Independent Thinking

An earlier than usual episode of the Independent Thinking podcast, ahead of the Easter break. In a one-on-one conversation, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox discusses energy with Sir Dieter Helm, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, who has been advising governments and writing on energy, water and the environment for decades. They examine how energy policies of different governments over decades led to the UK's energy costs being so high. And what the government should do if it wants to guarantee security of supply – and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Are those concerned about climate change right to push for net zero? Are current policies driving industry from the UK? Should there be more nuclear power stations, or more drilling in the North Sea? Read our latest: The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage Moscow internet blackouts: the Kremlin tightens its grip on Russia's digital space Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Spring issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

One month on from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, governments worldwide are trying to assess the scale of its long-term impact on the global economy and political system. Much will depend on how long the conflict continues, and how long Iran blocks fuel exports and other cargo vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The White House and Iran have sent conflicting signals about whether negotiations are under way, even as thousands of US troops head to the Middle East. And even if President Trump secures a ceasefire with Iran, it is unclear if US and Israel are aligned on their visions for an end game. Our panel assesses whether the world is headed for a 1973-style shock to the global economic system, pushing up inflation and cutting growth. And how Europe, Russia, China, and other nations will deal with a crisis that has disrupted energy flows and supply chains. Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are David Lubin, senior research fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, and Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programmes. Read our latest: Starmer's handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia's strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Spring issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

The US-Israel war on Iran is straining Trump's alliances, at home and abroad. Three weeks into exactly the kind of war of choice that he spent years decrying, US President Donald Trump is not getting the amount of international support that he seeks for his campaign of air strikes on Iran. There is also reluctance among NATO and other allies to be drawn into the political and economic turmoil caused by the US-Israeli campaign, and Tehran's region-wide retaliation. Our experts discuss the state of US-Gulf relations, the muted European response to Trump's appeals for help in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, and what it could mean elsewhere in the world for ongoing crises in Ukraine, Cuba and Venezuela. Joining host Bronwen Maddox this week are Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in our Middle East and North Africa Programme; Dr Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America; and Heather Hurlburt, a consulting fellow in our US and North America Programme. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: The World Today magazine | Spring issue out now Expert comment | Should the Gulf Arab states join the war against Iran? Expert comment | The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea

The US military's AI provider Anthropic is feuding with the Pentagon after the company tried to impose 'red lines' over the use of its artificial intelligence products for lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance of Americans. President Trump accused the US firm of being 'radical left' and designated it a 'supply chain risk' – usually reserved for Chinese or Russian firms who could compromise US security. Our panel discusses the dispute, the battle to control artificial intelligence systems already being used in Iran, Venezuela and Ukraine, and how a public battle between tech and government throws a much-needed spotlight on the wider global issues of AI governance and who is – or isn't – writing rules for the new era of warfare. They also look at how China is pushing ahead quickly with its plan to integrate 'AI Plus' into all aspects of its economy and military. This week's guest host of the Independent Thinking podcast is Alex Krasodomski, director of Chatham House's Digital Society Programme. He is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme; and James Kynge, a senior research fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme who has spent years studying China and its high-technology industrial sector. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Anthropic's feud with the Pentagon reveals the limits of AI governance The World Today magazine article | Can the West recover from China's hi-tech knockout blow? Comment | Do AI summits work?

What does President Trump hope to achieve in Iran – a quick show of force, or long-term regime change? The US and Israel's long-threatened air strikes on Iran have materialized, and the Middle East is facing widespread disruption and a mounting death toll as the war spills across borders. In this episode of Chatham House's international affairs podcast, our expert panel analyses the Trump administration's many stated motivations for the attack, whether there can be a clear-cut end game, and who is likely to take over in Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They also discuss the effect of the war on President Trump's popularity at home as mid-term elections loom, and the criticism levelled at UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for doing, his detractors say, too little, too late. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme; General Sir Richard Barrons, senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme; and Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump, the polls, and the war with Iran: What happened to the 'President of Peace'? Comment | Sánchez's principled stand against Trump matters. So does Merz's silence Comment | Netanyahu's biggest gamble

The US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump on his first justification for tariffs, but he says he will push them through by other means. On this week's Independent Thinking podcast, our experts analyse why Trump is wedded to tariffs as an economic and political tool, and what effect they will have on the US and global economies. They also discuss whether tariffs have ended globalization for good even after the Trump era ends. Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance programme at Chatham House, and down the line from Washington, Heather Hurlburt, a consulting fellow in our US and North America Programme. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump's tariff strategy is alive and well by Jennifer Lind Video | Roberta Metsola – A new Westphalia to avoid western failure Video | Al Carns – Acting on the SDR: Britain's defence in 2026 at Chatham House's Security and Defence conference

Negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war do not appear to have made significant progress. In the meantime, the focus of US President Donald Trump's 'lighthouse diplomacy' appears to have switched to Iran. Chatham House analysts discuss the state of the talks, and whether Europe will step up to provide the weapons and military support that Ukraine needs. They also examine how the Russia-Ukraine conflict fits into the wider superpower competition between the US, Russia and China. Joining host Bronwen Maddox are Grégoire Roos, director of Chatham House's Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes; Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum; and Natalie Sabanadze, Senior Research Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme. This episode comes as we look ahead to two major upcoming Chatham House events: a conversation with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, marking four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, and our annual Security and Defence conference. Both events are now fully booked for in-person attendance, but audiences will be able to watch General Zaluzhnyi's appearance and some of the defence conference events online. Full details are available on our website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/upcoming Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

In a special edition of Chatham House's Independent Thinking podcast recorded at the Munich Security Conference 2026 over the weekend, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes, unpack the key issues that emerged from this year's forum. The main speaker, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, adopted a different tone from Vice President JD Vance, who shocked many in the audience last year when he delivered a verbal broadside against Europe at the same conference. But does it signify a shift in the Trump administration's newly assertive stance, or was it the same message in a different wrapping? In a recording session in a side room amid the hustle and flow of the conference, they also discuss innovations in defence technology and drone development, the resilience of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, what level of support Ukraine can expect from Europe, and whether European companies and policymakers will respond effectively in the face of increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts. Read our latest: Comment | The West vs the West at the Munich Security Conference Comment | Climate security should be a bigger priority at the Munich Security Conference Comment | What should a more European NATO look like? The US and Europe disagree Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧

As Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer ploughs through crisis after crisis, his Labour Party faces multiple threats in upcoming local elections. Our Chatham House analysts examine whether having six prime ministers in a decade is a sign that Britain, like some of its neighbours, has more fundamental underlying problems that make it increasingly hard to govern. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Olivia O'Sullivan, Director of the UK in the World Programme at Chatham House and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts Read our latest: Comment | The AU summit is an opportunity for decisive action to end the war in Sudan Comment | Why a resurgent Japan is good for Asia Comment | What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧

After the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, our analysts discuss where in the Western Hemisphere US President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may turn their attention to next. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme, and Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They dissect the so-called 'Donroe Doctrine', Marco Rubio's project to reform Cuba's regime, Haiti, and why oil is central to the MAGA playbook. Read Dr Sabatini's full research paper 'A roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti'. Read our latest: Comment | Haiti's vicious circle: Funding is needed to end the violence. But the violence means funding doesn't come. Event | The new threat? An imperial America News release | Chatham House fellow gives evidence on Venezuela to UK Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Ben Bland, head of our Asia-Pacific Programme, and Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China. They discuss the opportunities and risks of closer engagement between the UK and China, and why the opacity of Chinese elite politics makes them an unpredictable security actor. Read our latest: EU leaders echo de Gaulle, saying Europe must depend on no-one. But where should autonomy begin? UK ratification of the Chagos Archipelago treaty will not violate international law The US and Russia's nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here's what's at stake Myanmar 'election' shows the military regime is here to stay. How should the world respond? Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Read the Winter issue of The World Today. Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox joins the Independent Thinking podcast from the World Economic Forum in Davos. In London are guest host David Lubin, a Senior Research Fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme; and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes. They examine the implications of President Trump's speech for Greenland, NATO, Europe, China and others after Trump pulled back from using force in Greenland, but left allies with a loss of trust in US intentions. Our analysts also discuss the impact of the address by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former President of Chatham House, who laid out his alternative vision for middle powers to cooperate when faced with what he called 'a rupture' in the world order. Read our latest: Trump's Davos speech backed off escalation in Greenland. That will not prevent an EU rush for strategic autonomy Trump, Diego Garcia and the 'Donroe Doctrine' in the Indian Ocean Trump's Greenland tariffs show the UK must prepare for a new era of economic coercion A roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined in the studio by Laurel Rapp, Director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, Director of the International Law Programme and down the line by Juno Berthelsen, of Greenland's opposition Naleraq party, which favours independence. Read our latest: Who owns Greenland? As Carney visits China to diversify Canada's trade, the 'Donroe Doctrine' further strains US relations US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Marc Weller, Director of Chatham House's International Law Programme; Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme; and Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They discuss the failure of regional diplomacy that preceded the 3 January 2026 attack by the US on Venezuela, the tentative response of the international community in its aftermath, the domestic impact on American politics, historic precedents like the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and how it is likely to influence Russia and China's actions in their regions. Read our latest: The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro – and attacks on Venezuela – have no justification in international law President Trump's ambition to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall Trump's Venezuela attack should serve as a warning even to US allies US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

In the last Independent Thinking podcast of 2025, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow with Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme; Marion Messmer, Director of the International Security Programme; and Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China in Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme. For further analysis read 'The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine' by David Lubin, examining how President Trump's actions seem to indicate the emergence of a hemispheric US foreign policy. Read our latest: Global security continued to unravel in 2025. Crucial tests are coming in 2026 The 'Trump Corollary' in the US security strategy brings a new focus on Latin America – but it is a disordered plan Russia is weakened, but its influence in the Middle East should not be underestimated Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.