Miami CRE 2026: Stabilization, Shifting Leverage & the Affordability Question
Between Two Chairs - Demystifying Commercial Real Estate · Fernando Arencibia, Jr. and Jennifer Wollmann
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Show Notes
"Mixed Urban Is A Trend, Not Trendy"
The 2026 CCIM Miami Monroe Outlook Conference delivered a clear message: Miami’s commercial real estate market is not collapsing — it’s recalibrating.
In this episode, we break down the biggest takeaways from industry leaders including Jeffrey Havsey of Moody’s Analytics, Terry Fraser Reid of Miami Freedom Park, Michael Berkowitz of Berkowitz Development Group, South Miami Mayor Javier Fernandez, Carrie Smith of Franklin Street, Grant Killingsworth of CBRE, Edison Vasquez of ComReal, and Mitash Kripalani of Cushman & Wakefield.
Some of the highlights include:
- Retail: Notable submarkets:
- Brickell
- Wynwood
- Coral Gables
- Coconut Grove (reestablished primary market)
- South Miami (Sunset Place redevelopment catalyst)
- Industrial: 2025 favored tenants, with:
- Higher concessions
- Slower lease-up times
- Tariff-related pauses mid-year
But new construction has slowed significantly, meaning fewer deliveries in 2–3 years. By Q4 2026, leverage is projected to shift back toward landlords.
A key tension to watch: the disconnect between developer-required land pricing ($2–$2.5M/acre) and owner expectations ($3M+/acre).
- The Big Picture for 2026: Miami CRE is entering a phase of:
- Slower but stabilizing fundamentals
- Moderating rent growth
- Decelerating supply
- Improving sentiment
- Sector-specific leverage shifts
It’s no longer a frenzy market. It’s a fundamentals market.
And in that environment, underwriting, local expertise, and strategic positioning matter more than ever.