Chain Reaction

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Nicholas Danforth, a Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, about the current state of U.S.-Turkish relations during the Biden administration. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The air war against the Islamic State was critical to the territorial defeat of the group's territorial caliphate and a key enabler of American partner operation led ground combat. To discuss the air war, Aaron spoke this week with Stacie L. Pettyjohn, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Becca Wasser, a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, about their recent multi-authored book, The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has launched a global posture review, shortly after taking office. To discuss the process and the likely implications for U.S. posture in the Central Command area of operation, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a Fellow at the Center for New American Security's Defense Program and Co-Lead, The Gaming Lab. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Great power competition is likely to outlast the Trump presidency. To discuss the Biden Administration’s national security priorities and the role that special forces are likely to play, Aaron speaks with Tim Ball, a special forces officer and a fellow in FPRI’s National Security Program. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is a human tragedy, but also provides observers the opportunity to monitor modern conflict and think closely about lessons for Western militaries. To discuss the on-going conflict and what it may mean for future combat, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, Jack Watling, Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at King's College, London.Related Reading:The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In - War on the Rocks https://bit.ly/31xD9CEThe Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Giving Us a Glimpse into the Future of War - RUSI https://bit.ly/35jJLFK Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

A few weeks ago, an AI algorithm beat a human pilot in a series of simulated dogfights, as part of the AlphaDogfight challenge to “demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight." The simulation touched off debate about the future of air combat. To discuss this, Aaron spoke this week with "Mule", an F-15E Weapons Systems Officer and Ryan "Stinger" Fishel, a F-15E pilot, about the simulation and the future of air combat. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Events in Syria have brought American and Russian militaries into close contact. In recent weeks, a video emerged showing Russian helicopters flying low over an American patrol, and it was later revealed that US soldiers were injured when a Russian vehicle rammed an American vehicle. To discuss ground deconfliction, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, FPRI Black Sea Fellow and a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the Army War College.Stay tuned for the launch of FPRI’s upcoming book Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned on September 14th. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to begin negotiations to normalize relations, so long as Prime Minister Netanyahu suspends his plans to annex the West Bank. The move was widely welcomed as beneficial for regional stability, but also raised questions about whether it was sustainable. To discuss the agreement, Aaron spoke with Dr. Joshua Krasna, a senior fellow at FPRI and a professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What is the latest with Turkey's F-35? To get the latest, Aaron speaks this week with Valerie Insinna, Air Warfare Reporter at Defense News, about the latest with Turkey and the F-35. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this cross-over podcast with Arms Control Wonk, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents.https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to send armed forces across the border with Libya, following Turkey's successful ousting of Khalifa Haftar from territory his militia held in the western part of the country. The flashpoint is Sirte, where Turkish-backed forces are deployed and possibly preparing to assault, and which Sisi has pledged to defend. To discuss the Egyptian view of the conflict in Libya, Aaron speaks with Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The United States Treasury will soon announce the first round of sanctions associated with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is intended to punish the regime for its killing of civilians and aims to help broker dialogue to end the conflict. To discuss the sanctions, and whether they may do more harm than good, Aaron spoke with Basma Alloush, a policy and advocacy advisor at the Norweigan Refugee Council, and Alex Simon, the director of the Syria Program with Synaps. This podcast expands upon Basma and Alex's recent article on the same subject for War on the Rocks.Read the article here: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/will-more-syria-sanctions-hurt-the-very-civilians-they-aim-to-protect/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this week's episode, Aaron speaks with two of the three authors of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement, Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside. The discussion touched on the period after the killing of Zarqawi, but before the group's take over of Mosul. For interested listeners, Haroro and Craig spoke in more depth about other aspects of the book on the Modern War Institute Podcast and on FDD's Long War Journal Podcast.Modern War Institute Podcast : https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-islamic-state-happened/FDD's Long War Journal Podcast: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/generation-jihad-ep-8-the-islamic-states-foundational-texts.phpNote: The audio quality of parts of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Lebanon finds itself in a financial crisis, brought about by years of economic mismanagement and political dysfunction. The economic fall-out from a relatively good response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these negative trends, raising questions about the trajectory and strength of on-going protests about social and economic inequality. To discuss the latest events in Lebanon, Aaron speaks this week with Joyce Karam, the Washington correspondent for the National. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Inna Rudolf, the author of "The Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces after the Assassination of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis," the third chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Popular Mobilization Forces, the role of the now-deceased Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis within the organization, the Iranian influence over the PMF, and policy options to consider in the near future.*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Ben Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour, the authors of "Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics," the first chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Sadrist movement, its place in Iraqi politics, how it balances relations with Iran and the United States, and where it may be headed in the near future. Read the full report here: shorturl.at/myzN7*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at Naval PostGraduate School and a Fox Fellow at FPRI, about Iran's response to the COVID-19 virus, its regional priorities, and what the future may entail for competition with the United States. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Patriot missile system is back in the news, with the Turkish request for two Patriot batteries and the introduction of the system into Iraq to protect U.S. forces from Iranian missile attack. To discuss the details of Patriot deployments, Aaron spoke with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In crossover podcast with two scholars from FPRI's Eurasia program, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the US Army War College and a Black Sea fellow at FPRI and Nikolas Gvosdev, the Captain Jerome E. Levy Chair in Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College and a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about the crisis in Idlib. The conversation focused on the Turkish--Russian conflict and Moscow's strategy to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and the potential implications for the United States and Europe. Read "Idlib: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth" here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/idlib-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Clint Watts, a distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, about Russian and Iranian disinformation efforts surrounding the 2020 election. The episode touched on many of the articles published on the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) project, which analyzes Russian and Iranian propaganda. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Russian -- Turkish relationship is under strain, after events in Syria have challenged a series of ceasefire agreements the two sides signed to try and jointly manage the civil war. Do tensions in Syria signal an end of Turkish -- Russian cooperation, or is the relationship more complicated than a single crisis? To discuss this issue, Aaron spoke this week with Dimitar Bechev, a research fellow at the center for Eurasian and East European Studies and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.Please note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The conflict in Libya has prompted more aggressive external intervention, beginning with the Russian decision to send mercenaries to give support to Khalifa Hiftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Turkish decision to send its own forces, along with Syrian rebels, to augment its preferred actor, the Government of National Accord (GNA). Amidst two summits, one in Moscow and the second in Berlin, Aaron speaks this week with Yousuf Eltagouri, a FPRI contributor who works on stabilization programming in the Middle East and North Africa at DT Global, about events in Libya and the role of external actors. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After tensions with Iran escalated, American military operations in Iraq have been curtailed over concerns about possible attacks on U.S. soldiers. To discuss the threat to the U.S. military, Aaron spoke with Ian Rice, a retired US Army Colonel with experience in Iraq about the role of Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State -- and the threat they may now pose for U.S. interest. In a second interview, Aaron also spoke FPRI's Dr. Mike Noonan to drill down into the legal authorities for the targeted killing and the authorities governing American military force in the country. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After a period of calm following the territorial defeat of the Islamic State, Iraq has faced unprecedented protests, aimed at unseating the current ruling class and expressing anger at corruption and poor economic management. To discuss the protests, Aaron spoke with Maya Gebeily, the Baghdad correspondent for Agence France Presse. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Be sure to check out the first part of this podcast on the EU perspective with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and NATO. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience. During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and Syria.Please check out the second part of this show "The NATO Summit: The U.S. Perspective" Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has upended the U.S. counter-ISIS mission and forced a hasty American withdrawal. To discuss the recent events, and what they mean for the U.S.--Turkish relationship, Aaron spoke with Nick Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In response to Iranian provocations, the United States has sent forces back to the Middle East. To discuss the American deployments, and the defense of Saudi Arabia, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an FPRI Senior Fellow. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Israelis head to the polls, again, on September 17th to decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud Party, and his many challengers. To discuss the state of the race, Aaron speaks with Michael Koplow, the policy director at the Israel Policy Forum. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Assad regime launched a major offensive to recapture Khan Sheykun, a formerly opposition held town, and is now threatening to expand the campaign and continue his march north. To discuss the current offensive, Aaron spoke with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking, where she focuses on Syria. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After Iran seized a British tanker in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom surged naval forces to escort tankers, and are now joining an on-going American effort to escort ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, about the British policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.Related Materials: - Whether It Likes It or Not, Europe Is Being Pulled Into America's Iran Policy: http://bit.ly/2YAjgLMCheck out these episodes of the Middle East Brief for more on Iran: - Iran’s Non-State Clients and Regional Strategyhttp://bit.ly/2Wacz1O- Sabotage in Fujairah: Iran and Escalation Dynamics in The Persian Gulfhttp://bit.ly/2YB02AW Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the state of Israeli-Jordanian relations, the future of the peace treaty, and the role of the Trump administration. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region. Related Materials: Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcqTriple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash. Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion" http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war. Read More: Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2GalcywTrump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.Related Links: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.htmlhttps://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.Related links: 1. The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK2. Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y3. 'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms: http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK64. U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe