Airline Weekly Lounge

Rising costs aren’t keeping Delta down. Delta overcame a 33% year-over-year increase in fuel costs to produce more than $1.2b in net profits (excluding special items) and a handsome 16% quarterly operating margin. In fact, despite the increased costs, Delta almost matched last year’s 18% Q2 margin. And the airline thinks it can return to improving margins by year’s end. Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine Norwegian’s results being more different. Norwegian chalked up a negative 3% operating profit margin, a ghastly result for the usually strong second quarter. JetBlue ordered CS300s—except now we’re calling them A220-300s. That deal surely made Airbus and its new partner Bombardier happy. In turn, Boeing is partnering with Embraer. What does this shakeup to the aircraft manufacturer space mean?

Frontier Airlines has had one of the most topsy-turvy histories of any airline, and its first-quarter earnings report was no exception. Sporting a wild animal on each tail, the airline has been soaring in recent years. In 2017, Frontier had the seventh best operating profit margin in the world. But something happened in Q1 2018, as its margin was cut in half. Meanwhile, Air France/KLM searches for a CEO. Also, how important is it that United Airlines—by a wide margin—gets more revenue from Asia than Delta and American? Norwegian continues to lose money and remains, for the moment, without a buyer to bail it out. But at least Norwegian isn’t Fastjet, which notched a negative 55% operating profit margin in 2017.

Things haven’t gotten better in Mexico. Although Aeroméxico is at least coping better than its domestic competitors, all of which posted negative first-quarter margins in the double-digits. To make matters worse, construction of Mexico City’s much-needed new airport might be suspended as soon as July. North of the border, Delta and Southwest are seeing more cost pressures in the second quarter. Lastly, America is getting a new airline called Moxy. Adding to the excitement is that the man behind the project, David Neeleman, is known for inventive business models such as JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul. Sure enough, from what we know, Moxy appears to have some unique qualities.

Despite a 29% year-over-year increase to its labor costs, Ryanair still posted a positive profit margin in the first quarter. Ryan’s eastern European counterpart, Wizz Air, meanwhile faced an even more daunting 43% rise in labor costs and handled it with equal aplomb. Scandinavian Airlines is plodding along, but so are a lot of other legacy carriers in Europe. For the moment, that’s okay. Doing much less than okay is El Al, an airline suffering a big loss in its first quarter despite Tel Aviv enjoying terrific growth in tourism. In the U.S., Delta and United say they don’t fear high oil prices or low-cost longhaul carriers. Should they? Lastly, airBaltic looks for a suitor, and Aeroflot takes a step backward.

For the moment, WestJet is the more profitable carrier. But in recent years, Air Canada has closed the gap and, in the first quarter of 2018, we see signs that Air Canada—after years of giving chase—might overtake its long-dominant rival. Emirates appears to be emerging from its malaise, but can it return to its former glory? AirFrance/KLM continues to struggle with its unions. Lufthansa had its best first quarter in a decade. And IAG, the airline group that includes British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and Level, continues to dazzle. However, IAG’s brilliance hasn’t proven alluring enough to capture more than 5% of Norwegian.

Revenues for U.S. carriers remained terrifically healthy in the first quarter, and everybody made money. But rising labor and fuel costs generally shrunk year-over-year profit margins. United, which continues to trail Delta and American in profitability, did a pretty good job of preserving its margin. Profits slid a bit more at American, but it was especially buoyant in Latin America, where AA is the leading U.S. carrier. One airline that saw rather grisly margin deterioration was Alaska as fuel, labor and maintenance cost increases severely outpaced revenues. JetBlue and Spirit both did okay, but one was happier than the other. Southwest and Hawaiian posted handsome 12% margins in the off-peak quarter. Meanwhile, Allegiant was in a class by itself, posting a 19% first-quarter profit margin.

For a second straight year, Delta’s operating profit margin has fallen year-over-year in the first quarter. The reason for the decline, once again, is rising costs. The good news: Rising revenues—from nearly every corner of Delta’s network—propelled the airline to a solid 8% operating profit margin. One of the rising costs is, of course, fuel. Are fuel prices putting a damper on earnings overall? IAG seems interested in expanding its empire, having purchased a small stake in Norwegian and considering a full takeover. Lion Air, meanwhile, is purchasing planes… lots and lots of planes. In the U.S., Allegiant came under fire over safety concerns. Lastly, Frontier is adding 69 routes this month alone.

Numbers were put to the misery South African Airways has been experiencing when, last month, the airline finally reported earnings for its fiscal year ending in March 2017. Those numbers included a gut-wrenching negative 9% operating profit margin on the year. “Crisis” isn’t too strong of a word. What is SAA doing to turn things around? Elsewhere, it’s steady-as-she-goes for Cebu Pacific, which again is sitting among the world’s profit leaders. The Indian government has solicited bids for a 76% stake in Air India. Any taker would get the surprisingly-profitable Air India Express but would also have to assume a considerable amount of debt. Plus, the comeback continues at Kenya Airways. And lastly, will Berlin’s new airport ever open?

Air France/KLM and Lufthansa have a lot in common, including the fact that both distantly trail IAG (the parent company of British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling) in terms of profitability among Europe’s Big Three airline groups. What does IAG have that the others don’t? Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic turned in a profitless 2017 partly because of hurricanes. The fiesta has fizzled in Mexico right now as overcapacity, a weak peso and political concerns made it a miserable 2017 for the airlines there. Aeromexico can at least chase money overseas. Volaris has not been so fortunate. Hopefully, Volaris can make a comeback like Copa and Turkish Airlines. Both carriers have gone from tears to cheers in recent years.

Life is good in Australasia—especially if you’re Qantas or Air New Zealand. Both carriers are enjoying a bit of a golden age that stems from good management and some macro tailwinds. Meanwhile, Virgin Australia, seemingly unable to catch those tailwinds, drifted toward a disheartening 2% operating profit margin in 2017. Scandinavia’s SAS, meanwhile, had a negative margin that really wasn’t disheartening, because it was a small loss (-3%) and came during the airline’s always-difficult fourth quarter. Avianca managed to profit despite a painful pilot strike. And finally, Seth Kaplan caught up with Qatar Airways Vice President of the Americas Günter Saurwein to chat about the new airline's business-class product and much more.

Not only does Ryanair keep on rolling, it seems to be gaining speed. Its full-year 2017 operating profit margin will almost certainly be the world’s best after every airline has reported. Ryan-like Wizz Air is also among the world’s profit leaders despite paying a lot more for fuel than last year. Korean Air and Asiana saw their China problem solved in Q4, and both received a lift from cargo and won appreciation. Air Canada and WestJet are trying just about everything to compete against each other, and it’s working—for the moment. Spirit is delivering solid profits, although they aren’t Spirit-like. Meanwhile, fellow Scandinavian carriers Norwegian and Finnair likely have divergent views on 2017—one was glad to see it go, while the other likely wished it would never end.

With the bulk of U.S. airlines having now reported fourth quarter earnings, what has unfolded is largely a success story. 2017 wasn’t as good as 2015 or 2016, but it was generally good. Gone are the exhilarating margins of 25% and 27%. Instead we’re seeing healthy margins of 17% and 19%. Delta continues to set the pace for the Big Three. United continues to trail its peers, and that has led to some head-turning growth plans. American saw revenues surge in Dallas, Phoenix and its transatlantic market. Southwest overcame a fuel hedge reckoning to deliver strong results. Alaska appears to be coming down to Earth. JetBlue, which saw some of its Caribbean markets decimated by hurricanes, nonetheless, had a good quarter. Allegiant delivered disappointing results by its standards, but the airline still bested all U.S. carriers that have reported in Q4. And while it continues to enjoy sunny results, Hawaiian may be facing more competition in 2018.

Delta’s 2017 profits were down slightly from the glory days of 2015 and 2016. But make no mistake: This airline is performing very well. Consider that fuel prices increased 23% in the fourth quarter, and the airline was still slightly more profitable in the quarter year over year. The transatlantic market is performing well. The Asian market is performing well. The South American market is performing better. And that’s all before you get to Atlanta, which is one of the most valuable pieces on the worldwide airline chessboard. For a little more color on Delta’s positioning around the globe, this episode includes an interview with Steve Sear, Delta’s President of International and Executive Vice President of Global Sales. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

Just a few years ago, the often-troubled SAS was merely inches away from seeing its light burn out permanently. Since then the airline has rallied. This past October the airline completed its best fiscal year in two decades. Is the airline merely surfing the buoyant European economy? Or is it building long-term success? Finnair is also enjoying a brilliant year. Icelandair is coping with growing competition. And the Air Berlin parts sale is largely settled. In the U.S., Spirit announced that in 2019 it will again part ways with its CEO, which happened just a couple years ago. Frontier had a pretty solid 2017, but it didn’t launch an IPO. Lastly, Delta kicks off earnings season this week.

Jet Airways had a pretty mediocre third quarter. Still, there are plenty of signs of hope for the often troubled airline. In fact, Jet has posted 10 consecutive profitable quarters. India’s low-cost carrier IndiGo, meanwhile, is raking in double digit profit margins. And SpiceJet—an airline that fairly recently had buzzards circling above it—had its best third quarter ever. Both major airlines in South Korea have seen their profits tamped down by a diplomatic spat between their country and China. Fortunately both Asiana and Korean Air enjoyed robust growth in cargo revenue, which kept things from getting too ugly. Meanwhile, Kenya Airways is quietly regaining its footing. And lastly, we take a quick look ahead to 2018.

European low-cost carrier easyJet isn’t doing as well as competing LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air. But make no mistake: easyJet is doing well. The airline’s 20% operating profit margin for the April-through-September period puts it among the most profitable carriers in the world at the moment. In the U.S., Delta and Alaska Airlines have been waging a battle for Seattle for years. And more recently, Delta and JetBlue are brawling in Boston. Is it possible all three airlines are making money at these highly contested airports? LATAM continues to rebound from the Brazilian recession. Avianca had a good summer despite labor strife and ending service to Venezuela. Finally, we close this episode looking at some growing and slowing airports.

The third quarter is usually a splendid time for airline profits in Europe, and this year has been no exception. Ryanair is more than surviving its recent bout of operational difficulties, having turned in a stellar earnings report. Europe’s Big Three all improved year-over-year with IAG posting its biggest quarterly profit margin to date. Air France/KLM and Lufthansa are enjoying a slowdown in encroachment by the Gulf carriers. Icelandair and Finnair are making the most of their warm months. And Norwegian at least made money—just not enough. Air Canada continues to edge out its rival WestJet, but both were highly profitable. The same could be said for rivals Japan Airlines and All Nippon, with JAL winning that competitive and profitable race. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

With most of the U.S. airlines having reported third-quarter earnings, it’s now clear that rising revenues aren’t keeping up with rising costs. While every U.S. airline fell victim to this condition, some are weathering it better than others. United and American Airlines were a couple of the “others” stumbling in Q3—at least compared to Delta. Neither hurricanes in Florida nor the horror in Las Vegas helped Allegiant, but it was a 19% increase in operating costs that really hurt profits. Spirit saw $40m wiped out by hurricanes. Southwest and JetBlue both maintained margins near last year’s level, but JetBlue’s hurricane problem could be a fourth quarter story with Puerto Rico’s slow recovery. Things are good at Alaska Airlines, despite some transcontinental trouble. Lastly, Hawaiian saw year-over-year profits dip so mildly and starting from such great heights that one might think there’s no trouble in paradise. Then why did Hawaiian’s stock plummet last week?

Despite being dinged by rising costs, Delta opened the third-quarter earnings season with its customary show of strength. Revenues rose 6% on just 2% growth, and it posted a 16% operating profit margin. While things aren’t quite as good in Europe, airlines there have much to look forward to, namely the elimination—one way or another—of Monarch, Air Berlin, Czech Airlines and possibly Alitalia. Is that enough to lift other European carriers? Lufthansa seems especially confident. It’s looking to not only lose a competitor in Air Berlin but also gain planes for its Eurowings unit—and it’s placed a bid for parts of Alitalia. Meanwhile, Bombardier might have found a solution to its Boeing problem by—wait for it—partnering with Airbus. Lastly, Southwest appears to be at last headed for Hawaii. No doubt the mai tais will be nice, but can the LCC compete there?

The food scene and the tequila are great in Mexico. The airline industry? Not so much—at least at the moment. Everybody lost money in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter, only one airline—VivaAerobus—did merely okay. What has happened to the usually high-flying Volaris? Even Interjet has outperformed Volaris in the first half. And despite lackluster success, these airlines are growing like gangbusters. Meanwhile, American Airlines goes to great lengths to demonstrate that less seat pitch doesn’t necessarily mean less legroom. Frontier, despite outward appearances, is enjoying perhaps its best results ever. Some of the smaller Gulf carriers are surging. And, lastly, there’s trouble in Thailand.

Jet Airways didn’t give up the ghost. Instead, it rose from the hospital bed and plodded toward recovery, and today the Indian airline is the proud owner of a profit streak of nine consecutive quarters. How did Jet avoid its near-death experience? Speaking of near death, Air Berlin is watching its planes get repossessed, its pilots strike and its time run short. Meanwhile, easyJet is interlining with Norwegian, WestJet and surely others to be named later. Why is this a particularly good move? Also, why are some U.S. airlines retreating from Cuba, while others are running toward it? Lastly, United is now forecasting a severely diminished third quarter, and the reasons are many—and most are solvable.

Cathay Pacific has seen all its oxygen sucked out of the room by the hyper growth of the Chinese carriers. Is there anything to be done? Sometimes waiting is the best option. Australia has two major airlines with two very different stories to tell. While Qantas is enjoying a golden age, Virgin Australia is a tragic tale in the making. Meanwhile, Air New Zealand, taking advantage of some of the same forces lifting Qantas, had a second quarter it could be proud of despite a 21% increase in fuel costs. Air Canada and WestJet are benefiting from a strong home economy, but the aggressive growth of both airlines might be stunting profits a bit. Lastly, Allegiant is looking for profits not just in the sky, but in real estate.

After losing $300m in 2016 as a result of some horrific exposure to terrorism and political tumult, things are looking up for Turkish Airlines. In its second quarter, the airline posted a 5% operating profit margin and with that likely will turn a profit for the full calendar year. How did Turkish do it? Other airlines facing some political duress include Korean Air and Asiana. South Korea’s two major carriers are caught in a crossfire of political tension among the U.S., China and North Korea. Nonetheless, both managed to grow second-quarter profits year over year. In Europe, Lufthansa, IAG, and Air France/KLM are all enjoying what seems to be a rising tide. But none of them is enjoying it as much as Ryanair.

United is still trailing its peers, but can it catch up? That’s the question we weigh first in this episode. In the second quarter, American Airlines bested United with a 16% operating margin versus United’s 14%. One thing that went right for AA: Latin America. One thing that went wrong for United: Asia. Meanwhile, little is going wrong for Alaska Airlines, which is enjoying life in all the right markets at the right time. JetBlue’s transcontinental routes, which used to be a vulnerability, are now making a mint for the airline. JetBlue even beat mighty Spirit by a whisker. Allegiant did fine despite an eye-popping drop in its profit margin. And, lastly Southwest was again a profit leader with its very conservative approach.

The airline is on such a roll that not even a grouchy demagogue can stop Delta. The Atlanta-based carrier posted a better second quarter than it did last year, and it leaves Delta with at least a slim shot of having its best year ever. Low fuel prices were a defining factor for the industry during the quarter, and Delta took full advantage. But it saw success on the revenue side too. Not all airlines were so lucky, including Norwegian, which posted a slightly negative operating margin during a quarter it really needs to be making money—a lot of money. Things are even more dire at South African Airways, although SAA has one thing Norwegian doesn’t have: a state sponsor. And Air France pilots agreed to allow the airline to create a low-cost unit. But is that even a good idea?

Terror attacks… a blockade… Alitalia… The first half of 2017 has been interesting—even against the airline industry’s high standard in that department. In just a 30-minute episode we attempt to unpack the first half of 2017. Despite a lot of excitement, the most significant story of the year—low oil prices—is really rather mundane, but still a very big deal. For instance, it means the U.S. earnings bonanza might be more sustainable. Europe is enjoying one of its better years in recent memory. Gulf carriers are cutting capacity, which might (or might not) be the start of a seismic change in the industry. Kenya Airways is back on its feet, while South African Airways is on it back. New entrants are riding an economic resurgence in South America. Lion Air, VietJet and Air Asia are ensuring capacity remains high in the ASEAN region. And that’s all before we get to China, which continues to be the 800-pound panda in the room.

So this is happening: A major international airline faces a blockade. We admit it—this is a new one for us, with little to no history as a guide. Nonetheless, Qatar Airways faces a travel and trade embargo from four nearby countries, which overnight wiped 18 destinations off Qatar’s route map and essentially propped up a legal wall in the airspace to the south and west of Doha. This hardship—and it surely is one, despite management’s defiant swagger—comes at a time when all three major Gulf carriers are enduring a downtrend. Qatar’s newly released 2016 results certainly lacked luster. And how will the blockade affect Emirates and Etihad? Elsewhere, Southwest, while not facing a blockade, is stepping into what appears to be a multi-party knife fight in Fort Lauderdale with the likes of JetBlue, Delta and Spirit. Lastly, with the airshow in Paris underway, we discuss a few aircraft (both real and imagined) including the B797, the B737 MAX-10 and the “A380 Plus.”

Ryanair was one of just three individual airlines in Europe to post an operating profit in the first quarter. The success came not only by way of the airline’s juggernaut of a business model, but also because Ryanair was one of the few to see a year-over-year decline in fuel costs. One European airline had an even better Q1 than Ryanair. British Airways chalked up an 8% operating margin in the historically weak first quarter. Air France/KLM, by its own standards, had a good quarter, in part because of its operational performance. Wizz Air lost a little money, but that’s nothing to worry about as the LCC expects great success this summer. Other items discussed include the Alitalia death watch and whether terrorist attacks in the U.K. will nullify recent traffic gains.

Having just weathered a once-in-a-generation economic crisis, the airlines of South America just enjoyed a smooth first quarter. All the major South American airlines profited, and some even posted margins to brag about. But in Mexico, things were miserable. All four major carriers there lost money in the quarter, and some did so in a ghastly fashion. In fact, Volaris, who’s been a leader of the pack in recent years, is the country’s biggest loser so far in 2017. Meanwhile, Aeromexico managed well under the circumstances. Two culprits for the Mexican malaise were the pummeled peso and Easter hopping over to the second quarter this year. Plus, we talk about the effect new aircraft are having on airlines and how profit sharing is moving the industry from a fixed-cost business at least a few inches closer to a variable-cost industry.

The earnings picture for U.S. carriers in the first quarter was much worse than last year’s Q1—but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t good. It was indeed good—and good is good. Their success comes while wrestling with rising labor and fuel costs, and fickle demand. Allegiant continues to lead, and with confidence surely brimming, it’s buying new planes and slowing growth. American is benefiting from improving conditions in South American and at its Dallas-Fort Worth hub. Despite a big profit decline, Southwest posted a double-digit profit margin. JetBlue had a particularly bad fuel bill. Spirit is enduring an operational mess. And Alaska did just fine despite some bad weather.

Delta saw its operating profit margin slashed severely in the first quarter compared to last year’s Q1. Nonetheless there are plenty of reasons to smile—that’s how good things are at Delta right now—including beating rival United Airlines, which posted a much smaller profit. But the game isn’t over, and United has plenty of valuable cards to play, including improvements to its hub connections and operations. Also, what do the first few earnings reports tell us about the overall U.S. airline market in 2017? Canada's WestJet, meanwhile, has announced plans for its own ultra-low-cost carrier. Is this purely a defensive move? Is it smart? Will they even go through with it? And lastly, Alitalia workers rejected a restructuring plan. Could this mean the end for Italy’s long-time flag carrier? At the very least, it’s a reasonable question.

The merger of Alaska Airlines and Virgin American is now well under way and begs the question: How is the integration taking shape? In a word: rosy. Of course, Alaska will be sacrificing the Virgin brand. But Alaska’s management says it’s finding more synergies on both the cost and revenue sides than expected. One of the more interesting moves is that Alaska won’t be joining the Big Three and JetBlue in providing a lie-flat product on transcontinental routes. In other news, Norwegian is adding two new routes out of London Gatwick. While Virgin Atlantic reported a third consecutive annual profit in 2016, that streak might end in 2017. Lastly, Cathay Pacific reported its first annual loss since 2008 and there are, unfortunately, a few reasons that make a turnaround tough.

When is a $2 billion annual profit disappointing? Answer: When you’re a giant airline group like Lufthansa, and $2 billion amounts to a mere 5% operating margin—and that lackluster result comes despite fuel costs dropping 16% year over year. But there are a few signs of hope. Meanwhile, American Airlines is purchasing a $200-million stake in China Southern. Frontier Airlines and Silver Airways are ending their short-lived Cuba service. And LATAM, still recovering from Brazil’s economic and currency collapse, is fighting two other battles—a cargo malaise and increased competition. Nonetheless, South America’s largest airline did enjoy improved annual profits year over year.

Once again we consider the ongoing demand problems in Turkey. The numbers are in, and they’re not pretty. Turkish Airlines posted a $300 million loss in 2016. Pegasus Airlines chipped another $50 million loss, a comparably bad number. But there are signs of hope. One of those signs could be the recent decline in oil prices. If this is the beginning of a downward trend, many—but not all—airlines around the world will rejoice, especially in the U.S. Pop quiz: What do the giant, mature airports Amsterdam and Seoul Inchon have in common? Answer: They’re both growing relatively fast. Why? Also, what does the upgauging trend mean for the A319-NEO and B737-MAX? And we close the show with a look at the weather—seriously. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

With its fourth quarter results and a standout 2016, IAG, the airline group that includes British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vueling, continues to separate itself from the other two members of Europe’s Big Three airline groups. And leading the way was IAG’s still rather new acquisition, Aer Lingus, which had the highest annual operating profit margin of all the IAG units in 2016. Posting even better numbers was Air New Zealand, which saw record profits for the year. Nearby, Qantas seems to be enjoying a golden age of its own. Meanwhile, there’s nothing golden about a weak peso for Mexican carriers, although Aeromexico clearly is weathering it better than VivaAerobus.

Air France/KLM had some good news in 2016. For one thing, its Transavia unit broke even. Also, KLM made a decent profit. But the story is rather disappointing from there, with the group posting a mere 4% operating margin for the year. Could some positive revenue trends turn 2017 around? Air Canada and WestJet together have become quite a rivalry. Depending on where you put the decimal point, Canada’s two dominant carriers tied in the 2016 profit race as Air Canada closed the gap. Finnair, Virgin Australia and Norwegian all turned in lackluster performances for the fourth quarter and 2016 overall. Meanwhile, Copa, Gol and Azul are all slowly but surely putting their Brazil problems behind them. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

Europe certainly has its share of struggling airlines, but Ryanair, easyJet and Wizz Air are not among them. And for Ryanair and Wizz, fourth quarter earnings simply topped off a triumphant 2016. (easyJet has yet to report on its fourth quarter.) In the U.S., Spirit’s fourth quarter numbers were great—just not great for Spirit, as the hunter has become the hunted. Meanwhile all those LCCs and ULCCs were bested in 2016 by Alaska Airlines, a carrier that’s never been happier to call Seattle home. And in Asia, South Korea’s two biggest carriers—Korean Air and Asiana—are persevering despite a slowing home economy and competition from Japanese and Chinese carriers.

Japan Airlines is enjoying a charmed life right now. How good is it? In 2016, JAL was the most profitable of the large global airlines outside the U.S. All Nippon Airlines is also doing pretty well. ANA has narrowed the gap between it and JAL, which is still benefiting from the retrenching that followed its 2010 bankruptcy. But both are facing revenue pressures. Meanwhile, Avianca chose United as its dance partner in the western hemisphere. What that dance will look like still remains to be seen. Lufthansa is feeling good about its longhaul premium economy product. Indigo saw profit margins cut in half but still has plenty to smile about. And Jet Airways? Well, at least they have a profit margin. And lastly, Allegiant posted a ho-hum 20% margin in the fourth quarter. That was down considerably from the year before but still will likely end up being among the best in the world.

While the revenue story has improved for U.S. carriers, the cost story has become a headwind. Still, as American Airlines demonstrated in its fourth quarter results, costs are a headwind that can be overcome. With that, AA joined Delta and United in delivering solid fourth quarters and downright strong full-year results. And things only got better from there. Southwest delivered a higher profit margin than the Big Three despite new labor contracts and higher fuel costs. JetBlue continues to ride its strong Boston base and healthy transcontinental markets to spectacular heights. And then there’s Hawaiian Airlines—the only carrier (of those reporting so far) who didn’t see costs rise faster than revenues. It’s all smiles so far in the U.S. earnings season, but Hawaiian’s smile might be brightest.

By just a tenth of a percent, United’s fourth quarter operating profit margin bested that of Delta—and likely that of American, which reports later—making United, for the quarter, No.1 among the Big Three U.S. carriers. So, has the natural order shifted from United being a perennial laggard to leader? We’ll see. But, make no mistake, United is performing well. Not performing well is Cathay Pacific, an airline that has in recent years been stymied by intense competition. Some job cuts notwithstanding, investors are waiting for a comprehensive turnaround plan at Cathay. Meanwhile, we introduce a new segment and pose some interesting questions such as: Why is Emirates flying Athens-Newark? Will JetBlue catch Spirit in terms of profitability? And if the U.K. follows through with a so-called “hard Brexit,” will Ryanair abandon its domestic service there?

Rising labor costs at Delta dented its fourth quarter results significantly—but not enough to prevent the airline from posting a terrific profit for 2016. And the big story within the story is that revenues have stopped falling. All in all, Delta remains bullish, which is a nice way to kick off earnings season. Also in this episode, we consider a rumored Etihad-Lufthansa merger. One airline that certainly doesn’t need a merger is Volaris, but how worried should it be about U.S.-Mexico relations? And in India, Go Air, Indigo and now SpiceJet all have placed fairly big aircraft orders. Are they too ambitious? And is Jet Airways, which doesn’t have as many aircraft on order, being too cautious?

SAS has tried and tried to turn itself around, but to no avail—at least judging by its recent earnings report. In fact, on profits alone, the airline’s third quarter was a step backward. What’s going wrong, and can it be fixed? Meanwhile, Frontier Airlines posted a tremendous profit in the third quarter, with an operating margin among the best of the best. And let’s consider JetBlue for a moment. Here’s an airline that for two years has been ascendant, but unlike Frontier, they aren’t pursuing a tried-and-true business model. At times JetBlue looks like a legacy carrier with a lie-flat bed, and at other times it looks like an LCC, densifying their cabin and chasing ancillaries. Is it smart to do both? Also in this episode: Delta, Transasia, Asiana, Korean Air, Spirit, Allegiant and more.

Call it our year-in-preview show. In this first episode of 2017, we look at some of the more interesting stories that are ushering in the airline industry’s new year. Of course, 2017 doesn’t promise answers to all our questions. But we can hope, can’t we? Some of those questions: Leisure demand was one of the defining stories of 2016—will the trend continue? Is the burgeoning low-cost longhaul model for real? What about premium travel? Will Airbus and Boeing see a rebound in aircraft orders? Will the CSeries continue the momentum it saw in 2016? Will Singapore Airlines finally get out of its rut? Where will Qantas fly its B787-900s? Will Ryanair or easyJet interline? Will the Gulf carriers continue to decelerate growth? Will Air Canada continue its aggressive expansion? And in the U.S., have we finally seen a peak in the mighty earnings cycle of 2015/2016?

If anybody needed a reminder that the airline business is an interesting business, they got it last week as Air Berlin announced it will be handing over a big chunk of itself to arch competitor Lufthansa. Will Air Berlin be saved by shrinking itself? Not stopping there, Lufthansa decided it would also become the full owner of Brussels Airlines. Are either of these acquisitions a good thing for Lufthansa? Meanwhile, Air Canada continues to treat the world like it’s a buffet, loading its plate with six new intercontinental routes last week. One thing fueling Air Canada’s aggressiveness is the B787, which, by the way, just crossed the five-year anniversary of its first delivery. Delta has set its sights on Boston, and that could spell trouble for JetBlue. And IAG has further deepened its alliance with Qatar Airways.

South African Airways finally published its fiscal year results for the 12 months ending March 2015. Yes, that’s 2015. And the result—a $442m net loss—wasn’t worth the wait. But with the Ebola scare and high oil prices now in the past, how is the airline doing today? The short answer: We’re not too encouraged. But its competitor Comair is doing pretty well. Kenya Airways seems to be on the mend. Unfortunately, Fastjet is skidding. Meanwhile in Asia, Singapore Airlines reported some ominous load factors and Cathay Pacific continues to endure severe revenue erosion. Not nearly as severe, but still surprisingly bad, is the revenue situation in the transatlantic market, where that cash cow is now wobbling. And in the U.S., two very successful carriers, Spirit and Frontier, face a surprisingly long list of challenges.

Because Frontier Airlines is a non-publicly-traded carrier (which, for one thing, means it doesn’t have earnings calls), it’s all the more interesting to interview the airline's CEO Barry Biffle. Of course, we asked about a possible merger with Spirit or a possible IPO. Not surprisingly, we didn’t get too far there, but Biffle did open up on some interesting topics, such as Frontier’s successful second quarter, unit revenue pressures and what it takes to grow capacity 20% per year. We talked fleet plans, engines, operations, network philosophy, the labor situation and Frontier's soon-to-arrive Havana service. Also, is there enough elbow room in the U.S. for three growing ULCCs–Frontier, Spirit and Allegiant? And how big of a threat do legacy carriers pose as they segment their seats to offer no-frills tickets at a no-frills price? No stone was left unturned. Come with us and explore Frontier!

Despite a major oil bust and the weakening currency that followed, Canada’s airlines continue to plod along. Make no mistake, macro issues are leaving a mark on the earnings reports of Air Canada and WestJet, but the story is more about resiliency than infirmity. Meanwhile, a similar story—one that also includes an oil bust, a weak currency and nonetheless profitable airlines—is playing out in Mexico, where its four airlines of size (Aeroméxico, Volaris, Interjet and VivaAerobus) posted mixed results. We finish with three other stories of survival. Avianca is surviving exposure to the Brazilian and Venezuelan economies. Aeroflot is surviving its country’s own oil and currency bust. And Israel’s El Al is surviving competitive threats from Turkish Airlines, Aeroflot and Hainan Airlines.

Qantas reported a best-ever annual result. Not bad for a company that’s 95 years old. And not bad for a company that was barely breaking even just a few years ago. Virgin Australia, on the other hand, with a 2% operating margin, isn’t breaking any records—well, any records you’d want to break, that is. And then across the Tasman Sea is Air New Zealand… way out there… all alone… with nothing to keep it company except a whopping 15% operating margin. From there, things take a bad turn as we check in on a number of troubled carriers in the world. Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, Gol and Nok Air all had tales of woe in the second quarter (although Gol’s tale of woe at least was a lot better than it was a year ago). Finnair is also doing better, but how good is that? And lastly, will Scott Kirby’s arrival at United give the airline enough star power to finally deliver on its vaunted potential?

Korean carriers Asiana and Korean Air are being squeezed between rapid growth from Chinese carriers and new capacity coming out of Japan. But nonetheless, the two Korean carriers posted some of the most improved earnings among widebody carriers worldwide. Japan Airlines and All Nippon, meanwhile, both regressed in their year-over-year earnings despite a strengthening yen and lower fuel costs. Dismal demand is the culprit. In South America, LATAM is wrestling with the economic breakdown in Brazil as well as pressures to the global cargo market. Jet Airways posted its fifth consecutive profitable quarter. Cebu Pacific continues to take the world by storm. Air Berlin continues to struggle. And Garuda posted one of the worst declines in year-over-year Q2 profits. And lastly, is Delta making the right bet with its newly unveiled Delta One suite?

One of the bright spots in the Lufthansa Group’s second quarter earnings report was its Swiss unit, which bested Lufthansa mainline, the Austrian unit and even the healthy maintenance unit. Meanwhile, Eurowings was the worst performing airline of the group, with a negative one percent margin—but that was a great improvement from the first quarter. All in all, it added up to Lufthansa underperforming IAG but outperforming Air France/KLM, a scenario that’s become a recurring storyline. In Canada, the storyline seems to be changing as Air Canada outperformed WestJet. Icelandair had one of its best second quarters ever. Panama’s Copa continues to weather economic challenges and this time with hopeful signs that the worst is behind them. Indigo is cruising with a 15% operating margin. And, lastly, we discuss Delta’s Monday malfunction.