Energy Capital Podcast

ERCOT’s current rulemaking process will shape the Texas grid for decades, driving infrastructure investments that last 30 to 50 years and cost billions of dollars.During this year’s SXSW Texas Future’s Summit in Austin, ERCOT Chief Executive Pablo Vegas sat down with Energy Capital Podcast hosts Josh Rhodes and Matt Boms to explain the grid operator’s approach.ERCOT has added more than 60 gigawatts of new supply since the devastating Winter Storm Uri blackouts in 2021, and battery storage resources have grown from a few hundred megawatts to more than 16 gigawatts. Vegas said the grid is more reliable today than it was three years ago. The challenge now is to plan for what’s coming. Last month, ERCOT announced that load interconnection requests now exceed 410 gigawatts. For comparison, existing load has peaked at around 85 gigawatts in recent years. New data centers drive much of that growth.In this episode, Vegas described how ERCOT determines which projects in the interconnection pipeline are likely to be built. Even a fraction of those projects could reshape the system, especially if data centers arrive in the concentrations that some projections suggest.Vegas also walked through ERCOT’s proposed batch study process for reviewing large load interconnection requests, and why the current one-review-at-a-time approach is inadequate given growing load projectionsAnd he discussed residential demand response — and why it may be a faster path to reliability than building new generation or transmission.The ERCOT grid is growing like never before — yet demand is growing even faster. ERCOT’s response to this challenge will shape our grid and our economy for generations. Check out this week’s episode to learn more about what that response will look like.Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 - Introduction and Pablo Vegas* 03:40 - Lessons from Winter Storm Uri* 05:42 - How 60 GW of New Supply Changed the Grid* 09:18 - Filtering the 230 GW Load Forecast* 13:28 - Why Data Center Load Broke the Old Process* 19:15 - How ERCOT’s Batch Study Process Works* 22:02 - DERs and the Distribution Grid* 26:57 - Real-Time Co-optimization and RTC+B* 30:11 - Battery Duration vs. Flexibility* 33:26 - Residential Demand Response* 36:41 - How ERCOT Is Using AI* 40:35 - What Texas Should Learn and ExportResourcesPeople & Organizations* Pablo Vegas (LinkedIn)* ERCOT (Website)* Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn)* Webber Energy Group (Website - LinkedIn)* IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn)* Matt Boms (LinkedIn)* Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance (Website - LinkedIn)* Energy Capital (Website - LinkedIn - YouTube)Company & Industry News* ERCOT Goes Live with Real-Time Co-optimization Plus Batteries* RTC Deployed, ERCOT Takes on New Challenges in 2026* New Batch Study Framework for Large Load Interconnections* Texas Task Force Aims to Tear Down Barriers to Virtual Power Plant PilotPrograms & Processes Discussed* ERCOT Large Load Integration* ERCOT Large Load Working Group* Real-Time Co-optimization Plus Batteries Task Force* Aggregate Distributed Energy Resource Pilot ProjectRelated Podcasts by Energy Capital* Who Pays for Texas Grid Growth? Roundtable Discussion* Is Texas Ready for Winter Now? with Will McAdams* Flexibility Driving Reliability and Affordability with Matt BomsTranscriptJoshua Rhodes (01:37.714)the most in the first few years leading our cup? Pablo Vegas (01:40.878)I guess what’s been really interesting learning is, and when you work in the utilities space, and I worked in the utility space in Arcox, back in Albuquerque, Texas, but I’ve worked in the utility space, as you said, for quite a while, for over about 20 years. Pablo Vegas (01:56.908)I was surprised how different grid operations is from what it looks like inside of the utility. So the issues that the grid operator deals with in contrast to what a utility company deals with is pretty stark. And while there’s a lot of kind of overlap on elements of it, of course, but kind of the focus of what we’re looking at, which is, you know, looking at all of the issues across all the different components and players in the system, it’s a lot more complex trying to consider all of the Pablo Vegas (02:26.67)needs of the different stakeholders that are part of the process. When you’re a utility company, you’re always laser focused on your customers, you know, directly, and you’re serving them and you’re making sure that you are working constructively with, you know, your regulators and policymakers to serve your customers. At the grid operator level, the customers are still a very critical part of the conversation, but you’re doing that through one layer removed in helping to oversee the processes. Pablo Vegas (02:52.354)that govern the utilities and the power producers and the retail electric providers and the brokers and traders, the large industrials and the small consumer, everything in between. And so you’re really thinking about kind of the polic

Texas built its electricity market to react quickly to changes in demand, attract private capital, and protect ratepayers from private-sector investment risk.A wave of large load interconnection requests is testing that model.In this conversation, Katie Coleman, a leading Texas energy lawyer and partner at O’Melveny & Myers LLP, describes the pressure points facing the ERCOT grid. Officials are scrambling to determine which loads are real, how quickly they will arrive, and how the state should build transmission and other infrastructure to support them.Coleman brings ERCOT’s challenge into focus. She explains how customers behave differently — signing different contracts, facing different operating constraints, and placing different demands on the system — and grid managers have to juggle those variables.She also walks through a basic divide in the Texas market between generation and transmission. Private investors assume the risk of building generation. But with transmission, regulated utilities must get permission from the PUC to build power lines and then charge consumers for them (plus profit margin) over time.As interconnection requests climb and forecasts shift, these infrastructure decisions will become increasingly important — for the ERCOT grid and Texans’ power bills.The episode explores a range of issues, including:* How ERCOT and policymakers should judge new load forecasts.* Why transmission planning is a central constraint.* How Texas can preserve market discipline while serving growth.Coleman also points to the importance of regulatory stability. As large customers, generators, and utilities make long-term decisions about growth and investment, they need an energy market they can read.That predictability becomes even more crucial, Coleman says, as Texas debates how to respond to unprecedented demand growth.'Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 - Introduction & Katie Coleman* 01:05 - Katie’s Energy Origin Story* 04:01 - Why She Represents Industrials* 05:55 - What Large Power Users Want* 08:56 - Speed to Power in Texas* 10:57 - How Industrial Demand Response Works* 17:04 - Crypto, Data Centers, and Misperceptions* 20:43 - How the Energy-Only Market Works* 28:27 - Load Forecasts and Transmission Risk* 36:46 - Bringing Generation With New Load* 38:49 - Why Texas Needs Stability* 40:32 - Final Reflections & CloseResourcesPeople & Organizations* Matt Boms (LinkedIn)* Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance (Website - LinkedIn)* Energy Capital Podcast (LinkedIn - YouTube)* Katie Coleman (LinkedIn)* O’Melveny & Myers LLP (Website - LinkedIn)Related Podcasts by Texas Energy & Power* Who Pays for Texas Grid Growth? - Roundtable Discussion* More Power That’s Faster and Fairer* Where the Grid Goes from Here | Reading and Podcast Picks - Feb. 4, 2026* Another Winter Storm Bears Down on Texas | Reading and Podcast Picks - Jan. 23, 2026Transcript Matt Boms (00:05.198)Today, I’m really excited to be joined by Katie Coleman, managing partner of the Austin office at Olmelvney and Myers. Katie is one of the leading energy regulatory attorneys in Texas. She has more than 15 years of experience representing large industrial energy customers in ERCOT and before the Public Utility Commission of Texas. She’s best known for her work representing groups like the Texas Industrial Energy Consumers, TIEC, and the Texas Association of Manufacturers, TAM.helping shape some of the most important conversations around energy markets and policy in the state. Katie has also been deeply involved in the industry more broadly. She served as president of the Gulf Coast Power Association, and she previously led the state bar of Texas public utility law section. And across the energy community in Texas, she’s widely respected as one of the very best regulatory lawyers in our business. So Katie, thank you so much for making time for us, and thanks for joining the podcast today.Katie Coleman (01:03.726)Absolutely glad to be here.Matt Boms (01:05.558)I wanted to start with a layup and I wanted to ask you to just walk us through how you first got into energy. Like what is your origin story and how did you end up in this business?Katie Coleman (01:15.182)Yes, so I have no qualifications. I have no business doing this job that I’ve now been doing. My bio actually, I need to update it. This is actually the 20th year when I first started in the industry, which I count as when I clerked when I was in law school, which then turned into a permanent job. I spent the summer doing this, finished law school, and then came back in 2006. So it’s been 20 years now.I went to UT undergrad. I was a liberal arts major. I did a small honors program at UT called Plan To, which people at UT are familiar with, but a lot of other people aren’t. But it is just an interdisciplinary liberal arts honors program. So I had no idea what I was going to do. And I did that very cliched thing where I took the LSAT to see how I did

For a century, the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the world’s key energy choke points. But during the past couple of decades, the U.S. relationship to the shipping lane has changed.In this special episode of the Energy Capital Podcast, Josh Rhodes talks with Michael Webber about what the Iran conflict means now, especially for Texas. The U.S. is not as vulnerable to oil shortage as it once was, but greater energy self-sufficiency does not insulate the country from global prices.The U.S. now produces more oil and gas than it did in the 1970s, when another energy crisis rooted in the Middle East rattled the U.S. economy. That leaves the nation less vulnerable from a security perspective.But consumers in Texas are still tied to global markets through pricing, refining constraints, and fuel trade flows. As Webber explains, even if the country has enough energy overall, price spikes abroad can still show up here at the pump, and they can linger.The conversation gets into a few issues that will develop over the coming weeks and months:* Why gasoline and diesel prices may rise with a delay, then fall more slowly than consumers expect.* Why U.S. oil abundance does not fully protect Americans from disruption overseas.* Why Texas benefits, and what’s at risk, from the state’s current energy mix.Rhodes and Webber also stress that resilience covers a range of issues: what resources can be refined, what generation and infrastructure can be built, and how quickly the system can adapt to challenges. That spotlights variables including refining capacity, permitting reform, and the roles of wind, solar, batteries, and electrification in reducing exposure to fuel volatility.The episode explores how Texas fits into a deeply interconnected global energy system, even after the state’s shale revolution.The unresolved question: if the disruption in the Middle East continues, where will the state’s real vulnerabilities start to show?Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 - Iran Conflict & U.S. Exposure* 02:29 - Why Prices May Rise* 03:57 - Self-Sufficient, Still Coupled* 06:07 - Texas Refining Constraints* 08:03 - SPR, Export Bans, and Policy Tools* 10:48 - Renewables, Gas, and Energy Security* 16:35 - Affordability Politics* 19:14 - Permitting Reform & OutroResourcesPeople & Organizations* Texas Energy & Power (Website - LinkedIn - YouTube)* Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn)* IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn)* Michael Webber (LinkedIn)* Webber Energy Group (Website - LinkedIn)* International Energy Agency (Website)* U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Website)Company & Industry News* US gasoline prices soar past $3.75 a gallon as Middle East war rages on* Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed* Goldman Sachs raises Q4 Brent, WTI crude price forecast amid longer Hormuz disruption* Here’s the energy policy we need for the war in IranRelated Podcasts by Energy Capital Podcast* Build Fast or Fall Behind with Michael Webber* Interview with Energy Expert Dr. Michael WebberRelated Posts by Texas Energy & Power* The Growing Importance of Energy Efficiency* Why Are Energy Bills Rising So Fast?TranscriptJoshua Rhodes (00:05.558)Welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. This is a bit of a special edition where we’re going to talk to Dr. Weber again. We’re talking on Friday, March 13th, and we’re really kind of doing a little bit of a current events type take on the energy impacts of the current conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Weber just published an article or an op-ed in the Houston Chronicle where he just talked about the energy implications of what that would mean for the U.S. Joshua Rhodes (00:33.624)So Dr. Michael Weber, welcome back to the Energy Capital Podcast. Michael Webber (00:39.502)Thanks so much. It was great to be here and have another conversation with you. I appreciate you inviting me. Absolutely. Joshua Rhodes (00:43.854)Well, Joshua Rhodes (00:44.234)let’s dive in. You wrote in your op-ed that the energy risks we worried about 20 years ago, like disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, that are actually happening right now, but you argue that the U.S. might not care as much this time around. Why is that? Michael Webber (00:58.51)That’s right. say that first of all, the risks of the Strait of Hormuz have been known since the seventies, but really amplified as a risk in the eighties with the Iran-Iraq-Tinker war that happened in the eighties and is really the main justification for why the US Navy projects so much force there just to keep the shipping lanes open, all that kind of thing. So the risk of the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point for global commerce around oil and refined products and helium and aluminum and other things like fertilizer area, that’s been known. But what has changed is how much we might care. Michael Webber (01:27.648)So 20 years ago, when I studied this for Think Tank doing national security work for the Pentagon, we identified the closure

For a long time, the basic story in U.S. energy was stability. Demand growth had flattened, efficiency was doing more work than most people realized, and expansion was steady.Not anymore.In this week’s conversation, Josh Rhodes talks with Michael Webber about what may be the most important shift now underway in energy: the dramatic growth in electricity demand, in Texas and beyond. Data centers are a big part of the story, but not all of it. Electrification, industrial growth, and population growth are also fueling the need for more energy.In this episode, Webber notes that energy progress moves fastest when markets, policy, and engineering align. That is true for shale development, and it may be true again with the coming growth of the grid.Texas is well-positioned to lead this next stage of energy development — we have a strong energy base, growing demand, and a mix of technologies competing to meet it. Josh and Michael talk through why geothermal power is gaining attention, why nuclear expansion plans feel different this time, and why wind, solar, storage, gas, and transmission remain essential.They also address a problem that is becoming hard to ignore: new load can be built faster than new generation, and new generation can be built faster than transmission. That mismatch is showing up in transformer backlogs, turbine supply constraints, and growing pressure to move much faster than some energy executives are used to.n many cases, the challenge Texas faces is not a lack of energy throughout the year — rather, it’s a shortage of power during a relatively small number of peak hours. That has real implications for cost, reliability, and what kinds of loads and technologies make sense for ERCOT.Tune in to hear Michael and Josh talk through those challenges — and opportunities.Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:03 – Introduction & Michael Webber Background* 01:14 – The Energy Three-Body Problem* 04:16 – Shale Revolution & Forecasting Misses* 08:42 – Webber’s 2029 Energy Predictions* 09:42 – Why Efficiency Still Matters* 13:37 – Gasoline, Natural Gas & Texas Exports* 18:13 – Electrifying the Texas Oil Patch* 19:45 – Why Webber Is Bullish on Geothermal* 23:32 – Nuclear’s New Momentum* 26:27 – The Three-Part Energy Transition* 33:30 – Scarcity, Flexibility & Data Centers* 39:11 – Build Faster, Then Career Advice* 45:15 – Closing & OutroResourcesPeople & Organizations* Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn)* IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn)* Michael Webber (Website - LinkedIn)* Webber Energy Group (Website - LinkedIn)Company & Industry News* US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says* GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog that stretches into 2029* A tour of global geothermal projects in progressBooks & Articles Discussed* Annual Energy Outlook Products - Archive* Energy Policy Act of 2005Related Podcasts by Energy Capital* Interview with Energy Expert Dr. Michael Webber* Drilling for Geothermal Power and Storage with Cindy Taff* More Power that’s Faster and FairerRelated Posts by Texas Energy & Power* Reading & Podcast Picks — March 4, 2025: Data Centers, Nukes, VPPs, and More* The Growing Importance of Energy Efficiency, Reading and Podcast PicksTranscriptJoshua Rhodes (00:03.726)Hey everyone, and welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. I am really excited to have Dr. Michael Weber on to talk about, well, energy. He’s an energy guy, and I’m really excited to talk to him about energy and Texas energy and all kinds of things. Most of you probably know Michael, but just really quickly, he’s got a PhD from mechanical engineering from Stanford. He’s worked at Rand, various clean energy incubators, really been in kind of the energy space for a long time. Joshua Rhodes (00:32.472)But really the kind of the main areas right now that Michael’s he’s a double chaired professor at the University of Texas, which is pretty rare thing. The Sid Richardson chair at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and the Cockrell family chair number 16 in mechanical engineering. He’s a former CTO at Energy Impact Partners, which is a big climate clean tech venture fund and a former chief science and technology officer at Engie, one of the world’s largest energy companies, as well as a founding partner of Ideasmus upon which he and I work together. Joshua Rhodes (01:01.688)So he really sits at the intersection of engineering and policy and commercialization. Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. Dr. Michael Webber (01:10.008)Thanks for having me. Very excited to be part of the conversation today after being a long time listener. Joshua Rhodes (01:14.574)And so you really are kind of like a rare three world energy person. I mean you’ve kind of like gone across the spectrum from engineering to policy and you know commercialization. One of the things that this actually reminded me of and I’m gonna go off script almost immediately is kind of like the three body p

Behind the scenes, every few minutes, the ERCOT system generates tens of thousands of price signals, outage updates, and operational reports that demonstrate and drive the cost and availability of electricity.Most of that data is public. But how can Texans access it?This week, Joshua Rhodes talks with Max Kanter, chief executive officer of GridStatus, about the gap between public data and practical visibility and application, and why that matters in Texas.In this episode, they discuss:* Why public grid data is harder to use than it would seem.* What real-time pricing signals reveal about system stress.* How outage and congestion data shape ERCOT debates.There are more than 70,000 pricing nodes across U.S. energy markets, updating every five minutes. ERCOT alone produces enormous volumes of operational data.Those signals often spotlight stresses on the system before they show up in prices and control rooms.As Texas adds new industrial loads and faces continued risks from extreme weather, more policymakers, analysts, and large customers want to know what’s coming. They’re looking for distress signals.On this week’s episode, Josh and Max tell you where to find them – and what to do with them.Timestamps* 00:06 – Welcome, Max Kanter intro* 02:00 – Computer science, AI shifts* 03:32 – What is GridStatus?* 04:36 – What users see first* 05:31 – Who uses GridStatus today* 06:56 – Tiers, hobbyists, accessibility* 07:52 – AI tools, new builders* 09:47 – Why a business existed* 12:49 – Early demand validated product* 14:18 – From carbon to markets* 16:44 – Data scale, nodal pricing map* 32:20 – Flip script, Rhodes on public roleResourcesGuest & Company• Max Kanter - LinkedIn • Grid Status - LinkedInCompany & Industry News• The power grid is hard to understand. This startup is trying to help. • Why We Invested in Grid Status Related Podcasts by TEAP• The New Rules Behind ERCOT Prices with Andrew Reimers • Who Pays for Texas Grid Growth? - Roundtable Discussion• Texas’ Load Growth Challenges – And Opportunities, with Arushi Sharma FrankEnergy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.TranscriptJoshua Rhodes (00:05.778)everyone, and welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. I am really excited to have Max Cantor, CEO of GridStatus on today to just talk about data, all the data that are coming off the grid and everything like that. If you’re steeped in grids, you’ve probably heard of GridStatus, you’ve probably seen at least a screenshot of dashboards and things like that floating around social media. But one of the things I wanted to bring to this podcast was to kind of dig a little bit deeper into some of the more technical side of things. And I promised all Joshua Rhodes (00:35.278)I’d be listeners that I wouldn’t completely bore you to tears with data, but we are going to talk about it a little bit because it is so important. So we have Max Cantor on. has a bachelor’s and a master’s of computer science from MIT. And I don’t usually name check theses, but this one actually caught my eye. So his master’s thesis was the data science machine emulating human intelligence in data science endeavors, which sounds like a harbinger of basically AI. We’ll get back to that here in a bit. Joshua Rhodes (01:05.294)He started off as CEO and co-founder of Feature Labs, which was acquired by Alteryx in 2019. At that point, was the VP of Engineering at Alteryx for the next couple of years before going back to MIT as a visiting scholar in the Data to AI lab, where at that time when he was at MIT, launched Grid Status in August of 2022. And the tagline, or at least the one that’s on his socials is, the future of the electric grid runs on data and AI. Grid Status provides Joshua Rhodes (01:34.562)data and insights for the understanding, investing and operating of the electrical grid. And our goal is to be the most trusted source for whatever is happening on the grid. Max Kanner, welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. Max Kanter (01:47.522)Thank you, Joshua. Happy to be here. Joshua Rhodes (01:49.452)Yeah, I should probably say full disclosure, I’m actually a client as well. So I have a subscription to GridStatus. So thank you for making it so easy to get all of these data. Max Kanter (01:58.456)Yeah, that was the goal from the very beginning. Joshua Rhodes (02:00.46)Yeah, no, I think it’s worked out quite a bit. It’s much easier. I wanted to actually immediately kind of go off script. Your bachelor’s and master’s are in computer science. Do you have a feel for what computer science means today, kind of in this age of AI? How has it changed since you were there? Max Kanter (02:16.312)Computer science as an academic field is younger than many, right? So things like biology or physics, right? Computer science, I’d have to double check, but I think it’s probably a phrase that has only formally been studied for less than a hundred years. And so it’s come a long way in just that time from something minor to one of the hottest topics. One

Texas’s new era of electricity demand is forcing policymakers to walk an unprecedented tightrope.The state has to keep the lights on – and it has to make sure that Texans can afford to do so..Massive load growth from data centers, population, and electrification is teeing up existential questions for the ERCOT grid. How do we build what we need without overbuilding? And how do we avoid burdening households with costs that businesses and large users should be paying?Those questions framed our latest Energy Capital roundtable with Matt Boms and Dr. Joshua Rhodes.Why bills are rising faster than people expectUtilities across the country are planning massive infrastructure investments over the next several years, and Texas is leading the way. Between new generation, transmission, and distribution upgrades, the price tag for this growth is substantial.Texas has covered recent load growth primarily with a mix of solar, wind and batteries. Some state leaders have prioritized new gas plants as well, though capital costs for these facilities has more than doubled in some cases, even as wait lists for turbines have grown.At the same time, transmission and distribution companies are filing rate cases tied to resiliency, reliability, and growth. Those investments often show up in rates years before customers see any economic benefit from load growth.What’s driving costs matters more than everAs large new loads, especially data centers, request connection to the grid, the question of who pays becomes unavoidable.The basic principle is simple: if infrastructure is built for a specific customer, that customer should bear the cost. If infrastructure provides broad system value, then costs should be shared. Problems arise when all customers pay for expensive upgrades to cover loads that may be temporary or never fully materialize – especially with transformers, substations, and core hardware now costing multiples more than they did just a few years ago.Without guardrails, Texas risks building expensive infrastructure that everyone pays for, even if demand disappears for the energy that infrastructure is meant to support.Underused toolsThere are ways to blunt this load-growth pressure.Distributed energy resources (i.e. community power or local power), demand response, and energy waste reduction can reduce peak demand and delay or avoid costly grid upgrades. In many cases, these solutions are faster and cheaper than traditional investments in poles and wires.Analyses show that even modest levels of community power can save ratepayers meaningful amounts of money by deferring transmission and distribution spending while also delivering wholesale market value.One way or another, decisions made in upcoming utility rate cases will lock in costs for decades.Grid growth is real. Infrastructure costs are rising. Ignoring either won’t protect customers. The state must align costs with the parties driving them, wringing out value from lower-cost flexibility strategies before committing to the most expensive build-outs.If Texas effectively walks the line between affordability and reliability, this period of load growth can strengthen the grid without punishing Texans who rely on it.Timestamps* 00:06 – Rising Costs, Rising Stakes* 01:17 – Load Growth and System Pressure* 03:16 – Gas Dependence and Fuel Risk* 06:21 – New Generation Costs and Competition* 07:05 – Oncor Rate Case, $830M Request* 08:27 – Who Pays, ERCOT vs Other States* 12:08 – Driveway vs Highway Cost Test* 15:33 – Capital Bias and Regulatory Incentives* 18:49 – Avoiding Rate Shock, Role of DERs* 24:07 – Higher Prices, Solar Payback Effect* 34:12 – Missing Price Signals in Distribution* 37:05 – Final Takeaways and WrapResourcesHosts Platforms* Texas Energy & Power - LinkedIn, Twitter (X), and Bluesky* Micalah Spenrath - LinkedIn* Matt Boms - LinkedIn * Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance (TAEBA) - LinkedIn* Joshua Rhodes - LinkedIn * IdeaSmiths * Webber Energy Group, UT Austin Company & Industry News* Electricity rate hikes slash commercial solar payback periods by 33%, says Wood Mackenzie (pv magazine USA) * Rising retail rates are accelerating commercial solar payback periods (Wood Mackenzie) * The Value of Integrating Distributed Energy Resources in Texas (Advanced Energy United) * TAEBA news page, DER study links (Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance)* CenterPoint raises 10-year spending plan to $65.5B (Reuters)Related Podcasts by TEAP* More Power that’s Faster and Fairer, Roundtable Discussion (TEAP) * Why Are Utility Bills Rising So Fast? (Powerlines) (TEAP) * Distributed Energy Resources and all-of-the-above energy solutions (TEAP)* Texas’ Load Growth Challenges, And Opportunities (TEAP) * Texas Needs a Vision for Customer-Side Solutions (TEAP) * Where the Grid Goes from Here, Reading and Podcast Picks (TEAP)Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.TranscriptMicalah Spenrath (00:05.55)Hi everybody and welcome back to the Energy Capital podcas

Texas keeps adding load, adding generation, and adding complexity. But attracting the next wave of investment often comes down to a crucial question:How does ERCOT use market forces – especially signals that determine where energy prices are set – to boost reliability on the grid?In this episode, Josh Rhodes sits down with Andrew Reimers to pull back the curtain on the machinery most people never see, including operating reserves, scarcity pricing, and what changed when ERCOT launched real-time co-optimization in December.The quiet lever: reserves, scarcity, and incentivesAndrew breaks down the pricing story to a simple idea: when electricity on the grid gets tight, the value of the next increment of reliability rises fast, which should signal to investors that they can make money by building more generation in Texas. ERCOT tries to reflect that through scarcity pricing and its operating reserve demand curve.The hard part is running the grid in a way that ensures affordable, reliable electricity, and that doesn’t smother the very price signal that’s supposed to attract new capacity to the market.“Carrying this large volume of operating reserves… you can suppress the prices… disincentivizing investments in new generation.”That tension – lowering the risk of outages today vs. maintaining investable signals for tomorrow – drives the entire market design debate in Texas.Reliability policy is also investment policy.What changed on Dec. 5, and why it mattersIn this episode, Josh and Andrew discuss ERCOT’s move to real-time co-optimization late last year and what it means for the ways reserves are procured and obligations show up in real time. That can change outcomes, even if the physical grid looks the same.The conversation covers:* Why pricing can look wrong even when the grid is fine.* How rule changes can create unexpected incentives.* Why these mechanics matter more as demand rises and the resource mix shifts.Batteries, forecasting, and the value of looking aheadJosh and Andrew also show how this all connects to batteries.Andrew frames batteries as a question of timing and trade-offs, not just megawatts.“Batteries… it’s opportunity cost. If I discharge now, I can’t necessarily discharge in the future.”If ERCOT’s market structure encourages operators to look ahead even an hour or two, the state will end up valuing flexibility more intelligently – and customers will avoid the excess cost of simply buying more reserves to cover forecasting errors.Final ThoughtsThis episode shows that the Texas grid is not just about steel in the ground. It’s also a unique, and largely successful, experiment in how free-market policy – with smart guardrails – can translate individual investment into reliability for all.If you want to understand why ERCOT decisions spark so much argument, and why market design tweaks can have outsized consequences, this conversation is a great map.If this prompted questions for you, drop one in the comments. And if you know someone who cares about ERCOT prices but hates reading market docs, send them this episode.Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps:* 00:05 – Episode Setup, Why This Matters* 01:09 – Andrew Reimers, Role of the IMM* 05:03 – Operating Reserves and Market Design* 09:55 – Real-Time Co-Optimization Explained* 14:30 – ERCOT vs Other Markets* 16:42 – Post-Uri Conservatism and Price Signals* 19:12 – Scarcity Pricing and Investment Incentives* 23:50 – DRRS, RUC, and Reliability Tradeoffs* 28:26 – NPRR 1309 vs 1310 Debate* 31:02 – Load Forecasting and “Officer Letter Load”* 36:55 – Solar, Wind, and Shifting Peak Dynamics* 40:45 – Batteries and Multi-Interval Markets* 49:15 – Out-of-Market Actions and Hidden Impacts* 53:59 – Final Takeaways and Wrap-UpResources:Guest & Company* Andrew Reimers (LinkedIn) * Potomac Economics (Website - LinkedIn) * Potomac Economics - ERCOT IMM overview* Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn) * Webber Energy Group (LinkedIn) * IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn) Company & Industry News* ERCOT NPRR 1310, IMM comments (Feb 3, 2026) * S&P Global, ERCOT ancillary services rule changes and IMM perspective (Aug 6, 2025) * RTO Insider, ERCOT and IMM ancillary services study (Jul 1, 2024) * Potomac Economics, 2024 State of the Market Report for ERCOT (PDF) Books & Articles Discussed* Ancillary Service Study, Initial IMM Results (Aug 28, 2024) TranscriptJosh Rhodes (00:05.174)Right now, Texas is planning for rapid load growth while still catching up on transmission and interconnection constraints. The challenge is not whether demand is coming, but how fast the system can realistically respond. Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast, where we cover the decisions, data, and debates shaping the Texas grid and the energy future. I’m your host, Joshua Rhodes. Today’s guest is Andrew Reimers. He’s deputy director of ERCOT at Potomac Economics, the independent market monitor. Andrew is an expert on grid planning, Josh Rhodes (00:35.234)load growth, and how infra

Every time a winter storm hits, Texans run through a mental checklist: gather more blankets, drip the pipes, and hope the grid holds up. Kurt Heim, Vice President of Environmental Advancement at Daikin Comfort Technologies North America Inc., understands why that anxiety stuck after 2021’s devastating Winter Storm Uri.But this reliability and affordability problem has a surprisingly accessible solution.In this episode, Kurt and host Matt Boms zero in on a big part of winter peak demand that doesn’t get enough attention: electric resistance heating, especially in older houses and apartments. These systems use excessive amounts of electricity to heat homes in one of the least efficient ways possible.It’s an easy issue to miss … until you run the math for millions of housing units.As Matt notes, if Texas has to serve roughly 12 gigawatts of resistance heating load during extreme cold temperatures, that represents real low-hanging fruit. Addressing it would fortify the grid in a way that helps Texans who struggle to afford their power bills:“What it would do is pay some really good dividends around affordability.”Kurt also talks about “flattening the peaks” so Texas gets more value out of infrastructure that Texans already paid for, instead of constantly adding fixed costs that show up in rates.That framing lands even harder in light of ERCOT’s booming load forecasts: if Texas is serious about serving this growth, we should be just as serious about reducing waste, especially during the most extreme weather.Policy levers that are already movingDiving into the weeds, Kurt discusses updates to the technical reference manual that sets industry calculations for energy efficiency. The updates will make it easier for new construction and multifamily development to have more efficient systems. New construction is only part of the story—improving existing structures will take more work. But as this episode makes clear, such investments will pay off in greater reliability and affordability.Final ThoughtsTexas can chase growth and reliability at the same time. But we can’t afford to do so with outdated systems that exacerbate grid weaknesses and punish the people least able to absorb their bills.The grid has a waste problem. Texas needs to deal with it. The best place to start is with a readily accessible solution that addresses a clear problem, lowers bills, frees up capacity when Texas needs it the most, and allows the grid to keep growing.If this sparked a question for you, drop it in the comments. And if you know someone who still thinks winter reliability is only about power plants, send them this episode.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timeline:* 00:00 – Winter peaks, why it matters* 01:20 – Kurt Heim, background* 02:59 – Winter anxiety, resilience mindset* 05:08 – The resistance heating problem* 07:08 – How big these loads get* 09:21 – Heat pumps, how they work* 13:11 – Climate tech, variable speed* 15:10 – Efficiency math, 1x vs 2–4x* 16:50 – Economics, bills and adoption* 18:57 – ACEEE study, scale of savings* 26:58 – What blocks heat pump adoption* 29:05 – Codes, standards, and design basis* 35:30 – Incentives and contractor training* 37:53 – Political will, signs of progressResources:Guest & Company* Kurt Heim - LinkedIn * Daikin Comfort - LinkedIn * Matt Boms - LinkedIn* Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance - LinkedInBooks & Articles Discussed* Transforming Texas: How Heat Pumps Can Replace Electric Resistance Heat, Reducing Costs and Winter Power Peaks * Quantifying the impact of residential space heating electrification on the Texas electric grid* Our Homes Aren’t Ready for Extreme Cold and Power OutagesRelated Posts by Texas Energy and Power* Texas Got Tested, Grid Stayed Upright* 2022 Cold Snap Shows Resistance is Futile* ERCOT calculates a 1:7 chance of outages in December; could be worse in January and February* ERCOT Still Doesn’t Understand Winter Demand* NRG’s Gigawatt VPP in Texas with Travis KavullaExternal References and Tools* Energy Efficiency at the PUCT* Texas Climate Zones by County * State Energy Conservation Office Programs TranscriptMatt Boms (00:05.004)Why does Texas continue to see winter peak demand spike so sharply during cold weather, even years after winter storm Uri put winter reliability front and center? Welcome back to the Energy Capital podcast. I’m Matt Bombs. And today we have a really special guest and someone I’ve been excited to talk with for a very long time. Joining me is Kurt Heim. Kurt is vice president of environmental advancement. Matt Boms (00:32.662)and Texas Government Affairs at Deichen Comfort Technologies, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of high efficiency heating and cooling systems. Kurt has spent more than two decades in the HVAC industry, including leading the development of Deichen’s massive manufacturing facility in Waller, Texas, one of the largest HVAC plants in the world. He works at the intersection of technology, manufact

Texas just got another winter gut-check—not on the level of the deadly 2021 freeze, but still with enough ice, outages, and anxious headlines to remind everyone how fast confidence can evaporate.In this episode, Matt Boms and Josh Rhodes unpack what they saw in real time. The biggest takeaways are simple: a lot has improved, and some of the hardest problems are still sitting right in the open.“There were a lot of questions… what has changed since Winter Storm Uri [in 2021]. The first part of that is absolutely the winterization efforts.”“Texas deserves a lot of credit for how far it’s come since then.”The first misunderstanding, grid vs. everything elseA chunk of what people experience as grid failure is not the bulk power system at all, but rather the distribution layer: the poles and wires in neighborhoods, tree limbs, cars that skid into poles, and ice that turns ordinary infrastructure into a brittle mess.That distinction matters:even if ERCOT grid is in decent shape, plenty of Texans could still be in the dark because local equipment gets wrecked.What actually got better since UriThe hosts give credit where it is due: far more power plants have been winterized since 2021.At the same time, their conversation keeps circling back to one big concern: natural gas.Texas leans hard on gas in peak winter conditions, so energy insiders end up asking some version of: Will the gas system hold up when demand spikes and the weather is ugly?That question is not ideological. It is operational.The quiet headline: new capacity, new shapeOver the last five years, Texas added a lot of generation, and a big share of it is solar plus batteries. That changes the daily rhythm of how ERCOT meets load.And it changes the conversation during winter events, too.Renewables and batteries strengthened the grid last weekend and helped shield Texans from theprice spikes that other regions saw. While batteries do not solve winter, this storm shows how they provide essential electricity when conditions are tight and every megawatt matters.Josh also gets specific about how people should think about storage—not as a magical substitute for everything else, but as a tool that can provide particular services at particular moments.The public narrative still lags the realityCoverage of extreme weather events often flattens into a single question: Did the grid fail?That framing misses the more interesting, more actionable questions:* What failed: generation, transmission, distribution, fuel supply, or communications?* What was close to failing, but did not?* What investments best reduce the next risk Texas will face?As the panelists note, there was some tightness and scarcity on the grid last weekend. It was not nothing. But it was nothing like the challenge we faced in 2021.The next wave is not weather, it is loadWinter events are the stress tests everyone feels, but load growth is the slow-motion pressure that can change everything, including market behavior and planning decisions.The hosts touch on the reality that even partial progress matters. That is not a victory lap, it is just what real system improvement looks like.As they note, Texas needs to focus on reliability math, not vibes. What policies move the needle, and what trade-offs Texans are making when we choose between speed, cost, and resilience?The ERCOT grid is getting stronger. Winterization has helped. The resource mix is changing quickly. Batteries are becoming real operational players. Gas still matters.But distribution outages still hurt. And load growth is coming, ready or not.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps:* 00:05 – Winter Storm Fern, system performance* 01:56 – Uri comparisons and media anxiety* 03:17 – ERCOT forecasts, winterization progress* 05:21 – Batteries, frequency and morning ramp* 07:30 – Natural gas risk and Permian freeze-offs* 11:56 – Resistance heating and winter peak demand* 16:00 – Diversified grid, solar, wind, gas together* 24:33 – DOE order, demand response, what’s next This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com/subscribe

In two weeks, Texas will observe the five-year anniversary of Winter Storm Uri — the devastating 2021 freeze that drove electricity demand to unprecedented heights, froze gas lines and plants, and triggered a blackout that darkened nearly half of the state.The anniversary will come just days after the latest arctic blast hits Texas; this coming weekend, people across the state will likely see lows well below freezing, as well as snow and freezing rain.It’s meaningful that state leaders expressed confidence this week that “there will be sufficient generation to meet demand this winter,” thanks both to five years of weatherization efforts and burgeoning supplies of renewables, especially batteries.But as this week’s Energy Capital Podcast shows, the defining grid issue in Texas is not simply whether it will survive the next extreme weather event.It’s whether Texas can serve skyrocketing load growth without once again facing the systemic risk that Winter Storm Uri exposed.Former Texas PUC Commissioner Will McAdams joined The Energy Capital Podcast to reflect on what really went wrong five years ago, how Texas legislators and regulators responded, and what has to go right next.As McAdams notes, Uri was not a single failure — it was a cascading series of failures.“There were a number of events that occurred that stacked on top of each other. You had generation outages, you had frequency issues, you had other generators tripping offline as they tried to arrest the frequency freefall of the system. And then that led to deep load shed, situations where power was curtailed to the entire energy system. So it was a series of dominoes that ended up falling.”In the years since, the state has bolstered protections against extreme weather. ERCOT now conducts regular winterization inspections of generators, McAdams said, and the Public Utility Commission has authority to hold generators accountable.“ERCOT has hired hundreds of inspectors that go out every season to inspect to those standards… the PUC can fine [generators] up to a million dollars per day per incident where they’re out of compliance.”The state’s booming battery storage industry has also changed the game. In 2021, Texas had less than one gigawatt of batteries on the grid. Today, it has more than ten times that. McAdams said that dispatchable battery capacity can transform the way the system responds to a Uri-like emergency:“If we had had the batteries that we have today during Winter Storm Uri, those batteries would have instantaneously reacted. They would have arrested the frequency freefall, stabilized the system, and bought time for other generation to respond. That doesn’t mean it solves everything, but it changes the dynamics dramatically.”That helps ERCOT navigate extreme weather — and accommodate massive load growth.ERCOT’s large load interconnection queue grew nearly 300% last year, with large industrial and data-center loads seeking service at a scale ERCOT has never managed before. But just as he expressed confidence about the state of the grid heading into next winter storm, McAdams said the state is well-positioned to serve the economic growth that’s coming.“This feels unprecedented because of the size and speed, but Texas has gone through major load growth before. After World War II, with the buildout of air conditioning, we saw huge increases in demand. And we innovated our way through that. That’s what we’ve always done.”Five years after Uri, Texas is more prepared than it was in 2021. The grid is bigger, stronger, faster, and safer. That will matter this weekend, helping keep the lights on when the cold temperatures arrive. It will matter even more down the road, as large loads come to Texas. Please subscribe and share.Timestamps:* 00:05 – Intro, Will McAdams* 01:19 – PUC path, lessons from Uri* 05:20 – Weatherization rules, what changed* 07:33 – Demand growth, defining decade* 09:38 – Building generation, lead times* 11:45 – Why bills rose, T&D costs* 16:32 – DERs and new grid tech* 20:50 – ADER, dispatch at distribution level* 22:38 – Flexible demand, smart load shifting* 26:51 – Deferring wires, market incentives* 30:31 – Batteries, volatility, price impacts* 32:41 – Transmission vs DERs, politics* 35:17 – What Will is doing next* 38:52 – Final thanks and outroResources:Host, Guest & Company* Matt Boms - LinkedIn* Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance - LinkedIn* Will McAdams - Linkedin * McAdams Energy Group - LinkedIn* Texas Lobby StrategiesBooks, Articles, Reports Discussed* The Value of Integrating Distributed Energy Resources in Texas - TAEBA* Aggregate Distributed Energy Resource (ADER) Pilot Project* Winter Weather Readiness - ERCOT Related Podcasts • All Energy Capital Podcasts • Flexibility Driving Reliability and Affordability with Matt Boms• How AI Data Centers Can Go From Villain to Hero with Varun SivaramTranscript: Matt Boms (00:00.0)Hi everyone, I’m really excited to welcome Will McAdams to the podcast today. This is a real

Texas is not short on energy.Texas is short on time.New load is arriving faster than the grid can plan, permit, and build, raising a question that will shape our state’s future: can Texas grow without sacrificing reliability or pushing costs onto the wrong people?That was the backdrop for our first Energy Capital roundtable with Matt Boms, Joshua Rhodes, and Micalah Spenrath.The Defining Story of 2025When we talked about the biggest energy story of 2025, everything circled back to load. Not just more demand, but uncertain demand.Planning gets harder when projections keep shifting. Transmission, interconnection, and long-term investments all depend on forecasts, and those forecasts suddenly feel less stable.And yes, data centers are at the center of it.As Josh put it, you almost cannot talk about energy anymore without talking about data centers. They are reshaping how fast demand shows up and where reliability pressure lands.Markets still matter, but speed does tooTexas remains an energy-only market. Resources still need to compete on cost, reliability, and performance.But markets only work if the system underneath them can move fast enough.ERCOT and the PUC are working to plan for the future, but compressed timelines make responsible planning harder. Speed is no longer just a project challenge. It is becoming a grid constraint.What constraints unlockThis is about more than just generation — ERCOT’s transmission system also is racing to keep up with rising load. Given such constraints, Texas needs to embrace fast, close-to-home energy strategies, including:* Distributed energy resources (DERs)* Demand response* Backup power* Energy waste reductionAs Josh noted, constraints force innovation. When the old approach cannot keep pace, the economics for flexibility get much clearer.What we’re watching in 2026Looking ahead, Micalah, Matt, and Josh kept returning to a few basic themes:* Clean, firm power that can scale* Backup power and resilience* The untapped potential of DERsThese policy solutions sit at the intersection of reliability, affordability, and speed, which is exactly where the grid debate is heading.Texas is going to build a lot of infrastructure in coming years. That brings real benefits, especially to rural communities, but also real impacts.Micalah framed it simply: this is about balance and fairness. Growth works best when communities understand the trade-offs — and they trust that costs and benefits are being shared responsibly.Closing ThoughtsTexas is entering a build-fast era where speed itself becomes a grid resource.That does not mean cutting corners. It means prioritizing the highest-value infrastructure, being honest about who pays for what, and using every available tool to maintain reliability and affordability.Moving forward, we’ll keep these conversations grounded, curious, and practical. If you have thoughts on what Texas should prioritize next, jump into the comments.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps:* 00:06 – Welcome, roundtable kickoff* 01:49 – Micalah origin story, policy path* 03:54 – Josh background, technical roots* 04:08 – Host reactions, early framing* 13:19 – SB 6, PUC, building infrastructure* 15:27 – Data centers, speed-to-power reality* 18:58 – Siting, community benefits and burdens* 20:37 – Pushback, bad actors, headlines* 22:03 – AI hype, narratives, who shapes perception* 24:12 – ADER, DER potential, batteriesResources:Guest & Company* Matt Boms - LinkedIn * Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance - LinkedIn * Joshua Rhodes - LinkedIn* Webber Energy Group* IdeaSmiths* Micalah Spenrath - LinkedInTranscript:Matt Boms (00:05.966)Hi everybody, welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. I’m Matt Boms and I’m here for our first round table today with Dr. Josh Rhodes and Michaelis Benrath. I’m gonna ask each of you to introduce themselves and then we’ll get started. Josh, you wanna kick us off? Joshua Rhodes (00:22.894)Sure, sounds good. Hey everybody, my name is Joshua Rhodes. I wear a bunch of different hats. I’m research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin where I study electricity system, the grid, just energy writ large, CTO of Ideasmus, as well as commissioner for Austin Energy. And yeah, just excited to be here. Micalah Spenrath (00:40.0)All right. Hi, everybody. My name is Micalah Spenrath. I also wear lot of hats, but my main and biggest hat is that I am a Deputy Director of Policy and Energy at the Houston Advanced Research Center, where I spearhead our legislative and regulatory engagement, specializing in energy policy. So happy to be here. Matt Boms (00:56.824)Well, I’m really excited to be with you both. And we’ve been tasked with this enormous responsibility of co-hosting this podcast. And I’m happy that we all have the chance today to talk. And I want to get into each of your backgrounds and ask each of you to just explain kind of how you got into the energy world, what inspired you to get into this topic and kind of how did

This episode is a little different. As I wrote on Friday: this is both a transition and an expansion. Several folks will be stepping up to use this platform and I couldn’t be more excited to hear what comes next.A platform, now with more places to standArchimedes said: “Give me a place to stand and I will move the Earth.” This podcast will become a platform for more people to stand.The podcast is moving into a multi-host format, and one of those new voices is Matt Boms, Executive Director of the Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance (TAEBA). Matt has been a leader on some of the most important energy work in Texas: distributed energy resources, affordability, energy waste reduction, grid flexibility, and much more.How I got “bit by the bug”Matt asked how I got into energy. The real answer is, slowly and then all at once.My early work in energy policy was at the Texas Legislature, in a stretch (2005 to 2009) when a lot was happening and the instincts to build and expand were strong. That period mattered because it shaped a belief I still hold today: Texas works best when we put pragmatism above ideology. Texas is a place to build and do big things.The next frontier is the grid edgeOne of the big themes in this conversation with Matt is that the “cheap electrons” story is true on the generation side, but bills keep climbing because transmission and distribution costs keep rising.So if we’re serious about affordability, we have to talk about the distribution grid, and the tools that can help us defer (or avoid) some of the costs associated with building out the grid. We’re still going to spend a lot but can we avoid some of it?That’s where distributed energy resources (DERs) come in, and where Texas has a real opportunity to lead.Matt and TAEBA recently looked at what DERs could do in Oncor’s territory. The numbers are big, but here’s the one that sticks: about $279 per family per year in savings. If you want a sense of how big a difference that would make for many Texans, check out my discussion with Margo Weisz of the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute:There are two core value buckets behind these savings:* Wholesale market value (DERs competing through aggregation, the work ERCOT is already moving through)* Transmission and distribution deferral or avoidance (often the larger, currently under-valued piece)If we get the policy design right, DERs can help lower system costs, enable load growth, and reduce the pressure that shows up on people’s bills.Final ThoughtsIf you’ve been listening for a while, let the new team (more announcements on that soon) know what topics you want them to cover next. The next chapter is going to be great. I can’t wait to listen!Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 02:30 – Matt asks his first question!* 04:00 – Doug’s first energy experiences* 05:30 – * Beginner’s mind ** 07:00 – Politicization of energy, what brings us together, * 10:00 – The need to look for similarities first* 14:00 – How do we meet Texas’ rapid demand growth? (Here’s the slide I was referring to:)* 16:00 – How do we continue to grow the economy and electric demand?* 18:00 – Distributed energy resources * 20:00 – Matt’s work on demand side * 23:00 – Distributed batteries can last a lot longer than an hour or two!* 25:00 – The TAEBA study showing $2,000 savings per family in DFW from DERs. More on T&D cost avoidance and deferral here:* 29:00 – The potential for Texas leadership* 32:00 – What does Matt want to cover next?* 32:00 – The under-discussed part of the Texas Energy Fund: the Texas Backup Power Package Program for critical facilities* 36:00 – Matt’s thank you, Doug’s excitement to stop talking and start listening!ResourcesGuest & Company* Matt Boms - LinkedIn* Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance (TAEBA) - LinkedInCompany & Industry News* The Value of Integrating Distributed Energy Resources in Texas’ Oncor Territory* New Study Finds Oncor Customers Could Save $8.5 Billion With DERs* Texas Energy Fund, Backup Power Package ProgramTranscriptDoug Lewin (00:04.526)Welcome back to the Energy Capital podcast. I’m your host, Doug Lewin. Today’s episode is a little different. The platform is expanding into a multi-host format. I’m really excited about these changes. I cannot wait to be a listener to this podcast and hear where it’s going. I’ve been working with your new hosts and there are several on the issues and topics and speakers they’re going to be inviting and I could not be more excited. Doug Lewin (00:33.504)about where this is gonna go. I put out a post this morning at the Texas Energy and Power newsletter called It’s a Transition and an Expansion. And that is exactly what it is. Change can be hard, but change can also be really good. And this is an opportunity for a lot of folks to use the platform that I have helped to build. There’s a famous quote from Archimedes where he says, give me a place to stand and I’ll move the earth. Doug Lewin (01:

Everyone’s talking about the cost of power lately. But the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute has been studying, talking, writing, and working to do something about it, for over a decade. In recent research, TEPRI found that 65 percent of low and moderate income Texans are cutting back on essential energy use, often turning off AC in extreme heat. But their demand reductions aren’t necessarily saving them much money or supporting the grid. Affordability is now a very high salience issue and there’s no one better to help us understand than TEPRI Executive Director, Margo Weisz. She talked about energy burden and affordability in Texas and the clearest paths to ratepayer relief.TEPRI’s latest research shows bills increasing sharply over the last five years and again in the next five years: TEPRI Releases ERCOT Electricity Affordability Outlook: Forecasting Residential Electricity Prices and Burdens (2025-2030)Energy burden is rising sharplyEnergy burden is the share of income spent on electricity. In Texas:* ~4.5 million households are low or moderate income.* Their average electricity burden for a low income Texan is nearing 7% — that is, they pay 7% of their income for their power costs alone — and expected to be 9% by 2030.* TEPRI’s modeling shows about a 29 percent increase in the cost of power over the last five years, with another 29 percent projected for the next 5 years.* The biggest increases are coming from transmission and distribution utilities.Wages are not keeping pace, leaving an average affordability gap of roughly $850 per year.Because of this, households are taking risky steps — or getting shut offAs TEPRI’s survey shows, they are turning off or limiting AC in dangerous heat, skipping essentials to pay the bill, and accumulating arrears until shutoff notices arrive. And 12% were actually shut off. But Texas does not track disconnects so we don’t know if this survey matches actual shut-offs.These actions point to system-level strain. They increase health risks and make reconnection more expensive for everyone.Efficiency and distributed energy are long term solutionsEfficiency is the fastest, cheapest way to cut bills and peak demand. Weatherization and efficient HVAC could reduce load and permanently lower costs for the households who feel the most pain.Distributed energy goes one step further. Community solar, batteries, and virtual power plants at homes and apartments can lower bills, reduce peak load and improve resilience. Final ThoughtsEnergy burden is the lived reality of the Texas grid. Millions of Texans are paying nearly 9 percent of their income for electricity, and many are already taking unsafe steps to stay connected.But we have real options. Smarter enrollment for bill help. Scalable efficiency. Community solar and virtual power plants that lower costs and support ERCOT.If this work matters to you, share it with someone who cares about Texas energy, and consider subscribing so we can keep tracking what works and where Texas can lead.Timestamps* 00:00 – Intro and why energy burden matters* 02:00 – Margo’s background and TEPRI’s mission* 04:00 – “energy limiting behaviors” often aren’t saving much money* 05:00 – Community Voices Energy Survey and behaviors* 06:30 – How Bandera Electric Co-op is helping their customers* 08:30 – Texas does not track disconnect data* 10:00 – “Sexy energy efficiency” and heat pumps; the split incentive problem* 12:00 – TEPRI’s approach to applied research* 13:30 – Defining and measuring energy burden* 17:00 – the potential for energy abundance and what that means for low-income Texans * 19:00 – Texas rates are lower but rising faster than the national average. Why?* 22:00 – How do we allocate costs for socialized grid upgrades and storm recovery? (SB 6 implementation)* 27:00 – What’s going to happen to bills in the next 5 years?* 30:00 – Where some downward pressure for prices could come from* 32:00 – What do we do about all this?* 35:00 – Bill assistance and the future of LIHEAP* 36:00 – Scaling efficiency and demand response in Texas* 39:00 – Virtual power plants in low-income communities* 41:00 – Enlightened self interest: helping those in need helps everyone* 43:00 – Margo’s closing thoughtsResourcesGuest & Company* Margo Weisz – LinkedIn* Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute (TEPRI) - LinkedIn Company & Industry News* TEPRI New Report: “ERCOT Electricity Forecast Outlook”* TEPRI Receives Outstanding Non-Profit Award at Texas Energy Summit* TEPRI 10-Year Anniversary Celebration and Future of Energy in Texas * Community Voices Energy Survey* E4-TX Geo-Eligibility Tool* Low Income Energy Assistance Program on TX System Benefits ChargeRelated Podcasts by Doug* Why Your Utility Bill Keeps Rising YouTube* Creating a Distributed Battery Network with Zach Dell YouTube* How Data Centers Can Strengthen the Texas Grid with Astrid Atkinson YouTubeRelated Substack Posts by Doug* The Affordability Crisis Deepens: Reading & Podcast Picks, August 31, 202

Thanksgiving Week RepostThis episode originally aired in June 2024. We’re resurfacing it because the core idea discussed here were timely then and even more timely now.We’ve also refreshed the audio, with improved mixing and mastering for a clearer, smoother listen.Crusoe has scaled dramatically since this conversation, including major new funding and new projects in Texas. With so much energy news focused on problems, it felt right this week to highlight solutions in action.When most people see flares in the Permian, they wonder why all that energy is being wasted. Crusoe’s co-founders figured out how to put that wasted energy to good use. They started with cryptocurrency mining and have steadily moved to AI data centers. Over the last few years, they have found themselves perfectly positioned to grow as the AI boom took hold. They’ve recently completed the 8th building at Stargate in Abilene for Open AI and Oracle. They’re also building facilities for Google near Amarillo. In this conversation from May 2024, Crusoe Co-Founder, President, and COO Cully Cavness and I talked about the rapidly growing size of data centers, the flexibility of different kinds of data centers, and how large loads can increase grid reliability. This was one of the earlier podcasts on these topics and I think it holds up really well. For those looking for more on the topic, here are some other Energy Capital Podcasts covering similar ground:What Has Changed Since ThenWhen this episode first aired in mid-2024, Crusoe was already shifting from “flare mitigation plus computing” to a broader energy-first AI infrastructure model.In the time since:* Crusoe has become one of the most aggressive builders of AI data centers in the country. It is now described as an “AI factory company” with a vertically integrated cloud platform built around stranded and low-cost energy.* Abilene, Texas moved from concept to centerpiece. Crusoe is building a 1.2 gigawatt data center at the Lancium Clean Campus outside Abilene — Stargate — as the first phase of a planned 5 GW campus. * The company’s capital and pipeline exploded. Since 2024, Crusoe has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to scale “clean energy data centers,” then a further $1.3 billion in Series E financing, bringing total funding close to $4 billion and valuing the company around $10 billion.In other words, the approach Cully describes in this episode has scaled — rapidly. Why The Core Idea Still Matters For TexasThe heart of the episode is simple:* Methane mitigation is still some of the lowest-hanging fruit in climate policy. Crusoe’s digital flare mitigation aims for 99 percent plus combustion efficiency, cutting the climate impact of flaring while turning waste into power.* Curtailment and congestion are still big problems in West Texas. A “go to the energy” model lets data centers soak up low-priced or stranded wind and solar instead of forcing renewable operators to shut down when prices go negative.* AI loads can be designed to help rather than hurt the grid. Some training workloads can be paused or shifted toward hours when renewables are plentiful. That kind of flexibility is exactly what ERCOT needs as large loads and renewables grow together.Texas sits at the center of all three issues. We flare and vent more than we should. We waste clean power when transmission is full. We are a magnet for AI and industrial loads.Crusoe’s solutions help with all of these challenges. Final ThoughtsThis episode is worth revisiting because it offers a concrete picture of one possible future for Texas: fewer wasted molecules, less wasted renewable power, and more large loads designed with the grid in mind.If you listen again with today’s headlines in mind, I would be interested to hear what stands out for you. If you know someone working in oil and gas, renewables, or AI infrastructure in Texas, feel free to share it with them.We will not get every siting decision right. But we do have choices about whether AI growth deepens our problems or helps solve them.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 01:30 – Cully’s background and the origin story of Crusoe* 08:00 – How digital flare mitigation works and why it cuts methane emissions* 15:00 – Digital renewables optimization, negative pricing, & stranded wind power* 21:00 – Data center and AI demand growth and what it means for the grid* 28:00– Flexibility of AI workloads and how data centers can act as flexible loads* 38:00 – Efficiency gains in AI chips and power density in modern racks* 41:00 – Location-based versus market-based carbon accounting* 43:00 – “Tally’s Law” and what it tells us about the energy transition* 50:00 – Policy and regulatory changes that could accelerate this kind of solutionShow NotesHost, Guest, & Company• Cully Cavness - LinkedIn, Twitter/X• Crusoe Energy - Crusoe Careers Page - LinkedIn, Twitter/X• Doug Lewin - LinkedIn, Twitter(X), Bluesky, & YouTubeMentions in the Podcast:•

“Everyone hates data centers.”That was the subject line on the email newsletter from Heatmap Daily the day before I sat down with Dr. Varun Sivaram, co-founder and CEO of Emerald AI. Communities see huge new loads coming onto the grid, hear about billions in new infrastructure, and worry that their bills will go up.It doesn’t have to work that way.Varun argues there are two paths. On the villain path, AI data centers drive up power bills and increase the likelihood of outages. On the hero path, they become flexible grid assets that help us use existing capacity better, absorb much of the cost of new grid infrastructure, and help residential and small commercial customers pay for distributed batteries, heat pumps, and more.Texas and ERCOT are at that fork in the road.Two futures for AI data centersVarun calls this a “critical juncture.” If ratepayers have to pay more and grid reliability takes a hit, communities start pushing projects away and the U.S. falls behind in the global AI raceThe alternative is the hero path, where data centers show up as flexible partners:Data centers in this hero path are going to contribute to grid reliability and help us to avoid rolling blackouts. I think we can get there, but we’re not on that path right now and folks are right to worry. And this is the moment where we switch from the villain to the hero.Texas has a chance to innovate — both technologically and with policy. Regulatory innovation is as important as technological innovation — maybe more so.Turning AI load into flexibilityEmerald AI is a software layer that makes AI workloads flexible. Varun breaks it down into four kinds of flexibility:* Temporal. Once you know what can move, you can shift it in time. Training a big model at 6 p.m., when ERCOT is tight, is very different than running it at 2 a.m. when prices are low and resources are abundant.* Spatial. Many jobs can move across locations. If a Texas node is stressed and another region is fine, traffic can be shifted without changing the user experience.* Resource. Some tasks truly need instant answers, others can wait minutes, hours, or days. Emerald deploys and optimizes onsite resources when necessary.* Adjacent. Data centers can purchase flexibility — putting money into the pockets of residential and small commercial customers — from distributed batteries, HVAC systems, and other controllable equipment. Put together, these layers make a data center behave less like a rigid block of demand and more like a flexible grid asset when conditions require it.The Energy Capital Podcast is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.ERCOT’s stakes and the Texas choiceVarun shared a conversation with ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas. Vegas said he did not just want a tool that jumps in during emergencies. He wanted something that keeps the grid from getting to an emergency. Don’t want for the flashing red lights; have data centers contribute flexibility when the lights are flashing yellow.That is the heart of the hero path.ERCOT was already dealing with intense load growth from industrial projects, crypto-miners, traditional data centers, increasing population, hotter temperatures, and now AI data centers. Texans will not accept anything less than high reliability and lower bills. If the PUC and ERCOT treat AI as inflexible, we will need to build a lot more capacity and infrastructure than we might otherwise need.If we require and reward flexibility, we can serve more load at lower cost, then add new infrastructure when truly needed.Final ThoughtsThe hardware and software inside AI data centers means they are already some of the most controllable loads connected to the system. With the right tools, incentives, and market structures, AI factories can act as shock absorbers instead of stress multipliers.Texas leads on gas. Texas leads on wind. Texas leads on solar and storage. We can also lead on making AI an ally to the grid, not a villain. That will take work but it is possible. It’s a choice we can make.If you enjoyed this podcast, please share it with a friend or colleague or family member or neighbor. The more Texans engage with these decisions, the better chance we have for a grid that is reliable, affordable, and cleaner for everyone.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps:* 00:00 – Intro, Varun bio, Emerald AI* 02:15 – The villain and hero paths for AI data centers* 05:30 – Phoenix pilot as a tangible example of the hero path* 09:00 – California simulation of 2020 outages* 10:00 – Possibility of doing a pilot in ERCOT, Pablo Vegas’s comments* 12:00 – What exactly does EmeraldAI do?* 14:00 – Breaking down four flexibilities: temporal, spatial, onsite resource flexibility, adjacent* 20:00 – Emerald AI’s focus is on onsite flexibility* 24:00 – Real-world stress test results* 27:00 – What excites Varun about AI* 32:00 – How AI can help lower power bills: the central tenet of the her

This is part 2 of my conversation with Nat Bullard. Check out Part 1 here:We talk a lot about the grid of the future. The truth is, that future is already showing up in Texas.Batteries are being built at record pace, data centers are chasing cheap and reliable power, and Texans are adding gigawatts worth of backup systems in homes, schools, and factories.I sat down with energy analyst Nat Bullard to ask a simple question: if we look at what is actually being built — not the rhetorical arguments happening online, but what is actually happening around the world — where are energy systems headed?We started with a comparison of batteries and gas peakers. Batteries respond in milliseconds, don’t rely on fuel deliveries during a freeze, and can make money all day providing grid services between scarcity events. Increasingly, duration is less of an issue as prices fall. As Nat reminded us, during Winter Storm Uri it was “largely things in the thermal fleet” that failed. Winterizing batteries is likely much less onerous and complicated than winterizing gas plants.Behind-the-meter systems are also booming. One- to ten-megawatt batteries can turn schools or factories into mini-resilience hubs. If Texas keeps adding storage at this pace, we could end up with the equivalent of dozens of peaker plants—only more responsive and decentralized. Nat concluded with a description of his family as a mix of, a ground source heat heat pump, a mini split, and a Franklin stove. A small hybrid system built to ride out different conditions. That is a good picture of where ERCOT is headed: a mix of gas and batteries, large wires and local resources, data centers and smart devices. The question is whether we design structures to speed up that hybrid grid on purpose or stumble along and end up there eventually anyway. The first path costs a lot less. The more we learn from what’s actually happening — the focus of Nat’s excellent annual decarbonization presentation — the more cost effective our decisions will be for Texas.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps:* 00:00 – Introduction* 01:30 – Price and attributes of batteries compared to gas peakers* 03:45 – The optimal generation stack; a portfolio approach* 07:00 – “Ruthlessly practical” developers* 09:00 – Distributed batteries and community resilience* 12:00 – Australia’s rapid installation of distributed storage* 15:00 – Texas Energy Fund’s viability* 16:30 – Global solar scale and trends* 21:00 – Electrifying countries without electricity * 23:00 – The absurdity of arguments against distributed energy* 25:00 – Automated flexible demand; using buildings as thermal batteries* 30:00 – Winter problems in ERCOT* 31:30 – Primary energy is a deeply flawed metric* 35:00 – Looking ahead to Nat’s 2026 Decarbonization slideshowResources:Guest & Company* Nat Bullard - LinkedIn* Halcyon - Company Website + LinkedIn* Nat Bullard’s Famous 200-Slide Presentation* Nat’s NY Climate Week Presentation (From Disparity to Data)Referenced in this Episode:* Energy Capital Podcast with Bill McKibben* The Energy Capital Podcast with Zach Dell* The Energy Capital Podcast with Bret Biggart:* The more recent podcast with Zach Dell et al. Studies & Policy Documents* GridStrategies Report on Data Center Demand* International Energy Agency Solar ProjectionsDoug’s Platforms* LinkedIn* YouTube* X (Twitter)Transcript:Doug Lewin (00:06.422)Welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. I’m your host, Doug Lewin, and welcome to part two of my conversation with Nat Bullard. Nat, as you heard last week, is the co-founder of Halcyon. He is also the one who puts together a fantastic energy transition and decarbonization presentation that comes out every January, which we talked about in this podcast. All around, one of the great experts on all things energy transition and decarbonization. I learned a ton from talking to Nat. I couldn’t let him go after the usual 45 to 50 minutes. We ended up going long, so we split it into two parts. This is part two.As usual, please go to douglewin.com and subscribe. Please become a paid subscriber if you are not already. This is a free episode, but it is not free to produce, and your support is extremely important to us. And you’ll get all kinds of benefits: access to the entire archives, grid roundups, reading and podcast picks, special episodes of the Energy Capital podcast that are paid only, like those with John Arnold and Dan Barcelo from T1, Rudy Garza from CPS Energy, et cetera. And please leave us a five-star review wherever you listen to your podcasts. Please enjoy part two with Nat Bullard. Thanks for listening.So that kind of leads me to where I wanted to go next. You obviously do a whole lot of tracking of batteries. We’ve been talking about electric vehicles a lot. Obviously batteries first started their performance improvement and cost declines because of their use in computers and phones. But now we’re seeing them go into cars on a mass scale and now onto th

This is Part 1 of my conversation with Nat. Part 2 will be out next Wednesday. The Video is Live on YouTubeTexas has plenty of energy stories. The harder part is finding the signal through the noise of endless filings. That is why Nat Bullard’s new venture, Halcyon, matters. It turns piles of ERCOT and PUC dockets into something manageable. It’s AI that makes dense regulatory filings sortable and understandable.Meanwhile, Nat’s annual presentation has become must-read material for anyone trying to understand what’s happening in the world of energy: the market forces, capital shifts, and technologies driving global change. He looks at macro trends like EV adoption, clean-tech capital flows, global cost curves. We talked about one of the main takeaways from this year’s edition: China’s dominance in EV manufacturing and exports The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.We also talked a lot about a recent study Halcyon did with GridLab to quantify the rapidly escalating costs of gas turbines. I asked what his biggest takeaway from compiling that research:“The biggest one for me being at a $2,500 a kilowatt cost for a combined cycle gas plant. What other competing options are there for providing power?”At that cost, there are many better options, including re-using older turbines as many of the data center developers are doing. Storage that can be sited quickly. Demand flexibility can meet much of the need. Solar is still going onto the grid at about a gigawatt per month. Targeted wires upgrades and fast local capacity can bridge the gap while long-lead assets work their way through the process.I left this conversation thinking about how information itself is infrastructure. If we can see what’s changing — if the opaque can become more transparent — we can make better, more informed decisions. Please share this episode with someone who will get something out of it and subscribe to keep the conversation going.Timestamps:* 00:00 – Introduction* 02:00 – Guest welcome, Nat Bullard* 03:00 – How Halcyon can find needles in large regulatory haystacks* 06:00 – Relevance to the Oncor rate case* 09:00 – Tracking changes in gas plant costs and across filings* 10:00 – ERCOT vs. utility load growth projections* 14:00 – Queue reality vs capacity* 16:00 – Regulators’ role to align incentives and process* 18:30 – Nat’s annual presentation* 20:00 – How Nat builds his presentation* 23:30 – China is the dominant EV manufacturer* 26:00 – Will America ever import Chinese EVs?* 27:00 – American manufacturing partnerships* 31:00 – Can Tesla keep up?* 33:00 – Permeability between EVs and power sector* 34:30 – Gas turbine supply limitations and costs* 38:51 – Closing note, turbine askResources:Guest & Company* Nat Bullard - LinkedIn* Halcyon - Company Website + LinkedIn* Nat Bullard’s Famous 200-Slide Presentation* Nat’s NY Climate Week Presentation (From Disparity to Data) * GridLab White Paper with Halcyon on Natural Gas TurbinesIndustry News & Podcasts* Oncor Rate Case* Odd Lots Stargate PodcastStudies & Policy Documents * Texas Senate Bill 6* PUC Load Forecasting Docket 58480 * PUC Financial Assurance Docket 58481Doug’s Platforms* LinkedIn* YouTube* X (Twitter)Transcript:Doug Lewin (00:05.42)Welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. I’m your host, Doug Lewin. My guest this week is Nat Bullard. Nat is and has been for a long time one of the smartest guys on energy issues. I know I have been reading his stuff long before I knew him. He does a now famous slideshow, highly anticipated by folks in the energy space that comes out every January. The last one, as many of the ones before, 200 slides long. We talked a little bit about his process for pulling all that together. He was at New Energy Finance before it was acquired by Bloomberg, wrote a newsletter that was read by hundreds of thousands of folks. He is more currently the co-founder of Halcyon, an AI-assisted research and information platform focused on energy transition. I have started using it a lot. It is great for those of us that are tracking regulatory dockets, sometimes with their many hundreds or even thousands of filings within a single docket. It is a great way to quickly summarize some of those documents. Highly recommend folks check that out. We will have a link to that as well as his famous slideshow presentation in the show notes. This conversation did go long. I love talking to Nat. And so we split this one into two. In this first one, you’ll hear a whole lot of discussion of China. He’s based in Singapore, including a whole lot on EVs and the future of the automotive industry, a whole lot more. I think you’re really going to enjoy this and then come back next week to listen to the other one. Also, please don’t forget to give us a five-star review wherever you listen to the podcast and also to subscribe to the Texas Energy and Power newsletter and to the

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.comMost solar panels are imported from China which now has the ability to manufacture over a terawatt (1,000 gigawatts) of solar modules every year — roughly equal to the entire installed base of generation in the US inclusive from every energy source.America makes less than 1/20 of that amount and even less when it comes to the more difficult task of manufacturing cells. But Texas is known for manufacturing and T1 — short for Type 1 civilization — is building solar manufacturing in Texas that could change the game. This is about energy abundance that is reliable, local, and affordable. As T1 CEO Daniel Barcelo told me:“I’ve been working in oil and gas and I am an old oil and gas guy who has run oil and gas companies globally. At the end of the day, it’s really about providing the lowest cost energy in whatever form it is and delivering that energy at a cost-competitive basis to the customer. That drives the philosophy at T1.”T1’s plan is straightforward and ambitious: a multi-site Texas footprint that connects a domestic solar manufacturing chain from materials to finished modules. The company has a module assembly plant in Wilmer in the Dallas area, and is developing cell manufacturing in Rockdale in Central Texas. Upstream, they’ve lined up domestic polysilicon supply from Corning to feed those lines.While T1 scales up supply, demand for power is surging. Texas electricity use is rising rapidly, driven mostly by oil and gas demand, cryptocurrency mining, industrial electrification, and data centers. Texas demand is up 23% in the last four years; most of that new demand is being met by solar power. When more of the equipment is made here, projects move faster and carry less supply-chain risk. And solar can be scaled very quickly to meet near-term needs.“AI needs energy. Data centers need energy. They need it now. It’s great to build nuclear plants in 2030. That’s awesome. But the world’s not waiting. And the big tech companies are not waiting. And right now, solar and storage can deliver it.”This is not either-or. Texas has long succeeded by adding the next tool that works. Solar plus storage are tools for growth and we should use them. Domestic manufacturing creates jobs and strengthens our energy security and global competitiveness.Texas has never waited for someone else to build our future. If companies like T1 can stand up the full stack here, we get more than panels. We get speed, security, control, and the ability to match ERCOT’s needs with Texas-made solutions.If you found this episode useful, share it with a colleague. If you want more Texas-first, reality-based energy coverage, subscribe and join the conversation.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction * 02:00 – T1’s Texas footprint overview* 04:00 – U.S. solar chain, Corning partnership* 05:30 – Jobs and polysilicon-to-module flow* 07:00 – Building U.S. cell capacity* 09:00 – Timelines and receptivity of Texas political leaders* 11:00 – Demand growth requires gigawatts per month* 13:00 – Competitive advantages of building in Texas* 15:30 – Oil and gas demand growth met by solar and wind, saving $1/barrel* 20:30 – When King Coal tried to kill natural gas and why gas won* 23:00 – Political economy of varying energy sources* 25:30 – Can the US build enough solar to meet domestic need and export?* 31:00 – Solar trade investigations, tariffs, anti-dumping rules, FEOC* 35:00 – Solar and manufacturing tax credits under OBBBA, “stackability”* 38:00 – How and why tax policy benefits all energy, including oil and gas* 42:00 – Will Texas continue to blaze trails and attract new energy companies?* 45:00 – Distributed power is “sovereign energy”ResourcesGuest & Company• Daniel Barcelo — LinkedIn • T1 Energy — Company Website + LinkedInCompany & Industry News• Reuters: T1 Energy and Corning agree to fully U.S.-made solar supply chain• PV Tech: T1 Energy–Corning “landmark” U.S.-made poly/wafer/cell deal• Manufacturing Dive: T1 to establish $850M solar cell facility in Texas• T1 Energy IR: Corning deal accelerates ‘Made in America’ solar • T1 Energy IR: Strategic investment in Talon PV Related Articles & Podcasts• How Batteries Are Reshaping the Texas Grid (with Suzanne Leta) • Beyond the Tax Credit Cliff (with Freedom Solar CEO Bret Biggart) • Creating a Distributed Battery Network (with Zach Dell)• The End of Solar & Battery Manufacturing in America? Studies & Policy Documents • S&P Platts 2022 Study On Electrification of the Permian Basin • Rystad Study on $/barrel savings • FERC Order 636 • Section 232 Investigations • Foreign Entity of Concern Guidance | Dept. of EnergyDoug’s Platforms• LinkedIn • YouTube• X (Twitter)TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:05.25)Welcome to the Energy Ca

The full video is on YoutubeTexas isn’t just projecting future load growth; it’s happening now. Maura Yates of Mothership Innovations set the stage for our discussion at GCPA’s Fall conference earlier this month in Austin. “We are looking at meters that are 800 megawatts on a single meter… that’s crazy. We used to think 10 megawatts was a big deal…” She also cut through the headline noise: “The next three years are really critical… This is the them we are hearing at this conference: it’s a near term discussion… We have a big, urgent discussion ahead of us.”How much of the 200 gigawatt large load queue is real and how much will actually come in the next few years?Hayden Stanley of Good Peak brought the developer’s eye to the near term. He sees a “whole new layer of infrastructure” coming as the grid gets smarter and more coordinated, but warned that SB6 complexity and behind-the-meter buildouts can slow timelines.Tom McGinn with EnergyWell focused on “lifting the system load factor” with tools people don’t have to think about, built on “optimizing interval-level usage to respond to price signals.” He added a sober note: in the next few years, mass-market customers could get squeezed by rising load in the short term, though he thinks in the longer term, Texas will have continued investment in the grid and new technologies and abundance for consumers.Zach Dell of Base Power Company reframed things taking a much longer view:You’ve got to make large investments with a long-term time horizon. And I think there are really strong precedents for this kind of orientation in other parts of technology. You saw Uber do it in transportation, Amazon in commerce, SpaceX in aerospace. We’re taking a similar approach to energy where we’re making 10, 20 year investments, both in terms of the technology that we’re developing, but also in terms of how we think about policy. Base has added 100 megawatt-hours in the short time it’s been in business and is now adding 20 megawatt-hours per month. Large loads are coming but so is innovation across the grid.Timestamps* 00:00 – Opening* 01:00 – Guest introductions* 03:30 – Load growth happening now much faster than expected* 04:30 – Critical discussions are about the next 2-3 years* 07:00 – Smarter grid, higher load factors, new infrastructure layers* 09:00 – Potential bearish load growth over the next few years* 10:30 – Thinking long term about resiliency and costs * 12:00 – Is ERCOT still working to remove roadblocks? Are process changes needed?* 17:00 – Smart meters enable design innovation and response to price signals* 19:30 – Demand-side flexibility from batteries: “price down, reliability up”* 22:00 – Base Power’s scale, the new factory in Austin* 24:00 – Gigawatt scale virtual power plants (VPPs)* 25:00 – Inflation Reduction Act repeal* 26:30 – The advantage of distributed, smaller scale (* 28:00 – Senate Bill 6 and the case for a more bearish demand growth case* 30:00 – What could slow down load growth* 33:00 – Data problems with large load demand response* 34:00 – Audience question: Data center water use, closed loop design* 36:30 – Audience question: Doug’s one top policy change, would it be a carbon tax?* 37:30 – Audience question: Zach- when will you expand to California?* 38:30 – Audience question: Will grid tech still advance if there’s not load growth?* 40:30 – Closing ResourcesPanelists & Company* Maura Yates LinkedIn, Company Page & LinkedIn* Hayden Stanley - Bio, Company Page & LinkedIn* Zach Dell - LinkedIn, Company Page & LinkedIn* Tom McGinn - Linkedin, Company Page & LinkedIn* Doug Lewin - LinkedIn, YouTube, Twitter, Bluesky, and ThreadsBooks, Articles & Podcasts Discussed* Load Growth: What States Are Doing to Accommodate Increasing Electric Demand (EPRI) PDF (Clean Energy States Alliance)* NRG’s Gigawatt VPP in Texas with Travis Kavulla (Energy Capital Podcast) * Shape Load Perfectly, Inject Energy Optimally with Sonnen’s Blake Richetta (Energy Capital Podcast)* The Year the Texas Legislature Changed the Energy Game Forever by Russell Gold (Texas Monthly)* ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas Board Presentation:TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:06.464)It’s great to be here this morning. Hope everybody’s doing great. It’s been a great couple of days. Really want to thank Gulf Coast Power for again putting together such a great event. I think my first Gulf Coast Power was like 15, 16 years ago. This is the 40th anniversary. It’s amazing to see you guys still going so strong. This has been a great conference. I’ve learned a ton, caught up with a lot of people. I am Doug Lewin. I do a couple of different things, but one of the things I do is I host the Energy Capital podcast. We are recording this today and we’ll release it as an episode. For those that are listening later, we are in Austin at the AT&T Conference Center at the Gulf Coast Power Conference. So I have four amazing panelists here. I can’t wait to get into this discussion. We’ve got a lot to talk about, but would each of you

Watch the Conversation on YouTubeHeadlines warn that data centers are straining the Texas grid. The reality is more interesting: data centers — through their own flexibility and by supporting distributed flexibility markets — can strengthen the grid.I explored that topic and a lot more with Astrid Atkinson, CEO and co-founder of Camus Energy and former senior reliability engineer at Google. At Google, she led teams responsible for keeping the world’s search engine online, matching computing load to available capacity across continents. Her lessons from that experience translates well to the grid: reliability doesn’t come from scale alone. Reliability comes from flexibility and orchestration.Astrid calls it “grid orchestration” which means coordinating and optimizing both supply and demand in real time all the way down to homes and businesses, but starting with better data and better management of the distribution grid. We’re moving toward a more decentralized network of flexible resources: batteries, EVs, thermostats, and yes, data centers. We’re going to need a much smarter, much better orchestrated grid.Texas already has the raw material for this shift.Rooftop solar, batteries, and EVs are scaling faster than ever. We now have over 6 gigawatts of distributed resources in ERCOT, roughly the size of six large power plants.But they’re not well coordinated and that disorganized integration means we’re leaving cost savings and reliability benefits on the table. Part of the problem is that market signals aren’t flowing to distributed resources at a level near their actual value.That’s where data centers could potentially come in.If data center developers fund load flexibility, they could potentially put money into consumers’ pockets and increase their speed to interconnection. [D]ata centers fundamentally are not really budget constrained for getting these things built. They’re really time constrained. And so, I think in there is the opportunity to start thinking about off-market or kind of secondary market opportunities to get value for flexibility, both from the site itself, but also from you, me, batteries [and other DERs]… Astrid’s experience offers two key lessons for Texas:* Automation must be simple and local. The best systems don’t depend on constant central control. * The biggest savings aren’t in wholesale prices, they’re in avoided infrastructure. Flexible demand can defer costly upgrades to poles and wires, easing pressure on bills.We’re seeing movement in the right direction, ERCOT’s efforts to integrate distributed energy resources, electric cooperatives piloting new demand response tools, and increasing talk of creating distribution-level markets where buyers and sellers can trade flexibility directly.Texas has always led by embracing what’s next before anyone else believed it could work. This is the next frontier: flexibility, orchestration, and coordination of DERs.“There’s never been a more exciting time to work in this industry,” Astrid said. She’s right. We have the tools, the data, and the entrepreneurial spirit. What we need now is the will to connect them.The path forward isn’t about choosing between growth, affordability, and reliability. If we build smart, Texas can have it all.If this perspective resonates, share it with someone who cares about where Texas energy goes next and subscribe to stay part of that conversation.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Watch the Interview Here:Timestamps:* 00:00 – Intro* 02:30 – Astrid’s background and Camus* 05:00 – Google reliability lessons* 06:30 – Texas load growth reality* 11:00 – Contracting flexibility, framing the problem* 12:30 – Internet-scale orchestration parallels* 14:30 – Major reliability event takeaways* 18:00 – What a flexible grid requires* 20:00 – Paying Texans for household flexibility* 27:30 – Visibility before control (DSO layer)* 31:30 – Intelligent automation, local control* 34:00 – Value is in avoided T&D spend* 38:00 – Co-ops and munis as testbeds* 46:30 – Edge markets and price signals* 56:30 – Bills down, capacity up, resilience* 58:30 – Closing thoughts Resources:Guest & Company* Astrid Atkinson (LinkedIn)* Camus Energy, (LinkedIn)Company & Industry News* “So What Does Camus Do Exactly?” (Camus Energy blog)* Camus wins Innovation Challenge Award at Data Center World (Camus Energy)* Access “Getting ahead of the EV tipping point” AES and Camus White Paper (Camus Energy)* Voltus “Bring Your Own Capacity” Announcement (Voltus)* ERCOT Selects GE Vernova to Help Drive Innovation in DERs Announcement (ERCOT)* ERCOT Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation Announcement (ERCOT)* Community pressure mounts against CPS disconnection policy, rate structures (San Antonio Express News) * National Energy Assistance Directors Association. Energy Hardship Report.* Google’s new plan to keep its data centers from stressing the grid (Canary Media)* Texas law gives ERCOT authority to disconnect data centers in emergencies

The federal 30% solar tax credit has driven demand for solar but it’s about to expire. And when it does, some worry the bottom will fall out of the market. But what’s actually emerging looks less like a collapse and more like a shift which could lead to bigger growth down the road.In this episode, Bret Biggart, CEO of Freedom Solar, offers a grounded look at how a major Texas-based installer is adapting in these uncertain times. Freedom Solar began in Austin and now operates across Texas, one of the fastest-growing residential markets in the country.The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Biggart notes that while the tax credit’s end will make sales more difficult, other forces like rising power prices and better financing tools are keeping solar within reach. New third-party ownership models are allowing companies to use commercial incentives to maintain homeowner savings, smoothing out the post-credit transition.That’s not the only shift underway. Consumer protection has become a growing focus for regulators after years of aggressive door-to-door sales and subcontracting issues. A recent Texas bill aims to bring more transparency to the process, ensuring buyers know who is selling, installing, and servicing their system. The Texas Legislature also made it easier to build with faster permitting. And storage is quickly moving from luxury to standard: 67% of Texans get storage with solar from Bret’s company now. The number is 90% in Houston. Freedom Solar is also expanding into efficient HVAC systems like heat pumps, which cut energy use and increase comfort.There are still challenges ahead. Equipment costs, tariffs, and permitting inconsistencies remain barriers and the ending of the tax credit is an undeniable headwind. But after Winter Storm Uri and Hurricane Beryl, Texans put a high value on resilience and the flexibility of distributed systems has massive value for the grid. Even as incentives fade, technology keeps improving, and Texans want reliable, resilient, and affordable power.That’s what this moment represents, not the end of the solar story, but its maturation.If you found this perspective useful, share it with a neighbor and subscribe for more grounded insights on Texas energy and policy each week.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 01:45 – Guest intro and background, origin of Freedom Solar* 05:00 – Importance of in-house salespeople and customer-first processes* 07:30 – Impacts of federal budget bill, end of tax credits* 11:00 – Long term implications for solar, rethinking the business * 13:30 – Third party ownership, pre-pay PPAs and other structures to lower costs* 17:30 – Transferring solar and solar payments when selling a house* 20:00 – Consumer protections and stopping bad sales practices* 25:00 – Some Texas bills that make it easier to build and install solar + storage, problems with implementation* 31:00 – Attachment rates of storage is up to 67% statewide and 90% in Houston * 33:30 – An integrated demand side: solar + storage + heat pumps* 39:30 – Difficulties for customers trying to get heat pumps* 43:30 – Heat pump cost differential from minimum performance HVAC* 46:30 – Supply chain, tariffs, domestic content* 51:00 – Two main variables for solar economics: cost to install and cost of electricity * 53:00 – The value of resilience* 56:00 – ClosingResourcesGuest & Company• Bret Biggart - LinkedIn• Freedom Solar Power + LinkedInReferenced During the Show• Solar legislation passed in Texas’s 89th Session (summary)• New law cuts red tape for rooftop solar and batteries (SB 1202) + Bill Text• TDLR: Residential Solar Retailers program (SB 1036) overview• Texas Legislature passes Residential Solar Retailer Regulatory Act (SB 1036)• Do Solar Panels Increase a Home’s Value? | The Wall Street Journal • Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute’s Community Voices survey• Sara DiNatale’s award-winning series on solar sales | San Antonio Express News• Heat pumps, heat pumps, heat pumps! NoahpinionRelated Podcasts by Doug• Resistance is Still Futile: Exploring Heat Pumps with Eric Wilson• How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance with Tyler Norris• Know Before You Go Solar with Sara DiNataleRelated Substack Posts by Doug• The End of Solar & Battery Manufacturing in America?• Rapid Demand Growth Outpaced by New Supply in Texas• Energy Scarcity• Helping the Grid by Helping CustomersDoug’s Platforms• LinkedIn• YouTube• X (Twitter)TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:05.87)Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. I’m your host, Doug Lewin. My guest this week is Brett Biggart. He is the chief executive officer of Freedom Solar Power. Freedom is one of the largest solar companies in the country, top 10 by size, around 500 employees, and probably the largest or among the largest within the state of Texas. I thought it was a good time to do an interview with a solar entrepreneur, given all the

Texas load is rising fast, supply chains are tight, and the cheapest near-term resource is demand we shape intentionally. But are the right economic signals there to bring this resource to scale?Texas has a highly competitive power supply market, but the demand side is severely underdeveloped. In my conversation with Travis Kavulla, former Montana PSC Chairman and current leader in retail innovation, we explored how Texas can unlock the cheapest near-term resource by shaping demand on purpose.Retailers now have both the data and tools to automate flexibility in homes and small businesses. That’s the fastest way to keep bills in check and the lights on during tight hours.“The incentives are there for sure… when spot prices rise above a flat retail rate, the incentive flips, and it’s valuable for both the retailer and the customer to reduce.”Smart Meter Texas enables interval settlement, and connected devices like thermostats, EVs, and batteries can now respond automatically. This is finally real.Retailers are competing not just on price, but on automation. NRG has moved its virtual power plant strategy to the center of its retail offering, pairing Vivint installations with demand response.“We announced a one-gigawatt goal… and hit 150 megawatts this year.”That flexibility hedges against the most expensive hours and brings value directly into customers’ homes. ERCOT has also proposed a program, capped at 500 MW, that pays households for reducing use in the tightest hours. It helps offset hardware costs and puts residential customers on more even footing with large industry.Our system should reward shifting, not just saving — using more when power is plentiful, less when it’s scarce. That avoids overbuilding while meeting growth from data centers, electrification, and hotter summers. Winter risk is just as much a demand issue as supply. Resistance heating drove massive spikes during Uri. Heat pump retrofits can improve reliability and affordability, but without targeted support, private markets may underinvest.Transmission costs are another sticking point. Large customers can avoid charges by guessing peaks, shifting costs onto everyone else. Residential customers use about a third of the energy but pay half of transmission, which rose more than 120% in a decade. Reforming 4CP so costs align with who drives grid build-out would be fairer.Texas can build a true two-sided market. Let competition automate flexibility in millions of homes, fix cost signals, and target winter risk directly. That’s how we keep bills manageable, stay reliable, and grow with confidence.If this breakdown was useful, share it with a friend or colleague, and subscribe so you don’t miss the next Texas-focused grid update.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction to Travis Kavulla* 02:00 – Introduction to NRG* 04:00 – ERCOT competition and demand side incentives* 06:30 – The importance of Smart Meter Texas* 09:00 – Innovation from competition, telecom and airlines analogies* 12:00 – Importance of demand flexibility both from AI and residential sectors* 15:00 – Rate design for shifting use* 17:00 – Increasing load factors, how using more energy can be energy efficient* 19:00 – NRG’s VPP with Google / Renew Home and their progress toward their 1 GW goal* 23:00 – Integration with smart home technologies* 25:00 – The potential for customers to lower prices* 28:00 – Sponsor: Aurora Energy Transition Forum* 28:45 – ERCOT’s residential DR proposal, why ERS doesn’t work for small customers* 32:00 – Why NRG has broken from other generators to support residential DR* 34:00 – REPs in Texas’ energy efficiency programs * 38:00 – Can we leverage markets to reduce wintertime outage risk through energy efficiency?* 41:00 – Part of the cause of Uri outages was extremely high demand, difficulty * 44:00 – Lack of focus from Utility Commissions on demand side* 46:00 — Sponsor: Intersolar and Energy Storage North America* 47:00 — Utilities are incentivized to spend on capital but not on operations* 52:00 – Why and how transmission cost allocation and 4CP should change* 57:00 – ClosingResourcesGuest & Company• Travis Kavulla: LinkedIn• NRG Energy: Website, LinkedInReferenced in the Conversation• Travis’ University of Chicago Syllabus: Utilities and Electricity Markets: Regulation in the United States • Book: Prophets of Regulation• Travis’ ESIG Whitepaper: Why is the Smart Grid So Dumb?An Audit Report on Critical Infrastructure Activities at the Railroad CommissionNRG’s filing post-Uri on wintertime demand with resistance heat 100% higher than summertime demand, referenced in my very first Substack article: 2022 Cold Snap Shows Resistance is FutileCompany & Industry News• NRG, Renew Home, and Google Cloud announce plan for a 1 GW Texas VPP • NRG to buy 18 gas plants from LS Power in $12B deal (Reuters)• NRG wins nearly $800M in Texas Energy Fund loans for gas plants (Houston Chronicle)Related Podcasts by Doug• The Name of the Game is Flexibility• Creating a Distributed

In Part 1 of my conversation with economist Lynne Kiesling, we traced how monopoly utilities and central planning helped electrify the country. That model worked. Economies of scale and guaranteed returns brought capital into the system, and within a few decades, nearly every home had electricity.But the world has changed. Technologies are smaller, decentralized, and more flexible. Risks are more complex. Consumers expect more than just “the light turns on.” In some areas, the old model now creates perverse incentives: rewarding capital spending over performance, insulating utilities from risk, and slowing innovation.So the question is: what comes next?In Part 2, we explore how markets can evolve beyond wholesale and retail competition to tackle the next frontier: risk allocation, demand-side flexibility, and performance-based regulation. And we look at how AI-driven data centers are testing the limits of the old model while creating new opportunities for Texas to lead.Markets as Error CorrectionMarkets don’t just allocate resources, they correct errors.As Lynne explained:“If someone has made an investment and… we’ve built too many gas power plants, and we’re not earning profits on that, that’s a signal to me that I need to take my money and put it somewhere else.”That’s how we avoid repeating mistakes. Yet in the utility model, many risks never reach shareholders. After Hurricane Beryl, for example, CenterPoint admitted its failures but still posted a billion dollars in profits. Consumers bore the outage costs, while investors stayed insulated.The missing piece: markets for risk. Today, outage risk, rate risk, and weather risk aren’t fully priced or traded. Post-Uri, some generators took huge hits while others profited. That’s markets working. But for regulated utilities, risk rarely lands where it should.Of course, markets don’t solve everything on their own. Consumers need protection against fraud and market manipulation, and regulators still have a vital role in setting guardrails. The goal isn’t to remove oversight, but to let markets do what they do best, deliver solutions faster than central planning.Demand FlexibilityFor decades, demand seemed inelastic. People flipped a switch, the light came on, and rates averaged out costs. But digital automation has changed the game. Devices from EV chargers to air conditioners to fridges can now respond to prices automatically.“We could find that there is a lot more latent flexibility on the demand side that would not inconvenience or discomfort consumers.” - Lynne KieslingImagine refrigerators with backup batteries. When the grid is stressed, those batteries could keep food cold without drawing power, creating resilience for the household and flexibility for the grid.Markets can unlock this value. Today, no one pays you for your fridge’s flexibility. But if performance-based regulation and transactive energy systems take hold, millions of small, automated actions could add up to major resilience.Performance Over SpendingRate-of-return regulation rewards utilities for spending capital, not necessarily for delivering better outcomes. Lynne contrasted that with price-cap or performance-based systems:* Rate-of-return: utilities get a guaranteed return, no matter the outcome.* Price-cap: utilities must meet quality requirements under a certain cost* Performance-based regulation: rewards improvements in reliability, efficiency, or customer service, usually removes incentives for capital spending and removes disincentives for operational expenses“If I were rewriting utility regulation, there would be a penalty structure on your ROE depending on your [reliability] scores.”- Lynne KieslingAligning incentives with performance instead of capital spending could drive innovation from transmission and distribution utilities.AI and Data Centers: The Demand TsunamiPerhaps the most urgent shift is the rise of AI and hyperscale data centers. The International Energy Agency projects global data center demand will double by 2030.In the U.S., McKinsey forecasts a 23% compound annual growth rate through 2030, adding 400 terawatt hours of new demand, the equivalent of adding another Texas in just a few years.Utilities, designed for less dramatic acceleration, can’t match that pace. Data centers are already seeking alternatives: onsite solar + storage, natural gas peakers, geothermal pilots, and even small modular reactors.Texas has a leg up. In many states, large customers are captive even for their generating resources to the monopoly utility. In ERCOT, they can contract directly with generators. That flexibility is why AI companies are flocking here and why Texas can continue to lead.The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.From Capacity to CapabilitiesThe old system was built on capacity: how many megawatts you could generate or consume at peak. But AI and automat

Over a hundred years ago, the monopoly business utility model emerged as the one that could attract sufficient capital to electrify everything.The monopoly utility business was championed by Thomas Edison’s protégé and early leader of ComEd in Chicago, Sam Insull.It worked. By mid-century, most Americans had power.But today, competition for generation and retail have shown that monopolies are not necessary. Texas is a poster child for for competition but even Texas has little competition on the distribution side — and the cost of distribution is skyrocketing with no ability for competitors to offer alternatives that could save consumers money.The monopoly model literally rewards utilities for spending more capital, even when smarter, cheaper options exist.In my conversation with economist Lynne Kiesling, we traced the arc from Insull’s vision to today, and talked about where the system is showing serious signs of distress. And we discussed how that could change…How We Got Here: Edison’s MachineEdison designed complete systems, from generators to the lamp in JP Morgan’s house. Insull scaled that model in Chicago, betting on economies of scale (bigger plants) and scope (serving factoreis, homes and electric trolleys together to increase system utilization and load factors).That became the vertically integrated monopoly: a single company, fully integrated, would keep costs low. Legislatures around the country formalized it, spreading the monopoly-utility model far and wide.It was the right model for the time. America needed electrification, and investors needed stable returns.“Economies of scale and scope… that’s your natural monopoly right there.” - Lynne KieslingWhy It Worked Then and Why It Doesn’t NowThe framework assumed three things:* Bigger plants are always cheaper.* Vertical integration and central planning are essential.* Utilities should earn guaranteed returns on new capital.That fit a world that wasn’t yet electrified and needed massive centralized power plants. But two revolutions were disruptive to the monopoly model:* Gas turbines: By the 1980s, combined-cycle plants made smaller, flexible generation competitive and lower cost than bigger centralized plants. The “dash to gas” in the 2000s proved it.* Digitalization: Sensors, controls, and standards cut transaction costs. Coordination no longer required vertical integration.Price Discovery: The LinchpinEconomist Friedrich Hayek described prices as a “system of telecommunications.” ERCOT proves it daily. When scarcity prices spike, batteries discharge, generators ramp up, demand response kicks in. Investors see those signals and commit capital for more resources.“Markets are a discovery procedure… trial and error with your own capital is how we get the most benefit.” - Lynne KieslingEvery bet on future conditions shapes tomorrow’s incentives. That’s why Texas leads in storage growth, retail innovation, and is attracting new gas peaker plants, too.But here’s the catch: we don’t allow price discovery work at the distribution level.The Last Monopoly MileTransmission and distribution remain monopoly domains. Under today’s rules, utilities earn more by spending more. Propose a $50 million substation, get it approved, earn a return. But what if a portfolio of distributed resources (e.g. batteries, EV charging, demand response) solved the same problem for half the cost?In most states, including Texas, that option isn’t tested. Regulators just green-light the $50 million.That’s why Lynne calls for “quarantining the monopoly”: keep exclusive rights to the poles and wires, but open competition for solutions at the grid edge.Final ThoughtsTexas already showed the world that wholesale competition works. Volatility spurs investment, spreads risk to investors, and drives down long-term costs.The next frontier is distribution. If we quarantine the monopoly to the wires while opening structured competition for everything else, we’ll see faster innovation, more reliability per dollar, and lower bills.That’s the Texas way: pragmatic, innovative, and willing to lead.This is just Part 1 of my conversation with Lynne Kiesling. Next week in Part 2, we’ll dive into data centers, AI demand, and why risk allocation will define the grid’s future.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 02:30 – Why history matters today* 05:00 – Edison’s vision for a fully integrated electric system* 07:30 – Insull’s bargain: regulate us but grant a monopoly & don’t municipalize* 10:30 – Was monopoly the right solution then?* 16:30 – Natural monopolies: economies of scale and scope* 20:00– Outdated assumptions, Texas competition* 22:00 – Rate-of-return regulation, capital bias, and technology innovation* 26:30 – The changes brought by combined-cycle gas plants and digitalization* 30:00 – Quarantine the monopoly, price signals* 31:30 – Do conservatives still support competitive markets?* 33:00 – How and why arbitrage lower prices* 34:30 – Distribution system efficiency and utility incentives* 37:0

Watch the Full Conversation with Graphs on YouTube (Updated)Utility bills are rising faster than ever. In the first half of 2025 alone, utilities requested $29 billion in rate increases, already a record for any full year, with months still to go. That’s more than double the pace of 2024.If you’re wondering why, you’re not alone. I hear this question constantly: “If renewables lower costs, why is my bill going up?”The answer: transmission and distribution. The costs of poles, wires, substations, and local infrastructure that move electricity from plants to homes is rising quickly, while the cost of generation is flat or declining in most places.To unpack why — and what can be done to help struggling consumers — I sat down with Charles Hua, Director of Powerlines, a new national consumer advocacy group focused on modernizing the regulatory system. The Real Reason Bills Are Rising“Generation is not what’s driving up bills. It’s really the transmission and distribution piece.” – Charles HuaUtilities are pouring capital into poles, wires, and substations. Much of it is necessary, but some isn’t. And because utilities earn profits on capital expenditures, they’re incentivized to build more; they are not incentivized to find cheaper alternatives.The data is striking: wholesale electricity prices have been flat, or even declined, over the past 15 years. Nationally, retail prices for households, meanwhile, have jumped from about 12¢ to 16–17¢ per kWh. And gas utility bills have been rising faster than electric bills. Those gaps are revealing.All Regulation Is Incentive RegulationUtilities make money by earning a rate of return on capital projects. But operational expenses, like vegetation management that could prevent outages, or cloud-based outage trackers, do not generate profits. The result is a bias toward big builds instead of low-cost, reliability-focused fixes.This is the system we have created and that needs reform. Consumers know something’s broken. Powerlines’ survey shows 4 in 5 Americans feel powerless over their utility bills, across Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. Many don’t know what’s driving costs, and rate cases remain opaque and inaccessible.Short-Term Fixes: Squeezing More Juice from the GridWe don’t have to accept runaway bills as inevitable. There are proven tools available now:* Grid-enhancing technologies (GETs): Sensors and software that increase the capacity of existing lines. Charles calls them “ibuprofen for the grid.”* Distributed energy resources (DERs) and virtual power plants (VPPs): Solar, batteries, and smart devices coordinated to reduce peak demand and defer new builds.* Energy efficiency: Still the cheapest, fastest way to cut bills, though underutilized in Texas compared to other states.Each of these solutions stretches the grid we already have, reducing the need for constant billion-dollar expansions.Long-Term Reforms: Aligning Incentives with OutcomesFixing incentives is key. Options include:* Performance-based regulation (PBR): Tying utility profits to outcomes like affordability and reliability, not just capital spending.* Distribution system planning: Opening the “black box” of utility investment so alternatives like DERs can compete with substation expansions.* Return on equity reforms: Expanding utility profit opportunities to operational solutions, not just capital-intensive projects.None of this is simple, but without it, the trajectory is clear: higher bills and growing consumer backlash.Why Texas MattersTexas is ground zero for this debate. Utilities like Oncor have outlined multi-decade capital plans that could quadruple spending by the 2030s. If nothing changes, those costs land squarely on customers.At the same time, Texas leads the nation in renewables, is building out batteries faster than any other state, and has the independent streak to pioneer smarter utility models. As Charles put it, “Now is the time for consumers to get engaged.”Final ThoughtsUtility bills do not have to keep spiraling upward. We need investment in the grid, yes, but smart, efficient investment that maximizes resiliency while protecting affordability.This is where public utility commissions come in. Their decisions determine how much we pay, how reliable our grid is, and how fast we can adapt to rising demand.The challenge is real. So is the opportunity. If we get this right, Texas and the U.S. can build a grid that is stronger, smarter, and more affordable.Let’s make sure consumers have a voice in shaping it.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction * 02:00 – Meet Charles Hua, Powerlines* 05:00 – Why bills are rising* 09:30 – Different types of utilities* 12:00 – Profits and business model of T&D utilities* 13:30 – Alternatives to rate-based infrastructure* 15:00 – Why rates keep going up even as generation costs go down* 17:00 – Texas rates are low but our bills are high* 19:30 – Why 80% of consumers feel powerless over their ele

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.comThis is my recent presentation on the latest trends in Texas energy and power for subscribers called the “Texas Power Rush,” followed by a Q&A.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.comSan Antonio is one of the fastest growing cities in the country and have requests to interconnect AI infrastructure and data centers that would triple their size. With that growth comes a simple but daunting challenge: how do you keep the air conditioning on while growing the economy and keeping bills affordable?CPS Energy, the nation’s fifth largest municipally owned utility, sits at the center of this challenge. Rudy Garza, CPS’s president and CEO, has spent the last two decades in Texas energy. In this episode, we talked through retiring old coal units, acquiring 1.7 gigawatts of gas plants, adding renewables and batteries, leveraging demand side resources, and preparing for a wave of new demand from AI data centers.As Rudy put it, Texas needs it all right now. The question is how to balance affordability, reliability, and growth in a rapidly changing landscape.A Utility in TransitionCPS Energy serves 1.4 million customers and maintains some of the lowest combined electric and gas rates in Texas. They return hundreds of millions of dollars each year to the city budget, while also managing 6,000 MW of peak demand and a portfolio of about 10,000 MW of generation.That portfolio is shifting fast. CPS retired its Deely coal units in 2018, is converting one of the Spruce coal units to gas by 2028 while closing the other, and has plans to retire the aging Braunig and Sommers units within five years. These changes create both opportunity and risk. As Rudy said, you cannot run 1960s-era plants forever and expect reliability.By the numbers* Customers: ~1.4 million total; ~1.0 million electric, ~0.4 million gas* Peak demand: roughly 6,000 MW, growing ~150 to 190 MW per year* Portfolio today: ~8,000 MW dispatchable plus ~2,500 MW renewables* Recent acquisition: 1,700 MW of gas at roughly $500 per kW versus $2,400 to $2,700 per kW to build new* Solar: 730 MW contracted or in construction, with another 500 to 600 MW in the pipeline* Storage: 520 MW secured, tracking toward more than 1,000 MW* Wind: 400 MW request for proposals in market* Demand response: about 250 MW per event, split roughly half residential and half commercial* Customer reality: about 60 percent low to moderate income; CPS targets modest, occasional asks near 5 percent when neededIf this was useful, share it with a colleague or neighbor. It helps more Texans find practical solutions.

Sometimes I get to bring you a conversation that really feels like a turning point.This week, I sat down with Bill McKibben, one of the most respected voices in climate and energy. His new book, Here Comes the Sun (out today! order it here), is different from his earlier work. Bill has long been known for sounding the alarm. But this time, he’s bringing something else: optimism.Why? Because solar and other clean technologies are no longer “someday.” They are scaling now — all around the world — faster than anyone predicted.Solar’s Exponential TakeoffIn 2009, The Economist predicted it would take 20 years for solar to scale up by an order of magnitude.It took six.Today, the world installs 230–240 gigawatts of solar every six months. That’s two massive coal plants’ worth of clean energy every single day.This isn’t fringe. This isn’t boutique. It’s mainstream power.Think Costco, not Whole Foods. Bulk, cheap, ready-to-go.Everywhere from Pakistan to Texas: A Global StoryThe shift is happening everywhere.* In Pakistan, rooftop solar grew so fast that in just 8 months, citizens built the equivalent of half their national grid. Farmers led the way, cutting diesel use by 35 percent in a single year.* In Texas, oil and gas operators in the Permian are connecting to the grid or tapping wind and solar because it is cheaper than running diesel generators.When energy is more affordable, more reliable, and easier to deploy, people adopt it. That is true from Karachi to the Concho Valley.The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.No Longer “Alternative Energy”We’ve used the phrase “alternative energy” for wind and solar for decades. Now it means something different: natural gas and coal are the alternatives and renewables + storage are the most common, even dominant, resources.Last year, 90% of new power plants built worldwide were clean energy.Oil and gas remain vital and will continue to play an important role, but the growth is in clean energy.Leading With People’s Needs, Not Just ClimateHere’s the pivot that excites me most.If we lead with “climate crisis,” people shut down. Either they don’t agree it’s happening and check out, or they get it and feel depressed and stressed out.But if we lead with better lives and lower bills, people listen:* Half of Texans report they are choosing between food, medicine, and electricity. Renewables lower costs.* EVs aren’t sacrifices. They are smoother, faster, and cheaper to fuel.* Heat pumps aren’t compromises. They reduce stress on the grid, make homes more comfortable, and lower consumers’ energy bills.When we talk about clean energy in terms of savings and resilience, people connect. And those benefits also happen to reduce emissions.This is not about jerseys or tribes. It’s about abundance.Land, Liberty, and Local BenefitsOpponents often argue renewables take up too much land. But the math tells a different story:* 1 acre of corn for ethanol → fuels an F-150 for ~25,000 miles.* 1 acre of solar panels → powers an F-150 Lightning for 700,000 miles.That’s not even close.And the benefits are tangible:* Ranchers and farmers are keeping land in the family thanks to wind and solar leases.* Rural schools are funded by clean energy tax revenue.* Cattle graze happily under turbines, even using them for shade.This is energy independence at the community level — red state, blue state, doesn’t matter.A Race Between Challenge and OpportunityWe’re living two stories at once:* Bad News: By June 2023, Earth had entered the hottest 12-month stretch in 125,000 years.* Good News: That same month, humanity began installing over a gigawatt of solar per day.The race is on. The question is not if we transition. It’s how fast.The outcome depends on how quickly we build. We now have the tools to create cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable power. The question is whether we will use them fast enough.Bill put it bluntly: “We can’t stop global warming. But we can stop it short of breaking civilization.”Why Policy Still MattersThe economics are overwhelming, but politics can slow things down.* Texas became a leader in wind power because of transmission investments made two decades ago.* The oil and gas industry poured $500 million into lobbying and ads last year.* Rooftop solar in the U.S. still takes months to permit, compared to days in places like Australia.* And yet, local politics in Texas are shifting as communities fight for renewables that pay their bills.This is where action, at the state and local level, can accelerate the inevitable.The lesson is clear: smart policy can clear barriers so Texans can benefit sooner.The MomentAfter 700,000 years of burning things for fuel, humanity is finally learning to power itself directly from the sun.That’s not just about climate. It’s about freedom, prosperity, and better technology.Bill McKibben’s new book, Here Comes the Sun, captures this moment

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com🎧 Listen to the first 15+ minutes for free, and if you’re a paid subscriber and want to listen in Apple Podcasts or Spotify, just connect your private Substack feed. Here is the a link with step-by-step instructions. You can also hear the full episode in Substack; just make sure you’re logged in with the email linked to your subscription.Texas’ retail electricity market was built to be a model for the world. When the state restructured its power sector in 1999, the idea was straightforward: unleash innovation, empower customers, and let competition drive costs down.More than two decades later, the reality is mixed. Texans enjoy more choice than anywhere else in the US — and some of those choices are great — but too often, customers are steered toward gimmicky plans with hidden fees instead of real value.On this episode of the Energy Capital Podcast, I talk with Nick Chaset, CEO of Octopus Energy US, about why the market isn’t reaching its full potential, how Octopus is trying to change that, and what policymakers can do to deliver a system that actually works for people. The Stakes for TexasElectricity consumption has gone from 400 terawatt-hours four years ago to nearly 500 TWh this year, a 25% jump. Peak demand hit 85 gigawatts in 2023 and 2024, up from 75 GW just a few years ago.We’ve built new generation to meet that growth, mostly solar and storage, but the way we price and sell electricity hasn’t kept pace. Most Texans are still on outdated plans that don’t reflect when power is abundant or scarce, driving up costs for everyone.

In this week’s Energy Capital Podcast, I revisit my recent article, None of the Above, with added commentary. Please give it a listen and let me know what you think in the comments.All of the Above vs. None of the AboveFor years, U.S. energy policy has been framed as “all of the above.” No red or blue electrons, just building what works.The new budget bill flips that script and is leaving closer to none of the above. The administration’s preferred resources aren’t available at scale:* Nuclear? Promising, but still 5-7 years, at least, from scaling* Gas? Facing massive supply chain bottlenecks, the world’s biggest turbine manufacturer only produces ~20 GW per year, globally.* Coal? No amount of weird nostalgia will changes its costs and health impacts.* Renewables and storage? The only sources growing fast enough to meet demand if they’re not strangled by new red tape.Blocking wind, solar, and batteries takes away most of what’s getting built. So where will the new power for AI come from if not from renewables and storage?AI’s Power Hunger Meets a Grid BottleneckThe White House’s own AI Action Plan says it plainly: “We must harness the full power of American innovation.” But there’s no details on how to harness enough electricity to make it happen.Meanwhile, AI developers are already building massive projects like Stargate in Abilene, a facility that will need 1.2 GW of power at launch and grow to 5 GW. For perspective: that’s more than the peak load of Austin, the 11th largest city in the U.S.How are they powering it? With a mix of wind, storage, and “incremental gas.” It’s pictured below.The market is showing us the path forward. Will policymakers follow?The Clock Is TickingEIA projects Texas demand will grow 14% in 2026 (see below). Nationally, data centers and electrification are set to drive historic load growth. Without new renewables and storage, we face higher prices, weaker reliability, and missed economic opportunities… just as China adds 400 GW of clean energy in a single year.We don’t have 5–7 years to wait for next-gen nuclear. We don’t have a supply chain ready to churn out additional gigawatts of gas turbines overnight. We have renewables and storage. Or we will not have enough to win the AI race.There’s Still a Way ForwardHere’s the good news: Developers can still add a lot of power in the next few years — if Treasury issues clear guidance and lets projects use existing credits before they expire. Congress already wrote this into law. The administration just needs to get out of the way.And yes, we should plan for what happens after credits expire. Permitting reform. Smarter integration of flexible loads. More diversified generation. But first, we have to stop kneecapping the solutions that are already working.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com/subscribe

This podcast is on YouTube with Graphs Congress’ new budget bill is an energy earthquake. It could wipe out tens of gigawatts of energy production, just as we’re experiencing load growth unlike anything since the 1960’s. It will drive power bills higher for families and factories, and give China the upper hand in the race for 21st century economic supremacy.To understand in more detail the impacts of the federal budget bill, this week on the Energy Capital Podcast, I talked with Dan O’Brien, senior modeling analyst at Energy Innovation. His team modeled what this bill really means for Texas and the numbers should stop us in our tracks. If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you know I’ve warned about this moment for months. Now, the data is here. It’s worse than we thought. We were on a path to energy abundance and we’re about to get energy scarcity including increased risk of blackouts and much higher electric bills.From Ramp to Cliff: What This Bill Actually DoesHere’s what Congress passed:* Ends clean energy tax credits abruptly. No glide path, no transition, just a cliff.* Imposes impossible project timelines that most developers can’t meet.I’ve written before about how this creates scarcity, not abundance (Energy Scarcity). We’re pulling the cheapest, fastest-growing resources off the table while demand is surging. That’s a recipe for higher prices and weaker reliability.And make no mistake: this isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s happening right when Texas has proven that solar and storage are great for reliability and affordability.The Modeling: 77 GW GoneDan’s modeling tells the story:* 77 gigawatts of lost clean energy in Texas, including over 50 gigawatts of solar and over 20 gigawatts of wind)* Only 2 gigawatts of additional gas* Household power bills up $400–$500 a year* Industrial energy costs up 50%* Tens of billions in lost rural tax revenuePut that in perspective: ERCOT’s entire summer peak is about 85 gigawatts. This bill wipes out nearly that much future clean power before it’s even built.These numbers aren’t isolated. Princeton’s REPEAT Project and Columbia’s Climate Knowledge Initiative show the same trend: abruptly ending credits doesn’t save money. It costs money—because you’re replacing cheap renewables with expensive alternatives, or worse, with nothing at all.Demand Is Exploding, So Why Are We Pulling Back?At the same time, Texas demand is skyrocketing. From 2021 to 2025, Texas has experience 6% year-over-year growth, the fastest since the 1960s. AI data centers, crypto, and industrial electrification are all plugging in at once.And here’s the kicker: the resources meeting that demand surge aren’t gas or coal. They’re wind, solar, and batteries. They’re 92% of what’s been added since 2021. In the first half of 2025, wind and solar made up 40% of ERCOT’s generation mix. Batteries are breaking records almost monthly, keeping the grid balanced during extreme heat and sudden shifts.ERCOT calculated summer energy emergency risk dropped from 16% to under 1% in one year, because of solar and storage. We have the data. We have the results. So why are we sabotaging it?The Human Side: Jobs and Rural TexasThe energy sector is one of the largest drivers of job growth in Texas. These are real people—60,000 Texans working in wind, solar, and storage, including 6,000 veterans. It’s rural school districts balancing their budgets with wind and solar tax base and farmers and ranchers keeping their land in their families for another generation. It’s welders, electricians, and manufacturers in counties that haven’t seen this level of investment in decades.Global Stakes: China’s Electrostate MomentZoom out. While we’re cutting our legs out from under us, China is sprinting ahead. Last year, they added 400 GW of clean energy, several Texases worth of power. Last month, they put in 90 gigawatts of solar. The Financial Times calls them the first “electrostate.”The U.S.? We added 60 GW in 2024. And now we’re debating LNG power plants that don’t exist. As I wrote in Energy Submission: this isn’t energy dominance. It’s energy surrender.If we abandon clean energy leadership now, we’re not just risking higher bills—we’re giving away the 21st century.There’s Still Time: Ramp, Don’t CliffI’m not arguing for permanent subsidies. We should phase them out, but smartly, with predictability. A ramp-down avoids price shocks, keeps manufacturing momentum, and protects rural tax bases while we scale what’s next.We’ve already proven the formula: reliability up, prices down, emissions falling. It’s not theoretical. It’s working. And throwing it away overnight isn’t policy, it’s ideology.The Bottom LineThe Texas grid is stronger than it’s ever been, because of solar and storage. That’s not my opinion; that’s ERCOT’s own data. Reliability is improving, costs are falling, and we’re finally catching up to the energy future the rest of the world is racing toward.This bill reverses that progress. It’s a choice between abundance

In May 2016, a wildfire ripped through Fort McMurray, the heart of Canada’s tar sands and bitumen mining region, with a speed and intensity unlike anything firefighters had seen before. It created its own weather. And it triggered the largest evacuation in Canadian history, which had to happen within mere hours.But this fire wasn’t just a freak event. It was a warning of more to come. Since then, Texas experienced its biggest wildfire ever — the Smokehouse Creek Fire — in 2024. On the latest episode of the Energy Capital Podcast, I talked with John Vaillant, author of Fire Weather: On the Front Lines of a Burning World, to unpack what happened in Fort McMurray and why it matters more than ever today.A City Built for Oil, Burning on OilFort McMurray exists to extract bitumen — a heavy, tar-like form of oil that’s mined, not drilled. The scale is staggering. It’s one of the largest fossil fuel reserves on Earth, and the city’s infrastructure, economy, and identity are built around it.John explains how the very thing that built Fort McMurray also made it vulnerable. Warming temperatures. Drier forests. Flammable building materials. More people living in high-risk zones. A city that was a tinderbox.Why This Story Hits Close to HomeTexas is no stranger to extreme heat and fast-moving fire.The Fort McMurray fire was one of the first modern wildfires to force a major oil-producing region to confront the new physics of our climate.But it wasn’t the last.In the episode, we talk about:* The almost unimaginable intensity of modern wildfires* the Lucretius Problem: the worst or biggest hurricane, flood, fire, etc. is not the worst or biggest possible* parallels between Fort McMurray and Texas suburbs near the WUI (wildland-urban interface)* Why we need to rethink infrastructure, building codes, and land use to have a chance at resilience in the face of extreme fire weatherThis is one of the most powerful stories we’ve featured — and one of the most important. Thanks for checking it outThis work would not be possible without your support. This episode of the Energy Capital Podcast is free, but paid subscribers get access to select episodes, including this one on the future of advanced nuclear reactors with Matt Loszak, as well as Grid Roundups, the full archives, special presentations, Reading and Podcast Picks, and more. If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, please become one today. Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 02:00 – The Fort McMurray Fire* 04:00 – Fort McMurray’s economy is based solely on a fossil fuel: bitumen* 07:00 – The context of the Fort McMurray fire* 10:00 – The physics of modern fires: radiant heat of 900 degrees * 13:00 – The toll on firefighters* 14:30 – The megawatt equivalent of a wildfire: “this now is what fire is capable of”* 16:30 – Fires now create their own weather: pryocumulonimbus clouds* 19:00 – The Lucretius Problem and discontinuity* 22:30 – The connection between monster firestorms and floods and other extreme weather events * 26:00 – Similarities between Texas and Alberta* 27:30 – The Texas legislative session and flood response, adaptation* 29:00 – Examples of effective adaptation: “defensible space”* 32:00 – Texas wildlife risk and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI)* 37:00 – Greenhouse gas levels are higher by far than at any time in human history* 40:00 – The American Petroleum Institute’s policy reversal* 44:30 – Opportunities for business and industry from reducing emissions* 46:00 – Who’s leading the race for the future of energy? * 49:00 – Could Texas lead the way?* 51:00 – Final Thoughts & A Path ForwardResources* Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World by John Vaillant* The Fires Sweeping Across Texas Offer a Terrifying Warning, New York Times Op-ed by John Vaillant* CBC documentary: Fort Mac Fire: Rogue Earth* The Fire Age by Stephen Pyne * Ladies and Gentlemen, the Northeast Is Burning, New York Times Op-ed by John Vaillant* The Fires Sweeping Across Texas Offer a Terrifying Warning, NYT Op-ed by John Vaillant * Mark Carney should understand better than anyone why Canada is burning. Here’s how he can change course, The Star Op-ed by John Vaillant* Steiner Ranch neighborhood gets second emergency evacuation route | FOX 7 Austin* Texas Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal* California Burning by Katherine BluntTranscriptDoug Lewin (00:04.984): Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. I'm your host, Doug Lewin. My guest this week was John Vaillant. John wrote a book that really struck me, and as soon as I read it, I knew I was going to invite him to be a guest on the Energy Capital Podcast. It's called Fire Weather: On the Frontlines of a Burning World, and I cannot recommend this book highly enough. It was an absolutely fantastic read. It was the story of a fire that went through For

Either the Texas grid is highly reliable, or the sky is falling.Spoiler alert: bet against the latter.A June report from the Texas Reliability Entity (which has federal statutory responsibility to report on Texas’ grid risks) shows that the ERCOT grid is increasingly reliable. That’s mostly because of solar and battery storage additions to the state’s energy portfolio.It also directly contradicts a report from President Trump’s Department of Energy, released about a week later, which said Texas faces a severe and shocking likelihood of outages every year — including this year.Meanwhile, in the real world, ERCOT expects to approach record peak demand next week. Again, thanks to the state’s booming solar and storage resources, ERCOT forecasts that we’ll have 35 more gigawatts than we need when demand peaks.What gives?Solar and Storage Is Powering the GridIn its report, the Texas Reliability Entity writes:The Region’s reliability performance remains strong while navigating [many] challenges. … The Region’s resources managed extended high summer peak periods in 2024 (as in recent years), helped by new solar generation and energy storage. Annual energy production increased (alongside renewable generation output and peak renewable penetration levels) to meet projected peak loads. As a result, the Region did not experience any Energy Emergency Alerts related to insufficient responsive reserves in 2024 [emphasis added].Yes, no matter what anti-energy politicians or activists say or believe, Texas’ abundant solar and battery storage resources are helping meet our booming demand. But don’t just take the word of the entity whose one job is to ensure Texas grid reliability …ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the ERCOT Board just last month, “The risk of emergency events during [peak demand] periods is shrinking, dropping from over 10 percent a year ago to under 1 percent.”Vegas — again, the CEO of ERCOT — also said, “The peak in the summer, of course, is in the afternoon at the peak heat, when air conditioning load is at its highest. Solar energy is very well suited to help support that.”And the Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, Thomas Gleeson, said much the same late last year: “Solar and storage are key for reliability in this state,” Gleeson said. “We need them to be successful.”He added that solar and storage “saved us this summer.” He was speaking of 2024; it’s almost certain to be true this summer as well.Yet President Trump’s Department of Energy reached a very different conclusion – thanks to deeply flawed assumptions and methodology.What the DOE got wrongFirst and foremost, the DOE assumes that only “Tier 1” energy generation projects will be built over the next six years. These are projects that are so far along that they’re almost certain to be completed. Texas has about 29 gigawatts-worth of them (see graphic below).The thing is, Texas has added 50% more than that to the ERCOT grid in just the last four years.There are 112 gigawatts-worth of projects — nearly four times as much as is in Tier 1 — in Tiers 2 and 3, just waiting to graduate. The DOE assumes that none of that will get built.Unfortunately, the DOE report comes on the heels of the catastrophic new federal budget law (the apparently unironic “Big, Beautiful Bill”) that was designed, especially with subsequent executive actions, to hobble renewable energy projects in Texas and around the country.Maybe that’s the reason for the DOE’s pessimism about the Texas grid: it’s like a doctor mocking the health of a patient after cutting off the patient’s medicine.The DOE report seems to describe a state of energy scarcity that the administration and Congress have created. Given the regulatory uncertainty they’ve injected into the process, a shortage of Tier 2 and Tier 3 projects might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.The graphic below is from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC’s) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, published in December last year. It shows more than 100 gigawatts of generation in Tiers 2 and 3. It also shows steadily rising reserve margins — the amount of supply in excess of demand represented in the blue bars — as additional Tier 2 and 3 capacity is brought online.But because the President has directed the Treasury Department to make it as hard as possible to qualify for tax credits, many of these projects won’t get built to service rapidly rising load growth.They’re literally creating energy scarcity in place of energy abundance.What We Talk About When We Talk About CoalWhy would the administration make such a big bet on such dubious numbers?The clear implication is that officials are scrounging for excuses to force inefficient coal and gas plants to keep running, no matter how bad they are for consumers and grids. As Princeton energy modeler Wilson Ricks told Canary Media: “This report seems designed from the ground up to justify keeping coal plants open with emergency orders.”Of course, old coal plants

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.comIn this episode of the Energy Capital Podcast, I sat down with Matt Loszak, co-founder and CEO of Aalo Atomics, a startup based in Austin, Texas, that’s reimagining how we build nuclear energy. 🎧 Listen to the first 15+ minutes for free, and if you’re a paid subscriber and want to listen in Apple Podcasts or Spotify, just connect your private Substack …

We’re on the verge of one of the biggest energy shifts in decades: the increasing use of demand side resources.They’re often referred to as Virtual Power Plants, or VPPs. Add together thousands of rooftop solar installations and home batteries and you reach levels of power equal to medium sized power plants. They add power capacity, can provide key grid support in ancillary services, and give consumers uninterrupted power during outages of any kind.Unfortunately, the budget bill passed yesterday by the Senate would make this much harder. (We talked about the bill and its implications but we recorded on June 23 before we knew how bad it would actually be.)VPPs are already working in Texas, and started to gain momentum. This week on the Energy Capital podcast, I spoke with Blake Richetta, CEO of Sonnen USA, and one of the most forward-thinking leaders in the clean energy world. We broke down what’s happening in Texas, why the rest of the country isn’t paying attention, and what’s at stake if we get this wrong.The Big Idea: Solar Alone Isn’t Enough. Batteries Make It Work.Blake lays it out clearly: The economics of rooftop solar by itself don’t work very well. You need a battery to make the math work.At midday, solar power is often so abundant it’s not worth much on wholesale markets. But during the evening — when people are getting home, turning on ACs, cooking, watching TV and the sun is setting — prices rise.A battery allows you to store cheap solar and sell it when it matters most. As Blake put it, that allows you to shape load perfectly and inject energy optimally. It’s not only a savings strategy; it’s also a boon to grid reliability.And if thousands of homes do this together? You’ve got a power plant, one that’s already connected, decentralized and closest to load, and can scale to solve some really difficult locational problems on the grid.What’s a VPP, and Why Are Texas Homeowners Getting One for No Upfront Cost?This isn’t theoretical. This is live in Texas.Sonnen and their Texas partner, SOLRITE, have already deployed over 3,000 residential batteries into a fully operational Virtual Power Plant. Here’s what makes it different:* A zero-upfront-cost offer for homeowners* 40 kWh, 9.6kW battery storage system: bigger than what most homes get* A locked-in energy rate (~12¢/kWh with a small escalator), generally lower than market prices* The ability to participate in grid services without even noticingTexans get resilience and savings. The grid gets flexibility and stability. The model works.Key Takeaways* Batteries unlock the real value of solar: economically and operationally.* Texans want energy independence and resilience to extreme weather events, and this model delivers it.* Competitive markets enable this kind of innovation in Texas in a way other states can’t match.* The grid gets stronger when consumers get stronger.* The President and Congress are poised to significantly slow down what Texans are doing.What Comes NextSonnen and SOLRITE are betting big on a Texas-led VPP revolution. But there’s still work to do:* Unlocking distribution-level grid value (like locational value and deferred infrastructure costs)* Expanding ADER pilot (aggregated distributed resource) programs* Supporting U.S.-based battery manufacturing to reduce foreign dependency* Ensuring that federal policy doesn’t kill the momentum just as it starts to scale.Texans remember what it feels like when the power goes out. VPPs offer a smarter, cleaner, more resilient future, without needing to sacrifice freedom or reliability.We finally have the technology.We finally have the market model.Now we need the political will to help Texans strengthen themselves and strengthen the grid, too.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps00:00 – Introduction03:00 – How Sonnen helped develop Virtual Power Plants and paired solar w/ storage06:00 – Using Texas’ competitive market to make VPPs available for $0 upfront cost12:00 – Consumers’ cost to get a VPP through a retailer and a “VPA”17:00 – How VPP economics work for Sonnen and its partners (hint: it’s the batteries)19:30 – The market is sending signals for “firming” right now22:00 – The resiliency benefits of solar & storage, advantages over generators26:00 – Grid following vs. grid forming batteries for backup power32:00 – ADER pilot in Texas, grid services from VPPs33:30 – Fundamental goal: shape load perfectly and inject energy optimally37:00 – The potential to monetize the distribution value of VPPs and ADERs41:00 – How Distribution System Planning using DERs could lower costs45:00 – Tapping into locational and temporal value of distributed energy51:00 – Why some utilities make the leap to VPPs and tap the value of DERs55:00 – How vertically integrated utilities in Texas could benefit from VPPs57:30 – Implications of federal budget bill on residential DERs (as of June 23)1:02:00 – How market value can, in time, replace tax credits1:03:30 – sonnen’s manufacturing in Americ

Anti-energy crusaders have a lot of facts wrong. I’ll break that down in this video. They’re also personally insulting the hard-working men and women in the renewable energy industry, calling solar jobs “fentanyl jobs.” They should apologize to the hard-working Americans helping to make our grid stronger every day.The ERCOT CEO told the Board earlier this week that solar and storage has strengthened our grid. Our risk of an energy emergency went from 16% one year to ago to 0.5% this year “because of the contributions of new resources on the grid.” Those resources are solar & storage. I show all of this in the video, which you can also watch on YouTube. I also covered a couple of the biggest problems haters of renewable energy and storage have: (1) They can’t credibly deny the benefits of renewables and storage, and (2) Where’s the alternative power going to come from if you limit renewables and storage?We have rising demand. If Congress lessens supply, what happens to prices?I wrote recently about how abruptly ending the clean energy tax credits will hurt our efforts to win the AI race and is actually Energy Submission to China. I also wrote about how short-sighted energy policy will raise costs, causing Energy Inflation for consumers of all kinds. The best way to handle the clean energy tax credits is a predictable ramp down of the tax credits — not a cliff.What You’ll Learn in This Episode:* How Texas slashed outage risk by 95% thanks to solar and battery storage* Why gas is not the fastest way to add power even though some people continue to falsely insist it is* How fossil fuel companies are using renewables to cut costs* The simple math of supply, demand, and rising prices without a credible backup plan📺 Watch on YouTube:Why It Matters:* Demand is up 25% since 2021: rapid growth not seen since the ’60s* Without tax credits, supply tightens, prices go up, and grid reliability suffers* Gas turbines aren’t coming fast enough, nuclear is years awaySeriously, over the next 4-5 years, where is the power going to come from if not from wind, solar, and storage? It’s not a rhetorical question and they can’t answer it. They’ve said LNG power plants, but those don’t exist. They’ve said nuclear but that’s 2030’s at best. They’ve said gas plants, but good luck getting a turbine.Final ThoughtIf policymakers want to kill clean energy incentives, they need a plan to replace the power. Because without one, consumers will pay more, grid reliability will suffer, and elected officials will face a backlash.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com/subscribe

This is the read-aloud version of my June 26 article, now on YouTube & the Energy Capital PodcastI don’t usually record readings of my articles, but I made an exception for this one.If Congress passes the budget bill as is, it would spike energy costs for families and businesses and cause serious economic harm.So I sat down and read the piece aloud with a few added thoughts and commentary as I went.Watch on YouTubeRead the original article hereWhat you’ll get in the episode:* Why “leveling the playing field” leaves out 100+ year old coal, oil, and gas subsidies (aren’t they mature industries at this point?)* How a $300 increase per household could be heading for your utility bills* What the real consequences of a 60-day cliff would be (I explain it in plain English)* Why this is really about consumers and voters, more than renewables, which will get built anyway, but they’ll cost more… which is probably why so many people oppose ending the clean energy tax credits.This is more than just a policy argument, it’s a warning. And a reminder that what Congress chooses in the next few days and weeks will show up on bills, ballots, and balance sheets.If you want to understand what’s at stake, and how we got here. Give it a listen.Thanks for being part of this.Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.texasenergyandpower.com/subscribe

The U.S. was finally catching up.After decades of watching solar manufacturing develop overseas, mostly in China, the Inflation Reduction Act gave domestic producers a fighting chance. Texas responded in a big way. New factories broke ground. OCI and its sister company, Mission Solar, prepared to launch a full supply chain operation in San Antonio, including the rare addition of cell manufacturing, one of the most critical (and missing) links in our solar economy.Now? All of it hangs in the balance.I sat down with Sabah Bayatli, President of OCI Energy, for one of the most urgent and clarifying conversations we’ve had on this podcast. If Congress moves forward with budget as it passed the House, it could wipe out hard-won progress in U.S. energy independence and kill manufacturing momentum.This is not only an energy and economic issue, but also a national security issue. We covered:What the IRA Actually Did for Solar ManufacturingBefore the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), manufacturers in the U.S. were forced to make short-term bets, never knowing if tax credits would last. That’s a terrible way to plan billion-dollar infrastructure investments. The IRA changed that. By giving developers and manufacturers a 10-year time horizon, it triggered a surge in U.S. supply chain planning.Sabah put it simply: You can’t invest in manufacturing without a longer time horizon.* The 45X tax credit provided per-unit production incentives.* Developers got extra credit for using U.S. made solar panels, creating demand.* Factories started popping up, especially in Texas, where low power prices make large-scale manufacturing viable.Now, that long-term signal is under threat.What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill” That Could Undo It AllSabah broke it down for us: the current House version of the bill would eliminate developer tax credits by 2028, with an abrupt cliff 60 days after enactment. And while the latest Senate version is slightly better, it’s still a cliff:* Full credit in 2025* Drops to 60% in 2026* 20% in 2027* Zero by 2028The manufacturing credit technically stays, but if developers lose the adders for domestic content, American manufacturers lose their market. DC’s Math Doesn’t Add UpEveryone agrees: the deficit matters. But what’s often missing in DC is that you can’t shrink your way out of the deficit, you have to grow out of it.Growth means:* Domestic manufacturing jobs* Local tax bases* Energy independence* Lower-cost powerI covered that in much greater depth here:Energy Capital is produced by ClarityForge Studios.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction & opening context* 01:45 – What is OCI Energy?* 03:30 – OCI’s origin story in San Antonio* 5:00 – The elephant in the room: the impact of the not-so-beautiful bill* 10:00 – Investment signals leading to solar module and solar cell manufacturing* 13:00 – Manufacturing tax credits (45X)* 15:00 – The need for low cost power to spur economic growth to lower the debt* 20:00 – Lost cost power in ERCOT is attracting manufacturing of all kinds* 23:00 – Supply chain issues across the power sector* 25:30 – The need for moderate, durable policymaking, gradual ramp of incentives* 31:00 – The retention of the manufacturing tax credit won’t necessarily help* 34:00 – Where panels used in America are manufactured (hint: not China)* 38:00 – The need to communicate national security implications* 41:00 – To grow our economy, and reduce our debt, we need a lot more power (see chart discussed in this segment in Resources section below)* 44:45 – How to design Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) provisions well* 52:00 – Texas policy and the recently concluded legislative session* 54:45 – Is there a future for solar and battery manufacturing in America?* 58:30 – What could the Senate do to grow American manufacturing* 1:00:30 – Final thoughts, closing remarksResourcesInformation about Sabah and OCI* OCI Energy* Mission Solar* The chart Sabah sent me after he read Energy Submission:Discussed in the Episode:‘City of San Antonio Solar Development Plan. April 2012. H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Dynamic Estimate). Congressional Budget Office (CBO).TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:05.426)The solar manufacturing renaissance in America, and particularly in Texas, is very much at risk as Congress considers a budget bill that would end solar incentives and clean energy manufacturing incentives. Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. I'm your host, Doug Lewin. My guest this week was Sabah Bayatli. He's the president of OCI Energy. OCI Energy is both an IP and a project developer throughout the U.S. installing solar and storage, but also a manufacturer through their sister company, Mission Solar. And Sabah told me that that manufacturing plant, which currently produces modules and was getting ready to expand to cell production with 800 Texas jobs, is at risk and will not proceed if the bill in Washington passes in its current form.We talked about that and a whole lot of other things both related to the bill, but

Texas is adding solar at a faster pace than any other state. Solar and storage are powering Texas’ manufacturing renaissance, creating jobs, and lowering customers’ bills; even the state’s oil and gas sector is an eager consumer of solar power.And renewables are also pumping tens of billions of dollars into local — mostly rural — economies in the form of landowner payments and tax payments. We’re on track to add another 8-10 gigawatts in 2025, after adding about that much in 2024.In this week’s episode, I sat down with Sean Gallagher, Senior Vice President of Policy at the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), and Daniel Giese, SEIA’s Director of State Affairs for Texas. We unpack the forces behind this record-breaking growth and what could help keep it going — as well as what could stop it in its tracks.The federal budget bill would cripple the boom. Texas is seeing historic levels of investment, in large part because of the 10-year certainty provided by the IRA. These tax credits are bringing down capital costs, reducing risk, enabling longer-term project planning, and driving investments in solar manufacturing.As Sean points out, this policy clarity has helped drive a wave of new solar and battery projects. And Texas is leading the pack, thanks to our land availability, pro-development bent, and robust demand growth.But the same projects that are thriving today could be lost tomorrow if federal tax policy changes too abruptly.Policy risk is rising. And it’s already hurting deployment.Federal tariffs. Delays in domestic manufacturing. A growing push in some counties to ban solar outright. It’s all adding up. SEIA recently reported that more than 5 GW of solar capacity in Texas was delayed or canceled just this spring due to trade policy and market uncertainty.Add in the threat of repealing or rolling back the IRA, and the fragility of this moment becomes clear. Developers aren’t panicking, but they are cautious. And that’s enough to slow the pace of deployment at exactly the wrong time.Storage is the backbone of reliability and we’re just getting started.Storage is no longer a “nice-to-have.” It’s essential. It’s one of the main reasons ERCOT’s summer grid outlook improved from a 12% chance of outages in 2023 to less than 1% this year.Daniel and Sean both emphasized how solar + storage is becoming the new standard and how distributed storage, especially, can help strengthen resilience while reducing strain on transmission.If Texas wants to keep growing solar and maintain reliability, batteries aren’t optional. They’re the glue that binds the new grid together.Final thoughtsThe clean energy transition is already underway, but the friction between policy and politics on the one hand and markets and technology on the other, is starting to slow it down.Texas has the fundamentals to lead the next chapter of America’s energy story: land, load, labor, and sun. But the national and state-level decisions we make in the next two years about policy, infrastructure, and transparency will determine whether we keep that lead or fall behind.This conversation with SEIA was timely given all the activity in Austin and Washington DC. Timestamps and relevent links are below.This was a free episode but your contributions support this podcast and the newsletter. If you’re already a subscriber, thank you! If you’re not yet a subscriber, please become one today and please recommend the pod to friends, family, and colleagues. The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 02:00 – Breaking down the recent Texas legislative session* 03:30 – Rural benefits of renewables, why some legislators vote against their districts* 07:00 – How Texas rates nationally on solar & storage* 8:30 – Solar’s meteoric rise in Texas* 11:00 – Good bills that passed in the recent legislative session* 13:30 – How industry supported bills addressing recycling, consumer protection* 15:45 – The federal budget bill and its potential impact on manufacturing* 18:00 – Data center and AI companies’ support for renewable energy* 20:00 – Without solar & storage, the economy will slow* 23:00 – Winning the competition w/ China for electricity supply chain dominance* 27:30 – The three incentives that support domestic manufacturing* 29:30 – The impacts of the budget bill on Texas* 34:00 – Grid operators and regulators say we need continued solar development* 37:00 – Where will tax credits go from here* 39:00 – Problems with the budget bill: abrupt end of tax credits instead of ramp and Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC)* 44:00 – Prospects for residential solar / distributed generation in Texas* 46:00 – Initiatives SEIA will be engaged with at the PUC* 48:00 – Support for solar power and SEIA’s call to action & how to get involved ResourcesGet Involved: Solar Powers AmericaSEIA Resources* Solar and Storage Industry Statement on P

On Wednesday, I published Energy Submission, a piece on how the U.S. is at risk of abandoning the battle for 21st economic supremacy as China accelerates its energy dominance. I recorded this podcast episode to go a little deeper into the consequences of the House-passed reconciliation bill and what we risk losing if we dismantle the tools driving the energy future. It’s available on YouTube with full charts and visualsEnergy isn’t just one issue among many, it’s a foundational issue. In what the IEA has dubbed the Age of Electricity, if we don’t have enough of it, we enter the economic race to power the future with one arm tied behind our backs. That’s what makes the House-passed budget reconciliation bill so dangerous: it guts the clean energy incentives that are powering our present and could power our future. It dismantles the Inflation Reduction Act’s momentum just as the world is moving into a new industrial era, one that will be defined by who has enough affordable electricity to fuel growth.Let’s zoom out.Globally, energy investment is booming. In 2024, $3 trillion was invested in energy. Two-thirds of that ($2 trillion) is going into clean power: wind, solar, nuclear, storage, and efficiency. Only $1 trillion is going into coal, oil, and gas. China, in particular, is accelerating at breakneck speed, building 277 gigawatts of solar in 2024 alone. To put that into perspective, that’s more clean energy in one year than the entire installed capacity of Texas’s grid (~180GW).Meanwhile, the U.S. is considering a bill that would eviscerate the progress we’ve made. It would slash the tax credits that have driven private investment into renewables, energy storage, and domestic manufacturing, just as that investment is beginning to deliver. More than 270 clean energy factories have been announced since the IRA passed. If this bill becomes law, many of them will be canceled outright.This isn’t theoretical. Projects are already being canceled in Texas due to market uncertainty. This bill pours cold water on an area where the U.S. has been gaining ground in manufacturing, jobs, and grid reliability.And it’s happening just as we’re entering a new age of electricity demand. AI data centers, robotics, industrial electrification, and electric vehicles are pushing power use higher than it’s been in decades. Even Elon Musk is warning that we could see electricity shortfalls by next year.You cannot meet 21st-century energy demand with 20th-century thinking. And yet, that's exactly what some policymakers are trying to do by doubling down on fossil fuel exports, suggesting "LNG power plants" (which aren’t a thing) are going to power our grids, and pretending we can drill our way to abundance while dismantling the tools that are actually scaling our grid.In fact, LNG export facilities consume massive amounts of power, up to 700 megawatts each. If you want to power exports and data centers, and still have enough for people to use in their homes, you need a vastly more flexible, modern grid.That means a diversified portfolio: wind, solar, storage, gas, geothermal, advanced nuclear, and demand-side solutions. It means better transmission planning, smarter markets, and policies that attract investment rather than repel it.This isn’t just about clean energy anymore. Clean energy is now simply energy. It’s about competitiveness, reliability, affordability and national security.While we debate whether clean energy tax credits are “too generous,” China is becoming the world’s first electrostate, a nation that doesn’t just consume energy, but manufactures and exports the infrastructure to produce it. China isn’t waiting for the market to figure it out. They’re building fast, and they’re controlling and locking up global supply chains along the way.The U.S. still has the innovation advantage. We lead in software, in AI, in energy entrepreneurship. But without enough power to run it all, that advantage becomes a bottleneck. As David Friedberg put it recently, energy abundance is necessary for every other kind of abundance. Without it, AI, biotech, and automation all stagnate.This reconciliation bill would deepen that bottleneck and cut off any hope of growing our way out of our deficit.We cannot cut our way to energy dominance. We have to build.If you care about growth, if you care about leadership, if you care about national security, you should care about energy policy. And if you care about energy policy, this bill should concern you.We need the Senate to fix what the House broke. The tools are there. The economics are clear. The stakes couldn’t be higher.Timestamps* 00:00 – Introduction* 01:30 – China’s energy dominance by the numbers* 03:00 – What is an Electrostate? China's strategy to be the first* 04:30 – Some Republicans’ preference to surrender clean energy dominance to China* 06:00 – Doug Burgum on the All-In Podcast* 09:00 – Debunking the “LNG Power Plant” Myth* 14:00 – All-In Podcast: If the Senate fix the House bill,

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.texasenergyandpower.comThe Texas legislative session just wrapped. As always, energy was front and center. And once again, there were sweeping efforts to pass bills that would limit energy development in Texas.🎧 Listen to the first 25+ minutes for free, and if you’re a paid subscriber and want to listen in Apple Podcasts or Spotify, just connect your private Substack feed. H…

With just ten days left in the legislative session, a lot of attention is (rightfully) focused on bad bills. But some lawmakers are pushing forward thoughtful, future-focused energy policy and Chairman Drew Darby is at the forefront.For this episode, I sat down with Chairman Darby, a West Texas Republican and Chairman of the House Energy Resources Committee, to talk about what an energy-secure Texas really looks like and how we get there.We covered a wide range of topics: from his 50-year career in oil and gas law, including getting started during the oil crisis of the 1970s, to the centrality of energy not just to his district but for the whole state, to what it’ll take to build a grid that keeps up with the state’s growth.Chairman Darby makes a strong case for all-of-the-above energy policy. Solar, wind, and batteries? Absolutely. Oil and gas? Also yes. Nuclear, geothermal, demand flexibility, transmission upgrades? Yes, yes, yes, and yes. As Darby, a former UT football player under legendary Coach Darrell Royal, put it: if you want to win, you need a full team, not just one kind of player on the field.We talked about:* Why solar + storage projects are already transforming his district, including one project near his hometown that charges and discharges batteries up to six times a day* How renewable projects support school districts, landowners, and local governments in rural Texas* The dangers of the many anti-energy development bills this session* How House Bill 3069 would help fix the transmission approval process and reduce costly congestion across the ERCOT grid* Why House Bill 3970 and Senate Bill 6 offer complementary approaches to large flexible loads and why Texas needs a clear path forward now* How abundant energy, including small modular nuclear reactors, can help solve our water challenges* And what it means to be a pragmatic conservative working across geographies and many other divides to put solutions above ideologyWe also discussed the danger of overregulation and the need for regulatory certainty: Do we really believe in market forces or don’t we?”If you care about grid reliability, economic development, or the future of rural Texas, this conversation is worth your time. Chairman Darby brings experience, insight, and a level-headed approach that’s too often missing from the energy debate.If you enjoyed this episode, please share it and consider becoming a paid subscriber to get access to full archives, Grid Roundups, paid-only podcast episodes, and more. Timestamps0:00 Intro3:00 Chairman Darby’s background, West Texas roots6:00 The boom-bust of the oil industry during his career8:00 The fracking revolution making the Permian the center of the oil-producing world10:00 The rise of renewables in Texas, particularly in West Texas, and12:00 Using the best of each resource, integrating diverse resources and getting the most out of each14:00 Creating a good investment environment for Texas15:30 Texas’ water problems and how abundant energy can help solve them18:00 Treating “produced water” and the symbiotic relationship with oil and renewables23:00 Examples of renewable and storage projects in Chairman Darby’s district, benefits to landowners27:00 Fixing Texas’ transmission planning and construction to avoid reliability problems30:00 Reducing congestion charges, currently $2 billion annually, “generic transmission constraints”31:30 Geothermal in Texas using techniques from the oil and gas industry34:45 Large load flexibility and blending SB 6 and HB 3970 together38:00 Saying “yes, if” to large loads, reducing energy peaks, filling in energy valleys41:00 Do we believe in markets or not?43:00 Finding common ground and solutions47:30 Pragmatism over ideologyResourcesEnergy Capital Podcast Episodes* Texas' Load Growth Challenges – And Opportunities, with Arushi Sharma Frank* How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance with Tyler Norris* Geothermal’s Moment with Jamie Beard* Drilling for Geothermal Power and Storage with Cindy Taff * New Nuclear in Texas, with Doug Robison and Dr. Rusty Towell* Rural Texans Speak Against Senate Bill 819The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter Grid Round Ups* Large Loads at the Lege – Grid Roundup #40* Peak Performance – Grid Roundup #58* ERCOT CEO: “We Need All Resources” – Grid Roundup #56Related Technologies* Texas Geothermal Energy Alliance* Texas Nuclear Alliance* ERCOT Transmission Planning Reports* ERCOT Load Forecast Dashboard* DOE Office of Geothermal TechnologiesReports and Analysis* Aurora Energy Research – Renewables Restriction Study* Aurora Energy Research – Demand Flexibility StudyLegislation Mentioned* House Bill 3069 (Transmission Planning)* House Bill 3970 (Large Load Interconnection)* Senate Bill 6 (Large Load Reliability)* Senate Bill 2627 (Texas Energy Fund)* House Bill 3240 (Geothermal Policy Council)* Senate Bill 1656 (Permitting Reform)TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:05.484) Welcome to the Energy Capital Podcast. I'm your host, Doug Lewin. Humans

AI data centers. Semiconductor fabs. Oil and gas electrification. Desalination. Rising population. Texas is booming and it needs massive amounts of electricity to fuel that growth.We’re already using more power than ever. ERCOT projects demand will grow by 60,000 megawatts in just five years. That would be like adding the current peak demand of California on top of Texas. But instead of clearing the path for new energy development, some would slow it down — and slow down the economy with it.This week, I spoke with Glenn Hamer, President and CEO of the Texas Association of Business, about why that’s such a dangerous idea and what we should be doing instead.We covered a lot: AI, nuclear, oil and gas, battery storage, export economics, and why Texas must build all forms of energy faster, not slower. But at the center of our conversation was this core truth: You can’t grow an economy if you’re starving it of power.Glenn made the case that Texas has always led on energy of all kinds. Republican leaders including George W. Bush and Rick Perry helped launch Texas’s wind and solar boom. Now we need to keep going with an all-of-the above strategy that includes solar, wind, gas, nuclear, geothermal, and batteries all playing a role.He also talked about the economic impact renewables have had in rural Texas, particularly in areas with no oil or gas, which now has another source of income: wind and solar leases. TAB’s study with Aurora Energy Research shows what’s at risk. Blocking new renewable projects would raise electricity prices and increase the chances of rolling outages.And it’s not just about supply. Texas is also leaving money on the table by underinvesting in demand-side innovation. In a second TAB study, Aurora found:* $87/year in savings per household, even for non-participants in demand response* Over $400/year in savings for households that switch from resistance heating to heat pumps* Significant peak reduction potential from data centers and other large energy usersThere’s a reason the oil and gas industry, manufacturers, chemical producers, and data centers are all calling for more supply and smarter policy. Texas doesn’t have a red-versus-blue energy divide, we have a build-versus-block problem.We also talked about the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence. Glenn made a powerful point: AI is a national security issue. If we want to win the AI race, and we must, we need to power that innovation here in the U.S., and especially in Texas. There are already grids in other states telling data centers “don’t come here.” If we pass restrictive energy bills, Texas could be next.AI data centers require massive, stable energy supplies. The only way to deliver that is through scale and speed. That means yes to an all-of-the-above energy strategy. Texas is one of the few states that can handle this level of growth. But only if we keep saying yes.Texas became the energy capital of the world by being the best place to build. Let’s not become the place that starts saying no.📩 If you liked the episode, share it and consider becoming a paid subscriber. You’ll get access to all full episodes, Grid Roundups, and more.Timestamps00:00 – Introduction02:45 – Start of interview: Glenn joins, overview of TAB03:30 – Texas energy leadership: oil, gas, wind, solar, batteries05:30 – Bipartisan legacy of renewables in Texas07:00 – Economic benefits of renewables for rural Texas09:00 – Energy for AI, semiconductors, and oil & gas electrification12:00 – Gas turbine shortage, and how batteries are changing the grid15:00 – Energy growth vs. Texas’ resistance to regulatory overreach17:00 – AI, national security & innovation as core drivers19:00 – Balanced advocacy: renewables, nuclear, batteries, geothermal20:00– Data center growth in Texas & energy infrastructure22:30– LNG exports & cost premiums for low-emission gas26:00 – Desalination & energy, innovation & leadership27:30 – Aurora studies on renewables and demand side management29:30 – Demand-side innovation & response31:30 – House Bill 14 & SMRs: nuclear development as opportunity33:00 – Geothermal innovation & bipartisan support34:00 – Demand-side efficiency and reducing energy waste36:00 – Tariffs, and economic ripple effects, need to lower energy costs37:30 – Support from industrial, tech & business groups38:30 – National security & AI race with China41:00 – Regulatory overreach risks & broad support for energy development 43:00 – Final thoughts: energy export & coalition buildingResourcesGlenn Hamer & TAB* Texas Association of Business* Glenn Hamer on LinkedIn* Glenn’s newsletter on Linkedin: Ham[m]er TimeReports & Studies* Aurora Energy Research – Impact of Restricting Renewables in Texas* Aurora Energy Research – Demand Flexibility and Energy Efficiency Study* Federal Reserve Energy Survey – First Quarter, 2025Related Energy Capital Podcasts* How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance (Tyler Norris Pod) * A Conservative Case for Clean Energy* Geothermal

Note: The Podcast Recording with Graphs is Here.What would happen if Texas started turning away new wind and solar projects or even retiring some of the capacity we already have?That’s not merely a hypothetical. It’s what several bills that have passed the Texas Senate aim to do. And according to new modeling from Aurora Energy Research, the consequences could be severe: higher prices, increased risk of rolling outages, and weaker reliability at the very moment we need the grid to do more.I sat down with Olivier Beaufils, Head of US Central at Aurora, and a returning guest on the podcast, to walk through the results of their latest two studies. We discussed what it means for Texans: whether you’re a policymaker, utility, industrial operator, or just trying to keep your power bill manageable.In the first study, Aurora modeled scenarios where Texas slows or blocks the addition of new solar and wind. The findings are stark:* By 2035, power prices rise 14% compared to a business-as-usual scenario* By 2050, prices jump 38%* A conservative forecast still shows 400,000–600,000 homes losing power in summer peak conditions due to 2–3 gigawatts of load shed* Delays in thermal generation supply chains mean replacement capacity can’t come online fast enough to close the gapThese results don’t even account for the possible retirement of existing renewables, which SB 715 would accelerate. The second study focused on demand-side solutions like residential demand response, data center flexibility, and energy efficiency upgrades (especially replacing resistance heating with heat pumps). These are often overlooked, but for those looking to strengthen the grid they can dramatically reduce stress on the grid, while saving Texans money.Key findings:* Demand response could save every Texan household $87 per year in conservative estimates, even if they don’t participate* Industrial customers could save $2 million annually under a moderate demand response program* Replacing resistance heat with heat pumps could save households over $400/year * In a Winter Storm Elliott-style event, widespread heat pump adoption could eliminate up to 6 GW of potential load shed; the impact would be bigger in a Winter Storm Uri-like eventTaken together, these studies paint a clear picture: A more diverse, more flexible, and more efficient grid is also a more affordable and more reliable one. We need more of everything, but especially the resources that are fast and scalable.I’m grateful to Olivier and the Aurora team for bringing rigorous analysis to a debate too often shaped by ideology or misinformation. These are exactly the kinds of conversations we need to be having as Texas faces record-breaking load growth and increasingly extreme weather.If you enjoy the podcast, consider subscribing and sharing with a friend or colleague. It helps more people find these conversations and stay informed on what’s really happening with Texas energy.Timestamps00:00 – Introduction & guest reintroduction (Olivier Brochu, Aurora)02:04 – Start of Study 1: Limiting solar and wind in ERCOT06:00 – Supply chain risk & reliability impact of throttling renewables11:00 – Load shedding during heatwaves13:30 – Wholesale power prices and affordability under constraint scenarios16:30 – Impact on customer bills and total system costs20:30 – Clarification: this is not a bill analysis, but a scenario study21:30 – Start of Study 2: Demand-side flexibility & efficiency24:30 – Demand response from residential vs. commercial/industrial users29:00 – Data centers, system peaks & the synergy with residential flexibility32:00 – Price suppression benefits of demand response34:30 – Indirect savings: how even non-participants benefit37:00 – Addressing resistance heating and the efficiency potential41:00 – Heat pumps as a system reliability solution44:30 – System-wide benefits & mitigating winter risk46:30 – Efficiency = cost savings + resilience50:00 – Final thoughts: all-of-the-above strategy & public/private collaboration52:00 – Outro & where to find Aurora’s workResourcesAurora & Team* Aurora Website* Olivier Beaufils - Linkedin * Previous Podcast with Energy CapitalReports & Modeling* Aurora Energy Research: Restricting Renewables Study* Aurora Energy Research: Demand Flexibility Study* ERCOT’s Load Growth ForecastYouTube Channel for DougLewinEnergyMedia Coverage* Houston Chronicle on Anti-Renewables Legislation* Utility Dive on Aurora Modeling - Texas Renewables RestrictionRelated Posts on DougLewin.com* A Time for Choosing (on Senate Bill 819)* The Texas Senate Is a Threat to U.S. Energy Security (Senate Bill 388)* Another Anti-Energy, Anti-Growth Bill Looms (on Senate Bill 715 and House Bill 3356)* A Conservative Case for Clean Energy* How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance* Peak Performance: Grid Roundup #58* Record May Peak Demand Coming Wednesday: Grid Roundup #57* ERCOT CEO says "we need all resources": Grid Roundup #56TranscriptDoug Lewin (00:04.45)Welcome to the En

Texas has added more new power supply over the last four years than any other state and over 90% of it has been wind, solar, and storage. Today, renewable energy is no longer "alternative" in Texas. It is the backbone of our power grid.At this year’s Intersolar North America conference, I sat down with Nico Johnson, host of the excellent Suncast podcast, for a conversation about how the Texas energy market got here, where it’s headed, and what it means for the future of clean energy across the country.We talked about how Texas’s energy-only market, where the lowest-cost resource gets dispatched without preference for technology, has been critical to the rise of wind, solar, and storage. This growth has helped make electricity cheaper in Texas, helping attract manufacturers and data centers to locate here. And as I discussed recently with Tyler Norris on the pod, if we can successfully tap into flexible demand from these large new loads, we can go even further, helping to integrate more clean energy, strengthen reliability, and lower system costs over time.But Texas’ success is not guaranteed. I shared my concerns about Senate Bill 819, which I discussed in more detail in A Conservative Case for Clean Energy and wrote about in A Time for Choosing. If passed, this bill could impose some of the strictest permitting requirements for renewables in the country, putting future projects and billions in investment at risk. A strong Texas grid depends on continuing to build low-cost, homegrown energy resources, not restricting them.We also explored the rise of distributed energy and microgrids, including a new $1.8 billion program Texas passed to support critical facilities like hospitals and water treatment plants with backup power packages that combine solar, storage, and gas.Throughout our conversation, Nico and I talked about the outdated "us vs. them" framing between oil and gas and clean energy. That divide is breaking down. Oil and gas companies are major consumers of solar and wind, and increasingly storage. They are increasingly players in hydrogen and geothermal projects. As I explored in Geothermal’s Moment with Jamie Beard, technologies like next-generation geothermal could bridge traditional and emerging energy sectors, creating opportunities that expand energy production, not replace it.We also covered:* How battery storage is reshaping ancillary services and market dynamics in ERCOT* Why Texas’s merchant market structure creates both risks and big opportunities for developers* The rapid rise of large-scale rooftop solar and distributed generation* How the Inflation Reduction Act is driving a resurgence in domestic manufacturing* Why Texas’s unprecedented load growth from data centers and factories may help sustain the solar and storage boom, even as arbitrage opportunities tightenThere’s a lot to be excited about and a lot we still need to get right.There is no question that Texas is at an energy crossroads. With smart policies, continued market innovation, and a focus on resilience, we have an opportunity to lead the nation in building an abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy future.Timestamps* 00:00 – Intro: Doug’s background, Nico’s role, and setting the stage at Intersolar* 05:00 – How oil & gas are embracing renewables and the grid* 06:45 – The market structure that supported robust solar & storage* 8:30 - The second mouse gets the cheese (sorry, California)* 10:30 – Merchant risk & developer incentives in Texas* 13:00 – Can batteries keep winning in ERCOT?* 14:00 – Load growth, data centers & electrification* 16:00 – Policy threats: SB 819 & permitting crackdowns* 20:05 – Vernacular shift: energy expansion vs. transition* 25:00 – Domestic manufacturing & the IRA’s lasting impact* 31:00 – The rise of distributed energy & microgrids* 36:00 – Final reflections & event promotionShow NotesNico Johnson and Suncast* Subscribe to the Suncast Podcast! Great interviews and insights from clean energy leaders across the solar, storage, and renewable energy sectors.* Youtube Channel, Spotify, Apple Podcast* Nico Johnson on Linkedin, Twitter* Profile at Solar Head of StateFurther Reading and Listening* Annual Solar and Storage Installations – SEIA Data – National trends in solar and storage deployments, including Texas’s leadership in new capacity.* How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance (Doug Lewin’s Substack) – Deep dive into why flexible loads and lowest-cost dispatch are key to grid reliability and affordability.* A Conservative Case for Clean Energy (Doug Lewin’s Substack) – Why conservative principles support clean energy expansion in Texas’s competitive market.* Geothermal’s Moment with Jamie Beard (Doug Lewin’s Substack) – How geothermal fits into an all-of-the-above approach to Texas’s energy future.* How Load Flexibility Could Unlock Energy Abundance (Doug Lewin’s Substack) – Deep dive into why flexible loads and lowest-cost dispatch are key to grid reliability and affordability