Brussels Sprouts

Under the Trump administration, U.S. support for Ukraine is no longer guaranteed. President Trump's pause on aid and intelligence to Ukraine in March may have been brief, but it sent a clear message to Europe and Ukraine that the U.S. may no longer be a reliable partner for Ukraine. A reduction or end to U.S. support for Ukraine could have a significant impact on the conflict dynamics in Ukraine and present a challenge for European allies as to whether they can step up and fill the gap. Celeste Wallander joins the podcast to provide a firsthand account of the evolution of U.S. assistance to Ukraine and to discuss how a united Europe can help Kyiv keep up the fight. Celeste Wallander was the assistant secretary of defense for International Security Affairs and is a adjunct senior fellow at CNAS.

On April 2nd, President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs across the globe – with only a handful of countries left untouched. The EU was hit with tariffs of 20% and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised a ‘united response’ and stated a willingness to retaliate. As the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, any actions taken by the EU in response to the tariffs could have a significant impact on both sides of the Atlantic. To help us understand where we go from here, we are pleased to welcome Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke. Dan Mullaney is the former assistant U.S. trade representative for Europe and the Middle East and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Tobias Gehrke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations whose research covers geoeconomics and European Economic Strategy.

Turkish democracy has come under fresh assault as the Erdoğan government arrested the leader of Turkey's largest opposition party and the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and issued arrest warrants for more than 100 others. Concurrent with Turkey’s domestic turmoil, Ankara is looking to play a more prominent geopolitical role, both in Syria and in Europe, especially as the US pulls back from the European theater. Soner Çağaptay and Aslı Aydıntasbas join Brussels Sprouts this week to discuss these developments. Aslı Aydıntaşbaş is a visiting fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings. Soner Çağaptay is the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The last two decades have marked a revolution in economic warfare. As the United States has increasingly sought to weaponize the global economy against its adversaries, the world has become fractured into competing blocks, resulting in an economic arms race among major powers. This is the argument made by Eddie Fishman in his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare. The book tells the story of how the US wielded its economic tools, ranging from sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions, and oil price caps, to address the pressing global security challenges stemming from Iran, Russia, and China. It’s the story of how the world economy became a new frontier of warfare. This week, we’re pleased to welcome Edward Fishman to discuss his new book and how it informs the issues facing us today. Edward Fishman is an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, senior research scholar for the Center for Global Energy Policy, and an adjunct professor of international and global affairs at Columbia University

Last month, the Trump administration carried out a large-scale firing of senior military leaders, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief of Naval operations, the vice chief of staff of the Air Force, and the top military lawyers from the Army, Navy, and Air Force. While expected, these moves were nonetheless largely unprecedented, upending longstanding bipartisan and civil-military norms around the continuity of military leadership across political transitions to a new administration. Kori Schake and Erica Frantz join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode to shed light on what the Trump administration’s dismissals of military leaders might mean for the state of U.S. civil-military relations, the health of U.S. democracy, and the conduct of U.S. foreign policy, Kori Schake is a Senior Fellow and the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Erica Frantz is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University and a co-author of The Origins of Elected Strongmen.

This week, the Trump administration announced the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. Reports have emerged that Trump administration officials have held secret discussions with some of Zelensky's political opponents. On Thursday, Trump told reporters he would consider only defending those allies who spend enough on defense. These events, along with everything that has transpired since U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth gave his speech to NATO in February, have catalyzed an unprecedented European response as allies are no longer confident that the US will remain a reliable partner moving forward. Allies are ramping up their defense spending; in an emergency meeting in Brussels yesterday, the EU agreed to rearm Europe by mobilizing 800 billion euros in defense spending. This jump in spending is unprecedented for the EU, with 2024 spending hitting a previous record high of 326 billion to rearm. We're very pleased to have Shashank Joshi and Camille Grand on Brussels Sprouts to discuss what all this means. Shashank Joshi is the Economist’s Defense Editor. Camille Grand is a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Last Sunday, Germany held parliamentary elections that are set to usher in a new political era for the country. The far-right Alternative for Germany had its best electoral result ever, capturing 20% of the vote and finishing as the second-largest party in the Bundestag. This domestic shift is taking place against the backdrop of massive turmoil within Europe and the transatlantic relationship, spurred by the Trump administration’s antagonism towards its allies and rapprochement with Russia. This episode of Brussels Sprouts, where we analyze Germany’s election results, features Jeff Rathke and James Angelos. James Angelos is Germany news editor at POLITICO, having been based in Berlin for over a decade. Jeff Rathke is the president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

The Trump administration began negotiations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia last week, and its exclusion of both Kyiv and its European backers from the table cast doubt on the viability of any potential settlement. At the same time, it is far from certain that the Ukrainians can continue their war efforts without the United States’ support, even if Europe steps up its support in the months ahead. This episode of Brussels Sprouts, recorded on the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is joined by Gustav Gressel and Franz-Stephan Gady. Franz-Stefan Gady is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Defense Program at CNAS and the founder of Gady Consulting. Gustav Gressel is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy at the National Defense Academy in Vienna.

In Munich and Brussels last week, the Trump administration signaled a seismic shift in U.S. policy toward its European allies. Since World War II, the United States has been the primary security guarantor of Europe. Yet recent remarks from President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have questioned this status quo. This week, Brussels Sprouts hosted a special live edition of the podcast, discussing what happens next in the U.S.-Europe relationship with Emma Ashford, senior fellow in the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Stephen Wertheim is a Senior Fellow with the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on the history of U.S. foreign policy and contemporary American strategy and diplomacy. Emma Ashford is a Senior Fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center. Her research focuses on U.S. foreign policy, international security, and global energy markets.

In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile, tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitatively built up its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, there have been significant breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, including for military applications. As a result of these two trends, it is now important to understand and think through the challenges at the AI nuclear nexus, including understanding what our adversaries, China and Russia, are doing in this space. To discuss this and more, Jacob Stokes and Colin Kahl join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend for a special episode of Brussels Sprouts celebrating the launch of a new CNAS report, Averting AI Armageddon: US-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence. Colin Kahl is the Stephen C. Házy senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. During the Biden administration, he served as undersecretary of defense for policy. Jacob Stokes is a senior fellow and deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS.

The first few weeks of the second Trump administration have seen a flurry of executive orders, tariffs imposed (or threatened) on allies and adversaries alike, and bold statements about world affairs. Trump’s remarks about Greenland, including his refusal to rule out taking the Danish territory by force, have been some of his most provocative and Europe is reeling from this abrupt change in approach. On this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts, Steve Erlanger and Mij Rahman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss Trump, tariffs, European defense spending, and Ukraine. Steve Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times, where he covers Europe and transatlantic relations. Mij Rahman is the Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group.

For more than 100 years, the continent of Eurasia has played a central role in global geopolitics. In the 20th century, numerous authoritarian powers from Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II to the Soviet Union aimed for primacy through control of this vast landmass and its resources. Today, command of Eurasia is once again essential to understanding a key geopolitical trend, the intensifying challenge of this axis of upheaval to the Western-led international order. On this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts, Hal Brands joins Andrea Kendall Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss all of this and the findings of his new book, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is also a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

On Monday, January 20th, Donald Trump took office as the 47th president of the United States. Now in his second term after a four-year hiatus, his inauguration heralds a new era for both the United States and the world. To look at Trump's vision both at home and abroad, Robert Kagan joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Robert Kagan is the Stephen & Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings and a contributing writer for The Atlantic.

In just a few days, Donald Trump returns to office with Canada in his sights. At the same time, it has been less than two weeks since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned. With an election expected in Canada the first half of the year - one that heralds a change of government - 2025 promises to be disruptive on both sides of the border. To take a broader look at the state of the Canada-US relationship Sandra Aubé and Garry Keller join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Elizabeth Anderson on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Sandra Aubé is Vice President for Federal Affairs at TACT, a communications and government relations firm. She has extensive experience in Canadian federal politics, having served as Chief of Staff to Canada’s Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and in the office of Prime Minister Trudeau. Garry Keller is a seasoned senior executive working with Canada’s political and business elite. He has served in several key roles in Canadian politics, including as Chief of Staff to Canada’s Foreign Minister, chief Parliamentary advisor to a Prime Minister and Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition.

As we welcome the new year, Brussels Sprouts is zooming out for a big picture view of what to expect in 2025. Top of mind is the impact of a second Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy, as many worldwide grapple with tough questions about the future of Washington’s global leadership. Ukraine also faces a pivotal year in its war with Russia, as speculation about potential negotiations continues to increase despite the lack of a clear path to ending the conflict. Finally, 2025 is likely to see new tests of transatlantic cohesion, as Europe navigates uncertainty amid shifting U.S. priorities. To help us unpack all of this and other key issues shaping global geopolitics this year, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan and Benedikt Franke join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Daniel Kurtz-Phelan is Editor of Foreign Affairs and holds the Peter G. Peterson Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. Benedikt Franke is Vice-Chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference.

After 54 years of brutal rule in Syria, the al-Assad family’s reign came to an end last week. Following 13 years of devastating civil war, which saw over a million refugees flee to Europe, and millions more internally displaced within Syria, the rebel victory brought both a sense of relief and celebration while also bringing a sense of trepidation and anxiety about what might come next. To analyze the events in Syria and discuss Europe's role in the formation of a new state, Asli Aydintasbas and Nathalie Tocci join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week's episode of Brussels Sprouts. Asli Aydintasbas is Visiting Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Nathalie Tocci is the Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali.

Earlier this week, France’s government collapsed following a successful no-confidence vote from left-wing and far-right lawmakers. This political crisis comes on the heels of the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition several weeks ago, leaving both of the European Union’s largest member states rudderless at a time when the bloc faces major challenges. Simultaneously, the EU is preparing for Donald Trump’s return to the White House next month and the possible consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine and threats to impose new tariffs. Finally, a brand-new European Commission has just taken office, only adding to all this uncertainty. To help us make sense of what we should expect in the months to come, Tara Varma and Liana Fix join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts. Tara Varma is a visiting fellow with the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.

More than 1000 days into the War in Ukraine, questions about continued support for the Ukrainian effort and the prospect of a negotiated settlement in the months to come have become all the more important. Trump has refused to say that he wants Ukraine to win the war and has pledged to end the war immediately. To help us make sense of this, Mike Kofman and Rob Lee join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military, Ukrainian armed forces, and Eurasian security issues. Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program and a leading expert on Russian military affairs.

For this special edition episode of Brussels Sprouts, Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend join forces with The Eurofile from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to reflect on the outcome of the recent United States presidential election with Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy. Listen in as they discuss what a second Trump term may mean for Europe, Ukraine, and United States relations with Russia. Max Bergmann is the director of the Stuart Center and the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS. Donatienne Ruy is the director of the Abshire-Inamori Leadership Academy and a Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at CSIS. More information on The Eurofile and the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program can be found here.

Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. A new report from CNAS analyzes how the relationship is shaping the region. Read it here: Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict? Most importantly, Russia and China seek to keep the United States, the West, and democracy out of the region, maintain stability, and pursue economic benefits. Though fissures exist, thus far the two countries have kept tensions from derailing the broader Russia-China relationship in Central Asia. To discuss these issues and more, Reid Standish and Alex Cooley join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts. Reid Standish is an Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent in Prague and author of the China In Eurasia briefing. Alex Cooley is the Claire Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University and an Academy Adjunct Faculty member at Chatham House.

Since the war in Ukraine began, the European Union has provided substantial military support to Kyiv. Yet years of underinvestment and a lack of coordination mean that Europe’s defense industrial base has struggled to keep up with demand. While there is a renewed sense of urgency to tackle this issue, in September, NATO’s outgoing secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg warned against EU defense efforts duplicating or competing with NATO, given scarce funding and personnel. What is the role of the EU when it comes to defense issues? Does the EU have a role in supporting the development of the defense industrial base? And how can EU and NATO efforts to support Ukraine be mutually supporting rather than cut across each other? To discuss these questions and more, Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss and Max Bergmann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts. Dr Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss is the Managing Director for Peace, Security and Defence at the European External Action Service. Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

This past Tuesday, Russia hosted a high-profile summit of the BRICS group in Kazan, Russia, demonstrating its growing determination to challenge the Western-led international order. As the group has expanded its membership during the past year, it has grown to encompass nearly half of the world’s population, lending it greater credibility as a platform for reflecting an increasingly multipolar world. Yet despite this expansion, the BRICS group continues to face internal divisions. Looking ahead, how should we interpret the evolving role of the BRICS, and what does this evolution mean for policymakers in the United States and Europe? To unpack all of this and more, Alexander Gabuev joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Alexander Gabuev is the Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. His research is focused on Russian foreign policy with particular focus on the impact of the war in Ukraine and the Sino-Russia relationship.

As the 2024 presidential elections draw nearer, it’s becoming increasingly urgent to understand the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy. This week, Brussels Sprouts continues its two-part series focusing on the election by shifting focus to the foreign policy that could emerge under a Trump-Vance administration. To discuss all of this, Michael Allen and James Carafano join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston on this week’s episode. Michael Allen is a managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, where he specializes in national security and foreign policy. James Carafano is Senior Counselor to the President and E.W. Richardson Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, where he works on national security and foreign policy challenges.

NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and increasing concerns from Europe about US commitments to transatlantic security. The role of NATO is as crucial now as it was 75 years ago but the security threats the alliance faces are evolving, and growing in complexity. To discuss these issues Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, Mark Newton, Maria Markowska, and John Deni joined Rebecca Moore for a live episode of Brussels Sprouts at Concordia College in Moorhead, Minnesota. Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt is the Norwegian Ambassador to the USA and was previously the Norwegian Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2023. Mark Newton is Minister Defence (Director USA) at the British Embassy in Washington DC. Maria Markowska is the First Counselor and Head of the Political Section at the Polish Embassy in Washington DC. Dr John Deni is a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute Dr Rebecca Moore is a professor of Political Science at Concordia College.

One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the Biden administration is facing increasing pressure to mediate and prevent an all-out war. Meanwhile, regional dynamics are becoming more intertwined with broader geopolitics, as highlighted by Israel’s recent strike near a Russian air base in Syria. The nexus between the war in Ukraine and the Middle East crisis has also raised alarms about shifts in global alliances and resources, including concerns that Moscow may be assisting Tehran’s nuclear program amidst their deepening ties. To discuss these pressing developments and what they mean for the future of the region, Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte join Andrea Kendall-Taylor on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Jonathan Lord is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a Senior Associate in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

On this special episode of Derisky Business, CNAS's economic security podcast, Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne Ambassador Neliupšienė recommends listeners tune in to the Trade-Off podcast about the people, politics, and power inside Europe’s trade policy, Trade-Off Podcast. Further Reading: EU Competitiveness: Looking Ahead (The Draghi Report) Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft from CNAS Subscribe to Derisky Business! Apple Podcasts Spotify Website

Later this month, both Moldova and Georgia will hold crucial elections with the potential to profoundly shape their futures. As Russia attempts to reassert dominance along its periphery amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s actions have triggered different geopolitical reorientations in different countries across the region. Moldova and Georgia illustrate this two-directional trend—while the Georgian government has signaled more alignment with Russia, Moldova is strengthening its ties with the West. However, these shifts may not be final, and the elections this October could either cement or reverse their current trajectories. Given these stakes, Russia has already taken steps to interfere in these elections, and could employ additional coercive tactics threatening stability along NATO’s eastern border in the future. Yet this moment also presents an opportunity for the United States and European Union— while the war in Ukraine continues, the transatlantic partners can take advantage of Russia’s present weakness to rid the region of corrosive Russian influence and more firmly anchor Moldova and Georgia in the good governance, democracy, and economic prosperity that are cornerstones of the Euro- Atlantic space. Laura Thornton is the senior director of global democracy programs at the McCain Institute. Prior to this, she served as senior vice president of democracy at the German Marshal Fund (GMF), and oversaw GMF’s transatlantic trusts. Denis Cenusa is the European Integration Program Director at the Moldovan think tank, Expert-Grup and a lecturer at the University of Giessen. Read the new report! Exploiting Russian Weakness: Leaning in to Support the Pro-Western Orientation of Moldova and Georgia

As the 2024 presidential elections approach, there is increasing speculation about the potential implications for U.S foreign policy. Today on Brussels Sprouts, we will have the first discussion in a two-part series on this topic, focusing first on what we might expect from a Harris-Walz administration. In many respects, Kamala Harris’s foreign policy platform largely signals continuity from the Biden administration, including strong support for Ukraine in its war against Russia and focus on the long-term geopolitical rivalry with China. Nevertheless, there may be some areas where Harris differs significantly from Biden, such as by recalibrating the U.S. position on the Israel-Hamas war. To decipher what a Harris doctrine in foreign policy might look like, we’re very pleased to have Amy Mackinnon and Joshua Keating on the podcast today. Amy Mackinnon is a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy. Joshua Keating is a senior correspondent at Vox, where he focuses on world news and foreign policy.

This week, CNAS hosted the book launch for The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within, a new book by Dr. Joseph Wright, Dr. Erica Frantz, and Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor. Moderated by Susan Glasser, this event discusses how democracies around the world are being weakened by the actions and efforts of their elected leaders, and how the rise of personalism in democratic politics has become the key culprit for democracy’s ills. Even in democratic systems, leaders are taking on outsized influence relative to the parties that support them to dismantle institutional checks on the executive, deepen political polarization, and weaken supporters’ commitment to democratic norms of behavior leading to democratic backsliding and collapse. Susan Glasser is a Staff Writer at The New Yorker, where she writes a weekly column on life in Washington, D.C. Prior to this, she served as the founding editor of POLITICO Magazine, the editor of POLITICO, and the editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy. Erica Frantz is an Associate Professor in Political Science at Michigan State University, where she focuses on authoritarian politics and the security and policy implications of autocratic rule. Joseph Wright is a Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University. There, he examines how international factors influence autocratic rule and democratization.

Earlier this year, the Biden administration revised its nuclear strategy, the nuclear employment guidance, which is updated approximately every four years. This time, however, the administration seems to have made some significant changes, placing greater emphasis on China given its growing nuclear capabilities, as well as directing the United States military to prepare for coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea. To help us understand the significance of these reported changes, James Acton and Jon Wolfsthal join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. James Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Jon Wolfsthal is the Director of Global Risk at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and an Adjunct Fellow with us at CNAS.

Germany is currently at a critical juncture, balancing numerous challenges both at home and abroad. Just last weekend, populist parties including the far-right AfD scored substantial gains in two state elections in eastern Germany. Two major factors behind these results are the political salience of migration in the national debate, and discussions surrounding Germany’s support for Ukraine. While Berlin has reaffirmed its backing for Kyiv following its recent offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, long-term prospects for German support remain unclear. Simultaneously, the country is struggling with the issue of significant support for Russia-friendly political parties, and infighting among those in the governing coalition. To unpack all of these ongoing developments in German affairs, Daniela Schwarzer and Christopher Schuetze join Jim Townsend and Andrea Kendall-Taylor on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Daniela Schwarzer is a member of the executive board of the Bertelsmann Foundation, where she oversees work on Europe in the world and democracy and societal cohesion. Prior to this, she served as the Executive Director of the Open Society Foundations in Europe and Central Asia and the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations. She is also an honorary professor at Freie Universität Berlin. Christopher Schuetze is a reporter for the New York Times based in Berlin. There, he covers politics, society, and culture in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, along with the rise of populism and the far right in Germany.

The Russia-Ukraine war has recently entered a new phase with the Ukrainian military’s offensive in Kursk, marking one of the most significant battlefield developments in more than a year. Pushing steadily into Russia, the Ukrainian armed forces have reportedly seized more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory, capturing critical infrastructure and leading thousands of civilians to flee their homes. While this offensive seems to be placing new pressure on Moscow’s resources that could potentially even have repercussions for Russian political stability, there are nonetheless major questions about Ukraine’s ability to hold this territory as well as the implications for other areas of the battlefront. To help us understand the motivations for this bold move by Ukraine and what it could mean for the future of the conflict, Mike Kofman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.

As you might now from our last episode, At the NATO Public Forum in July, Brussels Sprouts roamed the halls of the Marriot Marquis hotel in DC interviewing Public Forum guests and attendees on the key issues that were being discussed both at the Forum, and next door at the historic 75th anniversary NATO Summit. In our last episode we heard about the mood of the Summit, it’s successes and those areas where it fell short, and about the unsung deliverables-or important outcomes that didn’t get the attention they deserved. In this episode we’ll hear from conference participants about the alliance’s readiness for a conflict with Russia and on the need to strengthen the European pillar within NATO. Tune in for: Steve Flanagan, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation Damon Wilson, president and CEO of the National Endowment for Democracy Beth Sanner, a resident distinguished fellow at GMF Camille Grand, Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

This week we’re bringing you something a little different. At the NATO Public Forum in July, Brussels Sprouts roamed the halls of the Marriot Marquis hotel in DC interviewing Public Forum guests and attendees on the key issues that were being discussed both at the Forum, and next door at the historic 75th anniversary NATO Summit. In this episode we’ve pulled together some of the snippets of these interviews, focused particularly on the overall mood of the Summit. We discuss what people think the successes of the Summit are and where it fell short of expectations, and ask them to share their thoughts about key issues the Summit failed to address. We’ll be discussing the current situation in Ukraine, what a bridge to membership for Ukraine might look like, reflections on past NATO enlargement, the role of NATO in supporting freedom and democracy, the European industrial defense base, burden sharing, NATO partnerships and much more. In this episode, you will hear from: Damon Wilson, president and CEO of the National Endowment for Democracy Max Bergman, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Luke Coffey, senior fellow at Hudson Institute Steve Flanagan, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation Liana Fix, fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. Sophia Besch, senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Matt Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Dan Fried, former U.S. ambassador to Poland and Mark Newton and Joanne Hamer from the UK Ministry of Defence.

Just a few weeks ago, leaders from across the globe gathered in Washington, D.C. for the historic 75th NATO summit. Over the course of the three-day event, allies engaged in discussions surrounding support for Ukraine, strengthening their defense and deterrence capabilities, and deepening NATO partnerships. On this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts, join us in listening to an edited event hosted on the margins of the NATO Washington Summit by the Center for a New American Security and the Truman Library Institute held at the National Archives Museum. This episode features remarks from Clifton Truman Daniel, along with a discussion of the past, present, and future of the NATO alliance with Mary Sarotte, Stephen Wertheim, and Adam Howard moderated by Steven Erlanger. Clifton Truman Daniel is the honorary chairman of the board of the Truman Library Institute and board secretary of the Harry S. Truman Scholarship Foundation. Steven Erlanger is the Chief Diplomatic Correspondent for The New York Times covering Europe. Most recently, his focus has been on NATO, United States foreign policy, Russia, and the war in Ukraine. Mary Sarotte is the Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Her book, Not One Inch (2021), analyzes how the tensions between the United States, NATO, and Russia have transformed geopolitics. Stephen Wertheim is a Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a historian of U.S. foreign policy and analyzes contemporary problems in American strategy and diplomacy. Adam Howard is the Historian for the United States Department of State and the Director of the Department’s Office of the Historian.

Last week, Washington, DC hosted the NATO summit – marking the historic 75th anniversary of the alliance. Despite the significant milestone, the mood was serious in DC with the war continuing to rage in Ukraine and increasing concern from European allies about the reliability of the United States as a partner in the long term. Though Ukraine emerged as the focus of many discussions, allies also strengthened language on China, emphasizing the challenges that Beijing poses to Euro-Atlantic security. Moreover, Iran and North Korea were also called out for their direct military support to Moscow. To unpack the discussions of the last week, and the challenges faced by NATO today, David Quarrey and Axel Wernhoff join Kate Johnston and Jim Townsend on the podcast today. David Quarrey is the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to NATO. Previously, he served as the Prime Minister’s adviser on International Affairs and Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019-2022, and the British Ambassador to Israel from 2015-2019. Axel Wernhoff is the Permanent Representative of Sweden to NATO. Prior to this, he served as the Ambassador of Sweden to Norway.

From July 9th to 11th, NATO will hold its historic 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC. On the sidelines, CNAS and other think tanks will host the NATO Public Forum. Though the summit will in part be a celebration of the alliance’s enduring success, it also comes at a time when NATO is grappling with numerous challenges. The most pressing issue is of course Ukraine, as NATO members will need to continue to work together to provide Kyiv with support in its efforts to fight off Russia’s invasion. Beyond Ukraine, NATO must navigate the ongoing modernization of its defense and deterrence plans, the increasing risk of hybrid attacks from Russia, the transition to a new Secretary General, and much more. To offer a preview of the Summit and what we should expect, Douglas Lute and Kurt Volker join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Douglas Lute served six years in the White House during two administrations as well as in the role of U.S. Ambassador to NATO during the second Obama-Biden term. Kurt Volker previously served as U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017 to 2019 and as U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009.

Leadership dynamics in Europe are at a critical juncture. Following the recent European Parliament elections, both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have seen their influence wane, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have emerged stronger. At the same time, a new set of leaders is to set take the reins of the top jobs at the EU institutions in Brussels, adding to the current upheaval. Outside the European Union, the United Kingdom faces the prospect of a change to a Labour government following its upcoming elections, which could significantly reshape its role on the continent. Finally, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. leadership following this November’s election is creating doubts about the future of leadership in the transatlantic alliance more broadly. To explore these various developments and their implications, Sophie Pedder and Steven Erlanger join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Sophie Pedder is the Paris Bureau Chief for The Economist, where she writes about French politics and economics. Steven Erlanger is the Chief Diplomatic Correspondent in Europe for The New York Times, with extensive experience in covering transatlantic relations and European affairs from various posts across the globe.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the attempt of transatlantic partners to provide Kyiv with the weapons systems and ammunition it needs to keep up the fight for the long-haul has renewed focus on the importance of the defense industrial base. Particularly in Europe, the past two years have exposed numerous problems with the defense industry, including inadequate stocks and lengthy production timelines. Ukraine’s European backers have attempted to address these issues through new policies at the EU level, including common procurement and a new defense industrial strategy. However, funding shortfalls and ongoing debates about whether defense acquisitions should come from outside the European Union continue to pose obstacles. To discuss the urgency of making Europe’s defense industry fit for the demands of today’s security challenges, Sophia Besch and Christian Mölling join Nicholas Lokker and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Sophia Besch is a fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and her area of expertise is European defense policy. Christian Mölling is deputy director of the Research Institute at the German Council on Foreign Relations, where he also heads the Center for Security and Defense.

Last weekend, voters across the European Union went to the polls to select the next European Parliament. In the run-up to the elections, many observers were focused on the potential for large gains by the far-right, and those projections turned out to be largely accurate, with far-right parties now occupying roughly a quarter of the seats in Parliament. The performance of the far-right was particularly striking in the two largest EU member states of Germany and France, even causing French President Emmanuel Macron to call for snap elections this summer. At the same time, centrist parties look set to continue to control the European Parliament in the years ahead, having won enough seats to form a comfortable governing majority. Finally, as we look ahead to the coming weeks, all eyes will be on the contest for the European Union’s top jobs, as national leaders haggle over the next European Commission President, European Council President, and High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. To address all of this, Klaus Welle and Susi Dennison join Nicholas Lokker and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Klaus Welle is the former Secretary-General of the European Parliament, a role in which he served from 2009 to 2022. And Klaus now serves as the Chaiman of the Academic Council at the Martens Center. Susi Dennison is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her topics of focus include strategy, politics and cohesion in European foreign policy; climate and energy, migration, and the toolkit for Europe as a global actor.

The current moment in the transatlantic relationship is one of high stakes. The United States and its European allies are continuing to grapple with numerous difficulties, including the ongoing war in Ukraine; Russia’s increasing coordination with other adversaries including China, Iran, and North Korea; and an increasing Russian effort to wage hybrid warfare on our societies. Meanwhile, NATO is rapidly approaching its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington next month, where allies will need to find consensus on the way forward in an increasingly dangerous geopolitical environment. To discuss this and more, Thomas Wright joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Thomas Wright is the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Strategic Planning with the National Security Council. Before entering government, he was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is also the author of All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st Century and the Future of American Power, and coauthor, with Colin Kahl, of Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order.

The effects of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine are reverberating far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Perhaps most fundamentally, Putin’s invasion has catalyzed deepening cooperation among Russia and its like-minded partners in China, Iran, and North Korea. Cooperation among these four countries was already expanding before 2022, but the war has accelerated the deepening of their economic, military, political, and technological ties. Although these countries may have banded together in discontent, their repeated interactions and converging views of a future order have the potential to foster deeper and more enduring partnerships. The critical questions no longer center on whether cooperation between these countries will grow, but rather on how deep and durable the cooperation will be, how it will affect U.S. and European interests, and what the West can do to shape its trajectory and ameliorate its negative effects. To discuss all of this and more, Richard Fontaine and Hal Brands join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Richard Fontaine is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security. Prior to coming to CNAS, he was foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and worked at the State Department, the National Security Council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

On 14 May Georgia’s parliament passed a controversial law that requires media and nonprofit groups to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad. The law mirrors a similar law introduced in Russia in 2012, which has been used to crack down on NGOs and other organizations deemed critical of the Kremlin. Many in Georgia view this law as a similar attempt to restrict freedom of speech and reduce the space for civil society. In the weeks following May 14, Georgians took part in mass protests in Tbilisi, and relations between the Georgian government and the EU and US further deteriorated. Moreover, despite Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili's veto of the controversial “foreign agent” law on May 18, lawmakers overrode this decision on May 28, putting it back on the table. To help us understand what is happening in Georgia and the wider implications of recent events for Georgian democracy and their EU ambitions Giorgi Baramidze and Laura Thornton join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Giorgi Baramidze is the political secretary of the United National Movement, the largest opposition party in Georgia. Previously he was the State Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration (2004-2012), and the Minister of Defense (2004). Laura Thornton is the senior vice president of democracy at the German Marshall Fund. She oversees the Alliance for Securing Democracy, and works with GMF’s transatlantic trusts which support civil society organizations and actors in Central and Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans and the Caucuses.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine progresses into its third year, there are questions in some parts of the NATO alliance about how long the West can sustain its support for Kyiv and how the war will actually end. Simultaneously, China and other countries like North Korea and Iran continue to provide support to Russia, and Russia is stepping up hybrid attacks on our societies – everything from disinformation ahead of the European elections to arson, sabotage, and GPS jamming. All of this comes against the backdrop of the upcoming 75th anniversary NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., where there are still looming questions about what exactly will be delivered. To discuss how we should be thinking about and responding to these questions, Pål Jonson, Sweden’s Minister of Defense, and Hanno Pevkur, the Minister of Defense of Estonia, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Kate Johnston live at the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia. Pål Jonson has held the position of Sweden’s Minister of Defense since 2022. He previously served as Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Defense, and Secretary General of the Swedish Atlantic Council. Hanno Pevkur assumed office as the minister of defense of Estonia in 2022. Prior to this, he held several positions in the government including Minister of the Interior, Minister of Justice, and Minister of Social Affairs.

On April 25th, French President Emmanuel Macron gave a nearly two-hour-long speech at the Sorbonne that outlined his vision for Europe. In the context of major challenges such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, intensifying economic pressures, and more, Macron warned that “Europe today is mortal” and that “it can die” if Europeans fail to take united and decisive action. This speech came at a time when Europe is gearing up for multiple major events in the coming months, including both the European Parliament elections in June and the 75th anniversary NATO summit in July. Looking ahead to these milestones, what are the most significant challenges and opportunities facing Europe in the years to come? To help us take stock of the present and anticipate the future, Constanze Stelzenmüller and Nathalie Tocci join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Constanze Stelzenmüller is the director of the Center on the United States and Europe and the inaugural holder of the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations at the Brookings Institution. Nathalie Tocci is the director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs. In her previous capacity as Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, she wrote and worked on the implementation of the European Global Strategy.

While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine over the past two years, Moscow has continued its attempts to use other, nonmilitary tools to pursue its aggressive foreign policy objectives. Western democracies have been an important target of Russian malign influence. Particularly as both the European Union and the United States gear up for key elections later this year, there is mounting evidence of the Kremlin’s efforts to elevate pro-Russian talking points, politicians, and political parties. What lies behind these attempts to undermine Western democracy, and how concerned should we be about Russia’s chances of success? To discuss all of this and more, David Salvo and Brady Hills Join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. David Salvo is a senior fellow and managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund. An expert in Russian affairs, Salvo has been analyzing the Kremlin’s authoritarian toolkit to undermine democracy at home and abroad throughout his career. Brady Hills is a senior analysis and the Head of the Brussels Office of the International Republican Institute (IRI). As a member of IRI’s Beacon Project team, he focuses on countering hybrid threats to democracy, outreach to European policymakers, and discussing support for Ukraine, and EU and NATO enlargement.

On Sunday, May 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping will begin his first trip to Europe in five years. On this trip, Xi will make a high-profile two-day visit to France, where he is likely to encourage President Emmanuel Macron to continue pursuing an independent path from the United States regarding relations with Beijing. Xi will also make stops in Hungary and Serbia, which have cultivated close ties with China in recent years despite calls for de-risking from U.S. and other European leaders. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently returned from a visit to China, during which he met with Xi and other senior Chinese officials amidst the context of persistent simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing. What should we make of these two international trips, and what can they tell us about the current state of the relationships between China, Europe, and the United States? To discuss all of this and more, Noah Barkin and Bonnie Glaser join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Noah Barkin is a Senior Advisor with Rhodium Group's China practice, focusing on Europe-China relations and transatlantic China policy. Bonnie Glaser is managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances along the front lines could become large losses for Ukraine. This is especially likely if Kyiv is unable to overcome worsening shortages of both material and personnel. As military aid continues to be stalled in Congress, the head of U.S. European Command has warned that Ukraine may be in danger of losing the war unless it soon receives additional ammunition from Washington. Amidst all this apparent doom and gloom, how concerned should we be about the trajectory of the war, and what glimmers of hope may still lie on the horizon? To discuss all of this and more, Mike Kofman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.

Just under a year ago, Turkish President Erdogan won another five years in power in the Turkish presidential election. Last week, however, local election results in Turkey delivered a harsh blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Although the gap at the national level wasn’t huge, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won about 38 percent of the vote and Erdogan’s AKP garnered approximately 35 percent, in major Turkish cities such as Istanbul and Ankara the gulf was significant. Following disappointing results for the CHP during last year’s general election, this significant defeat, the largest since the AKP's founding in 2001, proved a surprise. To discuss how we should interpret these election results and their implications for Turkish democracy, Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of numerous books, including his most recent work, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, which is set to be released on June 3, 2024. Asli Aydintaşbaş is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, as well as a former Global Opinions columnist at The Washington Post and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a notable evolution in France’s approach toward Moscow. In the initial months following the invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron continued to engage diplomatically with Vladimir Putin, controversially insisting that the West must not humiliate Moscow, prompting harsh criticism from France’s NATO allies. After apologizing last year for France’s previous failure to listen to the warning of its Central and Eastern European allies about Russian intentions, however, the French President notably pushed last month for greater Western strategic ambiguity regarding the war, stating that he had not ruled out the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. This once again prompted an outcry from NATO allies wary of escalation, such as Germany and the United States. To discuss how to interpret this apparent shift in French thinking and its possible implications going forward, Tara Varma and Bruno Tertrais join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts. Tara Varma is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Bruno Tertrais is the Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a leading French think-tank on international security issues.