100 Days of no load shedding, which stocks benefit the most? (#594)

Load Shedding Update

• Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday.
• Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg.

Impact:

• Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding).
• Positive effect on inflation and economic stability.

Winners:

• Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less expenditure on diesel).
• Manufacturers: Invicta, Hudaco (benefit from increased customer stability).
• Real Estate: REITs with shopping centers, reduced generator use.

Interest Rates

• Jerome Powell's Speech: Potential for a single rate cut in November.
• Impact on Markets: Minimal immediate impact, with expectations already priced in.
• Local MPC Meetings: Predictions for rate changes on 19 September and 21 November.

Market Insights

• Mr Price*: Ex-dividend yet the stock price increased, indicating strong sector performance.

Tesla Analysis

• Market Share: Decline in second-quarter sales but maintains a significant market share (~50%).

Challenges:

• Increased competition from other EV manufacturers.
• Need for cheaper models.
• Significant share dilution over the years.
• Stock Performance: Historical highs and current rebound to 231.
• Future Prospects: Continued relevance in the EV market despite competition.

[caption id="attachment_42560" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Tesla weekly chart | 02 July 2024[/caption]

SARS Tax-Free Changes

• Impact: Minor changes affecting pro rata contributions for part-year taxpayers.

RSA Retail Savings Bonds

• Rate Change: Significant drop in 5-year bond rate from 11.5% to 10.5%.
• Action Required: Reset by the 20th for current holders. The form is here.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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