Global Security Briefing

We discuss the future trajectory of the region in the context of the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and new leadership across the continent. The global geopolitical architecture is shifting rapidly in the face of major events such as the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic. Latin America is having to contend with these changes, as well as regional challenges of transnational organised crime, cybersecurity and public health threats. As the region welcomes several new leaders and the political landscape morphs, host Neil Melvin sits down with RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Latin America Carlos Solar to discuss how all these factors are transforming the role of the region on the world stage. What are the most tangible effects of the war in Ukraine on Latin America? What are the effects of Putin's influence in the region? Can the US and UK strengthen their military and diplomatic alliances in the region in the face of political realignments, or is it too late?

Originally published 28 September 2022. As strategic and economic interest in the region grows, how can states around the Indian Ocean and their partners mitigate the risk of conflict? Jeffrey Payne of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington joins Veerle and Aaditya to discuss growing competition in the Indian Ocean region. Why has interest in the region among nuclear maritime states – including India, China and the US – grown steadily over recent years? They consider the strategic risks to the region as a nuclear flashpoint and what steps could be taken to stabilise it.

Originally published 23 September 2022. What lessons can be learned from the war in Ukraine when tackling the cross-strait crisis? In this special episode of Bridging the Oceans, Veerle speaks with Yuichi Hosoya of Keio University, Tokyo about the parallels between the war in Ukraine and the current standoff over Taiwan, and the extent to which these comparisons are valid. They examine escalation scenarios across the Taiwan Strait, in light of Russia's pattern of behaviour before invading Ukraine. And they discuss what role Japan could play in the maintenance of peace and stability in the region, as well as which key networks and strategic alliances Japan will be relying on.

Japan is looking to play a larger role in global security as the country faces new external threats. It is increasing commitments to national defence and seeking to move beyond key political and constitutional constraints placed on the country's security policies after the Second World War. Philip Shetler-Jones, a James Cook Associate Fellow in Indo-Pacific Geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy, is our guest for this episode. He discusses with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI, how Japan is responding to the growing military confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region. Increased defence spending, new roles for the Japanese military, and a revised foreign and security policy that includes remaking Japan's defence alliances are all considered.

Originally published 14 September 2022. Will UK foreign policy under Liz Truss be business as usual or a radical departure? While the UK's relations with China have been strained in recent years, Raffaello Pantucci, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, explains how current policy towards China may experience a radical shift and, should that happen, what the repercussions would be. Similarly, the Hon. Alexander Downer, the former Australian foreign minister, joins Veerle in exploring Liz Truss' views on the Indo-Pacific, how she may need to balance realities in both the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions, and whether a values-driven foreign policy will resonate with Indo-Pacific partners.

A new security space is emerging around the Red Sea. Encompassing the East Mediterranean and the northern Indian Ocean, the region is seeing increasing strategic competition between countries from the Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia and the Horn of Africa, as well as Europe and the US. The shifting security environment in this complex and diverse region is the topic for this episode. Dr Tobias Borck, RUSI Research Fellow for Middle East Security Studies, and Dr Simon Rynn, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for African Security, join Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI. They look at how increasing international competition over energy, transport infrastructure and defences ties is reshaping long-established relationships and foreign and security policies.

Originally published 31 August 2022. Thoughts from Japan on the recent cross-strait tensions and a look at what lies ahead In this episode, Veerle speaks with Li Hao, Research Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), about the Japanese reaction to Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan and China's subsequent live-fire drills in the region. They discuss the direct impacts the military exercises have had on Japan and consider the larger implications these events may have on Japan's economy and security policy in the future. They also look at the possibility of war breaking out in the region and what Japan's role could be in moderating and mitigating harm.

This episode traces the roots of growing tensions between China and the US over Taiwan, and assesses the danger of war between the two superpowers over the island's fate. Veerle Nouwens, RUSI Senior Research Fellow in the security of the Indo-Pacific, and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI, the origins of the dispute between the US and China over Taiwan, the current state of relations, and the prospects of a conflict developing between Washington and Beijing.