Exploring Prosperity- Challenging Pessimism in the US

I interviewed Dr. Jared Rubin this week to explore the historical drivers of economic growth and we discussed the apparent disparity between the current global prosperity and the widespread pessimism in the United States, as evidenced by surveys. As an expert in economic history, Rubin provided valuable perspectives on these complex issues. Rubin, a professor and co-director of the Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society at Chapman University, co-authored the book "How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth" with Mark Koyama which delved deeply into the theories of other economic historians to uncover the crucial elements that have propelled global economic advancement throughout history. Conclusion from the interview: “Best time to be born is now, but…” The interview reveals Rubin's perspective that the drivers of economic growth over the last few centuries have developed institutional and cultural inertia, causing prosperity to be resilient and highly likely to continue. However, his work showed that there are 3 key threats to be aware of from history: i) Erosion of constraints on executive power; Today’s political polarization is a concern/ ii) Major environmental change; Climate change can lead to accelerated changes and reactions/ and iii) Extreme warfare; Growing geopolitical instability draws nuclear powers closer to war which raises risks of nuclear war. These risks to sustained economic growth can carry a heavier emotional response than their likelihood of occurring and could explain the disconnect. Chapter Guide to the Interview: 00:00 - Introduction 02:12 - The Drivers of Global Economic Growth The main factors that have contributed to economic growth historically, including geography, demography, colonialism, institutions, and culture. 10:56 - England's Economic Rise (1000-1750) This section discusses the unique combination of factors that led to England becoming the birthplace of the modern economy. 17:19 - The Impact of the Printing Press This chapter explores how the adoption of the printing press differed between Western Europe and the Islamic world, and its consequences for economic development. 36:13 - Modern Challenges: War, China, and Global Prosperity This section covers contemporary issues, including the threat of nuclear war, China's economic rise, and the overall improvement in global living standards. 53:10 - Future Prospects and the Importance of Poverty Eradication The final chapter discusses the main threats to continued economic growth, the potential for further poverty reduction, and the importance of human ingenuity in solving global problems. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe

I hosted with my friends John Fagan and Brendan Walsh a very revealing, compelling, timeless and entertaining macro strategy session with Russell Napier on Friday, January 29, 2023. Russell is issuing a serious warning to his institutional and individual clients who subscribe to his newsletter- an era of financial repression has arrived that reverses many of the characteristics of successful investing. Here is a link to Russell's newsletter: https://russellnapier.co.uk/Today investors face a tipping point as significant as it was in 1971 when the US exited the Bretton Woods agreement and the world began a new economic experiment- never before had a major global currency disconnected itself from gold (or any other hard asset). This (as well as some other events he describes) allowed for the steady and powerful growth of credit to it current all-time record high. Central banks have raised rates which is threatening the global financial system with the prospects of eventual default. Russell points out how governments have resorted to currency debasement in the past, and why they will follow the same path this time. Debasement is the act of lowering the value of a currency through inflation to pay off debts- holding rates below true inflation. Russell calls this debasement “Financial Repression” and he describes it in the interview as “Stealing money from old people slowly”; slowly, he explains, because “You mustn’t frighten the horses, you can’t afford for them to stampede.” Russell describes how governments are doing this today, and what mechanisms they will use to get Debt:GDP levels back to more reasonable levels; a process that will take 10-15 years where markets and central banks must take a back seat to the power of governments. Listen to get a PHD- level understanding of what Russell believes will be a difficult decade for professional investors. Timeline: 00:00 Highlights 00:51 Introduction of Russell Napier 02:11 Debt has grown to all-time record levels and we have reached the trigger point 05:11 Japan, Europe, US Japan will be lynchpin- this test case may be unfolding this quarter, watch carefully 08:14 Bretton Woods in perspective and other contributing factors 10:50 Debt vs Debasement- What is the history? 14:17 A FEW GOOD MEN- Governments can't handle the truth 14:38 How do governments subvert central banks? 17:30 The pressures building in Europe 21:02 Significance of Draghi- "We will do whatever it takes" 22:38 Japan hedge funds have a one-sided bet, and the wrong way 27:44 The Surprise about freezing dollar assets in Russia Central Bank was not that the US did it… 29:57 Liquidity and velocity are huge issues- algorithms risk 35:25 China- its debt and its economy, the same kettle of fish 39:01 Chinese RMB vs US Dollar as reserve currency 41:51 The Chinese economy; Debt: GDP and exchange rate 44:41 Which assets should you own in the next decade? 47:54 Equities, rates, inflation- Infrastructure spending, industrial 49:48 Bitcoin, Stablecoins, Central Bank Digital Currencies 52:02 "The greatest threat to liberty in the world today" 54:10 WHY NOW? Why not many more years of more debt before it blows? 58:10 Why 400bp spread between inflation and interest rates? Don't frighten the horses. 60:05 Subscribe to Napier Research information ERIC for institutions 60:38 Take Russell's course- Advanced Valuation - Financial Markets This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe

In this captivating interview, we delve into the remarkable journey of Patricia Chadwick, whose life story serves as a beacon of hope and resilience. Born into a strict cult, Patricia endured a childhood devoid of culture, fairness, and freedom. Despite these daunting circumstances, she found the strength to break free through the goodness she latched onto from those around her and through her keen sense of duty, responsibility and hard work that eventually helped carve her path to success. Hers is an inspiring tale of how curiosity and resilience propelled Patricia from the depths of deprivation to a life of fulfillment and achievement.Thank you to our sponsor Truflation (https://truflation.com/) that provides accurate pricing statistics for over 13mm datapoints for asset managers, governments, companies and the general public.This is a discussion about Patricia's remarkable life that she wrote about in her two books: Breaking Glass: Tales from the Witch of Wall Street, and Little Sister: A Memoir.Throughout the conversation, Patricia shares invaluable insights into her extraordinary rise from adversity. With humility, she credits her mentors for guiding her along the way, yet it's clear that her unwavering determination and flexibility played pivotal roles in her journey. Against the backdrop of societal progress, Patricia's story offers a powerful reminder that, despite challenges, progress is inevitable, and the human spirit is capable of overcoming formidable obstacles.Beyond the interview, Patricia's story unfolds in her books, providing a deeper understanding of the hardships she faced and the triumphs she achieved. Her journey serves as a testament to the resilience of the human spirit and the boundless potential that lies within each of us. Tune in to discover how Patricia's resilience, courage, and belief in a brighter future can inspire us all to embrace optimism and strive for greatness in our own lives. Subscribe to the Exploring Prosperity YouTube Channel (HERE). Buy her books! Breaking Glass: Tales from the Witch of Wall Street (BUY HERE)Little Sister: A Memoir (BUY HERE) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe

In this podcast, my friend Brendan Walsh and I sat down with Stefan Rust, the CEO and founder of Truflation, a company aiming to revolutionize how we measure and understand inflation. In our interview on Feb 23, 2024, Rust explained how his motivation to start Truflation stemmed from the shortcomings in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates and reports inflation data - a process that is flawed and does not accurately reflect the true cost of living increases experienced by consumers. Truflation takes a fresh, data-driven approach by monitoring millions of real-time pricing data points across various spending categories like housing, transportation, and utilities.A key difference highlighted is Truflation's treatment of housing costs, which account for a 26% weighting compared to the BLS's 40%+ weighting. Truflation argues their housing data, pulled from real-time rental listings on sites like Zillow and Redfin, better reflects the true costs faced by consumers. In contrast, the BLS's housing data has a significant 9-month lag and relies on surveys of homeowners' estimates of rental values. Truflation also breaks down costs into 12 granular categories versus the BLS's 6 categories.Transparency is a core tenet of Truflation's approach. Their methodology is fully documented and open to community feedback for improvements every 6 months. All original data is immutably recorded on the blockchain, allowing tracking of any methodological changes over time through new data streams. Truflation offers various services from raw data feeds to analyst reports and forecasting up to 3 months out, with their 1-month inflation forecasts proving accurate within around 10 basis points of reported BLS numbers on average.A major advantage Truflation provides clients is the ability to access the raw data via APIs and calculate inflation measures based on their own preferred weightings across the 12 categories tracked. Some clients prefer leveraging Truflation's analyst interpretations through services like group webinars or one-on-one sessions. The goal is to provide options beyond just taking Truflation's headline inflation numbers at face value.While the BLS revises its CPI numbers over time, often suppressing reported inflation according to Rust, all of Truflation's original data is immutably recorded to the blockchain. Rust acknowledges challenges in longer-term 3-month forecasting due to potential "black swan" events but believes Truflation's core innovation is providing a more real-time, transparent and accurate measure of true consumer inflation than traditional government sources by leveraging modern data sources and computing power. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe

This podcast is my last essay on my Substack account. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe

The American university system has long been lauded for its excellence, but recent headlines paint a picture of turmoil. In this interview, Sam Chauncey, a veteran administrator with seven decades of experience in and around Yale University, offers his insights on the evolving landscape of higher education. This interview is timely given the growing protests at universities across the US that culminated last evening in the arrests of 300 students at Columbia University. Ray Dalio's "A Changing World Order" cites the higher education system as one of the glimmering hopes for reversing our country's declining status as a world power, but Sam points out that confidence in our university system has also been declining significantly along with many other institutions. About Sam Chauncey: Henry "Sam" Chauncey Jr. is a highly respected figure within the Yale University community. He has held various leadership positions throughout his long career, starting as a student in 1953. After graduating in 1957, he transitioned to administration, serving as Assistant Dean of Yale College, Special Assistant to President Kingman Brewster, and eventually Secretary of the University. Sam played a significant role in navigating the turbulent 1960s and 70s at Yale, including the admission of women to the undergraduate college and maintaining campus stability during the New Haven Black Panther trials as well as Vietnam and civil rights protests. He later ventured outside of Yale, founding the Science Park Development Corporation and serving as President and CEO of Gaylord Hospital. However, his passion for education led him back to Yale, where he established the innovative Yale Health Management Program, a first of its kind within the university. Thank you to our sponsor Truflation: Learn more at www.truflation.com. Bio: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Cha... Subscribe to my Newsletter at: Sam's extensive experience and deep understanding of the university system make him a valuable voice in the ongoing conversation about the future of American higher education. Concerns and Challenges: Sam expresses concern about the declining ability of universities to fulfill their traditional mission of shaping individuals into positive contributors to society. He attributes this to several factors, including: • Fragmentation: Universities have grown in size and complexity, leading to a loss of focus and a dilution of their impact on individual students. • Leadership Decline: The diminishing role of university presidents and the erosion of public trust in universities further weaken their influence. • Shifting Priorities: Student interests have diversified, with numerous activities vying for their attention, potentially impacting the sense of community within college walls. The Evolving Landscape: Sam discusses the changing dynamics of student activism and how universities are navigating protests. He observes a shift in the concept of "justice," where outcomes often take precedence over process. He also notes the rising costs of higher education, which, coupled with questionable returns on investment, make traditional universities less attractive for some. The Impact of Education: Measuring the true impact of a university education remains a challenge. Sam highlights the difficulty in defining success solely based on titles like CEO or President, emphasizing the value of contributions like working with Doctors Without Borders. Universities, including Yale, haven't done enough to quantify the societal value of their graduates. Yale University: A Case Study: Sam reflects on how Yale has changed over time, including student demographics and the overall university experience. He ponders whether the Yale education truly sets its graduates apart. Conclusion: Sam's insights raise critical questions about the future of American universities. The interview emphasizes the need for universities to re-evaluate their priorities, address the concerns surrounding leadership and cost, and ensure their graduates are well-equipped to contribute positively to the world.Personal Note: Sam Chauncey has had a remarkable career marked by his clarity of thought, his ability to gain the trust and confidence of colleagues, to identify problems and opportunities and to motivate those around him to work towards a common goal, and to accomplish those goals consistently over the last 70 years since he matriculated at Yale in 1954. It was my privilege to have met him in 1980 and to have counted him among my closest friends ever since. This interview is loaded with insights drawn from his experience and wisdom. University presidents, administrators, faculty and students might all find this a valuable session. The last section of the interview covers his career progression beginning at 72:25 which I highly recommend viewing. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscr