Cheap Talk

How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake againThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading:Will Oremus and Jeremy B. Merrill. 2026. “A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats.” Washington Post.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasherThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Watching:International Institute for Strategic Studies Panel, “Securing the Strait of Hormuz in Wartime: Military Options and Strategic Challenges.”

Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions were right, but came ten months lateThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the tableThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The State of the Union foreign policy lightning round; the possibility of imminent war with Iran; confusing signals from the US; strategic clarity and the effectiveness of deterrent threats; the challenges of finding another Iran deal; tension between Anthropic and the Defense Department; hints of AI governance; and Marcus isn’t sure premium gas is worth itThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty has expired; the beneficial side effects of arms control; the value of treaty-breaking as a low-cost signal in international relations; the decline of arms control as an international priority; China’s strategic calculus; whether verification is important in arms control treaties; arms control as a casualty of the war in Ukraine; planning our next move in a post-arms control world; and Marcus is a little naïveThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Get a Whoop:Chase Sapphire cardholders can get a free or discounted Whoop fitness band and Whoop Life subscription. Be sure to register for the discount first on the Chase website, then get an additional discount when you sign up with code B663EDA6. See all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk takes a break from IR to discuss vibe coding; the CheapTalkBot origin story; new opportunities to express creativity via vibe coding; mid-century modern architecture in Palm Springs; whether non-programmers can really do this; ChatGPT vs. Claude; context windows in AI tools; the use of AI for Retrieval Augmented Generation; and Marcus isn’t being creative enoughThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Further Exploring:Check out Jeff’s Palm Springs Scavenger Hunt AppSee all Cheap Talk episodes

It is 85 seconds to midnight (according to the Doomsday Clock); evaluating the risk of catastrophe; the latest Board of Peace developments; another speech pointing to the end of the international system as we know it; what it means for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense; and Marcus recalls World War IIThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Further Listening/Reading:Cheap Talk Podcast. 2024. “Exercise in Optimism” (Jan. 27), via Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the web.Gabriel A. Almond and Stephen J. Genco. 1977. “Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics.” World Politics 29(4): 489–522.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk returns from winter break to discuss the Venezuela situation; what is driving US Venezuela policy; implications of the US capture of Maduro; signaling US seriousness in international affairs; similarities between Venezuela and Greenland; IR theory in Canadian PM Carney’s Davos speech; and Marcus was, yet again, surprised by eventsThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Further Watching:Special Address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026See all Cheap Talk episodes

The degradation of the State Department’s official correspondence due to font choice; the Trump Administration releases its National Security Strategy; the return of spheres of influence and the primacy of the Western Hemisphere for US policy; the supposed decline of European civilization; the general problem with national security strategy documents; the glaring absence of the liberal international order in US strategy; and Marcus is generally confused about fontsCheap Talk is taking a holiday break, but will be back with new episodes in January. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading:Michael Crowley and Hamed Aleaziz. 2025. “At State Dept., a Typeface Falls Victim in the War Against Woke.” New York Times. The White House. 2025. National Security Strategy of the United States. Emily Harding. 2025. “The National Security Strategy: The Good, the Not So Great, and the Alarm Bells.” Center for Strategic and International Studies.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The US plan for peace between Russia and Ukraine; what Putin wants out of a settlement; the wider effects of the war on Europe; Jared Kushner is back; what AI is actually good for (according to a new study); gifts for the IR enthusiast in your life; and Marcus would like a map for ChristmasThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Further Reading:Tejal Patwardhan et. al. 2025. “GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Tasks.” OpenAI White Paper. IR books that make perfect holiday gifts:Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow Face to Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes Inside the Situation Room, edited by Hillary Rodham Clinton and Karen Yarhi-Milo (featuring a chapter by Marcus Holmes)Featured items from the Cheap Talk shop:Cheap Talk Live commemorative t-shirtCeding Human Control mug Cheap Talk holographic sticker setAnd many more great IR gifts at the Cheap Talk shop!Jeff’s other gift suggestions for the IR enthusiast:International News/Analysis: The Economist (discounted for teachers & faculty and for students), Foreign Affairs (discounted for students and teachers), War on the RocksScratch-off world mapUN Peacekeeper toy helmet International Spy Museum Store CIA Mug with George H.W. Bush signatureSee all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk Live! The students of William & Mary’s “Introduction to International Politics” course join the podcast to discuss drug boats; the UN-approved peace plan for Gaza; an AI arms race; the intersection of IR theory and policymaking; ending the war in Ukraine; overconfidence and fear in IR; whether IR students have to go to grad school; the ideal podcast co-host; our IR origin stories; Thanksgiving dinner picks; and Marcus takes food safety very seriouslySpecial thanks to William & Mary’s Jeff Herrick for audio support and to all the GOVT 204 students who participated in the show. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Recommended Thanksgiving Recipes:J. Kenji López-Alt. “Mayo-Roasted Thanksgiving Turkey with Gravy.” New York Times Cooking.J. Kenji López-Alt. “The Best Crispy Roast Potatoes Ever.” Serious Eats. See all Cheap Talk episodes

Strikes by the United States military on suspected drug boats in the Pacific; the legality of these strikes; why it might matter if the US is violating international law; building pressure on Venezuela; the US strategy (if there is one); the problems with wars on things; and Marcus has never had TofurkeyThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading:Lazaro Gamio, Carol Rosenberg, and Charlie Savage. 2025. “Tracking U.S. Military Killings in Boat Attacks.” New York Times. See all Cheap Talk episodes

Dick Cheney’s outsized foreign policy role in the George W. Bush administration; what President Trump is talking about when he talks about nuclear testing; the nuclear testing announcement as diplomatic leverage; US readiness to test; nuclear testing for deterrence; the downsides of exploding nuclear weapons in Nevada; and Marcus loves Election DayThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading/Watching:A House of Dynamite, streaming on NetflixNuclear Decisions Online GameJeffrey Lewis. 2018. The 2020 Commission Report On The North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against The U.S.: A Speculative Novel. Harper. Fail Safe, streaming on TubeNukeMap, a nuclear weapons effect simulator by Alex WellersteinSee all Cheap Talk episodes

Ceasefires are good; Trump’s personal stake in Middle East diplomacy; the implausibility of the AI apocalypse; the incremental ceding of human control over autonomous systems; plausible mechanisms for AI control of nuclear arsenals; misalignment, poisoning, and the manipulation of AI models; and Marcus discusses the meaning of consciousnessThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Further Reading:Alexandra Souly et al. 2025. “Poisoning Attacks on LLMs Require a Near-constant Number of Poison Samples.” Arxiv 2510.07192.“AI: What Could Go Wrong? With Geoffrey Hinton.” 2025. The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart.See all Cheap Talk episodes