Global Security Briefing

As the Middle East is facing grave uncertainty against the backdrop of what is being called the 'Third Gulf War', Ankara is managing an uneasy relationship with Iran. Turkey is projecting itself as a more consequential regional actor across a variety of regional security spaces and is often described as a 'middle power'. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, to analyse Turkey's relationship with Iran and the main limits of Turkey's regional approach to diplomacy. This episode explores: · How Turkey approaches peacebuilding in the Middle East. · What Turkey's regional role is across different theatres in the Caucasus, Somalia and Iran. · The limits of eastern Mediterranean security architecture that excludes Turkey. · What British and European policymakers should learn from Turkey's approach to diplomacy. This podcast episode is part of a policy series for the 'Turkey's Peacebuilding in a Disordered Middle East' project of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) network. The Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin is funded by Stiftung Mercator and the Federal Foreign Office. CATS is the curator of the CATS Network, an international network of think-tanks and research institutions working on Turkey.

The US and Israel have launched major strikes on Iran, triggering retaliation across the region and raising fears of wider war. As tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, the implications extend far beyond the Middle East. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a specialist on Iranian and regional politics and an Associate Fellow with RUSI, to analyse the regional and global significance of the crisis. This episode explores: What the US and Israel are seeking to achieve, and how Iran is responding. Whether the strikes could threaten the survival of Iran's political system established in 1979. The risks of escalation and miscalculation across Iraq, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the Red Sea. The prospects for leadership disruption, succession dynamics, and elite cohesion inside Iran. The potential roles of Russia and China as diplomatic or strategic actors. The UK's response and whether it has adopted the right approach. Key scenarios for how the conflict may evolve in the coming days.

Ukraine, its European backers and the United States have drawn closer to agreeing a blueprint for peace, but various questions remain. Can anyone accept Russian sincerity? How to treat Moscow's demands for territory in the Donbas, and beyond? And what is to be made of Russia's attitude towards security guarantees for Ukraine? In this bonus episode of GSB, we hear from a panel of experts on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Their remarks were recorded during a RUSI event on Tuesday 24 February 2026: Recording: Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia's Invasion | Royal United Services Institute. In an hour-long discussion, the RUSI panellists, including Dr Neil Melvin, Director of International Security, Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow and Dr Jonathan Eyal, Associate Director, tackled a wide range of questions relating to: What a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine might look like. The role of the rest of Europe in supporting Ukraine and applying pressure to Russia. Key challenges and opportunities for rebuilding Ukraine's post-war infrastructure. Become a RUSI member today to access the full recording: Membership.

Following Washington's emphasis on the Western Hemisphere in its 2025 National Security Strategy, this episode examines Cuba, Venezuela and the intensifying US-China competition in Latin America. In this episode, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, and Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to assess how the Trump administration's 'America First' strategy is reshaping security and geopolitics across the Americas, and what the shift means for regional stability and US global priorities. This discussion explores: · The elevation of the Western Hemisphere to the top tier of US national security priorities. · Cuba's re-emergence as a strategic concern, including energy pressure, migration controls and intelligence considerations. · Venezuela's uncertain transition following US intervention and the risks of proxy competition. · The expansion of bilateral security agreements and US military deployments in the Caribbean basin. · The implications of this hemispheric focus for US alliances and global commitments. · Whether Latin America is becoming an arena for US-China strategic rivalry.

The Greenland crisis has damaged goodwill and trust between the US and Europe and has undermined perceptions of US reliability and trustworthiness. Following the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, should Europe now pursue independence and begin to decouple from the US? In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing, we hear from RUSI's Director-General Rachel Ellehuus as she discusses the state of the US-Greenland-Denmark discussions, and the potential lasting impact on the transatlantic relationship and NATO. Rachel's remarks were recorded during a RUSI webinar on Friday 23 January 2026: https://my.rusi.org/resource-library-search.html?information_type=members-event-recordings In an hour-long discussion, the panellists, including Rachel Ellehuus, the Director General of RUSI, Oana Lungescu, a RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former long-serving NATO spokesperson and Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, focus on the diplomatic, military and geopolitical fallout from the Greenland crisis for the transatlantic relationship. Become a RUSI member today to access the full recording: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

As US–European relations face renewed strain under President Trump, this episode explores what the crisis means for NATO, European security and the United Kingdom. In this episode, Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Distinguished Fellow Sir David Lidington to discuss the growing crisis in transatlantic relations, from the Greenland dispute and uncertainty over US security commitments to the wider impact of Russia's war in Ukraine and shifting US strategy, and to assess what these changes mean for Europe's security order and the UK's strategic choices. The discussion explores: - The resilience of Europe's security order amid transatlantic tension. - The implications of the Greenland crisis for NATO and European unity. - How NATO, the EU and smaller groupings are adapting to a harsher security environment. - The future of the Ukraine war and its impact on European security. - Whether NATO and the transatlantic relationship can endure. - How the UK should position itself in a changing Euro-Atlantic landscape. Recorded on Tuesday 20 January 2026.

Dr Claudia Major joins Neil Melvin to discuss Germany's rearmament drive and its implications for European and transatlantic security. Germany is undertaking the most significant overhaul of its defence and security policy in decades, moving from long-standing restraint to large-scale rearmament and military reform. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Claudia Major, Senior Vice President, Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund, about what Germany's changing approach means for Europe's future security. This episode explores: - Germany's rearmament strategy, spending priorities and capability timelines. - The domestic political, public and institutional challenges to sustained defence investment. - The role of conscription, recruitment and societal defence in Germany's plans. - How the German defence industry is adapting to unprecedented demand. - What Germany's emergence as Europe's largest defence actor means for European security. - How Berlin's rearmament affects relations with European partners, the European Union and the United States. - Whether Germany's strategic culture is undergoing lasting change.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Nicholas Hopton join Neil Melvin to discuss key insights from the Doha Forum and the shifting Middle East security landscape. In this episode, recorded at the Doha Forum 2025, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and Nicholas Hopton, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former British Ambassador, to discuss the state of Middle Eastern security after two years of conflict. They explore how regional and global powers are responding to the effects of these conflicts, and what a new security order might look like. Topics discussed include: The current Middle East landscape following major conflicts across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the Gulf. Prospects for a new regional security order and pathways toward peace. How regional actors are positioning themselves diplomatically and strategically. Reactions to the new US National Security Strategy and perceptions of US engagement. Key takeaways from the Doha Forum debates on regional stability, governance and future diplomacy.

Dr Eric Rudenshiold joins Neil Melvin to examine regional change, great-power competition and Washington's renewed engagement within the Caspian region. The Caspian region is being reshaped by new political and economic dynamics as Central Asia and the South Caucasus deepen regional cooperation and navigate the competing ambitions of Russia, China and a newly engaged US. President Trump's first presidential-level C5+1 summit marks a notable shift in Washington's approach to a region long viewed as peripheral. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Eric Rudenshiold, Research Director at the Caspian Policy Center and former NSC Director for Central Asia, to assess how regional actors are adapting to changing power balances and what Washington's renewed focus could mean for future stability and connectivity. The discussion explores: Emerging geopolitical and economic trends across the Caspian Russia's and China's evolving roles and competing integration projects Growing regional cooperation and expanding Caspian links The impact of US re-engagement and whether it signals a lasting shift

Professor John Bew joins Neil Melvin to reflect on the UK's evolving global role, strategic reviews, and how Britain can navigate an era of geopolitical upheaval. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has faced a rapidly transforming global environment marked by the rise of revisionist powers, economic disruption and the erosion of the post-Cold War international order. In response, successive governments have launched a series of major strategic reviews to redefine Britain's global role and national security priorities. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Professor John Bew, former Foreign Policy Adviser to the UK Prime Minister. Professor Bew was the penholder on the last three UK national security strategies and was closely involved in the shaping of the most recent NATO Strategic Concept. Now back at King's College London, he reflects on how the UK has adapted to geopolitical change and what lies ahead for its foreign, defence and security policy. The discussion explores: How the global order is shifting and what this means for the UK's strategic posture. Lessons from three major UK national security reviews and their evolution. The UK's response to Russia's aggression and its separate, complex, relationship with China. The future of European security and Britain's role after Brexit. The Indo-Pacific tilt and what it reveals about the UK's global ambitions. The evolving UK-US relationship and prospects for sustaining the 'Special Relationship'. How Britain can define influence and leadership in a more competitive, multipolar world.

Trump's revived 'America First' policy is reshaping US-Latin America ties, testing regional stability, governance and the balance between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Nearly a year into his second term, President Trump has revived the 'America First' doctrine with a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere. As Washington prioritises border security, transactional diplomacy and strategic competition with China and Russia, Latin American governments are reassessing how to navigate a more conditional and bilateral US approach. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI. The discussion explores: · How the Trump Administration is reshaping US engagement with Latin America. · The effects of aid cuts, tariff threats and bilateral deals on regional governance. · Shifts in defence and security cooperation under the new US strategy. · How Latin American governments are responding to a tougher, more transactional Washington. · The challenge of balancing US pressure with growing Chinese and Russian influence.

Can Taipei maintain stability amid great power competition? Taiwan is facing rising Chinese pressure and increasingly uncertain US backing. As cross-strait tensions intensify, the central question for Taipei is whether it can maintain its delicate status quo. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss Taiwan's strategic outlook following the Taipei Security Dialogue. - The discussion explores: - China's evolving strategy towards Taiwan, from military build-up to grey zone coercion. - The state of US policy under President Trump and its implications for deterrence. - How Taiwan's government and society are responding to growing uncertainty. - The prospects for maintaining the cross-strait status quo amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.

As the end of the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, questions mount over President Trump's peace efforts and shifting international dynamics. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian Minister of Defence and now Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, to assess where the war now stands. The discussion explores: - Russia's intensified military campaign and Ukraine's counterstrikes - The collapse of Trump's diplomatic effort after the Alaska summit with Putin - Europe's response after being sidelined by Washington - Moscow's long-term strategy and potential challenges to NATO cohesion - Ukraine's security guarantees and the prospects for peace as a fifth year of fighting looms

Can Turkey act as a stabilising force in Syria and Iraq, or are its policies driven by short-term security concerns? As Ankara seeks to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, its approach to Syria and Iraq has become a key test of its regional influence. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI, Dr Serhat Erkmen, RUSI associate fellow and founder of the geopolitical risk consultancy, Pros and Cons, and Dr Oytun Orhan, Coordinator of Levant Studies at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), to examine Turkey's policies. The discussion explores the impact of domestic pressures, regional rivalries, security threats, and great power relations, asking whether Ankara can translate tactical gains into a sustainable regional role.

The Royal Navy Fleet flagship in Asia prompts a critical question: How serious is Britain about the Indo-Pacific? Against a backdrop of deepening UK - Japan defence and economic ties, shifting US engagement, and growing regional security pressures, this episode of Global Security Briefing explores what the HMS Prince of Wales' 2025 mission reveals about the UK's approach to the Indo-Pacific. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss how the deployment has been received in Japan and across the region, what has changed since the 2021 Royal Navy mission, and where Britain's Indo-Pacific policy may be heading in the years ahead.

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are testing US power and alliances. What does this mean for regional strategy and for the UK? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr. Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow, RUSI, to examine whether the Trump administration has a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy or is simply reacting to China's growing influence. As Washington debates its role in Asia amid military overstretch, defence industrial challenges, and diverging views on alliance priorities, the UK faces key questions about its own Indo-Pacific tilt. With British carriers deploying to the region and AUKUS under scrutiny, this episode explores whether the US has the will and means to lead, how regional actors are responding, and what all this means for UK strategy in an era of intensifying great power competition.

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended. As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?

How is the UK's Labour government approaching European security, and how does this compare to the Conservatives? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Richard Whitman to examine how much has changed since Labour came to power. The UK is currently setting a path to navigate an uncertain world in a series of major reviews - the Security and Defence Review has just been published, a new National Security Strategy was release, and a Defence Industry Strategy is due later in the year. But amid the flurry of Whitehall documents, Labour is under pressure to deliver on its promises and, crucially, match the resources to fund a major increase in defence spending. Discussants assess the British government's readiness to find the financial resources that will be necessary to match the political commitments it is making. What should be the UK priorities as European security looks likely to undergo significant changes in the coming decades?

Is there a real near-term prospect of an end of Russia's war against Ukraine? RUSI experts explain four and a half months of the Trump Administration's approach to the war. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Samuel Greene, who teaches Russian politics at King's College and is a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, and Andriy Zagorodnuyk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies, Kyiv, who also previously served as Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019-2020). They examine Trump's approach to the war, which initially seemed to reposition the United States as a broker between Moscow and Kyiv, and expressed itself ready to cede key demands to Russia with the objective of bringing the war to a conclusion Talks have dragged on, and the US President has seemed to grow frustrated with the complexity of the issues and the pace of the negotiations. While initially welcoming Trump's approach to the conflict, Russia has seemed unwilling to genuinely commit, opting instead to prolong the process. The team outlines what will come next and how United States policy towards Russia and Ukraine is likely to develop in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Can Peace Without Democracy Work? RUSI experts discuss the rise of illiberal peacebuilding in the Middle East and what it means for UK foreign policy. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, Dr Claire Smith, Deputy Associate Dean for the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Faculty Director of Postgraduate Research, University of York, and Dr Rana Khalaf, Research Consultant and non-resident fellow at the University of St Andrews, to examine how authoritarian approaches to conflict management are reshaping the post-war landscape in the Middle East. The panel explores the rise of illiberal peace - where stability is pursued through top-down control, elite deals, and the exclusion of dissent. From Syria and Egypt to Libya and Iraq, the episode considers how this model is gaining traction among domestic regimes and international actors alike. The discussion also reflects on the risks of prioritising order over democratic values and asks whether Western interventions have contributed to similar outcomes. Looking ahead, the team assesses what this shift means for the UK's role in a region where peace increasingly comes without democracy.