Bloomberg Surveillance

Jennifer Surane, Bloomberg Regional Bank Reporter, and Bill Blain, Mint Partners Head of Capital Markets, wrap Morgan Stanley's earnings. Brian Klaas, London School of Economics Fellow in Comparative Politics, says international election rigging is going to become the new normal. Don Straszheim, Evercore ISI Senior Managing Director of China Research, feels Washington doesn't want to be the global leader and China is incapable of it. Bart van Ark, Conference Board Chief Economist, says finding and retaining highly-skilled workers is one of the main concerns for CEOs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yalman Onaran, Bloomberg Senior Writer, and Janet Henry, HSBC Global Chief Economist, wrap bank earnings and provide an outlook for 2018. John Hudak, Brookings Governance Senior Fellow, says we're at a crossroads in U.S. politics in regards to infrastructure spending. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO for International Equity, says there is still space for Glencore to re-rate. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says there are definitely animal spirits about tax reform still. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robin Niblett, Chatham House Director, says we're moving to a stage where America's traditional allies cannot count on America to have their back. David Page, AXA Investment Managers Senior Economist, questions the sustainability of the growth that resulted from U.S. tax reform. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says she's still looking for something below 3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Niall Ferguson, Harvard University Professor, says the Chinese have evolved a completely different relationship between giant tech and government and it's going to be fascinating to see how the two co-exist. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brad Hintz, New York University Professor, and Dakin Campbell, Bloomberg Wall Street Reporter, start off earnings season with a review of JPMorgan's results. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says a cyclical pickup in productivity can stretch the CapEx cycle. Neil Dhar, PwC Head of Financial Services, says U.S. banks are strong and they're getting stronger. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says less than 20% of the global bond market yields 4%. Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies President and Founder, says you don't give money to the top 1%: the lower earners are the big consumers.Rep. Bill Pascrell, (D) New Jersey, says we're treating hardworking immigrants like second-class citizens. Dennis Gartman, Gartman Letter Editor and Publisher, says there's a fear we are starting a multi-decade bond bear market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder, says he likes to think that President Trump's handlers are sending him to Davos to repair ties damaged over the past year. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says shorting base metals in the midst of an economic expansion is a very dangerous proposition. Ernest Moniz, former U.S. Energy Secretary, says the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is a long-term goal. Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Fund Manager, says we're not headed to investment armageddon. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Research, says asset valuations will be the biggest problem for the dollar this year. Stanley Collender, Qorvis MSLGROUP Executive VP, says as interest rates rise, it will begin to become a political problem. Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners Managing Partner, provides an overview of the industrial sector. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget & Policy Senior Fellow, says when we hit the next recession, we will have too little monetary and fiscal space. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Chief Emerging Markets Economist, predicts we won't see any meaningful liberalization in China anytime soon. Daniel Tannebaum, PwC Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, says the multilateral sanction days are hanging by a thread. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton US Chief Economist, says she's worried about the economy having a good year at the expense of future years. Eric Freedman, US Bank Wealth Management Chief Investment Strategist, says second and third derivative plays are the next level in global equity markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, says the Fed should debate the meaning of a flattening yield curve. Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor, says we'll see less infrastructure investment because of the tax bill. Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Fund Manager, says we're in a bond bear market but we won't lose a lot of money. Gary Cohn, National Economic Council Director, says the economy will continue to grow and add jobs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Silvia, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says the European economic strength has been surprising but it will simmer down. James Stavridis, Tufts Fletcher School Dean, says President Trump must up his game to resolve North Korea diplomatically. Alessio de Longis, Oppenheimerfunds Portfolio Manager, says the Fed is hiking at a much more gradual pace than we've seen historically. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management Managing Director & Co-Head of Multi Asset, said 2018 will see higher interest rates on the long end of the curve. Former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said the Fed can stop inflation from coming by raising rates and is worried about the Fed still raising rates. Krishna Memani, OppenheimerFunds CIO, said because of the tax bill, there will be a short-term increase in growth and earnings. U.S. Representative Will Hurd (R-TX) said building a concrete wall is the least effective way to build border security. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jack Lew, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, said the U.S. economy needs a targeted investment. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group Founder and President, said most American companies are happy with Trump's domestic policies but not happy with his international policies. Dom Barton, McKinsey & Co. Global Managing Partner said when trade deals go wrong, it's a race to the bottom. Vint Cerf, Google Chief Internet Evangelist, said our ability to use machine learning is quite impressive and we can absorb large amounts of data. Brad Smith, Microsoft President and Chief Legal Officer, said there is a real divide between urban and rural areas and we need financial innovation back in rural areas. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Luigi Zingales, Chicago Booth Professor of Finance, says Ireland's success story is a result of its low tax rates attracting foreign investment. Michael Purves, Weeden And Co Chief Global Strategist, predicts tech and financials are going to continue to outperform next year. Julian Kheel, The Points Guy Senior Analyst, says we may see smaller seats on flights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Holland, Holland & Company Chairman, says the intrinsic value of a company can erode. Chris Edwards, CATO Institute Director of Tax Policy, thinks both the economy and the government will end up being winners under the GOP Tax law. Matt Brill, Invesco Advisers Senior Portfolio Manager, expects to see balance sheets expand well into 2019. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Portfolio Manager, says anyone appointed to the Fed should be great at communication. David Burton, Heritage Foundation’s Senior Fellow in Economic Policy, says the tax legislation is a shadow of what it should have been. Kevin Cummins, Natwest Senior Economist, says the Fed rate hike pace won't be a threat to economic activity. RJ Gallo, Federated Investors Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Duration Committee, says tax cuts don't pay for themselves. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kim Schoenholtz, Stern School of Business Professor, says Bitcoin's bubble won't be worrisome for the economy if it bursts. Sharyn O'Halloran, Columbia University Professor, says simplifying and closing loopholes would have done a lot for our tax system. Stephen Schork, Schork Group President, says $75 oil is a long ways off.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jason Furman, Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, offers a Surveillance correction for Tom Keene. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Founder and Senior Research Analyst, says AT&T stock may be one of the biggest winners from tax reform. Jerry Storch, Storch Advisors CEO and former Hudson's Bay CEO, predicts there will always be room for well-located, "A" malls. Diane Swonk, DS Economics Founder, is disappointed that instead of tax reform, we did tax cuts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Group Managing Director/Portfolio Manager, says we've lived in an environment of unusually low volatility because of the tremendous amount of global liquidity. Stan Collender, MSLGROUP National Director of Financial Communications, says the Republicans have already started politicizing the deficit. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, tells the story of the day he hired Tom Keene. Oliver Chen, Cowen and Company Senior Analyst, says micro-trends are happening all over the retail sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, likes the upward movement in yields but he doesn't trust it. Jon Lieber, PwC Washington National Tax Services Principal, doesn't think the Democrats will score points going after the deficit. David Miliband, International Rescue Committee President & CEO, says one of the phenomenons of globalization is people urbanizing, including refugees. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research LLC President & Founder, says the benefit of bitcoin right now is that it only has buyers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, says the U.S. is lagging in educational attainment and it's hurting productivity. Neel Kashkari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President, says the Fed should be cautious about raising interest rates further until they actually see inflationary pressures building. Bill Hoagland, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Vice President, says the tax bill should be beneficial in the short term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder, says we're all just speculating about where bitcoin is going. Antony Phillipson, U.K. Consul General to New York and Director General of International Trade North America, says completing phase 1 of Brexit negotiations was a big moment for the U.K. Bob Profusek, Jones Day Head of Mergers and Acquisitions, says "synergy" is often another word for job cuts when it comes to deals. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Administration Senior Fellow, says state budgets aren't in great shape.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Global Strategist, predicts U.S. bond yields will go higher next year. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Editor, says one of the interesting things to watch in 2018 is the Saudi-Iranian relationship. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data CEO and Founder, foresees an institutional chapter in the cryptocurrency market. Sony Kapoor, Re-Define Managing Director, says he never lost faith in the EU's ability to stay together and be resilient, even in the depths of the European crisis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says one of the biggest disappoints of the year is that wage growth hasn't accelerated. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, predicts the unemployment rate is going to fall more rapidly than what the Fed forecasts. Steve Keen, Kingston University Economics Professor, says the major factor behind the rise in the S&P is quantitative easing. Bob Iger, The Walt Disney Company Chairman and CEO, expects scrutiny from regulatory authorities worldwide following the acquisition of 21st Century Fox assets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, predicts unemployment is going into the mid-3s by the end of next year. Anthony Scaramucci, Former White House Communications Director, says there are great high-yielding assets in the hedge fund space. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments CIO, says the Alabama election is a real wake up call to the GOP. Dennis Gartman, Gartman Letter Publisher, says the oat market has always been the canary in the coal mine of grains. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, says it's time to be prepared for turbulence in the equity markets. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Political Analyst, says whoever wins the Alabama election, the tax bill will still go forward. Brian Reynolds, Canaccord Genuity Asset Class Strategist, says credit cycles always end and when they do, it's badly. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini Co-Founders, say the great thing about the bitcoin futures contract is that naysayers can now short it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate & Yale Professor, is not sure it was a good idea to launch bitcoin futures because he thinks it's still not a reputable market. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Senior Vice President, says the likelihood of a government shutdown is dependent on whether or not the tax bill passes. Viraj Patel, ING FX Strategist, thinks this year was a learning point for markets.Don Rissmiller, Strategas Research Chief Economist, says he would not expect bold comments from the Fed anytime soon. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Willem Buiter, Citigroup Global Chief Economist, says he would not give the GOP tax package particularly high marks. Alan Krueger, Princeton University Economics Professor, says the opioid crisis is a result of American medical practices and the government can do more to aid it. James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says if the U.S. stays at full employment, we'll hopefully see more wealth spread to rural economies.Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Fund Manager, reacts to the jobs numbers and says there are a number of structural forces that keep wages down. Gary Cohn, National Council of Economic Advisors Director, says that infrastructure reform is next after they get the tax bill passed. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Strategist, says there is still deep value in Europe. Omair Sharif, Societe Generale Chief U.S. Economist, does not foresee a ton of upside for healthcare next year. Jim Morris, Bloomberg News First Word Reporter, says this is the worst fire season Southern California has seen in years. Fred Lane, Lane Generational of Raymond James Managing Partner, says there is inevitably a bond bear market coming but it's not going to be that deep.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Martin Feldstein, Harvard University George F. Baker Professor of Economics, says now is the time for tax reform because the politics are right. Henry Olsen, EPPC Senior Fellow, says President Trump needs to recover his populist mojo. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Interest Rates Strategy, says it's time for the next bond market phase. Michael Chui, McKinsey & Co. Senior Fellow, says there is enough work for people to do, even with the increased use of robots. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Group Senior Research Analyst, says Europe won't continue to let tech companies not pay taxes. Christopher Verrone, Strategas Research Partners Head of Technical Analysis, says small caps are in a position to reassume leadership. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says there is very little in the tax bill that will boost productivity. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says it's a great environment for banks right now See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Professor and author of "The Four," told Jon Ferro and Tom Keene that we're about to see Margrethe Vestager go gangster on big tech regulation. Rich Greenfield, BTIG analyst, says it's not clear how Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google will weaken given their size right now. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, says his team is beginning to analyze blockchain in the marketplace, from consumer to financial services.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Highlights from the roller coaster week for Bitcoin as it hit record highs and gets the green light from regulators to allow trading on the CME and Cboe. Guests include:Steen Jakobson, Saxo Bank Chief Economist, Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University Professor, Christopher Ailman, CalSTRS Chief Investment Officer, Anne Richards, M&G Investments Chief Executive, Robin Niblett, Chatham House DirectorJim McCaughan,Principal Global Investors CEO and Elaine Ou, Bloomberg View Columnist.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geoff Dennis, UBS Investment Bank Head of EM Strategy, says they have told their investors to be careful being long on technology. Stephen Schork, Schork Report President, says the Black Swan for the 2018 oil market is Saudi Arabia driving Qatar into the arms of Iran. Ashwin Alankar, Janus Henderson Global Head of Asset Allocation and Risk Management, thinks a lot of people are misinterpreting bitcoin as the blockchain. Ben Emons, Intellectus Partners Chief Economist, says Marvin Goodfriend's nomination could lead to a big shift in the Fed's agenda next year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University Professor, says the tax 'trigger' in the proposed tax bill is the worst kind of economic policy that you can imagine. Yanis Varoufakis, Former Finance Minister of Greece, says the architecture of the European economy can't sustain the shockwaves of this post globalization era. Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says its very surprising that the oil markets have not moved higher given the strength of the fundamentals and geopolitical risks. James Stavridis, Tufts Fletcher School Dean, says the chances of war in the Korean Peninsula have gone up.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Money goes where it's treated best. That simple truth is a big reason why more and more money—trillions, in fact—flows into a powerful, low-cost tool that's quietly transformed investing in recent years. Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, let you invest in everything from the stock market to gold like never before. This podcast will demystify them—and delight you in the process.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Richard Clarida, PIMCO Global Strategic Advisor, says Jerome Powell is an excellent appointment for Fed Chair. Catherine Mann, OECD Chief Economist, says it's not clear how much corporate tax reform is in the GOP package but we haven't seen the full details yet. Diane Swonk, Diane Swonk & Associates CEO and Founder, says the payback from infrastructure spending has been lost on lawmakers over time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says a 3% productivity growth is unrealistic under any economic investment boom. Guy Chiarello, First Data President, says people are getting comfortable with online and mobile retail. Jerry Storch, Storch Advisors CEO and Former CEO of Hudson's Bay, says the future is bright for retailers who make rapid changes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Howard Davidowitz, Davidowitz & Associates, says he has a lot of doubts about Walmart being able to pull off the Amazon model. Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform, says the Senate tax bill is likely to pass at the end of next week. Lin Noueihed, Bloomberg North Africa Bureau Chief, says the Egypt Sinai mosque attack is a particularly large scale attack. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, says they're seeing a very nice investing backdrop in emerging markets. Philip Verleger, PK Verlerger President, says the recent events in Saudi Arabia are what are going to impact oil prices. Sony Kapoor, Managing Director, Re-Define, says businesses in the U.K. can no longer sit on their hands and wait to do their contingency planning for Brexit. Julian Mark Kheel, The Points Guy Senior Analyst, says U.S. Airlines have an eye on Ryanair because they'll have to compete with or match their ticket prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Credit Strategy, says this year's M&A activity showed a notable slowdown because of politics and tax structure. Steve Bell, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Advisor, says the Republican proposed tax bill will help the Democrats next year if passed. Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says Investors are caught between two very powerful forces: FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and FOMU (Fear of Messing Up)..See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Harm Bandholz, UniCredit Chief U.S. Economist, says the time for tax reform is right but we don't need a tax cut in this environment. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor, says the debt to GDP ratio has doubled in the last decade and will double again.Michael Nathanson, Moffettnathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, says Twitter is not a great place for advertising and branding. Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University Professor, says the political mess and resulting hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is transferable to other nations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Representative Jim Renacci, a Republican from Ohio, says he's a big believer in the 401(k) and that the Republicans risk holding the majority if they don't pass the tax bill. Prior to that, Willem Buiter, Citigroup's chief economist, offers his global growth outlook for the year ahead. Finally, Rich Greenfield, a media analyst at BTIG, says future generations aren't going to watch linear TV but they'll consume more content than previous generations on an array of platforms. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kathy Fisher, the head of wealth and investment strategies at AB Bernstein Private Wealth Management, predicts we're going to be in the longest recovery for the economy and markets we've ever seen in modern history. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO's head of public policy, says at best, the GOP bill is "tax reform lite." Mickey Levy, Berenberg's chief U.S. and Asia economist, says the lack of wage growth is a structural problem for the United States. Finally, Brooke Lampley, the incoming vice chairman of Sotheby's fine art division, says the $450.3 million sale of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is fitting given the scarcity and prominence of his work. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the U.S. has isolated itself from trading allies and that it shouldn't be complicit to Duterte's government in the Philippines. Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter, says the bull market for stocks has come to an abrupt stop. Finally, David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff's chief economist, says the bog bond story could be in China right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stan Collender, MSL Group's executive vice president, says the GOP tax bill isn't economic in origin, but totally political. Prior to that, Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics, says we're not yet at levels on the yield curve where we need to be worried about a downturn in the economy. Bloomberg TV anchor Jon Ferro joins for a beat to mourn Italy not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. Rajiv Jain, founder and CIO of GQG Partners, says he's pretty upbeat on a long term basis about emerging markets in Africa. Finally, Nick Heymann, William Blair & Co.'s co-head of global industrial infrastructure, says General Electric is attempting to offset its inherent cyclicality. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeff Sprague, founder of Vertical Research Partners, predicts upwards of ten percent of General Electric staff will be out the door in the next 36 months. Prior to that, Seth Masters, the former CIO of AB Bernstein, says the changes at GE symbolically highlight the passing of the baton from the U.S. being defined as a great manufacturer to the industry contributing to a smaller portion of GDP. Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Administration, says the $1.5 trillion loss from the tax bill makes the GOP look like fiscal chicken hawks. Finally, Ed Hammond, a senior deals reporter at Bloomberg News, says Qualcomm rejecting Broadcom is the least surprising news of the day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics at University of California Berkeley, discusses global currencies and comments on China's move to open markets for financial firms, saying "it will take time, if it happens." Prior to that, Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says we should be expecting some correction in the markets. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman at Willett Advisors, says there's a better than 50/50 chance that the House flips in the 2018 elections. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps says it would be good to try out higher interest rates and that reopening coal mines in the U.S. wouldn't send a good signal to the rest of the world. Prior to that, Jens Nordvig, CEO of Exante Data, says if U.S. tax reform doesn't happen in the coming months, the dollar may drift weaker. Finally, Krishna Memani, Oppenheimerfunds' chief investment officer, says the core of the Fed under Jay Powell won't be dramatically different than under Janet Yellen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Timothy O'Brien, executive editor at Bloomberg View and Bloomberg Gadfly, discusses last night's election results and says collusion isn't a threat to President Trump, but bribery may "bring the hen to roost." Prior to that, Axel G. Merk, president of Merk Investments, says the biggest tail-risk right now is if China retaliates with trade policy. Steven Major, HSBC's head of fixed income research, says the ECB has missed its chance to hike. Finally, Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican from West Virginia, says we need to find a non-addictive pain medicine and fund more research to beat the opioid crisis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thomas Edward Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, discusses today's elections and says President Trump is filling the swamp with his own alligators. Prior to that, Ted Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the U.S. is a reasonably low-taxed country. Ralph Northam, the lieutenant governor of the state of Virginia, says Trump has released detrimental policies in Washington. Finally, Stephen Kotkin, a professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University, says Russia is at a weak point right now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.