
Economics Explored
319 episodes — Page 3 of 7
Ep 217The Future of Coffee: Climate Change & Rising Prices w/ Raihaan Esat, International Coffee Traders - EP217
Quality coffee will be much more expensive in the future, partly due to climate change, according to International Coffee Traders’ Raihaan Esat. Show host Gene Tunny and co-host Tim Hughes are joined by Raihaan in this episode. They delve into the global coffee market, discussing how Raihaan sources coffee beans from various countries and the factors that affect coffee prices. They also explore the impact of climate change on the coffee market. Take advantage of this deep dive into the fascinating world of coffee.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP217[00:01:51] The impacts of climate change on the coffee market.[00:06:52] Sourcing coffee from farms.[00:07:31] Commercialized coffee farming.[00:12:51] Farming practices and coffee flavor.[00:18:34] Cafe Feminino and empowerment.[00:19:23] Coffee cooperative communities.[00:26:05] Quality differences in coffee sourcing.[00:27:58] Specialty coffee.[00:31:28] Antioxidants and coffee benefits.[00:35:15] Coffee and sustainability.[00:42:03] Coffee production and pricing.[00:42:23] Coffee supply chain logistics and financing.[00:45:21] Shelf life of green coffee.[00:47:13] Coffee demand and market trends worldwide.[00:49:45] Emerging coffee markets.[00:51:33] Climate change and coffee production.[00:56:03] The future of coffee.[01:00:07] Exploring coffee variations.TakeawaysThe biggest problem for coffee roasters is controlling costs and accessing good quality green coffee: the right coffee at the right price. [00:05:57]Supply and demand determine the price of coffee at the end of the day. [00:36:42]High-quality coffee is going to get more expensive as supply is affected by climate change [00:53:26]You should spend some time learning how to craft a nice cup of coffee just like you would learn how to make great pasta or a steak or a dessert. [00:58:59]Links relevant to the conversationCoffee Commune and International Coffee Traders:https://www.coffeecommune.com.au/https://www.coffeecommune.com.au/international-coffee-traders/Tim’s new coffee brand Lumo Coffee, “Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee” (Promo code for 20% off the first purchase is EXPLORED20):https://lumocoffee.com/Cafe Feminino:https://www.cafefemenino.com/Aquiares estate in Costa Rica:https://www.aquiares.com/https://www.instagram.com/aquiarescoffee/?hl=enArturo’s Adept Economics website article on coffee:https://adepteconomics.com.au/coffees-economic-contribution-in-australia/
Ep 216Digital Money Demystified w/ Prof. Tonya Evans - EP216
Professor Tonya Evans is the author of the new book "Digital Money Demystified: Go from Cash to Crypto Safely, Legally, and Confidently." She discusses the topic of cryptocurrency with show host Gene Tunny. Professor Evans argues there are many myths surrounding digital assets, including their association with criminal activity and extreme volatility. She aims to dispel these myths and provide readers with a more accurate understanding of cryptocurrencies. Professor Evans is distinguished professor at Penn State Dickinson Law and a leading expert in intellectual property and new technologies. Please note this episode is for general information only and is not meant to be financial or investment advice. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Professor Tonya M. EvansDr. Tonya M. Evans is a distinguished professor at Penn State Dickinson Law and a leading expert in intellectual property and new technologies. With a prestigious 2023 EDGE in Tech Athena Award, she is highly sought-after as a keynote speaker and consultant. Her expertise spans blockchain, entrepreneurship, entertainment law, and more.As a member of international boards and committees, including the World Economic Forum/Wharton DAO Project Series, Dr. Evans remains at the forefront of cutting-edge research. She recently testified before the House Financial Services Committee and the Copyright Office and USPTO to advise on the intellectual property law issues related to NFTs and blockchain technology.What’s covered in EP216[00:05:31] Prudent crypto investing according to Prof. Evans.[00:09:18] Crypto scams.[00:13:18] Peer-to-peer technology.[00:17:34] Taxing crypto assets.[00:22:45] Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).[00:29:13] Exchanging value without government support.[00:38:17] The currency of outer space.[00:41:10] Self-custody and centralized exchanges.[00:47:48] "Not your keys, not your crypto."[00:49:17] Underrepresentation in the crypto ecosystem.[00:54:07] Learning the language of crypto.[00:59:47] Tracking Bitcoin transactions.[01:01:57] The speed of prosecuting crypto fraud.Links relevant to the conversationAmazon page for Digital Money Demystified:https://www.amazon.com.au/Digital-Money-Demystified-Crypto%C2%AE-Confidently-ebook/dp/B0BVP8GPF8Regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF, Yahoo Finance reported on 28 November 23 that “Crypto investors are awaiting Security & Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for a spot bitcoin ETF, which could unlock a surge of capital investment in the crypto space.”https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bitcoin-may-reach-57k-over-175421720.htmlTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Binance:https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1926
Ep 215Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con w/ Jared Bibler - EP215
Show host Gene Tunny interviews Jared Bibler, author of the book "Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con." Jared discusses his firsthand experience during the brutal 2008 financial crisis in Iceland, where he worked at a collapsed bank and later at the financial markets regulator. He sheds light on the dodgy behaviour of bankers leading up to the crisis and the severe consequences that followed. Stay tuned to the end of the episode for Gene's interpretation of Iceland's secret and its relevance to economies worldwide.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Jared BiblerJared started his career as a consultant for a Wall Street giant in Boston and New York until moving to Iceland to support the Icelandic pension funds’ foreign investments. He resigned from his job at a leading Icelandic bank a weekend before the 2008 Icelandic financial crisis.He was subsequently hired to lead a special investigation team, which referred more than 30 criminal cases to the Special Prosecutor of Iceland, including the largest stock market manipulation cases to be prosecuted globally.Jared’s insider knowledge and unwavering persistence helped Iceland to famously become the only country to jail its bank CEOs. But the real story, deeply complex and sinister, has direct relevance today as banks once again begin to tumble.What’s covered in EP21500:02:56 Iceland's financial crisis was fueled by the growth of banks that became Enron-sized and collapsed, causing significant damage to the economy.00:05:49 Financial industry corruption and collapse.00:11:30 Iceland's banking system collapsed.00:19:33 Icelandic banks manipulated stock prices.00:27:26 The financial system is vulnerable.00:34:58 Banking fraud and economic collapse.00:35:58 Currency crisis in Iceland.00:47:19 Iceland faced an economic crisis and unemployment.00:50:54 Iceland's recovery transformed into something ugly.00:57:38 Lessons from Iceland's banking collapse.01:00:16 Incentives and regulation in finance.Links relevant to the conversationAmazon page for Iceland’s Secret:https://www.amazon.com.au/Icelands-Secret-Untold-Worlds-Biggest/dp/0857198998
Ep 214John Cochrane on Free Markets & Economic Growth and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - EP214
Professor John Cochrane of the Hoover Institution discusses the importance of free markets for economic growth and highlights stagnating growth as the biggest economic issue of our time. John talks about what may be his next book, "Free to Grow," which aims to update Milton and Rose Friedman's "Free to Choose" for today's world. After John speaks, show host Gene Tunny interviews him about his views on growth and his controversial Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. This is a recording of a live event at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney on 26 September 2023. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Professor John CochraneJohn H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).For more on John, check out his bio here:https://www.hoover.org/profiles/john-h-cochraneWhat’s covered in EP21400:03:36 Importance of economic growth.00:16:06 Incentives drive productivity and growth.00:17:12 Regulation hinders economic growth.00:22:59 Fixing problems requires better solutions.00:28:53 Fixing social programs by embracing free markets.00:39:28 Regulatory state causing innovation slowdown.00:46:24 Free market healthcare benefits the poor in John’s view.00:48:47 Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Inflation caused by government debt.00:53:56 Avoid old left-right division.01:05:21 Government debt may lead to a sovereign debt crisis.Links relevant to the conversationVideo of the Free to Grow event on YouTube:https://youtu.be/tmZh43Fc6Zo?si=wwWRfBW3zsbYmCRVCIS web post about the Free to Grow event:https://www.cis.org.au/event/free-to-grow-unlocking-economic-prosperity/
Ep 213Is the American Dream a Broken Promise for Latinos? w/ Dr Paul Rivera - EP213
Dr Paul Rivera provides insights into the $3 trillion Latino economy in the United States and asks whether the American dream is a broken promise for Latinos. Dr. Paul Rivera is co-founder of BeActChange, a former senior economist at USAID, and lecturer at California State University Channel Islands. Dr Rivera and show host Gene Tunny also discuss the challenges of delivering foreign aid and the importance of understanding local communities. Rivera shares a compelling example to illustrate this point.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP213The American Dream and Latino economy with Paul Rivera. (0:03)International development, strategic planning, and community engagement. (4:41)Inadequate consultation in international development projects. (10:23)Latino population's role in US economy and American dream. (14:07)Latino mental health and the American Dream. (20:13)The economic power of the Latino community in the US. (25:45)Latino homeownership, education, and mental health. (29:12)The American Dream and its accessibility. (34:46)Immigrant experiences and the American dream. (40:06)Latino population growth in the US and its impact. (43:48)Marketing to the Latino community in the US. (47:26)Links relevant to the conversationAbout Dr Paul Rivera on his BeActChange website:https://beactchange.com/about-paul/Paul’s LinkedIn page:https://www.linkedin.com/in/drpaulrivera/Paul’s book Creating Your Limitless Life co-authored with Dr. Esther Zeledón:https://www.amazon.com.au/CREATING-YOUR-LIMITLESS-LIFE-Terms-ebook/dp/B0CFZN3FCSLatino GDP report 2023:https://lattitude.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LDC%20GDP%20REPORT%202023.pdf
Ep 212Carbon as an emerging, liquid asset class w/ Michael Azlen, Carbon Cap Management - EP212
With carbon prices becoming more common globally, carbon is an emerging, liquid asset class, according to Michael Azlen, CEO and co-portfolio manager of Carbon Cap Management. Michael shares his insights into investing in carbon markets with show host Gene Tunny. Michael, an experienced investment professional and regular speaker at investment conferences, shares his research on the benefits of diversifying investments across multiple carbon markets. Tune in to learn more about the potential of carbon markets as an investment opportunity. Disclaimer: This is for general information only, and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP212Carbon markets and investing in an emerging asset class. (0:03)Carbon markets and their correlation with other asset classes. (2:57)Carbon markets and impact investing. (9:20)Carbon markets and emissions trading schemes. (13:42)Carbon market mechanisms and their effectiveness. (20:52)Carbon markets and their potential for investment. (28:19)Climate change impact on asset management industry. (33:35)Final thoughts on carbon markets and investing with Michael Azlen. (38:25)Links relevant to the conversationAbout Michael Azlen and Carbon Cap:https://www.carbon-cap.com/about-usMichael’s article on “The Carbon Risk Premium”:https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijaltinv/25/1/33
Ep 211Uncovering the Secrets of Valuing and Selling Businesses w/ Arthur Petropoulos, Hill View Partners - EP211
Show host Gene Tunny is joined by Arthur Petropoulos, founder and managing partner of Hill View Partners, a company specializing in mergers and acquisitions, business sales, and capital advisory services for middle market companies. They discuss how Arthur finds, values, and sells businesses, as well as the wider economic impacts of his work and the role of private equity. They also explore whether we should be concerned about modern-day Gordon Gekkos and how the business landscape has changed since the 1980s. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP211Business sales and capital raising with Hillview Partners. (1:22)Business brokering process and outreach strategies. (5:18)Business valuation and acquisition strategies. (8:10)Buyers and sellers in mergers and acquisitions. (14:47)Business sale process and foreign investment constraints. (17:34)Selling a business, focusing on narrative and information sharing. (24:18)Private company sales and legal risks. (28:00)The role of capital markets in the economy. (38:05)Private equity's role in the economy, including pros and cons. (44:10)Links relevant to the conversationAbout this episode’s guest Arthur Petropoulos:https://hillviewps.com/leadership/Arthur’s YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZu4Nl6i5IseEJBqp1IPd3gHill View Partners social media:https://www.linkedin.com/company/hillviewpartners/
Ep 210From Adelaide to Global Power: Young Rupert Murdoch w/ Walter Marsh
Journalist Walter Marsh talks about his new book "Young Rupert: The Making of the Murdoch Empire." Walter and show host Gene Tunny discuss Rupert Murdoch's early years in Adelaide, South Australia and how they shaped his later career. From challenging established systems to becoming a globally influential media mogul, Murdoch's career has been highly controversial. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Walter MarshWalter Marsh is a journalist based in Tarntanya/Adelaide with a background in history and culture. A former editor and staff writer at The Adelaide Review and Rip It Up, his writing has appeared in The Guardian, The Monthly, The Saturday Paper, and InDaily.What’s covered in EP210Rupert Murdoch's career and the making of the Murdoch empire. (0:00)Rupert Murdoch's life and career. (3:09)The origins of Rupert Murdoch's media empire in Adelaide. (8:16)Newspaper circulation wars in Adelaide. (14:01)The business strategies of a successful entrepreneur. (20:28)A controversial murder case and its aftermath in Australia. (23:35)A historical libel trial involving Rupert Murdoch and his newspaper. (28:09)Media, power, and ethics in the Rupert Murdoch era. (33:20)Rupert Murdoch's legacy. (38:15)Links relevant to the conversationYou can purchase Young Rupert via Amazon:https://www.amazon.com.au/Young-Rupert-making-Murdoch-empire/dp/1761380044Author’s website:https://waltermarsh.com.au/
Ep 209Private vs public sector jobs, consulting scandals & economics as an ‘imperialist discipline’ w/ UQPPES - EP209
Show host Gene Tunny speaks with students from the University of Queensland Politics, Philosophy and Economics Society. They discuss topics such as private versus public sector jobs, the future of consulting, and the risks of outsourcing for government officials. Gene takes an historical perspective and goes back to the time of convict transportation to Australia. He also talks about, among other things, his time working in Treasury during the Rudd Government, and how psychology is relevant to economics. The students express concerns about the consulting sector in light of a recent scandal involving PwC partners misusing confidential government information.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP209Economics career paths and differences between public service and consulting. (3:04)Consulting industry challenges and scandals. (15:39)Outsourcing in government and potential mitigation of risks. (17:50)Greedflation. (28:30)Limits of economics as a discipline. (33:59)Public vs private sector work experiences. (38:22)Government consulting and ethics. (43:48)Links relevant to the conversationAbout UQPPES:https://uqppes.com.au/about-us/On how badly designed outsourcing of convict transportation created the ‘death fleet’, see:https://www.themandarin.com.au/73989-contracts-and-convicts-how-perverse-incentives-created-the-death-fleet/
Ep 208Growth or Degrowth? w/ Oliver Hartwich, NZ Initiative - EP208
Show host Gene Tunny delves into the concept of Degrowth: the idea of deliberately shrinking economies to avoid the runaway climate change, ecological collapse, and societal breakdown that degrowth proponents are worried about. Gene first discusses degrowth with Oliver Hartwich from the New Zealand Initiative, and then responds to questions about degrowth at a recent University of Queensland Politics, Philosophy, and Economics student event. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Dr Oliver Hartwich, NZ InitiativeDr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative. Before joining the Initiative, he was a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, the Chief Economist at Policy Exchange in London, and an advisor in the UK House of Lords. Oliver holds a Master’s degree in Economics and Business administration and a PhD in Law from Bochum University in Germany.What’s covered in EP208[00:04:39] Degrowth to stop climate change? [00:08:00] Economic growth and adaptation to climate change? [00:11:53] How a threatened lungfish colony stopped a new dam in South East Queensland. [00:15:47] Are we rich enough already? [00:20:20] Democratization of wealth and prosperity. [00:24:05] Economic growth as a positive. [00:30:39] Carbon pricing. [00:34:10] Decreasing Antarctic sea ice extent.Links relevant to the conversationGene’s September 2023 Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) paper on Degrowth:https://www.cis.org.au/publication/debunking-degrowth/NZ Initiative podcast from which part 1 of this episode was borrowed:https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/podcasts/podcast-debunking-degrowth/Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 207How Ben Bernanke can bring Superforecasting to the Bank of England w/ Nicholas Gruen - EP207
Host Gene Tunny chats with Dr. Nicholas Gruen about economic forecasting and what recommendations former US Fed Chair Ben Bernanke could make in his current review of forecasting at the Bank of England. Nicholas, the CEO of Lateral Economics, discusses the shortcomings of economic forecasting and shares his insights into how it can be improved. The conversation was inspired by Nicholas's article in the Financial Times titled "How to Improve Economic Forecasting." The episode is split into two parts, with the second part focusing on the feedback Nicholas received on his article. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Nicholas GruenDescribed by the Financial Times’ Chief Economic Writer Martin Wolf as “a brilliant man who deserves to be better known”, and by former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner as “Australia’s foremost public intellectual”, Dr Nicholas Gruen is a policy economist, entrepreneur and commentator on our economy, society and innovation.What’s covered in EP207[00:02:13] Ben Bernanke’s review of economic forecasting at the Bank of England. [00:05:23] Hedgehogs and foxes. [00:09:36] Long-term issues with economic forecasting. [00:13:18] Improving economic forecasting techniques. [00:19:29] Forecasting accuracy. [00:24:30] Open sourcing economic forecasting. [00:26:29] Developing a forecasting market. [00:34:21] Tetlockian forecasting tournaments. [00:48:37] Wind in the Willows author Kenneth Grahame at the Bank of England.Links relevant to the conversationVideo versions of the conversations featured in this episode on Nicholas’s YouTube channel:https://youtu.be/uJNU8z9148w?si=lk4jfQMWkVx1__Lehttps://youtu.be/KflFvpeC3iI?si=sFOaNruFTMet802jInformation on the Bank of England’s Citizens’ Panels/Forums:https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/get-involved/citizens-panelshttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/get-involved/citizens-panels/the-uk-economy-insights-from-the-bank-of-englands-citizens-panelsMandarin column in which Nicholas declares former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane was “my favourite public servant in all the world”:https://www.themandarin.com.au/87423-now-time-complacency-rba-vs-bank-england-edition/Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 206Exploring the Energy Transformation: A Conversation with Tucker Perkins, Propane Education & Research Council - EP206
Tucker Perkins, head of the Propane Education and Research Council (PERC), talks about the energy transformation we are currently experiencing with Economics Explored host Gene Tunny. Tucker advocates for renewable propane and for other sustainable liquid fuels in the future energy mix. The conversation also touches on the potential role of nuclear energy in achieving net zero emissions. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Tucker PerkinsTucker is the president and chief executive officer of the Propane Education & Research Council (PERC), and his vision for the future is best explained by his own podcast’s title: “Path to Zero.” A firm believer that climate change is real and man-made,Tucker advocates for all energy solutions that will create a cleaner and healthier environment today and into the future. Zero emissions is a goal we can all get behind,but how do we meet the world’s growing energy demands AND reduce carbon in the atmosphere? Tucker believes the best and most realistic wayforward is a wide path that incorporates renewables and clean liquid fuels, such as propane, to accelerate decarbonization and reach our climate goals as soon as possible.Tucker’s insights and theories are backed by his 30+ years of work in the propane industry. He operated his own propane retail company, Premier Propane, and has held executive positions at Columbia Propane, CleanFuel USA and Inergy Propane. Tucker is active with many industry organizations, including the National Propane Gas Association, World LP Gas Association, Industrial TruckAssociation and Outdoor Power Equipment Institute.What’s covered in EP206[00:05:43] Energy transformation and low carbon fuels. [00:09:24] Propane-powered trucks and environmental impact. [00:13:30] Cruise ships moving to LNG. [00:18:21] The role of gas in the energy transformation. [00:21:13] Choosing cleaner energy options. [00:33:16] Nuclear power and the grid. [00:38:40] Energy transformation and renewable fuels.Links relevant to the conversationTucker’s Path to Zero podcastFull transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 205Gigi Foster estimates COVID lockdowns cost young people 116x any benefits - EP205
Professor Gigi Foster talks about her paper "COVID's Cohort of Losers" which argues that COVID lockdowns and other restrictions disproportionately imposed costs on young people with few offsetting benefits. Gigi is a Professor of Economics at the University of New South Wales, Sydney and was named the 2019 Young Economist of the Year by the Economic Society of Australia.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Gigi FosterGigi Foster is a Professor with the School of Economics at the University of New South Wales, having joined UNSW in 2009 after six years at the University of South Australia. Formally educated at Yale University (BA in Ethics, Politics, and Economics) and the University of Maryland (PhD in Economics), she works in diverse fields including education, social influence, corruption, lab experiments, time use, behavioural economics, and Australian policy. Gigi’s research contributions regularly inform public debates and appear in both specialised and cross-disciplinary outlets (e.g., Quantitative Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Population Economics, Journal of Economic Psychology, Human Relations). Her teaching, featuring strategic innovation and integration with research, was awarded a 2017 Australian Awards for University Teaching (AAUT) Citation for Outstanding Contributions to Student Learning. Named 2019 Young Economist of the Year by the Economic Society of Australia, Gigi has filled numerous roles of service to the profession and engages heavily on economic matters with the Australian community. As one of Australia’s leading economics communicators, her regular media appearances include co-hosting The Economists, a national economics talk-radio program and podcast series premiered in 2018, with Peter Martin AM on ABC Radio National.What’s covered in EP205Intro to the cost and benefits of lockdowns. (3:22)Quality adjusted life year (QALY) and WELLBY. (8:07)Fear and the crowd. (13:47)The history of the cordon sanitaire. (16:58)How many lives were saved? (22:14)The cost and benefits of lock-downs. (27:25)The economics of the lockdown. (34:24)How do we determine the severity of pandemics? (36:25)The difference between the 1918 flu and COVID-19. (41:18)Citizen juries. (46:35)New laws about misinformation and disinformation. (49:45)Health and good nutrition. (56:01)Links relevant to the conversationGigi’s paper for CIS:https://www.cis.org.au/publication/covids-cohort-of-losers-the-intergenerational-burden-of-the-governments-coronavirus-response/Information on WELLBYs:HM Treasury’s Wellbeing Guidance for Appraisal: Supplementary Green Book GuidanceFull transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 204Business as Unusual: No such thing as Business as Usual anymore? w/ Rick Yvanovich - EP204
Serial entrepreneur and executive coach Rick Yvanovich talks about his new book "Business as Unusual: How to Thrive in the New Renaissance." Rick argues that the world is continuing to undergo a massive shift and that there is no going back to normal. He shares his insights on the mindsets, habits, and skills necessary to succeed in this new era. The conversation also touches on Rick's journey to Vietnam, where he currently resides, and what it was like living in Saigon during the pandemic. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Rick YvanovichEntrepreneur, Techie, Brit, baby boomer, bean counter in: supermarkets, accounting profession, breweries, newsagents, defence manufacturing, IT, Talent, F&B, property development and BP, in the UK, China, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam. Posted to BP China as Finance Manager, then to BP Vietnam in 1990 making him likely the longest Brit and one of the most seasoned expats in Vietnam.Fellow Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA), Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA), Fellow CPA Australia, MSc Strategic Business Management (Manchester Metropolitan University, UK), Certified Coaching and Mentoring Professional (CCMP), Certified Master Coach (CMC).Treasurer & Board Member BritCham Vietnam, Vice-Chair AMCHAM HCMC DEC (Digital Economy) Group, Chairman Industry Advisory Committee RMIT Vietnam, founder/co-founder/investor/advisor of multiple start-ups.Regular speaker for Talent, Coaching, Accounting, Digital Transformation, Project Management, Doing Business in Vietnam.For further info about Rick, check out:https://www.rickyvanovich.com/about/What’s covered in EP204[00:01:45] Rick’s career and journey to Vietnam[00:08:00] Business as Unusual. [00:13:27] The great reshuffle. [00:16:29] The impact of lockdowns in Saigon. [00:25:01] Technological advancement. [00:29:19] Climate change and AI. [00:33:24] How to Thrive in the New Renaissance. [00:36:11] How AI helps you overcome the tyranny of the blank page. [00:41:06] Reflecting on life during COVID. [00:46:19] Zoom calls as a lifeline during COVID. Links relevant to the conversationRick’s book Business as Unusual:https://www.rickyvanovich.com/books/bauu-book-series/Article on “How AI is helping airlines mitigate the climate impact of contrails”:https://blog.google/technology/ai/ai-airlines-contrails-climate-change/ Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 203How to improve housing affordability and why the Greedflation thesis is wrong w/ Simon Cowan, CIS - EP203
Host Gene Tunny and Simon Cowan from the Centre for Independent Studies discuss housing affordability and greedflation in the CIS’s Sydney HQ. They delve into recent articles written by Simon on these topics and explore the factors contributing to unaffordable housing (e.g. zoning and other supply restrictions) and why the greedflation thesis is wrong. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Simon CowanSimon Cowan is Research Director at the CIS. He is a leading commentator on policy and politics, with a regular column in the Canberra Times newspaper, frequent interviews on Sky and the ABC, and multiple appearances before parliamentary committees discussing the budget, citizenship, taxation and health policy. He has written extensively on government spending and fiscal policy, with a specific focus on welfare and superannuation policy. He earlier work focused on government industry policy, defence and regulation.His latest work includes Attitudes to a post-Covid Australia and Millennials and Super: the case for voluntary superannuation. Some of his other works include a co-authored report on pensions, a deep dive into the Universal Basic Income, and a 2012 piece arguing that Australia should acquire nuclear submarines from the Americans.What’s covered in EP203The problem with housing affordability. (4:56)High property prices and housing affordability. (10:02)Should we cap migration to improve housing affordability? (14:24)The role of public/social housing. (19:12)Shared equity schemes. (24:15)Home ownership as a key milestone on the way to retirement. (29:09)Local government regulations and housing affordability. (35:06)The Greedflation hypothesis and why it’s wrong. (39:04)Links relevant to the conversationSimon’s Canberra Times articles on housing affordability and greedflation:The Coalition can create generational voting change by tackling housing affordability - The Centre for Independent Studies'Greedflation' myth hides real causes of inflation - The Centre for Independent StudiesImages from the Bill Leak room including a poem from Sir Les Patterson (i.e. Barry Humphries):Sir Les with Bill Leak.jpgSir Les's poem about Bill Leak part 1.jpgSir Les's poem about Bill Leak part 2.jpgPast Economics Explored episode discussing wage-price spiral mentioned by Gene:https://economicsexplored.com/2022/06/14/stagflation-be-alert-not-alarmed-ep143-transcript/Transcript of Q&A session following Phil Lowe’s speech in Brisbane in July 2023 during which Gene asked the RBA Governor about Greedflation:https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-07-12-q-and-a-transcript.htmlFull transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 202Australia’s Net Zero transition: successes & challenges w/ Andrew Murdoch, Arche Energy - EP202
A conversation regarding the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, with Andrew Murdoch, the Managing Director of Arche Energy. Andrew shares his positive outlook and realistic insights into the challenges of integrating renewable energy into the electricity grid. He also advocates for being open to a range of options, including nuclear power and carbon capture and storage.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Andrew MurdochAndrew Murdoch is the Founder and Managing Director of Arche Energy. Andrew has been operating in technical-commercial roles in the Queensland National Electricity Market (NEM) Zone since it was first founded over 20 years ago. In 2017, he founded Arche Energy to provide a high-quality clean energy, power and infrastructure consultancy to facilitate investment in the clean energy sector. He is an experienced general manager, project director and engineer operating in renewable power, power generation, energy, ports and heavy infrastructure.His experience spans business development activities, major approvals, project execution, operations and maintenance and decommissioning. Andrew is an innovator and optimiser thriving in changing environments through the adaptation and integration of emerging and innovative technologies into business applications.What’s covered in EP202How is the transition to net zero going? (1:59)The problem with intermittent generation. (7:36)Transitioning from one energy source to another. (13:40)Traditional hydro & pumped hydro. (16:08)Geotechnical risks in construction. (20:11)The infrastructure challenge. (24:00)Zero marginal cost power. (30:23) The role of nuclear energy in the transition to net zero. (45:42)Links relevant to the conversationPrevious Economics Explored episodes relevant to this episode:The Aussie electricity market malfunction of June 2022 – EP156 – Economics ExploredSir David Hendry on economic forecasting & the net zero transition – EP198Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 201Experts and democracy: pandemics, monetary policy & AI w/ Peter Kurti, CIS - EP201
The Centre for Independent Studies’ Peter Kurti asks “ Should those who know best rule the rest of us?” In this episode, host Gene Tunny chats with Peter about his new paper "Authority, Expertise and Democracy," which explores the role of experts in government and how society should best utilize their knowledge in public policy making. They delve into the question of when it makes sense to delegate power to experts and the relevant considerations. The role of experts in decision making around the pandemic, monetary policy, and AI are discussed. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Peter KurtiPeter Kurti is Director of the Culture, Prosperity & Civil Society program at the CIS. He is also Adjunct Associate Professor in the School of Law at the University of Notre Dame Australia, and Adjunct Research Fellow at the Australian Centre for Christianity and Culture at Charles Sturt University. He has written extensively about issues of religion, liberty, and civil society in Australia, and appears frequently as a commentator on television and radio. In addition to having written many newspaper articles, he is also the author of The Tyranny of Tolerance: Threats to Religious Liberty in Australia; Euthanasia: Putting the Culture to Death?; and Sacred & Profane: Faith and Belief in a Secular Society, published by Connor Court. Peter is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and an ordained minister in the Anglican Church of Australia.What’s covered in EP201[00:02:30] Authority and experts in government.[00:04:07] Impact of experts during COVID. [00:09:29] Discrimination and lockdown restrictions. [00:13:29] Delegating power to experts. [00:18:12] Politicians' difficult role in decision-making. [00:21:11] Trade-offs in decision making. [00:27:23] Vaccine mandates. [00:34:27] AI and expert advice. [00:37:35] Expert advice and self-interest. [00:37:59] The importance of delegation of monetary policy decisions. [00:40:19] Expert Failure book by Roger Koppl. [00:43:33] Experts and human failings. [00:50:32] The length of the leash. [00:52:12] The role of experts in policy making.Links relevant to the conversationPeter Kurti’s new paper for the Centre for Independent Studies:Authority, Expertise And Democracy. Should those who know best rule the rest of us?Episode on Public Choice theory mentioned by Gene:EP93 – Public Choice theory with Dr Brendan Markey-Towler – Economics ExploredThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 200Highlights of last 100 incl. Brad DeLong, Sir David Hendry, Leonora Risse, Andrew May - EP200
In this special 200th episode of Economics Explored, host Gene Tunny is joined by Tim Hughes to discuss some of the highlights from the last 100 episodes. The episode features clips of Brad DeLong (UC Berkeley) describing how we’ve been slouching towards utopia since 1870, Sir David Hendry (Oxford) on the merits of small modular nuclear reactors, Leonora Risse (RMIT) on the benefits of diversity, and Super Forecaster Warren Hatch on what makes a good forecaster, among others. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP200[2:24] Brad DeLong on Slouching towards Utopia[10:01] Jon Erickon’s vision of an economy “built on maintenance, resilience and cooperation instead of growth, efficiency and competition” - check out his book The Progress Illusion: Reclaiming Our Future from the Fairytale of Economics[25:29] Wayne Visser shares his optimism regarding how we’re dealing with environmental challenges - check out his book Thriving: The Breakthrough Movement to Regenerate Nature, Society, and the Economy[32:08] Sir David Hendry on the merits of small nuclear reactors[38:05] Warren Hatch on what makes a good forecaster[43:36] Leonora Risse on the benefits of diversity for decision making[52:20] Deb Brown on critical thinking[58:05] Andrew May on how he went from Australian cricket performance coach to executive coach to CEOs of ASX 50 companiesLinks relevant to the conversationEpisodes from which clips were taken from:Slouching Towards Utopia w/ Brad DeLong – EP163 – Economics ExploredThe Progress Illusion w/ Jon Erickson – EP166 – Economics ExploredThriving w/ Wayne Visser, Cambridge & Antwerp sustainable business expert – EP130Sir David Hendry on economic forecasting & the net zero transition – EP198Superforecasting w/ Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment – EP176 – Economics ExploredWomen in Economics with Dr Leonora Risse of RMIT, Melbourne – EP124Truth (or the lack of it) in politics and how to think critically with help from Descartes – EP123 – Economics ExploredThe importance of physical & mental health for top CEO performance w/ Andrew May – EP193Link to info about Windscale fire mentioned in conversation between Gene and Tim:Windscale fire - WikipediaThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 199The ESG puppet show & taking Liberty seriously w/ Nicholas Gruen - EP199
Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics, and host Gene Tunny discuss the topics of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) mandates and Liberty. They explore how ESG mandates can create confusion among executives and investors, and delve into Nicholas' perspective on Liberty, how to take it seriously and the best way to think about it. Nicholas tells a story from the early 1980s about how he tried to change Australia’s laws which allow Parliament to lock people up for contempt of Parliament. The conversation also touches on Nicholas' concept of citizens' juries, which is gaining support internationally, including from Martin Wolf at the Financial Times.Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics, and host Gene Tunny discuss the topics of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) mandates and Liberty. They explore how ESG mandates can create confusion among executives and investors, and delve into Nicholas' perspective on Liberty, how to take it seriously and the best way to think about it. Nicholas tells a story from the early 1980s about how he tried to change Australia’s laws which allow Parliament to lock people up for contempt of Parliament. The conversation also touches on Nicholas' concept of citizens' juries, which is gaining support internationally, including from Martin Wolf at the Financial Times.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP199[00:01:32] Citizens' juries and economic policy. [00:02:41] Does divestment from emissions intensive firms reduce emissions?[00:06:47] Investing in fossil fuel companies to help them transition. [00:11:58] Carbon pricing. [00:17:54] Australian consumers and carbon pricing. [00:23:26] A different mode of governance. [00:26:14] Liberty during the COVID pandemic. [00:30:46] House of Commons Privileges Committee. [00:34:32] Safeguards and legitimacy in governance. [00:40:25] Rushed legislation during a pandemic. [00:43:33] High level political discussion. [00:50:06] Managing a crisis.Links relevant to the conversationNicholas’s YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/@NicholasGruenVideos of conversations featured this episode:Why ESG is a puppet show and what to do about it Liberty: Safety from tyranny or doing what you like?Club Troppo posts:https://clubtroppo.com.au/2023/07/11/why-esg-is-a-puppet-show-and-what-to-do-about-it/https://clubtroppo.com.au/2021/08/22/lockdowns-and-liberty/Regarding the journalists locked up the Australian Parliament in the 1950s:https://clubtroppo.com.au/2021/08/22/lockdowns-and-liberty/Freakonomics episode on ESG that Nicholas mentions:https://freakonomics.com/podcast/are-e-s-g-investors-actually-helping-the-environment/Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 198Sir David Hendry on economic forecasting & the net zero transition - EP198
Sir David Hendry, the renowned British econometrician, talks to hosts Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes about the state of economic forecasting and the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Among other things, Sir David talks about how to avoid major economic forecasting failures (e.g. UK productivity), forecasting global temperatures after volcanic eruptions, and the role of nuclear energy in the net zero transition. Sir David is currently Deputy Director of the Climate Econometrics group at Oxford. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Sir David HendrySir David F. Hendry is Deputy Director, Climate Econometrics (formerly Programme for Economic Modelling), Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and of Climate Econometrics and Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford University. He was previously Professor of Economics at Oxford 1982--2018, Professor of Econometrics at LSE and a Leverhulme Personal Research Professor of Economics, Oxford 1995-2000. He was Knighted in 2009; is an Honorary Vice-President and past President, Royal Economic Society; Fellow, British Academy, Royal Society of Edinburgh, Econometric Society, Academy of Social Sciences, Econometric Reviews and Journal of Econometrics; Foreign Honorary Member, American Economic Association and American Academy of Arts and Sciences; Honorary Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters and Founding Fellow, International Association for Applied Econometrics. He has received eight Honorary Doctorates, a Lifetime Achievement Award from the ESRC, and the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society. The ISI lists him as one of the world’s 200 most cited economists, he is a Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate, and has published more than 200 papers and 25 books on econometric methods, theory, modelling, and history; computing; empirical economics; and forecasting.What’s covered in EP198Conversation with Sir David:[00:02:27] Economic forecasting: are we any better at it? [00:05:56] Forecasting errors and adjustments. [00:08:04] Widespread use of flawed models. [00:12:45] Macroeconomics and the financial crisis. [00:16:30] Indicator saturation in forecasting. [00:21:02] AI's relevance in forecasting. [00:24:23] Theory vs. data driven modeling. [00:28:09] Volcanic eruptions and temperature recovery. [00:32:26] Ice ages and climate modeling. [00:37:09] Carbon taxes. [00:40:10] Methane reduction in animal agriculture. [00:44:43] Small nuclear reactors: should Australia consider them?[00:49:08] Solar energy storage challenge. [00:54:00] Car as a battery. [00:57:01] Simplifying insurance sales process. [01:01:19] Climate econometrics and modeling.Wrap up from Gene and Tim: [01:03:23] Central bank forecasting errors. [01:07:12] Breakthrough in battery technology. [01:11:18] Graphene and clean energy. Links relevant to the conversationClimate Econometrics group at Oxford:https://www.climateeconometrics.org/Conversation with John Atkins on philosophy and truth mentioned by Tim:https://economicsexplored.com/2021/10/16/ep109-philosophy-and-truth/Info on solid state batteries and graphene:https://www.topspeed.com/toyota-745-mile-solid-state-battery/https://theconversation.com/graphene-is-a-proven-supermaterial-but-manufacturing-the-versatile-form-of-carbon-at-usable-scales-remains-a-challenge-194238https://hemanth-99.medium.com/graphene-and-its-applications-in-renewable-energy-sector-333d1cbb89ebThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 197Democratizing VC Investment Opportunities w/ James Kwan, VentureCrowd - EP197
Show host Gene Tunny chats with James Kwan, in-house counsel at VentureCrowd, about venture capital. VentureCrowd describes itself as “Australia's leading equity crowdfunding investment platform, leveraging the power of crowdfunding for investments that back a better future.” Gene and James discuss how VentureCrowd is bringing venture capital investment opportunities to a wider audience through equity crowdfunding. Tune in to learn about the significance of venture capital in financing and supporting innovative ideas and businesses, particularly in the early stages when traditional sources of capital may be less accessible. Of course, listeners are reminded to do their own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP197James’ thoughts on venture capital and what he does at VentureCrowd. (1:31)Initial thoughts on government policy towards VC (6:26)The valley of death for startups (12:05)What’s the range of funding for startups? (13:07)Challenges in accessing the private capital markets. (17:29)Crowdsourcing VC investment - example of success: Be Fit Food (19:50)What is VentureCrowd’s pitch to investors? (21:41)ESG investments and societal values. (24:13)What are the different ways people can invest through VentureCrowd? Is it based on specific startups? (25:54)Tricky legal issues in VC. (27:01)What’s the impact of blockchain on venture capital? (32:04)Government assistance for entrepreneurs e.g. Breakthrough Victoria Fund (37:51)Links relevant to the conversationVenture Crowd website:https://www.venturecrowd.com.au/s/Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 196Do central banks stabilize or destabilize economies? w/ Addison Wiggin, NYT-bestselling-author - EP196
The episode delves into the effectiveness of monetary policy by central banks in managing the economy over the business cycle. Do the actions of central banks stabilize or destabilize economies? Show host Gene Tunny chats with Addison Wiggin, a bestselling author, market economist, and host of the Wiggin Sessions podcast, about monetary policy and financial crises. Addison also shares some reflections on the US debt ceiling drama. This is part 2 of the conversation Gene held with Addison in early June 2023, the first part of which was released as EP192 on the US banking crisis.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Addison WigginThree-time New York Times best-selling author, Addison Wiggin, is a 30-year market economist with a passion for the real-world impact of financial markets on our lives. Addison is the author and host of The Wiggin Sessions, a podcast that connects key thinkers and industry experts for a deep dive into history, politics, and economics. Some of his most accomplished works as a writer, publisher, and filmmaker include the New York Times Best Seller The Demise Of The Dollar and the documentary I.O.U.S.A, an exposé on the national debt crisis in America.What’s covered in EP196How is it that the US dollar can be the reserve currency of the world? (2:37)Why not just accept that the business cycle is a thing and not do anything about it? (7:25)Minsky’s instability thesis. (11:42)The debt ceiling is just political theater. (16:52)Central bankers and economists thought we’d solve the problem of business cycle management. (21:29)How monetary policy was determined during the Gold standard era (25:06)When the Federal Reserve presided over the contraction of the US money supply as multiple banks failed, the money supply fell 30% from 1930 to 1933. (30:17)What does all this mean in the current context? (35:54)Central banks need to choose wisely and they need some methodology to do so. (41:23)Links relevant to the conversationPart 1 of Gene’s conversation with Addison:https://economicsexplored.com/2023/06/18/exploring-the-us-banking-crisis-with-addison-wiggin-ep192/US Federal Reserve on what happened to monetary policy during the Great Depression, “From the fall of 1930 through the winter of 1933, the money supply fell by nearly 30 percent.”:https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depressionEpisode with Stephen Kirchner in April 2022 in which the “lean versus clean” debate was discussed:https://economicsexplored.com/2022/04/20/nominal-gdp-targeting-w-stephen-kirchner-ep135/Till Time's Last Sand: A History of the Bank of England by David Kynaston:https://www.amazon.com.au/Till-Times-Last-Sand-1694-2013/dp/1408868563Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 195The Paradox of Debt w/ Richard Vague, ex-Sec. of Banking & Securities, Pennsylvania - EP195
Economics Explored host Gene Tunny chats with Richard Vague, a prominent American businessman and investor, about his new book, "The Paradox of Debt: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis." Richard, who has previously written about “The Case for a Debt Jubilee”, shares powerful insights into the benefits and drawbacks of debt, discussing how it can help grow household wealth while also promoting economic instability and rising inequality. He also offers thought-provoking ideas for helping households and businesses manage and reduce their debts. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Note: this episode was recorded in mid-June 2023, i.e. before the Supreme Court decision regarding student loan relief, which is why the decision isn’t mentioned in this conversation. About this episode’s guest: Richard VagueRichard Vague served most recently as Secretary of Banking and Securities for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. As the author of The Paradox of Debt (2023), The Case for a Debt Jubilee (2021), A Brief History of Doom (2019), and The Next Economic Disaster (2014), Richard Vague established himself as a clear and independent voice in the ongoing conversation about the role of private sector debt in the global economy.What’s covered in EP195[00:04:39] Debt and the global financial crisis. [00:11:23] Debt always grows faster than the economy, Richard argues. [00:12:53] Increased debt and higher net worth. [00:17:23] Paradox of debt and inequality. [00:23:01] Type one and type two debt. [00:28:50] Regional banking crisis in the US. [00:32:13] The paradox of debt: summary. [00:35:10] Debt forgiveness in the private sector. [00:41:43] Debt restructuring in banking. [00:47:48] A win-win-win solution. [00:49:53] Massive job training as something Richard would like to see.Links relevant to the conversationWhere you can buy Richard’s new book The Debt Paradox: A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis:https://www.amazon.com.au/Paradox-Debt-Prosperity-Without-Crisis/dp/1512825328Richard’s previous book The Case for a Debt Jubilee:https://www.amazon.com.au/Case-Debt-Jubilee-Richard-Vague/dp/1509548734Gene’s conversation with Allen Morrison about the Enterprise China model which he mentions this episode:https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/26/enterprise-china-what-western-businesses-need-to-know-w-prof-allen-morrison-ep171/Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 194Invisible Hand, social media, Goldbacks, crypto & CBDC w/ John August - thoughts on recent episodes - EP194
In this episode of the Economics Explored podcast, host Gene Tunny chats with John August, Treasurer of the Pirate Party of Australia and host of the Roving Spotlight show on Radio Skid Row in Sydney. Together, they discuss previous episodes on topics such as the invisible hand, Goldbacks, and cryptocurrencies. Listeners are encouraged to share their thoughts on these topics.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP194[00:02:44] The invisible hand. [00:04:27] Hidden assumptions in economics. [00:08:15] Problem with gambling addiction. [00:14:39] Soviet Union. [00:26:03] Military expenditure and Soviet collapse. [00:30:16] Social media and liberty. [00:33:37] Censorship in social media. [00:39:01] History of currency. [00:40:47] [00:44:25] Central Bank Digital Currency. [00:50:34] Crypto as a solution. [00:55:46] CBDC concerns and conspiracy theories.Links relevant to the conversationJohn’s website where you can find his writings and a link to his radio show:https://johnaugust.com.au/Gene’s previous conversations with John:https://www.mixcloud.com/Johnorg/roving-spotlight-24-may-22-post-election-all-over-gene-tunny-economics-internet-purchases/https://economicsexplored.com/2022/06/21/advertising-surveillance-capitalism-w-john-august-ep144/https://economicsexplored.com/2022/05/11/the-pirate-partys-economic-policy-platform-w-john-august-ep138-transcript/Recent episodes mentioned in the conversation:https://economicsexplored.com/2023/05/12/govt-wellbeing-budgets-frameworks-useful-or-useless-w-nicholas-gruen-ep187/https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/29/the-invisible-hand-economic-religious-or-mystical-concept-w-dan-sanchez-fee-ep185/https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/12/what-are-goldbacks-and-whos-buying-them-e-g-preppers-libertarians-collectors-w-goldback-founder-jeremy-cordon-ep183/https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/31/odd-way-to-fix-housing-crisis-proposed-by-aus-govt-invest-in-stocks-first-w-dr-cameron-murray-sydney-uni/https://economicsexplored.com/2022/09/18/bitcoin-books-w-author-ex-fighter-pilot-lars-emmerich-ep157/https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/08/crypto-arbitrage-searcher-dave-belvedere-on-crypto-and-dapps-such-as-wizards-dragons-ep178/https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/19/aussie-energy-crisis-net-zero-transition-w-josh-stabler-energy-edge-ep170/Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 193The importance of physical & mental health for top CEO performance w/ Andrew May - EP193
EAndrew May, a leading Australian performance coach and host of the Performance Intelligence podcast, discusses the relationship between physical & mental fitness and CEO & business performance with show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes. Andrew shares insights into the areas he focuses on when coaching top performers, including CEOs and elite athletes. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Andrew MayAndrew May is CEO and founder of StriveStronger, a digital consultancy that partners with organisations to create cultures of wellbeing. He presents inspiring presentations and is recognised as one of the world’s leading performance strategists. Andrew works with a number of elite athletes and is the Mental Skills Coach for the Parramatta Eels National Rugby League Club. Andrew is a former middle-distance runner who was an assistant coach at the Australian Institute of Sport in Tasmania. He has worked with multiple Olympic/international athletes in track and field, tennis, swimming, hockey, netball, basketball and AFL; culminating in working as the Physical Performance Manager for both the NSW and Australian Cricket teams. Andrew has dual degrees in the body and brain – completing a Bachelor of Applied Science in Exercise Physiology (body) and a Masters in Coaching Psychology (brain). For further information about Andrew, check out his full bio:https://www.andrewmay.com/about-andrew/What’s covered in EP193[00:01:10] Physical and mental fitness in performance. [00:04:24] Well-being and Performance. [00:08:21] CEOs and high performance sport. [00:10:57] Male vulnerability and authenticity. [00:13:14] Life's purpose and meaning. [00:16:49] Building sustainable operating rhythms. [00:19:59] Slow brainwave patterns.[00:23:00] More on building sustainable operating rhythms. [00:26:24] Sleep and recovery for CEOs. [00:30:16] Wearable device metrics. [00:32:57] Cycling culture and health. [00:38:29] Longevity through lean muscle. [00:39:40] Biological age and VO2 max. [00:43:24] Performance Intelligence Mastermind. [00:47:26] Work-life balance. [00:49:46] Managing stress for executives. [00:53:12] Wearable tech and data analysis. [00:56:32] ROI. [01:01:00] CEO Health Coaching Benefits. [01:04:02] CEOs and Health Performance.Links relevant to the conversationAndrew’s podcast:https://www.andrewmay.com/performance-intelligence-with-andrew-may/Andrew’s book Match Fit and related online course:https://www.amazon.com.au/MatchFit-Andrew-May-ebook/dp/B07ND3CNB6https://www.andrewmay.com/mf8/Regarding DEXA (dual x-ray absorptiometry) scans:https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/dexa-scan.htmlStudies mentioned by Gene in his debrief with Tim at the end of the episode include the following.Study published in Leadership Quarterly in June 2023 “CEO health”:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2022.101672Here’s the abstract:“Using comprehensive data on 28 cohorts in Sweden, we analyze CEO health and its determinants and outcomes. We find CEOs are in much better health than the population and on par with other high-skill professionals. These results apply in particular to mental health and to CEOs of larger companies. We explore three mechanisms that can account for CEOs’ robust health. First, we find health predicts appointment to a CEO position. Second, the CEO position has no discernible impact on the health of its holder. Third, poor health is associated with greater CEO turnover. Here, both contemporaneous health and health at the time of appointment matter. Poor CEO health also predicts poor firm outcomes. We find a statistically significant association between mental health and corporate performance for smaller-firm CEOs, for whom a one standard deviation deterioration in mental health translates into a performance reduction of 6% relative to the mean.”Leibniz Information Centre for Economics & Centre for Financial Research (CFR), University of Cologne working paper titled “Does CEO fitness matter?”https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/123715/1/841379122.pdfHere’s an excerpt from the abstract:This study provides evidence suggesting that CEOs’ physical fitness has a positive impact on firm value, consistent with the beneficial effects of fitness on, e.g., cognitive functions, stress coping and job performance. For each of the years 2001 to 2011, we define S&P 1500 CEOs as fit if they finish a marathon. CEO fitness is also associated with higher firm profitability and higher M&A announcement returns.Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 192Exploring the US Banking Crisis with Addison Wiggin - EP192
Economics Explored host Gene Tunny interviews Addison Wiggin, a New York Times bestselling author and market economist, about the US banking crisis. Addison shares insights into the origins and impacts of the crisis, and discusses the future of the US economy and financial markets. Listeners can download Addison's recent report "Anatomy of a Bust: Winners and Losers in the Banking Crisis of 2023" for free via a link in the show notes. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Addison WigginThree-time New York Times best-selling author, Addison Wiggin, is a 30-year market economist with a passion for the real-world impact of financial markets on our lives.Addison is the author and host of The Wiggin Sessions, a podcast that connects key thinkers and industry experts for a deep dive into history, politics, and economics. Some of his most accomplished works as a writer, publisher, and filmmaker include the New York Times Best Seller The Demise Of The Dollar and the documentary I.O.U.S.A, an exposé on the national debt crisis in America.What’s covered in EP192Addison’s background and how he came to the conclusion that the US financial system is in danger of collapse. (1:53)Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase rates again? (10:46)The uncertain lender of last resort: The Federal Reserve. (17:11)The Fed’s job is to make sure fewer people have jobs. (21:52)Banking crisis and the failure of regulation. (26:21)FDIC and confidence. (32:00)Why it’s important to understand how booms and busts even take place. (37:07)Cryptocurrency as part of the story. (41:47)What has happened to the dollar since 1913, when the US Federal Reserve was established. (46:41)Links relevant to the conversationSpecial download link to Anatomy of a Bust for Economics Explored listeners:https://jointhesessions.com/ee/Presentation by Addison that Gene mentions early in the episode:Anatomy of A Bust: Banks Go First | Special Presentation by Addison WigginThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 191Immigration & Australia’s housing crisis w/ Alan Kohler - EP191
This episode delves into the pressing issues of housing and immigration in Australia, featuring a conversation with renowned financial journalist, Alan Kohler. The discussion revolves around the impact of high immigration rates on housing demand and affordability, emphasizing the need for coordination between immigration and housing policies. The episode also highlights the supply-side factors contributing to the housing crisis, such as restrictions on housing development and protections for character housing and heritage. The host Gene Tunny suggests the need for a national debate and parliamentary inquiry into Australia's immigration rate and population growth to weigh the benefits of immigration against the challenges of housing and infrastructure. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP191[00:01:58] Australia’s housing crisis. [00:06:47] The need to coordinate immigration and housing. [00:08:00] Short-term vs long-term rental - the impact of AirBnB, etc. [00:13:05] Local governments and the housing shortage. [00:18:30] Drop in average housing size. [00:22:32] Increasing housing supply as a solution. [00:24:17] Immigration and housing affordability. [00:28:07] The pandemic response and the housing crisis.Links relevant to the conversationAlan Kohler’s articles:Labor immigration and housing policies are an explosive mixAlan Kohler: Population growth equals economic growth, but for whom?RBA research on average household size:A New Measure of Average Household Size | Bulletin – March 2023 | RBAPrevious Economics Explored episodes on housing:Odd way to fix housing crisis proposed by Aus. Gov’t: invest in stocks first w/ Dr Cameron Murray, Sydney Uni. – Economics ExploredThe high cost of housing and what to do about it w/ Peter Tulip, CIS – EP134 – Economics ExploredMissing Middle Housing podcast chat with Natalie Rayment of Wolter Consulting | Queensland Economy Watch Australian Financial Review articles on housing:Housing supply crisis: How Auckland took on the NIMBYs and won1.3 million missing homes blamed on councils and NIMBYsThanks to Darren Brady Nelson for connecting Gene with Alan Kohler, to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 190US debt ceiling & Gene’s Aussie debt ceiling experience in the GFC | Emerging economies debt crisis - EP190
Host Gene Tunny discusses the US debt ceiling and the emerging economies debt crisis with his Adept Economics colleague Arturo Espinoza. Gene shares a memory of his own experience with the debt ceiling the Australian Government had at the time of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP190[04:35] US debt ceiling negotiations. [09:18] US hitting its debt ceiling.[14:51] The trillion-dollar coin as a possible workaround. [16:14] Spending and revenue challenges. [26:05] Australian debt ceiling legislation in 2008-09. [29:05] US debt limit and consequences. [33:25] Argentina's economic struggles. [40:02] IMF's Nightmarish Identity Crisis & emerging economies debt crisis. [42:27] China's role in emerging markets debt. [45:13] PNG and China. Links relevant to the conversationNoah Smith’s Subtack post:https://open.substack.com/pub/noahpinion/p/the-debt-ceiling-deal-what-was-the?r=2hwg1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Treasury to take ‘extraordinary measures’ as US hits debt ceiling | Financial TimesMichael Knox’s note on the debt ceiling:AUS_ESQ_230523_US government shutdowns and why US treasuries never default.pdfhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2023/05/03/debt-ceiling-scenarios/Federal Spending | U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataThe future US fiscal crisis and how to avert it w/ Romina Boccia, Cato Institute – EP159 – Economics ExploredThe IMF faces a nightmarish identity crisisHow China changed the game for countries in default | Financial TimesThere Is No Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ - The AtlanticFiscal Monitor April 2023Argentina raises interest rate to 97% as it struggles to tackle inflation | CNN BusinessArgentina inflation smashes past every forecast to hit 109% | ReutersThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 189French Journalist Guillaume Pitron argues the Digital World is Costing the Earth - EP189
French journalist Guillaume Pitron discusses his book "The Dark Cloud: How the Digital World is Costing the Earth" with guest host Tim Hughes. The book explores the environmental impact of the digital world. Pitron delves into concerns about energy usage, e-waste, and the carbon footprint of the internet. The episode concludes with a debrief of Tim by regular host Gene Tunny on the conversation. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guestGuillaume Pitron is a French journalist, author and filmmaker. He has written two books, published in some fifteen countries, about the natural resources needed for new technology. He has been invited to share his ideas in the French and international media (Le Figaro, BBC World Service, Bloomberg TV, El País, La Repubblica) and at international forums and institutions (Davos, IMF, European Commission, Unesco).Link to Guillaume’s website:https://www.en-guillaumepitron.com/What’s covered in EP189Introduction to this episode. (0:06)What is the dark cloud? (1:27)There is no digital life without rare earths. (3:54)What is the real cost of digital technology? (8:06)What’s the cost to the environment? (13:07)What can we do as individuals to make this better? (17:38)Facebook's Lapland data center. (22:22)Facebook uses hydro-electricity to run its servers. (24:25)What happens if there’s no water? (28:05)What is the future of the internet going to look like in 10 years? (33:18)Are there any governments around the world that are taking steps forward to regulate the internet? (41:02)What can be done to address this issue? (43:59)What were the main takeaways from the conversation? (48:11)Links relevant to the conversationThe Dark Cloud book:https://scribepublications.com.au/books-authors/books/the-dark-cloud-9781922585523Digital Cleanup Day:https://www.digitalcleanupday.org/Jevons paradox:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradoxIt appears the Amiga hard drive Gene's neighbour in the late 1980s had was a 20MB hard drive:https://bigbookofamigahardware.com/bboah/product.aspx?id=534Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 188Seaweed: the next big thing in sustainable agriculture? w/ Scott Spillias, University of Queensland - EP188
Seaweed is being advanced as a potentially important future food source, the greater farming and consumption of which could avoid environmental impacts associated with other agricultural production, especially of beef. Scott Spillias has recently submitted a PhD thesis at the University of Queensland on seaweed farming, and he’s been getting a lot of attention regarding his findings on seaweed’s potential. Show host Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes talk with Scott about the potential of using seaweed as an alternative food source. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP188The importance of plant-based foods in our diets. (1:36)The market for plant-based foods is growing. (9:39)Estimating the environmental impact of food production - the Economist’s banana index. (14:03)Scott’ Spillias’s research on seaweed farming. (27:27)How do you farm seaweed? What does it involve? (30:04)Where can we grow seaweed in Australia? (35:14)Seaweed has the potential to remove 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere per year. (40:02)What kind of seaweed is growing in the world? (44:49)How does seaweed farming prevent biodiversity loss and climate change? (49:50)Links relevant to the conversationScott Spillias’s UQ page:https://sees.uq.edu.au/profile/13311/scott-spilliasAustralian ABC News article on Scott’s research “Seaweed researchers find bright future for underwater crop”:https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-01-27/seaweed-research-uq-future-farming/101895072Guardian Australia article on Scott’s research “Food, feed and fuel: global seaweed industry could reduce land needed for farming by 110m hectares, study finds”:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/27/food-feed-and-fuel-global-seaweed-industry-could-reduce-land-needed-for-farming-by-110m-hectares-study-findsEconomist article featuring the banana index:A different way to measure the climate impact of food | The EconomistUN and World Bank reports on food and climate:https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/foodChapter 5 : Food Security — Special Report on Climate Change and LandWhat You Need to Know About Food Security and Climate ChangeReview of scientific evidence on “Risks and benefits of consuming edible seaweeds”:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6551690/Please note the key message of the above review:“If the potential functional food and nutraceutical applications of seaweeds are to be realized, more evidence from human intervention studies is needed to evaluate the nutritional benefits of seaweeds and the efficacy of their purported bioactive components.”Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 187Gov’t wellbeing budgets & frameworks: useful or useless? w/ Nicholas Gruen - EP187
Show host Gene Tunny talks with Dr. Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics, about the increasing focus of governments on wellbeing. For instance, former NZ PM Jacinda Ardern rebranded the national budget as a Wellbeing Budget, Wales has a Futures Generations Commissioner, and Australia is developing a new wellbeing framework, Measuring What Matters. Gene and Nicholas discuss the limitations of the current top-down approaches and platitudes, and consider potential solutions for better integrating wellbeing into policymaking. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP187What is the “well-being agenda”? (2:44)The “Easterlin paradox”. (5:08)How do you make these judgments? How do you measure well-being? (10:50)How is this relevant for policy? Should governments be tracking this broader measure? (28:36)Is complexity a plus or a minus in the Treasury wellbeing framework? (33:39)Why do you need a framework? (40:02)Good examples of programs which could improve wellbeing. (44:29)The importance of being connected to family and friends. (53:42)Links relevant to the conversationNicholas Gruen’s YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/@NicholasGruenVideo version of this episode on Nicholas’s Uncomfortable Collisions with Reality podcast:Wellbeing: can we escape the iron law of business-as-usualMeasuring what matters — second consultation process | Treasury.gov.auFairfax Lateral Economics Index of Australia's Wellbeing Final Report (the HALE index discussed in the conversation)Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 186The Greedflation hypothesis - EP186
Economics Explored host Gene Tunny talks about the “greedflation” (greed + inflation) hypothesis with his colleague Arturo Espinosa from Adept Economics. They discuss whether greedy corporations might be responsible for high inflation rates in advanced economies such as Australia and the United States. Gene talks about how the excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus during the pandemic has been a major contributor to higher inflation. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP186[00:01:28] Australia's high inflation rate.[00:06:57] UK windfall tax on oil and gas companies. [00:10:27] Greed inflation hypothesis. [00:13:29] Markups as a contributor to inflation. [00:16:20] Industry concentration and inflationary pressure. [00:21:11] Inflation outbreak and COVID stimulus relationship. [00:25:45] Problems with Covid stimulus. [00:27:58] Excessive stimulus and inflation. [00:32:35] Corporate power and antitrust.Links relevant to the conversationGreedflation articles:Blaming inflation on greedy business is a populist cop outProfits and Inflation in Mining and Non-Mining Sectors | The Australia Institute's Centre for Future WorkUnderlying Australia's inflation problem is a historic shift of income from workers to corporate profitsCorporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? | Economic Policy Institute'Greedflation' is the European Central Bank's latest headache amid fears it's the key culprit for price hikesHow Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation? - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas CityCost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy - Federal Reserve Bank of BostonInflation is being amplified by firms with market power Chris Murphy’s economic modeling on stimulus and inflation in Australia:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1759-3441.12382UK windfall profits tax:What is the windfall tax on oil and gas companies? - BBC NewsEnergy Profits Levy Factsheet - 26 May 2022 - GOV.UKRBA on sources of inflation in Australia:Box C: Supply and Demand Drivers of Inflation in Australia | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2023 | RBACharts:Australian bank depositsAustralian money supply (M3)Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 185The Invisible Hand: economic, religious, or mystical concept? w/ Dan Sanchez, FEE - EP185
The Foundation for Economic Education’s Dan Sanchez argues that the invisible hand is a legitimate economic concept and not a religious or mystical one, as some critics of economics claim. Dan and show host Gene Tunny discuss the efficient organization of economic activities by the market mechanism in a decentralized way, without the need for a central planner. The conversation turns to TikTok and economic engagement with China. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP185Introduction to this episode [0:06]Dan’s article on the “invisible hand” [2:06]The production of a pencil is like an orchestra without a conductor [5:25]Is the invisible hand the hand of God? [8:34]What is the problem with central planning? [12:27]Central planners don’t like the idea of economic laws because they circumscribe their utopian dreams [15:45]Dan’s views on big tech [19:23]Is there a case for regulation or a ban on TikTok? [23:32]Links relevant to the conversationDan’s bio: https://fee.org/people/dan-sanchez/Dan’s Twitter handle: @DanSanchezVDan’s article on “How Atheist Anti-Capitalists miss the point”:https://fee.org/articles/how-atheist-anti-capitalists-miss-the-point/Von Mises book on the economic calculation problemhttps://mises.org/library/economic-calculation-socialist-commonwealthArticle about problems with Soviet shoe production:https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/09/soviet_shoes.htmlBio of 19th century British free trade advocate Richard Cobden who Dan mentions:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_CobdenThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 184A new Monetary Policy tool to end Inflation and avoid Recession w/ Prof. Larry Marsh, Notre Dame - EP184
In this episode of the Economics Explored podcast, host Gene Tunny interviews Professor Larry Marsh about his proposal for a new monetary policy tool that uses a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to end inflation without causing a recession. They also discuss the disconnect between the financial sector and the real economy. Larry Marsh is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame and author of the book "Optimal Money Flow." Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP184What is optimal money flow according to Prof. Marsh? [1:28]What is the role of government in controlling the economy? [6:24]A helicopter drop of money [13:58]What is the idea of a Federal Reserve/central bank digital currency (CBDC)? [18:56]Fractional Reserve Banking [23:08] Narrow banking as a solution to the banking sector problems [24:55]A good example of an all-employee owned company: Burns & McDonnell, Kansas City, MO [31:31]What Larry describes as a winner-takes-all economy [34:37] The invisible hand of the market [37:43]Gene’s wrap up: How the current monetary policy tightening is causing hardship in many economies, it may well be worth experimenting with a new monetary policy tool [43:47]Links relevant to the conversationLarry Marsh’s Optimal Money Flow website:https://optimal-money-flow.website/Where you can purchase Larry’s Optimal Money Flow book:https://www.avila.edu/optimal-money-flow/AEA conference session in which Larry presented his idea for the new monetary policy tool using a CBDC (presentation available for download):https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2023/program/1335Australian ABC News article referring to Nicholas Gruen’s savings policy proposal mentioned by Gene in the episode:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-12/raising-interest-rates-reserve-and-bank-and-inflation-management/101952926Nicholas’s 1999 paper outlining the policy proposal:https://lateraleconomics.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/AvoidingBoomandBust.pdfLinks to videos on China a listener sent me in response to EP182 with Dr Jonathan D T Ward: Prepare for Armageddon: China's warning to the world | 60 Minutes AustraliaTwo Davids & Goliath | David Matas & David Kilgour | TEDxMünchenAmerica Just KILLED China's Tech Industry
Ep 183What are Goldbacks and who’s buying them - e.g. preppers, libertarians, collectors? w/ Goldback Founder Jeremy Cordon - EP183
The Goldback is a local commodity currency operating in several US states, including Nevada and Utah. The Goldback is described as “the world’s first physical, interchangeable, gold money that is designed to accommodate even small transactions”. Each Goldback is embedded with 1/1,000th of a Troy Oz of 24 karat gold. Show host Gene Tunny is joined in this episode by the Founder and CEO of the Goldback company, Jeremy Cordon. According to Jeremy, “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Among other things, Gene asks Jeremy who’s buying Goldbacks and how widely are they being used? Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP183What is a Goldback? [1:36]The USD value of a Goldback relative to the value of Gold in it [5:20]How can you create your own local currency in the US? Is it legal? [6:44]What are the different types of gold buyers? Why Goldbacks are popular with preppers [11:30]What’s the acceptance of Goldbacks by local businesses? [14:12]Why are Goldbacks better than the old gold standard? [20:56]Links relevant to the conversationGoldbacks website:https://www.goldback.com/Jeremy’s bio:https://www.goldback.com/meet-the-teamRelated previous podcast episode:Why fiat money means higher inflation & why a radical Reserve Bank review is needed w/ Darren Brady Nelson – EP179CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 182Why we’re in the Decisive Decade with China & what the West should do w/ Dr Jonathan D. T. Ward - EP182
Dr Jonathan D. T. Ward discusses his new book “The Decisive Decade: American Grand Strategy for Triumph Over China” with show host Gene Tunny. Dr Ward argues the US should adopt “a two-pronged strategy of economic containment toward China alongside the revitalization and evolution of American industrial and technological power.” Dr. Ward is an internationally recognized expert on Chinese global strategy and U.S.-China competition. He earned his PhD in China-India relations at Oxford and his undergraduate degree at Columbia, where he studied the Russian and Chinese languages. Dr Ward is the founder of the Washington DC-based Atlas Organization, which provides strategic advice on US-China competition to businesses and government agencies. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP182How Dr Ward’s new book The Decisive Decade picks up where his previous book China’s Vision of Victory left off [2:02]What’s the actual concern with China at the moment? [5:20]What does economic containment mean? [9:40]Dr Ward proposes to restructure the world economy in favour of the democracies and against China [14:18]Is China such a threat that we should sacrifice our economic gains from trading with China? [19:25]China’s economic development has allowed it invest large amounts in its military [23:18]Western companies and forced labour supply chains in China [26:51]Dr. Ward’s final observations on China [33:24]Links relevant to the conversationDr Jonathan D T Ward’s bio is available from the Atlas Organization’s website:https://atlasorganization.com/Jonathan’s book The Decisive Decade: America's Grand Strategy for Triumph Over China: https://amzn.to/3TQyGoiThis may be the Ben Franklin quote Dr Ward had in mind: “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety”:https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-centuryRelated previous podcast episodes:China, Taiwan & the Indo-Pacific w/ Dr Greta Nabbs-Keller – EP146 – Economics ExploredHow to Defeat the Dictators w/ Charles Dunst, Asia Group – EP180 – Economics ExploredCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 181Using Coase’s 1937 theory to explain Hutchies doing its own concrete formwork - EP181
Why do firms do some activities “in house” and contract out others? British-American economist Ronald Coase gave a cogent explanation in a classic 1937 paper on the nature of the firm. Show host Gene Tunny explains to his colleague Tim Hughes how Coase’s insights (e.g. the concept of transaction costs) can be applied to understand the actions of an Australian construction firm Hutchinson’s deciding to employ people to do concrete formwork rather than relying on subcontractors. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP181Episode topic: What determines what activities a business does in house? [0:06]What is formwork and why does it matter? [3:29]Hutchinson’s moves to bring formwork in house [8:54]When is it important to have an in-house workforce in your firm [14:42]Why you don’t always contract out [20:00]What’s done in house and what’s outsourced? [25:03]Gig economy platforms (e.g. UpWork) [33:02]A closer look at The nature of the firm by Ronald Coase [40:56]Links relevant to the conversationCourier-Mail article on Hutchinson’s decision to do its own formwork:https://www.couriermail.com.au/business/citybeat/hard-labour-hutchies-plan-to-survive-building-crisis/news-story/e3b8acc34728e49cc04d0c4b88bafc8dRonald Coase’s classic article on the nature of the firm:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.xAmerican Express article on pros and cons of hiring versus outsourcing:https://www.americanexpress.com/en-us/business/trends-and-insights/articles/pros-cons-hiring-house-vs-outsourcing/CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Odd way to fix housing crisis proposed by Aus. Gov’t: invest in stocks first w/ Dr Cameron Murray, Sydney Uni.
bonusThe Australian Government has been having trouble getting its proposed Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) passed by the Senate. The policy looks odd. With some justification, the Australian Greens have commented: “In its current form the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) legislation will see the housing crisis get worse. We can't fix the housing crisis by gambling money on the stock market and not guaranteeing a single cent will be spent on housing.” In their dissenting report on the bill, the Greens’ cited the views of this episode’s guest, Dr Cameron Murray. Cameron is a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Dr Cameron MurrayDr Cameron Murray is Post-Doctoral Researcher at Henry Halloran Trust, The University of Sydney. He is an economist specialising in property and urban development, environmental economics, rent-seeking and corruption.Book: Rigged: How networks of powerful mates rip off everyday AustraliansWebsite: https://fresheconomicthinking.substack.com/ Twitter: @drcameronmurray What’s covered in this bonus episodeCameron’s submission to the Senate Inquiry into the Housing Australia Future Fund Bill [2:39]What’s going on with the Housing Australia Future Fund [5:02]The only reason you can make a premium is if you take risk [8:57]Why you need to separate the funding and the spending [10:36]Why doesn’t the Future Fund just directly invest in new houses? [14:21]How governments are increasingly doing financially tricky things that don’t make sense [19:23]Cameron’s thoughts on the impact of the bill on the level of investment in housing [23:14]What’s going on behind the scenes at Parliament House [26:18]Links relevant to the conversationCameron’s submission to the inquiry into the Housing Australia Future Fund:https://fresheconomicthinking.substack.com/p/australias-housing-future-fund-myDirect link to Senate Committee inquiry report:https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/HousingPackageofBills/ReportHAFF inquiry home page:https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/HousingPackageofBillsCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 180How to Defeat the Dictators w/ Charles Dunst, Asia Group - EP180
How can democracies reinvigorate themselves to triumph over authoritarianism? Does the West need to decouple from China? These and other questions are considered in Economics Explored episode 180. Foreign affairs expert Charles Dunst talks about his new book Defeating the Dictators with show host Gene Tunny. Among other things, Charles and Gene talk about the potential benefits of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), such as Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s COVID-19 vaccine plan. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Charles DunstCharles Dunst is deputy director of research & analytics at The Asia Group, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a contributing editor of American Purpose. He is the author of Defeating the Dictators: How Democracy Can Prevail in the Age of the Strongman (Hodder & Stoughton, February 2023). For further information about Charles, check out https://www.charlesdunst.com/. What’s covered in EP180What is the Asia Group and what does it do? [1:35]Is democracy no longer seen as the path to prosperity in developing economies? [5:28]What are the most important organizing principles for a democratic system? [11:38]Accountability and the lack of trust in government [16:34]Best practices for running a democratic country in the 21st century [21:36]Too much money in politics in the US [25:41]Does the West need to decouple from China? [27:37]The role of public private partnerships (PPPs) such as Operation Warp Speed [32:27]How will dictators be defeated if we govern ourselves better? [34:59]The importance of engaging in the conversation through social media and local governance [38:32]Inequality and the Dream Hoarders [39:00]Links relevant to the conversationDefeating the Dictators (Please buy the book via this link to support the show):https://amzn.to/3liQrjxMatthew Engel’s FT article “The foreign states that own Britain’s railways”:https://www.ft.com/content/e57c5fd0-bf54-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About Ithttps://amzn.to/3LvCOrLTrack Nancy Pelosi’s stock portfolio:https://www.capitoltrades.com/politicians/P000197https://twitter.com/PelosiTracker_
SVB & Credit Suisse | Bank runs & Moral hazard - Bonus episode
bonusSilicon Valley Bank (SVB) has collapsed and now Credit Suisse is in trouble. Should we be worried about Global Financial Crisis 2.0? Have the policy responses been sensible? Economics Explored host Gene Tunny provides his initial thoughts.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Links relevant to the episode:Chris Joye's article on SVB:https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-silicon-valley-bank-died-updated-2NPR Indicator episode:https://www.npr.org/2023/03/13/1163157993/silicon-valley-banks-three-fatal-flaws Sebastian Merkel's paper on narrow banking:https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/merkel/files/narrow_banking.pdfWorld Bank paper on Bank Runs and Moral Hazard:https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/548031537377082747/pdf/WPS8589.pdf Bloomberg article on policy response:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/us-moves-to-help-depositors-offer-bank-backstop-in-wake-of-svb?leadSource=uverify%20wall Breaking Points video SECRET Fed BAILOUT Pumps BILLIONS Into Bankshttps://youtu.be/Lj5BE951aP8
Ep 179Why fiat money means higher inflation & why a radical Reserve Bank review is needed w/ Darren Brady Nelson - EP179
In his recent Spectator Australia article, Darren Brady Nelson argues for a radical, not a reserved review of Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which he describes as reckless. In Economics Explored episode 179, Darren provides an Austrian economics perspective on central banks, fiat money, and inflation. Show host Gene Tunny wraps up the episode with a discussion of the historical evidence on different monetary systems and inflation, evidence which confirms economies with fiat money are much more inflation prone. Gene then discusses whether a return to the gold standard would be desirable.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP179Darren’s thoughts on the current review of the Reserve Bank of Australia [1:46]How the RBA interprets the stability of the currency objective [6:54]What is the Austrian School? [10:19]Would the Austrians recommend abolishing the central bank? [21:08]The Bank of England’s report on modern banking [25:54]The need for a broader review of the Reserve Bank of Australia [30:35]Fiat money systems are much more prone to inflation than commodity money systems [34:20]Links relevant to the conversationDarren’s bio on the Economics Explored website:https://economicsexplored.com/regular-guests/Darren’s opinion piece on the Spectator Australia website:The RBA (reckless bank of Australia) needs a radical, not reserved, reviewBank of England paper on money creation:Money creation in the modern economy | Bank of England Minneapolis Fed paper on fiat money, commodity money, and inflation:Money, Inflation, and Output Under Fiat and Commodity Standards | Federal Reserve Bank of MinneapolisUS Gold Commission ReportMinority report of the Gold Commission, co-authored by Ron Paul:The Case for Gold: Minority Report of the US Gold Commission 1982 Alan Greenspan’s autobiography discusses his advice to President Reagan regarding gold:The Age of Turbulence* Another great book on Greenspan which discusses Friedman’s views too:The Man who Knew: The LIfe & Times of Alan Greenspan* *You can help support the show by buying a copy of either book via the links above. CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 178Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons - EP178
Dave Belvedere is a software engineer who searches for opportunities to make the crypto market more efficient and to make money at the same time - e.g. by exploiting arbitrage opportunities. Dave gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes an overview of cryptocurrency and also talks about NFTs and decentralized applications (dApps), such as Wizards & Dragons.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP178What is Dave’s role in the crypto market? [1:10]What is a chain and how does it work? [3:39]How long does it take to make a transaction? [9:26]What does a crypto exchange (e.g. FTX) do? [15:30]What do we know about miners? [20:20]What’s the future of crypto currencies? [25:44]What is Ethereum and how does it work? [45:57]What are the pros and cons of crypto? [52:07]What are dApps? [57:01]What are the use cases? What would motivate you to have crypto? [1:06:33]Links relevant to the conversationBitcoin creator:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_NakamotoWizards & Dragons game:https://dappradar.com/ethereum/games/wizards-dragons-gameCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 177How performance-based pay can motivate employees, but there are risks - EP177
Can we get people to work harder and perform better if we make their pay performance-related - e.g. with performance bonuses or commissions? Does this work? Are individual or group incentives better? What does the evidence say? We know that people respond to incentives, but, as Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes discuss this episode, getting those incentives right can be tricky. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP177What is performance-related pay? [0:41]The types of jobs in which performance-based pay works and doesn’t - e.g. fast food vs real estate [8:09]The importance of getting incentives right and having transparency [23:16]Performance-related pay is a difficult thing to put into practice [28:24]Group-based incentive schemes - evidence from a recent European study of the Hydrema manufacturing business [52:54]Links relevant to the conversationIZA World of Labor - Performance-related pay and productivityHow group-based incentives increase worker performance | CEPRDoes Group-Based Incentive Pay Lead To Higher Productivity? Evidence from a Complex and Interdependent Industrial Production ProcessThe Use of Reward and Incentive Systems: A Case Study of McDonald's - ToughNickelMcDonald's Restaurants puts motivation and reward at heart of business strategy - Employee BenefitsGive and Take – Adam GrantPerformance-related pay | The Economist Real Estate Agent Commissions: How Does it Work and How Much Should You Be PayingLearn the Truth About Real Estate Commissions | PropertyNowCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 176How to be a Superforecaster w/ Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment - EP176
What are the characteristics of superforecasters? How can a superforecasting team be developed? Hear from Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, a leading global forecasting business based in NYC. Accurate forecasts from Good Judgment superforecasters have included the scale of the pandemic. In early 2020, Good Judgment superforecasters estimated the United States would have over 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 with 99 percent certainty, an estimate that was considered by many as excessive at the time. Warren gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes some valuable tips on how to become a superforecaster. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP176The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven’s matrices [9:24]Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you’ve gone [27:56]Bayes’ Theorem [31:41]The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]About this episode’s guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good JudgmentWarren Hatch is Good Judgment’s second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray. Before joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investor clients. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.Hatch holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford, a masters in Russian and international policy studies from Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a bachelors in history from the University of Utah. He is also a CFA® charterholder.Links relevant to the conversationGood Judgment’s website and Twitter:https://goodjudgment.com/ and https://twitter.com/superforecaster?lang=enBBC Reel featuring Warren Hatch:https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0dwntct/can-you-learn-to-predict-the-future-Warren’s talk on YouTube which Gene quotes from in the episode:What is Superforecasting? - Warren Hatch, Good JudgementArticle by Nicholas Gruen:Making better economic forecastsLinks regarding foxes versus hedgehogs:https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/https://goodjudgment.com/the-cost-of-overconfidence/CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 175Values-based Capitalism: What is the Aussie Treasurer planning? w/ John Humphreys - EP175
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers argues for values-based capitalism and against neoliberalism in a January 2023 essay in the Australian Monthly magazine. In this episode, show host Gene Tunny discusses the Treasurer’s essay with Dr John Humphreys. John is the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA) Chief Economist and the founder of the Australian Liberal Democrats. Gene and John discuss just how literally we should take the Treasurer, the risks of the so-called co-investment approach, and whether the Treasurer is arguing for socialism (or a different -ism). This episode features audio from an ATA Econ Chat livestream broadcast on 31 January 23. You can watch the whole thing here:https://www.facebook.com/AusTaxpayers/videos/509950911277607You can follow the ATA on various platforms including Facebook and YouTube.You can follow John Humphreys on Twitter.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP175Jim Chalmers’ idea of co-investing with the private sector [4:21]Regarding superannuation funds increasingly having social goals that they aim to meet as well as financial goals [9:12]The Australian stage 3 tax cuts and values-based capitalism: are they compatible? [12:37]ESG, stakeholder capitalism, and socialism [15:24]How does the Treasurer intend to direct investment? [23:28]How a poor government policy can lead to another poor government policy [27:31]The social impact investment bank expected in the 2023 Australian budget [32:34]Links relevant to the conversationJim Chalmers’ essay Capitalism after the CrisesClean Energy Finance Corporation Financial Outcomes 2021-22Australian Government principles for social impact investing | Treasury.gov.auImpact Investing Won’t Save Capitalism CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 174China’s falling population & global population update - EP174
The world’s population keeps growing and passed 8 billion in late 2022, but China’s population is now falling. There are concerns over what that means for its economy and the wider global economy. Is Paul Krugman right that a falling population means a weak Chinese economy? Show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes discuss the possible implications of a shrinking China, as well as global population projections out to 2100. The conversation touches on the environmental impact of a growing population and how well-placed we are to manage environmental challenges. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP174The world’s population is on the rise and passed 8 billion in November 2022 [4:24]Why post-war population growth was so strong [7:43]What does a declining Chinese population mean for the Chinese and global economies? [14:09]The importance of immigration in Australia population growth [19:27]How the world’s population will eventually level out toward the end of the century [23:35]Can governments solve environmental challenges? Discussion of the hole in the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol [30:09]Paul Krugman vs Dean Baker on the future of China [42:07]Tim asks how do you maintain a growth mindset in a declining population? How do you make it work? [47:25] Will demographics and a weaker economy bring down the Chinese administration? [53:06] Links relevant to the conversationUN World Population Prospects 2022 datahttps://population.un.org/wpp/Paul Krugman’s article “The problem(s) with China’s population drop”https://themarketherald.com.au/the-problems-with-chinas-population-drop-2023-01-19/ Dean Baker’s article “Paul Krugman, China’s Demographic Crisis, and the Which Way Is Up Problem in Economics”https://cepr.net/paul-krugman-chinas-demographic-crisis-and-the-which-way-is-up-problem-in-economics/China’s old-age dependency ratiohttps://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/Ratios/OADR/65plus/15-64/156Stanford Business School article “Baby Bust: Could Population Decline Spell the End of Economic Growth?” discussing Charles I Jones views on the link between population, innovation, and economic growthhttps://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/baby-bust-could-population-decline-spell-end-economic-growthCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 173Normalization of interest rates & monetary policy - EP173
Last year we saw the beginning of the normalization of interest rates and monetary policy, as central banks responded to accelerating inflation. Show host Gene Tunny talks about the current tightening cycle and when it might end with his colleague Arturo Espinoza. Among other things, Gene and Arturo discuss what history tells us about typical interest rates and returns on capital, referencing UK bank rate since 1694, interest rates on UK government consols, and returns on land written about by Jane Austen and Honoré de Balzac. They also consider whether we might see 17-18 percent interest rates again in Australia, rates which were last seen in 1989-90. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What’s covered in EP173What’s been happening with interest rates? [3:00]What is monetary policy normalization? [6:00]How many more interest rate increases will be needed? [11:11]Will we have a recession this year? [19:12]Is there a risk that we could get back to the crazily high interest rates seen in 1989-90 in Australia? [24:00]What is the equilibrium rate of interest? What is the real interest rate? [26:54]The main takeaway from this episode: monetary policy is still in a tightening cycle because inflation is too high [38:43]Links relevant to the conversationData released since the episode was recordedAustralian retail trade fell 3.9% in December, suggesting interest rate increases are starting to bite, meaning the RBA faces an even more difficult challenge in deciding how many more interest rate increases to make:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/dec-2022 CBC article “U.S. inflation and consumer spending eased in December, new numbers show”:https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-consumer-spending-holidays-1.6728173Nine News story “Inflation in Australia rises to higher-than-expected 7.8 per cent”:https://www.9news.com.au/finance/australia-inflation-consumer-price-index-december-quarter/9ef0ed13-e606-4c9e-b7db-feaccfae39fbInflation targetsUS: 2%; see https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/09/02/inflation-part-3-what-is-the-feds-current-goal-has-the-fed-met-its-inflation-mandateAustralia: 2-3%; see https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target.htmlUK: 2%; see https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policyBank of Finland article on monetary policy normalisation:https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2022/3/what-is-monetary-policy-normalisation/Chatham Financial article on US tightening cycles:https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/historical-interest-rate-tightening-cyclesJo Masters, Barrenjoey Chief Economist on how “Everything must go right for Australia to dodge a recession”https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/australia-will-dodge-close-call-recession-20221216-p5c71bChart on historical UK bank rate:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NDH7WjQBY0ZjWDWgY430qZdrrIf017_4/view?usp=share_linkChart on central bank policy interest rates since 1960:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Mrzre-ijAKAvrU0j4YeQt71FkTr-gzob/view?usp=share_linkChart on inflation in the US, UK and Australia:https://drive.google.com/file/d/11lp880Wwb9bk_GI5wJ0EQ975h-ZkAuDK/view?usp=share_linkWikipedia article on the Fisher equation:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_equationWikipedia article on UK consols:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consol_(bond)Guardian article on “UK bonds that financed first world war to be redeemed 100 years later”:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/31/uk-first-world-war-bonds-redeemedWhat Jane Austen can tell us about historical rates of return:https://janeaustensworld.com/2008/02/10/the-economics-of-pride-and-prejudice-or-why-a-single-man-with-a-fortune-of-4000-per-year-is-a-desirable-husband/CreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 172Do environmental and business sustainability go hand in hand? w/ John Engelander - EP172
Planet Earth Cleaning Co. and Ecobin founder John Engelander proposes that environmental and business sustainability can go hand-in-hand. Show host Gene Tunny asks John about the benefits and costs of businesses adopting more environmentally-friendly practices. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What we discuss with John Engelander, founder of Planet Earth Cleaning Co. and EcobinJohn’s epiphany that led to the birth of the Planet Earth Cleaning Company [4:15]What are the costs and benefits of adopting environmentally friendly business practices? [8:00]“It’s not an investment if it is destroying the planet” discussion, in which Gene mentions how economics has been trying to account for environmental impacts [20:38]Do we have enough time to avoid a climate/environmental crisis? [25:50]John asks Gene if we need to own cars? [33:54]John’s final thoughts on the importance of being a conscious consumer [44:29]About this episode’s guest: John EngelanderA true force of nature, CEO & Founder John was green way before it was cool. It was his belief in profit with a purpose that led him to start The Planet Earth Cleaning Company circa 1994, and he has been inspiring people and companies to be greener and better for the planet ever since.In 2007, John completed his certificate in Sustainability Advocacy at Swinburne University. He believes, “when you look after the planet, you look after yourself”. When we influence others to take responsible actions there is a ripple effect. And that’s part of doing good by being good.Today, John works with people that are looking for a healthier alternative & genuinely cares about making a difference to the planet, whether that’s through The Planet Earth Cleaning Company, the EcoBin business, or his personal advocacy & public speaking. John believes “conscious consumption is a great way to start. Afterall, less is more, and your planet will be healthier for it.” Now that’s good for business.Out of the office John burns off some of his high energy levels with water sports, snow skiing, mountain bike riding, cardio pilates and enjoying time in nature. And when not running after his kids and dogs, he likes to tinker on the piano, watch movies and have dinner with friends.Links relevant to the conversationJohn’s business EcoBin:https://www.ecobin.com.au/Quote by Vandana Shiva:https://quotefancy.com/quote/925201/Vandana-Shiva-It-s-not-an-investment-if-its-destroying-the-planetMastercard study quoted by Gene:https://www.mastercard.com/news/insights/2021/consumer-attitudes-environment/CSIRO article on natural capital accounting:https://ecos.csiro.au/knowing-the-price-of-nature-the-rise-of-natural-capital-accounting/UN article on The Rise, Fall and Rethinking of Green GDP:https://seea.un.org/news/rise-fall-and-rethinking-green-gdpAustralian Government guidance note on cost-benefit analysis, which makes it clear CBAs should consider environmental impacts, quantitatively if possible but otherwise qualitatively:https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/cosst-benefit-analysis.docxCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.
Ep 171Enterprise China: what western businesses need to know w/ Prof. Allen Morrison - EP171
Professor Allen Morrison has been studying China for over three decades and he’s an expert on the Enterprise China model, the close relationship between business and state in China. Chinese companies take the lead from Beijing to help meet state objectives, including reduced dependency on the west. In return they get competitive advantages over western businesses trying to break into China. In this episode, Prof. Morrison, from the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, talks to show host Gene Tunny about his new book with INSEAD’s Prof. Stewart Black on Enterprise China. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What we discuss with Prof. MorrisonHow the business model in China differs from the model in the west [01:50]How the Chinese Communist Party oversees businesses in China [10:20]What western businesses need to know when doing business in China [12:40]Does China have an imperial ambition? [17:28] Companies which have done well and those which have done badly in China [22:29]Challenges to the Enterprise China model and the CCP [27:48]Gene’s takeaways from the episode [39:30]About this episode’s guest: Allen MorrisonAllen J. Morrison is professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management. Morrison previously served as CEO and director-general, senior advisor for global management education and executive education initiatives at Arizona State University. Before joining ASU in 2014, Morrison was professor of global management and the holder of the Kristian Gerhard Jebsen Chair for Responsible Leadership in the Maritime Industry at IMD. Professor Morrison was also director of the IMD Global CEO Center, which focuses on the challenges CEOs face while leading their companies in the global economy.For further information about Prof. Morrison, check out his ASU page:https://search.asu.edu/profile/2551923Links relevant to the conversationGet a copy of Enterprise China: Adopting a Competitive Strategy for Business Success:https://amzn.to/3YMb1aIProf. Morrison’s article “Competing with “Enterprise China” vs. Chinese Enterprises” on the Thunderbird School of Global Management website:https://thunderbird.asu.edu/thought-leadership/insights/competing-enterprise-china-vs-chinese-enterprisesWilliam Kirby’s HBR article “The real reason Uber is giving up in China”:https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-real-reason-uber-is-giving-up-in-chinaCreditsThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
Ep 170Aussie energy crisis & Net Zero transition w/ Joshua Stabler, Energy Edge - EP170
Energy market expert Joshua Stabler shares his views on the current Aussie energy crisis and how well placed Australia and other countries are to transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Learn why Josh thinks that transition could be disorderly, and learn about the role self-driving EVs could play and whether Josh thinks nuclear energy and hydrogen are realistic options for Australia. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at [email protected] or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Joshua StablerJoshua Stabler is Managing Director of Energy Edge. He has extensive experience in supply-side market operations for the electricity and gas sectors, and as an advisor and system developer in the Australian energy industry.Joshua is the architect of the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT), which is utilised by gas producers, LNG participants, gas generators, end users, financial intermediaries and banks. Joshua is also the author of The Edge – Gas Market Update report.Joshua has a BE (Computer Systems).You can follow Josh on LinkedIn:https://au.linkedin.com/in/josh-stabler-6683895bLinks relevant to the conversationEnergy Edge, the advisory business Josh is Managing Director of:https://www.energyedge.com.au/What are Renewable Energy Zones? https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-renewable-energy-zone/AbbreviationsEV Electric vehicleNEM National Electricity MarketREZ Renewable Energy Zone CreditsThanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.