February 13-15 | Ledger Recap
Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports · Prediction Markets HQ | Daily Sports Betting, Kalshi & Polymarket Data
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Show Notes
It is February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.
On today's episode, we review the session's performance on Kalshi and Polymarket, starting with a deep dive into the IOWA STATE vs. KANSAS matchup. We analyze why the market mispriced the Kansas interior defense and how we can find more alpha by moving up the alt-spread ladder when our conviction is high.
We also look at the lessons learned from the Vanderbilt vs. TEXAS A&M upset. Marcus explains why the 'Under' failed to hit and how prediction market participants can use liquidity to trigger stop-losses on losing positions rather than riding them to zero. Finally, we look at the Team World vs. USA Stars exhibition and discuss our new 'Conviction Calibration' rule for future college basketball bets.
- Portfolio Review: Tracking units and PnL
- Film Room: Iowa State's tactical dominance
- Risk Management: Stop-losses and liquidity on Kalshi
- Strategic Evolution: Why execution beats prediction
Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.
Contact: [email protected]
"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
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