Property Market Update July 27th 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPZLbtOGPHU A lot has been happening in the Australian Property Market lately and today I wanted to share information from the Property Update article from 27th July 2020. Property Update Article: https://propertyupdate.com.au/australian-property-market/ 0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Changes in Australian Property Prices3:10 - Early market indicators5:05 - New properties for sale and rent5:40 - Rental markets6:25 - Finance activity6:42 - What's happening to property prices9:52 - New property listings and sales11:42 - Vendor discounts and time on market14:25 - Auction clearance rates15:50 - Changes in rents Transcription: Ryan 0:00a lot has been happening in australia and the australian property market since i last recorded an update and i was reading through property updates article on the australian property market update and i thought that this was so interesting that i wanted to go through it with you guys and to share it as well so we can get a better understanding of where the markets at and they also talk about some of the leading indicators and where the market may go so they're saying there's lots of property news and data over the last week obviously we've got that second wave of COVID-19 coming through particularly in victoria will that happen in the other states we're not sure we're going to you know see if that happens but basically if we look at the australian price heatmap here we can say that this week basically the major capital cities everything is down or steady so sydney and melbourne both down a bit brisbane and adelaide held steady perth is down as well month today everything is down or steady within the adelaide being at 0% but sydney and melbourne down 0.7 0.9% brisbane is down less 0.2% perth down 0.6% which i'm finding interesting because perth seemed before COVID to kind of hit the bottom of the market and looked like it was due for a rise but perth obviously continuing to decline if we look since the COVID lockdown so when was that that was march sometime or early april i can't quite remember now seems like a lifetime ago sydney is down 1.4% melbourne is down 3.3% brisbane has held steady adelaide is actually up and perth down 1.8% and then we've got since the melbourne lockdown which is a lot more recently everything's down or steady so where are things at since 2017 maximum so sydney and melbourne peaked in 2017 and then went through 18 months of decline and then went back up in late 2019 so if you bought at the top of 2017 where would you be at sydney and melbourne you'd be down around you know three to 4% sort of range gold coast of brisbane gold coast and adelaide you'd be up but only by a little bit 1.3% 2.4% and then perth you will actually be down 13% since that 2017 so that's actually crazy if you look at the last 12 months you can see how gangbusters sydney and melbourne have gone with 12.4% growth in sydney 9.1% growth in melbourne and solid growth in brisbane gold coast at 4.5% adelaide at 2.3% and perth is down minus 2.6% so yeah i find like this data is really interesting the saying like residential prices are mostly softening since the pandemic sorry about the aeroplane overhead if you can hear that at the moment i'm just parked out on the beach in the van loving working just on the road at the moment but this is what i found interesting as well is early market indicators so this is a number of indicators that could actually give us a clue to what's ahead so obviously we just looked at okay what's happened in the past and that's interesting to look at but what we all want to know is what's coming in the future and it's always you know really hard to predict but there's some leading indicators that can help us to understand what may happen and to give us some clarity on that so they're saying buyer activity edge higher last week as shown by realestate.com they use weekly demand report report for sale search volumes increased 0.1% last week and now minus 2.3% below their recent record high so when was that back in you know late june or maybe it was early july we had record highs in the search volume for properties obviously more searches means more people looking to buy properties for sale so largest increases were in queensland and interestingly the northern territory while the biggest falls were in victoria south australia western australia and tasmania i do worry about hobart hobart had has had such an amazing run for so long i keep looking at it and thinking how long can this actually continue hobart how long can you keep going the dip in western australia you may reflect the fact that demand for new houses appears to be booming since the announcement of the home builder or but that's not captured in this search data the new houses isn't so that's interesting the largest year on year increases for sale search volume have occurred in the ac t at 99.5% western shy of 45.6% while the smallest jumps have been in victoria and south australia but there's mounting evidence that this interest in for sale listings is translating into sales with a data showing an upward trend in transactions alright number two is newly advertised property for sale and rent the following chart shows the change in number of new residential listings in the past seven days over the last week the number of new properties coming on the market has virtually been steady not a bad feat considering the concern about Coronavirus and the number of new properties advertised for sale is at 3.4% over the month showing renewed vendor confidence so that's the thing it's like okay we want properties for sale but you don't want too many to be listed all at once because of too many alyssa that's going to flood the market and decrease prices rental markets okay realestate.com to you tracks the number of rental searches on its portal and it's showing that that is up so we can see that that around march and april that went into the negative growth but since we're coming out in may that is trending upwards year on year change so rent renters are expected to continue to closely monitor what becomes available we may also see more rental stock come online given some tenants will be facing reduce incomes from loss of employment so still not really sure what's going to happen around there number four is finance activity while many australians have been busy getting new loans as you can see from the charts below more than two thirds of these were for refinancing existing loans rather than for new property purchases so obviously people refinancing down to lower interest rates in order to save money so that's not surprising they're saying what's happening to property prices capital city home value changes weekly changed monthly change year to date change all the weekly is down or steady or the monthly is down or steady you know 12 months we already talked about that sort of stuff but considering all the negative market sentiment capital city property values have held up pretty well while property values are slipping a little one has to dig deeper into the numbers to see the full picture there are certain segments of our market holding their value as well with a shortage of a great homes and investment properties compared to the numbers of buyers meaning that property values in certain locations are creeping up that's it like that's really important to think about as well is while this gives a like overall city picture of how things are going it doesn't give a suburb by suburb pitch out and you've got some suburbs or some types of properties within certain suburbs where there's a lot of demand and the values of those properties are going up or he's got other suburbs that are bringing these averages down and dragging them down so they can still be good opportunities even in markets that are pretty steady or in declines like we're looking at the moment there is a flight to quality significant policy supports the earlier reopening of the economy have met the various worst case scenarios a 20 to 30% price falls that some of the common economists have been touting seem likely however i still see property values falling a little further as unemployment will remain high consumer confidence will continue to languish and immigration will fall i would probably agree with that and i would have a similar sentiment to that is that i would think that property prices would continue to slip will they slip as much as they did in 2017 2018 going down by 50 15% in sydney and melbourne i didn't know if we're going to see that much of a fall especially in places like perth that's already seen so much decline or brisbane that's been steady for like 13 years now and hasn't really grown so don't say massive declines in the future but obviously i don't have a crystal ball but i think what's going to be really interesting and something that ben has been talking about as well is that when this does eventually blow over not blow over but you know when we've got when we've got COVID under control when there's a vaccine out there when the borders reopen and life starts to go back to normal is there going to be an influx of immigration in order to make up for the last immigration that we've had over the last couple of years so while we may not see a lot of immigration over the next couple of years the government does want to grow the population of australia and does want to do that through immigration and it can easily just bump up the figures to the amount of people that are allowed to immigrate each year so will that happen in one year or in two years or whenever the borders reopen again and could that see a delayed surge in pricing so