Horns of a Dilemma

Frank Gavin, chair of TNSR's editorial board, talks with Joseph Nye about his new memoir, "A Life in the American Century." This fascinating conversation covers a range of issues, including lessons from Nye's extensive experience as an influential analyst, policymaker, and scholar.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Luke Schumacher about his recent article in TNSR, "Franklin D. Roosevelt, World War II, and the Reality of Constitutional Statesmanship."

Marshall Kosloff talks with Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine about their new book, "Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power."

Ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington in July, Rick sits down with Katherine Elgin and Alexander Lanoszka to discuss what alliance membership means for Sweden and Finland.

Gavin Wilde joined TNSR managing editor Rick Landgraf to discuss Gavin's recent article about the effects of foreign propaganda on U.S. domestic politics. They discuss how the fear that hostile foreign powers could subvert democracy by spreading misinformation may be exaggerated, as the relationship between people's beliefs and attitudes and their media consumption remains unclear. Policy interventions should therefore avoid needlessly intervening, lest they inadvertently imitate the authoritarian states they seek to combat.

Marshall Kosloff talks with Editorial Board Chair Frank Gavin about his essay in TNSR, "Cracks in the Ivory Tower?" They discuss why universities need to consider the purpose of higher education and the ongoing importance of the humanities, including when studying international security issues.

The Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Xiaobing Li, professor of history and the Don Betz endowed chair in international studies at the University of Central Oklahoma, for a book talk on China's New Navy: The Evolution of PLAN from the People's Revolution to a 21st Century Cold War.

The Clements Center for National Security, the Center for European Studies and the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies hosted Michael Kimmage, Professor of History at Catholic University, for a book talk on his upcoming release Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability.

The Clements Center for National Security, the LBJ Presidential Library and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Talmage Boston, historian and partner at the Dallas law firm Shackelford, Bowen, McKinley & Norton, LLP, for a book talk on How the Best Did It: Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents.

On Wednesday, April 10, the Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King's College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance of Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Pardo discussed his book, South Korea's Grand Strategy: Making Its Own Destiny.

On Tuesday, March 26, the Clements Center for National Security, the Army ROTC and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Kelly Eads and Dan Morgan for a book talk on their recent release: Black Hearts and Painted Guns: A Battalion's Journey into Iraq's Triangle of Death.

Marshall Kosloff, the Clements Center National Security media and journalism fellow, moderated a discussion with Jeff Decker, the managing director of Tech Transfer for Defense at Stanford University's Doerr School of Sustainability, and Noah Sheinbaum, the founder of Frontdoor Defense, about their recent article, "Shining a Light on the Defense Department's Industrial Base Problems."

Philip Taubman, a lecturer at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, discussed his latest book, In the Nation's Service: The Life and Times of George P. Shultz. The conversation touched on the legacy of Secretary Shultz, his approach to the Soviet Union, and is filled with anecdotes from Philip's time in Moscow at the end of the Cold War.

Dr. Meg Reiss, the founder and CEO of of SolidIntel Inc., sat down with Marshal Kosloff, the national security media and journalism fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, to discuss supply chain risks and how the risks could be mitigated with investments in new technology. The conversation explored the upstream challenges, how to manage China's role in supply chains, and how to minimize risk factors for industry.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, spoke about the history of isolationism in the United States, its role in the formulation of American foreign policy, and how the idea is now resurgent in U.S. domestic politics. The conversation is based on Charlie's most recent book, Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Aaron O'Connell, associate professor of history at the University of Texas at Austin and director of research for the Clements Center for National Security, hosts a discussion with Rob Rakove, a lecturer in Stanford University's Program in International Relations. They discuss Rakove's new book, Days of Opportunity: The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion.

Paul Edgar, the associate director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Amb. Kurt Volker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009, and Gen. Tod Wolters, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, about the state of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the future of European security, and the impact of the conflict on global security. The conversation explored the evolution of President Putin's approach to relations with the West, the changes in Russian foreign policy, and what this may portend for regional security in the future.

Marc Selverstone, the director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, co-chair of the Center's Presidential Recordings Program, and professor of presidential studies, moderated a discussion with Francis Gavin, the Giovanni Agnelli distinguised professor and director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; Sheyda Jahanbani, an associate professor at the University of Kansas; and Fredrik Logevall, the Laurence D. Belfer professor of international affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and a professor of history at Harvard University. The conversation focused on President Lyndon Johnson's foreign policy and the recent book, LBJ's America: The Life and Legacies of Lyndon Baines Johnson.

Aynne Kokas, the C.K. Yen Professor at the Miller Center and an associate professor of media studies at the University of Virginia, spoke about her book Trafficking Data: How China is Winning the Battle for Digital Sovereignty. Kokas explained how the asymmetry in digital regulations between the United States and China, along with practices of private industry, have helped empower Beijing's broader effort to control digital data.

Carter Burwell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Erin Mahan, Chief Historian at the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Adam Howard, the director of the Office of the Historian at the U.S. Department of State; and John Fox, a historian at the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The conversation discussed the role of historians and archivists inside the U.S. government, the role that historians play in preserving institutional knowledge, and how that role intersects with classification/declassification issues.

Ben Powell, a Public Interest Declassification Board board member, moderated a discussion with Adam Goldman, a reporter at the New York Times; Nomaan Merchant, a reporter at the Associated Press; Dustin Volz, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal; and Josh Gerstein, a journalist with Politico. The conversation talked about the role of the media in holding government accountable, the use of the Freedom of Information Act, and how the classification issue impacts the media business and the job of reporting.

Dr. Will Inboden sat down with Sen. John Cornyn to discuss the issues of declassification and transparency, along with the ongoing debate about the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The two also discussed the role of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Congressional oversight, and how Section 702's renewal is important for U.S. national security

Paul Noel Chretien, a Public Interest Declassification Board Board Member and retired Central Intelligence Agency Officer, moderated a discussion with Tim Naftali, a clinical associate professor of History and Public Policy at New York University; Matthew Connelly, a professor of History at Columbia University; Warren Finch, the former director of the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library; and Mark Lawrence, the director of the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library. The conversation explored the role of presidential libraries, the issues they face, and the future of these institutions.

Adam Klein moderated a panel with Jared Abrams, a research associate at Applied Research Laboratories; Ivan Lee, the founder & CEO of Datasaur.ai; Alex Joel, a senior project director and adjunct professor at Washington College of Law, American University; and Ezra Cohen, the former chair of Public Interest Declassification Board and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security. The conversation touched on the role of technology in helping to manage classified material and the declassification process, along with how technology has increased the amount of classified material. The panel also discussed how AI could help scholars with research. This conversation was part of a multi-panel event on classification and U.S. democracy.

Aaron O'Connell, the director of research at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a panel with Jim Goldgeier, a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation; Deborah Pearlstein, co-director of the Floersheimer Center for Constitutional Democracy; Jeremi Suri, the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at UT Austin; and Sheena Greitens, the founding director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. The conversation focused on the classification process, scholarship, the need for more transparency, and why it matters for the writing of history. This was the first of a three panels exploring the topic of classification and democracy.

Christy Abizaid, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, spoke about the duties of the center, terrorist threats to the United States and the role of counter-terrorism during an era of strategic competition. She also participated in a moderated question and answer session with Mark Pomar, discussing U.S. foreign policy, the counter-terrorism mission, and what it is like to work with in the intelligence community.

Dr. Mark Pomar, a senior national security fellow at the Clements Center for National Security, moderated a discussion with Alexander Podrabinek, a Soviet and Russian human rights activist, journalist, and writer. The conversation explored the drivers of the return of totalitarian rule in Russia. The two also discussed the role of propaganda in shaping domestic opinion and the ongoing Russian resistance to authoritarianism.

Sean Mirski, a lawyer and U.S. foreign policy scholar, discussed his recent book, We May Dominate the World, which explores the rise of American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Mirski discusses how the United States pushed European powers out of the hemisphere while simultaneously expanding its power abroad. The conversation then pivoted to the anxiety great powers often feel about losing power and what that may mean for other reiognal powers and their foreign policy.

Dr. Michael G. Vickers, former under secretary of defense for intelligence, joined Dr. Stephen Slick for a moderated discussion on his latest book, By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy. The conversation discussed the reasons for writing the book and the reasons why senior leaders should share as much as they can about intelligence. The two also discussed the U.S. response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the war against al-Qaeda, and U.S. operations in Iraq.

On this episode of Horns of Dilemma, Sheena Greitens moderated a panel discussion about the Russo-Ukrainian war and broader challenges to European security. The conversation featured Gen. Vince Brooks, U.S. Army ( Ret.), former Commander, United Nations Command/Combined Forces Command/United States Forces Korea; Susan Colbourn, associate director of the Program in American Grand Strategy, Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University; Simon Miles, assistant professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University; and Mark Pomar, Senior National Security Fellow, Clements Center for National Security. The group discussed the challenges the Ukrainian military faces, the risks of nuclear escalation, and the longer-term implications of the war for regional and global security.

Amb. Clint Williamson, Lead Coordinator of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA) for Ukraine, spoke about the Russian military's war crimes in Ukraine and the efforts to investigate and prosecute Russian war criminals. The conversation began with an overview of the war and then shifted to the way in which investigators can collect evidence for international prosecution.

David A. Merkel, managing director of Summit International Advisors, LLC, spoke about the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War, the two sides' conflicting interests, and what that means for great power competition. The conversation also explored U.S. policy options in Central Asia and options for further engagement in the region.

Dr. Paul Edgar, the executive director of the William P. Clements, Jr. Center for National Security at the University of Texas-Austin, sat down with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson to discuss energy and national security. The conversation focused on energy security, its relevance for U.S. national security, and how a more effective energy policy would allow for a more robust response to global crises.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sat down for a conversation on the state of foreign affairs with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The conversation touched on America's role in the world, the war in Ukraine, and the on-going challenges posed by illegal migration and the fentanyl trade. The two also discussed President Biden's belief that the world is now at an inflection point that requires continued American diplomatic leadership.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Stephen Slick, Dr. Paul Edgar, and Ms. Simone Ledeen spoke about Hamas' terrorist attack on Oct. 7th in Israel. The conversation began with a discussion about terrorism, human cruelty and Hamas' wanton killing of civilians in the attack. The three panelists then discussed different facets of the expected Israeli response, ranging from the role of the intelligence services to the operational planning for a ground operation. The conversation also explored the potential role of Iran and whether or not the localized conflict could expand and engulf the entire region in conflict. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Isaac B. Kardon discussed his book China's Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order. Kardon discussed his research into how the Chinese Communist Party thinks about maritime sovereignty, how it applies this thinking to individual disputes in its surrounding seas, and what that means for the United States and its allies. The discussion focused on how the Chinese Communist Party views international law, the role of The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and maritime dispute resolution. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Melvyn Leffler talks about his book, Confronting Saddam Hussein: George W. Bush and the Invasion of Iraq. Leffler discusses why he decided to write a book about the invasion of Iraq and how he went about doing so. He then outlined what he learned about this period of American history and how President Bush helped to shape U.S. policy, as Washington debated whether or not to invade. He then discussed the role of fear and anxiety and how these two emotions contributed to U.S. government thinking about threats, vulnerability, and how best to manage U.S. security concerns. Finally, he touched on how his own views of the war changed while writing the book and some of the larger take-aways from this period, including the need to always challenge one's own assumptions. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Jonathan Hunt talks about his book, The Nuclear Club: How America and the World Policed the Atom from Hiroshima to Vietnam. Hunt starts out with an anecdote about the origins of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty under U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson and his Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Walt Whitman Rostow. He then outlines the core argument of his book: that parallel to the nuclear revolution was a "counter-revolution" to prevent the universalization of nuclear weapons, therefore maintaining the dominance of the "nuclear club" of nuclear-armed states. He then discusses the sequence of events that led to the implementation of nuclear laws, including the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Finally, he touches on the lessons of this narrative and how the politics of nuclear diplomacy during the Cold War led to the rise of a "paternal" U.S. presidency. This was recorded at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration Beth Sanner delivers a candid and enriching lecture about being an intelligence professional at the highest level in the White House. Among many duties, this job involved serving as U.S. President Donald Trump's intelligence briefer. Ms. Sanner starts off her talk by describing the history of the president's daily intelligence briefing, then dives into how the briefings are crafted. She discusses what it means to be an intelligence officer and the importance of these briefs to the entire national security community. Then, she describes the day-to-day of delivering intelligence to President Trump, what worked best, and the lessons she learned in the process. This episode is a must-listen for anyone considering a career in the intelligence and national security community.

On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, William Inboden, editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review and executive director of the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin, sat down with Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison, former United States senator from Texas and, later, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO. The two had a thoughtful and wide-ranging conversation about European security and global energy policy. First, the two discussed Inboden's new book, The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan in the White House and the World, and how President Dwight D. Eisenhower helped shape President Reagan's foreign policy strategy. Then, they talked about Amb. Hutchison's tenure at NATO and how the war in Ukraine has affected the alliance. In particular, she touched on the need for U.S. leadership to drive solidarity within the alliance and the importance of continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Finally, the two discussed European views of China and the latest work done by the Kay Bailey Hutchison Energy Center at the University of Texas at Austin. This episode was recorded in Austin, Texas.

In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Maj. Ben Griffin, the Chief of the Military History Division at West Point, discusses his new book, Reagan's War Stories: A Cold War Presidency. In the book, Ben tells three stories about United States President Ronald Reagan, the President who ushered in the end of the Cold War. The book touches on Reagan's relationship with many writers and figures from pop culture, including writer Tom Clancy. In part of this episode, Griffin discusses the relationship between the two and how President Reagan saw Clancy's book, Red Storm Rising, as a credible war game that influenced his negotiations with Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev over nuclear weapons. Griffin also touches on how Clancy's books, including The Hunt for Red October, shaped his own life.

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Ann Ganzer of the State Department's Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation recently visited the University of Texas, Austin. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Ganzer sits down with Clements Center Associate Director Paul Edgar to discuss many of the issues she discussed with students. The issues under her purview are the things that keep policy makers up at night--the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, security questions related to the civilian use of nuclear power, and the security challenges posed by new technologies such as advanced unmanned aerial vehicles or semiconductors, especially as they could be used to precisely deliver deadly weapons. The discussion ranges from the type of people the State Department needs to recruit, to Russian disinformation campaigns, to concerns over threats to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant during Russia's war in Ukraine. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Marine Corps Gen. (Ret) Robert Neller joins University of Texas, Austin Professor Paul Pope to discuss the recent force structure and doctrine changes in the Marine Corps, intended to create a force ready to fight a war with China. Neller begins with a basic overview of the contemporary security environment, and traces the requirements that emerge all the way through hard choices about the composition, training, and mission of the Marine Corps. This is a rare, insightful look into the process of adapting a military service for changing requirements from someone who once led that service. While it is illuminating for understanding the current debate surrounding Marine Corps expeditionary advanced base operations, the principles and choices Neller lays out provide insight into the challenges of strategic defense planning for the entire U.S. military. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was co-hosted by the University's Alexander Hamilton Society.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, addresses the challenging questions of how to allocate defense spending to meet American strategic interests around the globe. Eaglen discusses the relationship between strategy and budget, as well as how "reality always gets a vote" and often results in a need to spend money in areas that were not projected to be strategic priorities. Eaglen engages in a broad-ranging question and answer session with members of the audience which provides a comprehensive overview of the relationship between strategy, politics, defense spending, and capabilities on the ground for the United States and its allies. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Napoleon once said that leaders are "dealers in hope." While such a label might seem to fit Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky, it fits more awkwardly on Russian President Vladimir Putin. How has the leadership of these two men shaped the onset and current progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Would the invasion have happened at all, or if had happened would it have progressed differently under different leadership? These are the fundamental questions addressed in this week's Horns of a Dilemma. Texas National Security Review Executive Editor Doyle Hodges is joined by Brown University Professor (and member of the TNSR Editorial Board) Rose McDermott to discuss political psychology, leadership, and the war in Ukraine. This discussion ranges from the origins, strengths, and limits of political psychology to analysis of the leaders involved in the conflict to literary criticism of two great Russian novels. Professor McDermott is also a contributor to a new book from Cornell University Press, The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Daniel Runde of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaks about his new book, The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power. Liberals and conservatives are frequently divided over foreign policy preferences, with conservatives favoring hard power, such as military might, and liberals emphasizing soft power elements, such as leadership in international organizations. Runde approaches foreign policy from a conservative perspective but concludes that competition between the United States and rivals like Russia or China is more likely to play out in the arena of soft power than in hard power confrontations. Runde therefore argues that without leadership in soft power, the United States is likely to find itself on the losing side in great power competition. This is a novel and compelling argument about the importance of American leadership. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

The turnover between U.S. presidential administrations can be a time of uncertainty and vulnerability. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from former National Security Advisor Stephen J. Hadley, who discusses the forthcoming volume, Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama. This book, a collection of transition memoranda prepared by National Security Council staffers, reflections by the principals, and analysis by scholars, is an unprecedented glimpse into the transition process, as well as an early comprehensive history of the George W. Bush administration's foreign policy. Hadley discusses the book and the transition process with Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden, who worked for Hadley at the time on the National Security Council, and who offers his own insights and recollections. This book and this discussion are a remarkable "second draft" of history--benefiting from more access and context than contemporaneous journalism can allow, and leveraging fresh recollections and insights into events whose implications have not yet fully played out. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin on February 14, 2023.

A year ago, as Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine was proving not to be the quick and easy victory Vladimir Putin had expected, some observers speculated that the bungled decision to invade his neighbor could be Putin's undoing. The idea of a Russian state without Putin raised alluring prospects of reform. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, American University Professor Joseph Torigian discusses the dynamics of authoritarian succession. His book, Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China After Stalin and Mao, contradicts conventional scholarship. While the most significant autocratic power transitions of the 20th Century did result in more reform-minded leaders in the Soviet Union and China, Torigian argues that Nikita Kruschev and Deng Xiaoping earned their leadership positions the old-fashioned way: by intrigue, politicking, and making promises to gain the support of the military and security services. Torigian's talk is both a fascinating history, and an important caution in setting expectations for leadership transition in Russia and China, whenever and however it may occur. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. Brands and Inboden discuss a book written by Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China. While many pundits project conflict between the United States and China (most recently, Air Force General Michael Minihan), Brands' prognosis stands out for its thoughtfulness and for its recognition that armed conflict between these two superpowers would be militarily and financially disastrous for the world. By focusing on the factors that seem to aggravate risk over the next several years, Brands provides a compelling description of how the United States might safely navigate this perilous period in U.S.-Sino competition. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

On this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma Clement Center Senior National Security Fellow Mark Pomar, who helped to oversee the Russian language broadcasts of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty during the Cold War, discusses his book, Cold War Radio: The Russian Broadcasts of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Pomar is joined by Professor Kiril Avramov in a great discussion of both how the Russian language broadcasts helped to advance American interests, and how information figures in contemporary conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.