Disorder

The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues? And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time? In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting. Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/ What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win “I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans: https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a night of trepidation at Jason’s watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat’ Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash’ coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage? Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order. Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy Show Notes Links To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/ Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/ On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp ‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/ On Michigan’s Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955 And the ‘Uncommitted’ movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What do professional ‘futurists’ think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won’t be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future? In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office. Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win Show Notes Links The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/ UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To celebrate Halloween, Jason goes on the Keen On show hosted by friend of the Disorder Pod, Andrew Keen, to talk about America’s spooky election and the crazy conspiracy theories that are floating around this election cycle. What does it really mean when people say the 2020 election was stolen or that Bill Gates implants people with microchips via their Covid Vaccines? Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump’s election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them’ turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy! Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control’ from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed! Show Notes Links Read Jason’s New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/ And revisit last week’s Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers’ with Joe Uscinski here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi Check out Andrew Keen’s Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/ Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whether it is solar panels or steel, clothes or tech, many of the world’s manufactures are made in China. But did you know that the Chinese manufacturing sector is not really supply and demand driven and tends to produce far more than the rest of the world demands? Now… with a faltering post-COVID recovery, a housing market collapse, and worsening relationship with the West, is China’s economy in a genuine state of crisis? And could a troubled Chinese economy, unable to be buoyed by the recently announced stimulus, spread more Disorder globally? And what should the US and UK do to contain China’s disordering potential? And how are different approaches to the Chinese economy a key electoral issue in the upcoming US Presidential election? Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe’ Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt. As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read Zoe’s article ‘China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model’ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu Read more on why ‘China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable’https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902 On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance’s phone’s: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html For more on China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260 To get more on Zongyuan Zoe Liu https://www.cfr.org/expert/zongyuan-zoe-liu Watch US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns explain The China Challenge https://foreignpolicy.com/live/burns-china-us-competition-diplomacy/ Read George Manus’ piece ‘China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity‘ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity Mdrq8iUx3UeSW1wKHnRS gLbp92U6Rko7bk7XM6ra Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From immigrants eating pets, to Jewish space lasers starting wildfires, to 9/11 ‘trutherism’, our disordered world – and particularly the rhetoric surrounding the 2024 US Election – is awash with conspiracy theories. Are these theories: ways of venting anti-establishment anger, merely entertaining distractions, dangerous socially acceptable ways of conveying hate for minorities, or do they actually convey meaningful calls to revolutionary political action? What is the hidden meaning encoded in the plot lines and specific tropes of particular popular conspiracy theories? And why do neo-populist leaders push – and anti-establishment voters believe in them? Are conspiracy theories inherently ‘disordering’ and do they make it more difficult for today’s politicians to solve pressing challenges? To explore this complex world, Jason Pack is joined by Joseph Uscinski. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, author of ‘Conspiracy Theories: A Primer’, and editor of Conspiracy ‘Theories and the People Who Believe Them’. Throughout the episode, Jason engages in a conspiracy to come up with a unified field theory of how to unlock the meaning of conspiracy theories. Joe rains on his parade, rejecting most of Jason’s pet theories, while unsurprisingly approving of his own pet theory: ‘Conspiracy Theories are for Losers and express a coherent world view that suits those without economic or political power’. Jason and Joe discuss how conspiracy theories have become intertwined with certain types of modern political movements (especially disordering neo-populist ones), the psychological and social factors that motivate belief in conspiracy theories, the role of antisemitism throughout much conspiratorial thinking, and how these theories often target marginalised groups. The show closes with various sharp debates like over whether entertainment value or calls to political action have key roles to play in the spread of conspiracy theories. Lastly, when they Order the Disorder, Jason and Joe disagree vehemently over the role of global institutions should play in curtailing the spread of conspiracy theories. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops tomorrow October 23rd Show Notes Links For various experts who think Conspiracy Theories entail and motivate actions: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/marianna-in-conspiracyland/id1690561703?i=1000616687886 Get Joseph’s book, Conspiracy Theories: A Primer: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/conspiracy-theories-joseph-e-uscinski/1133459048 Listen to Joseph explain conspiracy theories and the people who believe them: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dr-joseph-uscinski-conspiracy-theories-and-the-people/id1599806986?i=1000549404259 Listen to Joseph on confronting conspiracy theories: https://www.podcastone.com/episode/Episode-8---Confronting-Conspiracy-Theories-with-Joseph-Uscinski Read how conspiracy theories have taken hold in far right communities: https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/i-went-undercover-among-the-fascists-and-this-is-what-i-found-rd5o5whq Read the definition Jason uses for popular conspiracy theories: https://allthatsinteresting.com/popular-conspiracy-theories Read definition of the 6 types of conspiracy theories: https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2024/02/25/a-psychologist-explains-6-types-of-conspiracy-theories/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly. But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West? In this’ investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/ Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583 Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/ Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine’ by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What can games of skill and chance, of risk and reward – like Poker and Backgammon– teach diplomats, policymakers, and interested participants about how to Order the Disorder? In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox’s upbringing, New York’s gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations. The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River’ (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village’ (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today’s crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness. If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to the World’s current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason’s friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803 Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/ For another more personal interview about Wilcox’s life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE Read more about Nate Silver’s book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review And a fairly cogent critique of Silver’s book: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/on-the-edge-book-review-nate-silver-risk/ Read Jason’s article written in Dubai three years ago about Backgammon, peace making, and the Abraham Accords: https://www.mei.edu/publications/personal-vantage-point-gamble-abraham-accords-dubais-first-international-backgammon Watch Jason Play a commentated tournament backgammon live from Dubai starting at 3:51:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDxx1yG78o Listen to current world number 1, Mochy on Backgammon and Life on the Etan Ilfeld Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

(This episode flows from Ep 73 Part I: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre – please listen to it first if you have not.) In this second part of our series recapping a year of the Israel-Hamas War, Jason and Sir Vincent Fean (former British Consul General in Jerusalem and former Chairman of the Balfour Project) pivot their discussion to the current state of Palestinian political institutions, the Palestinian question on the international diplomatic stage; international legal rulings against Israel’s occupation; Britain’s historic role in the Palestine question and its ensuing responsibilities to the Palestinians; the actions of Sir Keir’s government to bring about Palestinian statehood; and the longer term implications of the current conflict for the future of the Middle East and the world. Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen. For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284 On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A year ago today, the Middle East and the world changed forever. Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians broke through the Gaza border fence into Israel and began massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages. A few weeks later, Israel began an aerial bombardment campaign and ground occupation of Gaza that has caused tens of thousands of casualties, leveled most of Gaza’s buildings, and seems to have no end in sight. To support Hamas, Hizbollah began firing missiles into Northern Israel from southern Lebanon, even before the Israeli incursion in Gaza began. This has recently led to Israeli decapitation strikes against Hizbollah’s leadership and an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain’s Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO. In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent. For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th videos: https://time.com/6565186/october-7-hamas-attack-footage-film/ Listen back to ep on ICC Verdict: Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/7a0930e7d9052f19cd7072d72214edfb UNRWA Imperiled by Terrorism Charges: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/unrwa-israel-gaza-terrorism.html On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air in some ways. The discussion was civil, with Vance in particular attempting to present himself as reasonable. But hiding underneath the crisp suit, eloquent banter, and agreeable disagreements, is a Disorderer, who could become President in 2028, if not sooner. In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.’ The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively. For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html Listen to Greg’s podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699 Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/ Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that they had killed Hezbollah’s charismatic leader – and terrorist master mind -- Hassan Nasrallah. He was frequently described as the leader of the globe’s most powerful non-state armed group. So, what does Nasrallah’s exit from the stage and the ongoing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, mean for the region? Amidst the humanitarian crisis and vast escalatory pressures, how can we Order the Disorder? To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder. For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1 Read Tom Fletcher’s (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c) piece on what’s next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb Read Michael Young’s Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46 More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/ Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/ Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both the regional risks and the domestic political implications - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/israel-has-assassinated-the-secretary-general-of-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah?lang=en&center=middle-east Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

‘Peak Disorder’ is Jason’s coinage for: the democratic world’s inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. This phenomenon of ‘peak disorder’ is epitomized over the last two months by events in Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country’s president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections. Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh’s transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder’, Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre. To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation: https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511 Michael’s bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh: https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190 A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/104180756 And for an update on the current state of play in Bangladesh and what might lie ahead: https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-khaleda-zia-election-3525d4c39c748a974f67b62efadb23b9 And for the conceptual take on how Tyrants rise and fall revisit Ep 67 with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does getting kidnapped in Mexico City have in common with taking Western backpackers on tours of North Korean? Each provides key insights into the disordering essence of how autocracies function and why symbolism is important to dictatorial securocrats. This rather chatty episode builds off of our more academic and systematic look at similar themes in “Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security” with Marcel Dirsus last Tuesday in episode 67. In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links To listen to Jordan’s show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer’s Guide to Lasting Love Part One’ here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/ And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To celebrate Disorder’s One Year Anniversary, Alex and Jason recap the shows Greatest Hits, share their thoughts on their favourite guests; explain how their views of the world have changed over the last year; speculate on how today’s disorder is different from what came before; and disagree slightly agreeably about how the moral failings of the Anglo-American colonial empire of bygone days is or is not different from the Chinese and Russian empires of today. After proceeding through these reminiscences, we take listeners questions about Putin, AI, China, imperialism, how recording the podcast has changes how Jason and Alex see the world, and if there are any new orderers on the world stage. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references, With Bill Browder (on Navalny’s death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8 With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From Putin to Qadhafi, from Mohammed bin Salman to Trump… our current era of Enduring Disorder is filled with many Tyrants and Tyrant-wannabes. But why do Tyrants tend to seek Disorder rather than Order? The answer appears to lie in Tyrants’ Endless Quest for Regime Security. Dictators have a marked predilection to put their own desire to cling to power in the short-and medium-term above all other considerations – even if that means deliberately making their countries’ economies and militaries inefficient or willfully spreading Disorder around the globe. To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason’s old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive’. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate’ — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power. They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate’ than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants’ henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory’ on how we understand international politics? oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293 Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/ But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason’s book: https://globalenduringdisorder.com/ Read more about Marcel at https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots Visit his website https://www.marceldirsus.com/ Visit his substack https://thehundred.substack.com/ And for the reference to Nadav Safran’s ‘Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security’: https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Arabia-Ceaseless-Quest-Security/dp/0674789857 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason and Alex explain the implications for global order of the first, and possibly onl,y 2024 Presidential Candidates Debate btw Harris and Trump. It was like a legendary heavyweight boxing match between a woman auditioning to be the mega-orderer-in-chief and the most well established disorderer the world has ever scene. And it ended in a more dramatic fashion than even an epic Howard Cosell play-by-play: Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier. Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin’s wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size’ at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens. We at the Disorder Pod don’t want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala’s performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it. Show Notes Links: Read Alex’s Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/ Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump’s debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270 Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000668933282 Listen to our take on Harris’s weaknesses with white men from yesterday here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3MtV4SS0QjAQGN5p9distS?go=1&sp_cid=40c19a23f8ed49573a18b2bb3c9b9b95&utm_source=embed_player_p&utm_medium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=c462b99a0ae7432c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Jason and Alex catchup after an eventful summer. Alex discusses her main takeaways from her trip to Tbilisi for the McCain forum, while Jason talks about his conversations back in New Jersey with real American voters. These conversations are giving him a pit in his stomach. His mounting concern is that Harris may fall into the Clinton trap – turning off traditionally Democratic voting white middle-aged men who are not from the coastal elite. Jason has been speaking to some ‘real Americans’ and hearing that they find Harris an uppity female lawyer, who doesn’t stand for anything, and who is too inauthentic to win the 2024 US Presidential election. Pivoting away from this doom and gloom, the duo take listener questions. They look at how host countries could better assimilate migrants; whether Starmer should take a braver approach to push the UK back into the single market; how to stave off the rise in populist parties like AfD; how to push back against anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories from one’s colleagues; and if a nationalised health system like the NHS can deliver ‘Ordering Solutions’ for its population or if the failure of the NHS at present showcases that state-led mega ordering is simply not possible in today’s world. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our million downloads episode which was referenced numerous times, especially about Sweden, Privatization, health care, and assimilation/migration, https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c8bf88a4b5b3bfc2ba60f36c12bc4de And for more on Harris and her problems being bold and landing with White men: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-political-director-warns-of-trouble-sign-for-harris-as-she-lags-with-white-male-voters-in-key-states/ar-AA1q3lkL And her problems also surface with Hispanic voters, especially men: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/skeptical-voters-wrestle-know-kamala-harris-seen-donald-trump-rcna168784 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Harvey Whitehouse, author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World, rejoins Jason Pack for part 2 of their discussion. The duo discuss: whether nationalism can be used for good (rather than just as a calling card for Neo-Populists and disorderers); whether playing off of evolutionary biases towards in-group solidarity might be necessary to solve the collective action problems of today’s world, how putting policy creation in the hands of citizens assemblies might help us Order the Disorder; and what lessons traditional religiosity could teach us about creating Order. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227 For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/ Explore the ideas of Peter Turchin’s ‘Ultrasociety’: https://peterturchin.com/book/ultrasociety/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the last two decades the seemingly ‘connecting’ phenomena of globalization and the internet have not made human communities more united. Seemingly paradoxically, aided by new technologies and interconnections, new forms of tribalism, superstition, in-group conformism, and out-group hatred have spread. Are these patterns of in-group solidarity and out-group distrust just the way humans are biologically wired to think? In today’s episode, Jason Pack is joined by Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. Jason and Harvey explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see their very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227 For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/ Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To celebrate ONE MILLION downloads (thanks mega orderers!), Jason is joined by his best friend and lecturer at the Swedish Defence College, Karl Karim Zakhour. The two ruminate on a host of topics including: the rather surprising interconnections between neo-liberal reforms in Sweden and Syria and what they tell us about our era of Global Enduring Disorder; whether 2004 was the worst year in geopolitics, but the best year to drink arak in Damascus; whether a certain kind of vulgar Hegelianism might just save us from the current disorder; and whether Kier Starmer might just have what it takes to be the antidote to the rise of the far-right authoritarians. The episode concludes with Jason taking stock of what he has learned from doing the Disorder pod by laying out his vision for the kind of global institutions needed to make a Global Enduring Order come into being while Karim explains why bottom-up organizing and more voluntary associations are also needed to help us Order the Disorder. Links: For more on Karim Zakhour and the Försvarshögskolan: https://www.fhs.se/sc/profile-page.html?identity=400.506a10b718cee96f44e50adb The Origins of AGE: From States and Markets to Scientific Methods (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_23) What will the world look like in a hundred years? What will the study of international relations be like? This article lays out a vision of the future, at once familiar and unexpected. Entrepreneurs of desperation: Young men and migration in interior Tunisia (https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003353232-11/entrepreneurs-desperation-karim-zakhour) The article looks at how young men in Tunisia try to navigate around harsh economic realities and dream of better lives. While We Wait: Democratization, State and Citizenship among Young Men in Tunisia's Interior Regions (https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1456250&dswid=5417) Why did the Tunisian democratic experiment fail? Based on long fieldwork this Ph. D thesis argues that democratization creates both opportunities and deep uncertainties that are amplified by economic failures and thus creates its own authoritarian reaction. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We all know about the potential threats as AI becomes more advanced. They range from spreading disinformation, undermining our democracy (as discussed in our previous episode with Miles Taylor), to completely upending the job market. But could AI be used to radically transform the way bureaucracy works (making it more efficient) and helping us Order the Disorder? To discuss whether AI could be used as an ‘Ordering Force’ if regulated properly, Jason is joined by Marc Warner. Marc is the founder of Faculty.AI, and has worked with many UK government agencies and leading multinational brands to implement impactful AI solutions. He sat on the Prime Minister’s AI Council, helped the NHS use AI to save thousands of lives during the pandemic, and attended the first ever AI Safety Summit. Jason and Marc discuss: the role AI could play in fixing Britain’s broken public services, whether a Starmer-led Britain could become an AI superpower, and how the whole globe desperately needs global co-ordination to keep AI from turning into a Disordering technology. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our previous episode with Miles Taylor, Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed Read: ‘Using AI to transform public services’ (foreword written by Marc & Tony Blair) https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/governing-in-the-age-of-ai-a-new-model-to-transform-the-state Watch: ‘Human Led AI’ - a talk by Marc https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/human-led-ai Read: ‘AI Could Save (the UK) Government £200 Billion Over Five Years’ https://www.institute.global/insights/news/ai-could-save-government-gbp200-billion-over-five-years Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason and Alex answer some questions from our mega orderers. They discuss: the ICC’s role as an ordering institution and its controversial positions on Israel/Palestine; the difference lens and standards through which we need to view elected vs. unelected Disorderers; and why the West can’t compromise with any of Putin’s demands – or even negotiate with him – but needs to exhibit ironclad resolve in backing Ukraine’s willingness to fight. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/ Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In part 2 of our discussion with Jamie Metzl, author of Superconvergence, Jaime tells Jason about his idea for creating a new global body tasked with regulated existential risks. Jaime is a super order who sees most of the threats facing humanity as fundamentally linked and wishes to adopt one coherent and coordinated approach to Order the Disorder. Trying to unpick how such regulation could be done, Jamie, Jason and Alex each analyse the differences between an American and European approach to regulating new industries. Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population? While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions. To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/ For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/ And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Economist called Tunisia a “light unto the Arab nations” just a decade ago, yet it may soon be fading into darkness. We talk with Tunisia’s Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate, Olfa Hamdi, to find out why. Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere. On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766 Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/ Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play? https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history. Jason may be quoting the Guardian article (whose link is further down in the shownotes), but he is not exaggerating. Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive. Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane. Yet, better late than never. On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A week ago today, NATO wrapped up its 75th anniversary summit. At the event genuine support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder? To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links “Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/ Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed. Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance. As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden For More on the Republican convention: As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0OwsWUbmOw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about its probably future? To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006. Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964 About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

‘The people that walked in darkness have seen a great light; and they that dwell in the land of the shadow of Brexit, upon them hath the light shined.’ (Isaiah 9, v.2 with only one word changed) In retrospect, the melodies and lyrics of Handel’s Messiah appear quite appropriate for this most non-Messianic of Messiahs, the man of our moment, Sir Keir. Therefore, despite Alex and Jason’s fear about the large Reform vote and their trepidation about Biden’s remaining in the US Presidential race, they still make time to ‘Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice Greatly’ because British democracy does work. It operates via a system of checks and balances -- where every action causes a counter reaction, and every Sunak Rwanda scheme, Truss tanking of the economy, and Boris-y lie elicits a shift in public opinion. Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273 Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Listen to an potted biography of Sir Keir’s personal, professional, and intellectual journey: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/origin-story/id1624704966?i=1000660203835 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Later this week as they go to the polls, UK voters will likely celebrate their very own ‘Independence from Neo-Populists Day’. With Labour widely expected to secure a large majority… could this be a chance for Order within an increasingly Disordered West? If he cruises to victory, as expected, how will Sir Keir manage his relations with the EU and US? In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/ Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After months of the grandees in the Democratic party telling the public that Biden’s age was nothing to worry about: the Global Orderer-in Chief has been shown to have no clothes and his adult diapers were not changed prior to his appearing before an audience of tens of millions. As Mega-Orderers know, Jason is prone to melodrama, but in this instance the Sky Really Is Falling! June 27, 2024 may go down there as one of those dates like Dec 7, 1941 and June 23, 2016: Dates that will live on in infamy. Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate. To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful: Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Exactly 110 years ago, a malnourished teenager with a pistol disordered the world. On Sunday the 28th of June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two bullets. They hit their targets -- killing both the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian imperial crown, and his wife, Sophie. That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder? Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914? In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo. Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/ For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Butcher And for his great episode on our sister Pod, Battleground: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/121-how-the-2006-war-relates-to-gaza-today/id1617276298?i=1000640849125 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We celebrate 9 full months of Disorder with a live studio recording. Climate change hasn’t been acted on coherently by a coalition of major powers, while certain governments and businesses have prevented climate action choosing to pursue short-term goals. Is this to be expected? Is it rational for some governments and business to pull in different directions or are they missing the plot and thinking too short-term? But then again, is it in the long-term interest of most major states, citizens, and multinational corporations to work together to fight climate change? Or is it actually a rational calculation for certain states or corporations (like oil producing ones) to fight the creation of global coordination mechanisms and delay the energy transition and look to profit from the current high demand for the fossil fuels that they either export or produce? To discuss this issue, Jason Pack is joined by Olivia Azadegan and Hassan Damluji. Hassan Damluji is a British-Iraqi development expert and author of The Responsible Globalist: What Citizens of the World Can Learn from Nationalism. He is Co-founder of Global Nation, which focuses on improving international cooperation to combat climate change, pandemics, inequality and conflict. Olivia Azadegan is a British-Iranian, a fellow at the Women Leaders in Energy and Climate Change at the Atlantic Council and a winner of a Forbes 30 under 30 Award. The trio discuss: what is the role of the MENA region in fighting climate change, how can nations effectively coordinate to incentivise each other to act now, and why low hanging fruit like reducing methane emissions could help us Order the Disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our previous Climate Change focusing on COP episode at: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/57a09a9714313530fa16475c09396f7b For more on COP and collective action: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/13/in-a-first-cop28-targets-the-root-cause-of-climate-change How MENA countries face achieving climate resilience: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/04/assessing-climate-adaptation-plans-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa?lang=en Exploring the Energy Transition and Net-Zero Strategies of Gulf Oil Producers: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/exploring-energy-transition-and-net-zero-strategies-gulf-oil-producers A profile of our Queen for an episode: https://www.forbes.com/profile/olivia-azadegan/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Renowned Israeli Military historian Martin Van Creveld explains to Disorder listeners how certain essential elements of warfare have remained constant overtime. These continuities have been frequently overlooked in the sensationalizing media coverage of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. In major interstate warfare, the defense retains its traditional advantages just as it did when Carl von Clausewitz penned his famous ‘On War’; in counter insurgency warfare separating insurgents from the shelter they receive from the local population remains as complex as when Mao Tze Dong wrote his ‘On Guerrilla Warfare’; and maintaining deterrence vis a vis one’s adversaries remains just as important as when Theodore Roosevelt suggested at the Minnesota State Fair in 1901 that one should ‘speak softly, and carry a big stick.’ Drawing on his extensive research over decades, Martin presents a rare treat for Disorder listeners sharing his theories on deterrence, the imitative nature of war, what makes people willing to fight and die, the tragedy of the Palestinians, propaganda in War, and what can be done to help Israelis and Palestinians understand each other’s narratives better. Martin Van Creveld has written 33 books with fluidity and grace on topics as wide ranging as tank battles, feminism, human consciousness, Western philosophy, and terrorism. Martin has briefed every major Western military and his books ‘Command in War’; ‘Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton’; ‘The Transformation of War’; ‘The Sword and the Olive’ and ‘The Rise and Decline of the State’; ‘the Culture of War’; ‘Pussycats: The West and the Rest’ have changed how war is studied at military academies the world over. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links On supply in War: https://www.bookandsword.com/2021/07/03/some-thoughts-on-van-crevelds-supplying-war/ On airpower: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/24/books/review/book-review-the-age-of-airpower-by-martin-van-creveld.html Famous Martin Van Creveld Quotes: https://www.azquotes.com/author/3400-Martin_Van_Creveld Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heretofore, this podcast has largely examined the blame that neo-liberals, neo-conservatives, and neo-populists on the Right bear in causing our era of global enduring disorder. Now is the turn to set our crosshairs on the disorder that comes from the ideas of the Left. Recent events reveal that the Left lacks a coherent vision of the global economy, of global institutions, and possibly of the objectives of Western foreign policy in general. To be intellectually honest, we must ask is the progressive Left as guilty as the neo-populist Right in disordering the globe? These days, many on the progressive left are outraged with Biden, Sunak, and Starmer’s centrism and demand a more humanitarian approach to Anglo-American foreign policy, but are those progressive voices sufficiently concerned about whether or not their preferred approach will lead to global order? Jason is joined by Professor Megan Stewart of the University of Michigan to discuss the implications of her co-authored essay in Foreign Affairs, ‘The Progressive Case Against Retrenchment’. Megan explains that progressive American scholars have largely characterized their ‘progressive vision of foreign policy’ as one where the US and the West restrains its exercise of hegemonic power abroad. She explains that for these progressive thinkers, the U.S. is the greatest source of imperialism, war, and insecurity. Megan explains why they think this way and Jason shares his feelings that this train of thought is a recipe for further disorder. Megan concludes with a dose of hard nose realism arguing that force MAY be justified on progressive grounds, and that a truly progressive foreign policy means grappling with inevitable tradeoffs and trying to minimize them. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Megan's co-authored article The Progressive Case for American Power https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/progressive-case-american-power For more on Megan: https://www.meganastewart.org/bio Her book Governing For Revolution: Social Transformation in Civil War: https://www.meganastewart.org/book-project Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The sordid tale of Tory mega donor, Mohamed Amersi, and his libel suit against Charlotte Leslie was an attempt to turn money into control over the truth. To our mind, there is no greater example of how the underlying principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder connect bribery in Kazakhstan and Kathmandu to Brexit, the Ukraine war, and shadowy consultancies which offer pay-for-play access to the British elite. In part 2 of Jason’s conversation with Tom Burgis, the duo talk about some of the biggest corruption cases in British history, how the complex story of post-Cold War deregulation has fuelled both global corruption and donations to the Tory party. This story has surprising implications for who has access to the British royal family and fundamentally who owns the truth. After the interview, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing whether increased international co-ordination can curtail illegal money flows, and what a potential incoming Starmer-led Labour government could do domestically to prevent illicit gains from being recycled into campaign donations. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’ https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland For more on CMEC’s visit to rogue Libyan general Haftar: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libyan-general-haftar-meets-uk-conservative-delegation For more on Mohamed Amersi and his liable suit against Charlotte Leslie, read Tom’s ‘Tory fundraising machine to come under scrutiny in UK court case’ in the FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/fcf90497-e283-4645-b18f-d95d35ff3fcd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Corruption, in one form or another, is as old as civilization. As long as there have been governmental authorities, private businesspeople have found ways to bribe them to get preferential deals. So, what is different about corruption in our era of Global Enduring Disorder? To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Tom Burgis -- award winning investigative journalist, and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth. In this episode (Part 1 of 2), the duo discuss how laws and decisions in the City of London and Washington, DC actually enable kleptocratic behaviour in places like Nigeria and Kazakhstan. Plus: why are skilled middlemen and fixers so critical in enabling transnational corruption? And what kind of systemic risks do such dirty dealings abroad and the offshoring of illicit gains pose to our own politics and security? To Order the Disorder, Alex Hall Hall joins Jason to analyse how the conduits of mega corruption is actually at the centre of our post-Cold War global story, and not at its periphery. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy - Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’ https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland Read PodBible’s interview with Alex and Jason here: https://podbiblemag.com/disorder-giving-order-to-the-global-enduring-disorder/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At the end of the 20th century many world governments sought to lower birth rates – e.g. China’s One Child Policy – but now in 2024… most major world governments are focussed on bringing fertility rates up. In fact, nearly all of the developed world is facing a declining and aging population. Hence, for the first time in human history a majority of the globe’s population now lives under governments with a stated intent to influence childbearing. So why do so many governments seem obsessed with national fertility rates? Should they be in the business of encouraging more people to have children – and if yes, what kind of incentives do or don’t work? Are their coherent international regulations governing adoption and surrogacy and if not, why not? Is the domain of demography another realm of coordination failures and enduring disorder? To start this week’s episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the overall demographic state of our planet and why there can be so much traffic at the Holland Tunnel even amidst failing fertility rates. Alex talks about her own IVF journey and the thought process that led to the eventual adoption of her kids and she discusses why governments need holistic approaches to fertility rather than the mere use of cash incentives. Jason rails about the glaring need for global governance to provide universally acknowledged rules concerning adoption, surrogacy, and to deter the use of those pesky chemicals in plastics that reduce men’s sperm counts. To close the show, Alex and Jason take some listener questions. They cover: 1) Could Russia implode when Putin loses in Ukraine? 2) Should Britain finally create a written constitution? 3) Are voices that point out western hypocrisy without proposing solutions actually spreading disorder? And 4) All things considered (meaning holidays, NHS, and public transport) is one better compensated in the UK or US for the same work? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000649683423 Hear Are we living through an infertility epidemic? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000650753528 Listen to The Guardian’s The chilling policy to cut Greenland’s high birth rate https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000652922783 Check out Who screwed millennials: a generation left behind – Full Story podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000650954693 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason is so so so excited he just just just can’t hide it. He sees the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. He doesn’t understand why his British friends poopoo his man crush on Starmer, because he sees Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent version of Biden. To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, Jason is joined by his Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britian’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall. The duo discuss: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice. The show ends with Jason putting forward his mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing: https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/is-this-why-he-called-it-now Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-date-lifts-fog-over-promising-market-recovery-2024-05-23/ How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/what-labours-foreign-policy Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to US Republicans and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ally-hits-out-at-david-cameron-for-lecturing-us/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time! This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine. Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled. What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it. After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162 Learn more about what is going on: Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/ More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/ For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky: https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852 Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn: Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733 And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/ Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law. Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country. So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond? To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili. An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington." She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/ Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Part of the Enduring Disorder is our increasingly divided and partisan narratives. Trump vs. Biden, Leavers against Remainers, Palestinians and Israelis. Many of today’s political actors appear unable to understand and empathise with their opponent’s points of view. Why? Potential because social media, cancel culture, and increased partisanship seems to have actually decreased people’s ability to feel empathy or to desire it from their politicians. But should all our politicians just be more empathetic? Actually electorally that might not work. Do Democrats actually want to see Biden empathise with Speaker Johnson blocking aid to Ukraine? Would Labour voters accept it if Kier Starmer had sympathy with Boris Johnson lying to parliament? And does the Israeli electorate want a politician who has empathy for why Hamas committed the atrocities of Oct 7? So what does empathy really mean in geopolitics? And how can it actually be put into practice in today’s politics? Most crucially how could a genuinely empathetic politics be useful in trying to order the disorder? To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Dr Claire Yorke. She is an author and academic whose work explores the role and limitations of empathy and emotions in international relations, diplomacy, strategy, and political leadership. She is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Australian War College in Canberra. Jason and Claire discuss: what exactly is empathy? Can or should you empathise with someone that you fundamentally disagree with? And could empathetic leadership help us Order the Disorder? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Claire’s essay, Is empathy a strategic imperative? https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800 Read Claire Yorke: "Personal and Political Emotions in the Mind of the Diplomat.". https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800 Claire’s website: https://claireyorke.me Find out more about Empathy Week – to help grow empathy in the classroom and create a new generation who understands its value - https://www.empathy-week.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in Europe – is now having a new debate about whether there should be a “Eurobomb”. All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used? In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/ Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435 For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Small states like Qatar, Ireland, Singapore, Jordan, and Botswana are thriving in our disordered world. They’re smart, agile, and are implementing novel solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. So what can the globe learn from them? In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World’. They look at how: 1) successful small states could use their growing economic power to promote stability, 2) how Armenia could leverage its most unique strategic resource, its diaspora, and 3) why bringing together small states into an international club – the S20 – could actually make a big difference in helping to Order the Disorder. In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether we’re in a world where smallness is an asset, how NATO and the EU should respond to Armenia’s geopolitical tilt towards the West, and whether the S20 could present novel ways to Order the Disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ Armenia’s Westward shift and the new aid package: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Shift-West-Draws-Ire-from-Moscow-and-Baku.html From the Washington Post: A cry for the refugees of emptied Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘We are nobody’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/david-ignatius-nagorno-karabakh-refugees-azerbaijan-enclave/ On the Mayhem in the Georgian Parliament: https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1779820924734206064 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why? In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040 On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162 If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation. To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding. Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: James Hodgson Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36 For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/ For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/ And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656 Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong. The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure. China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching? To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st. Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him. To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict. They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/ Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/ And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/ Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices