Geopolitical Cousins

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Open(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B(11:43) - Door C War But Oil(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome01:32 Beer And Banter05:05 Trump Pause And Troops06:43 Oil Shock Timeline08:41 Houthis And Red Sea11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil13:43 Troop Math Reality18:06 War Outlook Shifts24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios28:50 Iran Constraints Debate32:20 Market Mispricing Pain34:12 China And Allies Fallout35:09 China Leverage on Iran36:55 Low Conviction Warnings37:53 Middle East War Normalized40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold48:36 Markets Start to Crack53:24 Munitions and Time Limits54:55 Europe Energy Exposure56:52 Europe Must Get Real59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.--Timestamps:(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap(02:15) - Trump War Quotes(02:54) - Menu Metaphor(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:47) - Oval Office Firings(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.--Timestamps:(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters(02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era(06:36) - Asia Demand Explained(08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike(11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing(16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom(21:21) - Can US Build Tankers(23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence(27:08) - Red Sea Part Two(30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes(35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits(37:27) - Where To Follow Ed(38:41) - Closing Thanks--Referenced in the Show:Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)--Timestamps:(01:23) - Wisconsin field research(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe(30:05) - Spain politics and energy(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth(39:31) - Why No World War(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed(50:10) - World War Incentives(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand." --Timestamps:(01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week(02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War(04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check(10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout(12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets(13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock(19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk(22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration(25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It(33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat(35:01) - Multipolar Message To World(38:58) - Unipolar Limits(40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race(41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century(44:24) - Is It About China(47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal(49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall(51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic(53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent(55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk(01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate(01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings(01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions(01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy(01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation. Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyingly - extremely serious. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Beginning(02:29) - Who Showed Up to the Beijing Parade & “Board of Peace”?(04:24) - What Even Is the “Board of Peace”? (07:32) - Iran Time!(11:14) - Iran Capabilities & Asymmetry(14:54) - Worst-Case Escalation(25:36) - Trump’s “Punch-Then-Deal” Strategy(33:06) - Did the US Miss the Protest Window?(36:27) - So What Happens Next?(39:26) - Why Airstrikes Became America’s Default(40:45) - Geopolitics vs. US Domestic Politics(42:35) - Nuclear Proliferation Returns(48:18) - The Real Proliferation Risks(54:20) - Clean Energy, Cartels, and Why States Control Nukes(58:18) - Munich Security Conference Check-In(01:06:20) - Europe’s Next Security Umbrella(01:11:48) - Europe’s Demographics & Integration Debate(01:15:57) - The Multi‑Ethnic Europe That Might Return--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire, TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:33) - The Wire(05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias(06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strategic Thinking(16:16) - Effective Media Consumption Strategies(28:23) - Balancing Realism and Idealism in Humanitarian Work(35:28) - Navigating Career Dissonance(35:56) - Breaking into Geopolitical Analysis(37:16) - The Value of Mentorship(39:39) - Building Expertise in Geopolitics(41:27) - Creating and Sharing Content(43:18) - The Importance of Learning and Adaptability(44:59) - Geopolitical Decisions in Various Careers(53:53) - Shadow Fleets and Oil Markets(01:00:28) - Multipolar vs. Unipolar World Conflicts(01:06:42) - Balkanization of the Internet(01:09:25) - The Rise of Nationalism in Software(01:10:36) - The Tension Between Tech Companies and Governments(01:12:46) - The Impact of Snowden's Leak on American Tech(01:13:26) - Trump's Influence on Tech Nationalism(01:18:30) - Trump's Strategy for the Midterms(01:29:53) - The Geopolitical Importance of the Midwest(01:37:12) - The Future of Geopolitically Mundane Places--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:47) - Current Events(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:08) - Current Global Events and Updates(01:55) - Mark Carney's Geopolitical Moves(03:09) - Analysis of Carney's Speech at Davos(03:58) - Comparative Historical Speeches(04:57) - Canada's Strategic Position and Response(07:09) - Realpolitik and Global Power Dynamics(08:56) - Implications for Future Geopolitical Strategies(16:22) - The Role of Morality in International Relations(29:10) - Underdogs and National Struggles(34:23) - Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approaches(35:23) - The Dangers of Morality in Foreign Policy(36:17) - Critique of Mark Carney's Speech(38:45) - Canada's Bold Moves Against Trump(49:29) - The Iran Situation and Oil Prices(53:33) - Domestic Issues: Minnesota and ICE(01:07:14) - Grizzly History and Modern Comparisons(01:07:50) - Personal Experiences and Political Commentary(01:09:04) - Republican Backlash and Political Dynamics(01:15:25) - Midwest Musings and Listener Feedback(01:19:32) - China's Internal Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks(01:26:05) - Taiwan Tensions and Future Predictions(01:33:34) - Closing Thoughts and Future Plans--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’re a fan. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Today's word is....(00:39) - Listener Feedback and Basketball Metaphors(03:18) - Trump's Tariff Threats and Greenland(05:25) - Canada's Strategic Partnership with China(19:08) - Geopolitical Analysis and Bias(43:26) - Dealing with Hate Mail and Identity(43:55) - The Problem with Being Right(44:09) - Kobe Bryant's Shot Chart and Analysis Integrity(44:57) - Buddhism and Nihilism in Analysis(45:37) - Finance and Objectivity(47:29) - Bias in Finance and Politics(52:12) - Physical Fitness and Analysis(01:01:03) - Frameworks and Methodologies(01:12:15) - Humor and Passion in Analysis(01:15:02) - Final Thoughts on Being an Analyst--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.--Timestamps:(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro