Plain English with Derek Thompson

What if, in trying to fix the hangover of domestic inflation, the Federal Reserve is accidentally triggering a series of diabolical domino effects that could screw up the global economy? Joining the show today to walk us piece by piece through those dominos is Kyla Scanlon, a writer and brilliant economic explainer on TikTok and YouTube. Kyla is an expert at what I try to do with this show, which is to explain complicated ideas in simple ways without losing the nuance that makes them complicated in the first place. I’ve learned a lot from her. And I hope you do, too. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kyla Scanlon Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A wide-ranging conversation with speaker and star podcaster Scott Galloway ('The Prof G Pod,' 'Pivot') on his new book 'Adrift,' why being a pundit means being a talented “catastrophist,” the struggles of broke and lonely men, the upside of crypto, and the dark side of the metaverse. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Scott Galloway Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, continuing one of the fastest escalations of the benchmark rate in history. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, warned that more pain was to come as the central bank fixes its eye on Sauron on our core inflation. But the theme of this episode is that U.S. interest rate policy does not stop at the U.S. border. Our monetary policy is a lever that moves the world. Soon after the Fed’s announcement last week, the British pound crashed, oil prices fell, currencies (crypto- and otherwise) fell, and the possibility of a global downturn came ever slightly into greater focus. Today’s guest is Jason Furman, the Harvard economist and former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama. We talk about the state of the U.S. economy, why the Fed is doing what it’s doing, the best arguments against rising interest rates, the global fallout of U.S. monetary policy, and the possibility that the world economy is headed for a dark, dark winter. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Furman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

American men have a problem. They account for less than 40 percent of new college graduates but roughly 70 percent of drug overdose deaths and more than 80 percent of gun violence deaths. As the left has struggled to offer a positive vision of masculinity, male voters have abandoned the Democratic Party at historically high rates. Brookings Institution scholar Richard Reeves, the author of a new book 'Of Boys and Men,' joins the show to ask and answer a number of controversial questions: Why do women out-achieve men throughout education? Why are men dropping out of the labor force? Why can't Democrats win the male vote? And what would a progressive and positive vision of masculinity look like? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Reeves Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the science of self-talk—and how our relationship to our own inner monologue can become toxic. Psychologist Ethan Kross joins the show to explain his work on emotion regulation, his book 'Chatter' on the science of negative self-talk, why the ability to have an inner monologue can be a kind of superpower, and how to harness it. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_.Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ethan Kross Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While the broader economy is almost certainly not in a recession, the U.S. housing market is facing a painful reset. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation, the most rate-sensitive sector of the economy—which is housing—is taking it on the chin. Today's guest, Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, breaks down the queasy state of the U.S. housing market, the prospect of a correction, what nationwide falling housing prices will mean for the broader economy, the global synchronized decline in housing, and how China's extremely bizarre year is affecting our economy. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Mark Zandi Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2015, 193 world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to end poverty, fight inequality, and stop climate change by 2030. Seven years in, the world is on track to achieve almost none of those goals, according to a new report from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. But the world really is getting better, the founder and philanthropist Bill Gates tells Derek in this episode. Around the globe, poverty, hunger, and child mortality rates are falling. Income, health care coverage, and lifespans are growing. Bill and Derek talk about the “best news in the world,” why genetics is the most exciting domain in all of science, and how Gates is helping to build the future of food in Africa. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Bill Gates Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We're in a new phase of the Ukraine-Russia war. Paul Poast of the University of Chicago returns to the podcast to break down Ukraine's extraordinary counteroffensive. He explains why this counterattack is reminiscent of D-Day, why President Vladimir Putin continues to struggle to achieve his objectives, and whether the end of the war could be within sight. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Poast Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hours before the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Derek talked to Duncan Weldon, the Britain economics correspondent at The Economist, about the UK's political and economic challenge. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices soaring across Europe, but few countries have it worse than the UK, where inflation skyrocketed past 10 percent and the Bank of England projects a deep and lasting recession. This comes after a 15-year period of utter economic stagnation, Brexit, and the clown show of Boris Johnson. How did the UK, the birthplace of modern capitalism and the industrial revolution, become such an economic and political disaster? And will the queen's death affect the nation's trajectory? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Duncan Weldon Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Students are going back to school this month. But according to many news sources, there won't be nearly enough teachers to greet them. The Washington Post has warned of a “catastrophic teacher shortage.” ABC World News Tonight called it a new “growing crisis,” and the Wall Street Journal warned of a “dog-eat-dog” scramble to hire underqualified instructors. Heather Schwartz, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, explains why she thinks the "national teacher shortage" narrative is overblown, why declining teacher morale is a real story, and what's really happening in American public education today. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Heather Schwartz Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Earlier this year, it appeared that Democrats were going to get destroyed in the midterms. Joe Biden's approval rating was in the toilet, inflation was raging, and everything was going wrong. It wouldn't have been historically shocking if Democrats lost seats in November. The party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, thanks in part to the electorate's preference for balance. But then something weird happened. Joe Biden's polls went up. And up. And up. Republican Senate nominees starting flailing across the country. Today, Democrats are favored to keep the Senate, and they have doubled their odds of holding the House. How did this happen? FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver joins the podcast to explain the big picture and analyze the most fascinating individual races, from Pennsylvania to Ohio. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nate Silver Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The level of student debt in this country represents a massive policy error. But is forgiving up to $20,000 of student debt really the best way to help low-income Americans, or fix the nation's education-financing problems? The Atlantic's Jerusalem Demsas joins Derek to discuss the student loan forgiveness debate and weigh the positives and negatives of Biden's controversial new policy. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jerusalem Demsas Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the entertainment and media industry’s tumultuous summer, the streaming wars, a come-to-Jesus moment for movie theaters, and a dramatic revamp at CNN—which tells a lot about the state of the news industry. My guest is Matt Belloni, host of the Ringer podcast 'The Town' and a founding partner at Puck News. He tells us what he’s hearing from his deep industry sources about the future of the blockbuster, the demise of the romantic comedy, the purge at HBO Max, and the murky path forward for Netflix. He also indulges me as I try to think of restaurant analogies for all of the major streaming companies as they try to differentiate themselves in a crowded field. (If you're not familiar with the amenities of the Tri-State area, this might be a good time to look up "Wawa.") If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matt Belloni Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The economist Raj Chetty has spent much of the last decade trying to answer a very big question: What happened to the American Dream? In 1940, a child born into the average American household had a 92 percent chance of making more money than his or her parents. But in the last half century, something has gone wrong. A child born in 1980 had just a 50 percent chance of surpassing her parents’ income. So, in 40 years, earning more than your parents went from being a near certainty to no better than a coin flip. Marshaling enormous data sets in extremely creative ways, Chetty has shown that our chances of moving up in the world are exquisitely sensitive to where we grow up. In some cities, like Minneapolis, the American Dream seems to be very much alive. In other places, the poor are trapped in poverty for generations. So, the trillion-dollar question here is: If some neighborhoods in America are like Miracle-Gro for opportunity, what are the active ingredients? What makes a place special? In today's episode, Chetty gives listeners a new vocabulary to think about success and inequality in America, with ideas like "father presence," "friending bias," and "Lost Einsteins." If you’d like to see a literal map of American inequality built with Chetty’s data, I would encourage you for this episode alone to go multi-media and visit www.socialcapital.org to see how your neighborhood fares as an engine of upward mobility. That way, you’ll have a fuller sense of where the American Dream is dying—and what we have to do to bring it back. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Raj Chetty Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bestselling author Chuck Klosterman talks to Derek about the death of the monoculture, how the internet creates cults of fans and anti-fans, and how “hating things” became a mainstream personality trait and a political position. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Chuck Klosterman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I've never before recorded an episode specifically about Donald Trump. I guess I’ve been holding out for the chaos that typically swirls around him to exceed an extremely high bar of freaky nonsense. This week, I am forced to conclude that the bar has been surpassed. The January 6 investigations in D.C. and the New York state business investigation are newsworthy on their own. But last week, federal agents descended on Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private club and Florida home, and came away with a trove of top secret documents and papers. This investigation could implicate the president as an agent of law-breaking espionage. Or it could lead to ... nothing at all. In this episode, the author, CNN analyst, and former government official Juliette Kayyem joins the show to separate fact from speculation and to help us imagine several ways this saga could end. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Juliette Kayyem Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Several years ago, the writer, researcher, and policy advocate Heather McGhee traveled around the country to report on how racism in America holds us back from policies that would benefit everybody. In her book The Sum of Us, she explained how racist fears have made us all worse off. For decades, many voters and politicians have fought against policies that would have gotten them better jobs, better benefits, and more upward mobility—because they were afraid that those policies might also help non-white people, and especially Black people. She made another point that struck me. Progressives sometimes talk about racism in a way that is pretty helpful for their causes. “Progressives often end up talking about race relations through a prism of competition—every advantage for whites, mirrored by a disadvantage for people of color,” she wrote. “The task ahead, then, is to unwind this idea of a fixed quantity of prosperity and replace it with what I’ve come to call Solidarity Dividends: gains available to everyone when they unite across racial lines, in the form of higher wages, cleaner air, and better-funded schools.” Today’s guest is Heather McGhee. In this episode she talks about her new podcast The Sum of Us; the indelible metaphor of a drained pool in Alabama; how progressives talk about race; and why many laws today that might not seem explicitly racist still sustain racial inequality. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Heather McGhee Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last year, somebody explained the problem of climate change to me with a metaphor that I’ve never been able to forget. They said: Imagine a bathtub. The bathtub is the planet’s atmosphere. The faucet is on full blast and it’s quickly filling with water. The gushing faucet represents every source of global carbon emissions, from "Big Agriculture" and energy companies to cars and cow farts. The water is carbon itself. The challenge of climate change mitigation is straightforward: Stop the water from filling the tub, spilling over the edge, and destroying the planet. There are a lot of environmentalists and federal policies that focus on one part of the picture. They want to turn the tap to reduce emissions. This is what wind, solar, and geothermal energy does. This is what electric cars do. It is an absolutely essential goal. But a very full tub can still overflow even with a slower-dripping faucet. So we need to think bigger to save the world. We need a plan that goes beyond the faucet. We need to drain water from the basin by pulling the plug at the bottom of the tub—that is, to suck a huge amount of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and flush them away. So, how do you pull the plug? In the last few years, I’ve become very interested in a technology called carbon removal—and especially direct air capture. Imagine, basically, a giant factory that pulls carbon from the atmosphere and buries it. This technology is still incredibly expensive. In August 2022, it is not remotely close to being a global solution to climate change. But there is a chance it may be the most important technology of the 2020s and 2030s, if you understand the problem of the tub, the water, the faucet, and the plug. Today’s guest is Giana Amador. She is the co-founder and policy director of Carbon180, an interdisciplinary organization devoted to carbon-removal technologies. In this episode, she explains how different carbon removal technology works; why there are a million carbon removal plants all over the planet already; the technology and cost problems of vacuuming the atmosphere; and why some people think this technology won’t ever work in the first place. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Giana Amador Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In our second "Curiosity Corner" mailbag, Derek takes your burning questions. He breaks down the myths around how monkeypox spreads, and blasts public health officials for not being more specific about who is most affected. He explains how, while millennials face an affordability crisis in developed countries, they might not want to trade their global generation for any previous period in history. And he answers a listener who asks whether we should fear population collapse more than we fear overpopulation. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why does it seem like the old is eating the new in pop culture? This year, the song of the summer is arguably Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill”—which was released in 1985. It was launched by the most-watched global TV show of the summer, 'Stranger Things'—an homage to the 1980s. In movies, the biggest hit of the season is 'Top Gun: Maverick'—a sequel to the 1986 film. The '80s was four decades ago! The triumph of nostalgia and familiarity in culture is deeper than one summer. The five biggest movies of this year are the second 'Top Gun,' the second 'Doctor Strange', the sixth 'Jurassic Park', the 14th Batman-related film, and the fifth 'Despicable Me'. Amazing original films, like 'Everything Everywhere All At Once', show up here and there, but as far as slam dunk blockbusters go, the last decade has suffered from a new movie curse. There's a new music curse, too. Total music consumption is rising across album sales, track purchases, and streaming. But consumption of new music is down. The entire growth in music is happening in so-called catalog music, or older songs. What's happening here? Today’s guest is Ted Gioia. We talk about his viral essay “Is old music killing new music?”, the dearth of young stars in Hollywood, and the rise of risk-aversion in American culture and business. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ted Gioia Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“Every few years, American politics astonishes you.” That’s how The Atlantic journalist Robinson Meyer began his report on the Democrats' new climate deal, which would invest record-breaking sums in clean energy infrastructure. Yes, this is still just a bill. It could be revised. But in a summer of climate doom—record breaking heat, droughts, fires in Europe—we are looking at an extraordinary leap forward. So what’s in the deal? What would it actually do? And how could it realistically transform the world? Today’s guest is Robinson Meyer, and in this mini episode we break down the bill and explain why it is, to quote the president, a big f*&%ing deal. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robinson Meyer Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that GDP dropped for the second consecutive quarter, fueling fears that the economy is in a recession. Today's guest is Austan Goolsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. In today’s episode, we talk about the most important details from the GDP report, investigate the curious case of America’s plummeting productivity, and talk about why the question "Are we in a recession?" is so annoyingly hard to answer.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Austan Goolsbee Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today is the second half of our special two-parter on the state of crypto. Yesterday’s theme was the case against. Today we debate the case for. In the last few weeks, use-cases have become a popular trope in the big crypto debate. Crypto has tens of thousands of people working with dozens of billions of dollars on building new technology. And I think it’s fair to ask: What have they built that is better than the status quo? What, as Monty Python might ask, has blockchain ever done for us? Today’s guest is Packy McCormick. Packy is the popular author of the Not Boring newsletter. In this episode, we debate use-cases for crypto, talk about whether major products are just Ponzi schemes, and discuss whether all the money sloshing around Web3 has subtly distorted the market and hurt the space. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Packy McCormick Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we have the first in a two-part series on lessons from the crypto crash. Crypto, also known as Web3, also known as blockchain-based technologies, remains the weirdest space I’ve ever reported on. I’ve never learned so much about a topic where there were people I trusted roughly equally, whose intelligence I trusted roughly equally, coming to completely opposite opinions. People I consider brilliant think this is the wave of the future. Others are fairly positive that the bulk of this world is a giant Ponzi scheme that’s even worse than most people realize.Today's guest is Molly Wood, a financial journalist turned venture capitalist who also hosts the podcast 'This Week in Startups.' I would summarize Molly’s case against crypto in three main points: It is a double-enemy of the environment—an energy-intensive speculation that pulls money and talent from climate technology. It is an unregulated bonanza of investor shenanigans—Molly explains why the very structure of crypto tokens invites a kind of Ponzi-scheming dynamic, which deserves our attention. Even if you have nice things to say about crypto—and we do have nice things to say about it—there’s a strong case to be made that the promises and the grandiosity is wildly out of line with the actual use cases. The timing on this episode feels right. Last week, several employees of the crypto trading exchange Coinbase were charged with wire fraud, the first insider-trading case involving cryptocurrencies. This is our little podcast trial of crypto. Today, the prosecution. Tomorrow, the defense. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Molly Wood Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world is kind of a mess right now. There is a big, bloody, awful war between Russia and Ukraine, which has hugely disrupted global trade, especially in commodities like oil, wheat, and natural gas. Europe is on fire, and the euro is crashing. Boris Johnson is out as the U.K.’s prime minister, and Mario Draghi has resigned as Italy’s prime minister. There are tremors in China, as the world’s second-largest economy fumbles through a ridiculous COVID-Zero policy. In Sri Lanka, crowds stormed the presidential palace after an economic crisis. In Japan, a former prime minister was assassinated. In Turkey and El Salvador, inflation and kooky economic policy has led these countries to the brink. Is this just random chaos, or is there a deeper story to tell? Today’s guest is Ian Bremmer. Ian is a political scientist and the founder of Eurasia Group and GZero media. He is also the author of several books, including his latest: The New York Times bestseller 'The Power of Crisis.' He takes me on a geopolitical catastrophe tour. In the end, we consider the meaning of this moment in history—and why this feels like the end of an era and the beginning of something new. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ian Bremmer Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world is on fire. In southern Europe, wildfires are streaking from Portugal to Greece. In the U.K., airport runways melted as temperatures exceeded 103 degrees for the first time on record. In the U.S. this week, about one in five Americans are living in a place that will be even hotter than the U.K.’s historic mark. And what is our government doing about it? Pretty close to nothing. But if you look behind these headlines, there’s something very interesting happening. In the past decade, the price of solar electricity has declined by 90 percent. The efficiency of lithium-ion batteries has increased by 90 percent. Per-capita emissions in the U.S. have declined by a quarter since 2005, falling all the way to levels not seen since 1960. These are technological revolutions worth building on. But they will require that Americans get over their allergy to new construction. And build. Today’s guest is David Wallace-Wells, a writer for The New York Times and the author of the bestseller 'The Uninhabitable Earth.' In this episode, we talk about the future of a hot world, the science of heat, the depressing state of climate policy in Washington, the more hopeful state of climate technology and global adaptation, the end of old-fashioned environmentalism, and the future of a new climate movement. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Wallace-Wells Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Well, that escalated quickly. Let's review, shall we? In January, Elon Musk started buying a bunch of Twitter stock. In February, he kept buying. In March, he owned about 5 percent of the company. In April, he offered to buy Twitter for $44 billion. In May, he tweeted a poop emoji. In June, his net worth crashed. In July, he tried to back out of the deal—and Twitter countersued. It seems very clear from the company's lawsuit that Twitter is prepared to take this all the way, possibly to even force Musk to acquire the company against his will. Big picture, Twitter is in an incredibly strange position. The company's lawsuit portrays Musk as if he's a wayward, flighty, bad-faith grown toddler. But Twitter is also is trying to force this very same wayward, flighty, bad-faith grown toddler to be the proud owner of Twitter. “You’re a jerk, and I hate you, now marry me!" is a weird message to send, even if it makes sense for the Twitter board to pursue this strategy, within the logic of shareholder capitalism. So, who's got the best argument? How will this thing end? Today's guest is Boston College Law School professor Brian Quinn. We do a deep dive into the documents of interest here—what Musk is saying, what Twitter is saying, and who’s got the strongest case. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Brian Quinn Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Will Netflix be the king of streaming in five years? What's the biggest threat to dethrone it: Apple, Disney, or HBO? Are movie theaters back for real? How has the pandemic changed the film industry? Is TikTok the biggest arch-villain in entertainment? Where do hits come from? What is the metaverse, and will I like living in it? Derek has a lot of questions. His guests—Bloomberg entertainment reporter Lucas Shaw, and author of 'THE METAVERSE' Matthew Ball—have many answers. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Lucas Shaw and Matthew Ball Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek has so many thoughts on Elon Musk's bizarre attempted breakup with Twitter—and what comes next—that he has to enumerate them. In this episode, he goes through five reasons Elon is trying to wriggle out of this deal and three ways this saga will end. Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The question everybody's asking on cable news right now is whether we're in a recession. I think there's an even more important question to ask: Are we at peak inflation? If inflation U-turns, it means the Fed won’t have to keep jacking up interest rates, won’t have to keep destroying demand, and won’t have to indefinitely pump the U.S. economy with tranquilizing drugs to break the fever. I believe peak inflation is right here, right now. In retail, Target and Gap are slashing prices on inventory. In the car market, used car sales are falling. In electronics, the microchip shortage looks like it’s easing. In international shipping, freight rates across the Pacific are declining. And most importantly, the price of oil, metals, wheat, and corn are all falling. Oil prices are falling really, really fast—and that tends to mean that gas prices will follow. Today’s guest is Noah Smith, the economic writer and author of the newsletter Noahpinion. We talk about the great disinflation, where it’s happening, why it’s happening, what it means for the future of the U.S. economy and politics. This episode was in high demand in our mailbox. And as always, keep it coming. Send your feedback and episode ideas to [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Noah Smith Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the story of the moment—gun violence. There’s been a surge of violent shootings, mass shootings, and gun-related murders in the last few years. Today, Derek investigates a mystery behind this surge of violence: Why are the police so bad at solving murders? According to FBI statistics, in the 1960s nearly 100 percent of all murders were "cleared" by police, typically by arrest. In 2020, the clearance rate hit an all-time low of nearly 50 percent. Today, half of the murders in the United States go unsolved. Why? Today’s guest is Jeff Asher, a crime analyst, writer, and cofounder of AH Datalytics, which analyzes data for local government agencies like police departments. We talk about seven possible explanations for this alarming trend before settling on one particular explanation that's probably the most important. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jeff Asher Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In last week's instant reaction pod, Derek said he thought abortion pills were one of the most fascinating and important aspects of the end of the era of Roe. In this episode, he goes deeper into how this new technology could change the abortion debate and national politics. Abortion pills that weren't in use 50 years ago are popular, common, safe, hard to track, and legal in more than half the country. Dozens of conservative states are moving to outlaw most abortions, including medication abortions, but banning pills is going to be very tricky. After all, it’s one thing to shut down a clinic with one address. Banning a pill that you can order online? Banning a pill that goes in the mail? That is much harder. And the lengths to which states might have to go to surveil packages—or to spy on women’s digital activities in order to track down pill buyers—will be invasions of privacy that make a lot of Americans uncomfortable, even those who want to reduce legal abortions. This is the next battleground of the abortion culture war: the pills war. Today’s return guest is Margot Sanger-Katz of the New York Times. Margot explains the basics of abortion pills, and how they’ll change the abortion debate forever. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Margot Sanger-Katz Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I feel like the theme of this podcast recently has been that everything is going off the rails: the Supreme Court, inflation, oil prices, air travel snafus. Take the economy, for example. My theory for the past few months has been that the odds of a recession are nervously high. But when I start feeling myself become a bit ideological, it’s always worth asking: What if I’m wrong? So what I want to execute in this episode is a bit of a zag. Today's guest, Conor Sen, an economic columnist for Bloomberg, explains why he thinks this economy isn't nearly as troubled as the headlines suggest. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Conor Sen Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We react to the landmark Supreme Court decision and explain how it could affect the future of the court, national politics, fertility and family planning, state law, corporate policy, and more. To further explain the implications of this decision we re-air an interview we did seven weeks ago with Margot Sanger-Katz when news of the Supreme Court leak first broke. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Margot Sanger-Katz Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Lately, it feels like we’re surrounded by systems and industries that aren’t working the way they should. There's an oil shortage, and a baby formula shortage, and a used car shortage, and a microchip shortage. Now, here comes the airline industry shortage. This past weekend, thousands of flights were cancelled because airlines didn't have enough pilots, grounds crew, or planes. People were stranded in airports for eight hours or longer. JetBlue, American, and Delta collectively canceled about 9-10 percent of their flights—between five and 10 times higher than their historical average. And some experts say that if you’re planning to fly at all this summer, things will only get worse. How did this happen? When will it end? Today’s guest is Scott Keyes. He is the founder of Scott's Cheap Flights, a newsletter and business with more than 2 million members. We talk about the origins of the crisis, the economics of the airline industry, and why the decline of business travel is a cannonball in a lake whose ripple effects are wreaking all sorts of havoc. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Scott Keyes Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Expensive energy is an economic, psychological, and political scourge. Nominally, gas prices are at a record high. Adjusted for inflation, they could break the all-time record if they rise just another 35 cents. We should be desperately curious to solve this problem; so, that’s what this episode is all about. Today’s guest is Skanda Amarnath, the executive director at Employ America, which has quickly become one of my very favorite sources of research and commentary on economics. He is also the coauthor of an ingenious plan to increase oil capacity in a way that could reasonably bring down gas prices. This episode gets pretty deep into the weeds of policy and oil markets. But it was one of the most educational conversations I’ve had on this show. And I hope you find it similarly stimulating. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Skanda Amarnath Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Most news is all about the immediate present. For instance, everything that is happening in the economy right now could be a historical anecdote in five years. But sometimes, norms change—and they stay changed for decades. I think the remote work revolution is just that sort of a paradigm shift. Here's a stat that should blow your mind: Office occupancy across the U.S. is still just 43 percent of its pre-pandemic high. That means that white-collar offices have had a worse recovery than basically any other economic category—worse than restaurants, bars, stadiums, and even movie theaters. But who is remote work actually working for? What are offices good for? And how will the remote work revolution change the way we relate to each other and the places we live? Today’s guest is Julia Hobsbawm, the author of 'The Nowhere Office,' a new book about the remote work revolution that combines history and reporting to ask a big, beautiful philosophical question: Is remote work making our lives better, or worse? Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Julia Hobsbawm Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a huge week for economic and finance news. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, its biggest move since 1994. Derek breaks down what this means for your wallet and the future of the economy. Then he brings on The New York Times' Kevin Roose for a conversation about the end of the "everything boom." For the last decade-plus, just about every asset class has gone to the moon: stocks, housing, crypto. That era is over. But where did the everything boom come from? How did it change our lives, from cheap Uber rides to risky crypto projects? And what does it mean that this era is coming to a close? Derek and Kevin also talk about their idea of a "millennial consumer subsidy"—the notion that for many years venture capitalists subsidized ride-share and delivery companies in a way that was unsustainable and not all that great for the people behind the wheel. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Roose Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Inflation is the story that everybody keeps missing. In 2020, many people didn't expect inflation to rise. Wrong. In 2021, many expected inflation to be brief or "transitory." Wrong. Last month, many expected inflation to peak. wrong. In May, inflation reached its highest level in more than four decades. But there’s a bigger story to tell here. What are the subtler inflation numbers telling us about the future of the economy? And is the media being too pessimistic about the economy given how strong the labor market has been coming out of the pandemic? To answer those questions, Derek welcomes Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. As you’ll hear, Wolfers is brilliant, straightforward, and incredibly un-shy about telling Derek when he thinks he's full of it. If you think Derek is full of it, or if you would like to drop a more complimentary line, send your notes, questions, and curiosities to [email protected] Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Justin Wolfers Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about two California elections and the message they sent to the rest of the country. In San Francisco, progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled by voters after years of complaints about the rise of disorder, shoplifting, and homelessness in the city. In Los Angeles, Republican-turned-Democrat billionaire Rick Caruso had a strong showing running as a crimefighter in the L.A. mayoral primary. In the late 1970s, politics was defined by two topics: crime and inflation. Well, look around today: Various measures of crime are weighing on people, and inflation is near its 40-year high. Are we stepping into a time machine that’s taking us back to the '70s? To answer that question, we have journalist and author Ron Brownstein, a CNN senior political analyst, writer for 'The Atlantic,' and author of the book Rock Me on the Water: 1974, the Year Los Angeles Transformed Movies, Music, TV, and Politics. So if we are headed back to the '70s in a newly waxed maroon Pontiac Grand Am, this is the guy who can tell us what it means. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ron Brownstein Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to Curiosity Corner! In our first ever all-mailbag episode, Derek answers a Republican’s question about gun control, explains how American companies became so political, revisits a controversial Amber Heard episode, and explains how the podcast comes together. Finally, in response to a couple that requested a wedding-day video, Derek veers out of the news lane and offers some relationship advice. If you’d like your questions answered on this show, send your first name and city or state to [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Texas school shooting is part of a grisly ritual in American life. A tragedy, followed by mourning, followed by inaction, followed by several months, followed by another tragedy. What can be done? What WILL be done? This episode isn’t about false hope. It’s about information. The New York Times’s German Lopez, who has been reporting on guns and gun control policy for many years, joins the podcast to answer as many questions as we can fit into a show, including: Why are school shootings becoming more common in the U.S.? What are the most successful gun control policies at our disposal? Why doesn’t Washington ever do anything about this problem? What happens now? Oh, and Derek will be off next week. New episodes will return in early June! Host: Derek Thompson Guest: German Lopez Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's our first Curiosity Corner podcast! We asked you to tell us what questions you wanted us to answer, and a lot of you had the same thought on your mind: housing. In this podcast, we answer: What's going on with the U.S. housing market? Is this a bubble? Is it bursting? Why are homes in America so expensive? Why are we so bad at building houses? Why is there so much homelessness in America's richest cities? The Atlantic's Jerusalem Demsas comes on the show to share her theories with Derek, and Derek explains why he thinks every important question about the U.S. housing market has the same fundamental answer: inventory, inventory, inventory. Keep sending your questions at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jerusalem Demsas Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the trial of the century—kind of. The legal showdown between Johnny Depp and Amber Heard has captivated the country, and Derek is a bit confused. Why is everybody talking about this miserable celebrity relationship? Why are so many people obsessed with demonizing Amber Heard? Producer Devon Manze explains to Derek why she thinks the trial has conquered the news cycle, and The Atlantic's Kaitlyn Tiffany explains why the internet hates Amber, and what it says about the future of truth, fandom, and who we are on the internet. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kaitlyn Tiffany Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America's infant formula shortage is very strange and very embarrassing. Nationwide, more than 40 percent of formula is out of stock, and in many states, like Texas and Tennessee, more than half of it is gone. What's going on? The immediate cause is the shutdown of a Michigan plant. But shutdowns and recalls happen all the time, and they rarely cause a national crisis like this. Economist Scott Lincicome says the real culprit lies in America's trade and regulatory policy. He explains how we got here and how we can get back to a rational baby formula policy in America. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Scott Lincicome Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto crashes, rate hikes, recession, fears, and inflation prints: The U.S. economy is in a very bizarre place right now, and Derek needs help explaining it. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson of Ritholz Wealth Management are back on the pod to reconvene the economic roundtable. We play a game of "Finish the Sentence": The single most shocking stock market stat is …? The long-term bull case for crypto is ... ? The worst sign for the US economy is … ? The BEST sign about the US economy is …? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The stock market is absolutely gross right now. Everything is down, except (as loyal listeners know) the CATAN portfolio. Crypto has cratered, growth stocks have been ravaged, and hedge funds are imploding. Why is this happening? Is this Dot-Com Bubble 2.0? And what does it mean for the future of the U.S. economy, investing, and tech? Investor, entrepreneur, and podcaster Jason Calacanis joins the show. He gives us a brief history of the 21st century tech industry, explains why this is like and unlike the summer of 2000, makes some bold predictions about crypto and the economy, and tells us how he's advising young chief executives. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Calacanis Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This might sound like a hot take but it's not: In 50 years, when historians look back on the crazy 2020s, they might point to advances in artificial intelligence as the most important long-term development of our time. We are building machines that can mimic human language, human creativity, and human thought. What will that mean for the future of work, morality, and economics? The bestselling author Steven Johnson joins the podcast to talk about the most exciting and scary ideas in artificial intelligence and an article he wrote for The New York Times Magazine about the frontier of AI. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Steven Johnson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sometimes, people ask “why study history?” How about this: American history is the weapon being used to strike down Roe Vs Wade. In the leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision that would overturn Roe, conservative Justice Samuel Alito writes that Roe invented a right to abortion that cannot be found in early American history. Is he right? And what’s the true history of abortion in America? That’s the subject of today’s episode—a fast, factual guide to how we got to this moment, reviewing the 300-year history of abortion in America in just 30 minutes. Today’s guests are two historians of abortion in American—Mary Ziegler, a visiting prof at Harvard, and Karissa Haugeberg, assistant professor at Tulane University. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email me at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Karissa Haugeberg and Mary Ziegler Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Supreme Court is poised to end the era of Roe. In a leaked draft of a majority opinion, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito struck down Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that guaranteed constitutional protections of abortion rights. What would happen to abortion rights in its absence? Which states would shutter their clinics? Which states might expand protections? How does the growth of nationwide access to abortion pills fit into all of this? And why was the draft leaked in the first place? This podcast answers all of those questions and more, with two guests: Melissa Murray is a professor of law at New York University, and Margot Sanger-Katz is a domestic correspondent for 'The New York Times.' Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Margot Sanger-Katz and Melissa Murray Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices