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Behind the Markets Podcast

Behind the Markets Podcast

496 episodes — Page 3 of 10

MacroCharts 1st podcast!

Show from 06/21/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market trends, focusing on slightly lower-than-expected economic data, jobless claims, and recent activity in the tech sector, particularly NVIDIA's stock movements. Siegel also comments on the ongoing softness in the housing market and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential debate on the stock market. (11:06) Jeremy continues with the publisher of Macro Charts on Substack, who shares insights on market trends, technical analysis, and his investment philosophy. They discuss the recent performance of the U.S. market, and the positioning and potential of China as an investment opportunity. The guest talks about the importance of understanding market signals and avoiding noise in investment decisions. Macro Charts emphasizes the need to focus on significant trends and signals while also being adaptable to the fast-paced changes in market conditions. Guest: Macro Charts publishes global market research on Substack. Substack is an American online platform that allows journalists, writers, and other content creators to publish newsletters and establish a subscription-based audience. Learn more about Macro Charts at: https://macrocharts.substack.com/about Follow Macro Charts on X(Twitter): @MacroCharts

Jun 21, 202452 min

Inflationary Waves and Case for $4,000 Gold

Show from 06/14/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week by discussing the latest inflation data and the Fed meeting outcomes. Professor Siegel highlights that inflation numbers across various indices have met or fallen below expectations, and he anticipates a potential rate cut by the Fed based on the current data trends. Additionally, Siegel touches on the job market’s stability and the strong performance of specific tech stocks despite a narrow market rally. (10:04) Jeremy continues the conversation with Philippe Gijsels, who introduces his new book “The New World Economy in Five Trends.” They discuss the long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt, and the role of innovation in potentially countering these trends. Gijsels elaborates on the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment. The two also discuss the significance of geopolitical shifts, and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors. Guest: Philippe Gijsels is an enthusiastic investment professional, a rare exception who managed to turn his hobby into a profession. He studied economics and financial analysis, read tons of books on investing and many other topics and has now been working for the Fortis ‘family’, which was renamed BNP Paribas Fortis, for almost 20 years. The integration of the bank into the BNP Paribas group opened up a whole new world of contacts and information for him. Learn more about Philippe at: https://www.bnpparibasfortis.com/newsroom/press-release/philippe_gijsels_appointed_chief_strategy_officer_at_bnp_paribas_fortis Follow Philippe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/philippe-gijsels-5563131

Jun 12, 202452 min

SCSP: A Vision for Competitiveness

Show from 06/7/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market data, highlighting unexpected job growth and its implications on the economy. Professor Siegel notes the market’s resilience despite bond market fluctuations, and emphasizes the potential impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and CPI reports. (10:47) Jeremy Schwartz continues the discussion with Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. They explore the strategic importance of technology and innovation in maintaining global competitiveness, particularly against China. Ylli discusses the parallels between their new document and the Cold War-era NSC 68, and outlines the critical role of AI and other emerging technologies in the geopolitical landscape. They also touch on the necessity for public-private partnerships and the bipartisan support needed to stay ahead in the technology race. Guest: Ylli Bajraktari is the President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. Prior to launching SCSP, Ylli served as the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining NSCAI, he served as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor LTG H.R. McMaster, held a variety of leadership roles for former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and served as Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey. Originally joining the Department of Defense in 2010, he served in the Office of the Undersecretary for Policy as a country director for Afghanistan, and later India. Mr. Bajraktari is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal – the highest award given to career DoD civilian employees. Learn more about Ylli at: https://www.scsp.ai/ylli-bajraktari/ Follow Ylli on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ylli-bajraktari-5b101326b

Jun 7, 202452 min

Strategies for Uncertain Times

Show from 05/31/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss recent market trends, starting with the latest inflation data, earnings season results, and current tech sector weaknesses. Professor Siegel comments on the recent jury decision on Trump, noting it had no significant market impact. Professor Siegel anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth but does not foresee a recession. (09:03) Jeremy continues the conversation with Adam Phillips, Managing Director of Investments at EP Wealth Advisors. Adam provides an overview of EP Wealth Advisors, emphasizing their focus on comprehensive financial planning and investment management. He discusses how election uncertainties impact clients’ investment strategies and the broader market. He also explains the firm’s approach to managing portfolios, highlighting a preference for high-quality investments and strategic diversification. Adam noted an increased interest in international investments, particularly in Japan and Europe. On the fixed income front, Adam describes their strategy of managing duration and maintaining exposure to high-quality bonds while cautiously incorporating strategic income assets. Adam also touches on the role of alternative investments in client portfolios, including private credit, private equity, and other non-traditional assets. He underscores the importance of these investments in achieving diversification and managing risk in the current economic environment. Guest: Adam N. Phillips, CFA, CAIA, CFP® has a strong background in investments and portfolio strategy. Adam N. has held various senior level positions at EP Wealth Advisors and City National Rochdale, where Adam N. has worked with high net worth, trust, and institutional clients. With an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BS in Business Administration from USC Marshall School of Business, Adam's expertise in asset allocation, security selection, and tax management make him a valuable asset in the finance industry. Learn more about Adam at: https://theorg.com/org/ep-wealth-advisors/org-chart/adam-n-phillips-cfa-caia-cfp Follow Adam on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/adamnphillips

May 31, 202452 min

Jeremy Joins Facts vs Feelings Pod

Show from 05/24/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese for a special dual release episode of Behind the Markets and Facts vs. Feelings. The tables turn in this episode as Jeremy takes the guest seat. He discusses his long-term collaboration with Professor Jeremy Siegel and their work on “Stocks for the Long Run,” highlighting insights on market trends, valuation perspectives, and international investments. They delve into the current state of the economy, inflation measures, and the potential impact of AI on productivity. Ryan and Sonu then shift the conversation to Jeremy’s experiences as WisdomTree’s Global CIO, exploring the firm’s innovative approaches to ETFs and model portfolios. Jeremy shares his thoughts on the importance of international diversification, the competitive edge of Japanese stocks, and the implications of currency hedging strategies. The episode concludes with Professor Siegel and Jeremy’s passion for barbecue. Facts Vs Feelings Hosts: As Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, Ryan Detrick brings a wealth of expertise and a strong understanding of financial markets to guide the firm’s strategic investment decisions. With a proven track record of insightful market analysis and a passion for helping both advisors and clients navigate the complexities of the financial landscape, Ryan plays a pivotal role in shaping the investment strategies that drive Carson Group’s success. Sonu Varghese has over 15 years of experience in the Asset Management industry. Before joining Carson, he was a Partner and Director of Research at Convex Capital Management where he co-managed portfolios, advised clients and led the research effort, including creating a proprietary leading economic index for 30 countries and systematizing investment processes. Prior to that Sonu worked independently with hedge fund managers and high-net worth individuals to develop quantitative investment models for trading equities, options, ETFs and closed-end funds. Learn more about Ryan at: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/team-members/ryan-detrick/ Follow Ryan on X(Twitter): @RyanDetrick Learn more about Sonu at: https://www.carsonwealth.com/team-members/sonu-varghese/ Follow Sonu on X(Twitter): @sonuvarghese Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0pDWHQulo5ezvA3hPS5wH7 Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Apple Music: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/talking-about-markets-and-life-with-jeremy-schwartz-ep-87/id1651235114?i=1000657157147

May 30, 202440 min

Insights from Wharton’s AI Conference

Show from 05/24/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the recent positive economic data, including strong durable goods reports, good claims data, and a strong GDP growth rate for the current quarter. Professor Siegel expresses optimism despite some market jitters related to the FOMC minutes and commodity price movements. He highlights how certain economic indicators, such as oil and copper prices, have softened, which may positively impact inflation trends. Siegel also discusses the potential implications of AI advancements, especially in light of NVIDIA’s impressive earnings, and the broader economic context, emphasizing the importance of monitoring future economic data closely. (6:56) Jeremy welcomes guest Daniel Rock, a professor at Wharton and an expert on AI and its economic impacts. They discuss Daniel’s recent AI conference and the cutting-edge research presented there, including the role of AI in enhancing productivity and the transformation of various job sectors. Daniel elaborates on his research findings, indicating that while AI can significantly boost productivity in higher-wage jobs, it also poses challenges in terms of job displacement and economic inequality. The conversation touches on practical AI applications in business, the necessity of training and adaptation for effective AI implementation, and the potential long-term economic benefits and risks associated with widespread AI adoption. Daniel also highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration to fully understand and harness the power of AI in the evolving economic landscape. Guest: Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor in the Operations, Information, and Decisions(OID) department at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is one of the affiliated faculty members at Wharton AI for Business. Broadly, his research is centered on the economic impact of digital technologies. Daniels' work shows that new digital technologies and intangible assets are an increasingly important component of economic activity. Investment in data assets, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and technological human capital are critical margins for firm competition and social change in this environment. In his research, Daniel measures and explains how some of these trends are evolving. Learn more about Daniel at: https://www.danielianrock.com/ Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @danielrock

May 24, 202452 min

Tactical Takes on Emerging Markets

Show from 05/17/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest market trends, starting with recent positive inflation data. The Prof notes concerns over various economic indicators, such as soft retail sales and housing starts, while emphasizing strong earnings and technical market strength. He also mentions the rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, driven by AI-related demand. Despite some economic weaknesses, The Professor remains bullish on the market’s short-term technicals. (12:08) Jeremy then welcomes Krishna Kumar, founder and PM at Goose Hollow Capital. They discuss the dominance of tech stocks in the S&P 500, the challenges of high valuations, and the strategic importance of commodities in portfolios. Krishma elaborates on the need for tactical investment strategies. He talks about the potential of emerging markets, and the importance of diversifying beyond traditional U.S.-centric portfolios. Guest: Krishna Kumar is the CIO of Goose Hollow Capital Management, a boutique investment management firm based in the NY area. He has two decades of markets experience with expertise in derivatives trading and has managed size-able multi-asset portfolios at two large Hedge Funds. Prior to his buy-side career, Mr. Kumar worked in Derivatives at Citi and Barclays. He was a pioneer in creating Systematic Strategies at Barclays. He has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Graduate degree in Computational Finance. He has been applying machine learning techniques to Macro Markets. Learn more about Krishna at: https://goosehollowcapital.com/ Follow Krishna on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/krishna-kumar-mba-89372aa

May 17, 202452 min

SCSP: Bringing Advanced Manufacturing Home

Show from 05/10/24 Jeremy Schwartz, alongside Elisabeth Reynolds from MIT and Liza Tobin from SESP, discuss the dynamic landscape of U.S. competitiveness in technology and manufacturing. The conversation focuses on the implications of the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are pivotal in revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing sector through substantial governmental investment and policy support. Elisabeth and Liza highlight the strategic need to strengthen supply chains and enhance technological advancements to compete globally, particularly against China’s long standing manufacturing strategies. They emphasize the importance of integrating advanced manufacturing technologies and digital capabilities to sustain economic security and industrial innovation in the U.S. Guests: Elisabeth Reynolds is a Lecturer and Principal Research Scientist focused on systems of innovation, regional economic development and industrial competitiveness. Her research and practice centers on regional cluster development and innovation systems as well as advanced manufacturing, growing innovative companies to scale, and building innovation capacity in developed and developing countries. She recently served in the Biden Administration at the National Economic Council as Special Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Economic Development from 2021 to October, 2022. In that capacity, she was engaged in many of the country’s supply chain challenges as well as helped to develop the Biden Administration’s manufacturing agenda and broader industrial strategy including around infrastructure, semiconductors and clean energy. Liza Tobin is the senior director of research and analysis for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project. Before joining SCSP, she served on the National Security Council staff as China director, where she led the development of multiple US strategies and policies related to China, including on trade and economics, climate and the environment, military issues, and China’s influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Before serving at the National Security Council, Ms. Tobin worked for more than a decade in various capacities as a China specialist for the US government, including as a senior adviser at the US Indo-Pacific Command and an economic analyst at the CIA, and in various roles in the private sector and academia. She holds an MA in international relations with concentrations in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, and a BA in China studies and biblical studies from Gordon College. Learn more about Elisabeth: https://dusp.mit.edu/people/elisabeth-reynolds Follow Elisabeth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/elisabeth-reynolds Learn more about Liza: https://itif.org/person/liza-tobin/ Follow Liza on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/liza-tobin-b9b902200

May 9, 202453 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Constance Hunter & Samuel Rines

Show from 05/03/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest economic data and market reactions. Prof. Siegel highlights the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain patience in policy adjustments amidst mixed economic signals, notably the unexpected benefits of subdued wage growth and soft payroll numbers, despite persistent price pressures in certain sectors. (12:08) The conversation then transitions to guests Constance and Samuel, who delve into economic forecasts and the impact of ongoing inflation trends on future Federal Reserve actions. Samuel emphasizes the need to pay attention to businesses rather than only focusing on what The Fed releases. Constance gives great examples of productivity around AI. The group tackles global economic conditions affecting markets today. They discuss energy prices all the way to international manufacturing shifts. Guests: Hunter holds a BA in Economics and Sociology from New York University, a master's degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Certified Business Economist designation. She is an expert in macroeconomic and industry analysis and is recognized for being among the first economists to forecast pivotal economic events, including the impacts of COVID-19 on the US and other global economies, the 2007 real estate and credit crisis, and the 2001 burst of the Dotcom bubble. Hunter joins AIG from KPMG, where she served as a chief economist since 2013 and a member of the growth and strategy leadership team since 2020. Previously, she has served as a deputy chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, where she helped lead the management of over $500 billion in fixed-income assets. Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed. Follow Constance on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/constance-l-hunter Follow Constance on (X)Twitter: @ConstanceHunter Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/samuelerines Follow Samuel on (X)Twitter: @SamuelRines

May 2, 202453 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jason Hsu

Show from 04/26/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel dive into this week's market dynamics, starting with a discussion on the unexpectedly low GDP report. Professor Siegel shares his concerns but offers a more optimistic outlook based on detailed analysis of positive economic data indicators, suggesting a better performance in the upcoming quarters. (14:52) Jeremy transitions to guest Jason Hsu of Reliant Global Advisors. The two focus their discussion on the investment landscape in Asia, particularly China and Japan. They assess the valuation of Chinese markets amidst geopolitical tensions. They continue by exploring broader implications for emerging markets, with a comparative analysis of regional investment strategies. Guest: Jason Hsu is the founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. Throughout his accomplished career, Jason’s commitment to academic rigor and investor advocacy have led him to research, develop, and bring to market investment strategies that create significant value for investors. At Rayliant, Jason is continuing that commitment by educating investors and offering products to transform the investment ecosystem in Asia and beyond. Prior to his current role, Jason was the co-founder and vice chairman of Research Affiliates. Learn more about Jason at: https://rayliant.com/team/jason-hsu/ Follow Jason on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu

Apr 26, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Rob Sluymer

Show from 04/19/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel begin the discussion by addressing the latest Federal Reserve's maneuvers regarding interest rates. Professor Siegel offers his insights, suggesting cautious optimism due to the strong job market, despite the Fed's conservative stance on upcoming rate cuts. He details how current economic indicators could lead to adjustments in future monetary policy, emphasizing the dual mandate of the Fed to monitor inflation and employment. (13:15) The conversation shifts to Rob Sluymer, Technical Strategist at RBC Wealth Management. Rob brings a unique perspective on the market, focusing on the S&P 500's potential through the lens of technical analysis and market cycles. He offers detailed forecasts, analyzing how long-term cycles could influence immediate investment opportunities and market trends, emphasizing the necessity for investors to recognize and adapt to these cycles for strategic planning. Follow Rob on X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/rsluymer?lang=en Follow Rob on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-sluymer-9a59a4b

Apr 19, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Aaron Dubin

Show from 04/12/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel, inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack. Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program. Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/ Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842

Apr 12, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Peter Berezin

Show from 04/05/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time. Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto. Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Apr 5, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Dan Ives

Show from 03/29/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday weekend with positive reflections on the market. Inflation numbers came out as expected. The Prof notes a surprise rise in personal spending and a decline in the housing prices. (7:20) Dan joins Jeremy and Chris Gannatti to discuss where we are in the current tech cycle. The group talks about the Metaverse, AI development and collaborations between Google and Apple. Jeremy asks if they think there will be competition in the infrastructure as time goes on. The three discuss the potential benefits companies get by investing in Nvidia. Dan and Chris also comment on overseas risks involved with tech and lack of demand from Asia. Guest: Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade. Learn more about Dan at: https://www.wedbush.com/analysts/daniel-ives/ Follow Dan on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8 Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on x(Twitter): @CGannatti

Mar 29, 202453 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: David Rosenberg

Show from 03/22/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week's market and Powels dovish announcement. The Prof states that the Fed believes trends are decreasing however he feels the economy is still moving along nicely. He notes that deflationary forces have begun to ease up. David joins to give his market opinion alongside the Prof as the two discuss their opposing views. (23:42) David continues with Jeremy to talk about how he forecasts the market with his business. Jeremy asks David about consumer sales and how it’s affecting some of the luxury brands. David touches on topics like the employment report, and recent comments from Bullard. He gives his case on why he loves the Japanese Market. David also talks about India as another alternative market to China. Guest: David is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. During this time, he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto. Learn more about David at: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Follow David on X(Twitter): @EconguyRosie

Mar 21, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Thomas Capasse

Show from 03/15/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dig in this week on the most current market information, starting off by talking about the CPI and PPI outcomes. The Prof states the market seems to have bottomed out and is not going lower. Tom and Professor Seigel agree that the commercial real estate market has really suffered. (13:31) Jeremy continues on with Tom who gives us a breakdown of what Ready Capital is all about. Tom talks through a normal transaction cycle and explains bridge financing. He comments on how interest rates have impacted the commercial real estate market. Jeremy asks about commercial mortgage REITs and the discounts people are seeing. Tom also gives us more details on how their SBA loans work and what pressures he sees in the banking community. Guest: Thomas Capasse serves as Chairman of our board of directors, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Capasse is also a Principal and co-founder of Ready Capital’s external manager, Waterfall Asset Management, LLC. Prior to founding our Manager, Mr. Capasse managed the principal finance groups at Greenwich Capital from 1995 until 1997, Nomura Securities from 1997 until 2001, and Macquarie Securities from 2001 until 2004. Mr. Capasse has significant and long standing experience in the securitization market as a founding member of Merrill Lynch’s ABS Group (1983—1994) with a focus on MBS transactions (including the initial Subprime Mortgage and Manufactured Housing ABS) and experience in many other ABS sectors. Mr. Capasse began his career as a fixed income analyst at Dean Witter and Bank of Boston. Mr. Capasse received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Bowdoin College in 1979. Learn more about Thomas at: https://readycapital.com/professionals/thomas-capasse/ Follow Thomas on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-capasse-6470782

Mar 15, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Art Berman

Show from 03/08/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by discussing this week's exciting market moves. The Prof says this week’s employment report is very good, revising the shocking report from January. He continues by diving into the Nvidia stock and his 10 year prediction confirmation. (11:17) Art joins Jeremy to discuss everything oil and energy. He begins by talking about energy blindness and energies overall underrepresentation in economic importance. Jeremy asks about natural gas, its excess production and Europe's involvement. The two discuss the Bakken break-even, if technology will increase production and drilling wells too close together. Art also talks about renewables and policies we are exploring that might not be the best. Guest: Art Berman is an energy consultant with 40 years in petroleum geology and a degree in Middle Eastern history. His comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, an expert witness, and a keynote speaker. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations. Learn more about Art at: https://www.artberman.com Follow Art on X(Twitter): @aeberman12

Mar 8, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jared Dillian

Show from 03/01/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin with an old saying “make the trend your friend”. The Prof gives us a detailed look at this week's market data. He continues talking about the interview he listened to of Austan Goolsbee. (11:41) Jeremy is joined by Jared as they discuss his book and current opinions on today's market. Jared goes into detail about his book on personal financing and why he decided to write about a stress free balanced approach rather than extreme suggestions. Jared emphasizes the fun of making more money instead of cutting expenses. He covers many topics from the housing market to car purchases and how it affects personal finances. Jared also covers student loans, saving and investing, holding onto gold and why bitcoin doesn’t work with his model. Guest: Jared Dillian is a writer, author, DJ, and speaker. His newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture, music and sex. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries. Learn more about Jared at: https://www.jareddillian.com/ Follow Jared on X(Twitter): @dailydirtnap

Mar 1, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Charles-Henry Monchau

Show from 02/23/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel jump right in to talk about the blow out week for tech. The Prof touches base on the job markets decrease and the mention of rate cuts by the Fed. Nvidia brought the entire tech stock back up this week with their demand for semiconductors. The Prof does not think that this is a bubble and that the evaluation of Nvidia is correct. (9:35) Jeremy is joined this week by Charles, CIO of Syz Group. The two continue by discussing the rise in tech in comparison to past tech bubbles. Jeremy asks Charles about the ESG mentality and if it needs to change. Charles gives his opinion on the Russia/Ukraine situation and how it may play out over the next few years. Jeremy dives into the sentiment of investing in Chinese stocks. Charles also discusses the state of currency around the world and bitcoin. Guest: Charles-Henry Monchau joined Bank Syz from FlowBank, where he was Chief Investment Officer and Chief Commercial Officer. Prior to this, he had been CIO of Al Mal Capital (Dubai Investments), Head of the Asset Allocation Team for the EMEA region at Deutsche Bank and held various C-level positions in Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. Charles-Henry has an Executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in Finance from HEC Geneva. He is also a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charter-holder. Learn more about Charles at: https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news/bank-syz-appoints-chief-investment-officer Follow Charles on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096

Feb 22, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Chris Whalen

Show from 02/16/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's episode discussing the big data on inflation. The Prof gets into detail on the reports, giving us an indepth look at the current market. The two also talk about the explosive moves in Small-Caps. (7:47) Jeremy is joined by Chris to talk about banks and the current situation in America. Chris talks about whether he would prefer to be net long or net short. The two discuss their opinions on big banking crisis issues from the past. Chris talks about the politics behind solving the banking problems and its troubled history. Jeremy brings up where Chris would rate banks in America and what issues they currently have today. Chris also deep dives into mortgages, the current home market, as well as the index he’s created and the services he provides. Guest: Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and writer who lives in New York. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. Christopher is the author of several books, is contributing editor at National Mortgage News, and edits The Institutional Risk Analyst. He appears in a variety of other publications and media. Chris is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA and is a Senior Advisor at J.V.B. Financial Group in New York. Learn more about Chris at: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Follow Chris on X(Twitter): @rcwhalen

Feb 15, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Daniel Peris

Show from 02/09/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off by talking about the light market week. The Prof notes that next week will be much bigger following the release of many important reports. He is confident that if the Fed continues to see the data slowing, they will lower rates. The Prof goes into detail on the tech market, the excitement around AI and how it has been trending recently. (9:59) Daniel joins the conversation with Jeremy to discuss dividends in this AI driven world. Jeremy asks Daniel about historical dividend by-backs and pivotal moments that caused people to turn away from them. Daniel talks about growth versus dividends. He explains how harvested capital gains are not the same as dividends. Jeremy asks Daniel about what types of yields he prefers to see in the markets. Daniel mentions geopolitics, his opinion on investing worldwide and his disapproval for government intervention in by-backs. Guest: Daniel Peris, Ph.D., CFA oversees dividend-focused portfolios for a major US asset manager. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history. Learn more about Daniel at: https://strategicdividendinvestor.com/about-the-author/ Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @HistoryInvestor

Feb 9, 202453 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jeff & Neil

Show from 02/02/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's discussion with a look at the latest jobs report. The Prof says the plunge in hours reported is only ever seen in recession times and stresses the importance of further research. The Prof says there is increased concern about the banks again but it appears to be an isolated incident. (10:16) Jeremy continues his conversation with Neil to talk about the Professor's comments on the current economy. Neil states that the severe weather is the cause for low hours this week and there should be an increase moving forward. Jeremey asks Neil what could be causing mass dissatisfaction for the economy among US citizens. Jeff joins the discussion to discuss the bond market and global economics. Neil comments on what the 5 to 7 year trend on productivity might be. The group gives their opinion on Small-Caps, commercial real-estate and bank lending, as well as bio tech and international markets. Guests: Jeff has been one of Wall Street’s most influential macro-analysts over the last quarter-century. His process assisted clients in navigating both the up and downside as well as the inherent risks associated with this business. As a member of Institutional Investor’s Hall of Fame, Jeff has helped legitimize technical analysis by employing a disciplined process reliant on data, history, and statistics, while discounting the narrative-based approach that remains so popular on Wall Street. His dedication to the business, unquenchable passion for markets and history creates a foundation that offers the flexibility to profit and protect. Jeff is known for his pragmatism and willingness to express both bullish and bearish views. As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta, As Head of Economic Research, leads our macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out of consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation and housing. Learn more about Jeff at: https://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/ Learn more about Neil at: https://www.renmac.com/neil-dutta/ Follow Jeff on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa Follow Neil on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/dutta-neil

Feb 2, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Juan Salerno

Show from 01/26/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegelbegin this week with the Prof describing the market as Goldilocks. Inventory build up may weigh on the first quarter says the Prof. The Fed will not be raising rates next week, but will also not be decreasing them. He also gives us his view on the political race, how it could affect the market and insights into what's going on in Argentina. (10:26) Juan Salerno joins Jeremy to discuss what truly is happening in Argentina right now with new leadership. Juan explains that the country will go into a recession due to policy reforms, but will come out hopefully stronger. Jeremy asks Juan about the strength of the economy and what they are focused on during the new regime. Jeremy shifts the conversation to energy and Argentina's future ventures in that sector. Juan talks about his position at Compass, what their client base is like, what they prefer to invest in and much more. Guests: Juan is a Partner of Compass, Chief Investment Officer and Director of Compass Argentina. He is the Portfolio Manager of fixed income funds domiciled in Argentina. Previously he was a Senior Equity and Fixed Income Analyst. Prior to joining the firm, he was Portfolio Manager at Grupo Galicia Seguros. He has also been involved in analyzing, pricing, and trading private debt and structured securities. Juan is a certified Public Accountant with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Universidad Católica de La Plata and an MSF from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Learn more about Luan at: https://cgcompass.com/en/team/ Follow Luan on LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/juan-miguel-salerno-8555705

Jan 26, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Liqian & Jeff

Show from 01/19/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's episode discussing how the market is hitting an all time high. They comment on the current labor market and upcoming layoffs. Jeff asks the professor about the current state of the Chinese Market. (06:03) Liqian and Jeff join to discuss in depth what is happening geopolitically across the world. Liqian covers the Taiwan election and how that will affect the world markets. Jeff asks her about the potential for stimulation in China and if it is necessary. Weniger joins in to comment on China’s current market state and how Taiwan's election and stress with North and South Korea could be affecting it. The group discusses TikTok, EV manufacturing, the Chinese infrastructure market and much more. Guests: Liqian Ren, Ph.D., joined WisdomTree as Director of Modern Alpha in 2018. She leads WisdomTree’s quantitative investment capabilities and serves as a thought leader for WisdomTree’s Modern Alpha® approach. Liqian was previously at Vanguard, where she worked for 12 years, most recently as a portfolio manager in the Quantitative Equity Group managing Vanguard’s active funds and conducting research on factor strategies. Prior to joining Vanguard, she was an associate economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Liqian received her bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from Peking University in Beijing, her master’s in Economics from Indiana University—Purdue University Indianapolis, and her MBA and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Liqian co-hosts a podcast on China and Asian markets with Jeremy Schwartz, WisdomTree’s Global Head of Research, and she is a co-host on the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets. Jeff has a B.S. in Finance from the University of Florida and an MBA from Notre Dame. He has been a CFA charterholder and a member of the CFA Society of Chicago since 2006. He has appeared in various financial publications such as Barron’s and the Wall Street Journal and makes regular appearances on Canada’s Business News Network (BNN) and Wharton Business Radio. Learn more about Liqian at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/liqian-ren Learn more about Jeff at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/jeff-weniger Follow Liqian on Twitter: @liqian_ren Follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffWeniger

Jan 19, 202453 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Eric Golden

Show from 01/12/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz begins by asking Professor Siegel about all the new data that has come out this past week. The Prof gives us a breakdown of all this new data stating that the economy keeps moving along positively. Jeremy asks the Prof about the Red Sea attacks and how the Fed should be thinking about raising rates during this time. (13:29 Eric joins Jeremy to talk about the current state of crypto and its overall asset class. He talks about the most recent fee war that occurred and why some brokers are still preventing trades. The two discuss the fear behind the criminal use of bitcoin compared to cash. Eric gives us his thoughts on zero fee ETFs, treating ETFs as if they are companies and whether there will be a large amount of crypto currencies as time goes on. Jeremy asks Eric how advisors should size crypto in their portfolios. Eric comments on Ethereum and the market's anticipation of its growth. Eric dives into Canopy and what the future holds for his company. Guest: Eric Golden is the founder and CEO of Canopy, a digital assets management platform for RIAs and Family Offices. Before pursuing digital assets full-time, Eric was the Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of Personal Bond Management (PBM) at Fidelity Investments. In this role, Eric created a new business to manage individual bond portfolios at scale. He founded the business in 2015 and launched it to the public in 2017. By March 2021, PBM grew to $18B in assets, across 23,000 clients and executed 2,000 trades per day with a team of only five people. Learn more about Eric at: https://us.money2020.com/agenda/speakers/eric-golden-s103-78716 Follow Eric on Twitter: @ericgoldenx

Jan 12, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Kevin & Chris

Show from 1/5/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start the year off by reviewing the holiday market. The Prof explains productivity growth as the difference between inflation and wage increases. He notes that next week's reports will give a better look into how inflation is doing currently, but everything looks positive. Kevin joins as co-host to ask the Prof about the current job market.The Prof finishes by giving us his prediction for the 10 year. (14:59) Chris joins Jeremy and Kevin to talk about the interesting opportunities in the private credit space. Chris explains how credit is becoming its own distinct asset class. Jeremy asks Chris to break down for the average investor where the yields would be on the index. Kevin and Jeremy bring up commercial real estate, mortgage rates and whether people should be concerned. Kevin gives us insight into how the portfolio reflects the risks of credit and the current market. Guest: Kevin Flanagan serves as Head of Fixed Income Strategy as part of WisdomTree’s Investment Strategy group. In this role, he contributes to the asset allocation team, writes fixed income-related content and travels with the sales team, conducting client-facing meetings and providing expertise on WisdomTree’s existing and future bond ETFs. In addition, Kevin works closely with the fixed income team. Chris Acito founded Gapstow in 2009 and is responsible for managing all client engagements. Prior to Gapstow, Chris was the Global Chief Operating Officer for Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group, which allocated $8.5 billion in client and proprietary capital. Prior to Investcorp, Chris enjoyed a ten-year career as a management consultant, beginning with Booz Allen & Hamilton's Banking & Capital Markets practice. In 1998 he joined John Casey, Kevin Quirk, and others to build a business strategy consulting firm which focused exclusively on the global investment management industry. Chris began his career as an economist. He served on the President's Council of Economic Advisers in both the GHW Bush and Clinton administrations, where his areas of expertise were financial markets and macroeconomic policy. He was also the Managing Director of the Center for Population Economics, a Chicago-based group dedicated to researching issues in health economics under the direction of Nobel Prize winner Robert W. Fogel. Chris holds a BA in Economics from Duke University and an MA in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is Board Chair Emeritus Trustee of The Peddie School in Hightstown, New Jersey. Chris serves on the investment committees of Peddie and The New York Community Trust. Learn more about Kevin: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/kevin-flanagan Learn more about Chris: https://www.gapstow.com/#team Follow Kevin on Twitter: @KevinFlanaganWT Follow Chris on LinkedIn: ​​linkedin.com/in/chris-acito-44414a9

Jan 5, 202452 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jim Bianco

Show from 12/22/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel end the year with a discussion on the Professor's prediction on what markets will do in the new year. The Prof gives his opinion on two strong topics about the Fed. He doesn’t believe there will be any slowing of the market however if it does the Fed is ready. Jim joins in to talk with the Prof about money supply. (15:23) Jeremy continues with Jim as they discuss Bianco Research, the new index his company has created and his outlook for 2024. Jim talks about the TIPS yield and how they’ve changed in the past few years. Jeremy asks Jim about his thesis on inflation being sticky. Jim breaks down how covid affected the Chinese economy. Jim gives his view on bond volatility and what’s depressing equity. Jim gives his thoughts on credits and where he feels the market will head going into the new year. Guest: Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades-long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Learn more about Jim: https://www.biancoresearch.com/about-us/ Follow Jim on Twitter: @biancoresearch

Dec 22, 202351 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Eric Biegeleisen

Show from 12/15/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel talk about the Fed this week. The Prof is surprised by how flexible the Fed has been. He states that this flexibility has shown promise for the markets future of a soft landing due to the previous rate hikes. The Prof gives his opinion on bond duration rates. If there is a recession, he says that bond rates will go down. (10:44) Eric joins Jeremy, beginning with his agreement to what the Prof has stated. Eric talks about what 3EDGE models their assets on and how they determine risk in their client portfolios. The two converse on how high US margins are compared to history and the rest of the world. Eric discusses how 3EDGE researches and builds formulas to predict future growth in the market. He talks about standout areas highlighted by the company's models and where they keep eyes on for future growth. They talk about gold and its importance in the market. The two cover a wide range of market assets and what 3EDGE views as important areas to track and who would benefit from their services. Guest: Eric Biegeleisen serves as Partner, Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Investment Committee Member at 3EDGE Asset Management. Eric is responsible for the research operations at 3EDGE. His research focuses on discovering and exploring the interconnectedness of global capital markets through quantitative and qualitative analyses. Learn more about Eric: https://3edgeam.com/team/ Follow Eric on Twitter: @EBiegs_3EDGE

Dec 14, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Uma Moriarty

Show from 12/08/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin today's show by covering all the data coming in from the last two weeks. The Prof states that the data is relatively weak, but not recession weak. There is no inflationary pressure that indicates further inflation. (9:21) Jeremy is then joined by Uma to discuss her view on the interest rate impact on the real estate market. She talks about the modern economy and how it relates to real estate and CenterSquare. Chris and Jeremy ask Uma about rental rates on data centers spaces, REITS and e-commerce logistic cycles. Uma talks about how CenterSquare structures technology in its warehouses. They also cover metrics related to the REIT and private real estate investing asset class. Guest: Uma Moriarity is the Senior Investment Strategist and Global ESG Lead for CenterSquare Investment Management. She focuses on investment strategy and leads thought leadership across the Firm’s public and private real estate platforms. She is part of the listed real estate investment team and serves on CenterSquare’s Private Real Estate Debt Investment Committee. Prior to joining CenterSquare, she spent three years in corporate strategy and planning at ExxonMobil in Houston. Learn more about Uma: https://www.centersquare.com/team-members/uma-moriarity/ Follow Uma on Twitter: @uma_moriarty Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Dec 8, 202353 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Liza Tobin

Show from 12/01/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel are back from the holidays this week to summarize how great November was. Professor Siegel gets into detail about Fed fund action, not only currently but an estimate into the future as well. (6:42) Liza joins Jeremy to discuss what is going on between the US and China. She covers topics of discussion between both governments and its effects on future markets. Liza talks about SCSP and what they do. The two discuss tech, social media and the risks against US interests. Liza explains the issue of moving infrastructure back to America and what needs to happen to succeed. Guest: Liza Tobin is the senior director of research and analysis for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project. Before joining SCSP, she served on the National Security Council staff as China director, where she led the development of multiple US strategies and policies related to China, including on trade and economics, climate and the environment, military issues, and China’s influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Before serving at the National Security Council, Ms. Tobin worked for more than a decade in various capacities as a China specialist for the US government, including as a senior adviser at the US Indo-Pacific Command and an economic analyst at the CIA, and in various roles in the private sector and academia. Learn more about Liza: https://itif.org/person/liza-tobin/ Follow Liza on Twitter: @Liza_D_Tobin

Dec 1, 202353 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Brian Drubetsky

Show from 11/17/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss their views on the Fed and inflation this week. CPI and PPI came in below expectation. The Prof states the economy is not falling apart but it should be watched closely. He believes the Fed should avoid raising interest rates at this time. Brian joins in to state he agrees with the Prof and to ask him about GDP and if productivity will help grow the trend. (9:32) Jeremy continues his conversation with Brian as they begin by discussing small cap value opportunities and what he does at Schafer-Cullen Capital. Brian gets into detail on why small caps generally outperform over the long term which benefits their portfolios. Jeremy asks Brian about small cap risks and where flows are headed. Brian talks about the outlook of real estate, the housing market and the love of consumer spending. Brian finishes by talking about utilities, his founder's book and an overview on the future of Schafer-Cullen. Guest: Brian Drubetsky joined the Firm in 2013 and currently serves as the Firm's Co-Portfolio Manager on the Small Cap Value Equity strategy and is a member of the Investment Team. Previously, he was a Research Analyst at Manatuck Hill Partners and a Research Consultant at Spencer Capital, both long-short equity hedge funds. He also held Associate positions at Neuberger Berman and KPMG. Brian received his M.B.A. from Columbia Business School in 2009 where he participated in the Value Investing Program and graduated magna cum laude from George Washington University in 2002 with a B.B.A. Learn more about Brian: https://www.cullenfunds.com/Brian-Drubetsky/ Follow Brian on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/brian-drubetsky-494a692

Nov 17, 202351 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Richard Bernstein

Show from 11/10/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week by discussing the Profs views on current market activity. He mentions some noteworthy changes in the job market, a jump in inflationary expectations, and which reports to watch for next week. He says it is way too early to predict what will happen in December. (5:59) Richard Bernstein joins the Professor and Jeremy at The Union League in Philadelphia to discuss many facets of the market today. Key topics from the interview include the equity risk premium, stocks versus bonds, small caps, what sectors RBA likes, and bond portfolios. Richard talks about where his firm stands and how they construct their portfolios. Richard states globalization is contracting and that the United States future lies in becoming independent again. They also discuss AI and long term interest set by the government. Guest: Richard Bernstein is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. As CIO, Mr. Bernstein is a member of the firm's Investment Committee which manages multi-asset, global equity, and fixed income ETF strategies for financial advisors and institutions. Learn more about Richard: https://www.rbadvisors.com/our-people/ Follow Richard on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/richardbernstein

Nov 10, 20231h 14m

Behind the Markets Podcast: Paul & Tim

Show from 11/03/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week with a current market overview. Professor Siegel states that the market didn’t fare too well for lower rates. He goes over the current labor market report which has dropped. He discusses Powell and the market increases and decreases. The Professor confirms he still believes there is no fear of a recession. Productivity rebound could reverse the current market state. (10:01) Paul and Tim join Jeremy today to discuss the banks. Paul talks about TARP 2.0 and his view on troubled asset release programs. Tim joins the discussion adding his view on the current banking industry and where Fed funds are going. They talk about Fed loan programs, extensions and Fed insensitivity to the banking system. Tim covers risks related to interest rates and the differences between today and the past. Paul talks about what he does at Bridge Tree Partners and his day to day goals. Tim and Paul discuss their views on small and large banks. Guests: Paul Graham is a programmer, writer, and investor. In 1995, he and Robert Morris started Viaweb, the first software as a service company. Viaweb was acquired by Yahoo in 1998, where it became Yahoo Store. In 2001 he started publishing essays on paulgraham.com, which now gets around 25 million page views per year. In 2005 he and Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, and Trevor Blackwell started Y Combinator, the first of a new type of startup incubator. Since 2005 Y Combinator has funded over 3000 startups, including Airbnb, Dropbox, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2019 he published a new Lisp dialect written in itself called Bel. Tim Coffey was a Vice President and Research Analyst at FIG Partners LLC, a premier investment banking and research firm specializing in community banks. Before joining FIG Partners, Tim was a Research Analyst at Green Street Capital Management. Prior to that, he covered the banking industry for several business publications in San Diego, California. Tim has more than 20 years of financial services experience. Tim received a B.A. degree in Economics from San Diego State University and both an M.B.A. degree and an M.S. degree in Financial Analysis from the University of San Francisco. Learn more about Paul: http://www.paulgraham.com/bio.html Learn more about Tim: https://www.janney.com/meet-janney/people/timothy-coffey Follow Paul on Twitter: @paulg Follow Tim on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timothy-n-coffey-a4857b7

Nov 3, 202353 min

Behind the Markets Podcast - Michael Green

Show from 10/27/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week's discussion with mixed reactions. The market data is still strong this week according to the Professor. He mentions that the money supply is showing weakness and could be of concern for robust economic growth. He notes that agreements with car manufacturing companies will help keep plants running. He talks about the new speaker elected by the government and how that will affect the market. Michael joins the professor, discussing wage increases and inflation. (16:00) Jeremy continues on with Michael to discuss his career and his current role at Simplify. Michael goes into detail on what Simplify does and the irony of their company name. They discuss EFTs, betting on high rates, and the real estate market. Michael talks about the complexity of bonds changing allocations. He discusses his opinion on option market day trading and the futures market. Jeremy asks Michael about macro strategies and how he positions portfolios at Simplify. He also talks about the high yield market, credit default swaps, and the index. Guest: Michael Green joined Simplify in April 2021 after serving as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Logica Capital Advisers, LLC. Prior to Logica, Michael managed macro strategies at Thiel Macro, LLC. Michael founded Ice Farm Capital, a discretionary global macro hedge fund seeded by Soros Fund Management. From 2006-2014, Michael founded and managed the New York office of Canyon Capital Advisors, a $23B multi-strategy hedge fund based in Los Angeles, CA, where he established their global macro strategies, managing in excess of $5B of exposure across equity, credit, FX, commodity and derivative markets. Michael has been noted for his work as a public speaker and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder. Learn more about Michael: https://www.simplify.us/leadership#!michael-green-cfa Follow Michael on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/michael-green-9a15142

Oct 27, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jack Farley & Dave Goodson

Show from 10/20/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by summarizing current rate reports that are being released. Professor Siegel doesn't think The Fed will raise rates on November 1st. Mid December will bring new unemployment rate reports to watch for. He states there may be some caution going into the fourth quarter but nothing serious yet due to interest rates. The market is under pressure but he thinks the stronger economy will bring in stronger earnings. Jack asks the Professor about bonds and at what point are the rates attractive as a long term investment. (11:00) Dave Goodson joins Jeremy Schwarts and Jack Farley as they discuss the Professor's thoughts. Dave goes in depth on his current view of the market. Jeremy asks about option adjusted spreads and if the government dysfunction contributes to lack of confidence. The group discusses real estate markets and the credit risks associated with it. Dave talks about the riskiest sections of the market right now and where he thinks the best return would be. They cover the current state of banking and the opportunities that came from the latest banking crisis. Guest: Jack Farley covers traditional finance markets as the host of "Forward Guidance". Jack previously worked at Bloomberg, Dealbreaker, and Real Vision, where he hosted over 100 long-form interviews with investors, analysts, and financial professionals. Jack graduated from Brown University with a degree in economics, and lives in NYC. Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Learn more about Jack: https://blockworks.co/speaker/jack-farley Learn more about Dave: https://institutional.voya.com/investment-capabilities/single-sector/securitized-credit Follow Jack on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jack-farley-40b394112 Follow Dave on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/david-goodson-7146245

Oct 20, 202351 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Samuel Rines

Show from 10/13/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the economic uncertainties, such as rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential government shutdowns. Professor Siegel believes that while there are warning signs, the data does not indicate an imminent recession, attributing low unemployment claims and expected seasonal economic boosts as positive signs. He also argues that inflation is better than official numbers suggest, citing alternative metrics considering lagging factors like housing costs in the CPI calculation. (12:22) Samuel Rimes agrees with Professor Siegel that the Fed is unlikely to change rates soon due to volatile data points affecting monetary policy. On the topic of energy and inflation, Rimes highlights how the global energy landscape has evolved significantly, allowing for quick shifts in supply chains, and notes that U.S. oil production has been surprisingly robust due to technological advances, which is keeping oil prices lower than one might expect given current geopolitical tensions. They discuss how temporary external pressures like deficits and liquidity should be watched. Regarding margins and investment strategies, Samuel points out that cost benefits arise from improved supply chains and moderated costs in commodities and labor. Guest: Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed. Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines Follow him on Twitter: @SamuelRines

Oct 14, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Daniel & Anton

Show from 10/06/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz with his weekly review of the current market. They cover the most recent jobs report and the strength it’s suggesting. Prof. Siegel thinks that the only real hurt will be felt in the housing market. He doesn’t believe there will be a rate hike in November. They also talk about this weeks big drop in oil. He states that real GDP growth looks stronger going into 2024. (9:22) Daniel and Anton join Jeremy with Daniel starting off by talking about the increase in rates and the strength in the market. They discuss the impact AI technology will have on the increased productivity rates over the next 10 years. Jeremy asks them both how new technology will impact the inequality gap. They discuss roadblocks being experienced in increasing AI technology production. They talk about robotics and advancements in similar areas as AI grows. Jeremy brings up the topic of disruptive technology and how advancements can in fact hurt workers. They finish by talking about the government policies surrounding these tech enterprises. Guests: Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. He has recently worked on studies addressing the types of occupations that are most exposed to machine learning, measuring the value of AI skill sets to employer firms, and adjusting productivity measurement to include investments in intangible assets. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. Much of his work involves applying cutting-edge data science techniques to analyze datasets from financial market data sources, online resume sites, and job postings. Anton Korinek is a Professor at the University of Virginia, Department of Economics and Darden School of Business as well as a Nonresident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Research Associate at the NBER, a Research Fellow at the CEPR and the Economics of AI Lead at the Centre for the Governance of AI. He received his PhD from Columbia University in 2007 after several years of work experience in the IT and financial sectors. He has also worked at Johns Hopkins and at the University of Maryland and has been a visiting scholar at Harvard University, the World Bank, the IMF, the BIS and numerous central banks. Learn more at: https://oid.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/rockdi/# https://www.korinek.com/ Follow Daniel on Twitter: @danielrock Follow Anton on Twitter: @akorinek

Oct 6, 202352 min

Behind the Markets: Howe Ng

Show from 9/29/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz beginning with some more data this week on the market. He feels the economy is doing very well, especially after the trade report came out. A government slowdown may challenge the strength of the market, but the numbers are strong. He talks about his article on Barron’s. They dive into the future of housing and the job market as well. (10:11) Howe joins Jeremy to talk about the private market index and the group he’s a part of that makes data a bit easier to attain. The index is updated once a week for anyone to view. He discusses the ability to compare the private and public markets using these reports. Howe explains how they chose who to include on their index and why. Howe and Jeremy discuss the private market's current state and how it compares to the public market. He explains how transactions are made through Forge as well as who the buyers typically are using the platform. Howe talks about vision for what this index can do in the future. Guest: Howe Ng leads data and analytics at Forge overseeing the research & development of market insights, investment research and product analytics. Howe has more than 18 years of buy-side institutional asset management experience. He previously held roles in systematic active equity portfolio management and ETF product strategy at BlackRock and additional leadership roles at Nipun Capital and Barclays Global Investors. Learn more at: https://forgeglobal.com/ Follow Howe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/howeng

Sep 29, 202351 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Future Proof Festival

Show from 9/22/23 Jeremy Schwartz asks Prof. Siegel his views on the current weekly market activity and his reaction to The Fed. (8:05) Jeremy joins Matt and JC live from the Future Proof Festival to talk about Halo Investing and the markets. JC starts off by explaining how they approach the market and read trends. He talks about the latest presidential climate and how it could affect the market into the future. JC continues with his view on current market dynamics. Matt joins in by highlighting what his clients are experiencing during this market activity at Halo Investing. JC continues with his opinion about the dollar's impact on trends, regional banks and common mistakes investors make. Matt talks more about Halo, its platform and its structured notes. He discusses perception of notes and how he handles the key challenges. Matt continues to discuss the education of notes and how they can help clients make better investments. Jeremy announces the collaboration between Halo and Wisdom Tree. Matt and Jeremy talk about the collaboration, its uses and the excitement they both have for this new project together. Guests: JC Parets is the founder of Allstarcharts.com and is one of the most widely followed Technical Analysts in the world. In 2008, JC earned his Chartered Market Technician designation (CMT). His work has been featured regularly on Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, ABC, CNN, Wall Street Journal and many other financial media outlets around the world. JC specializes in finding the most opportunistic risk vs reward propositions while at the same time bringing a top/down approach to the marketplace whose wide spectrum is rivaled by few. In 2017, JC Launched Technical Analysis Radio, a podcast dedicated to Technical Analysis and the Technicians who practice it. Matt Radgowski has extensive work experience in the financial industry. Matt currently serves as the Chief Operations Officer at Halo Investing, a position they have held since 2022. Prior to this, they worked at Morningstar, where they held various roles including Head of Advisor Solutions from 2020 to 2022 and Chief Operating Officer, Investment Management from 2013 to 2020. Before joining Morningstar, they served as the Managing Director at Horizon Investments from 2012 to 2013. Matt also held the positions of Managing Director at Wilshire Associates from 2006 to 2012, Vice President at Ibbotson Associates from 1999 to 2006, and Regional Vice President at Aegon from 1996 to 1999. Matt attended the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign from 1992 to 1996, where they earned a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting. Learn more at: https://haloinvesting.com/ https://allstarcharts.com/about/jc-parets/ Follow Matt on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/matt-radgowski-8852b2b7 Follow JC on Twitter: @allstarcharts

Sep 22, 202358 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Robert Novy-Marx

Show from 9/15/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz with a breakdown of a very big week for the market. He does note an increase in inflation but it shouldn’t result in an increase for next week. He also discusses the large rise in oil, noting long lines at gas stations and the impact the rise will have. He previews the upcoming week with a prediction that it will be hawkish. He finishes with a quick comment about the Arm IPO. (12:03) Professor Robert Novy-Marx starts off by talking about his educational past and how he got into his finance career today. He gives us his thoughts on value research and why he has confidence in it as a factor. He also details that the underperformance of value stocks is due to sector tilts. Jeremy asks Robert about his thoughts about the research on intangible assets and tech investments that are not capitalized. He goes into detail on the difference between gross profits versus net income. They discuss how Robert will be presenting at the Wharton School’s Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research at its 2023 Frontiers in Quantitative Finance Conference next friday. He talks about the paper he will be presenting called Reversals and the Return to Liquidity Provisions. Guest: Professor Robert Novy-Marx earned the Fama/DFA Prize for the best capital markets/asset pricing paper in the Journal of Financial Economics (2012 and 2013), the Smith-Breeden Prize for the best capital markets paper in the Journal of Finance (2011), the Spängler IQAM Prize for the best paper in the Review of Finance (2011), and the Mill's Prize for the best paper in Real Estate Economics. Novy-Marx is also a former professional triathlete, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research and taught at the Booth School of Business before coming to the Simon School. Learn more at: https://simon.rochester.edu/digital-measures-faculty/robert-novy-marx Follow Robert on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/robert-novy-marx-b931a6174

Sep 15, 202353 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jeff & Liqian

Show from 9/8/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz and their colleagues Jeff and Liqian with his reaction to the softer tones of the market this week. He feels that China’s threat to remove Apple is a bit out of proportion which has affected the market. Although the market is not doing strong, he feels we aren’t anywhere near a recession. He doesn’t think the Fed should increase rates in September, nor does he think they will. He also explains how rising bond correlations affect the market. (12:42) Jeff begins by describing his take on the current job market and great moderation. He talks about what charts he thinks will cause a drop in the future job market and why. Jeremy also asks him to analyze the current housing market and the banks. He ends with his view on the equity markets and his suspicion of a looming recession. Liqian discusses how she feels about China’s move to step away from foreign owned companies and the over exaggeration of the Apple drop. She tells us what she thinks about the US/China relationship and if it will improve in the near future. She talks about her recent travels through China which allows her to give us a view of what is happening on the ground there right now. She also dives into investments moving to China, whether it’s a good idea and its rising popularity. Guests: Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets. Jeff has a B.S. in Finance from the University of Florida and an MBA from Notre Dame. He has been a CFA charterholder and a member of the CFA Society of Chicago since 2006. He has appeared in various financial publications such as Barron’s and the Wall Street Journal and makes regular appearances on Canada’s Business News Network (BNN) and Wharton Business Radio. Liqian Ren, Ph.D., joined WisdomTree as Director of Modern Alpha in 2018. She leads WisdomTree’s quantitative investment capabilities and serves as a thought leader for WisdomTree’s Modern Alpha® approach. Liqian was previously at Vanguard, where she worked for 12 years, most recently as a portfolio manager in the Quantitative Equity Group managing Vanguard’s active funds and conducting research on factor strategies. Prior to joining Vanguard, she was an associate economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Liqian received her bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from Peking University in Beijing, her master’s in Economics from Indiana University—Purdue University Indianapolis, and her MBA and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Liqian co-hosts a podcast on China and Asian markets with Jeremy Schwartz, WisdomTree’s Global Head of Research, and she is a co-host on the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Learn more at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments Follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffWeniger Follow Liqian on Twitter: @liqian_ren

Sep 8, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jack Farley

Show from 9/1/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz this week with his analysis of the new employment report and the fade of fear in the labor market. He also discusses inflation and the housing market fueling his positive outlook on the current total market trend. (08:38) This week's guest, Jack Farley, starts off by asking Prof. Seigel about the downward revisions in non-farm payrolls as well as the historical significance in the 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate. He talks to us about the connection between the current labor supply and the threat of a recession. He dives into the rise in net interest rates and who is affected by the burden of these rate hikes. He gives us his key take-aways from what he’s learned about the current banking system and the commercial re-estate market. Guest: Jack Farley covers traditional finance markets as the host of “Forward Guidance”. Jack previously worked at Bloomberg, Dealbreaker, and Real Vision, where he hosted over 100 long-form interviews with investors, analysts, and financial professionals. Jack graduated from Brown University with a degree in economics, and lives in NYC. Learn more at: https://blockworks.co/speaker/jack-farley Follow him on Twitter: @JackFarley96

Sep 1, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Daniel Di Martino

Show from 8/25/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz this week to discuss his disappointment in the Powell speech as well as the Nvidia stock drop. They discuss the surprising drop Nvidia had after a large spike in the market. (09:12) Daniel Di Martino begins by telling us what he does at Columbia University, his move to America and more about his personal story. He discusses what he thought about the most recent debate that occurred and his view on the economic policies discussed. Daniel enlightens us on the history of Venezuela's dark economic history. It’s rise and fall from being one of the wealthiest countries to what it is today. He talks about the unlikely hood that the world will move away from the US dollar. He also talks to us about the drug problem at the US border, immigration policy issues and the unnecessary fear behind an increase in people moving to America. Guest: Daniel Di Martino is a third-year PhD candidate in Economics at Columbia University. He graduated with honors from Indiana University in Indianapolis in 2019 with a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing a Ph.D. in Economics at Columbia University in New York City where his research focuses on immigration. Learn more at: https://www.danieldimartino.com/ Follow him on Twitter: @DanielDiMartino

Aug 25, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Julia Pollak & Peter Boockvar

Show from 8/18/23 Prof. Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz begin by highlighting the significant surge in 10-year and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields to their highest levels in decades. They discuss the remarkable increase from negative rates a few years ago, along with the equity premium's alignment with historical averages, reflecting overall strength in the economy. With upcoming talks from Powell, no significant changes are anticipated, emphasizing a continued commitment to data dependency. (10:24) Peter and Julia then join the discussion to examine the nuanced economy and the current state of the labor market. The conversation shifts to the impact of rising interest rates on small and medium-sized businesses and the factors contributing to inflation, highlighting cautious spending and the indication that higher inflation may persist. They also delve into the quality of labor statistics, challenges with response rates in surveys, biases in capturing data, and a bullish outlook on energy, underscoring potential reasons for a rise in oil prices. Guest: Peter Boockvar is solely an investment advisor representative of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC, a registered investment adviser and separate entity from LPL Financial. Peter serves as Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group. Learn more at: https://www.bleakley.com/about/our-team Follow him on Twitter: @pboockvar Guest: Julia Pollak is Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter. She leads ZipRecruiter's economic research team, which provides insights and analysis on current labor market trends and the future of work. Learn more at: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/ Follow her on Twitter: @juliaonjobs

Aug 17, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Dom Rizzo

Show from 8/11/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz to dissect the current state of the economy. They discuss everything from jobless claims and inflation to the roles of major companies like Tesla and Ford. With an optimistic yet cautious tone, Prof. Siegel offers a glimpse into what the future may hold for the markets. (10:07) Dom Rizzo, a portfolio manager for T Rowe Price, discusses his career and the global technology equity strategy with particular focus on the semiconductor industry. He highlights Nvidia's powerful GPU technology and its linchpin status, predicting the AI chip market's significant growth. The conversation also covers the potential for a second source in the market, such as AMD, and the need for continuous innovation within the semiconductor space. AI is viewed as a major productivity boost, impacting areas like natural language processing and cybersecurity. Large companies with data and distribution are expected to benefit, with AI augmenting tasks rather than replacing them in the short term, offering efficiency gains across various industries. Guest: Dominic Rizzo is the portfolio manager of the Global Technology Equity Strategy. He is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., and T. Rowe Price International Ltd. Learn more at: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/au/en/bios/dom-rizzo.html Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Aug 11, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Doomberg

Show from 8/4/23 Doomberg begins by telling us about who they are and what their newsletter is about. The writers are able to stay anonymous and write about topics including economy, climate and policy without fear of losing their careers in the fields they specialize in. He tells us that climate happens to be the most controversial topic with carbon reduction being the most heated debate. He dives deep into the importance of nuclear power and how it is the future of power for the world. He covers the controversy surrounding it, countries actively expanding their nuclear programs and success stories that can be used as examples to persuade fear based opinions. He talks about investing into different areas of energy. He also discusses the gold market, bitcoins future and train derailments. Guest: Doomberg is a subscription based newsletter highlighting the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions. The Substack articles are written by a small group of former executives, free to write without boundaries. Learn more at: https://doomberg.substack.com/ Follow Doomberg on Twitter: @DoombergT

Aug 4, 202353 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Torsten Slok

Show from 7/28/23 Prof. Siegel kicks off with his take on the recent news conference from the Fed. He believes that we are not as close to a recession as previously thought, due to the stability of some essential commodities (10:28). Torsten agrees with the Professor, highlighting how the Fed is slowing the economy down with interest rate hikes. He explains his concern that there could be a huge shift in foreign asset allocations, Japan currently being the largest with over a trillion dollars in US treasuries. Torsten and the Professor go back and forth on market rate hikes and what the potential outcome of the market could be. They discuss which investments are better to hedge at this point in time. Torsten talks about regional banking systems and his research into that area. Guest: Torsten Slok is Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo. Prior to joining in 2020, Torsten worked for 15 years on the sell-side, where his team was top-ranked by Institutional Investor in fixed income and equities for ten years. Previously, he worked at the OECD in Paris in the Money and Finance Division and the Structural Policy Analysis Division. Before joining the OECD, Torsten was with the IMF in the division responsible for writing the World Economic Outlook, and the division responsible for China, Hong Kong, and Mongolia. Learn more at: https://www.apollo.com/about-apollo/our-people/torsten-slok Follow Torsten on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/torsten-slok-8a7520a2

Jul 27, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Alejandro Lopez-Lira

Show from 7/21/23 Prof. Siegel calls in live from his cruise to share his big takes on today's current market. He explains to us his shift of opinion towards the Feds and what he is looking into to suggest market recovery (13:25). Alejandro starts by telling us what he researches and studies at the University of Florida. He explains his use of AI to calculate rates and how it could be used by companies to mitigate risks. Through his research, he explains his beliefs on using many different signals to attain the data you need from machine learning. He elaborates on how performance factors can greatly affect outcomes of these data sets. The group discusses the results of testing Chat GPT’s ability to calculate these data sets and whether it’s a useful tool for market predictions. He discusses the future research and advancements in using AI models to add in finance decisions. Guest: Alejandro Lopez-Lira is an Assistant professor of Finance at Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. He holds a PhD in Finance from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His research covers topics in Empirical Asset Pricing, Machine Learning and Textual Analysis. Learn more at: https://alejandrolopezlira.site/ Follow Alejandro on Twitter: @alejandroll10 Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Jul 20, 202351 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Warren Pies & Nitesh Shah

Show from 7/14/23 Prof. Siegel begins with the positive news of inflation coming in below expectations. He highlights the strength of the real economy, citing low initial jobless claims and strong consumer sentiment. Market sentiment is optimistic, with money flowing back into the market and a favorable outlook for investors. (00:12:50) Warren focuses on the potential margin contraction in 2024 earnings due to wage pressures and interest expenses, expressing concern about the excessive optimism in the market. He also mentions that while AI may enhance productivity in the long term, its efficiency gains might not materialize in time to support the 2024 earnings picture. Nitesh discusses the disappointment in China's reopening and the absence of substantial stimulus measures to drive growth. While China has been strategically accumulating raw materials and investing in grid expenditures for the energy transition, questions arise about its ability to maintain demand growth, especially in the oil market. Guest: Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Warren is a frequent contributor to the media including participating in the 2013 Barron’s MLP Roundtable discussion, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and RealVision. In 2014, Euromoney Institutional Investor awarded Warren the Padraic Fallon award for his research on the Shale Revolution. Outside of the research world, Warren has worked as a practicing attorney specializing in regulatory approvals for various industrial activities and projects. He has also owned, operated, and sold a portfolio of self-storage properties to a national REIT. Learn more at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/ Nitesh Shah is Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow Nitesh on Twitter: @NiteshShahWT

Jul 14, 202352 min

Behind the Markets Podcast: Simon Johnson

Show from 07/07/23 Prof. Siegel talks to us about the new market data and the current unemployment rate reports this week (10:35). Jeremy and Chris are joined today by Simon who discusses his new book Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. They talk about the importance of AI for human-kind and its comparison to previous technologies. Simon gets into detail on the positive implications of AI but warns against the potential negatives. They debate whether people should support purchasing goods from countries that do not have safe guards for surveillance tech. Simon gives his opinion on the tech elite, government involvement, as well as job creation and tax inequality tied with advancements in technology. Guest: Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he is head of the Global Economics and Management group. In 2007-08 he was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and he currently co-chairs the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council. In February 2021, Johnson joined the board of directors of Fannie Mae. Johnson’s most recent book, with Daron Acemoglu, Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity, explores the history and economics of major technological transformations up to and including the latest developments in Artificial Intelligence. Learn more at: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/simon-johnson Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-johnson-17b40645/ Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Jul 7, 202352 min