Cheap Talk

Russia bails on the New START arms control treaty; Putin and prospect theory; the short and long term effects of the treaty suspension; why we have arms control treaties in the first place; overlapping international agreements; taking stock of Russia’s invasion one year in; European security transformed; the relevance of nuclear risk and nuclear deterrence today; and Marcus embraces conspiracy theoriesSend us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at [email protected] or leave us a voice messageFurther listening:On the nuclear taboo: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Outside the Bounds of Reasonable Behavior.” Season 1, Episode 3.On international institutions: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Our Expectations Are Too High.” Season 1, Episode 4.See all Cheap Talk episodes

We’re on Apple Podcasts and Spotify; an excellent book is on sale; the Last of Us is not a zombie show; China threatens a balloon response; we are seeing more flying objects; risk reduction and diplomacy between the United States and China; President Biden visits Kyiv; and Marcus explains the role of aliens in political science theoryWhat should we talk about in future episodes? Let us know at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk or [email protected] reading:Now on sale! Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732) Zack Sharf. 2023. ‘The Last of Us’ Crew Was ‘Banned’ From Saying Zombie on Set: ‘We Weren’t Allowed to Say the Z Word.’ Variety. (https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/the-last-of-us-crew-banned-saying-zombie-set-1235522423/)Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall. 2008. “Sovereignty and the UFO.” Political Theory 36(4): 607–633. (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0090591708317902)

Cheap Talk’s very special balloon-themed episode: China’s spy balloon; the effect on diplomacy when spying becomes public; the intelligence value of spy balloons; why the US failed to deploy its giant balloon net; the risk of balloon-related escalation; the trajectory of the US-China relationship; and Marcus explains his criteria for riding in flying objects Recommended Valentine's Day gifts for loved ones or enemies:Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes (https://www.amazon.com/Face-Face-Diplomacy-Marcus-Holmes-ebook/dp/B07952GT58/)Give us feedback or ask a question for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return from its winter hiatus: Evaluating the lasting impact of the COVID pandemic (if any) on international affairs; preparedness for the next pandemic; COVID and domestic politics; the supply chain and decoupling from China; domestic protests in China; the nonissue of vaccine diplomacy; and Marcus misattributes an often misinterpreted quoteLeave feedback or ask a question for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalkFurther ReadingW. Joseph Campbell. 2011. “‘Too early to say’: Zhou was speaking about 1968, not 1789.” Media Myth Alert. https://mediamythalert.com/2011/06/14/too-early-to-say-zhou-was-speaking-about-1968-not-1789/See all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk ends the semester with a mailbag episode: State dinners; celebrities and national interest; AI and international relations; sports diplomacy and the World Cup; President Biden’s willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin; and Marcus admits he doesn’t like soccerThanks to all those who contributed questions. Leave a message for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalkLooking for a holiday gift for the international affairs nerd in your life? We humbly suggest the following:Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (Coming out on December 22!) (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes (https://www.amazon.com/Face-Face-Diplomacy-Marcus-Holmes-ebook/dp/B07952GT58/)AI Links:ChatGPT (https://chat.openai.com)Kelsey Piper. Aug. 13, 2020. “GPT-3, explained: This new language AI is uncanny, funny — and a big deal.” Vox.com (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21355768/gpt-3-ai-openai-turing-test-language)Ethan Mollick. Dec. 8, 2022. “Four Paths to the Revelation.” One Useful Thing Substack. (https://oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/four-paths-to-the-revelation)Movie and TV Recommendations:Welcome to Wrexham (Streaming on Hulu)Slash/Back (Streaming on AMC+)The Bureau (Streaming on AMC+)Dispatches from Elsewhere (Streaming on AMC+)Pepsi, Where’s My Jet? (Streaming on Netflix)We’ll be back with new episodes in late January. Subscribe now in your podcast player of choice so you don’t miss anything. Just enter this custom URL: http://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk?format=rss - In Apple Podcasts, tap “Library” on the bottom row, tap “Edit” in the upper-right corner, and choose “Add a Show by URL...” - In Google Podcasts, tap the activity icon in the lower-right, tap “Subscriptions,” tap the “...” menu in the upper-right, and tap “Add by RSS feed.” - In Overcast, tap the “+” in the upper-right corner, then tap “Add URL.”Best wishes for a happy holiday and new year! We'll see you in 2023.

Garage door updates; the information and cyber war in Ukraine; academics in the press; the ethical implications of AI art; and Marcus discusses his turkey optionsAsk a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalkFurther ReadingOn Thanksgiving menus:“2022: Kenji on T-Day.” 2022. Special Sauce Podcast. https://www.thespecialsaucepodcast.com/podcast/special-sauce-2022-kenji-on-t-day/ (Quick summary of Kenji’s tips: - add soy sauce to your gravy, - use a small turkey, - spatchcock the turkey, - dry-brine the turkey or cover with mayo)Sunny Lee. 2020. “Celebrate the Sides With a Korean-American Banchan Thanksgiving.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/korean-american-thanksgiving-menuJ. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2020. “Crisp-Skinned Spatchcocked (Butterflied) Roast Turkey With Gravy Recipe.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/butterfiled-roast-turkey-with-gravy-recipe“Those Are Not Their Actual Faces.” Nov 21 2022. Cheap Talk Podcast. http://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk/2021/11/21/those-are-not-their-actual-facesOn Ukraine:“Matt Tait on Cybersecurity in Ukraine.” 2022. The Lawfare Podcast. https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-matt-tait-cybersecurity-ukraineMstyslav Chernov. 2022. “20 Days in Mariupol: The team that documented city’s agony.” Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dedeOn the Xi/Biden meeting (featuring an interview with Marcus Holmes at about 7:30):“US and China Meetings.” 14 Nov. 2022. BBC Newshour. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yfc9phms8w4John Mearsheimer’s interview with Isaac Chotinier:Isaac Chotinier. Nov 17 2022. “John Mearsheimer on Putin’s Ambitions After Nine Months of War.” New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

Cheap Talk returns from a COVID-induced hiatus: online prediction markets; already-obsolete election takes; US support for Ukraine with a new Congress; domestic politics and international affairs; remembering Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Russia’s retreat from Kherson; South Korea recovers a North Korean missile; and Marcus was anticipating a red wave Subscribe to Cheap Talk in the podcast app of your choice to be notified about new episodes. Just enter this custom URL: http://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk?format=rss - In Apple Podcasts, tap "Library" on the bottom row, tap "Edit" in the upper-right corner, and choose "Add a Show by URL..." - In Google Podcasts, tap the activity icon in the lower-right, tap "Subscriptions," tap the "..." menu in the upper-right, and tap "Add by RSS feed." - In Overcast, tap the "+" in the upper-right corner, then tap "Add URL." Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus agrees that countries shouldn’t use nuclear weapons Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Further reading: Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers. Free Press. Yuen Foong Khong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press.

Allegations of cheating in chess; how to go about cheating in chess (but you shouldn’t do it); a questionable analogy to face-to-face diplomacy; how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects international chess; looking into Putin’s soul; and Marcus shares his chess journey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Escalation management; sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline; signals of Russian resolve; what the end of the war in Ukraine looks like; backing Putin into a corner; US strategic ambiguity toward Russia and China; Iran protests; and Marcus confesses he is not a military strategy guy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The long-awaited season premiere of Cheap Talk: The origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; did Putin make a mistake; would Ukrainian nuclear weapons have prevented a war; who is deterring whom; and Marcus comes up with a final exam question Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at http://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

A Cheap Talk emergency podcast: Russia invades Ukraine and Marcus swears off predictions for a while

The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work

Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Further reading: “Virtual Reality Emerges in International Exchanges in Egypt – A Glimpse into the Future.” 2021. US Department of State Dipnote. https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/virtual-reality-emerges-in-international-exchanges-in-egypt-a-glimpse-into-the-future/ J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2020. “How to Cook a Spatchcocked Turkey: The Fastest, Easiest Thanksgiving Turkey.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/how-to-spatchcock-cook-turkey-thanksgiving-fast-easy-way-spatchcocked J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2018. “Herb-Roasted Turkey With Stuffing.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/the-food-lab-thanksgiving-special-herb-roasted-turkey-with-stuffing (On how to safely cook stuffing in the turkey.) J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2021. “The Importance of Resting Meat.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/how-to-have-juicy-meats-steaks-the-food-lab-the-importance-of-resting-grilling (“For a 12 to 15 pound turkey roasted at high temperatures, a rest of at least 20 to 30 minutes before carving is recommended.”)

The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear deal; and Marcus comes reasonably close to pronouncing Greta Thunberg’s name correctly Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Pronunciation guide: On the Cuyahoga river, see “Letters: Cuyahoga River.” 2009. All Things Considered. National Public Radio. (https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105828999) On Greta Thunberg, see “Greta Thunberg Wins Alternative Nobel.” 2019. Bloomberg QuickTake. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUJhi6D6kJk)

Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy. Further reading: John J. Mearsheimer. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics.” Foreign Affairs. Matthew Kroenig. 2018. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters. Oxford University Press. Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The US commitment to defend Taiwan; signaling resolve while maintaining strategic ambiguity; things are dangerous out there; the effect of US public opinion on US foreign policy; a hint for those writing policy memos for class; the external validity of survey experiments in political science; COVID vaccine diplomacy and international influence; and Marcus claims he’s more of a craps player than a blackjack player Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The militarization of US foreign policy; getting diplomats and intelligence officers out of the embassy; the domestic politics of foreign policy funding; showing results from diplomacy; soft power approaches; and Marcus thinks the answer is more diplomacy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk.

The gap between academia and policy; where policy beliefs come from; how we would know if there were a gap; policymakers are busy people; less methodological sophistication is not the answer; science communication is important; and Marcus mentions offhandedly that he frequently gets invited to the State Department Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Pure theorizing versus applied research; positivist and non-positivist approaches in international relations; international relations is what the field says it is; the relevance of the international relations paradigms; a defense of methodological pluralism; and Marcus reads a quote from Kenneth Waltz several times Further reading: David A. Lake. 2011. “Why ‘isms’ Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, and Academic Sects as Impediments to Understanding and Progress.” International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 465–480. John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. 2013. “Leaving Theory Behind: Why Simplistic Hypothesis Testing is Bad for International Relations.” European Journal of International Relations 19(3): 427–457.

Judging the US-Russia summit; the risks of failed summit diplomacy; AUKUS; countering China versus nonproliferation policy; nuclear submarines; the role of precedent and norms in international relations; and Marcus makes a note in his Google calendar

Cheap Talk makes its triumphant return for season 2: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan; reputations for resolve in international relations; foreign policy as a partisan issue; the legacy of 9/11; and Marcus didn’t know what to do, so he went to class

Taking diplomacy seriously; the Cold War ends with a fizzle; summit diplomacy; Jimmy Carter saves the day; and Marcus recommends an excellent article in International Studies Quarterly.Further reading:Marcus Holmes and Keren Yarhi-Milo. 2017. “The Psychological Logic of Peace Summits: How Empathy Shapes Outcomes of Diplomatic Negotiations.” International Studies Quarterly 61(1): 107–122.Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2016. “The negotiation calculus: Why parties to civil conflict refuse to talk.” International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 38–46.Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Continuity of government; interpreting foreign policy signals in a crisis; decision-making in the loss domain; benefiting from chaos; and Marcus worries about the lingering effects of COVID

Whether international security institutions matter; power politics; using institutions to avoid taking action; constraining versus screening; and Marcus feels bad for institutions sometimes

The puzzle of nuclear non-use; strategic calculations versus the nuclear taboo; and Marcus uses the word deontological in a sentence

Rationalism versus political psychology; whether the bargaining model is useful; the role of individuals in IR; and Marcus has a couple more things to say

The COVID-19 pandemic, institutions, China, signposts to a post-pandemic future, and Marcus predicts a new world order