Volatility Problem | Probability S&P 500 Goes Up or Down 9.8% | Cracks in Economy? | Earnings Estimates Rise
Broken Pie Chart · Derek Moore
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Show Notes
Derek Moore is back to go over some bullish and bearish economic and market items. Avocado prices are spiking while lumber prices are falling. Divergence between the Trucking Tonnage Index vs the S&P 500 Index. Later we discuss the lack of historical volatility in the market given we haven't had a greater than 2.05% down day for over 375 days. Then taking listener questions around the probability a market goes up or down 9.8% and what goes into calculating option probabilities. Finally, Derek explains the "Volatility Problem" from a listener question comparing the difference between average returns and CAGR compounded annualized growth rate.
What is the volatility problem?
CAGR Compounded Annualized Growth Rate
Average return vs CAGR return and why it matters
Avocado vs Lumber prices
Trucking Tonnage Index vs the S&P 500 Index
EconPi median of coordinates showing decline quad for economy
Economic surprise index explained
Why hedging makes sense to manage volatility
Mentioned in this Episode
Econ PI site http://econpi.com/index.php
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]