Investors' Insights and Market Updates

On this episode of Innovation Mavericks, Greg Powell, CEO of Fi Plan Partners, sits down with Michelle Norwood, Owner of A Little Something Extra Ice Cream, and their CEO, Hunter Norwood, to talk about how their mobile ice cream business is making a difference in the lives of those with Down syndrome and other exceptionalities. What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free thinking people who refuse to conform to society standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational. What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing what hasn’t been done before. New ideas, methods, solutions, systems, products, and tools at the heart of every Maverick is the power of innovation. So, let’s tap into the mind of an innovator!   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Innovation Mavericks: Michelle and Hunter Norwood, A Little Something Extra Ice Cream first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Inflation Last week the reports showed a higher-than-expected inflation number. We were expecting a 0.1% decrease but instead, we got a 0.1% increase. That doesn’t sound like a lot but when other things are factored in, such as energy prices being down 5% thanks to a decrease in gas prices, it was a big increase. The driving forces of this are food prices, rent prices, medical services, and operations services. Operations services are coming back into the picture but with higher prices. The Fed is definitely focused on this number because it was a negative surprise for it to be higher than expected. The Fed is going to be watching that closely, which could change expectations from a 50-basis point hike to possibly a 75 or 100-basis points hike. Market Volatility As volatility remains the story, we continue to look back in history to see how the market has performed in similar situations. A chart that continues to interest us is the average stock decline chat. With the S&P 500 down 18% since January 1st, the average stock has actually declined 25%, which is why active management has been crucial this year. The average stock is near the minus two standard deviation level, which shows performance that is different from the average that is often associated with a bounce up. As you can see on the chart shown in this episode, the dotted red line shows that going back to 1980, the market has bounced to the upside numerous times when stocks have fallen like they have this year. As always, no guarantees, but we’re observing to see if history repeats itself as we get through the Federal Reserve aggressively raising rates again this week on Wednesday. One question we have is will the market bounce higher like we’ve seen before at this level, or will it remain at the levels that you see in the chart shown in this episode for an extended period of time as we saw in 1998 through 2002? If we can bounce higher at these levels, it will be a good sign. It is all about the Fed and how the market reacts to their decision on Wednesday. Technical Analysis We saw a lot of volatility in the markets last week, with the S&P 500 closing on Friday at 3,873. That gives us a new short-term resistance level of 3,900 and a new support level of 3,840. We previously discussed the intermediate to long-term support levels and how they would play out through the end of the year, and we recently saw the market cross through those levels at 3,900. This doesn’t mean that we’re in a bear market by any means, but it does mean that we need to keep a close eye on this over the next couple of months to see if it stays under that price or if it bounces back up. The year-to-date moving day average of the S&P 500 is currently sitting at 4,206, which is close to the long-term resistance level. The market will be important to watch this week with the Fed decision this week, as well as the midterm elections coming up. We want to keep an eye on these items from a technical standpoint to see if we can get some momentum back in the market. It’s also important to note that these pullbacks often create good buying opportunities. We will keep a close eye on the Fed and other market movers to see what these levels look like in the following weeks.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post All About The Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Strength There was a lot of strength in the market last week, which is great to see considering we have to contend with the seasonally weak month of September. The test this week will be if the market can continue the uptrend or was last week a bounce due to the previous three weeks being down. This is something we’ll watch carefully. The good news is a seasonally strong fourth quarter is right around the corner and history is a guide. The midterm elections may provide the added late-year boost, and as you can see in the chart shown in this episode, September has historically been one of the weakest months for stocks. On that same chart, you will see the green bars for October and November. The calendar is historically bullish in the fourth quarter during mid-term election years. We are watching carefully to see if the market strength seen last week will continue into the fourth quarter. A lot of this depends on what the fed decides to do as well as inflation. Inflation The Fed is what is most important in these markets. The Federal Reserve is absolutely watching inflation as is everybody else. Tuesday, we will get this month’s inflation report, the Consumer Price Index. With the Fed meeting next week, this will be the last large data point that they’ll have to analyze. Expectations are for the CPI year-over-year change to be 8%. While that’s not comfortable, it is down from 8.5% and even further down 9.1%. That would be three straight months of decline from the peak. The first thing we’ve got to do is change the rate of change and we’re seeing that, which is a positive indicator. Why is that very important? As shown on a chart in this episode, you can see that the federal funds rate, which is the rate that the Fed puts out on money, peaks in every cycle since 1974 at a higher rate than CPI. Currently, the federal funds rate is 2.5% and inflation is at 8.5%. That shows that the Federal Reserve has a lot of work to do on raising rates. It can come in two ways. They can cross with either the federal fund rate raising or by inflation falling. We really need to see them meet in the middle and hopefully closer to where we are today. The first step is inflation falling. If the Federal Reserve has to do all of the work as it did back in the eighties, we could see interest rates well above 8%. That would be very drastic and negative for the economy so we’re hopeful that inflation will do its part by coming down, starting tomorrow. Jobs The recent jobs report had a little bit of everything in it. We added more jobs, which was good and more than expected. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%. That seems like a bad thing, however, our labor force participation rate, the number of people actively looking for jobs, rose for the first time in a long time. This type of good news is exactly what the Fed wants to see, more people looking for jobs. Also, average hourly earnings for the month outpaced inflation. That’s another good thing to see along with the fact that we’re adding to the service sector, which is also deflationary. So, as you can see, there was a lot of good data in this recent report, despite the higher-than-expected unemployment number. Technical Analysis Two weeks ago, we saw a lot of volatility in the markets. Last week, we had a good week with all eleven sectors finishing to the upside with Friday’s close coming in at a price of 4,067. That gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,100 and a new short-term support level of 4,030. Two key numbers we want you to focus on are the intermediate resistance and support levels that reach out to the end of the year and as we approach midterm elections. On the upside, the resistance level we’re looking for is 4,200 and the support level we’re looking for is 3,900. If the market breaks through that 4,200 and stays above that, we could see some positive momentum moving forward.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as pr

Listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Bobby Norman go over the historical data surrounding the impact that political events, such as elections, have on the markets.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Strategas Research Partners. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Election Impact on Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Treasury recently announced the highest rate ever for I bonds. However, it may not be as attractive as you think. Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Mark Hume explain what I bonds are and what to look for when it comes to your cash savings.   Series I bonds can only be purchased online and in a limited amount. Please see treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm for more information.   Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Understanding Your Cash first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Technical Analysis We have recently had viewers ask for examples of how we use technical analysis so today we will go over some of those examples. Often, we talk about resistance and support levels and one of the questions is asked how we arrive at those numbers. One of the main things that we look at is the moving day averages of the S&P 500. Some are the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving day averages. Recently, we talked about the S&P 500 approaching the 200-day moving day average. In fact, we’ve seen the S&P 500 trade over both the 50-day and 100-day moving day averages. When this happens, it starts to build momentum in the markets that we look at. In the last couple of weeks, we saw the S&P 500 almost hit the 200-day moving day average before it receded back down. This type of market behavior gives us indications of whether we need to buy or sell certain positions. Overall, this type of analysis gives us a good indication of the momentum in the markets and where we could possibly head for the remainder of the year. It’s important to keep in mind that those days are captured on actual trading days so when you hear 200-day moving day average, that means 200 days of the week, not including weekends and holidays. Corporate Earnings We had a viewer ask about how corporate earnings have performed in the second quarter compared to historical earnings for previous quarters. Eight of the ten sectors exceeded earnings expectations. Was that because expectations were low, or is it because we are in a good spot? As you can see on the chart shown in this episode, the average for corporate earnings beats is 66%. Right now, it’s hovering around 76%. It kind of flattened out from the first quarter of this year but is up slightly from the fourth quarter of last year, which is a good sign. You hear a lot of talk regarding the negatives, but so far corporate earnings have hung in there quite well. From a historical standpoint, corporate earnings for the second quarter of this year, are performing better and that is great to see for the market. Housing Market We continue to get a lot of questions about the housing market and what impact the higher rates are having on it. Right now, we’re seeing a slowdown across housing. Total US home sales were down 12.6% for July. That is a big drop just in one month. As you can see in the chart shown in this episode, existing home sales, new home sales, and the housing index have all seen a steep drop. We’re watching housing carefully to see what impact it could have on the overall economy since we are seeing a definite slowdown in that sector. We want to pay close attention to see what impact it’s having in the markets.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Answering Client Questions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free-thinking people who refuse to conform to society’s standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational. What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing what hasn’t been done before. New ideas, methods, solutions, systems, products, and tools at the heart of every Maverick is the power of innovation. So, let’s tap into the mind of an innovator! Today’s Innovation Mavericks video is with Greg Powell, CEO of Fi Plan Partners, and Brian Collins, Owner of Atomic Pictures. Listen as they discuss how the advertising industry has changed over the years and give tips on how to adapt and overcome when it comes to staying ahead of the trends.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Brian Collins and Atomic Pictures are not affiliated with or endorsed by Fi Plan Partners or LPL Financial. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Innovation Mavericks: Brian Collins, Atomic Pictures first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Uncertainty Last week we talked about the importance of 90% of stocks being above their 50-day moving averages, which is historically a very positive development, but what could lead to further volatility in the market? The answer is higher yields. Rising yields could be a threat to the recent rally that we’ve seen in the stock market. As you can see in the chart shown in this episode, the ten-year yield rallied higher in the past week and is one of the reasons that the market pulled back slightly. On the left-hand side of the chart, you will see that the ten-year yields have been on a decline since June, which coincided with a stronger market. Lower yields have helped drive the market higher in recent reads. We were a little surprised to see yields spike last week as some of the inflation numbers came in lower. We will be watching yields this week to see if them increasing will lead to a market pull back and further uncertainty. Positive Earnings Over the last forty days or so we’ve seen a good rally in the market. The S&P 500 is up approximately seventeen percent. On the chart shown in this episode, you can see how the current market lines up with some of the historic rallies that were in not-so-great markets. Historically, the next 20-250 trading days has led to good performance with the one outlier in 2001. Hopefully, we’re on a good trajectory. What’s been a driver of this move has been earnings. Aggregate earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 is 9.7%, which is well above the 5.6% estimate coming into earning season. Revenue has also been great and it’s not just energy driving this move. As you can see on the chart shown, eight out of the ten sectors reported good earnings. About 90% of the companies have reported so far, so we’re almost through this earning season and not too much is going to change at this point. Overall, this earning season had been a good one. Technical Analysis Most of the damage from the pullback of the S&P 500 last week, came on Friday when the market was down a little over 1%. The closing price on Friday was 4,228. That gives us a new resistance level of 4,260 and a new support level of 4,200. Despite the pullback, over the last month, all eleven sectors have been in the green. The 50-day moving day average is currently sitting at 3,966. This is going to be an important number to keep an eye on over the next three months because that could potentially become our new resistance level and one that we really want to keep an eye on when we see volatility in the markets.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Rattling Cages first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Secure Act 2.0 is currently making its way through congress. Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Jason Hatley, Financial Planning Manager, go over what laws might change such as RMD age, student loan match contributions, and more. Jason Hatley, CPA Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Secure Act 2.0 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Strength There have been a lot of questions asked related to the market strength we have seen the past few weeks. Is it sustainable? Is what we’ve seen a typical bear market rally? Two weeks ago, on the vlog, we mentioned an indicator that we watch that looks at market strength. That indicator shows what percentage of stocks are above the 50-day moving average. Two weeks ago, only 68% of stocks were above their 50-day moving average, however, according to the chart shown in this episode, after last week’s rally, the percent of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving average broke through that important 90% threshold. That’s marking the best reading since April of last year. The persistence and the breadth of momentum, which is what this indicator attempts to measure, is a welcome change for the prior rally attempts that failed earlier this year. The market still has some near-term hurdles to contend with since many of the indices are now overbought. Seasonality won’t offer much help over the coming weeks, and the downward sloping 200-day moving average is still above the S&P and the NASDAQ. The momentum is strong, but we still need to get through some things in the near-term. Inflation Inflation is at the top of mind for everybody. Everyone sees inflation on a day to day basis. It is there especially when you go to the grocery store or fill up your gas tank. The way we are looking at it, is more on how it impacts the markets. The Fed having a $9 trillion balance sheet is the biggest mover in the market right now and for the foreseeable future. We received great news last week about inflation falling from 9.1% to 8.5% year over year. That is still high, but there has to be a peek and roll over before it can come down. What does that mean for the Fed? Historically, since 1970 the Federal Reserve has raised rates continuously until their federal funds rate is higher than the rate of inflation. Now, if you say the federal funds rate, which currently sits a 2.5%, needs to go to 9% to kill inflation, that would be very disruptive. We need to see inflation decrease while the Federal Funds Rate goes up. You can see on a chart shown in this episode that every rate hiking cycle has ended with the federal funds rate being higher than the inflation rate, so both need to happen. We need inflation to come down, but we would expect the Federal Reserve to continue to raise rates into that number. Where they meet in the middle is the biggest question for the market. How far down the road is the market expecting it, is what drives the current rally. We may be a little over bought, buying into an inflation relief rally. Peak inflation does not mean peaking interest rates, but it is something we’re watching very closely. Company Buybacks With the recent passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, one of the lesser-known clauses in there is a 1% buyback tax, which is going to start on January 1, 2023. The good news about this tax policy is that it’s a one-time change and companies can plan ahead since they have a little bit of advance notice. Companies may start to buy back their own stock and we could see some pulling forward of additional buybacks. This is one way for companies to return cash to shareholders. That could be something that we see at the end of the year and could be a sort of catalyst if companies are buying back excess stock. Another change that could happen after January 1st, is the possibility of more dividend increases as opposed to the buybacks because of the tax policy change. Technical Analysis We saw a good bit of momentum in the overall markets last week with 11 sectors finishing in the green on both Wednesday and Friday. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at a price of 4,280 giving us a new resistance level of 4,310 and a new support level of 4,250. Back in late spring, early summer, we talked about the price mark of 4,200 being something to watch. We have now crossed over that, so we are now focusing on the 200-day S&P 500 moving day average, which is currently sitting at a price of 4,328. We will be watching to see if this momentum can continue through the fall to see if we can get back over that 200-day moving average price of 4,328, which is an important indicator for the markets.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of t

What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free-thinking people who refuse to conform to society’s standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational. What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing what hasn’t been done before. New ideas, methods, solutions, systems, products, and tools at the heart of every Maverick is the power of innovation. So, let’s tap into the mind of an innovator! Listen as Greg Powell and Mitch York, Certified EOS Implementer®, discuss how the Entrepreneurial Operating System® helps entrepreneurs grow their business and identify issues faster. You can also listen to this bonus episode on our Investors’ Insights and Market Update podcast.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Innovation Mavericks: Mitch York, Certified EOS Implementer® first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Recession? We continue to receive client questions about the idea of us being in a recession and what impact that talk has on the market. It is important to point out that the S&P 500 has shown strength the past three weeks, even with the talk about a recession. The technical definition of an economic recession is having two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which we have had this year. The broad definition of a recession has actually changed some over the years, and we are of the opinion that we are not in a recession. We agree with the broad definition set forth by the National Bureau of Economic Research. In the chart shown in this episode, you will see that the main variables that the NBER uses for making a recession call are all up for the year and have been since the start of the year. We saw a very strong jobs number last week, industrial production is strong, and the consumer is showing a lot of strength, as you will see on the right-hand side of the chart, with retail sales and consumer spending being up as well. It’s not a surprise to see that the market is somewhat ignoring the recession talk because the broad strength of the economy that you see in the data on the chart shown. Different Results This is definitely not a rising tide, raising all boats, kind of economic growth or expansion, if we’re not in a recession. The chart shown in this episode from our research partners at Strategas, shows the different sectors of S&P 500 and their earnings growth in the second quarter. While the total market, which is a good representation of the total economy, is expecting an 8.4% growth in earnings, that’s wildly different across industries. You’ve got the energy industry, which is up nearly 300%, and on the other end you’ve got the financial sector, where earnings are expected to be down 22%. This looks a lot like what you would expect in an inflationary environment. Areas like energy, materials, industrials, and real estate are all doing very well, while other areas like utilities, consumer discretionary, and communications are showing a lot of weakness. This is a winners and losers kind of market, not necessarily a total market rise. This is not really a stock market, but more of a market of stocks where you’re having different results from different areas of the economy. Jobs Report We got the job number last week, which came out very strong adding 528,000 jobs compared to the estimated 250,000. We saw great strength in the service sectors like education, health services, leisure and hospitality, and professional business services. These are areas we want to see expand since they are the main areas that got hit hard during COVID. Manufacturing continues to increase and has been for 15 straight months. For the first time since 2019, we have surpassed our pre-COVID level. We were on a job growth trajectory before we got hit by COVID, which really caused a pull back, and now we have finally surpassed that, which is great news. However, the labor force came down a bit, dropping 63,000 people from the labor force. On top of that, this is something that the Fed is going to monitor when they consider hiking rates again in September. We saw reports estimating a 50-basis point hike, and then we saw odds go back up after this job report. It’s a good report, but with a little hair on it. Technical Analysis A lot of the economic data mentioned previously was reflected in the market in a positive way. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at a price of 4,145, giving us a new resistance level of 4,180 and a new support level of 4,110. We have been talking about the 50-day moving average over the last couple of weeks, and about how that has leveled off. It has now moved more towards the upside. We’re seeing something similar occur in the 100-day moving day average, which is currently sitting at a price of 4,117. That will be an important number to keep an eye on moving forward, as we’re starting to see these moving averages for the S&P 500 start to level off and, in fact, turn to the upside.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All pe

What is friend-shoring and how does it impact portfolios? Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Ashley Page go over this topic in relation to global wealth.   Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Friend-Shoring first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Current Markets Last week we talked about how this would be a big week with the Federal Reserve and GDP reports. The data and the market definitely didn’t disappoint. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points, putting the current Fed target rate at 2.5%. That was in line with pretty much all of Wall Street’s expectations. The Fed has done a really good job recently of establishing expectations of what they’re going to do. The big question now will be about what they’re going to do next. The next meeting is at the end of September, so we have a very long dead period for the Fed. Jerome Powell’s statements were actually more impactful than their actual actions, and his statements were pretty cautious in terms of being too aggressive, which the market really liked. His decision came out on Wednesday, and then we get the GDP report on Thursday. Jerome Powell mentioned on Wednesday, prior to the GDP report coming out, that he didn’t see the US and in recession. Then, on Thursday, we saw the GDP come out negative and below expectations. GDP fell about point 9%. This is the first estimate for the second quarter and could be revised higher at a later date, but that still puts us at back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The data showed that the consumer stayed strong, which is good. The consumer number actually grew at 0.7 points. As we’ve been talking through inflation data, we saw that trade was actually a positive 1.4% which means we’re exporting more than we’re importing. That’s great because we’re exporting goods at higher prices and importing goods at lower prices, which should be helpful for inflation. Our GDP data was negative across the board, the economy is weakening, we saw CAP X flat, we saw housing fall, and the Fed did tighten, Interest rates responded by long term rates coming down considerably, which is negative for future growth, but is taken as a positive right now for the markets. Market Rally We received a lot of questions from clients at the end of the last week and over the weekend about the rally that we saw on the market last week. People want to know if that rally means that the volatility of the market is over. We did some research and analysis over the weekend regarding that topic. On the chart shown in this episode, it shows after the rally last week, 68% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. That is great news however, we’re still shy of the 90% threshold that we historically associate with escape velocity in the early days of a new advance in the market. What we’re seeing right now is a kind of a discriminating rally and not so much as a rising tide that we would like to see for a longer-term uptrend. We got positive news last week, but we would like to see more of that to be true believers in a longer-term rally. Money Supply We got the money supply report last week and it shows a 5.5% growth year-over-year. It shows a 1.6% growth just for this year. This is way below the normal growth of 6% that we’ve seen for a normal year, and even further below the 14% we saw in the first half of 2021, and the overall 37% that we saw in 2022. This shows that the government is printing less money, which is a good thing, as it helps fight inflation. As you can see in the chart shown in this episode, there is almost a perfect 13-month lag from core CPI, which is inflation related data excluding energy and food costs, which are a little more variable, and money supply growth. We saw money supply really ramp up in 2021 and 2020. Now, 13 months later, we are seeing the CPI number and feeling that now. Now that it’s coming down, that’s a good sign that maybe the back half of this year going into next year, we could see a meaningful decline in inflation if these continue in the same pattern. Technical Analysis With the market rally on Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a price of 4,130. That gives us a new resistance level of 4,160 and a new support level of 4,100. Also, we talked a little bit last week about the 50-day moving average becoming stagnant. On Thursday of last week that actually flipped to the upside. This is the first time we’ve seen that happen since April 19th of this year. We’re going to continue watching these numbers to see if this momentum is going to build over these next couple of weeks.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies that are in