Economy Watch

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US dollar is being marked down as demand for precious metal hedges rises.But first in the US there were 260,000 initial jobless claims last week, down -71,000 from the prior week and a marginally smaller change that the -73,000 change seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than the 2.24 mln a year ago. Two years ago, pre-Trump, there were 1.75 mln people on these benefits.US real personal income rose +1.0% in November from the same month a year ago. On this inflation-adjusted basis it has been flat since April 2025. But real personal consumption expenditures rose +2.6%. On an inflation-adjusted basis this is the same pace of rise that started in April 2021. It has been driven recently by services and non-durable goods. While the PCE data is still within the Fed's inflation band, the income drag will be worrying policymakers. The spending rise can't be maintained.The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows no improvement from its dour base. It is still negative.Malaysia's central bank reviewed its monetary policy and related policy rate overnight and made no change to its 2.75% level. They have a strong economic expansion underway, and inflation is low.Japan’s exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November’s +1.3% rise.The EU's consumer sentiment survey for January was marginally better (less worse) than for December - again. This continues the slow grinding improvement from its depths in September 2022 and halving that negative level. But it is still negative at double the negative pre-pandemic. Still it is on an improved trajectory and that is in sharp contrast to the US where the similar UofM survey is now deeply negative with a recent deterioration and half the level it was pre-pandemicIn Australia, their labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.Staying in Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".And Australian unicorn Airwallex is to be investigated by the money laundering regulator AUSTRAC. They suspect "serious non-compliance" by the global payments platform, specialising in moving money internationally for dodgy clients.And we should probably note that the Trump Administration has advanced its role in granting licenses to mine the seabed in international waters. It is currently mapping resources off Samoa, and it has granted its first license to mine in international water to a US miner. The US only recognises a 12 mile country claim, so vast areas are now open to grant permits for their firms to mine. There is potential trouble ahead on jurisdictional issues.Global container freight rates fell -10% last week from the prior week to be -43% below year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% in the past week to be double year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4909/oz, and up another +US$66 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up +US$2.50/oz at US$96/oz and also a record high.American oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday, up +50 bps to 59 USc as the USD is devalued in financial markets. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.9, and up +40 bps from yesterday and its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,026 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.Join us later this morning when we will report the New Zealand Q4-2025 CPI result, which could set the scene for the RBNZ decision

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it is all about the 'debasement trade" today - Trump debasing US public policy resulting in a rush to gold, a jump in US Treasury yields, and a fall in the greenback. Equities and cryptos are falling.In the US overnight, there was another good rise mortgage applications, largely on the back of a rush of refinance activity as 30 year mortgage rates eased.However December data for pending home sales took an unusually large dip from November to be -3.0% lower than year ago levels.In Canada, producer prices actually fell in December, unexpected because a small rise was anticipated. That puts them +4.9% higher than year ago levels, the slowest rise since August.In Indonesia, they reviewed their policy rate overnight, leaving it at 4.75% as expected.In Europe, the European Parliament has suspended the approval of a key US trade deal agreed in July in protest at Trump's demand to take over Greenland. Both Trump and some of his cabinet are at Davos, and in full arrogant insult mode.In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index inched up 0.1% in December from November to +0.42%, following the no-change in the previous month. The recent uptick is led by commodities and an improved homebuilding outlook. But the December rise was less than expected. A year ago its was +0.25%, so nearly a doubling since that tame benchmark.We should perhaps also note that cocoa prices have fallen sharply today, back to US$4400/tonne and the same level as two years ago. You may recall they reached US$12,250/tonne in April 2024 at the height of its surge.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, unchanged from this time yesterday. Wall Street is in its Wednesday session with the S&P500 recovering +0.3% but the earlier much larger recovery gains (over +1%) seem to be fading. The S&P500 has fallen a net -1.8% in the past two days, so far. It's the same for the Nasdaq which is now back with a small loss today, down -2.2% for the same two days. The price of gold will start today at US$4843/oz, and up another +US$93 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is lower at US$93.50/oz and off its record high.American oil prices are up a bit more than +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding from yesterday, still at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.5, and unchanged from yesterday and still its highest since early October.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,927 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%. And we perhaps should note that the $TRUMP memecoin has plunged more than -90% from its peak a year ago, burning its adherents bigtime.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher, notably in Japan and the US.First however, the overnight dairy auction delivered a modest gain, up +1.5% in USD terms, but up +0.4% in NZD terms as the US dollar is weakening. However, most of this rise is the same as recorded in last week's Pulse event. But it does cement a second consecutive rise in the full auction after nine consecutive declines. So +7.8% of rises after the -22.5% of falls. Also notable is the much less buyer interest from China, counterbalanced by stronger interest from most other regions.In the US, markets have returned after a chaotic weekend politically to a weak ADP weekly jobs report, recording just +8000 jobs gains and well within the margin of error. January is starting out tough in their labour market. But at least it wasn't a decline.The US Supreme Court issued three decisions overnight but did not decide the closely watched dispute over the legality of the Trump tariff-taxes. they gave no indication when they will. Also delayed is Trump's 'imminent decision' on his Fed boss nomination. Apparently all his candidates have issues.Also weak is the USD. It is now under 7 CNY to the USD and its lowest since 2023.In China, household borrowing is weak and household savings is strong, up +10% in 2025. That says a lot about the stress Chinese households are feeling going into 2026. Per capita bank deposits have now risen to over ¥118,000 (NZ$29,000). And we should probably note that Chinese smartphone shipments fell in 2025, the second year in a row this has occurred.In Taiwan they reported export orders in December exceeding US$76 bln, far and away a new record high and +43% higher than year ago levels. The Taiwan miracle continues. For all of 2025 these export orders rose +26%.In Malaysia, they reported good December exports too, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago to just over US$37 bln and maintaining a strong trade surplus.In Germany, producer price deflation picked up slightly to -2.5% in December from a year ago to cap a 2025 year where it averaged -1.2%.But overall German investor economic sentiment picked up notably in January, and that was also enough to propel overall EU investor sentiment into positive territory in this wide survey.It is also probably worth noting that the Microsoft boss said overnight (at the WEF) the AI bubble could falter unless adoption of the technology picks up.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday and now its highest since September. The UST 30 year bond is now at 4.90% and its highest in almost ten years. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up another sharp +7 bps at 2.35% and we make that its highest in 28 years. Its 40 year bond is now over 4.25% and its highest since our records began in 2007. The price of gold will start today at US$4750/oz, and up another +US$78 from yesterday and a new record. Silver is is actually marginally lower at US$94/oz and off its record high.American oil prices are up a bit more than +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +50 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 62.5, and up +50 bps from yesterday and its highest since early October.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,708 and down -3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news political risks have moved higher overnight, but by less than you might have expected given the pressures.First we should note that today is Martin Luther King Day in the US, celebrating a man of peace, a Federal holiday so financial markets are closed. But no one missed the irony of the day given the US President telling the Norwegian Prime Minister he is no longer feels committed to peace.The fallout has been a rise in long term interest rates (a rise in the risk premium), and a fall in the US dollar. Equities slipped it in non-US trading.In Canada, their December inflation rate rose slightly to 2.4% from 2.2% in November, with the latest month rises relatively quickly. But there are base issues here with the ending of some GST relief measures. However, excluding petrol, their CPI rose 3.0% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November.The Bank of Canada released two important sentiment surveys overnight. Results of the Q402025 survey of consumers show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict with the US continue to have a negative impact. And after a weak year, businesses expect domestic sales growth ito improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels.In Japan, they have called a snap election for February 8. A key issue will be GST relief. But financial markets are concerned that will make their fiscal imbalances worse.In China, the property sector is acting like a curse on their economy. They reported that house prices fell by -2.7% in December from a year ago. That was a -1.7% fall for new-builds and a massive -7.0% fall for resales. The overall results is the 30th consecutive month of price decreases and their fastest pace since July. There are no capital gains in Chinese housing, anywhere.That is crimping consumer attitudes is a significant way. China's retail sales rose just +0.9% year-on-year in December according to official data, slowing from a +1.3% increase and missing market expectations of a +1.2% gain. This is their weakest growth since December 2022.But China also said its industrial production was +5.2% higher than a year ago, and rising. Coal output hit a new record high. However, China's electricity production was only +0.1% higher in December from the same month a year ago. It is hard to believe their industrial production data if this was the case.All this data then results in a Q4-2025 4.5% rise in GDP, according to their official report, marginally better than the expected +4.4%. Booming exports squares the circle. So they are claiming a neat +5% 2025 annual growth, exactly as the Party had said at the start of the year.Probably of more importance, China also released updated demographic data for 2025. The said 7.9 million babies were born in the year, down from 9.5 million in 2024. The number of people who died in 2025, 11.3 million, continued to climb. It is being widely accepted now that these trends cannot be reversed, and will lead to profound population changes.In the EU they also released December CPI results for December. Their annual inflation was 2.3% in December, down from 2.4% in November. A year earlier, the rate was 2.7%. Germany, Italy and France had lower rates, Spain and most of Eastern Europe had higher rates, some a lot higher.Globally, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1% this year, but warned that major risks are building. The upgrade reflects resilient activity, strong labour markets and heavy investment in new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. However, they cautioned that these same forces could become sources of instability. Rapid AI-driven investment, particularly in North America and Asia, is supporting growth and equity markets, but if productivity gains fail to materialise, it could trigger sharp market corrections and weaken household wealth. New Zealand gets no mention or coverage in this report. Australian growth is forecast to be +2.1% this year and +2.2% in 2027. They noted Australia's inflation-control challenge. India is the star, but strong results are also expected from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. China's 5.0% growth in 2025 is expected to dip 4.5% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027.Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, surged +1.0% in December from November, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp pickup from the prior two months. That puts it +3.5% ahead of year-ago levels. The recent surge may well get the RBAs attention. Don't forget the RBA next reviews ints monetary policy two weeks from today on February 3. Next Thursday's labour market data, and the following Wednesday's December CPI data will be crucial dec

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the world is looking for even more workarounds to avoid having to deal with a Trump-America.First however, this week is going to be a busy one locally with important data releases on December retail sales (another less-than-inflation tiny rise is expected), and the Q4 CPI data (expected to hold at 3.0%). But a higher-than-expected result will likely bring outsized financial market reactions. There will also be another full dairy auction on Wednesday.In Australia, it will all about their December jobs data, and a good bounce-back from the unexpectedly weak November result is being looked for.Globally, the most interest will be on the big data dump from China this week. Their Q4-2025 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.4% dipping their full year expansion to 4.9%. House price, retail sales, and industrial production data is also due, and they are all expected to be tame. Their central bank will review its Loan Prime Rates, but no change is expected from their already record low levels.In Japan, their central bank will be reviewing their policy settings, although no change is anticipated this time. However there is intense interest about possible future rate signals.Central banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions as well.In the US, financial markets will be closed tomorrow for MLK Day. But then they will release key data on inflation, the PCE version, as well and the second Q4-2025 GDP update. But most interest will be on a flood of Q4-2025 corporate earnings reports, dominated by their big industrials.Over the weekend there were important data releases from the US too. Industrial production rose marginally in December from November to be +2.0% higher than year ago levels.The January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index retreated in January from December and back to October levels and -21% lower than year ago levels. Builder sentiment deteriorated across all components of the index.The New York Fed's regional services sector tracking reports yet another sharp contraction in their region in January, although not as sharp as in December.US data is often confusing, telling different stories. Enough so all sides can claim 'victory'. But some overarching measures paint a tougher story. Inflation feels like stagflation to most consumers. And that is confirmed by the latest data on the share of economic activity flowing to workers. It is now at its lowest level ever, since this series began 80 years ago. It is a telling data series, one that has dived fast recently.Across the border, Canadian housing starts turned in another strong result in December, up by +11% from November, to the highest rate in five months. That caps a good full year, up +5.6% in 2025 from 2024.The Canadian prime minister has been in China and has negotiated a truce with Beijing in their tariff tussle. The Chinese will now import large volumes of Canadian crops in return for up to a 49,000 car concession for Chinese EVs. Those will displace US-sourced EVs. The Canadian farm lobby is happy, their car-manufacturing lobby isn't.China continues to run down its holdings of US Treasury investments with them falling -11.2% in November from a year ago. Their holdings of US paper drops them to third place behind Japan and the UK.Malaysia's economic activity continues to impress. They recorded Q4-2025 GDP growth of +5.7% with a strong factory sector supported by strong internal demand.Singapore's (non-oil) exports rose +6.1% in December from a year earlier, a moderated pace of growth from November. (Their refined oil exports grew at more than twice that pace.) This means that Singapore's non-oil full-year 2025 exports came in +4.8% above their equivalent 2024 level.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, unchanged from this time Saturday and its highest since September. The price of gold will start today at US$4596/oz, and up +US$15 from Saturday. Silver is now just under US$90/oz.American oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, now at just over 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.7, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,130 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of plenty of gritty data, but none of it really amounting to anything significant.Actual US initial jobless claims rose +32,000 last week to 331,000. But that was a lesser rise than seasonal factors would suggest so they are taking that as a 'win'. There are now 2.31 mln people on these benefits, up from 2.27 mln this time last year and that is a post-pandemic high. (Financial markets prefer the seasonally-adjusted data, even if that doesn't actually reflect the impact on real people.)The New York Fed's Empire State factory survey rose in January on a modest rise in new orders, putting behind it the November dip. It was a very similar story for the Philly Fed factory survey which rose in January for the first time in four months.The January update to the Fed Beige Book saw overall economic activity increasing at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with three Districts reporting no change and one reporting a modest decline. This marks an improvement over the last three report cycles where a majority of Districts reported little change. Employment was little-changed. But cost pressures due to tariffs were a consistent theme almost everywhere.In the US rural economy, the rejection of US farm goods internationally is causing exceptionally tough times. Banks are refusing to lend because borrower prospects are so poor. It's an existential crisis for many. Far from the 'great again' promise, it is shaping up to be a rural disaster.Indian exports rose in December, but the gain was marginal. But trade with the US is little affected with exports to the US down just -1% since Trump's swingeing tariffs on India. For the full year, India had a trade deficit of -US$305 bln, a notable rise from 2024. India is no China trade behemoth - yet.Chinese banks extended ¥910 bln in new loans in December, sharply higher than the unusually low ¥390 bln in November. A year ago, the December level was ¥990 bln but at least this year it was above market expectations of ¥800 bln. New bank lending in China has been at unusually low levels for more than six months now. To encourage more, the central bank has lowered interest rates on targeted rural and SME lending. It also unveiled a ¥1 tln (NZ$250 bln) relending facility for private enterprises.The inability of some Australian state governments to repair their balance sheets after the pandemic free-spending is worrying at least one credit rating agency. S&P is warning NSW and Queensland in particular that they are now at greater risk of a downgrade from their AA+ rating. Heavy infrastructure spending and rising entitlement claims are hurting, as well as the political reluctance to raise taxes.And staying in Australia, their consumer inflation expectations came in at 4.6% in January, little changed from the 4.7% in December. Households still see elevated price pressures and has been at this general level for more than eight months. (Official November CPI was 3.4% and the December update comes on January 28, 2026.)Global container freight rates slipped -4% last week, ending a string of five consecutive rises. Most of that was driven by retreats in the China-US trade. This index is now -39% lower than year-ago levels. The bulk cargo rates fell sharply this week, down -13% to be +44% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.16%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4603/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday. Silver is still at US$91.50/oz, up +US$4.50/oz.American oil prices are sharply lower from yesterday at just under US$59/bbl and down -US$2.50, while the international Brent price is now at US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down a bit less than -10 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,711 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it is now clear that China has been the big winner in Trump's trade war. Geopolitical risks are front of mind in financial markets today.But first in the US, eyes were on a possible decision on the Trump tariff-taxes by the US Supreme Court today. But it did not come. Trump himself has been exerting maximum pressure on the justices, most of who he appointed. His problem is that he appointed strict legal constructionists and they were very unfriendly to his position during the argument stage. However, he expects 'loyalty' over "the law" and with the pressure he may get it. Today's deferral of a decision is a 'win' for him.US mortgage applications leaped +28% last week from the prior week, sharply rebounding from three consecutive periods of declines. The trigger seems to be a fall in benchmark home loan rates, although to be fair they only shifted from 6.25% to 6.18%. But that seems to have been enough to have motivated borrowers.American producer prices were up +3.0% in November from a year ago with core PPI up +3.5%. These changes are very little different to what was recorded for them one year ago.US retail sales were up +1.9% in November from a year ago (from US$723 bln in November 2024 to US$737 bln in this latest data). But for some reason the official stats agency is claiming it is up +3.3%. Hard to fathom - their 'seasonal adjustment' seems to have gone wonky.Meanwhile, American existing home sales recovered in December, and that left them +1.4% higher than year-ago levels. Their high levels of unsold inventory is starting to clear now.Across the Pacific, China’s exports rose by +6.6% in December from a year ago to a record US$358 bln and much better than the expected +3% rise. These were up +5.9% in November and the December gain was the strongest growth since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets. That surge capped their year with a trade surplus of much more than expected, a massive +US$1.19 tln. Clearly US tariffs haven't hurt China, although Americans are paying these taxes.China’s vehicle sales grew +9.4% in 2025 from 2024 to a record high of 34.4 mln units with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales surging 28%. Although this was a faster pace of overall expansion, their December monthly sales actually fell -7.2% from 2024 levels. In fact, this industry is looking at 2026 with trepidation. The 2025 records may be the high water mark.In Japan, machine tool orders rose +10.6% in December their best level since the pandemic, and to levels they had back in the heady pre-pandemic levels. Strong foreign demand is a featureIn South Korea, some surprisingly negative jobs data was released yesterday. Their jobless rate jumped to 4.1% in December from 2.7% in November to its highest level in nearly five years - in fact back to pre-pandemic levels. The number of unemployed people rose to 1.22 mln, up +103,000 or up +9.2% year-on-year. It is such an unusual and unexpected result, it may be a rogue survey.In an updated review, the World Bank says global growth will come in at +2.7% in 2026, up marginally from +2.6% in its June forecast. It predicts US GDP growth will reach +2.2% in 2026, compared with +2.1% in 2025. For China, they see +4.9% and +4.4% for the same two years. For Japan it is +1.3% and 0.8%. For the EU, +1.4% and +0.9%. For India it is +7.2% and +6.5%. Neither Australia nor New Zealand feature in these reviews.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4613/oz, and up +US$3 from yesterday, essentially holding Tuesday's big run-up on the geopolitical risks. Silver is still rising quickly, now almost US$91.50/oz, up +US$4.50/oz. Copper has hit a new record high.American oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just over US$61.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a bit less than +10 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.6, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,434 and up +4.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate, also at just on +/- 2.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the Powell resistance to Trump has garnered unexpectedly wide support, nationally and internationally, reinvigorating "central bank independence" positions. It also has many Trump supporters worried, if the 'right-wing press' is any indication.First up today, the overnight Pulse dairy auction of milk powders extended last week's full auction gains for both SMP and WMP. And they were good gains, with SMP +2.1% higher than a week ago, and WMP +1.2% higher on the same basis.In the US, the December CPI data released overnight recorded no-change from their November levels, at 2.7% or 2.6% on a 'core' basis. Both are still above the US Fed target. Food prices are up +3.1% and rents up +3.2% within this survey.The ADP weekly jobs data shows a similar +11,000 jobs gain last week, a rate that would confirm January's net hiring as slower than the slow December.US new home sales held at the higher 737,000 annual rate in October, a good result in the circumstances, but now quite dated data.This data will get more 'interesting' in 2026 with news that more migrants left the US than entered. While the net outflow wasn't large (for the US) at possibly about -300,000, the expectation is that it will be similar in 2026. This is the first time in 50 years they have shed people. It has certainly lost its 'welcoming' reputation - for both potential migrants, and for travelers.We got more recent sentiment surveys overnight, The RCM/TIPP survey was more downbeat in January than December and more so than expected - although to be fair the shifts weren't large - they just went the 'wrong' way.But the NFIB survey was little-changed - negative yes (below 100 still), but marginally less so.In Japan, their official "economy watchers survey" was also little-changed, although the forward looking section became marginally more optimistic.Meanwhile, bank lending in Japan rose 4.4% in December from a year ago. That growth was well above what was anticipated. If you ignore than pandemic distortion, that was at least a 25 year high, and probably very much longer.And Japan is on watch, with many expecting Prime Minister Takaichi to call a snap election very soon to bolster her conservative clout in the Diet. That saw the yen tumble and equities soar yesterday. Benchmark bond yields rise sharply too.In India, they released their December vehicle sales data overnight, reporting a very strong +20.6% gain from the same month a year ago, capping a year of +5.0% growth. Apparently their GST rate reduction for other products improved the overall affordability situation for many buyers.In Australia, consumer sentiment as measured in the Westpac survey has shifted lower and is more pessimistic in January. While confidence is still well above the extreme lows recorded during the protracted ‘cost of living’ crisis in 2022–2024, consumers are becoming more concerned about what 2026 may bring for family finances and the wider economy. The main catalyst continues to be a sharp turn in interest rate expectations. Nearly two thirds of consumers with a view now expect mortgage rates to move higher over the next 12 months, more than double the level back in September.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.17%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +64 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$4610/oz, and down -US$7 from yesterday, essentially holding yesterday's big run-up on the risks from the unsettled US Fed. Silver is still rising, now almost US$87/oz.American oil prices are up US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$61.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.6, and down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,492 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest, also at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of gold and other commodity prices have pushed up into record territories again as geopolitical risks rise. (Crypto's are notable by their impotence in the background, irrelevant in this environment.)Perhaps one reason is in the US, where the President has used his weaponised Justice Department to pressure the Federal Reserve to bow to his will. The clearly bogus criminal charges are being resisted by chairman Powell. The unseemly crisis could aggravate risk premiums worldwide. So far interest rates have remained stable (you can be sure that bond markets will be watching intensely), but the USD is noticeably weaker.It has not been in the limelight recently, but we should note that US grain farmers are facing tough trading, with them being shut out from the China trade for soybean and corn. Trump seem to have thrown them under the bus.In India, consumer price inflation rose to 1.3% in December from 0.7% in November but below the market consensus of 1.5%. Despite the rise, this rate remains well below the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance limit of 2%-6%. Prices fell less for food (down -2.7%), which represent nearly half of the consumer basket.In Australia, household spending rose strongly in November, up +1.0% from October, up +6.3% from November a year ago. This result was much better than expected.And Australia said it will y and stockpile key rare-earth minerals from domestic producers to strengthen defence and technology supply chains and reduce reliance on China. They are initially focusing on antimony and gallium under a new A$1.2 bln program.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.18%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. Wall Street has opened its week with the S&P500 very little-changed, up +0.1%. We should perhaps note that serial underperformer Rakon has received another takeover bid from a previous suitor, this one less than the last, and the frustrated shareholders look like they will finally accept. They will put the mismanagement misery behind them, it seems. They will be selling for $1.55/share. These shares peaked at $5.60 back in the day, $2.08 in 2022. Today they are $1.36, so the market isn't yet pricing in a full chance of the takeover.At the other end of the scale we should also note that Alphabet (Google) briefly hit US$4 ​trln in market valuation earlier today, the second company to do that after Nvidia, as they sharpened their AI gains, both with impressive integrated solutions, and a recent deal with Apple (who was pushed into third place on the valuation table).The price of gold will start today at US$4617/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday on the risks from the unsettled US Fed. Silver is now up at over US$80.50/oz.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps as well at just under 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.7, and up +30 bps from yesterday.In offshore trading the Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened well past the 4:USD level, and rising.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,071 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, also at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of plenty of trade and economic action, some good, some not so.But first, some official data will start to be released locally this week, with November building permits and employment indicators, both for November, and the monthly December "selected price increases" covering mainly food and rent. We get the latest update to the NZIER business confidence survey this week too.In Australia, they will also release November building permit data, job vacancy data and household spending data, all for November too. The Westpac consumer sentiment survey will come as well, along with inflation expectation survey results.China's trade data for December will come out this week, and we expect the 2025 surplus to exceed US$1 tln. They will also release December new yuan lending data, expected to be better than November.From Japan we will get machine tool order data. In India, it will be about inflation data.In the US, the early Q4-2025 earnings reports will come from their big banks. Retail sales data is also due. But most eyes will be on the US December CPI result which is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%, although it is from an agency where the President inserted a lackey to keep an eye on their data.That same agency released their December US non-farm payrolls report over the weekend and it was something of a damp squib, but markets seemed to like it. The US economy added just +50,000 payroll jobs in December, less than a downwardly revised +56,000 in November and below forecasts of +60,000. These are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw data shows payrolls falling -192,000 and quite different to the equivalent small rise in December 2024. The broader population survey has overall employment falling -335,000 in December (double the 2024 change).The US unemployment rate ended the year at 4.4%, a tick less than November's 4.5% but well above December 2024's 4.1% (and December 2023's 3.8%). Average weekly earnings rose +3.8% from a year ago, keeping pace with inflation.Most analysts now see almost no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's January 29, 2026 meeting. Trump's inserted Miran remains an almost lone voice.US consumer debt trends are showing similar signs of stress and are looking topped-out. Total debt rose by only +US$4.2 bln in November and well below market expectations of a modest +$10 bln rise. It is equivalent to a +1% annual rise. Revolving debt (credit cards, etc.) fell at an annual rate of -1.9% while non-revolving debt, which includes car and student loans, went up +2.0%.So the latest update of a key consumer sentiment survey (this one from the University of Michigan) remained very low but little-changed in January from December and -25% lower than year-ago levels, -17% lower than two years ago.And we should note that markets are now expecting the US Supreme Court to rule on its tariff case possibly on Thursday.In Canada, employment was little-changed in December, up a minor +8200. But full-time employment grew +50,100 while part-time jobs shrank -42,000. It will be a rebalancing they will welcome. Their employed workforce is 21.1 mln, up +1.1% from a year ago. Analysts see much less of a chance of interest rate hikes in 2026 after this labour market result.In Japan, household spending was expected to bounce back in November after the weak October result. It did, but by very much more than expected. That was enough to take it up +2.9% from a year ago and very much better than the market expectations for a -0.9% decline. It was the steepest rise since May, supported by higher winter-related purchases and easing inflation pressures on some essential goods.Chinese CPI inflation is staying very low even if it did rise slightly in December. It came in +0.8% higher than year ago levels, marginally higher than in November. Beef prices were up +6.9% however from a year ago, sheep meat prices up +4.4% on the same basis. Milk prices (now bundled into "dairy products") were down -1.8% on that annual basis. All these food price rises were a key reason for the overall CPI rise.Taiwanese exports were up +43% in December from a year ago, rising to the second-highest monthly level on record. The pace slowed from an unusual +56% burst in November. It says a lot about expectations in Taiwan that analysts were expecting a +46% rise.Indian bank lending rose +14.5% in December from a year ago, the most in two years.In Europe, retail sales rose at a + 2.3% year-on-year volume rate in November, up from a revised +1.9% in October and well above market expectations of just +1.6%. The return of rising consumer spending will be welcomed in the bloc. This impulse is broadly back to what they had in the 2017-2019 period.We should note as well that the EU, after overcoming deep dissension among its members (espec

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news global trade is rising and quite impressively, but the US is being shunned (or shunning itself).But first, US initial jobless claims rose more than +29,000 last week, marginally more than level seasonal factors would have accounted for. But there are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits and quite a bit higher than a year ago. Modest hiring and rising firings are driving these trends.Although the December month layoff data was unusually low, it does cap the full year layoff level at just over 2 mln and the most since the pandemic, and prior to that, the most since the GFC.Analysts are expecting tomorrow's release of December non-farm payrolls to rise just +60,000, similar to the low November level.In their December survey, the New York Fed reports it showed US labour market expectations worsened (almost one in seven people expect to lose their jobs in 2026) and short term; inflation expectations tick up to 3.4% but were unchanged over the longer terms.US exports rose and imports fell in the October data released overnight. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply to -US$29.4 bln in the month, the smallest gap since June 2009. Exports rose 2.6% or +US$7.2 bln to a record $302 bln. Imports declined -3.2% to a 21-month low of $331 bln. But this is really a story about gold flows more than tariff effects. Precious metal exports rose US$10.2 bln in the month and without those, exports would have fallen. Imports of gold fell -US$1.4 bls. Their largest monthly gaps were recorded with Mexico (-US$18 bln), Taiwan (-US$16 bln), Vietnam (-US$15 bln) and China (-US$14 bln). The trade gap with the EU narrowed sharply to -US$6.3 bln.Canada also reported trade data overnight. In October, Canada's merchandise imports increased +3.4%, while exports were up +2.1%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance went from a small surplus of +C$243 mln in September to a deficit of -C$583 mln in October. Basically they remain in balance on this measure. But the transition away from trade with the US is sharp. Again, these flows have a large gold component too.In China, private analysts shows that their property market slump deepened in 2025, with new-home sales shrinking -9% to levels not seen before 2010 and falling by roughly half from their 2021 peak. Total sales value fell by nearly -13% according to this respected analysts.Japanese consumer sentiment, which has been improving since April, hesitated in December at just below the November level. Another improvement was expected, although the difference is small.It was a very similar story in the EU, with a December hesitation after a nine month string of improvements.Meanwhile, the survey for the ECB on consumer inflation expectations shows them unchanged in November at 2.8%.On the industrial front however, producer prices fell -1.7% in November from a year ago, more than the -0.5% in October, but less of a deterioration than the -1.9% expected. They actually rose slightly from the prior month and ny a bit more than anticipated.German factory orders rose sharply in November and ny much more than expected, up +5.6% from October, up +10.5% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the trade surplus narrowed in November, as major commodity exports fell, and capital goods imports signalled a possibility of softer business investment in the December quarter.Globally, air passenger travel rose +5.7% in November from a year ago. international travel was up +7.7%. But its was all driven by the +7.8% rise from the Asia/Pacific region.Meanwhile air cargo traffic rose a similar +5.5% in November, also driven by the +11.1% rise in international cargoes in the Asia/Pacific region. North American flows declined.Global shipping container freight rates rose +16% last week from the prior week to be now -35% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China, to both the US and EU, rose sharply. Bulk cargo rates fell -6% last week, and are now +25% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.18%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4460/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$2 to US$76/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,887 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the econom

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the fall of the USD is driving some renewed realignments.To start we should note that gold has surpassed US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years driven primarily by sharply rising prices, and some aggressive buying by some (mainly autocrat) central banks.Elsewhere in the real economy, the private US ADP employment report for December rose by +41,000 jobs following a revised -29,000 retreat in November. The December result was slightly less than forecasts of a +47,000 gain. This huge sample has been in a yo-yo pattern since mid-2025 and over that six month period they have reported a net gain of +129,000 - but almost all that gain was in August. We get the December non-farm payrolls report on Saturday, and it is expected to show a gain of +60,000.US job opening shrank in November. They fell by -303,000 to 7.146 mln in the month, the lowest since September 2024 and well below market expectations of a good gain.The ISM Services PMI rose for a third consecutive month in December, well above what was expected due to more positive holiday season trading. It was their best services sector PMI since October 2024, and broad-based. This was quite a different view to yesterday's S&P Global services PMI which told the inverse story.Meanwhile the US released catch-up factory order data, delayed by their shutdown, and a desire to make bad data seem less relevant. This report for October revealed orders fell +1.3% from September, to be just +1.6% higher than a year ago, far less than current price inflation. A driver of this pullback has been lower aircraft orders.Meanwhile, the NY Fed's global supply chain pressure index jumped rather more than expected in December, a clear signal that American importers are feeling rising stress - although nothing like its pandemic stress.In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI turned back to an expansion in December, and they reported lower cost pressures, even if they remain elevated.In China, their central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity up with a loose monetary policy.Meanwhile their foreign exchange agency explicitly committed to “effectively guaranteeing” fx access for all market players, a move to reassure businesses of currency liquidity amid the global pressures.And China's FX reserves rose to US$3.358 tln in December, a +4.9% or +US$160 bln change from a year ago, boosted in part by a falling USD. But next week, China will announce a +US$1 tln trade surplus in the same period, so it does make you wonder where the difference has gone. Clearly there are large capital outflows. China's gold reserves rose more than +55% in 2025, largely due to the rise in price. But they also added volume from local mining.Another consequence of this rise in reserves and the swelling trade surplus, is that the yuan is appreciating, especially against the USD (but not significantly against the AUD or NZD). However the appreciation against the USD is crucial because most of the world's trade in conducted or priced in USD.Taiwan said its CPI rose +1.3% in December from a year ago, and its PPI fell -2.6% on the same basis.In Europe, they said their CPI was up +2.0% in the euro area in December, a slight dip from November. So it is at the ECB target now. The range was from +0.7% in France to over +3.0% in front-line eastern countries. Germany was +2.0%, Spain +3.0% and Italy +1.2%.Australia’s CPI inflation slowed to 3.4% in November from a year ago, down from 3.8% in October. This was a bigger fall than expected, but it is still above the RBA’s 2–3% target. Still, this will ease the pressure on the RBA and push back any thought of rate rises. Housing was up 5.2%, food by 3.3%, and transport by +2.7%. As the electricity subsidy rollback fades, that is reducing pressure overall.Australian building consents rose sharply in November, up +15.2% to 18,406, a rise dominated by apartment approvals.And while we complain about high prices for dairy products and meat because of our low dollar and high international demand, get ready for much higher fish prices too. The West Australian government has permanently closed it's snapper fishery, and fish wholesalers there are now flying in New Zealand snapper to fill the shortage.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.14%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +67 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$4458/oz, and down -US$29 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$4 to US$78/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 USc from yesterday at just under US$56/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$60/bbl. These are both near five year lows.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed fro

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news today is all about commodity prices. Silver has jumped sharply, gold and platinum are up, copper is at a record high, and both nickel and aluminium have surged too. Tin is at a three year high. Lithium is on the move up again too after a two year slumber.It's not only hard commodities. The overnight global dairy trade auction surprised to the upside. A small gain was anticipated but in the end we got a +6.3% rise in USD terms, +6.5% in NZD terms. There were gains across the board, but the largest was for WMP (+7.2%), followed by SMP (+5.4%). There follow a worrying string of declines that set in from August, Elevated buying from China was a key driver, but that was on top of sharp increases in demand from the Middle East.The +6.3% rise in USD was the largest since March 2021. The +6.5% rise in NZD was the largest since September 2022. Despite these encouraging signs, overall prices are now only back to early December levels. The rises will be welcome, but on their own are unlikely to alter any farmgate payout prices. Today's recovery will need to be sustained. Don't forget, prices in USD have fallen -22% from May 2025 even after today's lift.In the US, the S&P Global services PMI for the US retreated back to a modest expansion in December after the good expansion the previous month which was revised lower. This metric is now at an eight month low. New business growth dropped to its lowest in 20 months as inflationary pressure bit harder.Meanwhile, the Logistics Manager’s Index retreated for a second consecutive month in December. It was the slowest expansion in the logistics sector since April 2024, with the majority of the downward pressure coming from inventory and warehousing markets. Transportation costs rose more than expected.Total vehicle sales in the US rose to a 16 mln annual rate in December, up from a 15.6 mln rate in November. A year ago they ran at 16.9 mln annual rate, so a -5.3% decline.In China, total vehicle sales have not yet been announced, but it is very likely they exceeded 36 mln in 2025 with growing strength in the past six months. That will be +14.6% higher than their 2024 level.China equities hit a decade high in Tuesday trading.Meanwhile, an historic climate shift is bringing record rainfall to China’s northern regions, overwhelming unprepared cities and upending agriculture, while leaving the traditionally lush south parched.In Europe, food giant Nestle is recalling infant formula after serious contamination concerns.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.18%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4487/oz, and up another +US$45 from yesterday and heading back up toward its end of year record high. Silver is up sharply to US$81.50/oz and a new record high, and platinum is also back up sharply at US$2430 and also almost at its end of year record high.American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just over US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.8, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,515 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news elevated global uncertainty is pushing up prices for key minerals sharply today. Wall Street is of two minds about the risks and opportunities.But first in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted for a third consecutive month in December to the lowest level since October 2024 and lower than expected. Manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, led by pullbacks in production and inventories. Price pressures remained elevated. On the other hand, this survey shows new orders contracting less in December and new export orders staying quite low..This ISM result was much more somber than the earlier S&P Global factory PMI for the US was still expanding in December, but fell from November to its weakest expansion in the current five-month growth phase. New orders declined for the first time in a year, while exports fell for a seventh consecutive month, weighed down by the consequences to costs from tariff-taxes, and trade frictions.Staying in the US, their vaccine-sceptic Administration has opened the door to a "moderately severe" flu outbreak this year (their description). The US CDC estimates the season's toll so far at least 11 million illnesses, 120,000 hospitalisations and 5,000 deaths. In the 2024–25 season, CDC estimated at least 5.3 million illnesses, 63,000 hospitalizations and 2,700 deaths in the equivalent period.In China, the private S&P Global (RD) services PMI expanded modestly in December. But the survey also noted that business activity and sales both rose at their slowest rates in six months. Job shedding persists. Output price inflation fell for the second time in three months. This private services PMI however is more upbeat than the official version.Indonesia exports slumped in November, following smaller retreat in October and coming much worse than market forecasts. Exports to China were a key driver of the pullback, both for oil and non-oil exports. This is their steepest drop since February 2024.Singaporean retail sales were unchanged in November from October, but given November 2024 was a weak month, that means they were up +6.3% from a year earlier to be the strongest growth since February 2024.In Europe, after a two year transition, they now have the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully in force. That, requires importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen to purchase certificates to cover the carbon emissions embedded in their products. The mechanism is designed to force importers to pay the difference between the carbon price in the country of production and that in the EU, trying to prevent “carbon leakage,” when companies based in the EU move carbon-intensive production abroad to take advantage of lax standards. But countries like China or the US are not happy.In Australia, a key industry lobby group has warned the power grid is not ready for the projected growth in capacity demands for data centers. They say the consequences could be severe for homes and businesses.And staying in Australia, the large high in the Tasman Sea bringing settled weather to New Zealand is blocking cooling relief in Australia. They now say NSW, Victoria and South Australia will get searing hot days, warm nights and elevated bushfire risk later this week. The forecast is for daytime highs being eight to 16 degrees above average, and night minimums to be 10 to 15 degrees above average.We should note that copper has surged to a new record high of US$13,093/tonne. Nickel has surged recently, now at a one-year high. And we should probably should note that Chinese iron ore prices are not falling, holding at a similar level they have been at since early 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.16%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4442/oz, and up +US$112 from yesterday and heading back up toward it record high. Silver is up to US$76.50/oz also back near its record high, and platinum is now at US$2269 and making the same upward shift.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +20 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,143 and up a strong +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the global economy is ticking over normally, despite the weekend theatrics.In the coming week there is very little official data released in New Zealand. But in Australia we will get the November CPI readout, building permit data, and the merchandise trade result, both also for November. There are widespread expectations that this data will be good.Elsewhere, it is back to a full economic schedule in most places, all as Trump's colonising adventure in Venezuela takes shape. It is successfully distracting the real world from his domestic misfires, as he awaits the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs. The US will release a bunch of labour market data (non-farm payrolls, JOLTs, and the now more important private payroll data - now Trump has yes-men controlling the official data flows). There will also be PMIs from the ISM this week, and the University of Michigan sentiment survey for January.Canada will also release jobs data.China will be releasing CPI and PPI data this week, and the private services PMI will drop sometime too.India will post its latest GDP update this week. In Japan, it will all be about corporate earnings reports.In Europe, the spotlight will be on inflation rates for the Eurozone and its largest economies, in addition to their jobless rates and major manufacturing gauges from Germany and Switzerland.Over the weekend, China unveiled early investment plans for 2026, signaling a renewed push to bolster China's economic growth through infrastructure spending. They are frontloading their stimulus. And their 2025 consumer goods subsidy programs will extend into 2026.China's property sector drag isn't going away, despite official ambivalence to the issue now. But some heavy hitters are calling for more forceful rescue plans.Meanwhile, Chinese president Xi said he expects 2026 growth to come in close to 5%.China has tightened silver export controls from January 1, widening restrictions on a commodity now seen as vital to many industries. This signaled tightening is behind the recent sharp run-up in price. Currently more than 60% of global production comes from China.China's official PMIs both moved from contraction in November to a steady-state in December, an unexpected improvement for both the factory sector, and their services sector - although neither are actually expanding yet. The gains are all from internal demand however, a shift Beijing is keen to encourage. The factory improvement is notable because it ends eight consecutive monthly declines.The private Markit/RatingDog China factory PMI unexpectedly rose as well in December from November’s four-month low, besting market forecasts. This version also relied on better internal demand, offsetting weaker export demand.South Korea's exports hit a record US$710 bln in 2025, the first time they have rosen above US$700 bln. In December, their exports jumped +13.4% from a year earlier, the seventh consecutive month of growth and the strongest increase since July 2024. This was an acceleration from an +8.4% November rise.In India, they still had good factory growth in December, but a notable slowing of new orders has them on edge to end the year.In the US initial jobless claims rose marginally and by less than expected last week. New orders in American factories fell for first time in a year in December, but output growth remains solid. Tariffs continue to push up prices at an elevated pace, embedding inflation. Higher prices and weaker demand discouraged purchasing activity, just the ingredients for stagflation.Eyes are now turning to the US Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump's tariff-taxes. It is due sometime this month. Trump himself is nervous about the ruling.In Europe, factory output declined for first time since February 2025 as their manufacturing PMI contracted in December. New orders fell. The overall situation was dragged down by Germany.In Australia late last week, Cotality said that national home values recorded the smallest gain in five months in December, with overall value rising just +0.7% in the month. Sydney and Melbourne were the biggest drag on the headline growth outcome with values sliding -0.1% lower. Brisbane, Adelaide and especially Perth continued their strong gains.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.19%, unchanged from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$4330/oz, and up +US$17 from Saturday. Silver is up to US$72.50/oz, and platinum is back up to US$2143/oz.American oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$60.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news precious metals prices are zooming higher today, most to new all-time heights.But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is back being tracked following the shutdown and it shows activity still notably lower than its long run trend, even if it did improve in September from August. It is barely back to the same drag level it was a year ago.American holiday retail sales for November and December are projected to grow between +3.7% and +4.2% over the same months last year, a weaker gain than last year's +4.3% increase. Revenue growth in November was about +1% compared to November 2024, with flat unit demand. Consumers are reportedly cautious, focusing spending on necessities, and higher-income consumers are driving most of the spending, while lower-income consumers remain constrained. Inflation-adjusted sales volumes are probably not growing. Ecommerce is a bright spot, with Deloitte forecasting a +7% to +9% growth for the season.In Canada, their November PPI came in +6.1% higher than a year ago. But this result was twisted by the very sharp run-up in the costs of precious metals, and diesel (after US sanctions on Russian diesel twisted their demand for Canadian product). But even without those, they would have had more than a +4% rise.In Japan at one point yesterday, their 10 year government bond hit 2.10% and its highest level since 1999. It has eased slightly since, but this has had a depressive impact on the Yen, and there is market talk of intervention now.In China, their central bank held key lending rates at record lows for a seventh consecutive month in December, as expected. Earlier they had left their seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% and this is now their main policy rate. They seem to have less intentions for more monetary stimulus as the economy looks like it is on track to meet this year’s growth target of "around 5%".And staying in China, they have slapped some substantial duty penalties on certain EU dairy products. The claim is that the French and Dutch subsidise their production. Although these new duties are relatively narrowly targeted, it will be a major trade escalation in the eye of the EU.And we should also note that India and New Zealand have agreed a new substantial free trade deal. Almost all New Zealand business groups have welcomed the breakthrough, which the Indians are using as a benchmark for deep agreements with other countries. But 2026 is election year and one party, NZ First, is using the deal to promote its anti-immigration credentials.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4437/oz, and up +US$99 from yesterday and easily a new record high. Silver has surged to, up +US$2 to just under US$69/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2115/oz earlier today, and approaching it 2008 record highs.American oil prices are up almost +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,163 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just under +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We are taking a short break and we will be back on Monday, December 29 with another update.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are ending 2025 with more signs of the consequences of the Trump twist and the fading of American economic dominance. But it may not be to China where the economic power flows.This short week is critical worldwide for retail sales, but discounting early is well set in most markets so there are fears the post-holiday 'sales' could bring anticlimactic results. And it hasn't been helped by a rambling and vengeful performance by Trump in a speech pre-billed as an indicator of economic 'progress'. Markets cast a sceptical eye on it on Friday (US time) with US bond yields rising after it.This week will bring US durable goods order updates and industrial production updates in the US, more regional Fed factory surveys, and the Conference Board's survey of sentiment. None are expected to be very strong. But the 'official' update for Q3 GDP for the US is expected to show the result Trump is looking for.China will be closeted in another national party conference with economic topics high on their agenda. Japan will release a range of data expected to be mixed. There will be more data from Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. Australia has concluded its 2025 economic releases, but New Zealand will have its lending and funding data releases for November on Tuesday.Over the weekend, China released its foreign direct investment data and it turned higher in October, up a net +US$6.6 bln from September and higher than the year-ago gain of +US$6.2 bln, although that still leaves the year-to-date level -7.5% lower and extending the streak of contractions that began in May 2023. The current gains are actually tiny for a country the size of China. Later today they will review their official loan prime rates, but no changes is expected from the current record low levels.In Japan, and as clearly signaled, their central bank moved their policy rate up by +25 bps to 0.75% late on Friday. It was their second hike this year after their similar January move. Policymakers there see extended wage inflation and rising company profits. But it did point out that real interest rates remain significantly negative and that overall financial conditions are 'broadly accommodative'. Markets took these signals to be slightly more hawkish than expected and pushed the Japanese 10 year bond yield higher, to a twenty year high.Malaysia's booming economy is now drawing in imports faster than the rise in their exports, and it was barely able to post a trade surplus in November. Exports were up +7.0% from a year ago, but imports jumped at more than twice that rate, up +15.8%.In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was revised lower in December although up marginally from November's unusual low. It is however -28% lower than year-ago levels. Both measures for current conditions and expectations were revised down. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the November survey. Perceived 'affordability' issues are building.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, unchanged from this time Saturday but down -5 bps from this time last week.The price of gold will start today at US$4338/oz, and down -US$13 from Saturday, but up +US$44/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$60.50/bbl and up +50 USc. From a week ago these prices are down -US$1/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just on 57.6 USc which is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.8, little-changed from Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,354 and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. It is down -2.1% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just under +/- 0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November data. In any case the official November result was published as a rise of 2.7%, a sharply lower level no analyst saw coming. Apparently, falling rents were a big part of the retreat. (And don't forget, the last US BLS boss who delivered unwelcome results was fired by the Administration.). In any event, financial markets have taken it at face value, accepting there is no affordability problem, Just as the President has claimed.And official US initial jobless claims came in at the expected +255,000, so there are now 1.882 mln people on these benefits, fractionally more than the 1.864 mln in the same week a year ago.In non-Administration controlled data, the news isn't so bright. The Philly Fed's December factory survey fell sharply again, retreating as it has done in the past two months. And this came as new orders actually rose, although from a low level. It is a survey that has reported 'future conditions' very positive for more than a year now, but also reporting 'current conditions languishing.The similar Kansas City Fed factory survey fell into a mild contraction in December, a sharpish fall from November. Again, those surveyed were still upbeat probably because new orders ticked higher. But more companies are reporting higher prices paid for supplies.In Canada, they are reporting rising SME business optimism, and the highest since May 2022.The Taiwan central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2% overnight. The ECB held their unchanged too at 2.15%.Sweden held their 1.75% rate unchanged as well at their overnight meeting. Norway held their at 4.0%. But the English central bank had a need to cut theirs, by -25 bps to 3.75%, in a split 5-4 decision (the four dissenters wanted no cut.) Japan will review its policy rate later today and is widely expected to raise it by +25 bps.In Australia, inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.Global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +12% last week to be -43% lower than year-ago levels. The latest rise was driven by very much stronger demand in the outbound China to the US rates. Separately, bulk cargo freight rates fell -13% last week but are now +50% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4367/oz, and up another +US$35 from yesterday, and which we make as a new record high. Silver is at US$65/oz and sharply back off its record high.American oil prices are slightly firmish from yesterday at just under US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62, and again little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,092 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are entering the end of year shadow of economic releases, but there are still some important things to come. And the upcoming sentiment signals as the holidays approach are not overly optimistic. Today tech industry concerns are weighing on equity markets.Elsewhere, US mortgage applications fell -3.8% last week, the biggest dip in a month. Applications to purchase a home declined -2.8% while home loan refinance fell -3.6%. Benchmark mortgage interest rates were little-changed.More Fed speakers were out overnight, with a Trump favourite (Christopher Waller) saying US rates can be cut by -1%. Waller is a candidate for a Trump nomination to replace Powell. But Atlanta Fed boss Bostic says any rate cuts now will just fuel inflation which he sees as already too high.In Canada, foreign investment in Canadian securities in October rose to their highest level since March 2022, a sharp rise from the high September level and far above what analysts were expecting.And we should note that the Bank of Canada is moving ahead with its plan to support an official stablecoin.Also in Canada, we should note they had their biggest dip in population in Q3-2025 as they effectively shut their doors to immigrants. It was their first-ever drop (outside the pandemic)In Japan, machinery orders, (but excluding volatile sectors such like ships and electric power systems), jumped +7.0% in October from September's good 4.2% gain. This is even better than expected, because a -2.3% decline was anticipated. The October level was also the highest since March.So it won't be a surprise to know that Japan’s exports rose +6.1% in November from a year ago, the third consecutive monthly gain and better than the expected rise. In fact, it was the fastest pace in export shipments since February, and was driven by demand from the US who have just accepted that they have to pay their tariff-taxes. This gain pushed Japan back into a trade surplus.In Indonesia, their central bank left its policy rate unchanged in its meeting yesterday at 4.75%, as expected. They see inflation holding in its +/-1% target around 2.5%. In Europe there will be monetary policy decisions tonight, with the ECB expected to hold and the Bank of England to cut.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, little-changed from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4332/oz, and up +US$35 from yesterday, and touching its record highs. Silver is at US$66.50/oz and a new record high. We should also keep an eye on platinum too, also near its recent record highs. 2026 could be "interesting" for precious metals.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$56/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps firmer at 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 62, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,671 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will be reporting the Q3-2025 change in economic activity (GDP). Markets are expecting a +1.3% rise from a year ago, a +0.9% from Q2. And they are expecting Q2 to be revised up. Material variations from that will have financial market implications.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of some messy US data which Wall Street is nervous about, but elsewhere most other countries are on the improve (China excepted).But first up today, the overnight dairy auction was another bad one with prices down -4.4% in USD terms and down -5.4% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -5.7% in USD terms. This is now serious. The recent downgrades to current season milk payout forecasts are going to get looked at again by the analysts. Since the peak in May, theses prices have dropped -25% and are down -17% from this time last year. We are in a full bear market for dairy prices. Making it worse is that we are now just past the seasonal peak of the milk curve, which will take the top off the country's export earnings. Yesterday's MPI SOPI is already out of date, and even that wasn't very positive about earnings from dairy exports.The catch up update of the US labour market didn't really reveal much or surprise many. It reported a steep drop in October and a half-bounce-back in November. The net result is a loss of -41,000 jobs over the period of the US Government shutdown. Not seasonally adjusted, there was a good +920,000 rise in employment from September to November, but this is far less than the +1,355 mln in the same 2024 period. Despite their unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and a four year high, their labour market isn't a net drag yet, but it is now getting close.The more current weekly jobs report from ADP recorded a small gain last week, but the prior week's gain was revised sharply lower.But overall, this latest jobs data is messy, and probably no help to the Fed when setting monetary policyMeanwhile US retail sales in October showed no gain from September to maintain their year-on-year +3.8% gain, just marginally ahead of current US inflation. These latest results have been dragged lower by declining car sales.The flash American December factory PMI came in positive, but only just and a six month low.Across the Pacific in Japan, their flash December PMI reported an increase in new orders supporting a rise in business activity. But their factory PMI isn't quite yet at expansion despite the improvement.In India, their factory PMI shows output rising strongly, but the momentum is showing signs of slowing. Most countries would love PMI's like they have however.In the Eurozone, business activity rose again in December to complete full calendar year of expansion. But their factory PMI dipped slightly to take the top off the result. Hurting was the re-emergence of inflationary pressure.The latest S&P Global PMI for Australia for December finds the factory sector expanding in a minor way and a little faster than in November helped by expanding new order levels. But the service sector is now expanding slower, in fact barely expanding.Staying in Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence retreated in December and by more than expected and into net negative territory. In fact, no change was expected. The survey found a sharp change in what is expected for mortgage rates, going from a expecting a fall, to now expecting them to rise. Views on the economic outlook and household finances have deteriorated, but those surveyed are still confident about the Australian labour market. Views on homebuying and house prices have been pared back.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +67 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$4297/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just under US$55.50/bbl and a new five year low, while the international Brent price is now just on US$59/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at just on 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62, and littel-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,541 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the US Fed is struggling with its diverging views ahead of tomorrow's catch up non-farm payrolls report. Wall Street is dipping in anticipation. The oil price is falling on concerns demand is weakening.Overnight, two Fed speakers were out delivering different views. Trump insert Stephen Miran essentially called affordability concerns overblown and reckoned the data doesn't show an affordability problem. Whereas NY Fed boss John Williams sees 'resilience' and on-going price pressures.Meanwhile, the latest regional Fed factory survey is from the New York region and it turned into a contraction in December after two months of expansion. It was an unexpected turn lower. New orders held steady, and inflation pressures eased, but activity declined noticeably.On the home building front, the widely watched national survey of home builders remained glum, even if it did improve marginally. This measure stayed in contraction for the 20th consecutive month. Builders are contending with higher construction costs, economic and tariff risks, and muted demand from buyers who cite affordability concerns.In Canada, their CPI inflation came in at 2.2% in the year to November, unchanged from October. However, food prices rose 4.2%. Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in November, consistent with the building permit trend we have noted before. But there are questions about whether that will last because November real estate sales were lower on volume and lower in price.In Japan, a series of Q4-2025 business sentiment surveys show good or rising confidence levels, now up to a four year high. This is true for large firms (recall our reports of how they are winning against the Trump tariff-taxes), the local services sector, and now a good jump for small businesses.In China, new home prices across their 70 major cities dropped -2.4% in November from a year ago, deepening from a 2.2% decline in the previous two months. The latest results are the 29th consecutive month of price drops and the steepest pace since August. Beijing is involved in a long struggle to overcome the seemingly endless weakness in their property sector. The price declines for housing resales are deeper, but not more sharp, even if they are just relentless.China's retail sales were notably weak in November, rising just +1.3% from a year ago and far below the expected +2.9% (with some expecting a +3.3% gain). This is a real cold-water moment for the Chinese economy and will undoubtedly bring emergency actions from Beijing. One reason for the weakness may have been the end of consumer goods subsidies, and the widespread expectation that they would be reinstated. Such subsidies are a trap on public finances.Chinese industrial production rose +4.8% in November, below the expected +5.0% rise and near the lowest growth level since late 2023. Despite its lowish level, there are reasons to be sceptical of even this level. (See next item.)But November electricity production in China was up only +2.7% from the same month a year ago, showing up the October year-on-year surge as an outlier.In India, their November exports rose while their imports fell, delivering a much smaller trade deficit for the month than was expected; in fact their lowest since June. And the November shifts were true for both goods and services.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.18%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4295/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday. And we should note that silver is up +US$1 at just over US$62/oz.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just on US$56.50/bbl and a five year low, while the international Brent price is now just over US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from yesterday, now at just over 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -20 bps from yesterday, shifted by a fall against the Japanese yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,357 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today dominated by the vile attack in Sydney, extremism begetting extremism all permitted by unfiltered hatreds flowing out from its center. Financial news seems trivial in light of this. Of course we won't be covering this Australian tragedy. But it is likely to harden attitudes just when they need to soften.In the meantime, we are noting tech weakness dominating equity markets, and Fed speaker comments (here and here) pushing long benchmark bond yields higher. The USD is soft and down nearly -1% for the week. But first, the week ahead will locally feature Wednesday's current account data, and more so by Thursday's GDP tracking of Q3-2025 economic activity. The final consumer and business confidence survey results will likely come this week too.In Australia on the economic front, it will be about tracking household wealth, also out on Thursday.In the US, they will release catch-up data for non-farm payrolls on Wednesday for both October (??) and November. (+35,000 expected) That will be followed by November CPI data (3.2% expected). A slew of other US activity data will hit the news as well.In Japan, financial markets will be glued to their central bank meeting results (expect a +25 bps rise to 0.75%) along with a 3%+ CPI reading. From China, they will have their big monthly data dump of retail and industrial activity. In India they will release a lot of data too, including PMIs, but then, we will also get PMIs from many other countries, including our own PSI as well.Over the weekend, China said its new loan demand remains unusually weak, and in November came in even lower than the weak forecasts by observers. Chinese banks extended ¥390 bln in new yuan loans, up from the unusually low October level but still below both last year’s weak ¥580 bln and market expectations of ¥500 bln. Soft household demand continues to weigh on stimulus efforts. Remember, over the past five years, this loan demand has averaged ¥830 bln in a November month so the current drag is notable.And it is looking increasingly like investors, including boardroom directors in charge of making capital expenditure decisions, have goner on a quiet strike in China.And staying in China, things just got worse for wavering China Vanke on Friday, once one of China's largest property developers. The Shenzhen-city controlled business was unable to get bondholder support for its latest financial restructuring. So current lenders took more of its assets as security.India's CPI inflation remains very low at +0.7% in November from a year ago, up from its record low level in October. This was driven by an almost -4% fall in food prices.India's bank loan growth is back up +11.5% from a year ago and its fastest expansion this year.In Malaysia, both their retail sales (+7.2% year-on-year) and their industrial production (+6.0%) expanded at an accelerating pace in October data released overnight.In Japan, it is becoming clear (from company financial reporting) that the Trump tariffs on Japanese exports have backfired. Japanese companies raised their prices after the initial tariff hit, the Americans paid the higher prices, and when Washington backed away from some of the more extreme levels after negotiation, and those hiked prices didn't retreat. They stayed up and boosted Japanese company profits. The picture was probably similar elsewhere. The ultimate losers have been the American buyers. American reshoring has been weak, so much so that one Fed member is now more worried about jobs than inflation.Canadian building consents surprised analysts with quite a surge in October, especially residential consents for multi-unit buildings in Toronto. That drove an outsized +15% national gain from September to be +19% higher than a year ago. On an annual basis, residential consents are also up +19% with Ontario up more than +28%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +6 bps from this time last week. The price of gold will start today at US$4299/oz, and up +US$5 from Saturday, up +US$84 from a week ago and back near its mid-October peak. And we should note that silver unchanged at US$62/oz.American oil prices are holding at just on US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$61/bbl. Both are -US$2.50 lower than a week ago. Separately, it is very noticeable that the North American rig counts are still languishing near their four year lows. No-one is rushing to invest as prices and demand stay very low.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from Saturday, now at just over 58 USc. But it is up +430 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's economy is handling the US tariff-tax buffeting quite well.Financial market reactions to the US Fed rate cut yesterday, and the nature of its split decision, has seen the USD fall, bonds shift to a risk averse tone, and Wall Street retreat, although it has recovered to break-even in the past hour. The oil price has fallen as demand estimates in the US fade.Today, in a very big shift, there were 313,100 actual initial jobless claims last week in the US which is the largest weekly rise since early in 2020. There are now 1.965 mln people on these benefits, +2% more than at this time last year.We should also note that the US home ownership rate in Q3-2025 was 65.3%. A year ago it was 65.6%. (In New Zealand it is 66.0%.) Their rental vacancy rate is now 7.1%, up from 6.9% a year ago.US wholesale inventories are rising according to late-released September data, now up +4.8% from a year ago. But their inventory-to-sales ratio isn't anywhere near concerning levels yet.US exports rose marginally in September, largely driven by the export of gold which accounted for 70% of the monthly rise. Computer exports fell, and travel receipts by visitors also retreated notably. Meanwhile imports into the US were little-changed. The shift of gold out enabled them to record their lowest trade deficit since 2020.In Canada however, their export growth was much stronger, and also featuring gold. Their exports jumped +6.3%, while imports were down -4.1%. That turned a trade deficit of -C$6.4 bln in August to a small trade surplus of +C$153 mln surplus in September and ending the 2025 negative monthly outcomes. Canada's exports of aircraft, and energy products (oil and electricity) rose significantly in September.Across the Pacific, Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to +4.7% in Q4-2025, up from 3.8% in the prior quarter and the strongest reading this year. This was better than expected, underscoring continued resilience despite trade frictions, growth concerns and their mounting fiscal risks.China has signaled that 2026 economic support from Beijing will be more modest than many had thought it would be.Switzerland reviewed its interest rate overnight and left it at 0%. They have inflation at +0.2%.We can also note the Central Bank of Turkey cut its policy rate by -150 bps to 38% overnight, a fourth consecutive reduction, and by more than markets expected. They claim inflation is starting to ease, especially food inflation. Overall inflation is still running over 30% pa, although that is half the rate of a year ago.In Australia, their November labour market report showed employment fell -21,300 (s.a.) from October, an unexpected result, but remained +182,400 higher than a year ago. Full-time employment fell -56,500 but part-time employment rose +35,200. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. Underemployment rose to 6.2%.Container freight rates rose +2% last week from the prior week, largely on the back of rising rates from China to the EU. Rates from China to the US are falling as trade volumes ease. These container rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bild cargo rates are +111% higher than year-ago levels, after last week's -14.8% fall off the recent peak.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, and up +US$70 from yesterday and back near its peak. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$64/oz with another big move.American oil prices are down almost -US$1 at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,977 and down another -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have essentially been on hold overnight awaiting the US Fed's decision.In the end, the Fed's FOMC trimmed its key rate by -25 bps to 3.75% as markets had guessed it would do. But it was not unanimous. The Trump stooge on the committee wanted a far larger cut. But the professional members fear inflation still and the small trim was the uneasy compromise. The voting was 9 members to cut by -25 bps, two to hold unchanged, and Miran wanting a big cut.Immediately after, the UST 10yr benchmark was active with a softish tone but really little-changed. the S&P500 rose, and the USD fell slightly. More reaction will come after Chairman Powell's press conference which is about to start soon.Earlier, the report on US mortgage applications was quite positive, up 4.8% last week from the week before which you may recall brought a small but unexpected retreat. The latest week however was all about refinance applications which were up +15% on that same prior week basis.An Q3-2025 data for US payroll compensation costs (pay plus payroll taxes plus benefits) were up +3.5% from a year ago, rising at about that rate in the latest quarter too. So American inflation isn't getting any respite from this direction.Quite how odd the US public policy has become is revealed in a current court case. US Federal prosecutors spent over a year extraditing a Belarusian woman to the US to face charges she illegally smuggled US tech to Russia for its war on Ukraine. Then ICE stepped in accusing her of being in the country illegally, and deported her, collapsing the case. Moscow smirked in satisfaction.In Canada, their central bank stood pat, holding their policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected. The say this is about the right level in the current uncertain environment. But they were surprised by the upside growth of GDP at +2.6% in the third quarter, found the labour market improvement better than anticipated as their unemployment rate fell. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October and they see core inflation remaining in the 2.5% to 3% range.Across the Pacific in China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.And the IMF has raised its forecast for growth of the Chinese economy for 2025 and 2026, now expecting to see an expansion of +5.0% this year.And some influential analysts are saying the Chinese yuan is 25% undervalued and will appreciate more than forwards contracts are pricing for 2026.And in the EU, the ECB boss Christine Lagarde says they will likely raise their forecast for EU growth as well.In Australia, if you are retired and have assets, you need to pay a tax on a deemed rate of interest on your assets (irrespective of what they actually earn, if anything). That rate depends on how many assets you have. They raised it in September 2025 and have now signaled they will raise it again in March.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, dipping -0.1 bp from this time yesterday and holding that after the Fed decision.The price of gold will start today at US$4204/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$61/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just om US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie though we are again essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,274 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is awash in better economic news today in many of the world's largest economies.First, the overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.In the US there were some key labour market reports out today. First the weekly ADP private payrolls update for last week recorded a small +5000 gain which follows five consecutive weeks where they recorded more than a -27,000 loss of jobs (which was consistent with what they reported for the November month).And the catch-up JOLTS report for October showed little-change from September, but job openings were a little higher than anticipated for both months.And the widely watched SME sentiment survey from the NFIB was marginally better than expected, up slightly from October, but just back to the levels it has been at since May although that still leaves it at a slight net negative. Interestingly, the retail Redbook survey eased back a bit last week to the average rise it has recorded since later 2023, which mirrors retail inflation that is juiced by tariff-taxes. It is perhaps an indicator that the Thanksgiving seasonal retail was not as strong as hoped.There is more evidence that Trump is just plain dumb. After his failure to get the Chinese to buy US soybeans at scale, he is rolling out US$16 mln in taxpayer support for some farmers which will actually be very little for most. Now he is threatening swingeing tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports of potash, oblivious that even if that blocks cheap Canadian imports, it will leave high-priced local product, with a net loss for farmers, probably exceeding US$15 bln. Even a high school economics student can see the flaws in his approach, which embeds higher costs on Americans.Trump has also handed China a huge AI chip win, agreeing to let Nvidia sell its best stuff to China. This will allow China to close the gap on the US AI advantages much faster now. The US security community is gobsmacked. China may not buy a lot, but it doers give them access to the technology.In Japan, machine tool orders were strong in November, up +14.2% from a year ago continuing expanded growth over the past seven months. But domestic demand actually fell. It was foreign orders that were the star here, up by +23%.Next week, there will be an important central bank meeting in Tokyo. Overnight remarks by the Bank of Japan governor seemed to set the groundworks for another rate rise on the basis that inflation is embedding, especially wage inflation, and that the risks of deflation there are receding on a permanent basis. Japanese long term interest rates are now approaching 2% and a twenty year high..Taiwanese exports were exceptionally strong again, as we have come to expect. They surged +56% in November from a year ago to a record US$64 bln, up from a 49% gain in October and again better that market expectations for a 41% rise. It is strong global demand for their chips and AI technology that is powering these amazing results.German exports also rose in October, a surprise because that had risen strongly in September and a small correction was expected.We get US export data on Friday, and in contrast to Japan, Germany, Taiwan and China, they are currently expected to show a retreat.In Australia, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at Tuesday's review as expected. Their review was slightly more hawkish, firmly focused on the upside risks to inflation. And that is what financial markets reacted to with bond yields rising as a result.And staying in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped in November from October, but stayed just positive, although the weakest reading since April. The survey showed business conditions softened after declines in sales and profitability.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4217/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday. And we should note that silver has set a new record high, over US$60/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1 again at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl. Analysts are sow saying a 'super glut' of oil is on the way, and downward price pressures will rise from here.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie though we are essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.1, and also up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,444 and up

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.In the US, the top-line survey of inflation expectations seems stable at a highish 3.2% for the year ahead, 3.0% for 5 years ahead. But within that are some signals that have garnered attention. Expectations for food rose to 5.9%, petrol climbed to 4.1%, medical care surged to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased to 8.4%, and rent jumped to 8.3%. The main reason the overall lid remained is that house price expectations fell. The survey indicated that consumers expect a worsening financial situation.The failure of the Trump Administration to get a deal out of China for agricultural exports is seeing them scrambling to support their farmers with direct subsidies.There was another US Treasury auction today, the ever-popular 3 year Note. But offer volumes fell more than -7% for this event. It delivered a median yield of 3.57%, little-changed from the 3.54% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Japan, a powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 struck northeastern Japan late Monday night, with aaa a tsunami warning for coastal areas of Hokkaido issued.Japan’s GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.In China, they released November trade data overnight and their exports rose by +5.9% from a year ago to an eleven-month high, much better than the expected +3.8% rise and recovering from the -1.1% fall in October. There was a notable surge in exports to non-US markets. A lower than expected rise in imports delivered at trade balance exceeding +US$110 for the month and extending their rise that started with the Trump challenge in late 2024. Separation from the US has delivered a rising export dividend for China. For the eleven months of 2025 so far, the Chinese trade surplus has now exceeded US$1 tln.Over all of 2025 to the US, their exports fell -18% and their imports fell -13%. To Australia, China's exports are up +8% while imports are down -8%. To New Zealand, China's exports are up +4% while their imports are up +10%.As good as these export numbers are for China, they are also going into debt at an equally impressive rates. China’s central government will likely issue more than CNY12 tln (US$1.7 tln) of new debt in 2026, with a fiscal deficit ratio of at least 4%. There is alarm in some quarters as the expansionist policies get the official tick..In Europe, German industrial production rose +1.8% in October from September, sharply outperforming market expectations for a -0.4% decline. It was the strongest monthly gain since March. Year on year it is up +0.8%. The Germans measure this metric in real, inflation-adjusted terms.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4191/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc, down -10 bps. Against the Aussie though we are up +10 bps at just on 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,846 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term global bond yields are rising.The coming week will be one dominated by the final central bank monetary policy decisions of the year. The big one, the one that will likely move markets, is the US one on Thursday NZT. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 3.75%. There will also be central bank decisions from Canada (Thursday, no change expected), Switzerland (Friday, no change), Australia (Tuesday, no change), Brazil (Thursday, no change), and Turkey (Friday, -100 bps).This week will also feature China releasing a series of key November economic data including for exports (expected to be strong), CPI inflation (expected to rise marginally but stay very low), PPI (still in deflation). Monetary and debt data will also be closely watched. In Japan, it will be all about their Q3 GDP, PPI, and machine tool orders.In India, markets will focus on November inflation data.In Australia, apart from the expected no-change RBA decision, labour market data will likely show their jobless rate edging up, and business confidence surveys are expected to be broadly stable.At the end of last week bond markets kept pushing up long term yields. The rise of Japanese long bond yields has this market concerned. But that just comes on top of where US fiscal stability is heading.In the US, personal income data is in catch-up mode with September details released over the weekend. Income was up +1.9% from a year ago while personal expenditures were up +2.1% on the same basis. Their PCE version of inflation was +2.8% and rising. There are no real surprises in this now-old data.Meanwhile US consumer debt rose +2.2% or +US$9.2 bln in October, less than expected and less than the September rise. Revolving debt (like credit cards) rose at an annual rate of +4.9%. Non-revolving debt which includes car and student loans was up +1.2%.Earlier, the University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey reported it didn't fall from November, posting a small, probably insignificant gain. That leaves it -28% lower than a year ago. Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month. Despite the nominal improvements, the overall levels across the board remain quite dismal for most consumers there.Canada reported payroll data for November over the weekend and rather than the expected -5000 dip, they got a +53,600 gain in overall employment. But unfortunately for them, all the gains were in part-time employment (+63,000) with full time jobs shrinking -9,400.This extended better-than-expected labour market report is one of the reasons the IMF's latest review of Canada was quite positive. They are impressed by how Canada is handling the attempted-trashing it has been getting from the US.In China, their foreign exchange reserves, already very large, climbed to US$3.346 tln in November and fractionally less than expected. It was the fourth straight month of increases, to the highest level since November 2015 and it happened even though the US dollar weakened. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China continued to add to its gold holdings for the thirteenth consecutive month, with reserves edging up to 74.1 mln troy ounces in November and their value rose +4.5% in a month (in USD).In India, and as expected, their central bank cut its key repo rate by -25 bps to 5.25% at its Friday meeting. They claim confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of -125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.In Japan, household personal spending fell unexpectedly in October, and quite hard. It was down -2.9% from a year ago, way different to the market expectations of a +1.0% rise, and reversing a +1.8% gain in September. It was the first decline since April. From September, personal spending fell -3.5%, and starkly different from the expected +0.7% rise.In Germany, factory orders rose +1.5% in October from September, better than the expected +0.5% gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in the previous month. From a year ago, their factory orders are down -0.7% however. The latest data was boosted by a very large (+87%) jump in orders for large equipment like aircraft, ships, and trains. There was also a +12% rise in metal production and processing. In contrast, demand for electrical equipment fell -16%. These are all quite big moves with the overall change.Globally, the FAO says its Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month in November, with all indices but cereals down. Dairy prices were down -1.6% from a year ago, down -11.5% from their June peak. Meat prices were up +5.0% from a year ago but down -2.7% from their recent September peak.It is probably worth noting that the Argentine wheat crop is goi

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a strong of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nine months for this metric. The continued expansion in both business activity and new orders drove this outcome. Similarly, the S&P Global version for the US service sector reported an expansion although less than in October. Both surveys noted high embedded inflation however.US industrial production rose +0.1% in September from August, following a downwardly revised -0.3% drop in August. This means from a year ago, American industrial production is up +1.6%. Better than a decline but nothing like how the tariff-effects were sold. This activity was far better in the Obama years.But the ADP private sector payrolls report for November brought tough news. Businesses cut -32,000 jobs in November, following an upwardly revised +47,000 gain in October. Analysts were expecting this report to show a +10,000 rise based on ADP's weekly reporting. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by a -120,000 drop at small businesses. We won't get the official non-farm payrolls report for November until December 17 (NZT), in its delayed restart.And the volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by -1.4% from the previous week in the last week of November to the lowest level in nearly three months. And that happened even though the key mortgage rates fell to a four week low.US vehicle sales were modest in November. They rose from October to 15.6 mln units but that is a long way down from the 16.7 mln in November 2024.Across the Pacific in China, their services sector continues to expand, driven by a sustained increase in new business, though the expansion slowed since October.China's local government debt continues to balloon as the lingering real estate slump has led to decreased income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high. The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles that fund their projects now sits at a remarkable ¥134 tln (NZ$33 tln).In the EU, producer prices were little changed in October from September, but from a year ago they have dipped -0.2%. So no inflation pressures from this direction.In Australia, their economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$663/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have also held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,535 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is in a slowdown period as the globally large economies show signs of culminating.But we start today with some tough news. The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large have happened before since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today's event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn't positive.The OECD says global economic growth to ease to +2.9% in 2026 from +3.2% in 2025 as tariffs, weak trade and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on activity. In the US, growth is projected to slow to +2.0% in 2025 and +1.7% in 2026. For China, they see economic growth of +5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Consumption will be dampened by high precautionary savings and the payback effect of the now winding down trade-in program.For New Zealand they said after contracting in 2024, the economy is projected to expand by +0.7% in 2025, +1.8% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027. Growth will be supported by lower interest rates, improving household real incomes, buoyant tourism, and firm commodity export earnings. However, weak confidence, high energy costs, easing net immigration, and elevated uncertainty surrounding trade restrictions are expected to remain headwinds to the near-term recovery. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target band, easing towards 2%. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from its peak in 2025.For Australia, they said economic growth is now strengthening and becoming more private-sector-driven. GDP growth is projected to quicken to +2.3% in 2026 and 2027, up from 1.8% in 2025. This is consistent with a gradual closing of the small negative output gap, keeping unemployment low while allowing inflation to remain close to target. Risks are balanced, with downside risks from a greater-than-expected softening of labour market conditions while, on the upside, strengthening disposable incomes could bring a faster acceleration of private consumption.The signals in the US were not as negative today. The RCM/TIPP economic optimism Index recovered in December from is sharp November dip. But to be fair, this only returns it to the below-average levels it reported from March to October.But that rebound was not seen in their logistics sector. The Logistics Manager’s Index eased back to its slowest growth in the sector since June 2024. The slowdown is driven by a continued softening of inventory and warehousing metrics but tempered by some expansion in transportation. Warehousing utilisation contracted for the first time in the 9-year history of the index.However, by some accounts the US holiday retail activity was strong, especially for online trade. Shoppers there spent US$14 bln online on Cyber Monday, pushing total online sales over the Thanksgiving weekend to US$44 bln. Spending rose +7.7% during the so-called Cyber Week - the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday - compared with an +8.2% increase to $41 bln last year and above its prior expectations of $43.7 bln.Across the Pacific, Japanese consumer confidence rose sharply in November from October to its best level since April 2024, with all components improving:In the EU, inflation is running in their sweet spot. Euro area consumer price inflation rose to +2.2% in November, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above market expectations of 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to +3.5% however (from 3.4%) and its highest level since April, while energy prices declined at a slower pace.In Australia, and after a big September surge, October's residential building permit levels were expected to be tame by comparison. But in the event it was negative and the September rise was revised lower. And that meant the annual level of consents to October were lower than a year ago and its first year-on-year retreat since June 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.10%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4186/oz, and down -US$47 from yesterday. Silver has held up at US$58/oz.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$62.50/bbl. And we should note that natural gas prices dropped back yesterday after the prior day surge.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at a faster pace. Survey respondents cite problems with the tariff-taxes, and "trade confusion". And they report high price pressure, and rising The November result is below the deterioration expected. It's a result that has cast a pall over Wall Street today.But the ISM report is only one perspective. The rival S&PGlobal factory PMI reported a November expansion, even a modest rise in new orders. But it also noted that a lot of this 'positive activity' is related to inventory building which won't be sustainable without final customer demand. Financial markets seemed to ignore this alternate PMI.The Canadian factory PMi wasn't positive either for November which reported a marginal contraction. Interestingly, it also reported lower inflation pressures.These two North American factory PMIs feed into a global report that has overall output and new orders rising at slower rates but business optimism rising to a five-month high.In India, their October report for industrial production brought an unexpectedly sharp slowdown, hardly above year-ago levels when +4% year-on-year gains had become the norm for the past two years. We will need to wait for their November result to see if October was just an aberration. They will be hoping so.In Japan, their central bank governor has been speaking and has hinted that a rate hike at their next meeting on December 19 is a live possibility. (see pages 6 & 7.)In China, the alternative PMI to the official version has also slipped in a similar way. The S&PGlobal manufacturing sector PMI shows that conditions deteriorated in November, not by a lot, but certainly going the wrong way. There was no growth in new orders.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for November rose again and is now further above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target range. Interestingly, while this result is higher, it is lower than the official October CPI rate of 3.8%.After a -2.6% quarter-on-quarter fall in Australian company profits in Q2-2025, they were expected to bounce back in Q3-2025. But in the event they stalled, unchanged, in a disappointing outcome and only +1.1% higher than year-ago levels.And staying in Australia, the Cotality house price tracking rose +1.0% in November, a slight softening from the +1.1% gain in October. Annual growth lifted to +7.1%, with quarterly gains tracking a +13.2% annualised pace. Sydney and Melbourne are the laggards, indicating that affordability has reached its serviceability limits.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.09%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4233/oz, and up just +US$15 from yesterday. But silver has surged again to a new record high of US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$63/bbl. And we should probably also note that natural gas prices are rising and are now at their highest except for the pandemic period.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just under 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,426 and down -7.0%% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at just on +/- 4.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and the Aussies will release the Q3-2025 GDP growth rate, expected to be +2.2% from a year agoIn the US, there will be more catch-up official data releases but their non-farm payroll data for November has been delayed until mid-December now. However ADP will release its new weekly update and the Challenger job cut report will still come out on time. There will be PMIs for the US and no-one expects much change in any of this. Of special interest will be the end-of-week release of the UofM sentiment survey. Few see any improvement there either with it hovering around record lows.Elsewhere there will be a raft of PMI and trade and inflation releases from many countries. And the Indian central bank meets and is widely expected to cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% despite the surging growth. Fast-falling food prices means inflation is seen as under control there.Over the weekend India said their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate rise since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28%, to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.China said its official November PMIs were weaker and their tepid expansion has turned into a general but small contraction. The main change was for their services sector, shrinking for the first time in three years and joining the ongoing small contraction in their factory sector. That factory sector has now contracted for eight straight months. Both measures would be a lot worse if they didn't have deflation in their input costs. The private S&PGlobal version isn't expected to vary much from that when it is released later today, although it may be on the more positive side. Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.Japan said retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an unexpected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.In Canada, they released their September GDP growth outcome over the weekend and their forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.Early reports of US retail trade over the weekend seem positive, but heavily focused online.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02%, unchanged from Saturday but down -5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$7 from Saturday. And that is a +US$134/oz rise for the week, or +3.2%.Silver surged in Friday US trade to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. A Comex outage in the US didn't help either.American oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.4 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are little-changed overnight at just on 87.6 AUc. Against th

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economy has one month to go to bolster its 2025 economic performance, all down to retail sales now.First, of course, the US is now in its Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the start of their big retail period until Christmas. A lot rides on the consumer spending activity in this period. It is an impulse with global impact. But the lead-in has not been helpful about giving clues on how it will turn out.Meanwhile, Canadian average weekly earnings came in stronger than expected, up +3.1% in September from a year ago and a touch higher than the August +2.7% rise on the same basis. It was a broad-based rise. It is not a bad result for them given their CPI rise was +2.4% in September, and fell to +2.2% in October, so their earnings are recording real gains.The 'Buy Canadian' movement will be getting the ultimate test this weekend during the 'Black Friday' sales period.In China, industrial profits dropped -5.5% in October from a year ago, taking the top off the +22% jump in September. and the +13% rise in August, and being the first slowdown in growth in three months. A quarter of all companies are now posting losses, a record high. The cost of debt is also a reason some are noting that profits are under pressure. And that may loom larger, because Beijing as told their SOE banks to lend more to other SOEs to prop up consumption demand.We can also see office rents in major cities falling, vacancy rates rising, as pain spreads in the commercial property sector. Vanke is wobbling more now. And separately, despite high sales and rapid growth, Chinese car manufacturers are suffering record low margins. Their industry is very vulnerable to a demand slowdown.In Taiwan, consumer sentiment edged up in October from September, but it is still quite low and far lower than year-ago levels. They haven't got back anywhere near the level they started the year with. Relentless mainland pressure to 'unify' and kill their independence isn't helping.The Bank of Korea held its base policy rate at 2.5% at today's meeting, the final policy session of the year. It did this despite concerns over the broader Korean economic outlook, including a persistent property market slump and a volatile currency.In Malaysia, producer prices were little-changed in October, essentially ending the deflation they had in the prior seven months.In the EU, overall economic sentiment held as did consumer inflation expectations. They are modest and back to pre-pandemic levels in a stable mode and putting behind them the rather strong deflationary expectations over the past two years. That sanguine view was reinforced by the release overnight of the ECB meeting minutes. They seem happy with where they are at and no rate changes seem imminent.In Australia, prudential regulator APRA has said it will limit high debt-to-income home loans to constrain riskier lending that is starting to show up in that market. Some of it has been induced by the Canberra government's taxpayer-subsidised 5% deposit guarantee scheme.And staying in Australia, new private capital spending is rising and more quickly than expected. The rise was largely driven by non-mining industries, which recorded a +13.0% jump, while spending on mining equipment and machinery grew just +4.5%.Global container freight rates dipped -2% last week to be -47% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are a touch weaker while trans-Atlantic rates a touch stronger. However, bulk freight rates have risen +6.0% over the past week and are now sitting a touch over +50% higher than year ago levels and are back to levels we last saw briefly in November 2023, and prior to that during the pandemic.The UST 10yr yield is still just on 4.00% with US markets closed.The price of gold will start today at US$4156/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen almost +US$1 from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up, but less, now just over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +30 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just over 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and up +30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,468 and up +4.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news notable data in both Australia and New Zealand yesterday has reset our currencies and our benchmark interest rates.In New Zealand of course it was the market reaction to the RBNZ OCR cut, in Australia it was the unexpected rise in their CPI inflation. Both had a cumulative impact in both countries.But first. American mortgage applications has week were little-changed, but refinance activity softened noticeably while new purchase activity was firm, despite mortgage interest rates creeping up.Actual US initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 last week from the prior week's 218,300, but that puts them almost identical to year-ago levels. Continuing claims are now 1,796,000, +4.3% higher than year-ago levels.Catch-up data for US durable goods orders for September was mildly positive from August but were a good +9.6% higher than year-ago levels. Excluding aircraft and defence orders, capital goods orders were little-changed from a year ago.More current, the Chicago PMI came in much more negative in November than the weak October level with weakness building in new order levels, production, and employment. It is now down approaching ten-year lows.We get the Fed's Beige Book later this morning and it too is expected to report weaker conditions. Of special interest will be what they found in these surveys on inflation pressures.Across the Pacific, Singapore reported strong rises in industrial production, rising +29% from a year ago an that was their largest gain in over ten years.In Hong Kong we should note a tragedy. A massive fire has engulfed multiple high-rise residential blocks in Hong Kong's northern Tai Po district overnight, killing at least 36 people with hundreds still missing They struggled to bring the blaze under control.In Australia, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September and above expectations of a 3.6% increase. It is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025. They are likely to get rate hikes in 2026 now.And staying in Australia, total construction work fell -0.7% in Q3-2025 from the prior quarter, missing expectations for a +0.4% rise. But it held its year-on-year +2.9% growth in Q3. The quarterly downturn was driven primarily by a sharp drop in engineering work based around infrastructure projects.Here in New Zealand, yesterday's Monetary Policy Statement brought a more hawkish tone than financial markets were expecting and that caused a rethink in how interest rate pricing was set, resulting in a rise across the board in rates.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.00%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4166/oz, and up +US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a sharpish +80 bps from yesterday, now at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at just under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +60 bps to 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6, and up a significant +80 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,560 and up +0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.In the US, S&P Ratings has downgraded its stability rating of stablecoin Tether to 'Weak", concerned it is undercollateralised - that is, it no longer has the backing to maintain is USD peg.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a rather sharp -4% for WMP. This will keep downward pressure on pay-out forecasts for the current season, especially the WMP result.In the US, the ADP weekly employment report said a net -13,500 US jobs were lost last week, the largest weekly drop since ADP started releasing their weekly data. The pace of payroll shrinkage seems to be rising in the US.American retail sales growth slowed to +4.3% in September from the + 5.0% rise in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose +0.2%, half the expected +0.4% increase and suggesting the weakness is concentrated recently. Observers will be watching the weak car sales component, especially.Producer prices rose +2.7% in September from a year earlier, exactly as expected.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in October from year-ago levels, the second consecutive monthly dip, and the eighth of 2025. However they did record a seasonal rise from September.The latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed covering the mid-Atlantic states was quite negative.And the Dallas Fed services survey was downbeat too, although the contraction there was at a slower pace than in October.So it will be no surprise to learn that the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey was also quite negative, falling sharply and mirroring the similar University of Michigan survey. Perceptions of inflation rose, to 4.8%.And traditional Thanksgiving travel plans are being scaled back. They were expecting a rise this year, but the economic situation and uncertainties about disruptions are seeing an unexpected rise in cancellations, so a decline is now anticipated.Across the Pacific in South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.In Taiwan, retail sales rose +1.9% in October from the same month a year ago, a bounce-back from the -1.6% dip in September. Meanwhile their industrial production expanded sharply again, up another +14.5% on that same year-on-year basis, although the pace of expansion seems to be slowing a bit even if it is strong.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.00%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday to 3.99% as a defensive mood takes hold.The price of gold will start today at US$4138/oz, and up +US$42 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 from yesterday to be just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just under 56.1 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just under 87 AUc. Against the euro we have dropped -20 bps to 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, and little-changed if soft.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,996 and down -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.Today, the RBNZ will review the OCR and issue its final Monetary Policy Statement of the year. Join us from 2pm when we will start our full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.In Australia, they will implement age-restrictions for social media platforms on December 10, almost all of them American-owned and all enabling unrestricted criminal communications that also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8, and down a bit less than -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear how it will affect fixed home loan rates. After that, we will get the local consumer and business sentiment updates.In Australia, the key data release this week will be Wednesday's monthly CPI data for October, expected to dip from 3.5% to 3.3%.Elsewhere there will be a lot of data from the US early in the week as they clear the decks with shutdown-delayed data before they go on their four-day Thanksgiving weekend break. Other countries will be releasing GDP and inflation data too.In China, attention will turn to October industrial profits and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for November. In Japan, markets will focus on October labour and industrial production data. In India, GDP figures are expected to show that the economy grew at a slightly slower pace in July to September 2025, though most analysts still anticipate growth above 7%. The Bank of Korea will review its policy rate too but no change is expected.Over the weekend, China reported that its foreign direct investment inflows were still struggling in October, but they were at least positive in the month. They rose marginally more in the October 2025 month than in the weak October 2024 month. For all of 2025 so far, these flows are still -10% lower that the same period last year.In India, their very strong economic activity expansion eased in November, but only slightly and is still rocketing along at a very fast pace in both their services and factory sectors. But of note here is that price pressures are easing.Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.And the Bank of Japan is close to raising their policy interest rate above the current 0.5% when they next meet on December 18, 2025. If not then, then in the January meeting.In Europe, ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating one notch to “Baa2” (ie BBB) and revised its outlook from positive to stable. They said Italy's consistent track record of political and policy stability has allowed their first upgrade in 23 yearsIn the US, the S&P Global factory PMI dipped but is still reporting an expansion (51.9). Their services sector expanded faster to a moderate level (55.0), and this was better than expected. Of concern however is that these surveys report input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting its fastest rate for three years. Of course, tariff-taxes were the predominant reason cited. It may seem unlikely there would be a rate cut on December 11 (NZT) when the Fed next meets, but one important Fed member does still see a cut possibility.Business activity might be expanding, but American consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey confirms it is now at record lows. The final November survey reports consumers are very frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. The spoils of expansion and success are accruing to a very few which is building a toxic divide there. Holiday weekend retail sales data will tell us a lot about how most American consumers are feeling about the lead-in to 2026.On the trade front, it appears the much-heralded resumption of soybean purchases by China from the US, isn't happening apart from token trades.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -8 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4064/oz, and down -US$20 from Saturday. But down -US$34 for the week.American oil prices have largely held from Saturday to be just on US$58/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62.50/bbl. These are both down -US$2 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from Saturday but down -70 bps for the week. So far in November it has devalued by -2.3%. Against the Aussie we are holding at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9, little-changed from Saturday, but down -50 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,576 and up +2.3% from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$95,780 so it is down -9.9% since then.. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affe

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance activity was the hardest hit. Still, it and purchase application levels remain well above year-ago levels.There was also official data released overnight, old catchup data for the US trade balance for both goods and services. That came in at the expected -US$50 bln deficit for August, exports flat, imports also flat. That was slightly better than August 2024 but almost identical to August 2023.And there will be no October jobs report from the US. It has been cancelled, officially because they "couldn't collect some data", but more likely because it would have delivered news the White House didn't want.Meanwhile reports circulate that the US is not only rolling back tariff-taxes on food imports, it is also close to rolling them back on steel and aluminium, maybe like the food rollback, somewhat selectively.The latest US Treasury 20 year bond auction raised US$17.8 bln at a median yield of 4.65%, up from 4.46% at the prior equivalent auction a month ago.The US Fed minutes of their last meeting on October 30 are due to be released at 8AM NZT. There is intense interest in these, more so because Trump as one acolyte in on the meetings pushing for [dangerous] rate cuts. If there is important stuff that emerges, we will update this item here.In Japan, September machinery orders rose a better-than-expected +11.6% from the same month a year earlier, up an impressive +4.2% from August. (This result is not twisted by large, volatile items like for ships or major infrastructure machinery such as electric power plants. That would have pushed the rise even higher.) Export orders were particularly notable.And Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.77% on Wednesday, a 17-year high. A year ago it was at 1.06%. The recent climb comes ahead of a crucial ¥800 bln debt auction (US$5.1 bln) that could indicate investor appetite signals. That is important because the new Takaichi government plans major debt-financed stimulus which is raising fiscal concerns.Meanwhile, China has raised US$8.6 bln in USD and EUR bonds. While that is a lot for them, it pales compared to the US$234 bln that was bidIn Malaysia, they are still an export powerhouse with October exports up +15.7% from a year ago and to a record high, imports up +11.2%, also a record high, resulting in a larger positive trade balance than expected. In fact, they haven't run a trade deficit in any month since the pandemic.As expected, the Indonesian central bank left its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 4.75%.In Australia, payroll costs rose pretty much as expected in the September quarter. They were up +3.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. Public sector wages increased +3.8%, slightly above the +3.7% rise in Q2, while private sector wages grew by +3.2%, easing from +3.4% previously. (Overall, total wages and salaries for all employees rose +5.3% for the year to September, boosted by an expanding workforce.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4071/oz, and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price down to under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and down -50 bps from yesterday, to its lowest since July 2009.And we probably should note that the NZD has now fallen below 4 Chinese renminbi for the first time in three years.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,524 and down a sharp -4.2% from yesterday and well lower than year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was down -3.0% in USD terms, more because that makes it seven declines in a row from early August, taking the cumulative drop to -13%. And the recent retreats seem to be getting more intense. We now have prices lower than year-ago levels. And the decline in USD is being matched by the decline in NZD now, down -2.9% in this latest event.Clearly analysts will be dusting off their current season payout forecasts because they are risk of being downgraded. Behind the softness is a faster-than-expected rise in dairy production levels due to good weather conditions globally. That is as true for New Zealand as anywhere, where milk production is rising. The pointy end of this pressure is the butter price, and that dropped -7.6% at this latest auction. WMP was down a lesser -1.9%, SMP down only -0.6%.In the US, the ADP weekly payrolls report delivered another drop, the one for the week to November 1 not as sharp as the prior week however. This data suggests the US labour market lost momentum in late October, with a number of large companies announcing job cuts during the month, including Amazon and Target.Official data releases are being restarted in the US, but the data is old now. Overnight they said August factory orders rose to be +2.0% higher than year-ago levels. But because this is not inflation-adjusted and the past US PPI rise was +2.6%, it probably means shrinkage in real terms. There has been no indication this things have improved from August.And restarted official jobless claims data is only for October 18, but it rose then to +232,000 and above the expected level of +223,000. Continuing claims were a touch under 2 mln (1.96 mln) and notably above the 1.85 mln in the same week in 2024.The US NAHB housing market index came in essentially unchanged for October from September and -17% lower than year-ago levels. But they will be pleased it didn't drop back.Yesterday we reported a good improvement for factories in the New York region. But today the report for the very much bigger services sector in the same region has remained very negative.We could perhaps note that the Atlanta Fed monitors home loan affordability for the US is a similar way we do for New Zealand. They say that in September 2025, 43% of take-home pay was required to service an American mortgage and that is 'unaffordable'. They say affordability starts when it is 30% or less. (Our New Zealand September HLA was 33.0%.)In Canada, housing starts dropped sharply in October to their lowest in six month and to levels lower than the same month a year agoThe Australian central bank released the minutes of its last meeting on November 4 yesterday, closely-watched because they have rising inflation and a relatively strong labour market. But they downplayed both aspects, calling them 'slight' and expecting them to be transitory. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. They said patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. Basically, you don't learn anything by reading these minutes.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4061/oz, and down -US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened very slightly from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price down -50 USc to US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.2, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,460 and down -0.4% from yesterday and it is still lower than year-ago levels. At one point in the past 24 hours it dipped below US$90,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lower than that.In Canada their inflation rate dipped slightly in October to 2.2% from 2.4% in September, and far less than the 3.0% and rising inflation rate last reported in their southern neighbour. Canadian petrol prices fell sharply, and the steam seems to have gone out of their grocery prices.Meanwhile, foreign investors are finding Canadian securities attractive, raising theri holdings sharply. They increased them by +C$31.3 bln in September, an unusual spike for a month that usually attracts only modest levels. Canadians themselves are choosing local securities increasingly too, in a substantial out-of-cycle rise of their own.In China, there is increasing talk that the weekend's very soft economic data will bring rate cuts to their loan prime rates when they are next reviewed on Thursday, even a cut in their reserve ratio requirement of banks. Both are currently at record low levels already.In something of a big positive surprise, Singapore's October non-oil exports rose sharply to S$17.2 bln, up more than +23% from year-ago levels up +15% from September. That is up from the +7% rise in September. Their non-oil exports to Thailand rose a massive +91%, to Taiwan a massive +61%, to South Korea by +38%. Going the other way, their exports to the US dropped -12%, and to both China and Japan were virtually unchanged.India exports fell almost -12% in October from a year ago, but Indian imports surged more than +16% in the same month. Indian exports to the US fell notably. That has resulted in a huge merchandise trade deficit blowout of -US$41.7 bln and by far and away their largest trade deficit. Fortunately they run trade surpluses for services, but even after than it was still a record -US$22 bln deficit and more than double year-ago levels.And we should note that aluminium prices, which are already very high, are likely to rise further on tight supply. Rio Tinto is adding surcharges on shipments to the US, where prices are globally elevated anyway due to tariffs, due to the supply shortage and the need for American to have to pay to get the product. That cascades through to consumer prices and inflation. These cost increases will be particularly troublesome for US-made cars.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4067/oz, and down -US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have held from yesterday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,687 and down -0.5% from yesterday and it is now lower than year-ago levels. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then the US Fed will release the minutes of its October 30 meeting and observers will be looking for similar clues.Locally we will get another full dairy auction, and trade data this week, preceded this morning by the REINZ October results at 9am.Trade, inflation and PMI data will be coming from a range of countries. From the US, we await how they will be catching up with their official data releases. There will be the usual prosaic private sector data releases but the new weekly ADP employment data will bring intense interest, as will some earnings reports, especially from Nvidia.There will be little major data this coming week from China, because they released most of it this past weekend. And that was headlined by an big unexpected negative surprise from their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of their domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the resulting defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September, officially, but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.In India, bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.In Canada, they released some September data over the weekend and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data sets indicate remarkable resilience, and their fast transition even after being dumped-on capriciously by the US.And there was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).In the US there are clear signs investors are getting quite skittish about the risks of bonds tied to AI companies. Don't forget bonds have priority over equities, so the dive for insurance on bonds isn't a great sign. Bloomberg is reporting the demand for credit default swaps is surging for these bonds and they cite what is happening in Oracle's case. A surge in debt is expected to flood debt markets soon as these AI companies ramp up funding of their plans.And there is the news that Trump is now rolling back some of his tariff-taxes, because even he can see they have caused household inflation and the 'affordability crisis' he is being blamed for. US inflation pressure is moving the dial in money markets. The chance of a Fed rate cut on December 11 (NZT) is fading, and quite qui

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that we have unexpectedly weak data from China and unexpectedly strong data from Australia.But first in the US, it is back to work for their Federal government after the record 43 day shutdown impasse ends - at least until January 30 when the current deal needs renewal again. Missed official data releases there may in fact be skipped, so there may not be a catch-up until the next scheduled releases.Meanwhile, American companies continue with their big job cuts.Across the Pacific in China, their new yuan loan levels for October came in unexpectedly weak. They dropped sharply to just ¥220 bln, down from ¥1.3 tln in September and ¥500 bln in October last year. Markets had expected ¥500 bln, so the actual data underscores the continued weakness in credit demand. To put it in perspective, apart from July's unusual dip, this October result is their weakest of any month in at least ten years.After a disappointing retreat in August, EU industrial production bounced back far less in September than expected. It is now only +1.2% higher (real) than a year ago, less than the expected +2.1% rise most analysts had anticipated. They will be disappointed, but for them at least it is still growing in real terms.In Australia, they delivered another very strong set of employment data with jobs expanding by +42,200 and full time jobs expanding by +55,300. Their jobless rate fell more than expected to 4.2% (NZ is 5.3%.) This, along with inflation above target, will have the RBA thinking hard about their December 9 cash rate target which is currently 3.6%. Aussie bond yields spiked higher on the news, taking the NZGB yields up with them.Australian consumer inflation expectations slipped slightly to 4.5% in November from 4.8% in October, the lowest reading since August. Actual CPI inflation in September came in at 3.5%.Also in Australia, the opposition Liberal Party has dumped its commitment to net zero policies, a capitulation that will likely isolate it further from the electorate. It will now really struggle to hold its big city electorates from spirited challenges by teal candidates. In an odd 'compromise' they committed to staying in the Paris Agreement, but without Net Zero that is just greenwashing which will fool no-one. We are probably witnessing the demise of a political party that once was their 'natural' governing political force. Australia will now need a proper liberal opposition to Labor, maybe one born out of the teals.Just as the Aussie Liberals were making that Trumpish decision, the IEA released its 2025 World Energy Outlook. It concluded that technology has moved so far so fast that "options to reduce emissions substantially are well understood and, in many cases, cost effective." From here, staying with fossil fuels will come with cost penalties.Globally, freight rates for containerised cargoes dipped -5% this past week mainly on China-US rates, although China-EU rates rose marginally. Overall that makes them -46% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates are little-changed this week, to be +25% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4198/oz, up another +US$8 from this time yesterday. It is rising again but it is still below its record US$4350 on October 21, 2025. Silver is moving up too, now at US$53/oz but again still lower than its its recent peak of US$54.50 on October 17, 2025American oil prices have recovered +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price now over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,032 and down another -0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, have probably approved the compromise. This has seen Wall Street react with a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to a new record high. But the broader S&P500 is becalmed, and the Nasdaq is lower. The bond market is more risk-averse. The USD is weakening. Just guessing here, but it seems markets think the shutdown pain was a wasted exercise and the result will be negative for the giant US economy. Rebooting their economy won't be easy.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, with the refinance market dipping slightly and the smaller new purchase market rising, actually with a notable increase. This came despite mortgage rates rising in the week.And more Americans than ever are falling behind on their car payments. According to Fitch Ratings, the share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their car loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data tracking that started in 1994. And selling a used car to pay off the debt won't help. Record numbers of people doing that still owe loan balances after these sales.A well-supported US Treasury 10yr bond auction today brought a median yield of 4.02%, down from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, there were more positive economic signals. Building consents rose in September from August more than expected, led by multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec and single-family homes in Ontario. But overall, they were still -8% lower than year-ago levels.In Japan, machine tool orders rose in October by more than +17% from the same month in 2024, driven by a +21% rise in export orders. They would have been happy about the +6% rise in orders from local manufacturers too.In China, residential real estate developers are under pressure to generate cash - again. Meeting year-end sales targets is crucial to hold on to their finance lifelines. So there are not only steep discounts on offer, but other creative incentives, such as "move in, buy later". One Guangzhou developer as a scheme where buyers front with a ¥100,000 deposit (NZ$25,000), move in for one month, and if they are not happy can move out with the only cost being one month's rent.In Malaysia, they have a buoyant retail sector with retail sales rising +7% in September from a year ago, accelerating from the +5% gain in the previous month. It was up +4.3% in volume terms and was their largest increase since January.In India, CPI inflation there has fallen to a record low +0.3% pa, down from +1.4% in September. Driving this is -5% deflation for food. In turn, that was caused by very good food growing conditions and heavy haervests.The RBI has an inflation target range of 2%-6% and this was the third consecutive month it has been below the bottom of that target. They will likely now move to cut their 5.5% policy rate soon, maybe at their next meeting on December 5, 2025.In Australia, the value of new owner-occupier home loan commitments rose +9.8% in September from a year ago. Investment lending for housing soared +18.7% on the same basis to a record high. The housing surge is in full flight of unbridled enthusiasm.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4190/oz, up another +US$77 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have dropped hard by -US$2.50 higher from yesterday to just on US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,589 and down another -1.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news economic optimism seems to be on the rise in many places, but not in the world's largest economy.First in the US, not only is the federal government shut down still, but it is Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, although many firms still operate including the NYSE. But the Wall Street bond market is formally closed.The US Senate passed a short-term compromise to end the shutdown impasse, and the lower House is now getting ready to consider the measure and they are likely to go along with it when they vote.Meanwhile the new weekly ADP Employment report recorded a decrease in private payrolls last week, and unexpected softness. Even though this is very new weekly data, it is a key way the US labour market is being monitored now given the temporarily-closed official data agency (and doubts about its partisan leadership).And prospects for the upcoming holiday hiring season seem to have turned gloomy. And it may not only be hiring that will be restrained; prospects for US Black Friday and Thanksgiving holiday retail sales aren't looking too bright as tariff-taxes weigh on the 'bargains'.The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell marginally in October but to a level that is the lowest in six months. These firms say sales increases are harder to find.But across the Pacific in Japan, the October Economy Watchers Survey delivered an upbeat result that was better than expected, not only about current conditions but also the outlook six months ahead.In China, sales data for October shows their car sales rising yet again, up from the high September level to be +8.8% above year-ago levels at 3.3 mln vehicles. NEV sales were again the strongest sector. October sales start the push to the seasonally peak month in December and that will almost certainly come in at a new record month, likely somewhere near 3.8 mln units. That would mean 2025 sales will exceed 35 mln units, almost double that of the US.In Germany, the latest ZEW survey continues the "cautiously optimistic" tone they have had for six month now.In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence survey was suddenly quite positive, the first positive result since early 2022 and a seven year high. It reported that Christmas spending plans will be less restrained than last year. Consumers think the domestic economy is improving while they think trade risks are subsiding. One group however reported less confidence - those in their 'mortgage belt. They see interest rate risks along with job security risks.Meanwhile, there wasn't the same uplift in business confidence however. The NAB business sentiment survey reported little-change in October, just marginally lower than in September.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time after the ADP payroll news.The price of gold will start today at US$4113/oz, up +US$22 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$61/bbl, with the international Brent price at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.6 USc, and up almost +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also +30 bps firmer at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.1 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,599 and down -1.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is moving to end its government shutdown.First, Wall Street has started its week positively with the S&P 500 rising, the Nasdaq rising even more, and the Dow Jones gaining over 240 points as optimism grew that the US Federal government shutdown could soon end. In a procedural vote yesterday, the Senate advanced the first stage of a deal to reopen the government, securing the minimum 60 votes required. Eight Democratic senators broke with party leadership, dropping their key demand for a guaranteed extension of healthcare subsidies. The proposal must still be debated and passed by the Senate and approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where its passage remains quite uncertain. There was a three year US Treasury bond auction earlier today and that delivered a median yield of 3.54%, essentially unchanged from the 3.53% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, their market participants survey showed that trade tensions with the US are the key issue driving financial market. Despite that, those surveyed reckoned 2025 will deliver a +1% economic expansion this year and more next year.In Indonesia, there was a good bounce back in consumer sentiment in October after five months of angst. The affordability crisis that played out on some streets seems to have faded somewhat.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$4092/oz, up +US$92 from this time yesterday and a +2.3% gain on bets the Fed will cut its rates after weak US data. Silver surged +3% to US$50/oz, its highest level since October 20. Precious metals pricing indicates some market participants aren't impressed by the US shutdown progress.American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price unchanged at US$63.50/bbl. Fundamentally low expected demand is keeping this price low. It is holding at 4 year lows and at levels first seen in 2017.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.3 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps lower at 86.4 AUc and a new 12 year low. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,120 and up +1.4% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Chinese data released over the weekend indicates their domestic economy is holding its own, and their export economy continues to thrive, despite Trump.But first a look ahead. Locally, we will get a fix on retail sales this week on Thursday with the release of the October electronic cards data, and possibly at the end of the week we will get the REINZ sales data.In Australia we will be looking for updates to their consumer sentiment surveys and the labour market data for October (where only modest changes are expected).In the US, the federal government shutdown is unlikely to be resolved, so the ADP Employment Report will take on extra importance and they are releasing this data weekly now. Earnings reports will keep coming. There will be important updates from Japan as well. And this is the week the Chinese release their monthly data dump, and they too are expected to show just modest changes.Over the weekend, China said its consumer prices rose +0.2% in October from a year ago, more than the expected no change and jumping back from the -0.3% decline in September. It was their first increase in consumer inflation since June and the fastest pace since January. Stronger than expected holiday spending probably cause the uptick. Food prices fell -1.6% on this annual basis, dairy products by -1.7%. But both beef and lamb prices rose by +5.6% and +2.4% respectively.Meanwhile, China’s producer prices eased another -2.1% in October on the same basis, marginally less than the -2.3% drop in September and the softest decrease since August 2024. But it does extend their contraction for a 37th consecutive month. The result came in slightly better than market expectations of a -2.2% fall,And China reported that their October foreign exchange reserves swelled more than expected and are back to their highest level in a decade.China also said its exports dipped unexpectedly from October a year ago as shipments fell -18% to the US. Imports from the US fell even more. But other than that, it seems to be business-as-normal. Australia and New Zealand both recorded healthy trade surpluses with China in October. Overall, China's October trade surplus came in at +US$90 bln for the month, and missing many analysts expectations that it might top +US$100 bln as it did in August.In Taiwan, exports from the island nation surged +50% from October a year ago to a record high of US$62 bln, accelerating from a +34% rise in the previous month which itself was very impressive. Taiwanese exports were one fifth those of China, despite only having 1.6% of the population level. For reference, Australia's exports in October are expected to be reported on December 4 at US$30 bln - and Australia has a similar population to Taiwan. The comparison emphases how special the Taiwan export prowess is.In the world's largest economy, the November update of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to near an all-time low in a survey that began almost 80 years ago. Only the June 2022 recording was lower. A small dip was expected but this time a large dip was recorded. Americans are worried about both current personal finances and in year-ahead expected business conditions. It's glum reading and the index is now -30% lower than year-ago levels. American consumer attitudes are in a full bear mode.Meanwhile, the New York Fed's latest update of their Survey of Consumer Expectations reports inflation expectations dipped to 3.2% and some key opinions about their labour market weakened.The US federal government shutdown continues with the White House unable to get its way in the Senate, either with the Democrats changing their healthcare bottom line, or the Republicans adoption the 'nuclear option'. And that means the air traffic restrictions are rolling out and become more pervasive. Thousands of flights have now been cancelled or delayed.In Canada, they delivered something of an unexpected positive surprise from their labour market in October, You may recall the unusually strong +60,000 September jobs gain, driven by very strong full-time employment. Analysts had expected a pause. But in fact, they reported a +67,000 jobs gain in October, although this one was largely driven by a rise in part-time jobs. Rather than the expected rise, their jobless rate fell (but by most standards, it is still pretty high).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time, down -2 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at fractionally under US$4000/oz, down -US$5 from this time Saturday, basically back to week-ago levels.American oil prices are slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 5

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the mess in the US is getting worse as 'retribution' is ramped up. Markets are getting nervous.First, the US government shutdown is masking official data that would show growing troubles in their economy. Today the Challenger job cut report for October revealed that softening consumer demand, the shutdown, AI adoption and higher tariff-taxes are driving hiring freezes and actual labour force reductions. This report said there were 153,000 layoffs in the month, the most since 2003. For all of 2025 so far, there have been more than 1 mln people laid off as counted in this survey. Hiring activity is slowing fast. The last time it was this bad was in the first Trump presidency (in 2020) but there was an excuse then. This time its all on his policies.Meanwhile, the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has eased again as US consumer demand falls away.Financial markets reacted badly to the jobs cut report, going into a more risk-averse mode. That had the effect of punishing commodity currencies as a second-level consequence.And a new shutdown pressure is about to hit the US. The FAA is restricting air traffic control services to many airports because they can't pay the controllers and rostering of the ones they can pay is a "safety issue". In true Trump style, the cutbacks will focus on states with Democrat governors. Large numbers of flights are being cancelled today.The US has added ten minerals to its Critical Minerals List. Being on the list invokes a US Section 232 legal probe for potential tariffs and trade restrictions. It is a stick used to beat its trading partners and gives Trump-supporting investors cover to profit from re-opening unprofitable US capacity.In Canada, they have released the 2025 Budget and it is a bit unusual. Rather than focusing on short-term benefits, even in the face of painful reactions to the US border restrictions, they have chosen a long-term focus to re-orient their economy away from US dependence. That will no doubt bring short-term political stresses, but is an unusual approach by a democracy. More like the Chinese approach. Carney is betting Canadian voters will have the patience for the payoff. His opposition smells an opportunity.Meanwhile across the Pacific, Taiwanese inflation ticked up from its unusually low 1.3% rate in September to 1.5% in October, a level they had been at for the prior four months.There were three central bank rate decisions out overnight and all held unchanged; Malaysia at 2.75%, Norway at 4.0%, and England also at 4.0%.In the EU, they measure their retail sales on a volume (inflation-adjusted) basis and in September it eased lower from August to be +1.0% higher than year-ago levels. The weaker September was less than expected, but the year-on-year gain was as anticipated.In Australia, their merchandise exports are rising fast again. They were up +7.9% in September from August, up +10.3% from the same month a year ago. But the surge is largely due to exports of gold which took an unusual breather in August. Mineral exports were up +9.7%, rural exports were up just +0.7%. Interestingly it was China (and Hong Kong) that drove the demand. But also exports to the US rose by almost a quarter despite the tariffs. Those tariffs have had little impact because the Americans themselves are paying them, taxing themselves.The rise of global container freight rates we noted last week has pushed on into this latest update, up +8% for the week, to take it to -39% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound cargoes from China are driving the resurgence. US importers are resigned to paying the tariff-taxes, the Europeans taking advantage of the Chinese desire to pivot away from dependence on the US. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +3% in the past week to be +41 higher than year-ago levels.Another measure of global shipping's prospects is Danish shipping giant Maersk's share price. It is up +1.3% for the month, up +20% from a year ago. Much of their optimism is centered on China.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.08%, back down -7 bps from yesterday at this time to the prior day's level.The price of gold will start today at US$3979/oz, down -US$3 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower from yesterday at just on US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.3 USc, and down -30 bps from yesterday. That makes it at its lowest level in seven months. Against the Aussie we are holding lower at 87 AUc but that is a 12 year low. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.9 and down -40 bps from yesterday, basically equalizing the April dip and the lowest since July 2009 and a 16 year low.The bitcoin price star

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the good bits of news which seem to dominate today are in fact masking some less-than-good trends nested within them.First up, US ADP employment report on private payrolls for October reported a +42,000 rise in filled jobs, much better than the -29,000 shedding in September and also better than the expected +25,000 gain observers had thought. They also reported that pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year. However the October jobs gains are all concentrated in California and the other two Pacific states. Without their +37,000 gain, things would look rather somber - which is what the rest of the country faces. This survey does not cover public sector employees and of course that is currently very negative given Trump's shutdown.And we should note that this Federal government shutdown is now the longest in US history, and now longer than his first 2018-19 one.And we should also note that oral arguments are being heard in the US Supreme Court's review of the legality of the Trump tariffs. Given the stacked nature of the court, no-one really expects them to rule the Trump actions as 'illegal', but there was a surprising amount of sceptical questioning around the legal basis earlier today.US mortgage applications fell -1.9% last week from the prior week, the fifth decrease in the past six weeks.In a notable contrast to the weak factory sector, the giant American services sector expanded faster in October according to the ISM services PMI. It rose more than expected to its best level since February, putting its September stall behind it. But forward looking sentiment isn't strong, with these firms still contracting workforce levels, and frustration at the level of tariff-taxes they have to bear.Meanwhile, American household debt rose by +US$197 bln in Q3-2025 from the prior quarter to a new record high of almost US$$18.6 tln and up +4.4% from a year earlier. Mortgage balances grew by +US$137 bln and credit card balances rose by US$$24 bln in the quarter. These shifts are being considered 'steady' rather than indicating added riskAcross the Pacific in China, the private S&P Global services PMI has remained modestly expansionary in October, and still better than the official version. The sector continues supported by a faster rise in overall new business, although export sales fell modestly. Meanwhile, 'efficiency' drives led to staffing levels reducing in part due to cost concerns. Despite higher input prices, output charges fell fractionally, while business confidence regarding the year ahead softened.In Europe, Germany reported a rise in factory orders in September from the prior month, however that still leaves than -4.4% lower than year-ago levels. They will be encouraged by the recent uptick, which was better than expected. The new order uptick in the car, electrical and transportation sectors were particularly encouraging.Sweden’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at its October meeting, as widely anticipated. Tonight the Norwegians will review their 4% rate too, and they aren't expected to make any changes either.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up +7 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3982/oz, up +US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc lower from yesterday at just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.3 and only marginally softer from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,811 and recovering +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with of leaking economic signals everywhere we look today. And the NZD is in retreat as the mood sours on commodity currencies, and Wall Street follows.First, the overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar cheese (-6.6%) were the big deliners this time, but the key WMP also fell -2.7%. If it wasn't for China buying, the situation could have been worse as a bearish tone was very evident and markets for milk fats (butter, cheese) are now oversupplied. This was the sixth consecutive drop, taking the fall since early August to more than -10%. So the softness is mounting up now and analysts will be dusting off their new season $10/kgMS forecasts for a serious review.In the US there was a large retreat in optimism as reported by the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey. It fell a sharp -9.1%\in November to it the lowest since June 2024, a shift that was not expected and certainly the size of the shift wasn't anticipated. Confidence among investors slipped -3.1% but for non-investors it plunged -10.4%.The US Logistics Managers Index shows that freight costs are rising and at an increasing rate, but that inventory levels are contracting. This monitoring also reports that warehousing costs and utilisation are now rising at a much softer pace.. This metric seems to suggest more momentum is leaking from the heart of the giant US economy, but it isn't in retreat yet.And staying in the US, the Americans has said China would return as a big buyer of their soybean crop after the Trump/Xi meeting. But as we noted at the time, the Chinese were silent on that commitment. And so far they have not placed any orders in the US (while continuing to buy in Brazil). It makes sense - why would you buy from a supplier who uses trade as a pawn? The uncertainty and unreliability would make anyone shy away from such commitments.All this American negativity is seeing Wall Street in retreat today. At the same time, there are some signature elections being held in parts of the US today and all eyes are on the retribution the US president may apply if results don't go his way. Withholding food aid to the poor is already underway. More will surely follow.In Australia, their central bank held its cash rate target at 3.6% again in yesterday's review but it is admitting to worries about inflation pressures. However, they are hoping those pressure are transitory. Still, remarks yesterday will have financial markets removing any chance of any rate cuts in the foreseeable future.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.08%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3968/oz, down -US$39 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower from yesterday at just over US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.7 USc, and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down than -10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3 and down -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$102,729 and down another -3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.Join us at 1pm this afternoon for the live press conference presenting the latest RBNZ update of their Financial Stability Report.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.