Investors' Insights and Market Updates

Dive into the latest insights on the US commercial real estate market as Ashley Page sheds light on the significant 20% vacancy rate. Discover the underlying reasons for these vacancies and gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics in this week’s episode.   Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Sourced data: NAIOP’s Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate, 2023 U.S. Edition. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Commercial Real Estate Vacancies first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

The Portfolio Team invites you to join them for an insightful discussion on the inverted yield curve, which has historically led to recessions, as well as other important topics such as record productivity, the Fed, and inflation. Watch to learn about these important economic topics and more.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Higher Inflation vs. Higher Productivity first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In this episode, Ty Miller provides a comprehensive overview of stock splits and reverse stock splits. He delves into the reasons why companies choose to do these splits and how they can impact investors. Tune in now to learn more.   Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post What is a Stock Split? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join the Portfolio Team as they discuss inflation, the consumer, and other factors impacting markets currently and what to expect moving forward. Watch the video to hear what they have to say.     Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Valuations and Expectations first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Consumer Strength We’ve been enjoying a strong equity market overall, but as always, we are looking at our leading economic indicators. The strength of the consumer and robust consumer spending have been a key driver of the economy and equity markets in the last 12 months. As investment managers, we always look for cracks that are starting to show in the economy. One of those potential cracks is around consumer spending, specifically the durable goods order report that came out last week. Durable goods orders fell by 6.1%, the biggest drop in nearly four years. When discussing durable goods, we are talking about items that last more than three years and cost more than daily items, such as dishwashers, refrigerators, washers, and dryers. We follow durable goods orders because it has historically been a good barometer for how consumers are feeling and can serve as a proxy for the overall economy. We’ll continue to watch this carefully as the lower durable goods order report came out last week at the same time as when the consumer confidence index fell. We’ll be analyzing other consumer reports to see if this is a short-term blip or what looks to be a longer-term trend.   The Cost of Automobiles The cost of automobiles is something we watch closely because, for most people, it’s the second largest purchase in their lifetime behind their home. It’s very impactful on an individual’s balance sheet. Since COVID, the cost of the average car has skyrocketed. The average cost of a new car is $47,000. That’s up about 33% from 2019. The good news is that we’ve started to see that come down. Baron’s created a Vehicle Affordability Index. In 2019, the index was at 56. This combines wage growth, interest rates, and new car prices. It started at 56, went up to 66 in December 2022, and has now dropped back to 61. What does that mean? It means the average new car price is down around $3,000. We’ve seen interest rates come down a bit, so the car-buying public should start to see some relief as supply chains come through and the new car market rolls over. The downside is that this may not shift down to the used car market. Barron estimates that due to the reduction in car sales from 2020 to 2022, there are about ten million missing cars on the market. These are cars that would have been purchased and available on the resell market that were never purchased or built. That’s probably added upward pressure from the used car market. With how large of a purchase an automobile is, this is a massive driver in the economy. However, it’s great to see some relief with prices coming down. On the downside, we are expecting to see oil prices go up. Opec announced over the weekend that they’re extending their two-plus million-dollar barrel-per-day production cut through June. We saw the oil market react higher to that. Your car may be cheaper, but it will cost you more to get there to buy it. There’s no absolute, but there’s always a little bit of good and bad. However, it all impacts markets and consumers at the end of the day.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Consumers, Cars, and Gasoline first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Inflation has been a hot topic in recent years, and for good reason. It can have a significant impact on the stock and bond markets. In this week’s episode, Trey Booth breaks down the metrics of the price-to-earnings ratio and explains how it relates to inflation and markets.   Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Inflation and P/E Ratio first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team delves into the potential government shutdown and its impact on the economy. They also provide updates on inflation and discuss how election year worries could affect markets. Watch to hear what they have to say about these topics and more. #     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Government Shenanigans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Here we are nearly two decades after the doors of Fi Plan Partners opened for the first time on February 18, 2005. Little did we know what the market would do over the next 19 years. In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team takes a walk down memory lane, discussing historical markets and what their experience has been like over the years, as well as what they expect out of markets in the future. In honor of our 19th anniversary, we are hosting our annual Investor’s Insights Markets and Your Money in 2024 event this week. Watch the full episode to learn more about this event and how to register.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Nineteen Years of Celebration first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

As an employee, you may be eligible for a range of benefits offered by your company. These benefits may include health insurance, 401(k) matching, HSAs, and more. However, it can be confusing to know whether you are making the most of these benefits or simply wasting your money. In this episode, Mark Hume shares valuable tips and cautions to help you navigate your company benefits. He explains how to take advantage of the opportunities available to you, such as maximizing your 401(k) matching, and highlights some things to be cautious of, such as avoiding unnecessary insurance coverage. By following these tips and being aware of the potential pitfalls, you can ensure that you are making the most of your company benefits.   Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Maximizing Employee Benefits first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Geopolitical Events In a meeting last week, a client mentioned how they are worried about the conflict in the Middle East and with Russia and Ukraine and asked if they should reduce risk to stocks until the situation calms down. In this episode, we want to share our thoughts on that topic. There is a humanitarian crisis that obviously cannot be ignored. However, how do these conflicts impact the markets and economy? The first area we are watching is the impact on natural resources, such as the price of oil, because that will have the most significant impact on inflation, profits, and consumer spending. We’re also watching the shipping and logistics issues in the Middle East, which will continue to have an impact on inflation. When it comes to the impact on the stock market, historically, the market shrugs off these types of geopolitical events. When you look at how the S&P 500 has performed around invasions and conflicts since 1950, including Russia invading Ukraine, the market has historically recovered in the months following these events. While each conflict is different, it has historically been a prudent investment strategy to stay invested in a diversified allocation based on each client’s long-term plan. We will continue to observe the current conflicts, but it’s important to know this isn’t the first time and will not be the last time geopolitical conflicts cause market volatility. Inflation and Interest Rates Out of all of the economic indicators that we track, the inflation report is the one that our clients feel most directly and is the one we look at for markets and planning, along with the cost of goods. The headline CPI is going to hit the print tomorrow. There are a lot of different inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, PPI, Core CPI, Super Core CPI, and more. A lot of those are essential, but a lot of them are also noise. We keep an eye on the headline Consumer Price Index because that’s what most people feel and is the one that’s been tracked the longest. Many economists are trying to cut out parts of the inflation that they don’t like. Here at Fi Plan Partners, we look at the overall picture. Data shows that there has been a clear downward trend of inflation since 2022, going from 9% down to 3.35%. However, when you drill down and analyze the data, it shows that inflation has been in an upward trend over the last few months, which is concerning. It may be a down from 2022, but the Fed is watching this concerning up trend, where inflation doesn’t seem to be going down to the 2% rate target that we’ve been used to over the last few decades. It’s stubbornly staying above 3%. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show that inflation has dropped below the 3% range. If it does, it will break the recent uptrend in place since June of 2023, which is a multi-month trend, not a short one. This is something we are watching very closely and are not very optimistic about because we have seen inflation surprise us to the upside over the last few months. This might be something that the Fed is seeing that the market isn’t anticipating. We’d like to see inflation come down and continue on a downward trend. The Fed was late to the game, so to speak, and the fear was that the Fed would drop rates too fast and that inflation would come back bigger than ever. The biggest risk now is that they step away too soon. Traditionally, inflation comes in multiple waves due to the Fed backing away too soon. When the Fed steps away too soon, and money starts to be printed again, inflation comes rolling back. It’s really important that the Fed does not count this as a win. At the end of last year, there was a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve taking a victory lap and claiming success over inflation, which is a little concerning, considering we still see inflation well above the target. This is something we plan to keep an eye on moving forward. The Magnificent Seven Over the last year, there’s been a lot of talk about the Magnificent Seven and how concentrated the market has been. The Magnificent Seven are the seven largest companies in the world and makeup about 30% of the S&P 500. This number is outsized compared to historical comparisons but can be justified. According to the S&P 500 2023 earnings performance data, the Magnificent Seven grew earnings by 31% while the other 493 stocks grew at 1.9%, putting the overall S&P 500 growth at 6.2%. In the fourth quarter alone, the Magnificent Seven grew earnings by 60%, contributing to the S&P 500 overall being up a total of 7% in earnings. The remaining 493 of the stocks were down about 3% on earnings. Moving forward, we would like more broad-based participation, especially on the earning side. In 2024, the Magnificent Seven is estimated to contribute about 21% to earnings growth, with the rest of the 493 stocks estimated to contribute around 6%. It’ll be impo

We are thrilled to welcome Robert L. Moody III, CFP®, CEPA®, to our Financial Planning team at Fi Plan Partners. In this episode, he sits down with our President and CEO, Greg Powell, to discuss his passion for working with clients as they pursue a life that is Better, Richer, and Fuller. Robert brings a wealth of experience and expertise to our team, and we are confident that his skills will be a valuable asset to our clients. Watch to learn more about Robert and his role at Fi Plan Partners.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Robert Moody here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Exciting News and Introductions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Get ready for an insightful episode as the Portfolio Team discusses market performance, interest rates, and dividends. Watch the full episode and see what they have to say.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company. The First Trust S&P 500 Index Dividend Payout Profile dated 2/1/2024 is the source of data for this episode regarding dividends.The post Payouts and Rate Cuts first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Gas Prices and Interest Rates After the last Federal Reserve meeting in November, the market started pricing in six rate cuts based on the Fed’s optimistic outlook on inflation. Since then, we’ve talked on these vlogs about how we don’t believe that will likely occur. This will be the first time the Fed comes together and pushes out what they think are the expectations for this year. The Fed will likely have to look at two recent instances to see what type of impact it has on inflation and interest rates. One of those items is the weather. We’ve all noticed it’s a little colder here in Alabama in the last few weeks. However, that doesn’t impact oil production. Where it does impact oil production is in North Dakota, where we produce a lot of oil. It was so cold that they had to stop producing oil. Typically, weather-related oil production cuts involve hurricanes going through the Gulf. This time, it was the cold weather that caused the halt. This is the first time in a long time that this has happened, resulting in oil production in North Dakota dropping by a million barrels a day. That is a lot of oil coming off the market that has yet to bleed into the gas market, as it will take some time. We expect that it may have an inflationary impact on oil down the road. Shipping Containers and The Fed The impact of the Red Sea and the Middle East conflict on shipping has worsened. The recently released data shows that parts of the shipping lanes are now 225% higher in cost than they were just four weeks ago. We all remember shipping in 2021, and it seemed like something the Fed called transitory. However, it turned out to be much worse than transitory. Because of this, we would be surprised if the Fed used that word this time. We expect them to be more cautious and blow off what appears to be these one-off situations, which we expect will cause prices to go higher in the near term. It would be hard for the Fed to project strong rate cuts and inflation being beaten when we see these cost inputs coming in quickly, right into their meetings. We’re watching it closely as we feel like this is something the Fed has on its radar. Global Markets Something we like to do in our vlogs is cover topics that clients and business partners ask us about throughout the previous week. One topic that came up last week was why, in most of our strategies, we heavily overweight the US stock market compared to international markets. In this episode, we show a chart that looks at annual global equity returns from 2011. On that chart, you will see that US markets have enjoyed fairly consistent outperformance over other markets. We have been overweight in US markets throughout this period of outperformance. Looking forward, we are focused on where economic growth is expected to be favorable. The current consensus global GDP expectations favor the US as growth expectations increase. The US is the only economy globally trending higher on recent reports. Fundamentals for 2024 favor the US. We are not saying some international exposure doesn’t make sense because it offers some diversification, but the US economy and markets look to continue its outperformance in the near term. Markets and The US Dollar The Fed is meeting this week to see what to do with interest rates. However, there’s another meeting this week that isn’t getting the notoriety it should, which is the Treasury quarterly refunding meeting. This meeting has a significant impact on markets. In August, the Treasury decided to issue more long-term debt for the first time in three years, which had a big negative impact on the market. At the same time, yields rose, and the dollar spiked. In November, they reversed course and started to issue more short-term debt, which had the opposite effect on the market then. The stock market soared, and the dollar and yields went down. They have another meeting this week, so it will be essential to see if they go the short-term or long-term route. Yields are in a different spot than last year’s end, so it will be interesting to see how the markets digest what is decided.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance

As the world’s most widely used currency for international transactions, the US dollar has been the dominant reserve currency for decades. However, recent discussions have raised the possibility of the dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. In this episode, Trey Booth delves into the implications of such a shift and what it could mean for the global economy.   Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Will The US Dollar Remain The Reserve Currency? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join us for a discussion with the Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners as they delve into the latest developments in the Middle East, the upcoming election, and more. They provide valuable insights into these critical areas, giving you a well-rounded view of the current economic landscape and how it impacts markets. Don’t miss this opportunity to stay informed. Tune in to watch the full episode.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Conflicts Near and Far first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

The year has started off with choppy markets as the uncertainty of the Fed cutting interest rates continues to cause volatility. Tune in to watch this full episode to hear what the Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners has to say about this topic and more.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Reserved Optimism first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

While the media may only be reporting on surface-level headlines, we like to provide our viewers with a behind-the-scenes look at what’s really going on in the market. Tune in to watch this full episode and learn more about the topics you need to know about as we kick off the new year.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.The post Beyond the Market Headlines first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join us for this week’s episode where Ty Miller shares his insights on the different economic indicators that we monitor to gauge the health of the economy. Ty breaks down each indicator and explains how it affects businesses and consumers alike. Tune in to learn more.     Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Economic Indicators first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In this episode, Mark Hume provides valuable insights on the significance of umbrella policies and how they can be essential in protecting your assets. He gives real-life examples of situations where an umbrella policy could have made all the difference in protecting individuals and families from financial ruin. Whether it’s a car accident or a slip-and-fall incident, an umbrella policy provides an additional layer of liability coverage that goes beyond the limits of your standard insurance policies. Tune in to this episode to learn more about the importance of umbrella policies and how they can give you peace of mind.   Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Importance of an Umbrella Policy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Home insurance costs have been on the rise in recent years. This trend of charging more for less coverage has become increasingly common with insurance companies. In this week’s educational episode, Ashley Page delves into the reasons behind this phenomenon. Among the factors contributing to this trend are increased risks associated with weather-related events, a rise in fraudulent claims, and increased costs of rebuilding and repair. As homeowners, it’s important to understand these factors and make informed decisions when choosing insurance policies. Tune in to learn more about this trend and how you can protect your home and finances.   Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Home Insurance first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join us for this week’s episode where the Portfolio Team goes over the investors’ wish list, providing insights and analysis on specific items, and explores the latest forecasts for interest rates in 2024.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Rate Cut Grinch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Jobs As we look forward to 2024, we also want to reflect on 2023. We came into this year with many economists calling for a recession and a significant slowdown in jobs. Those economists have been wrong, as the job market has stayed strong throughout the year. Last week, the jobs report showed that the US economy added another solid month of job growth, adding 199,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, which is much better than what economists expected. Job gains occurred in health care and government, with a meaningful increase in manufacturing, which got a boost from workers returning from a labor strike. We are watching the loss of retail jobs because it’s no secret that technology and e-commerce play a role in those job losses. One theme we will observe in 2024 is the impact technology and artificial intelligence will have on the economy and markets next year. So, it’s great to see a strong jobs report, but as we’ve seen throughout the year, strong economic reports have kept the Fed in the spotlight to see what they will say about keeping rates higher for longer. We celebrated the strong jobs report last week, but there is a concern that it will keep the Federal Reserve in the picture and give them options to continue their fight to slow down the economy. We will be keeping an eye on this as we head into 2024. The Fed Good economic data puts the Federal Reserve in a box, and this week, we will get reports on CPI, inflation, and the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. It’s widely expected that the Fed will hold rates where they are. What is interesting to see is what the market has been doing while the Fed has been meeting. From the Fed’s September meeting to the meeting in November, the 10-year treasury moved from 4.35% to 4.77%. The Fed talked in their meeting about how the market had tightened economic conditions without them having to raise rates. Interest rates went up and tightened economic conditions, which is what the Fed wants to do to bring inflation down. Since the November meeting, the 10-year treasury has gone from 4.7% to 4.14%. The market has loosened economic conditions and set the stage for what could be higher inflation, which is against what the Fed would like. Reports say that the market anticipates the Fed cutting rates sometime next year. However, that will be hard for them to do if inflation remains above the 2% target. We’re currently at a high end of 5.5%. Inflation is expected to be somewhere between 3%-3.9% this week, which is lower and on the correct trend, but in reality, it’s not at the preferred 2%. We’re big fans of the free market and expect the market to be right most times, but the market is extremely wrong when predicting what Jerome Powell will do. After the Fed’s December meeting last year, the market expected the Fed funds rate to be 4.3% in December 2023. Today, the Fed funds rate is at 5.5%. The market has consistently expected the Fed to stop hiking rates and start cutting rates. The market has consistently been wrong since the Federal Reserve finally realized that inflation was no longer transitory. They had to do something and stop it. This is the market using optimism over experience to project where the Fed will be. No history shows us that Jerome Powell will cut rates in the face of higher inflation and strong jobs. It’s hard to see a world where rates are coming down without the economy weakening at some point. The trends are conflicting right now, so that’s what we’re watching closely. The Fed will speak this week and maybe push the market back on the right side.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Trends vs. Reality first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

With the end of the year fast approaching, it’s vital to stay on top of important financial tasks like taking your RMD, charitable donations, IRA contributions, and more. In this week’s episode, the Operations Team at Fi Plan Partners shares valuable insights and tips to help you ensure these time-sensitive items are taken care of before the year ends. Watch the full episode to learn more.     Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Sonja McGittigan Operations Specialist Email Sonja McGittigan here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Year-End Deadlines first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Waves of Inflation It was a great November for the stock and bond markets, as the threat and uncertainty of future rate hikes from the Fed have now turned into thoughts of rate cuts next year. While seeing market strength and breadth widen was great, we believe the market’s timeline for rate cuts next year is premature. We, along with the Fed, know that history suggests a second wave of inflation could delay any rate cuts that are currently being discussed. Looking back at different times throughout history when inflation spiked, such as 1910, 1939, 1972, and 2019, there was a second wave of inflation. The Fed has made it clear that they are committed to finishing the job, so rate cuts might be further out than investors are expecting. We would like to see the market up for more substantial reasons, such as corporate earnings and a strong consumer, and not just up on the thought that the Fed will be cutting rates early next year, which, again, we feel is premature based on previous waves of inflation. Rate Cuts vs. Holds The prediction for the Fed funds future rate is going from where we are currently to four rate cuts of 25 basis points going through next year. In a chart shown in this episode, you will see that it appears that there will be more than four cuts and that they are not really in 25-basis point increments. That’s because the Fed funds rate futures market is just predicting the likelihood of a cut. It’s not necessarily saying this is what the rate will be on this specific day. It’s saying the odds are that a cut will take place at this time and possibly be higher or lower than the predicted number. A hold on interest rates is a perfect time period for the market. We prefer that the Fed hold rates instead of cutting them because the S&P 500’s performance has historically been better. It’s a Goldilocks environment as opposed to hiking or cutting rates. At this time, we think that the Fed is done hiking interest rates. Still, if we can prolong cuts, that would be better for the market in the short term since, historically, market performance is significantly better during rate holds rather than rate cuts.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Finish The Job first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join the Portfolio Team as they dive into the recent housing data, interest rates, and historical data surrounding market performance in election years.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Deposits vs. Loans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

The Impact of Inflation on Thanksgiving Every year, we review this data, and it has been rough for the last few years. It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to talk about consumer prices coming down. From 2020, the average consumer prices are up over 20%. However, what we’re going to focus on is just the Thanksgiving dinner part. From 2022 to 2023, the average price of a Thanksgiving dinner has come down from $64 to just over $61, a nice drop in prices. Hopefully, as everyone’s been preparing to sit down with the family, they notice some nice savings. A large percentage of that drop came from the price of turkey. Across the country, a 16-pound turkey will now cost you about $1.61 less. That should be a welcome reprieve right before the Christmas buying season. While we are down from last year, we’re still well above the 2019 level, so more work still needs to be done. However, it has to start somewhere, and we will take the drops where we can get them. Pumpkin pie, a veggie tray, rolls, and sweet potatoes are all higher this year, with everything else being lower.   Market Performance After a year of a very bifurcated market where only a handful of stocks were constantly going up, we are finally starting to see breadth in the market, which we have seen for three weeks. The market has broken through resistance, a welcomed event after failed rally attempts throughout the year. More importantly, we have finally seen a few very strong days with breadth. On November 2nd, we had an eight-to-one day; last Tuesday, we saw a fourteen-to-one day. These are days where there have been a lot more stocks up than down. We look for these types of days to see if the market can sustain strength and rallies. We are hoping we can continue this rally through Thanksgiving week.   Government Shutdown We have already averted a government shutdown once, and from what we can tell, it seems like we’re going to avert it again, at least through the rest of this year. The House and the Senate passed a continuing budget resolution. Portions of that will extend through January 19th, 2024, with the remaining parts extending through February 2nd, 2024. Instead of having everything lumped together, they split into pieces, which might make it easier to get something more permanent passed in the upcoming year.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Thankful Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Are higher interest rates helping or hurting Corporate America? Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Trey Booth go over the details related to this topic.     Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Impact of Interest Rates on Corporate America first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In this episode, the Portfolio Team goes over the data they look at on an ongoing basis to keep a pulse on the economy and the markets. Watch the full episode and hear what they have to say about interest rates, inflation, and other market-moving topics.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Inflation High, Water Levels Low first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

We are coming off a great week for markets, and in this episode, the Portfolio Team goes over the details behind the positivity and tells what this could mean going forward.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.The post Market Momentum? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

We have an important week ahead as the Fed will be in the spotlight. In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team gives an update on our recession watch checklist that clients have been asking about.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post On Fed and Recession Watch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

At Fi Plan Partners, we take great pride in working with business owners to help them build, grow, and sell their businesses. Our goal is to help business owners build valuable companies, have stronger personal financial plans, and align their personal goals. In this episode, you will hear from Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®, Managing Director of Fi Plan Partners. He goes over his Certified Exit Planning Advisor designation and how it has helped him offer specialized services to our business owner clients, as well as a comprehensive strategy around their business and personal financial planning.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Fi Plan Partners and LPL Financial do not offer business valuation services.The post Exit Strategies for Your Business first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team delves into the impact of spiking interest rates, the historical relevance of pre-election years, and the potential effects of the upcoming GDP report on economic forecasts.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Watching Spikes Carefully first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Headwinds The market has a lot of headwinds and uncertainty right now with a conflict in Israel, questions about what the Federal Reserve will do, and a potential government shutdown next month. Still, one bright spot that is a key driver of equity markets is corporate earnings. Third quarter earnings season started strong last week, with some big banks reporting better-than-expected earnings results. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report back-to-back quarters of earnings growth, which is following an earnings recession seen earlier in the year. Analysts are also calling for earnings to continue to grow next year. We are looking to see if profit margins improve for the second quarter. As profit margins fell earlier in the year, we’ve seen many corporations improve efficiency ratios and pass higher costs on to a strong consumer in recent months, leading to higher profits, which has been a pleasant surprise for corporations. While stocks move on earnings reports, the profit margin surprises make company stocks move. As earnings season kicks into gear this week, strong corporate earnings and profits can help the market surpass all the current headwinds.   International Issues Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the current situation with Israel. We wanted to cover what that situation means for the US regarding markets and financials. In this episode, you can see a chart that shows how stocks usually react to geopolitical events. Often, these events happen, and people think they need to sell. One of the interesting things is that this was only the fifth time that the market was up when a major event happened. This time, the market was up 0.3%. It wasn’t up a tremendous amount, but those previous four times where the market was up the day of the event, the max drawdown was 1.5%. On a market scope, it seems to have very little impact. The average drawdown for all these market shock events is 4.7%, which is nothing crazy. Another chart in this episode shows how markets react during recessionary and non-recessionary times. This is something that is hard to translate today. Are we going into a recession? Have we already had a recession?   Oil Prices How will the Israel-Hamas war affect oil prices? The Middle East is a huge oil supplier, and it’s very interesting to see how crude oil could react. On a chart shown in this episode, you will see there have been some ups and downs. However, there have been more ups, especially if you look at the specific Middle East events like the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the 1973 Oil Embargo. All these events, for the most part, resulted in higher oil prices. We will see how this affects the consumer if oil prices start to be elevated again. We saw a huge pop on day one of the war. The next 2-3 weeks will be very important as we see if the market can focus on what’s hopefully good corporate earnings and overpower all of what’s going on geopolitically overseas.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Earnings vs. Geopolitical Events first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Join Jason Hatley for this week’s educational episode, where he reviews the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 that will go into effect starting in 2025. He goes over the details of the new rules including the creation of a retirement savings lost and found database, new increased catch-up limits, and more. Watch this episode and get up to speed on how these changes could affect you.     Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Secure Act 2.0: Provisions Effective in 2025 and Beyond first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

In the latest episode, the Portfolio Team dives into the ongoing issues in Israel and the potential impacts on the US markets. With tensions rising and uncertainty looming, our team provides valuable insights and analysis to keep our listeners informed. Additionally, they provide an update on the current state of the job market. Watch this episode to learn more.   Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Global Tensions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Volatile September Coming into the month of September, we talked about how it’s usually the most volatile month of the year, and history repeated itself as the S&P 500 was down over 5% for the month. One of the biggest drivers of the volatility in September was due to rising interest rates as the 10-year treasury yield rose from 4.1% to end the month up to 4.57%. The rise in yields occurred partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. So, while the fear around higher rates has spooked the markets in the near term, stocks and interest rates usually rise together over time. Interest rates and stock valuations tend to be inversely correlated. While that relationship tends to hold for shorter periods at elevated rates, the S&P 500 Index tends to rise throughout sustained periods of rising interest rates. Looking at rising rates from the early 1960s through this year, only three of the fourteen periods of rising rates led to lower stock returns. The return through these periods shows that the market has averaged 16.3%. So yes, rising rates lead to short-term volatility, but stocks and rates usually rise together over more extended periods. Even if rates stay high or go higher, it doesn’t mean stocks will stay down.   2007 vs. 2023 In this episode, Ty Miller shows a chart that maps out where we were in 2007 to where we are now. The year 2007 is relevant because that was the last time the 10-year Treasury yield was over 4.5%. We have come a long way since then. The S&P 500 was at a price of 1,541, and now it’s over 4,200. In the chart, you can see the similarities in oil, which was $87 a gallon and is now $91. In 2007, Bitcoin didn’t exist, of course. The largest weighting was Exxon, and now the largest stock is Apple. It’s always interesting to go back in history and see that we have made this big circle in terms of yields and what that looked like in 2007.   Government Shutdown We spent all weekend getting ready to talk about a government shutdown, and lo and behold, the unexpected averting of a shutdown has happened as the government was able to work out a deal. The headline we are seeing is saying that Congress has, for now, averted the shutdown. We think this is most likely a 45-day thing, at least. It could go longer, but it puts that hold on for 45 days at least. It was very unexpected as the odds of the Government shutdown were approaching a near certainty, but they were able to get a bipartisan package through. The legislation includes $16 billion of disaster aid, excluding border funding and Ukraine aid. We think the next step here is that Speaker McCarthy’s speakership will be a little challenged. Right now, that’s just speculation based on everything that has happened. Not everyone was for this deal, but enough people were to get it through. Typically, stocks are not correlated at all with government shutdowns. History has shown some up years and some down years during shutdowns. GDP growth has very little correlation as well. As far as that goes, we have a lot more up years than down years. Each government shutdown is a little different. Right now, we have many workers on strike, along with higher gasoline prices. Consumer aid is rolling off, and consumers are picking up on student loan payments. Typically, while looking at these things, while they are a lot of headline risk, the actual results don’t necessarily match the headline risk. So, that’s something to keep in mind.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender and are not government backed. Cryptocurrencies are non-traditional investments, resulting in a different tax treatment than currency. Federal, state or foreign governments may restrict the use and

We are excited to announce that LPL is rolling out new enhancements to your account statements aimed at providing you with even greater transparency and clarity. In this informative video, you will learn about the upcoming changes, including improved visuals, simplified language, and more detailed information about your investments. Watch the video now to discover what’s coming!   Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Sonja McGittigan Operations Specialist Email Sonja McGittigan here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Updates to Your LPL Statements first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Pre-Election Today, we have a chart to help us talk about pre-election years compared to 2023. They say that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme, and it’s remarkable how, on the chart, it shows that every pre-election year average has lined up to be symmetrical. There was a big difference in March due to the bank failures where the government stepped in and helped, so it didn’t expand. But now we’re in this time where the trend has flatlined. Historically, it has stayed flat through November, before a Santa Claus rally near the end of November and into December. Again, there are no guarantees, and history doesn’t have to repeat itself, but we find it interesting when you see something like this. Eurozone Stocks Last week, we talked about how a government shutdown, which is looking more likely to happen on October 1st, usually doesn’t lead to a long-term downtrend in stocks. We had a client ask about adding more exposure to eurozone stocks when the US is in the middle of a shutdown, so we wanted to discuss that. While we are big believers in diversification across asset classes, sectors, and different markets, we wanted to show two charts of why we remain overweight to US markets and underweight eurozone markets. The first chart shown in this episode reveals the Global Purchasing Managers Composite Index. The PMI is an index that shows the direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions. A reading above 50 represents an expansion, and a reading under 50 symbolizes a contraction. The current PMI of the eurozone is 46.7, which reveals contraction. The current reading of US PMI is 50.2, which means expansion. The second chart in this episode shows earnings estimates trending up for the S&P 500 and earnings estimates trending down for the European index. Corporate earnings are a key market driver, and estimates look better in the US than in the European index. So, in summary, we are allocated heavily towards US markets even with the threat of a government shutdown because the US economy and corporate earnings estimates are trending better than the eurozone. The Federal Reserve The markets reacted negatively to what the Fed gave us on Wednesday last week, but why did the markets react that way? The Fed did exactly what we expected them to do when we talked on Monday’s vlog last week. We expected them not to take any action, and the Fed left rates exactly where they are. However, the market quickly fell off 2.8% to close the week. This is likely due to what the Fed said they would do going forward. The Federal Reserve, at each of their meetings, projects where they expect the Fed funds rate, which they directly control, to be next year and in the following few years. In their July meeting, they expected the average Fed funds rate to be 4.6% in 2024. In this most recent meeting, they increased that up to 5.1%. That’s effectively saying that there will be two more rate hikes, on average, between where we are today and where everyone expected us to be over 2024. That is a massive tightening without having to do a single thing, and the market immediately reacted with higher interest rates and lower stocks. Looking globally, the ECB didn’t imply higher rates; instead, they increased rates again, even though their economy is weakening. The European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 25 base points. This week, the Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates by another 25 base points as well. Our Fed is projecting strength while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England must continue to hike rates, even though they’re slowing. This is something that is concerning. The international market seems to be weakening, and the US appears to be holding up. We may be the cleanest house on a bad street, but as Thomas Sowell once said, there are no absolutes in economics; everything’s relative. So, there’s no absolute good here, but the US looks much stronger with our Fed being able to pause and project strength with the global central banks having to still actively try and weaken their economy. We’re watching this closely, especially with the markets watching and a major dip to close the week last week.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial

Join Jason Hatley for this week’s educational episode, where he reviews the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 that will go into effect starting in 2024. He goes over the details of the new rules, including changes in SIMPLE IRA employer matching, the ability to roll over unused 529 plan funds, and more. Watch this episode and get up to speed on how these changes could affect you starting next year.   Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. This material was created for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as ERISA, tax, legal or investment advice. If you are seeking investment advice specific to your needs, such advice services must be obtained on your own separate from this educational material. A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Secure Act 2.0: Provisions Effective in 2024 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Government Shutdowns We are watching news out of Washington D.C. this week for what is expected to be a few weeks of tough negotiations to try and avoid a government shutdown on October 1st. Negotiations are set to begin this week when both chambers of Congress are set to be in session for the first time since July. There is no doubt that investors will be watching negotiations closely for potential impacts on the market. We have been looking back in history to see what impact previous government shutdowns have had on the markets, and history says the market takes government shutdowns in stride. We looked at research into the past 20 government shutdowns since 1976 and the impact on markets and found that the market was almost exactly flat after adding all the stoppages together. While government shutdowns cause initial volatility, the market action has depended more on other factors like corporate earnings. When looking at the specific performance of certain government shutdowns that lasted longer, market performance hasn’t been impacted as much as investors might think. Even in the 2018/2019 standoff, the longest in history, the S&P 500 rose almost 8%. As always, we analyze historical market performance in preparing for events like government shutdowns, which will undoubtedly be a hot topic over the next two weeks. There are no guarantees, and every event is different, but history says the market takes shutdowns in stride.   Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve will meet this week and make their announcement about the current rate policy. The market fully expects no action and for the Fed Funds Rate to remain at a high-end level of 5.5%. The next meeting will be on November 1st. The Fed has spoken a lot about how they will be very data-dependent in their decisions. We’re at a critical inflection point where we’ve seen inflation bottom in July but increase in the last two inflation reports. Is this just an anomaly caused by potential increases in oil, or is this a trend that the Fed needs to keep an eye on? This is happening at a time when the data may stop due to a shutdown. When the government shuts down, most people don’t notice, and the reason for that is that the market doesn’t have an impact. Most people besides us don’t notice that government reports like inflation and jobs don’t come out during the shutdown. This time may be different, with the Fed noticing very much that the government is shut down. If that important CPI report that we are supposed to get in mid-October, or the jobs data in early October does not come out, what data will there be for them to make their very important interest rate decision? This is something the Federal Reserve will have to watch closely, which is why this is such an important pivot point. Our research partners, Strategas, looked over 2,000 years of economic history, and in those 2,000 years across 24 countries, they found 62 instances of higher prices or inflation. Of those 62 instances, only eight saw prices go up and then come back down and stay down. Every other instance, they saw prices rise, come down, and then back up again for at least a second, maybe even a third wave. The Federal Reserve wants to keep on that because they do not want that second wave to come. We saw prices come down, then saw a tiny hitch up. Does that hitch continue, and are we looking at a second wave? That’s something the Fed very much wants to keep from happening. If they don’t have the data to support that, what are they going to be relying their decision on? We’re going to watch this closely, and the markets will start watching very closely as we get close, not just to the next Fed meeting, but those traditional data releases.   Consumer Stress The Consumer Stress Indicator measures food at home, mortgage rates, and gasoline prices. They lump them all together and get a number. For this cycle, we peaked at 24 on the Consumer Stress Indicator, which is high. It’s come down steadily down to 14%. We’re starting to moderate that decline, but 14% is still about 40% higher than the indicator average throughout the 2010s. Right now, we’re at 14%, which is good. Do we continue to moderate back down to that 8% number or flatten out? That will be interesting to see since we have many headwinds that the consumer is facing. Gasoline prices are now positive year-over-year for the first time in seven months. At the beginning of the year, gas prices showed some substantial improvement for the consumer, but now they’re coming back up. The amount of workers on strike in the United States has gone up. We have many factors to consider when it comes to consumer stress. One interesting statistic that lumps in with the Consumer Stress Indicator is the chart in this video that shows Consumer Pain by city. Miami has consistently been at the top; however, Detroit overtook them at 10.7%. It will be interesting

Stay informed on the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 with this week’s educational episode. In this episode, Jason Hatley breaks down some of the new rules, such as RMD age changes, and provides insights on how they could affect your Financial Blueprint.   Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. This material was created for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as ERISA, tax, legal or investment advice. If you are seeking investment advice specific to your needs, such advice services must be obtained on your own separate from this educational material. Fixed and Variable annuities are suitable for long-term investing, such as retirement investing. Gains from tax-deferred investments are taxable as ordinary income upon withdrawal. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company. Withdrawals made prior to age 59 ½ are subject to a 10% IRS penalty tax and surrender charges may apply. Variable annuities are subject to market risk and may lose value. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Secure Act 2.0: What’s New for 2023 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Oil Rig Counts Last week marked the tenth consecutive week where the oil rig count in the US didn’t go up. In fact, it has pulled back. The total number of rigs in the US is now 106 off of its all-time high, but why is that important? We’ve seen an increase in the price of gas at the pump over the summer, and with that rig count continuing to fall, it makes it unlikely that US oil producers will be ramping up production to cause that price to fall. What we want to see happen often is when prices rise, which incentivizes production, which then eventually brings prices down. However, you need rigs to produce more oil. Seeing the pullback in the oil rig count is concerning that we may see gas prices continue to rise or at least stay at elevated levels. We see that flow through directly to the market when you compare consumer discretionary stocks to oil stocks. In the July CPI print, when inflation was at 3%, consumer stocks greatly outperformed energy stocks. Since then, oil prices have skyrocketed above $80 a barrel, and we’ve seen all that gain reverse. Is the market expecting consumers to pick between filling their gas tanks or purchasing discretionary goods? The market expects that consumers will have to choose to fill their gas tanks; therefore, we’re seeing consumer stocks go down. We are watching closely to see how this pullback in oil rigs bleeds through to consumer stocks and how that impacts the markets.     Volatile Markets We had some great feedback and conversations with viewers of the vlog last week, specifically tied to markets being historically volatile in September. September is traditionally the worst month for the markets, but every time period is different. We want to cover that intra-year pullbacks in the market are entirely normal and don’t necessarily mean the market will be down after September. So, while technical evidence supports the case for the potential for a longer-term bull market trend, investors should expect some pullbacks along the way. To show this, we share a chart in this episode that compares intra-year price performance and maximum pullbacks for the S&P 500. At a high level, the top row of the chart shows that even years with double-digit gains into August often experience sizable pullbacks over the remainder of the year. On the right of the first row, you can see that going back to 1950, the average pullback of the S&P 500 has been down 8.6%, but the average final return has been up 5.2%. To break down the data further, the quintile ranked the performance of the S&P 500 from December 31 to July 31 for each year going back to 1950. We then analyzed the corresponding average returns in the middle column and maximum pullbacks for the remainder of the year for each quintile group on the far-right column. As always, there are no guarantees; even good years have historically seen pullbacks at times throughout the year, and it is normal for the markets to experience. We use this data to take advantage of market pullbacks when opportunities present themselves.     Employment Report We got the August employment report a couple of weeks ago, and non-farm payrolls increased by 187,000, beating expectations. The education and health services were up due to schools starting back, as well as leisure and hospitality. We did have a decline in the truck transportation industry because one of the major players there dissolved, but overall, it was a solid report. One of the headlines that you’ll see that may be confusing is that the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%. All that gain in the unemployment rate was due to an increase in the labor force. The labor force is people actively looking for jobs or working. There were 736,000 more people who entered the labor force this past month. That’s a big deal because, since Covid, we’ve lacked in the labor force participation. We’ve had many people, for whatever reason, leave the workforce. It’s nice that this is our highest labor force participation since Covid. If you look back at what we’ve seen so far, year to date, one interesting point of the job market is that small businesses, which are businesses with under 500 employees, have made up 100% of the job growth year to date. Big businesses are pulling back from their employment, while small businesses are adding to it. That’s very interesting, but we’re seeing small business hiring slow down. We want to keep an eye on that because the IRS is starting to pull back on the business tax refunds they’re giving out, specifically for small businesses. They, of course, have the employee retention tax credit this year, but now the IRS is starting to take these claims more seriously. They are taking further steps to detect falsified claims to try and ensure everything’s legit to cut back on what they’re given out as they see this healthy job market that’s led

History of September Going back to 1950, September has historically been the worst month for the stock market and the only month of the year where both the average and median returns are negative. September also has the lowest positivity rate, meaning only 43.8% of the time is the market up in September. There’s much disagreement around why that is. There’s some thought that when people return from summer vacations, they want to right-size their portfolios; therefore, some trading goes on. There’s also the consideration that people use this time to get their taxes in order ahead of the New Year. There’s a lot of talk about consumer spending picking up as people take money out of the market to pay off any debts from vacation, school, and other things that might come up in the fourth quarter. So, whatever the reason is, it does seem to be consistent and produces lower-than-average returns. Now, this obviously isn’t a guarantee of what will happen, but it seems consistent and something we are watching.   Technology We continue to see the impact of higher interest rates on the market. One sector we want to talk about is the technology sector, which has been volatile over the past year. Historically, technology has been a sector that has underperformed in rising-rate environments. During the second half of last year and early this year, the technology sector exhibited a relatively strong inverse correlation to interest rates. Technology stocks traded down as interest rates increased, which was typical behavior in previous market patterns. However, the move in rates from the low threes to the low fours during May-July of this year (based on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield) was uniquely accompanied by technology strength. So, we saw that technology showed strength despite rising rates due to the enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence. But, as the enthusiasm around AI started to dissipate in August, we saw the tech sector underperform a bit as rate sensitivity returned. This scenario is one example of how unique the past 12 months have been in the market and how interest rates and artificial intelligence have changed certain aspects of the stock and bond markets. We think this will continue to cause overall market choppiness, especially in the tech sector, and will continue to keep an eye on it.   The Consumer The consumer makes up around two-thirds of the economy, so it is important to always pay attention to it. Back-to-school season is a great time to see how the consumers are doing. Around 53% of back-to-school shoppers plan on using debit cards this year compared to 45% last year. Credit card interest rates are up, so it’s interesting to see that many people are choosing to take money straight out of their bank account with a debit card instead of going with the higher interest rate of credit cards and then paying it off. Since January 2020, overall spending is up around 19.5%, especially in the entertainment, retail, and recreation space. Grocery and transportation are only 15% and 13% higher, below the overall average. We’ve talked a lot about inflation with gas and food prices, but overall, grocery and transportation aren’t up quite as much as some other sectors. It is interesting to see how the consumers are doing and adjusting to increased rates and life post-COVID.   Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post September Blues? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Bonds Last week, we discussed how higher interest rates have been the leading cause of market volatility in recent weeks. However, this week, we want to talk about the benefits of higher rates. For the first time in four years, real yields from bonds are once again providing investors with a rate of return that outpaces inflation. We like to focus on real rates of return because it shows a bond’s actual return by subtracting inflation from a bond’s current yield. On August 18, the 10-year yield was 4.26%, which is above the 3.2% year-over-year inflation rate, according to the CPI report from July. That’s a real yield of 1.1% and a welcome change for bond investors. After four years of negative real yields, bonds are once again providing investors with a rate of return that outpaces the CPI. Bonds are essential to a diversified investment strategy, so we will continue to follow rates closely.   Debt For every receiver of higher interest rates, there is a payer of higher interest rates, and the federal government is the largest payer of interest in the world. A chart shown in this episode reveals the net interest over time versus the 10-year treasury. You will see that the red line, which is interest paid as a percent of government revenue, has spiked up to 14% of revenue in interest payments. That spike has happened in excess, higher in 10-year treasury yields. Why and how is that? It’s because, unlike the American consumer, the US government debt is heavily weighted towards short-term debt. Over 50% of US sovereign debt outstanding is for three years or shorter, and over 30% is less than a year. So, as interest rates have been going up, that directly impacts the US debt much quicker than US consumers. Over 90% of US mortgages have 30-year fixed rates. The US consumer is locked in long-term while the US government is not. As interest rates are spiking, we’re seeing that spike also occur. This really hits the road when debt servicing costs eclipse 14% of US government revenues. That causes the government to tighten its belt, cut spending, and find ways to reduce costs because that leaves less money after interest is paid. Interest paid is the first dollar out, leaving less money for everything else. You’ll probably start seeing a lot of talk of austerity and some tightening of budgets in areas.   Drugs A large healthcare component was part of the Inflation Reduction Act that passed over a year ago. The Biden Administration didn’t announce which drugs were built in for price caps when the law passed, and tomorrow, that announcement will be made. The ten drugs will have price caps going forward on what the drug companies can charge. The goal of that is to bring the cost of healthcare down. However, there’s the other side of the coin. Every dollar paid out for prescription drugs goes from somebody to a company. The cost then is incurred by these companies, and that’s not been priced in, so we’re about to see a political silly season. Even though these price controls haven’t even been announced yet, eight cases are already going through the works to challenge them. This will go into political facilities and the courts for the next few years. We’re going to watch this closely because it could have a negative impact of up to 8% a year in annual earnings on these companies, depending on which drugs are announced and what the prices are. This is something big we’re watching. Some of that belt-tightening we’ll likely see.   Driveways A popular saying in our industry is, “Housing punches above its weight for the economy.” Housing has done an excellent job of holding up our economy while some other factors have fallen back. We got July’s new home sales report, which was strong again. New single-family home sales increased 4.4%. Year-over-year, sales are up 31.5%, which is a big deal. Sales in July were specifically strong in the Midwest and the West. The median price of a new home sold was about $437,000. With the increase in sales, prices are starting to come down. Prices are down 8.7% from a year ago and down over 12% from last year’s peak. Supply is starting to catch up on the new home side, but we are still facing problems with the increase in interest rates. Assuming a 20% down payment on a new home, with the rise in mortgage rates from this year and last year, that’s a 29% increase in the monthly payment. You’re saving 12% on the home purchase but paying 29% more monthly. We need prices to decrease further. Supply is up 150% for new homes since 2022, which is huge. As you can imagine, the supply of existing homes is relatively light because 90% of people are locked into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at a 3-4% rate, so not many people are looking to move and start paying 7.5% on mortgage rates.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell he

In this educational episode, Ty Miller takes a deep dive into inflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, and deflation. He explains what each of them means and how they impact the economy differently.   Don’t miss this enlightening discussion!   Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Understanding the Four Types of Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Choppy Conditions Major market indexes ended lower for the third straight week as the 10-year Treasury yield remained near a 16-year high. Investors believe the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance even with declining inflation. The S&P 500 was down 2.11% last week and is down 4.06% in the past month as the market has had trouble with mixed corporate earnings and higher yields. Energy and Healthcare, however, are in the green and are two sectors we have liked and continue to allocate funds into. We did get good news on retail earnings and a strong consumer, but the good reports were followed immediately by a cloudy outlook due to rising rates. The bottom line is that we will continue to see a choppy market until yields stabilize and we get better clarity from the Federal Reserve. Another headwind that the market is facing is seasonality. Going back to 1950, August and September have historically been two of the most challenging for the markets. Research shows that the average return for August has been flat, and the average return for September has been down 0.7%. So, higher yields and seasonality can be blamed for the market choppiness.   Consumer Data We often hear people asking about the Fed being stubborn when it comes to leaving rates elevated. In September, the Fed is expected to make another rate decision, and right now, the expectation is that they will pause. We don’t anticipate a cut in the foreseeable future. This has many people wondering when the Fed will start cutting rates. With the consumer data that we just got, along with wage growth, the job market, the housing market, etc., there are still many elements out there that the Fed is looking at that is causing them to be hesitant to cut rates. The retail sales report is one consumer data point they are keeping an eye on, showing a solid 0.7% increase for the month. The Amazon Prime Day we had back in July boosted a portion of that. On top of that, the job market and the housing market are also reports that the Fed watches. The Fed is continuing to keep an eye on inflation because historical data shows that it comes in waves. Usually, inflation doesn’t come down and stays down. We’ve come from 9% to 3%, but that doesn’t usually mean we see the end of inflation. Historically, there’s only been a 13% occurrence there that has happened. So, the Fed is looking at all these numbers, factoring in the reality that we may have another wave of inflation to hit us before it’s over. On average, the second wave started around 30 months after the first peak. This explains why the Fed is being stubborn when it comes to cutting rates and watching inflation.     Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Stubborn Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Corporate Earnings In a world where the market has a lot of negative news and uncertainty to digest, it’s important to stay focused on one of the biggest drivers of stock price movement: corporate earnings. A chart in this episode reveals the percentage of corporations beating earnings estimates in the second quarter of 2019. Also, on the far-right side of the chart, you will see that 77% of corporations exceed expectations. That’s above the average of 76.7%. As a portfolio committee, we review this chart on an ongoing basis to provide us and our clients with insight into the earnings beat rate for the companies that comprise the S&P 500 Index. As many investors may know, equity analysts often adjust their corporate earnings estimates higher or lower on an ongoing basis. While these estimates may provide insight into the expected financial performance of a given company, they are not guaranteed. From the second quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of this year, the average earnings beat rate for the companies that comprise the index was 76.7%. The percentage of companies in the index that reported higher-than-expected earnings increased over the past two quarters. We’ve seen the market follow suit with better performance. Corporate Earnings are coming in better-than-expected matters. However, the current quarter results in the chart shown reflect earnings results for 384 of the 503 companies that comprise the S&P 500 index and could change over the coming weeks, so we’ll continue to observe this.   Inflation The most recent inflation report came in where it was expected. The headline inflation was 3.2%, slightly higher than last month’s 3%, and core inflation came in at 4.7% year-over-year, which is a 0.2% month-over-month gain. The trend is still down, which is where we want, so why does a slight tick-up pique our interest? And why did bond and interest rates go up after that slight tick-up even though most of the market feels like the Fed has beaten inflation? Our partners at Strategas dug through 2,100 years of economic data across 24 separate countries and found 62 instances where inflation was an issue for that country. Of those 62 inflation episodes, only eight didn’t see a peak, trough, and then another hike. So, for those keeping track, that’s only 13% of instances across 2,100 years of economic data where inflation had come down and then stayed down and where inflation was beaten once and for all the first time. That’s why you hear Jerome Powell and the individuals in the Fed be more aggressive and keep interest rates high. They want to project strength. They are still focused on inflation even though we’ve come down from above 9% to now 3.2%. That is a great downward trend and better than what we expected, but this is where economic data impacts consumers most directly, is from inflation. That’s why the Fed, the fiscal side of the market, is watching closely because this directly affects you as a consumer. If prices come down but start going back up, it will be hard to get that back under control. We’re watching this closely because the odds are not on our side. We don’t expect to see rates go down anytime soon, either. That’s really where we see consumers and borrowers being impacted. If the Fed is fighting this potential of higher rates again, they won’t bring it down to have to turn around and raise them again. They’d rather keep them steady. That’s why inflation is down 3.2%, the core at 4.7%, and the Fed Funds Rate is at 5.5%. They want to stay well above the rate of inflation. The market doesn’t seem to price that in or expect it. In general, the market seemed shocked that the Feds said they want to keep inflation down and will keep those rates high.     Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member

Bond Valuations We’ve been getting many questions about bonds and interest rates recently, so we wanted to give an update on bond prices relative to changes in interest rates. Bonds are an essential piece in a diversified investment strategy, and the best way to provide an update on bonds is by sharing data specific to this topic. In this episode, you will see a chart that shows the current price of eight of the bond indices we like to track, including corporate and government bonds. All eight are trading below par, which is the value if held to maturity. Over the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve, through its inflation fight, has raised the federal funds target rate, sending it soaring to 5.50% as of July 26, 2023. As many investors know, bond prices and yields typically move in opposite directions. Therefore, an increase or decrease in bond prices could indicate that yields have fallen or risen, respectively, over the period. Interestingly, while not captured by the time frame in the chart shown, seven of the eight bond indices referenced stood above their par values as of December 15, 2021. Current valuations have fallen below par due to the Federal Reserve raising rates. We use this chart and analysis as we manage client portfolios, and while volatility has provided an opportunity in the bond market with bonds trading below par, we know to be cautious. The Fed might not be done with raising rates; therefore, certain bonds remain under pressure. We are taking advantage of certain sectors of the bond market by purchasing bond positions below par, knowing that if held to maturity, these bonds will mature at a higher price than where we bought them. This is a dynamic we haven’t had to deal with in some time. We are seeing this impact on bond yields, the money market, CD rates, as well as other areas. We are taking advantage of bonds at a lower valuation. Not that this current interest rate environment will continue, but looking back through the history of rates, the only time that we had double-digit interest rates was in 1978-1981, which was a volatile time for bonds. We have a great opportunity here to take advantage of this while, at the same time, watching closely.   Money Supply Last month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, and according to current data by the CME Fed Watch Tool, there’s only about a 30% chance of another hike for the rest of the year. These figures can change, but the dialogue will shift to when we can expect a cut. Currently, the Fed is content with maintaining rates while they perform QT before possible cuts in the first half of next year. Some may wonder why the Fed is determined to keep these elevated rates with inflation seemingly coming down. When you couple the recent commodity inflation we have seen, such as oil, gas, steel, copper, etc., with the recent turn in the money supply, you will see that the Fed simply wants to make sure they kill inflation and not re-live a 1970 reflation case. CPI, the primary inflation metric used, typically lags the money supply by 16 months. We had a historic rise in money supply during COVID due to the unprecedented stimulus provided, which led to inflation of around 9%. Since then, the money supply has been steadily decreasing and negative this year until recently. Average money supply growth in the 5% range is nothing to be concerned about. That would correlate with the 2% inflation target the Fed has set for us for years. However, if we see this supply rise rapidly again, we would be concerned about another 1970s-type reflation case. It appears the Fed is paying close attention to this, and that’s why the rate cut expectations have been pushed back until next year.       Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate

Watch this educational episode to hear Ashley Page talk about the global economic impact that AI could have over the next ten years as well as what pros and cons there might be surrounding the development of artificial intelligence.     Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Artificial Intelligence and the Global Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Strength We continue to get questions and comments from clients who are surprised at how well the market has performed this year and are asking if it can continue considering that at the beginning of the year, some economists expected the economy to be in a recession by this point. One of the measures we utilize to quantify and compare market breadth and the market’s underlying strength is the percentage of stocks trading above their longer-term 200-day moving average. As a general rule, if a stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, it is considered to be in an uptrend, and vice versa, when prices are below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, the higher percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages implies buying pressure, and market strength is more widespread, suggesting the market’s advance is likely sustainable. Currently, 73% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving average. This is compared to 48% at the end of 2022. The composition of breadth, underlying strength, and leadership has turned increasingly bullish as the highest sector readings include technology, industrials, energy, and consumer discretionary. We use this data in our day-to-day management of client portfolios. This strength across the market is due to resilient economic data in the U.S., receding inflation pressures, and expectations for the end of the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign have all contributed to this notable expansion in market breadth, which is positive.   Savers and Spenders As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, making the top end of the Fed’s fund rate 5.5%. That’s a double-edged sword situation of higher interest rates. The good news is that this environment is rewarding savers right now. You can get north of 5% by just sitting in the money market, which we’re enjoying providing to clients right now. You can get excess of that if you’re willing to take on more risk in corporate bonds. The other side of that coin, however, is the cost to spenders. The 30-year mortgage rate, credit card interest rates, and car loan interest rates from 1995 up to the last year have consistently come down. We’ve seen a sharp spike where borrowing costs have harmed spenders. In other words, there’s no free lunch. Savers are getting more on their money, but that money has to come from somewhere. This is an altruistic scenario where money is coming from spenders who now are paying higher interest rates. It’s a delicate balance that the Feds are navigating. At what point do we benefit the savers too much at the expense of the spenders to where we see the economy dip into a recession where spenders can no longer sustain these rates? Market participants anticipate at least one more Fed rate hike going forward, but that should be about it. We expect rates to rise slightly from here on out, but we’ll see where this delicate balancing act plays out.   Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones industrial average, the oldest stock market we follow in the US, was up for 13 consecutive days. This streak tied the 2nd longest streak from January 2nd to January 20th of 1987. The longest streak belongs to 1897, where the Dow started at 39 and ended at 43. This time, we started at a little over 33,000 and ended up over 35,000. That streak has since ended, but the interesting point is that despite the great run in January of 1987, the market later got hit hard in October of 1987. This time, the Dow was only up 5.3% when the streak was going, which is a muted return compared to some other similar streaks. An important point to make is that the Dow Industrial Average is only 30 select stocks that are publicly traded and not a reflection of the total economy. Between the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, there are over 5,000 stocks. So, when you think about 30 select ones, you realize that it is a minimal reflection of the economy overall. That said, don’t consider this much more than interesting historical event.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.