Tracking Corona In Australia: Is a Lockdown Imminent?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDUhJaU_z-s In this video we look at the data and growth rates behind the corona virus in Australia and other countries and use it to predict where Australia will likely be in 2 weeks and if a lockdown is imminent. Corona Virus Data Corona Virus Exponential Growth Video More on COVID-19 Growth Transcription: Ryan 0:00hi i'm ryan from onproperty and today is tuesday march 24 2020 and in today's episode i want to do something really differently usually i talk about property or personal finance today i want to talk about the Coronavirus and growth rates and how this actually may play out in australia and we can look at the data and look at what has happened in other countries and actually try to predict what is likely to happen in australia based on the measures that are being taken right now so this situation is obviously very overwhelming for a lot of people people are starting to lose their jobs the line and center link is extremely long which is sad to see a lot of my friends and people that i know have lost their jobs so it's a really hard time but what i found is that by looking at the data by understanding the growth rates by looking at other countries we can get some visibility into what this may look like in australia that helps reduce our overwhelm helps us to deal with the realistic situation and what actually may happen whether we may be going into lockdown or not i do think we will and we can just start to see this grab a hold of this information and then obviously make decisions for our own safety for the safety of our friends and loved ones in the community and also for our finances as well so we're going to be going through a bunch of numbers it's a bit nerdy today but hopefully you'll be able to see these trends understand the basics behind them which can give you a great view into the future and what may happen obviously i don't have a crystal ball so it's all speculation but i started knowing that this was going to be a really big issue in australia two weeks ago when i saw this video on COVID-19 and its exponential growth rate now two weeks ago in australia we were not in a bad situation people were laughing at me when i was talking about that we're going to need to go into lockdown soon they'll like you're just being anxious because i get anxious from time to time but i saw this and what this showed is that recorded COVID-19 cases outside mainland china every single day you're seeing a growth rate of about 15 to 25% every single day day after day now that is important the growth rate is extremely important because if you're starting with 100 people that means the next day you're going to have 25 new cases or 125 in total the day after that you're going to have 125 times by another 25% so 125 times by 1.25 which means you're going to end up with 156 new cases and then it goes up and up and up once you get started getting up to 1000 cases then you're getting you know you're getting 250 new cases every single day then you get up to 10,000 you're getting 2500 cases every single day so while it starts small that growth trend leads to big and devastating things as things progress i also saw this part of the video where they talk about australia versus japan at the time and that you could say that australia is doing 100 times better than japan however another way to look at this is actually that australia is one month behind japan and if you look at the growth rates of australia we are around that 25% mark so what we're going to do is look at this website which is well domino's dot info forward slash Coronavirus so i'll link up to this as well as this video down below and we can start to say the growth rate in australia new cases in australia as well as in the world so this shows the world but if we scroll down we can start to look at australia and we can start to see the growth rate now it doesn't tell us the growth rate you have to kind of calculate that yourself but as you can say corona cases in australia as of recording this on tuesday night and now over 2000 people when i watched that video on march 9 it was at 93 people and that was when people were laughing at me and now pretty much everyone's keeping their kids home from school people are losing their jobs businesses are shutting down you know it's only going to get more intense from here and so what we can see in this graph is this exponential growth trend where each day we're getting more and more cases than the next day if we scroll down we can see daily new cases and you can see this growth in daily new cases so we had one day where it was less but then jumped up massive but this general trend towards the app of daily new cases and if this isn't reversing then that's a bad sign so we're looking at that growth rate we're looking at the growth of daily news cases to see, okay, is this getting out of control in Australia. And it looks like it is. Another way to look at it is the logarithmic graph, which goes from 10 to 100 for the first bar, then 100 to 1000, then it goes from 1000 to 10,000. Once we go over 10,000, go from 10,000 to 100,000. And if we see a straight line on this graph means we're having exponential growth. And so every day, there's going to be more cases than the next. And as we can see, the graph is going up in a very straight line, which indicates that Yeah, we're in that exponential growth phase. So this is not a great place to be. And I wish I had better information to share with you that social distancing is working, that Australians are doing their part. But I think we're all smart enough to realize that social distancing probably isn't going to be enough, the coffee culture, the beach culture, the fact that people just want to be around people, it's not going to be enough to stop this virus. So what could happen, you know, if we don't do anything to stop this, then this continues going up, it gets extremely severe. And a lot of people die and overwhelm our healthcare system. Now, the government has already shown that it's willing to step in, and to close businesses and things like that, are we going to head for a lockdown and do lock downs actually work? Well, Italy went into lockdown on March 9. So the same day I watched that video when Australia was only at 93 people on the ninth of March evil, he was already at 9000 people. And they have a population about three times our size, maybe two and a half times our size. But they were much further ahead than us at 9000 people on that day. That is when they went into lockdown. Now what is interesting is they say it takes about two weeks of lockdown before you start to see actually results. And you start to see Laura in cases. And if we scroll down to the daily new cases, we can see that on March 9, there was 1797 new cases. And we can see that the new cases grew every single day, up until what was that the 12th day or the 11th day on the 21st at 6557 brand new cases on that day. And we're now only now it's been 13 or 14 days, starting to see your reversal trend where two days in a row, there's actually less cases than the day before. So I've had single days where there's less cases. But then it's always got this growing upward trend when I got two days in a row where there's less cases, and it looks like a downward trend. So we're going to need to watch that. So why is this important? Because if we go from March 9, and where we are there, if Australia goes into lockdown and takes the same measures as Italy, then it's reasonable to expect a similar outcome that we're going to continue to grow for another 11 to 12 days before we start to see a reduction. And even still this reduction 4700 on the ninth only had 1700. So it's still three times the daily new cases that it was when they first went into lockdown. So some pretty serious stuff. And then sorry to be so intense about this. But you know, obviously it's very intense. And there's a lot of people's health at risk. There's a lot of people's jobs and businesses at risk as well. It's also interesting to see that from March 9, we had 9000 cases in Italy. And then over the two weeks in lockdown, it's gone up to around 64,000. So you're basically looking at what is that seven times. So 9060 64,000 divided by 9000. You're looking yet at about seven times what it was when it started. So if Australia went into lockdown today, so we go to the countries, and then we scroll down. And we look at Australia, if we go into lockdown today at 2136 cases 2136 times by seven, then in two weeks, you know we could potentially be at around 15,000 cases. So this is how it gets out of hand and grows so quickly. So do we think Australia's going to locked out we've got that exponential growth curve, which is bad, the growth rates are too fast, which is not good. If we look at another country, which is actually in my opinion, very close to Australia in where they're at is the UK. I kind of think the UK is about one to two days ahead of us. UK today went into lockdown or stay at home or whatever they're calling it says a percentage of their population. So population of England is about 56 million. Okay, so if we look at 6650665 dera divided by what was it how many million 56,000,056 123123 then we can see that it is what percentage of that that's about 1% or 1.1% of the population if we look at australia which is about 25 million and we have about 2100 cases divided by 25 million then we can see that we're at 0.