Horns of a Dilemma

TNSR Managing Editor Rick Landgraf talks with Charles Ziegler about his latest article, Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Charles and Rick discuss how the Central Asian countries have reacted to the withdrawal, how Russia has tried to reassert itself in the region, and why China might eventually supplant Russia as the regional hegemon.

Robert D. Kaplan spoke at the University of Texas at Austin, where he discussed how our leaders can come to grips with a world seemingly in disarray.

TNSR Production Editor Kerry Anderson talks with historian Daniel Chardell about his article The Origins of the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait Reconsidered, published in Volume 6, Issue 3 of TNSR. Daniel and Kerry discuss Saddam Hussein's understanding of the shifts in power that followed the Soviet Union's collapse, how U.S. and Iraqi leaders perceived each other, Saddam's concerns about Israel, and historians' use of Iraqi archives.

Marshall Kosloff talks with journalist Martin Pengelly about his book, "Brotherhood: When West Point Rugby Went to War." They discuss rugby and Pengelly's story about members of a West Point rugby team in the aftermath of 9/11.

In this episode, TNSR Production Editor Kerry Anderson sits down with Joseph Stieb to discuss his article from Volume 6, Issue 3 of TNSR: "Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? The Debate at 20 Years."

Jim Goldgeier and Marshall Kosloff discuss the post-Cold War era, NATO expansion, great-power expectations, and the future of the U.S. role in Europe.

China's defense spending is difficult to quantify because many assessments make methodological errors that result in inflated figures. Taylor Fravel, George Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham explain these flaws and offer a novel method for a more accurate assessment. Their article was published in the summer 2024 issue of TNSR.

At the Clements Center for National Security's Summer Seminar in History and Statecraft, Susan Colbourn and Simon Miles discussed how different concepts of history have shaped the war in Ukraine and how students of international affairs should challenge their assumptions and embrace uncertainty.

In this episode, TNSR publisher Ryan Evans spoke with the journal's new editor-in-chief, Prof. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, an award-winning scholar and associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin's LBJ School of Public Affairs. They spoke about why she became a scholar, her research, the intellectual challenges of the competition with China, and her vision for taking TNSR to the next level.

Ryan Evans talks with Philip Zelikow about his recent article for TNSR, "Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking." Their wide-ranging and insightful conversation covers everything from Zelikow's career as a high-level foreign policy practitioner and as an historian, his experience directing the 9/11 Commission, his argument that we are in an exceptionally volatile time in global politics, and more.

Rick talks with TNSR author Joshua Byun about how American attempts to leave Europe during the first decade of the Cold War were thwarted by European concerns that German rearmament would trigger a Soviet attack.

Rick sits down with Richard Maass, the author of "Salami Tactics: Faits Accomplis and International Expansion in the Shadow of Major War," to discuss how powerful countries can use repetitive, limited acts of aggression to expand influence while avoiding potential escalation.

Frank Gavin, chair of TNSR's editorial board, talks with Joseph Nye about his new memoir, "A Life in the American Century." This fascinating conversation covers a range of issues, including lessons from Nye's extensive experience as an influential analyst, policymaker, and scholar.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Luke Schumacher about his recent article in TNSR, "Franklin D. Roosevelt, World War II, and the Reality of Constitutional Statesmanship."

Marshall Kosloff talks with Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine about their new book, "Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power."

Ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington in July, Rick sits down with Katherine Elgin and Alexander Lanoszka to discuss what alliance membership means for Sweden and Finland.

Gavin Wilde joined TNSR managing editor Rick Landgraf to discuss Gavin's recent article about the effects of foreign propaganda on U.S. domestic politics. They discuss how the fear that hostile foreign powers could subvert democracy by spreading misinformation may be exaggerated, as the relationship between people's beliefs and attitudes and their media consumption remains unclear. Policy interventions should therefore avoid needlessly intervening, lest they inadvertently imitate the authoritarian states they seek to combat.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Editorial Board Chair Frank Gavin about his essay in TNSR, "Cracks in the Ivory Tower?" They discuss why universities need to consider the purpose of higher education and the ongoing importance of the humanities, including when studying international security issues.

The Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Xiaobing Li, professor of history and the Don Betz endowed chair in international studies at the University of Central Oklahoma, for a book talk on China's New Navy: The Evolution of PLAN from the People's Revolution to a 21st Century Cold War.

The Clements Center for National Security, the Center for European Studies and the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies hosted Michael Kimmage, Professor of History at Catholic University, for a book talk on his upcoming release Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability.

The Clements Center for National Security, the LBJ Presidential Library and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Talmage Boston, historian and partner at the Dallas law firm Shackelford, Bowen, McKinley & Norton, LLP, for a book talk on How the Best Did It: Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents.

On Wednesday, April 10, the Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King's College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Pardo discussed his book, South Korea's Grand Strategy: Making Its Own Destiny.

On Tuesday, March 26, the Clements Center for National Security, the Army ROTC and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Kelly Eads and Dan Morgan for a book talk on their recent release: Black Hearts and Painted Guns: A Battalion's Journey into Iraq's Triangle of Death.

Marshall Kosloff, the Clements Center National Security media and journalism fellow, moderated a discussion with Jeff Decker, the managing director of Tech Transfer for Defense at Stanford University's Doerr School of Sustainability, and Noah Sheinbaum, the founder of Frontdoor Defense, about their recent article, "Shining a Light on the Defense Department's Industrial Base Problems."

Philip Taubman, a lecturer at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, discussed his latest book, In the Nation's Service: The Life and Times of George P. Shultz. The conversation touched on the legacy of Secretary Shultz, his approach to the Soviet Union, and is filled with anecdotes from Philip's time in Moscow at the end of the Cold War.

Dr. Meg Reiss, the founder and CEO of of SolidIntel Inc., sat down with Marshal Kosloff, the national security media and journalism fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, to discuss supply chain risks and how the risks could be mitigated with investments in new technology. The conversation explored the upstream challenges, how to manage China's role in supply chains, and how to minimize risk factors for industry.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, spoke about the history of isolationism in the United States, its role in the formulation of American foreign policy, and how the idea is now resurgent in U.S. domestic politics. The conversation is based on Charlie's most recent book, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Aaron O'Connell, associate professor of history at the University of Texas at Austin and director of research for the Clements Center for National Security, hosts a discussion with Rob Rakove, a lecturer in Stanford University's Program in International Relations. They discuss Rakove's new book, Days of Opportunity: The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion.

Paul Edgar, the associate director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Amb. Kurt Volker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009, and Gen. Tod Wolters, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, about the state of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the future of European security, and the impact of the conflict on global security. The conversation explored the evolution of President Putin's approach to relations with the West, the changes in Russian foreign policy, and what this may portend for regional security in the future.

Marc Selverstone, the director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, co-chair of the Center's Presidential Recordings Program, and professor of presidential studies, moderated a discussion with Francis Gavin, the Giovanni Agnelli distinguised professor and director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; Sheyda Jahanbani, an associate professor at the University of Kansas; and Fredrik Logevall, the Laurence D. Belfer professor of international affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and a professor of history at Harvard University. The conversation focused on President Lyndon Johnson's foreign policy and the recent book, LBJ's America: The Life and Legacies of Lyndon Baines Johnson.

Aynne Kokas, the C.K. Yen Professor at the Miller Center and an associate professor of media studies at the University of Virginia, spoke about her book Trafficking Data: How China is Winning the Battle for Digital Sovereignty. Kokas explained how the asymmetry in digital regulations between the United States and China, along with practices of private industry, have helped empower Beijing's broader effort to control digital data.

Carter Burwell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Erin Mahan, Chief Historian at the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Adam Howard, the director of the Office of the Historian at the U.S. Department of State; and John Fox, a historian at the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The conversation discussed the role of historians and archivists inside the U.S. government, the role that historians play in preserving institutional knowledge, and how that role intersects with classification/declassification issues.

Ben Powell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Adam Goldman, a reporter at the New York Times; Nomaan Merchant, a reporter at the Associated Press; Dustin Volz, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal; and Josh Gerstein, a journalist with Politico. The conversation talked about the role of the media in holding government accountable, the use of the Freedom of Information Act, and how the classification issue impacts the media business and the job of reporting.

Dr. Will Inboden sat down with Sen. John Cornyn to discuss the issues of declassification and transparency, along with the ongoing debate about the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The two also discussed the role of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Congressional oversight, and how Section 702's renewal is important for U.S. national security

Paul Noel Chretien, a Public Interest Declassification Board Board Member and retired Central Intelligence Agency Officer, moderated a discussion with Tim Naftali, a clinical associate professor of History and Public Policy at New York University; Matthew Connelly, a professor of History at Columbia University; Warren Finch, the former director of the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library; and Mark Lawrence, the director of the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library. The conversation explored the role of presidential libraries, the issues they face, and the future of these institutions.

Adam Klein moderated a panel with Jared Abrams, a research associate at Applied Research Laboratories; Ivan Lee, the founder & CEO of Datasaur.ai; Alex Joel, a senior project director and adjunct professor at Washington College of Law, American University; and Ezra Cohen, the former chair of Public Interest Declassification Board and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security. The conversation touched on the role of technology in helping to manage classified material and the declassification process, along with how technology has increased the amount of classified material. The panel also discussed how AI could help scholars with research. This conversation was part of a multi-panel event on classification and U.S. democracy.

Aaron O'Connell, the director of research at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a panel with Jim Goldgeier, a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation; Deborah Pearlstein, co-director of the Floersheimer Center for Constitutional Democracy; Jeremi Suri, the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at UT Austin; and Sheena Greitens, the founding director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. The conversation focused on the classification process, scholarship, the need for more transparency, and why it matters for the writing of history. This was the first of a three panels exploring the topic of classification and democracy.

Christy Abizaid, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, spoke about the duties of the center, terrorist threats to the United States and the role of counter-terrorism during an era of strategic competition. She also participated in a moderated question and answer session with Mark Pomar, discussing U.S. foreign policy, the counter-terrorism mission, and what it is like to work with in the intelligence community.

Dr. Mark Pomar, a senior national security fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Alexander Podrabinek, a Soviet and Russian human rights activist, journalist, and writer. The conversation explored the drivers of the return of totalitarian rule in Russia. The two also discussed the role of propaganda in shaping domestic opinion and the ongoing Russian resistance to authoritarianism.

Sean Mirski, a lawyer and U.S. foreign policy scholar, discussed his recent book, We May Dominate the World, which explores the rise of American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Mirski discusses how the United States pushed European powers out of the hemisphere while simultaneously expanding its power abroad. The conversation then pivoted to the anxiety great powers often feel about losing power and what that may mean for other reiognal powers and their foreign policy.

Dr. Michael G. Vickers, former under secretary of defense for intelligence, joined Dr. Stephen Slick for a moderated discussion on his latest book, By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy. The conversation discussed the reasons for writing the book and the reasons why senior leaders should share as much as they can about intelligence. The two also discussed the U.S. response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the war against al-Qaeda, and U.S. operations in Iraq.

On this episode of Horns of Dilemma, Sheena Greitens moderated a panel discussion about the Russo-Ukrainian war and broader challenges to European security. The conversation featured Gen. Vince Brooks, U.S. Army ( Ret.), former Commander, United Nations Command/Combined Forces Command/United States Forces Korea; Susan Colbourn, associate director of the Program in American Grand Strategy, Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University; Simon Miles, assistant professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University; and Mark Pomar, Senior National Security Fellow, Clements Center for National Security. The group discussed the challenges the Ukrainian military faces, the risks of nuclear escalation, and the longer-term implications of the war for regional and global security.

Amb. Clint Williamson, Lead Coordinator of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA) for Ukraine, spoke about the Russian military's war crimes in Ukraine and the efforts to investigate and prosecute Russian war criminals. The conversation began with an overview of the war and then shifted to the way in which investigators can collect evidence for international prosecution.

David A. Merkel, managing director of Summit International Advisors, LLC, spoke about the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War, the two sides' conflicting interests, and what that means for great power competition. The conversation also explored U.S. policy options in Central Asia and options for further engagement in the region.

Dr. Paul Edgar, the executive director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security at the University of Texas-Austin, sat down with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson to discuss energy and national security. The conversation focused on energy security, its relevance for U.S. national security, and how a more effective energy policy would allow for a more robust response to global crises.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sat down for a conversation on the state of foreign affairs with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The conversation touched on America's role in the world, the war in Ukraine, and the on-going challenges posed by illegal migration and the fentanyl trade. The two also discussed President Biden's belief that the world is now at an inflection point that requires continued American diplomatic leadership.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Stephen Slick, Dr. Paul Edgar, and Ms. Simone Ledeen spoke about Hamas' terrorist attack on Oct. 7th in Israel. The conversation began with a discussion about terrorism, human cruelty and Hamas' wanton killing of civilians in the attack. The three panelists then discussed different facets of the expected Israeli response, ranging from the role of the intelligence services to the operational planning for a ground operation. The conversation also explored the potential role of Iran and whether or not the localized conflict could expand and engulf the entire region in conflict. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Isaac B. Kardon discussed his book China's Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order. Kardon discussed his research into how the Chinese Communist Party thinks about maritime sovereignty, how it applies this thinking to individual disputes in its surrounding seas, and what that means for the United States and its allies. The discussion focused on how the Chinese Communist Party views international law, the role of The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and maritime dispute resolution. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Melvyn Leffler talks about his book, Confronting Saddam Hussein: George W. Bush and the Invasion of Iraq. Leffler discusses why he decided to write a book about the invasion of Iraq and how he went about doing so. He then outlined what he learned about this period of American history and how President Bush helped to shape U.S. policy, as Washington debated whether or not to invade. He then discussed the role of fear and anxiety and how these two emotions contributed to U.S. government thinking about threats, vulnerability, and how best to manage U.S. security concerns. Finally, he touched on how his own views of the war changed while writing the book and some of the larger take-aways from this period, including the need to always challenge one's own assumptions. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Jonathan Hunt talks about his book, The Nuclear Club: How America and the World Policed the Atom from Hiroshima to Vietnam. Hunt starts out with an anecdote about the origins of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty under U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson and his Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Walt Whitman Rostow. He then outlines the core argument of his book: that parallel to the nuclear revolution was a "counter-revolution" to prevent the universalization of nuclear weapons, therefore maintaining the dominance of the "nuclear club" of nuclear-armed states. He then discusses the sequence of events that led to the implementation of nuclear laws, including the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Finally, he touches on the lessons of this narrative and how the politics of nuclear diplomacy during the Cold War led to the rise of a "paternal" U.S. presidency. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.