Dean Knox, Will Lowe, and Jonathan Mummolo. “The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel. “The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco” by Elsa Augustine, Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, and Steven Raphael. “Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian. Probable Causation, Episode 59: Kerri Raissian. “Restorative Justice Conferences as an Early Response to Young Offenders” by Edmund F. McGarrell. “Family Group Conferencing and Re-Offending Among First-Time Juvenile Offenders: The Indianapolis Experiment” by Edmun F. McGarrell and Natalie Kroovand Hipple.

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it. “Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly. “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson. “Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” by Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast. “The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System” by David Skarbek. “The Political Economy of Organized Crime: Providing Protection When the State Does Not” by Stergios Skaperdas. “Gangs as Primitive States” by Stergios Skaperdas and Constantinos Syropoulos. “Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. (Working paper.) “Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Working Paper.) “Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development: The Role of Extortion in El Salvador” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. ”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin. “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen. ”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara. ”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara. ”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe. “A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz. ”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle. ”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler. ”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings. ”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu. ”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski. “Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon. “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist. Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac. "Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington. "Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders. "Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier. "Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke. "Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas. "Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald. "Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg. "Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde. "The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer. "Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman. "An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker. "The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh. "Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith. "What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel. "Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall. "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler. "An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman. "How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino. "Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen. "School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts. “Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Love, Hate and Murder: Commitment Devices in Violent Relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó. “Do Domestic Violence Courts Work? A Meta-Analytic Review Examining Treatment and Study Quality” by Leticia Gutierrez, Julie Blais, and Guy Bourgon. “The Impact of Specialized Prosecution on the Safety of Domestic Violence Victims” by Ashna Arora, Xander Beberman, Zubin Jelveh, and Ashley Motta. (Available upon request from the authors.) “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac. “The Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime: Evidence from the Stockholm Subway” by Mikael Priks. “The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime” by Santiago Gómez, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Tobón. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. Probable Causation Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni. “Encouraging Desistance from Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brantingham, F.P. Schoenberg, and G.E. Tita. “Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, Sean Malinowski, Mark Johnson, G.E. Tita, Andrea L. Bertozzi, and P.J. Brantingham. “The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer Doleac. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Anker, Jennifer Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. “Police Officer on the Frontline or a Soldier? The Effect of Police Militarization on Crime” by Vincenzo Bove and Evelina Gavrilova. “Peacekeeping Force: Effects of Providing Tactical Equipment to Local Law Enforcement” by Matthew C. Harris, Jinseong Park, Donald J. Bruce, and Matthew N. Murray. “Police Safety, Killings by the Police, and the Militarization of US Law Enforcement” by Federico Masera. “Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia. “Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird. “Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming). “Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti. “Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos. “Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía. “Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler. “Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.). “Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo. “Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew. “The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio. “Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. “Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi. Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi “Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi.

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt. “COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens. “Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst. “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello. “The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller. “Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.