Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

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Tian Yang, CEO of quant research platform Variant Perception, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the benign macro regime might shift in the back half of 2026 should the Iran conflict not produce a prolonged shock. Yang also touches on how that roadmap would likely be altered by a prolonged conflict, the case for a manufacturing recovery, jobless growth, and peak market euphoria in the summer that could ultimately be marked by the generational IPO of SpaceX.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Summer Peak Setup

00:54 Benign Macro Regime

02:54 Iran Energy Shock Risks

04:19 US Versus Rest World

06:41 War Duration Scenarios

10:08 Energy Rotation Signals

10:55 Allocation Engine Explained

13:04 CAIA.nxt

14:00 Fast Calls Repriced

18:44 Historical Cycle Analogies

24:08 Jobless Growth Framework

27:42 Shifting Investment Drivers

29:48 Fed Credibility Tightrope

34:35 Housing Disinflation Drivers

38:58 AI Jobs Debate

39:10 Valuation And Terminal Value

42:28 Capital Cycle Framework

46:31 Semis Versus Software

47:22 Regional Banks Inflection

50:06 Sovereignty Investing Thesis

56:20 Energy and Reindustrialization

59:26 Gold as Risk Off

01:01:20 Conclusion