Geopolitical Cousins

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders(29:53) - Unproven Gems(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes(01:14) - US-Iran Conflict Overview(01:49) - Iran's Response and Global Reactions(04:58) - Historical Context and Comparisons(07:05) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations(07:48) - Regime Change and Internal Dynamics(09:01) - Global Implications and Multipolarity(33:26) - Terrorism and Security Concerns(41:57) - Bannon's Point and West LA(42:48) - World War III Threat Analysis(43:19) - Iran's Strategic Moves(44:31) - Empirical Evidence and Predictions(48:18) - Iran's Retaliation and US Response(55:20) - Trump's Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World(01:16:30) - Global Stability and Instability(01:20:05) - NBA Trade and Game 7 Predictions--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:48) - Setting the Scene: Current Geopolitical Climate(01:12) - Israel-Iran Tensions and MAGA Camp Dynamics(04:59) - Debating Regime Change and Airstrikes(11:04) - Historical Context: Lessons from Serbia(16:10) - Potential Scenarios for Iran's Future(27:11) - US Politics and Foreign Policy Implications(35:21) - Comparing the Iran-Iraq War to Current Conflicts(35:37) - The Dynamics of the Iran-Iraq War(37:44) - Potential Global Repercussions(39:58) - The Myth of the China Block(41:13) - The Role of the US and Its Allies(42:21) - The Impact on Global Markets(45:02) - Technological Advancements in Warfare(47:53) - The Need for a New Global Congress(59:02) - Historical Precedents for Global Cooperation(01:08:06) - The Decline of International Law(01:08:16) - Charismatic Authority in Foreign Policy(01:08:59) - Institutions vs. Concerts(01:10:01) - The Role of the United Nations(01:10:51) - The Concert of Europe Concept(01:11:14) - Challenges of Charismatic Authority(01:11:51) - Legitimacy and Spheres of Influence(01:13:55) - Historical Context and Modern Implications(01:16:17) - The Need for a New Global Order(01:21:39) - Hypothetical Scenarios and Real-World Applications(01:29:14) - Breaking News and Current Events(01:37:56) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Speculations--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapMarko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:27) - Initial Reactions and Context(01:22) - Details of the Israel-Iran Conflict(03:45) - Analysis of Military Actions(08:11) - Geopolitical Implications(17:48) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations(32:52) - Civil War and Japan's Example(33:25) - NATO's Campaign Against Serbia(34:13) - Israel's Military Capabilities(36:45) - US Options and Iran's Response(38:46) - Conspiracy Theories and South Park(41:36) - Iran's Limited Retaliation Options(44:38) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook(56:34) - Closing Thoughts on Multipolarity--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapMarko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-driving cars.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:32) - Los Angeles in Turmoil(04:38) - Media's Role in the Crisis(10:14) - Immigration and Policy Debate(16:33) - Federal vs. State Authority(34:00) - Economic and Trade Implications(43:34) - Populism and Political Strategy(44:29) - Populist Policies and Economic Impact(46:08) - Immigration Policies and Political Shifts(47:04) - Italy's Political Landscape and Georgia Maloney(50:16) - US-China Trade Relations and Economic Strategies(52:28) - Immigration and US Demographics(01:16:41) - California Secession and US Political Polarization(01:32:48) - Future Topics--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapMarko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things somewhere else.”--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction and Episode Overview(00:11) Welcoming New Listeners(00:18) Debate on Globalization and Tariffs(00:57) Listener Feedback and Engagement(01:54) Marco's Haircut Story(02:41) Purpose of the Podcast(10:31) Debate on Tariffs and Globalization(41:21) The Decline of American Car Manufacturing(42:29) The Washing Machine Revolution(43:07) The Impact of Tariffs on Innovation(43:38) Debating Historical Trade Policies(46:14) The Role of Industrial Capacity in War(49:06) Globalization and Redistribution of Wealth(54:05) The 2008 Financial Crisis and Corporate Bailouts(56:13) The Future of Manufacturing and War(59:27) The Reality of War Footing and Defense Spending(01:08:22) The Ideological Debate on Globalization(01:14:05) Reflecting on Historical Conflicts with China(01:14:28) Proxy Wars and America's Capabilities(01:15:05) US-China Relations and Economic Strategies(01:17:41) Technological Advancements and National Security(01:30:30) The Future of Warfare and Global Power Dynamics(01:30:53) Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia(01:33:35) Implications of Drone Warfare on Global Security(01:39:12) The Evolution of Warfare and the Role of Technology(01:45:58) The Future of Nation States in a Technologically Advanced World--Referenced in the Show:Why Ukraine War's Deadly Drones Are Now Flying By 12-Mile-Long ‘Wires' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLA_qgl2YYs&t=822sWhy This Russian Drone Developer Isn’t Impressed by U.S. Tech - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM&t=865sGeopolitics of Dune – https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-geopolitics-of-dune/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko kicks off this week’s episode with a takedown of Middle East punditry, arguing that Biden’s calm, calculated response to Iran’s attack on Israel is exactly what stability looks like in a multipolar world. While Jacob frets over deterrence and mixed signals, Marko doubles down: ambiguity is the new clarity. They unpack India’s chaotic yet predictable election, game out what a third Modi term could mean for trade and alliances, and roll their eyes at the latest BRICS buzz. Also: Taylor Swift’s soft power, Saudi predictability, and why global order now runs on vibes, oil, and opportunism.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:48) - Early Morning Dedication and Strategist Life(01:38) - Father Moses and the Rise of Manliness(04:12) - Orthodox Christianity Explained(06:14) - Russian Orthodox Church and Geopolitical Influence(11:04) - Cultural Shifts and Masculinity Crisis(15:23) - Debating Modern Masculinity and Education(17:42) - Political and Social Commentary(22:44) - Climate Change and Policy Critique(27:30) - The Role of Media and Public Figures(42:14) - Personal Stories and Reflections(46:44) - Toxic Masculinity and the Cornell Glee Club(47:08) - Russia's Offensive Immigration Policy(48:08) - The West's Immigration Strategy(50:57) - Impact of Immigration Policies on Education(56:20) - US Deficit and Fiscal Policies(01:28:59) - NBA Finals and Geopolitical Implications

Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime. Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap(04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks(06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power(17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks(34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments(36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran(37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering(37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power(39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position(39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection(39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses(41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations(45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada(55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions(01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy(01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts(01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts(01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval(01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid(01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts(01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate(01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions

The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel(02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts(07:43) - Middle East Developments(23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation(41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction(45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art(47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics(47:20) - Defining Power and Influence(48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions(48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates(49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession(51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity(54:01) - China's Position and Challenges(59:09) -European Union and Western Europe(01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance(01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges(01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence(01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge(01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future(01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages(01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence(01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation(01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position(01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence(01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience(01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State(01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts

This week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video cameos.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Overview(01:16) - Middle East Tensions: King Abdullah, Houthis, and Trump(06:39) - Israel's Strategic Challenges(11:56) - Jordan's Geopolitical Balancing Act(22:30) - Burkina Faso's Social Media Strategy(29:13) - The President's Social Media Strategy(30:38) - Geopolitical Challenges in Burkina Faso(31:29) - The Role of Gold in Global Politics(34:10) - Global Perception of US Tariffs(36:20) - Hegemonic Stability and Global Order(44:35) - The Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Global Conflict(54:08) - China's Potential as a Global Hegemon(56:34) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

After a whirlwind of parenting, flights, and failed schedules, the cousins are back with overreactions and the U.S. dollar’s free fall. They riff on Chinese tech breakthroughs... but Marko's still not buying BYD over a German car. Europe? Left for dead, so maybe it’s time to buy? Jacob freaks out over India-Pakistan tensions, while Marko tries to keep us from launching WWIII. They also touch on Trump’s Nobel dreams, Pope predictions, and why Japan just became the spiciest trade negotiator in the room. Plus: rice diplomacy and NBA despair.Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Announcements(00:51) - Catching Up After a Busy Week(01:56) - Overreactions Segment Introduction(03:51) - First Overreaction: US Dollar Decline(13:19) - Second Overreaction: China's Tech Advancements(22:55) - Third Overreaction: Europe's Geopolitical Decade(26:01) - Fourth Overreaction: Trump Administration's Peace Dividend(31:43) - Discussion on the Vatican and the Pope(33:15) - Conspiracy Theories and Pope Francis(34:34) - The Future of the Papacy(35:52) - Trump as Pope?(36:55) - The Role of the Vatican(40:06) - Global Politics and Religion(41:50) - Canada and Australia Elections(46:51) - Japan's Trade Stance(52:29) - India-Pakistan Tensions(56:04) - Multipolar World Conflicts(01:03:36) - NBA Playoffs and Predictions

Marko unloads on the myth that austerity worked in Greece, calling out lazy linear thinking, Eurozone nerds with Excel models, and Paul Krugman’s fantasy economics. He explains how Greece’s turnaround was real - but not for the reasons anyone thinks - and why Syriza’s U-turn was political heroism, not betrayal. The conversation pivots to India, where Modi is playing the U.S., China, and Europe against each other with tariff diplomacy. Plus: Ottoman nostalgia, Donbas deadlock, and why even ISIS prefers Toyotas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:17) - Greece's Economic Turnaround(03:00) - Debating Austerity and Economic Policies(07:33) - Greece's Political Landscape and Reforms(12:17) - Comparing Greece and Brexit(30:19) - India's Market and Global Trade Dynamics(37:43) - The Importance of Foreign Competition in Domestic Markets(40:33) - The Impact of Tariffs on the Auto Industry(43:53) - India's Strategy Towards Foreign Auto Companies(45:12) - Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update(53:15) - Trump's Tariff Policies and Their Implications(56:23) - The Future of US Trade Deals(01:03:42) - Concluding Thoughts on Trade and Geopolitics

Trump's tariff chaos isn’t strategy - it’s a policy car crash in slow motion. Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic walk listeners through how we got here: tariffs based on 6th grade math, no off-ramps, and the U.S. launching a trade war… against everyone. Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s like, cool, we’ll just trade with each other. This isn’t about toaster prices—it’s about the U.S. exporting its own recession. If April 9th isn’t the pivot, buckle up. Come for the analysis; stay for Marko’s tortured basketball metaphor at the end. Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:32) - Unexpected Market Concerns(01:43) - Tariffs and Market Reactions(03:33) - Global Trade Dynamics(05:06) - Impact on US Industries(12:39) - Agricultural and Energy Sectors(19:30) - Global Economic Shifts(26:43) - Trump's Acceleration and Structuralism(27:04) - Insane Policymaking and Tariffs(28:17) - The Importance of Due Process(29:13) - Arbitrary Policies and Financial Concerns(33:20) - Market Timing and Optimism(36:37) - Geopolitical Constraints and Future Outlook(44:00 ) - Kevin Durant and Trade Barriers Analogy(49:19) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken (54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics--Referenced in the Show:Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

Jacob and Marko make a cousins episode happen even as Jacob is moving into a new office and Marko is on the road – at one point he was literally recording from a bathroom at a hotel in Fort Lauderdale because that is the only place he could get WiFi. What other podcast hosts have that kind of dedication? None! This week the cousins tackle Trump’s latest bevy of tariff threats, discuss the improvement in India/China relations, and close with some lessons to learn from the ongoing protests in Serbia.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro(03:04) - US Tariffs (07:42) - Potential Domestic and Global Reactions to Tariffs(14:17) - Challenges in Renegotiating Trade Deals(28:58) - India-China Border Disputes and Economic Implications(32:17) - India and China: Complementary Economies(44:18) – Serbia/Turkey/Indonesia(53:59) – Over/under

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran(31:00) - Turkey(46:00) – Indonesia(58:00) – China(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft

The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots. -- (00:00) - Intro(00:50) - Approach and Precepts(11:00) – Net Assessments(18:44) – Multipolarity(34:19) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy(42:44) - Canada-US Trade Tensions(47:42) – Inflation and pain thresholds(52:27) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies