Real Math Behind the Number of Needed Offers Sent to Succeed (LA 1555)

Real Math Behind the Number of Needed Offers Sent to Succeed (LA 1555) Transcript: Steven Butala: Steve and Jill here. Jill DeWit: Hello. Steven Butala: Welcome to the Land Academy Show, entertaining land investment talk. I'm Steven Jack Butala. Jill DeWit: And I'm Jill DeWit, broadcasting from pretty Phoenix, Arizona. Steven Butala: Today, Jill and I explore the real math behind the number of offers needed to be sent out to succeed. Should I send 100? Should I send 1000? I'm brand new, I don't know what to do. What's the real math behind it? I really want to buy a few properties. Before we get into it, let's take a question posted by one of our members on the landinvestors.com online community. It's free. If you're already a Land Academy member, please join us on Discord. Jill DeWit: Austin wrote, "Hey, y'all, I'm doing research in an area that is heavy on lakes. The comp data is all over the place, likely due to the variants in attributes. Do you guys sort out and price specifically for waterfront property or mix them up and use one pricing methodology?" Good question. Steven Butala: Well, you have two choices here, and you kind of identified both of them. Depending on who you talk to in the Land Academy group or really anyone, they're going to give you a different answer. But you're saying, hey, what do I do? What do I do? I look at the data. I look at the mailer I'm about to send out. California's like this. There's a lot of waterfront property that's incredibly expensive. And then if you go one block back, it's a different price. Two blocks back, it's a different price. And then three blocks back all the way to Michigan, it's the same price. Steven Butala: So if you're super concerned about pricing and accuracy, which you shouldn't be, and I'll explain why in a second, you're going to take a microscopic or what I call a rifle approach versus a shotgun approach to pricing all this data. So, dream with me for a second. If you had the time and the patience to look up every property, and we have people in our group who do this- Jill DeWit: That's the problem, yeah. Steven Butala: ... and price it, every single property, you will fail. Jill DeWit: It's just too much. It's too much. Steven Butala: It's too time consuming, and you're removing the possibility of hitting a home run. Jill DeWit: It's personal preference, I think, was really what it is. You can't line by line this stuff. We're going to talk here in a minute about the number of mail you should be sending out. You don't have time to sit and go through 15,000 of them line by line. You'll be here until December. Steven Butala: And it's not that important anyway. Jill's going to talk about that in a second. Pricing is not why people sign an offer, and she'll explain that in a second. So what do you do? You got all this, let's say Florida canal property, and then inland property. The Florida canal property is twice as expensive as the inland property on the MLS. You follow the methodology of zip code pricing, and you come to an average or a mean of all the data in that data set, and you send everybody an offer at a price that you think is appropriate below retail. So maybe it's 20% or 30% or 40% or some number like that. Steven Butala: What's going to happen is that the people who own the waterfront property and the people who own the inland property are going to get an offer roughly the same, and they're going to sign it. Some of them are going to sign it and some of them aren't. The ones who sign it on the waterfront, you're going to make a ton of money. The ones who sign it on inland, you're going to make- Jill DeWit: Still good money. Steven Butala: ... not quite a ton of money, but very good money on the deal as an investment. So pricing is not why people sign offers. People sign offers because you just hit them at the right time and they were having a life event and they want to sell it. Jill DeWit: You could also have this.