Chain Reaction

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion, Maria Romanenko shares her experience fleeing Ukraine and reflects on what the war means, both personally and broadly.Link: Fundraiser for building a museum in the village of Yahidne to showcase Russia’s war crimes there. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What do the statistics and other indicators coming out of Russia these days actually mean, and which ones should we actually be paying attention to? Chris Miller and Andras Toth-Czifra stop by to discuss. Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief newsletter. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Faced with a possible defeat in Ukraine, will Russia survive until 2084? FPRI Senior Fellow Philip Wasielewski and Maia Otarashvili, the Deputy Director of FPRI's Eurasia program discuss the future of Russia, from internal ethnic and leadership struggles to its sphere of influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus as Chinese and Turkish power rises in the region.Read Philip Wasielewski's report "Will Russia Survive Until 2084?"This episode was recorded live on Zoom on January 31, 2023. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

How is Russia's economy doing as we start 2023? And how is mobilization going - if it is even possible? Nick Trickett joins to discuss. Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What has the war actually been like on the ground? How have communities, and the Ukrainian government reacted? Kirill, a Kyiv resident and open source conflict researcher, joins to share his experience.Support Vostok SOS: https://vostok-sos.org/en/i-wanna-help/rekvizyty-dlia-hroshovoho-perekazu/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

As we drop by Paris, what is president Macron's angle, diplomatically or otherwise, in the Ukraine War? And how do populists on both the right and left play in?This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on November 23, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What do Russians actually think about the war in Ukraine? How are sanctions being felt locally? And what can we learn - or not - from polls conducted in Russia's current political climate. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What spurred Italy's right wing populist wave? And what does it mean for EU policy? Federico Santi joins Aaron to discuss.This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 20, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

How did Hungary stray from the liberal democratic path? What does that mean in practice? And what explains its contrarian position on Russia within the EU? Andras Toth-Czifra and Marta Pardavi join Aaron to discuss all things Hungary.This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 3, 2022. Related reading: https://orban.media/ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this Bear Market Brief crossover episode, FPRI Templeton Fellow Phil Wasielewski joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to provide an update on the war and take a step back. What is the broader strategic picture and what does it mean for Putin and Russia? Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

We've looked how the war in Ukraine has impacted politics in several countries, but what about the EU as a whole? Charles Lichfield joins to discuss.This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on September 14, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What exactly motivates Turkey's mercurial leader? On this episode, Sibel Oktay joins to discuss what's on Erdogan's mind these days and his angle on Ukraine, NATO, and more. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Join us as we cover all three Baltic States in (about) one hour. Guests Dr. Indra Ekmanis and Martynas Smitas share their views and some nuances on the current political and security juncture, as well as where the local Russian minority fits into all this.The conversation with Indra Ekmanis was recorded on June 28 and July 3, 2022, and the conversation with Martynas Smitas was recorded on July 1, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Finland has a long border and similarly long history with Russia. How does the war in Ukraine change its defense and security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum and Minna Alander discuss Finland's security calculus.This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on June 21, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Why and how did Sweden abandon centuries of neutrality, and where does it fit in the European security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Oscar Jonsson about Sweden's NATO ambitions and the country's current political crisis. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After abandoning a policy of neutrality, Sweden was expected to rapidly join NATO in time for the June 28 summit in Madrid. Instead, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, has blocked Sweden's accession, demanding a series of concessions ranging from support for Turkish counter terror operations to extraditing Swedish citizens of Kurdish origin. To discuss this issue, Aaron is joined by Dr. Paul Levin, the Director of Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

How has the war in Ukraine changed Poland's politics, security, and even society? And what about Warsaw's relationship with Brussels?This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Anna Wojcik and Wojciech Przybylski about Poland's past, present, and future in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 25, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has bogged down, forcing President Vladimir Putin to wrestle with a series of questions about how to continue the invasion. The United States and its European Allies have pledged open-ended military support for Ukraine, allowing President Zelensky to replace equipment, and retain critical capabilities to defend the country. To discuss the latest developments in the war, Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, join moderator Aaron Stein. This discussion was recorded live on Zoom on May 12, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is pleased to introduce a special Chain Reaction podcast series: The Continent.The Continent explores how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe's politics and security. Host Aaron Schwartzbaum will "visit" a country on each episode, learning about key dynamics and trends from local experts. In the first episode Aaron speaks with Marcel Dirsus and Jana Puglierin about Germany's response to the war in Ukraine. Just how important is this political moment for Germany? What does it mean for Germany to boost its military potential — and how might it use it?This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 11, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Russia is facing a manpower shortage and has a series of hard political choices to make, as it seeks to continue its invasion of Ukraine. To discuss this issue, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA about the war, Russian options to escalate, and Putin's May 9th speech. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Since Trump’s infamous call for a border wall and vague, fear-mongering threats of a “caravan of migrants'', security along the US-Mexico border has become a topic of increasing interest for the average American. How much of a security concern does migration from South and Central America pose, if any, to the US? And how can the US address the root causes forcing this mass migration in a sustainable and non-destructive way? Guest host Clint Watts will talk to Delphine Schrank, freelance journalist and former Reuters Latin American Chief Correspondent based in Mexico City. Delphine has traveled through Central America and Mexico with several migrant caravans. She and Clint will discuss the migrant experience traveling with a caravan and the root causes spurring these migrations. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The FY2023 Department of Defense budget has dropped and it is packed full of insights. To talk about the budget and what it means for the future of the Air Force and Navy, Aaron speaks with Valerie Insinna, the Air Force and Pentagon reporter for Breaking Defense. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Before many African migrants even see Europe, they are captured and imprisoned in migrant detention camps in Libya. These detention centers, while run by Libyan militias, were funded and enabled to be run by the European Union.In this episode, Clint speaks with Ian Urbina, director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, a nonprofit journalism initiative exploring lawlessness on the high seas, who recently published a piece in the New Yorker “The Secretive Prisons That Keep Migrants Out of Europe”. He uncovered human rights abuses taking place in migrant detention camps in Libya and the international systems enabling the continued operation of these prisons. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The air war over Ukraine is now a month old. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Dr. Aaron Stein speaks with Dr. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council with new American engagement initiative, about the air war and the role defenses have played in frustrating Moscow's campaign. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Syrian Civil War led to likely the most prominent migration crisis in modern history. In 2015, the European Union was forced to reckon with a surge of millions of migrants fleeing devastation and danger in Syria. Foreign Policy Research Institute Distinguished Fellow Clint Watts talks with Jessica Bither, senior expert on migration at the Bosch Foundation. Jessica’s expertise lies in the intersection of technology and migration and she has extensively studied European migration patterns. They will discuss the security implications of the 2015 migration crisis and how this affected current attitudes and policy towards migrants in the European Union. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Mike "Pako" Benitez, a retiring active-duty officer with over 25 years of service in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, about the history of no fly zones, the challenges in setting one up, and the risk of inadvertent escalation. Mike wrote a recent article with Mike “Starbaby” Pietrucha about the topic and is the editor of the Merge newsletter.Related reading: The Dangerous Allure of the No Fly Zone - Mike Benitez & Mike Pietrucha - War on the Rocks Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

After seven days of conflict, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made clear gains, but has also suffered from obvious deficiencies. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks again with Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, about the trajectory of the war, Russian challenges, and the future of the conflict.This conversation was recorded on March 3, 2022. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

International measures to slow climate change have been too little and too late, and the consequences of global inaction increasingly affect daily life here in the US. Americans are already being forced to move due to climate related disaster.In this episode, Clint talks to Jesse Keenan, Associate Professor of Real Estate at Tulane University in New Orleans. They discuss how climate change is specifically affecting the US and what Americans should - and should not - be worried about in the near future as the planet warms. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In today's Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, the Russia Studies Director at CNA, about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and the risk of "spillage" beyond the border.Related reading: "Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff with the West" - War on the Rocks "Moscow's Compellence Strategy" - Foreign Policy Research Institute Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Excessive heat. Heavier rains. Natural disasters are growing in number and severity. Devastation from climate change is already a reality across much of the world and is prompting those in the regions most vulnerable to warming temperatures to ask themselves the question: do I stay or do I go? In this episode, Clint talks with Dr. Jola Ajibade, Assistant Professor of Geography at Portland State University about how different global communities are migrating or adapting to climate change. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine is complete, raising the risk of an imminent invasion. To discuss the latest, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI senior fellow, about Moscow's force posture and potential military scenarios. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron spoke with Anna Nadibaidze about her new report "Russian Perceptions of Military AI, Automation, and Autonomy." The conversation touched on Russian views of Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, and the ethical use of these types of weapons. The report is available for download on www.fpri.org Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

​​What does a warming planet mean for our national security? In this special segment, Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks to three experts on the impacts of climate change to US national security in a special Chain Reaction podcast series.In late January, President Biden signed an executive order placing the climate crisis at the center of U.S. foreign policy and national security. Climate change is an unavoidable problem for everyone, but not every country will suffer the same ecological, social, political and military effects as our planet warms. Which places around the world will suffer the most traumatic consequences from extreme weather, rising seas and hotter temperatures? FPRI Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks with John Conger, senior advisor to the Council on Strategic Risk and Senior U.S. Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security to help answer these questions and provide an overview of the global threat of climate change and its implications on national security. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Michael Kofman, who serves as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, about the latest developments in Ukraine. The discussion centered on Russia's potential use of force and why the Kremlin may conclude that the actual costs of an invasion are lower than is commonly assumed. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Dr. Laura Grego, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy at MIT, about Russia's November 15 test of a ground-based anti-satellite weapon, the challenges of space debris, and potential options to limit such tests in the future. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's show, Aaron speak with Becca Wasser, a fellow in the defense program and co-lead of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security, about her recent article for War on the Rocks about the next National Defense Strategy, integrated deterrence, and the issues Washington should be considering as it plans for strategic competition with peer competitors. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Susannah Patton, a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, about the recent submarine agreement. For listeners, check out Susannah's latest report, Correcting the Course: How the Biden Administration can Compete for Influence in the Indo-Pacific. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment. In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond. This week, Jan Matti Dollbaum, Morvan Lallouet, Ben Noble, authors of the book "Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?" and Eilish Hart, editor of BMB Ukraine, join to discuss all things Alexei Navalny. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment. In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond. This week, Felix Light stops by to discuss Russia's upcoming Duma elections, what they mean, who's involved, and what to expect. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

To discuss recent events in Ukraine, Aaron speaks this week with Rob Lee, a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about his recent report, Russia's Coercive Diplomacy. The conversation explores Rob's research about Russia's military build up around Ukraine and what that could signal for Russian coercive signaling during Zapad 2021. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Iranian government is accused of using a loitering munition to strike the tanker Mercer Street, killing two crew members. The attack is the latest incident at sea involving the Iranians and international shipping. To discuss Iranian strategy in the Persian Gulf, Aaron speaks with Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, about escalation dynamics and Iranian strategy. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Chris Dougherty, senior fellow for defense at CNAS and the co-lead of the CNAS gaming lab, about a recent article he wrote for War on the Rocks, Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy's Strategic Bankruptcy. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond. This week Aaron speaks with Fabian Burkhardt, a research fellow at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, about Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin, his agenda, and what his role means for governance in Russia. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

President Biden just finished a three-country trip, where he met with world leaders in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and in Switzerland. The main focus of the trip was to reinvigorate U.S. alliances in Europe and with NATO. To discuss the trip, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, the deputy director and a senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week we’d like to introduce a special series recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment. In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond. This week Aaron is joined by Isabel Linzer, a research analyst on technology and democracy at Freedom House, and Nick Trickett, a specialist on Russia’s political economy and the author of the Russia section of Freedom Houses’ Nations in Transit report, to discuss the state of Russian democracy, as well as Russia’s electoral and internet freedom. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Mike Benitez, a U.S. military officer and creator of the Merge newsletter, about the challenges of finding mobile rocket launchers in an urban environment.The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Aaron spoke with Steven Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about his new book, The Rise of Digital Repression: How Technology is Reshaping Power, Politics, and Resistance (Oxford University Press, 2021). Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. This week Aaron chats with Robert Hamilton and Anna Mikulska, authors of FPRI's latest report "Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West '' about the major drivers of the bilateral relationship and its likely future trajectory.Read the report here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/04/cooperation-competition-and-compartmentalization-russian-turkish-relations-and-their-implications-for-the-west/The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Army War College, U.S. Army, or the Department of Defense. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Mule about the lessons that the United States should from the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operations in Syria. Mule is preparing to deploy to Jordan to command an operational support squadron.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this week's episode, Dr. Thomas Lynch joins the show to discuss his latest book, Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, which includes a series of essays about Great Power Competition and U.S. national security policy. The podcast discussed themes from the essays and U.S. policy under both President Trump and President Biden.The book is available for free on the National Defense University Website. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe