Global Security Briefing

As the Middle East is facing grave uncertainty against the backdrop of what is being called the 'Third Gulf War', Ankara is managing an uneasy relationship with Iran. Turkey is projecting itself as a more consequential regional actor across a variety of regional security spaces and is often described as a 'middle power'. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, to analyse Turkey's relationship with Iran and the main limits of Turkey's regional approach to diplomacy. This episode explores: · How Turkey approaches peacebuilding in the Middle East. · What Turkey's regional role is across different theatres in the Caucasus, Somalia and Iran. · The limits of eastern Mediterranean security architecture that excludes Turkey. · What British and European policymakers should learn from Turkey's approach to diplomacy. This podcast episode is part of a policy series for the 'Turkey's Peacebuilding in a Disordered Middle East' project of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) network. The Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin is funded by Stiftung Mercator and the Federal Foreign Office. CATS is the curator of the CATS Network, an international network of think-tanks and research institutions working on Turkey.

The US and Israel have launched major strikes on Iran, triggering retaliation across the region and raising fears of wider war. As tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, the implications extend far beyond the Middle East. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a specialist on Iranian and regional politics and an Associate Fellow with RUSI, to analyse the regional and global significance of the crisis. This episode explores: What the US and Israel are seeking to achieve, and how Iran is responding. Whether the strikes could threaten the survival of Iran's political system established in 1979. The risks of escalation and miscalculation across Iraq, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the Red Sea. The prospects for leadership disruption, succession dynamics, and elite cohesion inside Iran. The potential roles of Russia and China as diplomatic or strategic actors. The UK's response and whether it has adopted the right approach. Key scenarios for how the conflict may evolve in the coming days.

Ukraine, its European backers and the United States have drawn closer to agreeing a blueprint for peace, but various questions remain. Can anyone accept Russian sincerity? How to treat Moscow's demands for territory in the Donbas, and beyond? And what is to be made of Russia's attitude towards security guarantees for Ukraine? In this bonus episode of GSB, we hear from a panel of experts on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Their remarks were recorded during a RUSI event on Tuesday 24 February 2026: Recording: Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia's Invasion | Royal United Services Institute. In an hour-long discussion, the RUSI panellists, including Dr Neil Melvin, Director of International Security, Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow and Dr Jonathan Eyal, Associate Director, tackled a wide range of questions relating to: What a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine might look like. The role of the rest of Europe in supporting Ukraine and applying pressure to Russia. Key challenges and opportunities for rebuilding Ukraine's post-war infrastructure. Become a RUSI member today to access the full recording: Membership.

Following Washington's emphasis on the Western Hemisphere in its 2025 National Security Strategy, this episode examines Cuba, Venezuela and the intensifying US-China competition in Latin America. In this episode, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, and Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to assess how the Trump administration's 'America First' strategy is reshaping security and geopolitics across the Americas, and what the shift means for regional stability and US global priorities. This discussion explores: · The elevation of the Western Hemisphere to the top tier of US national security priorities. · Cuba's re-emergence as a strategic concern, including energy pressure, migration controls and intelligence considerations. · Venezuela's uncertain transition following US intervention and the risks of proxy competition. · The expansion of bilateral security agreements and US military deployments in the Caribbean basin. · The implications of this hemispheric focus for US alliances and global commitments. · Whether Latin America is becoming an arena for US-China strategic rivalry.

The Greenland crisis has damaged goodwill and trust between the US and Europe and has undermined perceptions of US reliability and trustworthiness. Following the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, should Europe now pursue independence and begin to decouple from the US? In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing, we hear from RUSI's Director-General Rachel Ellehuus as she discusses the state of the US-Greenland-Denmark discussions, and the potential lasting impact on the transatlantic relationship and NATO. Rachel's remarks were recorded during a RUSI webinar on Friday 23 January 2026: https://my.rusi.org/resource-library-search.html?information_type=members-event-recordings In an hour-long discussion, the panellists, including Rachel Ellehuus, the Director General of RUSI, Oana Lungescu, a RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former long-serving NATO spokesperson and Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, focus on the diplomatic, military and geopolitical fallout from the Greenland crisis for the transatlantic relationship. Become a RUSI member today to access the full recording: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

As US–European relations face renewed strain under President Trump, this episode explores what the crisis means for NATO, European security and the United Kingdom. In this episode, Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Distinguished Fellow Sir David Lidington to discuss the growing crisis in transatlantic relations, from the Greenland dispute and uncertainty over US security commitments to the wider impact of Russia's war in Ukraine and shifting US strategy, and to assess what these changes mean for Europe's security order and the UK's strategic choices. The discussion explores: - The resilience of Europe's security order amid transatlantic tension. - The implications of the Greenland crisis for NATO and European unity. - How NATO, the EU and smaller groupings are adapting to a harsher security environment. - The future of the Ukraine war and its impact on European security. - Whether NATO and the transatlantic relationship can endure. - How the UK should position itself in a changing Euro-Atlantic landscape. Recorded on Tuesday 20 January 2026.

Dr Claudia Major joins Neil Melvin to discuss Germany's rearmament drive and its implications for European and transatlantic security. Germany is undertaking the most significant overhaul of its defence and security policy in decades, moving from long-standing restraint to large-scale rearmament and military reform. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Claudia Major, Senior Vice President, Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund, about what Germany's changing approach means for Europe's future security. This episode explores: - Germany's rearmament strategy, spending priorities and capability timelines. - The domestic political, public and institutional challenges to sustained defence investment. - The role of conscription, recruitment and societal defence in Germany's plans. - How the German defence industry is adapting to unprecedented demand. - What Germany's emergence as Europe's largest defence actor means for European security. - How Berlin's rearmament affects relations with European partners, the European Union and the United States. - Whether Germany's strategic culture is undergoing lasting change.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Nicholas Hopton join Neil Melvin to discuss key insights from the Doha Forum and the shifting Middle East security landscape. In this episode, recorded at the Doha Forum 2025, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and Nicholas Hopton, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former British Ambassador, to discuss the state of Middle Eastern security after two years of conflict. They explore how regional and global powers are responding to the effects of these conflicts, and what a new security order might look like. Topics discussed include: The current Middle East landscape following major conflicts across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the Gulf. Prospects for a new regional security order and pathways toward peace. How regional actors are positioning themselves diplomatically and strategically. Reactions to the new US National Security Strategy and perceptions of US engagement. Key takeaways from the Doha Forum debates on regional stability, governance and future diplomacy.

Dr Eric Rudenshiold joins Neil Melvin to examine regional change, great-power competition and Washington's renewed engagement within the Caspian region. The Caspian region is being reshaped by new political and economic dynamics as Central Asia and the South Caucasus deepen regional cooperation and navigate the competing ambitions of Russia, China and a newly engaged US. President Trump's first presidential-level C5+1 summit marks a notable shift in Washington's approach to a region long viewed as peripheral. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Eric Rudenshiold, Research Director at the Caspian Policy Center and former NSC Director for Central Asia, to assess how regional actors are adapting to changing power balances and what Washington's renewed focus could mean for future stability and connectivity. The discussion explores: Emerging geopolitical and economic trends across the Caspian Russia's and China's evolving roles and competing integration projects Growing regional cooperation and expanding Caspian links The impact of US re-engagement and whether it signals a lasting shift

Professor John Bew joins Neil Melvin to reflect on the UK's evolving global role, strategic reviews, and how Britain can navigate an era of geopolitical upheaval. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has faced a rapidly transforming global environment marked by the rise of revisionist powers, economic disruption and the erosion of the post-Cold War international order. In response, successive governments have launched a series of major strategic reviews to redefine Britain's global role and national security priorities. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Professor John Bew, former Foreign Policy Adviser to the UK Prime Minister. Professor Bew was the penholder on the last three UK national security strategies and was closely involved in the shaping of the most recent NATO Strategic Concept. Now back at King's College London, he reflects on how the UK has adapted to geopolitical change and what lies ahead for its foreign, defence and security policy. The discussion explores: How the global order is shifting and what this means for the UK's strategic posture. Lessons from three major UK national security reviews and their evolution. The UK's response to Russia's aggression and its separate, complex, relationship with China. The future of European security and Britain's role after Brexit. The Indo-Pacific tilt and what it reveals about the UK's global ambitions. The evolving UK-US relationship and prospects for sustaining the 'Special Relationship'. How Britain can define influence and leadership in a more competitive, multipolar world.

Trump's revived 'America First' policy is reshaping US-Latin America ties, testing regional stability, governance and the balance between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Nearly a year into his second term, President Trump has revived the 'America First' doctrine with a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere. As Washington prioritises border security, transactional diplomacy and strategic competition with China and Russia, Latin American governments are reassessing how to navigate a more conditional and bilateral US approach. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI. The discussion explores: · How the Trump Administration is reshaping US engagement with Latin America. · The effects of aid cuts, tariff threats and bilateral deals on regional governance. · Shifts in defence and security cooperation under the new US strategy. · How Latin American governments are responding to a tougher, more transactional Washington. · The challenge of balancing US pressure with growing Chinese and Russian influence.

Can Taipei maintain stability amid great power competition? Taiwan is facing rising Chinese pressure and increasingly uncertain US backing. As cross-strait tensions intensify, the central question for Taipei is whether it can maintain its delicate status quo. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss Taiwan's strategic outlook following the Taipei Security Dialogue. - The discussion explores: - China's evolving strategy towards Taiwan, from military build-up to grey zone coercion. - The state of US policy under President Trump and its implications for deterrence. - How Taiwan's government and society are responding to growing uncertainty. - The prospects for maintaining the cross-strait status quo amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.