Seems Like a Bad Idea
Cheap Talk · Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes
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Show Notes
How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake again
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Further Reading:
Will Oremus and Jeremy B. Merrill. 2026. “A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats.” Washington Post.