Brussels Sprouts

On April 7, after more than five weeks of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire, provided Iran allows passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The following day, the leaders of seven European states—plus Canada, the European Commission, and the European Council—released a joint statement welcoming the ceasefire, encouraging a negotiated settlement, and announcing that their governments “will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” The group included the United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany, and Spain, which has especially angered President Trump for its opposition to the war. Leaders from each of these countries and the European Union have also called for the ceasefire to include Lebanon, which the United States and Israel say was not part of the agreement. On a planned visit to the Gulf, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the importance of opening the Strait of Hormuz, saying it is the “job” of leaders to do so. France’s top military commander said that the French government was considering “strictly defensive” military options to assist. That same day, Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington as part of a long-scheduled visit. Trump reportedly used the meeting to vent his frustration with NATO allies over their refusal to back the U.S. war with Iran, signaling that he was considering reprisal. Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to pull the United States out of the alliance, berated NATO allies online following the meeting and alluded to his previous threats to annex Greenland—which precipitated the last major crisis in the transatlantic relationship before the war with Iran. To make sense of these developments, Brussels Sprouts is happy to welcome back Constanze Stelzenmüller and Sophia Besch to this week’s edition of the podcast. Sophia Besch is a senior fellow with the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Constanze Stelzenmüller is the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. The episode was recorded on April 10, 2026.

While the world's attention has turned to the war with Iran, the war in Ukraine continues. Russia has seemingly kicked off its spring offensive, but a meaningful breakthrough remains unlikely. Moscow has increased the tempo of its operations, relying more heavily on mechanized and motorized assaults, an approach that is typical for this time of year. Yet last year's experience suggests limited prospects for success. Despite a similar surge last year, Russian forces achieved only marginal gains while incurring significant equipment losses, ultimately forcing Russian forces to relatively quickly return to smaller scale infiltration tactics. Meanwhile, the war in Iran will affect dynamics in Ukraine. The most pressing concern for Ukraine is its air and missile defense. Russia is expanding production of ballistic missiles and improving their effectiveness. Kyiv remains heavily dependent on U.S.-provided systems to intercept these threats, with no real viable alternative currently available. The United States is rapidly expending these resources in the Middle East. And the longer that conflict continues, the more it is likely to exacerbate Ukraine's vulnerability. Financially, Russia is also benefiting from the war with Iran. Higher oil prices and the easing of US sanctions are pumping higher revenue into Russia's coffers. Although Ukraine is taking bold steps to disrupt Russia's energy exports, a prolonged period of higher energy prices will, at a minimum, alleviate the economic strain that Moscow was feeling earlier this year. To discuss these dynamics and much more, Brussels Sprouts is very happy to welcome Elina Ribakova and Ambassador Bill Taylor to the show this week. Ambassador Bill Taylor is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. Elina Ribakova is vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics and a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

On March 14, in the wake of a global energy shock triggered by the United States military campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump called on allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have disrupted oil flows. European leaders responded cautiously, and in many cases negatively, as they tried to balance concerns about the conflict with the need to preserve relations with Washington. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was blunt, saying, “This is not our war.” United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck a more measured tone, pledging to work with allies to restore freedom of navigation, but emphasizing that the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war.” The following day, Trump raised the stakes, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if allies fail to act. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed confidence that members would ultimately come together to secure the strait. But the incident has already exposed deep unease in Europe, both about the trajectory of the conflict and on the future of the transatlantic alliance. To discuss all of this and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook and Jeremy Shapiro to this week’s show. Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook is executive vice president at the Bertelsmann Foundation Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic relations