Market Depth

To wrap up the first week of a new quarter following a tumultuous month of March, Weston Nakamura reviews policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause-and-assess, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s unexpected hawkish 50 basis point hike. Weston also discusses a big development out of Samsung’s preliminary earnings, in which they had announced production cuts in memory chips, and the wide scale implications to the industry worldwide. Finally, Weston gives his initial takeaways right off the heels of retiring Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s farewell press conference - in which the outgoing monetary figurehead had some surprising final words before handing the keys to a new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, who begins his tenure on Monday. We end with a clip of Governor Kuroda speaking during a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20th, 2023. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Following up from the last episode of Market Depth “The Most Critical Month for the Bank of Japan is Here” - Weston Nakamura provides a deep dive on currencies, namely the yen. Weston gives a background on what drives the yen directionally and explains why the currency strengthens despite the Bank of Japan’s endless, record-sized bond buying. In addition, Weston reveals his own non-consensus take on the outcome of the upcoming April Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new and unknown Governor Ueda (a viewpoint which may surprise many). Lastly, Weston discusses some unconventional trade ideas and position structures to play the biggest macro catalyst of the month. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special edition episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura presents what lies ahead for a historic and critical month of April 2023 in global financial markets, as leadership change at the Bank of Japan will see the end of Governor Kuroda, the last major central banker of the QE era, and the start of little known incoming Governor Ueda. Weston does a deep dive into the state of Japan investors - the world's largest foreign capital allocators, and their behavioral traits. As uncertainty, volatility and risk builds up by the day as time closes in on Ueda's first meeting as the new BOJ head at the end of April- Weston also gives his personal views on what lies ahead for Bank of Japan and the ensuing market impact. Weston also gives a quick take on the Reserve Bank of Australia, who decided to pause their rate hiking and assess the "Long and variable lags," joining their policy leading peers at Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea "on hold," and implications for the Fed and ECB. Additionally, Weston makes parallels between OPEC's surprise production cut that sent crude oil prices soaring, and the Bank of Japan - the "OPEC of global fixed income." -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To wrap up what was arguably one of the most critical and history shaping months in global markets, Weston Nakamura takes a cross-asset dive into the month of March 2023. What was really behind the collapse in global bank shares? Why are rates behaving with such extreme levels of record volatility? What does the Bank of Japan have to do with all of this? Weston provides a different angle and explanation apart from narratives of US and European bank failures for what really happened in markets this month, and what lies ahead. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China. In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets. Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this week, as well as his read on no-trade JGBs potentially signaling the end of the recent rate volatility. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode of Market Depth, Weston discusses yet another hedge fund taking big losses, $15bn AUM Rokos Capital Management, due to unprecedented swings in front-end rates. Weston also gives further perspective as to why these hedge fund positioning blow-ups matter - as their trading behavior is both causing, and is the consequence of extreme levels of heightened volatility. Furthermore, these fund implosions may very well be distorting market signaling, and our reading of "what markets are telling us" - and that perhaps the massive dispersion between the Fed's guidance and market pricing may not be as wide as it seems. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Following the initial launch of the Market Depth podcast and a few episodes in, Weston Nakamura unveils his new “trading jacket,” and explains the concept of how the making of each episode of Market Depth is approached. Weston then discusses Japan’s February CPI reading, which came down sharply for the first decline in 5 months - and the impact of the governments energy subsidies on inflation. Finally, Weston examines bond flow data to follow up on his previous episodes explaining the record volatility in rates, as well as price action drivers of the yen. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Heading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late. Weston also flags Hong Kong’s HIBOR rate spike, and the Turkish Lira breaking into new lows. Finally, Weston discusses FOMC market expectations, and his views on the post-Fed meeting trading environment. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Market Depth: Monday March 20, 2023 After a historic and last-minute deal of UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Weston Nakamura examines the first market reaction out of Asia. With rates continuing to fall alongside Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders getting wiped out, it is difficult to discern if macro or bottom up forces may be influencing global bank shares' directional movements. Weston therefore takes a look at specifically HSBC and Standard Chartered stocks listed in Hong Kong for a market read on the weekend's developments. Weston also points to JPY futures as a contributing factor for gold to break above $2000. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Market Depth: Friday March 17, 2023 -- Amidst turmoil in the US regional bank sector, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a week of highly unusual (if not record setting) price swings across asset classes, including non-US megacap banks indices in Europe and Japan, Credit Suisse shares, bonds and CDS divergences, and DM rates markets - specifically US 2Y Treasury yields, German 2Y bund yields, and Japan 10Y JGB yields. Weston ties all of the erratic movements occurring in assets that should otherwise be liquid and stable back to a common theme - years of heavy-handed central bank interventions that have altered, if not damaged, market functioning and stability, resulting in volatility and illiquidity that only exposes itself in real time moments of crisis. For the most extreme example of this dynamic currently underway, Weston points towards the JGB market, for which the Bank of Japan's unprecedented intervention has killed market functioning, as a potential look into the future for the other sovereign rate markets. For further insights- Weston discusses the Bank of Japan and their impact on the JGB market in depth in the previous episode of Market Depth, as well as On The Margin with Michael Ippolito. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this debut episode of Market Depth, Tokyo- based Weston Nakamura takes a deep dive look into Haruhiko Kuroda’s decade-long tenure as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, who leaves his post as the most consequential major central banker in the modern era. Governor Kuroda was appointed (then re-appointed for a rare second term) by Prime Minister Abe in 2013, specifically to carry out radically aggressive monetary easing measures- for which Kuroda delivered upon from his very first policy meeting with QQE. A decade later, Kuroda certainly has delivered- perhaps even overdelivered on the “easing without backing down” promise by conducting the world’s largest and now increasingly controversial experiment in monetary policy easing: yield curve control. As Kuroda now hands the keys over to a new governor, the Bank of Japan now owns more than half of the Japanese government bond market, and is capping long term yields at explicit levels by policy, battling market forces that are pushing for a higher yielding environment against a backdrop of inflation at 40 year highs. Despite a 4% CPI reading in Japan, Governor Kuroda’s only regret is that he “was unable to achieve the 2% inflation goal.” Whether Kuroda had achieved his objectives or not is up for debate. The question is - in the process of attempting to pull Japan out of a deflationary spiral, did Governor Kuroda create a meteoric 500 trillion yen bubble in JGBs? And what happens when he is no longer there to keep the largest bubble in history inflated? -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Introducing Market Depth, hosted by Weston Nakamura, a podcast giving you direct access into the Asia Pacific region. Reporting from Tokyo, Weston provides a unique insight into how the region influences global macro forces driving markets all around the world. With his extensive background at both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies specialising in equity & derivative sales, this is the perfect podcast to cut through the noise and get the key takeaways before your trading day starts. -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To Blockworks Macro: https://www.youtube.com/@BlockworksHQ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent twitter thread after this weeks ECB meeting. In this meeting, Lagarde gave an undoubtedly hawkish press conference to remind markets they have a lot further to go in their quest to fight inflation. Alfonso walks through how investors should interperit this hawkish tone from the ECB, and more importantly how it might effect your portfolio. To find out more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: This was the most important ECB meetings since the Draghi era: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1603409716339740672 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting (06:36) The ECB Is Leading Europe Into A Recession (08:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained". This week the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a bombshell report that made the rounds reporting on the roughly $100 Trillion in "hidden" USD debt. Alfonso walks through the mechanics of the report and dispels some of the doomsday scenarios that made some headlines. To find out more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/usd-hidden-debt#details Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:14) King Dollar Matters (05:46) What’s This ‘‘Hidden Debt’’ All About? (09:18) Where Is The Problem? (14:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Steve Keen Professor of economics and creator of the Minsky software. Professor Keen joins the show to debunk the myth of government deficits by walking through the biggest misconceptions in the mechanics of money, government spending and private vs public sector deficits. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Professor Steve Keen: https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show: Building a New Economics: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) The Process of Money Creation (06:52) The Fiscal Spending of 2020 (12:02) The Mechanics of Bond Issuance (15:47) How Government Spending Actually Works (28:07) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors". As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they assets that are return additive and low correlation assets. — As a listener of Boiler Room, you will be able to get access to TMC content for the entire 2023 by paying only 9 months instead of 12! Check out which subscription tier suits you the most and grab your last chance to be an early bird subscriber using the discount code ‘‘TMC2’’! https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/stupid-mistakes-macro-investors#details — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:57) Common Mistakes & How To Avoid Them (04:13) You Sure You’re Running 5 Positions, Or Is It Just 1? (06:58) Do Not Proxy Trade (09:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to Jared's book - Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://amzn.to/3EQ0xxX On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jared Bibler author of Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con. Alfonso and Jared draw parallels between the financial fraud that took place in Iceland during the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent fallout of FTX. History doesn't repeat itselt, but it often rhymes. What is it that causes financial fraud and excessive leverage time and time again throughout history? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jared: https://twitter.com/jared_bibler Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show: All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/money-printing-myths#details Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://icelandssecret.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong (03:37) The Untold Story of The World’s Biggest Con (11:54) Parallels With The FTX Fallout (15:55) History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes (21:17) How Did The Situation In Iceland End? (24:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023. With a focus on the cyclical & secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real time and leading indicators, Eric evaluates the current cyclical trend in economic growth and inflation before sharing his outlook on what this means for markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show: Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Eric's Secular & Cyclical Economic Outlook (06:37) Are We In A Recession? (13:21) Market's Are Not Priced For A Recession (20:08 )Market Outlook Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?". While equities have rallied in recent weeks, investors are split between wether this signals a market bottom, or a bear market rally. With the end of the year often posting positive equity returns, we have to dig under the surface and look at the bond market to help us. Alfonso walks through the signals the bond market is telling and describes how we can position to benefit from that, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bond-market-talking#details Secure Your Spot on The Macro Compass! https://themacrocompass.substack.com/about — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) When The Bond Market Talks, You Better Listen (04:30) What Is This: 2001? (07:54) The Fed Pivot... Or Pause (11:07) What Is Happening In Markets? (14:40) The Macro Compass — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the recent rally in markets. In 2022, inflation remains Powell's single focus. After tightening financial conditions all year, markets in recent weeks have rallied on lower than expected CPI & PPI prints. Julian walks through the dynamics that could be at play for an end of year rally, but holds conviction that markets are not priced for a recession in 2023. — Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Are Equties Signalling A Bear Market Rally? (06:20) Inflation In The U.S (10:06) Markets Are Not Priced For A Recession (14:05) Equity Market Liquidity (19:16) The End of Hyper-Financialization (24:40) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

''Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor. As a listener of Boiler Room, you can use the code ''Alf'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/ -- Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) October's CPI Report (15:30) Top Stories of The Week (25:25) FTX: Crypto's Lehman Moment (30:15) Launching The Macro Compass Platform -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for an update on the forces driving equity markets through the end of 2022 and into 2023. Mr Blonde walks through the 3 biggest factors driving markets today: U.S midterms, earnings & the Fed. Being vocal about the bear market driven by the Fed's tightening cycle, Mr Blonde now sees the next leg of this bear market being driven by earnings revisions. To hear all this & more, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ — Referenced In The Show: Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Next 3-6 Months In Equity Markets (03:28) Mid Term Election Impact? (07:45) Equity Earnings Season (11:39) What Is This: 2001? (14:51) Looking Ahead 6 Months Into 2023 (18:24) The Powell Pivot (25:36) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish". This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it’s very premature to think about pausing”. Alfonso breaks down the Fed conference, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Referenced In The Show: A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/from-hawkish-to-more-hawkish#details Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 1, 2022: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1074 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) Powell's Press Conference (06:55) Powell Aims To Regain Credibility (10:19) A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish! (12:25) Monetary Plumbing: Treasury General Account & Reverse Repo __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard for a discussion on "the non-Fed pivot". As central bankers around the world identify inflation as the common enemy, embarking on their fastest rate hike path in modern history, just what sort of fragilities are emerging at the edges? Dario takes a deep dive into the U.K, Canadian & Australian economies as signs of fragility begin to emerge. Dario also discusses the real estate bubble's that have happened in these regions as they failed to de-leverage post 2008, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Referenced In The Show: A Sudden Change of Heart? Housing IS the Business Cycle -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:51) Dealing With Higher Interest Rates (05:29) Central Banks Are Having A Sudden Change of Heart (11:33) Can Central Banks Afford Not To Fight Inflation? (15:04) What Will Make Powell Pivot His Hawkish Stance? (19:08) Dario's Outlook For Markets Throughout 2022 & Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds". After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds are viewing the world in this market condition. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/chat-with-macro-hedge-funds#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Housing IS The Business Cycle (04:51) Death By A Thousand Cuts Or A Systemic Risk Event? (08:02) Using The Last 10-Year Framework Won't Work (10:57) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Pension Funds Drama Explained". Leveraged bets, illiquid assets and pending liabilities have led to a UK pension fund crisis. How did pension funds end up in this tenuous state? Are US and European pensions next, and what does this mean for investment portfolios? Tune in to find out! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Pension Funds Drama Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/pension-fund-drama#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Pension Funds 101 (05:47) Everything Was Fine, Until Volatility Hit (08:46) Can This Happen To The US & Europe? (11:21) Investment Implications -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Frances Coppola to explain today's banking system and debunk the theory that money is "printed". Frances discusses the creation of money in the modern economy and how the money supply expands and contracts. We then explore the bank lending process, a bank's equity and what almost everyone gets wrong about bank reserves. Does government fiscal spending increase the money supply or just recycle it? Are bank reserves lent to other borrowers? What components comprise the total money in circulation? Tune in to find out! -- Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/FrancesCoppola4 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Case For People's Quantitative Easing https://www.amazon.com/Case-Peoples-Quantitative-Easing/dp/1509531300 -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:27 Who Prints Money? 04:16 How Banks Make Loans 06:07 What Everyone Gets Wrong About Bank Reserves 19:46 Government Fiscal Spending, It's Circular 24:00 Why Is This So Confusing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled “Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!” This week, Alfonso draws parallels between the 2000 - 2001 period by looking at inflation, equities & bond market performance. As markets have caught many investors off guard this year, it’s important to look back throughout history to inform asset allocation. As Mark Twain famously said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Just how similar is the 2000 - 2001 period compared to today? To find out, you’ll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso Follow Blockworks Subscribe To The Macro Compass Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Referenced In The Show: Wait: Is It 2001 Again?! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Refreshing The Macro Framework (07:16) The Monetary Policy Stance Remains VERY TIGHT (10:06) The Powell Credibility Indicator (11:06) Early 2001 Is Here, Again! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a timely update on the US dollar milkshake. Throughout 2022 the US dollar has continued to climb higher against most currencies around the world, most notably the Japanese Yen, British Pound & the Euro. Many years ago, Brent outlined his dollar milkshake thesis stating that as long as the current monetary system stays intact, the US dollar will continue to outperform major currencies around the world and cause some real damage in the process. Brent now joins us for an update on his thesis, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Brent Follow Alfonso Follow Blockworks Subscribe To The Macro Compass Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Referenced In The Show: Bank of England announces gilt market operation Fed Pivot My A*S -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) An Update On The U.S Dollar (03:49) Fed Pivot? Think Again... (05:24) Intervention In The FX Markets (08:34) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied (11:40) How Effective Are FX Reserves At Saving Currencies? (15:13) The Dollar Milkshake Theory (22:17) The Great Deleveraging (25:28) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "FX Markets Are On Fire". In 2022, FX markets are back with a vengeance. For the last 20+ years, developed markets’ economic models were based on a two-tier system of globalization and credit creation. In 2022, as inflation continues to shock the global financial system, economic models are being flipped upside down as some of the strongest currencies, now become some of the weakest. In this video, Alfonso walks through the strongest, the weakest & the safest currencies in today's environment by identifying six key indicators, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: FX Markets Are On Fire: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fx-markets-on-fire#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) FX Fundamentals Are Back With A Vengeance (05:45) Japan: Is The YCC Ever Going To Stop? (08:49) Switzerland: Strong and Orthodox (11:12) The UK: Oh Dear… (12:42) The U.K Mortgage System (14:02) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Trust Me: It Will Be Enough". After this weeks FOMC meeting, as Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets struggled to price in Fed policy. With echoes of Mario Draghi's famous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Powell highlighted to markets that "it will be enough", the Fed will be able to break the back of inflation. So just how will markets reach to Powell's "much tighter, for much longer" stance? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Trust Me: It Will Be Enough: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:48) The Fed Dot Plot (03:55) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker (07:06) Risk Asset's & Equities (08:37) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, for a discussion on FX markets. As the U.S Dollar wrecking ball keeps marching higher, just how is the currency landscape evolving in both emerging and developed markets. How important is energy in determining FX rates in 2022 with the backdrop of a global energy crisis affecting Europe’s current accounts? Finally, Alf & Brent end the discussion talking about the BoJ and their yield curve control. But to hear that, you’ll have to tune in! -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC (04:40) The Effect of Energy On FX (12:13) How Energy Bailouts Will Effect FX In Europe (17:12) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for a discussion on the forces driving equity markets. Mr Blonde shares his thoughts on current financial conditions, the effect of a strong U.S Dollar on markets, the path forward for the Fed & what we would have to see to target 3200 on the S&P 500. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Financial Conditions (02:11) How Financial Conditions Effect Equities (04:10) The U.S Dollar (05:34) Real Yields (08:40) The Path Forward For The Fed (15:26) Market Outlook (19:38) The Path Towards 3200 On The S&P 500 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Putin vs Europe - The Long War". In June, Putin gave a speech on the global economy that began circulating social media over the weekend. In that speech Putin reiterated the point that ''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. With all of the problems Europe has faced this year, particularly surrounding energy prices before they head in to winter, Alfonso breaks down Putin's strategy as he aims to bring Europe to its knees. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details Putin's Speech On The Economy: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Putin's Speech On The Economy (06:45) Europe's Business Model Is Reversing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Moment of Truth for Markets". Alf breaks down what is being priced in European & U.S bond markets after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and an upside inflation report out of Europe. After a clear market sell-off through the beginning of 2022, markets in recent months have rallied from the lows. Alf argues that now is the "moment of truth". Should we expect further downside throughout 2022 and into 2023, or not? To find out, you'll have to tune in! Read The Moment of Truth for Markets: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-moment-of-truth-for-markets#details -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) The European Bond Market (07:33) U.S Markets (09:54) Powell Will Be Happy With Markets Post Jackson Hole (13:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC. With global inflation rates at multi decade highs, Jim joins the show to discuss the “new era of inflation” we are entering. How will rising energy prices, secular de-globalization and a new work from home dynamic affect inflation in the future? Is the bond market incorrectly pricing lower inflation? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in! -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ – Referenced In The Show: Neel Kashkari Says the Quiet Part Out Loud on Markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-29/neel-kashkari-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud-on-markets Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details War and Industrial Policy: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5amR-YP34-V&t=-1e4y7st99l5d0a0be21hgr5ht -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) Neel Kashkari's Comments On Markets (05:14) The Number One Question For Financial Markets Right Now (09:31) A New Regime For Inflation? (13:51) Zoltan Pozsar: War and Industrial Policy (21:23) Asset's To Own In This Environment? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fed Pivot My A*S”. We just heard Jerome Powell deliver a very decisive speech in Jackson Hole where he stressed that the Fed won’t be making another mistake: after underestimating inflation in 2021 and delaying the tightening cycle, they will not prematurely stop now. Alfonso breaks down how to interpret Jerome’s remarks, what the economic data is showing and where to look for short-term market opportunities. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Read Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details -- Timestamps (00:00) Intro (01:47) Housing Activity is Slowing Down Rapidly (04:26) Quantitative Tightening Matters (07:19) Monetary Conditions Will Continue to Tighten (10:09) Market Opportunities -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Mark Dow author of behavioural macro, a former policy economist, prior hedge fund manager and self prescribed fiat enthusiast. Mark walks through the process of QE & QT and explains how most overestimate the effect they have on liquidity. Does QE actually have any effect on a banks appetite for risk? Alfonso & Mark then discuss if the Fed will remain tighter than most think & what level of inflation will cause the Fed to reverse course. Could the bottom be in? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/mark_dow Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening (08:13) Does QE Actually Effect Banks Appetite For Risk? (17:45) What Level Of Inflation Does The Fed Wan't To See? (22:11) The Fed Will Remain Tighter Than Most Think -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction". Many investors have a macro thesis, but how can you translate that into an actionable portfolio? Alfonso breaks down how he approaches portfolio construction by walking through his macro compass model and how these 4 quadrants can influence asset allocation for different periods of the business cycle. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Read On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-portfolio-construction#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:21) The Macro Compass Model (06:03) CAD/JPY (09:06) Structuring A Portfolio With Limited Correlations (12:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fading The Soft Landing Narrative". As CPI printed at 8.5%, market participants felt relief as many believe these are the early signs of inflation beginning to subside. On the back of a better than expected inflation report, markets began rallying as the market prices in a soft landing. Alfonso walks through exactly why markets rallied on the better than expected CPI report and if this is really just a bear market rally trap. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Fading The Soft Landing Narrative: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fading-soft-landing#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Fading The Soft Landing (01:52) The Labour Market (04:57) The CPI Report (12:39) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Crazy Market Rally Explained". After a sharp decline in markets throughout 2022, many investors were caught off guard by the recent rally in equites. Is the bear market over? Should we expect a rally from here? "Hold your horses" says Alfonso. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Crazy Market Rally Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/crazy-market-rally#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Fed's Neutral Rate (04:21) Inflation Is Priced To Slow Down Aggressively (05:55 )Real Rates Are Driving Markets (10:01) Slaying The Inflation Dragon -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Rising star in the macro world, Srivatsan Prakash, joins Alfonso Peccatiello, to argue that the risk of a recession is elevated. Prakash looks at indicators such as the copper-to-gold ratio and the inversion of the yield curve to make the case that a prolonged economic slowdown might be in the cards. Alf and Sri discuss China, Canadian housing, why bonds might be an attractive way for investors to hedge for this recession risk. Sri is the host of the Market Champions podcast and an intern at Simplify Asset Management. Follow Srivatsan Prakash on Twitter https://twitter.com/SrivatsPrakash Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- DAS Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code NYC250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) Are We Headed For A Recession? (08:49) Yield Curve Inversion Is Harbinger Of Recession (12:50) Copper-To-Gold Ratio (17:28) What's Going On In China? (23:53) Canadian Real Estate Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Imran Lakha for a discussion on Europe, the ECB and a deep dive into the options market. With Nord Stream pipeline disruptions all throughout the week, Imran discusses the various mounting headwinds facing the European economy in 2022 from risk of recession, energy venerability and soaring inflation making the statement that "the ECB is cornered". Imran then goes on to discuss the options market from a variety of asset classes and explains what the market is pricing, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Imran: https://twitter.com/options_insight Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Europe, Russia & The Nord Stream Pipeline (02:56) "The ECB Is Cornered" (08:32) Market Pricing (12:17) Structuring An Options Position (23:29) Whats Happening In U.S Markets? (25:08) Will The Fed Get A Soft Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jeff Snider and Steve Van Metre of Atlas Financial. Jeff, Steve & Alfonso walk through some of the biggest misconceptions in our current monetary system. We discuss some of the emerging signs of a collateral shortage in the banking system, the current labor market, bank lending data and the inversion of the eurodollar curve. Just what signals is the bond market sending to the market, to find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven Follow Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) What Is Atlas Financial? (04:18) Is The Labor Market Strong? (09:57) The Eurodollar Curve Inversion (14:16) Bank Lending Is Collapsing (19:46) Signs Of A Collateral Shortage (28:05) Bank Reserves Are NOT Money -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Kris Sidial Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. With a significant equity drawdown throughout H1 2022, many investors expected a spike in volatility. However, the VIX remains suppressed at low levels suggesting a lack of fear in markets. Kris joins the show to break down some of the complexities of market volatility and describes why we have not yet seen investors flee for the exit. Could a huge VIX spike be on the horizon? To hear Kris's thoughts, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Kris: https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: How structured products have suppressed equity index volatility: https://twitter.com/Ksidiii/status/1544458838149062658 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Running A Volatility Arbitrage Hedge Fund (02:40) Why Is The VIX So Suppressed? (10:19) Commodities Were The Perfect Hedge For 2022 H1, Will they Be For H2? (14:24) The Effect Of Structured Products On Volatility (21:43) How A Market Sell-Off Could Trigger A Huge VIX Spike -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Kao, retired hedge fund manager and private investor, for a discussion on the many obstacles facing the Fed. Kao says "the genie is out the bottle" for inflation. As the Fed attempts to engineer a soft landing, will it be able to do so without causing a credit crisis? Historically, the Fed's track record of engineering a soft landing has been "pretty bad,” according to Kao. How will this cocktail of high inflation, recessionary pressures, elevated commodity prices, a strong dollar and increasing credit risk manifest itself? To find out, you'll have to tune in. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Fed Chair Powell Opening Statement to Banking Committee: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5020856/fed-chair-powell-opening-statement-banking-committee Powell says the Fed is 'not trying to provoke' a recession, but it is 'certainly a possibility.': https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/business/powell-fed-inflation-recession.html Inflation-"Ride of the Volkyries" Thoughts: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1528416947007680512 Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ&t=2852s Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All TIme | Michael Kao: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4a1Bqm4X5MeqXNAiLiirWn?si=27104db4abad40f3 Commodity price inflation butterfly: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1368978017033195528 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) "The Genie Is Out The Bottle" For The Fed (05:51) Whats Going On In The Bond Market? (15:44) Turmoil In The Housing Market (28:10) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research. 2021 and 2022 saw commodity prices soar due to supply constraints — Warren walks through the supply and demand outlook throughout the back half of 2022. As China reopens, conflict in Ukraine continues, and commodity prices remain elevated, will a recession lead to a decline in commodity prices, or is the inflationary impulse and supply mismatch too great to cause demand destruction? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow : https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Oil slips on China lockdowns, but bullish trends intact: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-hovers-near-13-week-high-robust-us-demand-china-optimism-2022-06-09/?taid=62a1b0ba7385bc0001a57c94 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Commodity Bull Market (03:02) The Oil Market (08:26) Backwardation Of The Oil Curve (11:59) Will Demand Destruction Reduce Oil Prices? (19:27) Supply Constrains In The Oil Market (22:49) Industrial & Agricultural Commodities (25:23) Government Reaction To Rising Energy Prices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the US dollar. Known for his popular dollar milkshake theory, Brent says the U.S dollar wrecking ball is wounding the global economy. Recession looms as markets continue their sell-off, financial conditions tighten, and emerging markets scramble to pay off dollar-denominated debt — capital is just starting to get sucked down the dollar black hole. Just how badly will this end for global balance sheets? You’ll have to tune in to find out. -- Follow : https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination: U.S Dollar https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/e2?m=USD&f=pdf ECB Is Discussing Crisis Strategy as Well as Pandemic Program Reinvestments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/ecb-is-discussing-crisis-strategy-as-well-as-pepp-reinvestments#xj4y7vzkg -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) The Dollar Milkshake (05:57) U.S Dollar Denominated Debt (14:00) Rising Dollar, Gold, Equities & Rates (18:50) The Dollar Black Hole -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Pettis for a discussion on China. Finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management and senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Michael Pettis worked on Wall Street from 1987 at notable firms such as JPMorgan, First Boston and Bear Stearns. With Pettis' expertise, he provides a deep dive on the Chinese economic growth model and how factors such as debt, demographics and deleveraging will effect China's growth model looking forward. With Beijing acknowledging that the past 30 years of economic growth will not work for China going forward, what does this entail for the country’s strategy over the next decade and beyond? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow : https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion - IIF: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-U-S-lead-rise-in-global-debt-to-record-high-305-trillion-IIF--40468591/ The one-child policy in China: https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/chinas-one-child-policy/ China: To Invest or Not To Invest?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/china-to-invest-or-not-to-invest?s=r#details China posts record trade surplus in Dec and 2021 on robust exports: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-exports-imports-grow-more-slowly-december-2022-01-14/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) The Chinese Model For Growth (06:41) Demographics & Consumption In China (12:02) China's Strategy In The Next Decade & Beyond (21:06) The Great Deleveraging -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Travis Kimmel for a wide ranging discussion from geopolitics to supply chains, the housing market and much more. If there is one thing to take away from this conversation, it would be that contrary to popular belief, cash is NOT trash. Travis walks listeners through the upcoming recessionary downturn we should expect to see throughout the end of 2022. Drawing on his experience as an entrepreneur and technologist, he provides an insight to some of the struggles companies may face over the coming months. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Travis: https://twitter.com/coloradotravis Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Geopolitical Situation In Ukraine (03:47) Supply Chain Effects On Inflation (09:47) Increasing Borrowing Costs (14:00) The Housing Market (17:22) Cash Is NOT Trash (28:05) Moving Away From A Credit Based System? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.