Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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