Airline Weekly Lounge

What’s it gonna take to fix Air France/KLM? The airline group has a number of problems—from labor inflexibility to a soft French economy—all in a very competitive part of the world. But there are reasons for hope: Gulf carriers could one day slow their growth, Air France/KLM still has the gold standard in joint ventures and, heck, labor concessions are always a possibility. Air Canada improved its 2015 operating margin from 6% to 11%—no easy task in a country that’s seeing economic and currency headwinds. The bad news for Copa Airlines is that its operating margin dropped from 18% to 7%. The good news is that Copa still has a profit margin at all, as it’s an airline heavily exposed to troubled Brazil and Venezuela. And why doesn’t Virgin America want to offer a basic economy seat option?

Finnair, Norwegian and Icelandair all had rather forgettable off-peak fourth quarters, but not because of the chilly weather they are all enduring. Rather, each has a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Finnair’s challenges include exposure to Asia and transatlantic competition, but there’s hope in seat densification. Norwegian is painfully exposed to Norway’s struggling oil industry, but they have a grow-baby-grow strategy. And Icelandair is perhaps doing the most with less. After all, the airline has never had a profitable fourth quarter until 2015. Icelandair has managed to get a good portion of its revenues in strong-currency countries and keep its costs in a weak-currency country. Hint: That’s a good thing. We also consider Spirit’s ticket revenue pressures and how Hawaiian is handling an up-and-down Japanese yen.

Singapore Airlines swung back to solid profits in 2015. Does this turnaround mean the airline is returning to its former glory, not seen since 2010? Or are low fuel prices just making everyone look good? Korean Air and Asiana continue to struggle with profit margins that barely stayed in positive territory. And the two Korean carriers are facing a new threat by way of some possible deregulation from China’s government. India’s Jet Airways is seeing a dramatic improvement in its profits—could this carrier also be returning to its former glory? WestJet managed a nice fourth-quarter profit despite currency problems and a home market vulnerable to oil prices. And lastly, we consider Delta CEO Richard Anderson’s retirement.

JetBlue’s big fourth quarter was kind of a big deal. Low oil prices essentially mean that every airline is making money right now, but JetBlue’s 21% operating margin is about more than just oil prices. The airline is changing, and the results are visible in the earnings. American Airlines set a record for annual profits in 2015—a triumph no doubt, even if the airline’s revenue picture is as ugly as a motel painting. United may have Asia’s slowdown to contend with, but American has Brazil where “crisis” is way too weak of a word. And lastly, in Japan, All Nippon (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) have a bit of a rivalry of their own, with JAL posting exemplary fourth quarter earnings but ANA making great competitive strides.

Where Delta’s revenues were relatively resilient, United’s are rapidly receding, at least in the fourth quarter. In Episode 24—informally “part two” of U.S. earnings season—we discuss the sources of United’s revenue declines and the many moves the airline can make to restore them. Two other airlines, meanwhile, seem to have all the right moves. Southwest is enjoying being safely cocooned in the healthy U.S. domestic market, and Alaska Airlines is enjoying watching new routes bear fruit almost overnight. We do manage to break out of the U.S.A., booking passage to India, where IndiGo and SpiceJet notched solid fourth quarters. In short, everybody is making money!

Delta kicked off earnings season with—yawn—another record-breaking fourth quarter highlighted by a pre-tax profit that starts with a “b” (and ends with an “illion.”) The success is coming from a lot of baskets including cheap oil, operational performance and the fact that Delta’s revenues are holding up somewhat better than United’s and American’s, who report later. We try to break down Delta’s stellar quarter. Meanwhile, Air France/KLM, an airline group that weathered some tough headlines in 2015, appears to be feeling pretty good in 2016. In South America, LATAM, the most powerful airline in its region, tries to gain more power with two very large joint ventures. And should WestJet or Air Canada be worried about NewLeaf, the ultra-low-cost carrier that might actually fly this spring?

Regardless of whether it’s up or down, India’s airline market tends to be one of thrills and spills. And right now, we’re seeing both—IndiGo is providing the thrills, Air India the spills. Meanwhile, Jet Airways and SpiceJet are holding their own. Believe it or not, that’s a step forward. Not too long ago, it was all misery. Are we seeing the beginning of a stabilizing trend fueled by, well, cheap fuel? Or will growing competition from the likes of Vistara and AirAsia India keep it forever a tumultuous airline market? Also, we look at Korean Air’s difficult situation and offer our two cents’ worth of advice. Plus, has the U.S. market reached a bottom on ticket prices?

Ultra-low-cost carriers like Frontier Airlines are facing in 2016 a whole different animal—a beast that we call “fare compression.” In fact, America in 2016 might see a first-time experiment in which the ultra-low-cost model goes up against the forces of low fuel, a good economy and healthy legacy competition. In this week’s episode we also discuss Ben Baldanza’s departure from Spirit Airlines. We explore ponderous questions like “Would you rather be SAS or Finnair?” and “What’s the longest turboprop route in the world?” Plus, we hear from one of the authors of the new Delta book. It was an easy “get” seeing as how he’s a permanent resident in the Lounge.

Mexico is finding joy in a low-cost carrier renaissance as Volaris, Interjet and VivaAerobus are all growing and profiting. But the profits aren’t being distributed equally. Why is one carrier performing so much better than another? Also, how long can these airlines keep growing before they run out of elbow room? North of the border, Virgin America meanwhile is shifting to a high-growth gear. Canada’s Air Transat has taken up a new strategy. And it appears Qatar Airways won’t be the launch customer for the A320neo—does it matter? Lastly, in this special double-sized holiday episode, we spend a few minutes looking back at 2015.

Shouldn’t Doug Parker be dancing in the end zone? He is, after all, the CEO of a mega-airline with mega-profits at a time of economic strength and falling fuel prices. But even this airline has challenges. In this week’s episode, we ask him how American plans to remain a profit champion in the face of new and growing competitive threats. As it happened, the interview coincided with the big announcement of American's plan for an international premium economy class, a first among the U.S. Big Three. We asked about that, as well as Parker's thoughts on alliances, fuel hedging, Gulf carriers, the big upcoming changes to the AAdvantage frequent flier plan and much more.

The number of challenges facing Korean Air could fill an A380. Nonetheless the airline remains quite profitable. Korean Air’s prime competitor, Asiana, has not been as fortunate, and we discuss the differences. Meanwhile, Aegean Airlines is doing just fine—more than fine, even—in a very tough economic environment. No stranger to a tough economic environment, Brazil’s Azul is trying to hold its own by again selling a piece of itself. Also, what’s so special about the U.K. leisure carrier Jet2.com?

Not so surprisingly, easyJet wrapped up a strong earnings season in Europe with some strong numbers of its own. We looked at what’s working for easyJet but also why it can’t quite top rivals Ryanair or Wizz Air. Then it’s pretty much all downhill from there. Most airlines can top Air Berlin right now. Thai Airways is struggling with overcapacity and political unrest. Though things have improved significantly, Kenya Airways is still struggling with terrorism, Ebola and the fact that it’s tough to be in an emerging market right now. And LATAM and Gol are coping in the face of Brazil’s cratering economy. And lastly, desperate to end on a lighter note, we turn to Thanksgiving in America and touch on the realities (and myths!) of holiday air traffic.

More than anything, Spirit Airlines’ business model is built on low fares, which it uses to stimulate demand and fill its planes. But what happens when fuel prices drop, enabling airlines like JetBlue to drop fares too? In a wide-ranging interview, we asked Spirit’s CEO Ben Baldanza about such “fare compression.” We also asked him about the possibility of Spirit chasing corporate traffic (like Ryanair). How will A320-NEOs change Spirit’s network? Other topics included Spirit’s pilot contract and the notion that Spirit is “stealing traffic” from other airlines. Lastly, we learned why it’s “crazy” to call Spirit a “no-frills” airline and why Baldanza loves the Tonka-truck yellow livery. This is our first CEO interview in The Airline Weekly Lounge. It went so well that we plan to make this a regular feature.

Whew! The busiest week of earnings season has us hustling. We kick off our around-the-world sprint with IAG, the airline group that is British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and more recently Aer Lingus. While IAG led Europe’s Big Three in profits, Lufthansa nonetheless posted its own all-time record, and Air France/KLM was no slouch. Still benefiting from its restructuring, Japan Airlines had fantastic profits, while All Nippon Airways had merely a fine quarter. We also check in on China’s Big Three, Icelandair, Aeromexico and Jet Airways. Plus, why is Spirit Airlines not all that concerned about its profit margin? That’s a lot of airlines in a single podcast.

Well that didn’t last long. American Airlines, the biggest carrier in the world, set a new quarterly profit record, with a $1.9b net profit in the third quarter. Of course, there are some technicalities at play here, but it broke Delta’s two-week old record. Maybe even more astonishing was United’s $1.7b figure. Has United finally narrowed the performance gap between itself and Delta and American? Meanwhile all of these airlines look like a bunch of pikers compared to Alaska Airlines. Southwest did just fine, but not as well as Volaris (by operating profit margin anyway). Plus we check in on Tigerair, Vietnam Airlines and Norwegian.

How did Delta achieve its record-breaking quarter? We touch on some of the root causes, including Delta’s push for cheap aircraft and near-perfect operations. Also, we discuss Delta’s plan for flat or zero capacity growth in the fourth quarter. And will Delta hold on to its shiny new earnings record for longer than two weeks? Meanwhile, contrary to a lot of other airlines, JetBlue is seeing an increase in unit revenues. And American Airlines pulled off its reservation system migration with aplomb. And lastly, we revisit the industry 30 years ago from the seat of a certain DeLorean.

Lufthansa is facing competition from Ryanair, Wizz Air, easyJet, Air Berlin, Vueling, Turkish Airlines, Emirates and probably your brother. Competition is not a new thing, but the severity is growing. Meanwhile, Air New Zealand resides in a small country in a location that’s not exactly the stuff of dreams to a network planner. But still it makes plenty of profits. How does it do so well? American Airlines is migrating US Airways onto AA’s reservation system—no small feat. Plus we talk about capacity increases by WestJet and Air Canada in Calgary, and Spirit and Frontier in Atlanta, and capacity decreases in Brazil by LATAM and Gol. And of course, we discuss the Jennifer Aniston ad.

In airline years, Southwest is certainly old enough to be put out to pasture. Instead, the massive airline is making money like never before. Could some of its contrarian moves, like no bag fees, actually be working? Or is it something else? Oil prices are driving low fares around the world, and that is driving traffic figures despite even some sluggish economies. One airline seeing remarkable traffic numbers is Volaris in Mexico. Meanwhile, Russia’s Aeroflot saw a surprise turn of events as the plug was pulled on its absorption of troubled Transaero.

Posting a $54m profit in its second quarter, Frontier Airlines has joined the ranks of America’s most profitable airlines. Frontier and America’s other ultra-low-cost carrier, Spirit, are both highly profitable and have big growth ambitions. As long as oil prices remain low, they should go far. Meanwhile, Norwegian is taking a stab at the low-cost longhaul game in the transatlantic market. Is this for real this time, or is Norwegian simply riding a tailwind of cheap fuel and a robust U.S. economy? Meanwhile, European carriers are bullish about their current quarter and the next one. And with the economy continuing to slide in Brazil, what does it mean for Azul’s longhaul ambitions.

Ethiopian Airlines is growing aggressively—and apparently profitably—while other African carriers are struggling. The airline’s centralized location seems to give it a big advantage over other African carriers. Meanwhile, Ethiopian doesn’t face a lot of competition within Africa. Have its fortunate location and smart business moves made it the biggest carrier in Africa? In India, where there are way too many seats flying around to easily do business, Indigo is nonetheless making money—perhaps even more than Ethiopian. We also discuss the U.S. Export-Import Bank and, of the world’s 100 biggest airports, which are the fastest-growing and slowest-growing (if not shrinking) … and why?

Can United Airlines’ new CEO overcome the carrier’s inherent challenges? United is big, powerful and, at the moment, very profitable. But it’s also underperforming Delta and American. When United and Continental merged, it was supposed to be “checkmate.” And so far it has been—but for the wrong team. Does it matter that the new CEO is not an airline guy? He’s not the first CEO with a railroad background, but still, all the other U.S. carriers have industry veterans at the helm. Plus, in this week’s Airline Weekly Lounge, we look at “hybrid” airlines, we digest our quarterly earnings scorecard and we discuss why Delta and American are—surprisingly—ending their interline agreement.

Canada may be a cold place, but right now its two major airlines are cruising along with comfortable profit margins. Still, what we’re seeing from WestJet and Air Canada is a far cry from what U.S. carriers are experiencing. Why is there such a disparity of results within North America? Also, we head to the Korean peninsula to talk about Asiana and Korean Air, both of which endured a number of challenges in their second quarter, including a MERS virus outbreak and a weakening cargo industry. And if that weren’t enough tumult, China is now devaluing its currency. Plus, we touch on Finnair, Jet Airways and Air Berlin.

The creditors of bankrupt Skymark Airlines chose All Nippon Airways (ANA) as its equity partner going forward. This of course leaves Delta—again!—without a dance partner in Asia. With that news, we take the opportunity to consider the condition of Japan’s long-time duopoly. What does this mean for Japan Airlines (JAL) and Delta’s Asia business? Virgin Australia is having a tough time while Philippine Airlines is having the time of its life. And in the Western world, Frontier Airlines is putting Humpty Dumpty back together again—profitably this time. We’ll explain in this week’s edition of The Airline Weekly Lounge.

With most European airlines having now reported second-quarter earnings, the picture is filling in. But it’s a mosaic—not a portrait. Some carriers did well. Some did lousy. One thing we learned from Ryanair and Wizz Air is that it’s good to be an ultra-low-cost carrier in Europe right now. As for the legacy carriers, it’s not all bad—especially if your home economy is in the UK and you’re somewhat sheltered from the euro. Case in point: IAG, parent company of British Airways, Iberia and Vueling, which had a decent quarter. The Lufthansa Group plodded. Air France/KLM struggled. And Icelandair seems to be enjoying life in its own little corner of the canvas.

American Airlines doesn’t hedge its jet fuel, and now it’s enjoying the fruits of that somewhat contrarian strategy. Is AA onto something here? Is fuel hedging a smart play? Will other airlines mimic AA and reject hedging altogether? Those are some of the questions I ask Seth Kaplan in our second episode of The Airline Weekly Lounge. Also, while AA was on the right side of the fuel hedge bet, Air France/KLM was on the wrong side. The company was also on the wrong side of the euro-dollar bet and those two forces combined to further punish the already-limping airline pair. Back in America, Spirit Airlines had a great quarter by its own standards—but mediocre by its standards. Part of its difficulty was due to a softening revenue picture. Is such heated competition in the U.S. a surprise so soon after consolidation and with high oil prices such a recent memory? Lastly, we discuss WestJet, the subject of this week’s Airline Weekly’s cover story. The Canadian airline is clearly not afraid to changes its business model. We look at WestJet’s endeavors and more in this week’s episode.

Our inaugural episode of the Airline Weekly Lounge went live today. Within it, Seth Kaplan and I discuss this golden age for U.S. aviation. Can profits get any better? Along those lines, Delta reported earnings last week. They were exemplary, of course, even despite wrong-way fuel hedges. And Norwegian released its second quarter report as well. Norwegian is, of course, most interesting because of its experimentation with long-cost long-haul flying. It’s always interesting to hear how that’s going. And as we discussed in this week’s cover story of Airline Weekly, Emirates is facing real headwinds. In the Lounge podcast, we discuss Emirates’s situation a little more deeply. And, I asked Seth whether Turkish Airlines’s break-neck growth rate is sustainable. Our first podcast—it’s sure to be a collector’s item. So, do check it out.