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Volatility Views

Volatility Views

717 episodes — Page 8 of 15

Best of Volatility Views: Brexit Volatility Explosion

Volatility Review: Brexit, Brexit, Brexit!!! Weekly Options Insider Poll - Do you think the UK will make a Brexit from the EU? Yah - 24% Nah - 43% I am sick of Brexit - 33% Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Tronghi: Detailed thoughts on VIX futures curve as of June 15. Question from JVon: What strategies don't work for the short VIX ratio call spread. Question from BB Wins: Can you give me an example of good strikes for a VIX 1-by-2 ratio spread if I use open interest as an indicator? Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close before the long holiday weekend? Russell: 12 Mark S.: 26 Mark L.: 21

Apr 22, 201954 min

Volatility Views 349: Behold the Power of Volatility Views

VOLATILITY REVIEW SPIKES - 12.25, down 0.5-points from last show VIX Cash - 12.3, 0.7-points lower than last week VVIX - 85, 6-points higher than last show. We saw the expected pop but not the expected move in VIX/VXX VIX Options - ADV: 530k, Total 11.1m (8.41m Calls, 2.65m Puts) VXXB - 26.6, 1.4-points lower than last show VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL Question from Jim Daily - Just to clarify. Are they really staying with $VXXB? There's no name change coming? Comment from Jack Heneka - Hi, greetings from Europe! Question from Curious George - RE: VXEFA silly prints. My question is: VXEFA has had some ridiculous intraday spikes. Yesterday O-11.8, C-11.4 with a High 25.5? Can you weigh in on what is causing that and what CBOE might do to eliminate these nonsensical prints? Also, really enjoyed your coverage of SPIKES. Are they going to do anything in EAFE or EEM? Thanks for all the good work you do! Question from Allen Y. - I get that if i buy vix options i can hedge them with vix futures. If i trade spikes options can I also hedge them with VIX futures or do I have to do some sort of spy straddle? It seems from my initial review that vix futures are closely correlated enough to get the job done. CRYSTAL BALL Last week: Mark L. - 13.25 Mark S. - 12.37 Simon - 12.65 Next week: Mark L. - 12.75 Mark S. - 12.37

Apr 15, 20191h 3m

Volatility Views 348: 1x2 Ratio Debates and Inverse Volatility

VOLATILITY REVIEW A week of mild rallies, trade war progress and dwindling recession fears killing volatility. Non-farms did not spark any volatility. SPIKES - 12.8, down nearly 1.5-points from last show VIX Cash - 13, 1-point lower than last week VVIX - 79, 8-points lower than last show VIX Options - ADV: 523k, Total 10.0m (7.68m Calls, 2.32m Puts) VXXB - 28, 1.5-points lower than last show LYFT extremely volatile post IPO. VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL Comment from T Mal - I don't do those for a credit 1x2, might as well reduce the distance between the strikes and pay a little Question from White Leo - When do you think we'll see new inverse volatility tradeable products hit the market? I miss the old XIV days. Comment from Mark Brandt - Embrace the coming Volpocalypse Question from PBWO9 - Hello to my favorite vol show. Thx for keeping me company on the train every week. Love it! 5 stars on all platforms from me. My q - I know you've talked a lot about the feb "VIXocalypse" from last year and the meltdown of the inverse volatility products like xiv. Now with the benefit of hindsight do you think that the prevelance of inverse products made the volatility spike much worse than it otherwise would have been. Also is the inverse true and now that those products are dead are we somewhat insulated from a repeat of vix spiking back up to 80. Question from Jim Daily - Just to clarify. Are they really staying with $VXXB? There's no name change coming? CRYSTAL BALL Last week: Mark L. - 13.75 Andrew - 13.20 Simon - 13.25 Next week: Mark L. - 13.25 Mark S. - 12.37 Simon - 12.65

Apr 8, 20191h 7m

Volatility Views 347: SPIKES and Erosion

VOLATILITY REVIEW A week of mild rallies is killing volatility. Latest Brexit fail is not spooking the market. SPIKES - 14.1, nearly 3-points lower than last show. VIX Cash - 14, 2.5-points higher than last week. VVIX - 87, 11-points lower than last show. VIX Options - ADV: 549k, Total 9.37m (7.18m Calls, 2.19m Puts). More 1x2 call spread today. VXXB - 29.5, 2.5-points lower than last show. CRYSTAL BALL Last week: Mark L. - 14.25 Mark S. - 12.37 Simon - 13.55 Next week: Mark L. - 13.75 Mark S. - 13.20 Simon - 13.25

Apr 1, 20191h 2m

Volatility Views 346: Roaring Back With a Vengeance

VOLATILITY REVIEW SPIKES - 16.87, nearly 5-points higher than last show VIX Cash - 16.5, nearly 4-points higher than last week VVIX - 98 - 18-points higher than last show VXXB - 32, nearly 4-points higher than last show VIX Options - ADV: 569k, Total 8.71m (6.65m Calls, 2.06m Puts) A strong selloff sparked by weak economic data in US & Europe. Europe's stock volatility gauge hits six-week high as weak data stirs worries VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL Question from Brew Master 3 - What does all of this mean for the vol market? Is this a problem for new vol players and products trying to get into the space? Comment from Mark Brandt - Sold the 32d 15/11 put spread to buy the 21 calls for a nickel. Liking it! Question from Nico Lee - There are so many questions swirling around VIX right now. How do we avoid these types of problems in the future so people can have faith that the volatility space isn't rigged against them. CRYSTAL BALL Next week: Mark L. - 14.25 Mark S. - 12.37 Simon - 13.55

Mar 25, 20191h 1m

Volatility Views 345: Rise of a New Volatility Whale

Mar 19, 201953 min

Volatility Views 344: The Return of Crazy Ratio Verticals

VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT Guest: Simon Ho - CEO, T3 Index What about the burgeoning volatility market in Australia? What is price dragging? How does it help to avoid the manipulation issues plaguing VIX? Is SPIKES performing up to your expectations during the recent resurgence of volatility? VOLATILITY REVIEW Weak jobs and trade reports SPIKES -17.25, 2.5-points higher than last show. VIX Cash - 17.50, nearly 3-points higher than last week. VVIX - 91, 11-points higher than last show VIX Options - ADV: 499k, Total 9.23m A ratio stupid of 1x3 roll in VIX VXXB - 34.1, 2.6-point higher than last week. CRYSTAL BALL Next week: Mark L. - 14.75 Mark S. - 13.75 Simon - 15.25

Mar 11, 20191h 1m

Ep 343Volatility Views 343: A New Era in Volatility

VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT SPIKES What is it? Why bring it to the market now? SPIKES launched on Feb 21. How did it go? How has the market responded to SPIKES? How is the liquidity shaping up in SPIKES in the early days? VOLATILITY REVIEW SPIKES - 14.79 VIX Cash - 14.75 VVIX - 80 VIX Options - ADV: 476k VXXB - 31.5 VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL Question from J Sign - Is Spikes live? I can't find it on my broker screen? What's the ticker? Question from Vex1 - Why does it take so long for new volatility products to come to market? CRYSTAL BALL Next week: Mark L. - 14.50 Mark S. - 13.05

Mar 4, 20191h 4m

S1 Ep 1Best of Volatility Views: Back to the Beginning

Best of Volatility Views: Back to the BeginningIt's a shortened holiday week. So we thought we'd take you back to the primordial ooze days of Volatility Views with the inaugural sneak preview episode from August 2011.

Feb 22, 201927 min

Volatility Views 342: Trade the Erosion, Hedge the Explosion

VOLATILITY REVIEW VIX Cash - 14.8, 2.5-points lower than last week. VVIX - 80, 7.5-points lower than last show. VIX Options - ADV:476k, Total 6.20M (4.86M Calls, 1.34M Puts) VXXB - 32.5, 2.5-points lower than last show. SVXY - 46, unchanged from last show. VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL #QOTW - $VXX is dead! Long Live $VXXB! There's a (somewhat) new kid on the #Volatility trading block. Are you trading $VXXB #options yet? If not, how are you getting your #Volatility fix these days? $VIX $TVIX $SVXY 43% - Yes: Jumped into $VXXB 11% - No: Spreads are too wide 14% - No: Prefer $TVIX, etc 32% - No: Prefer $VIX #options Question from Thomas Weber - If I am short a deep in the money call in SPY (delta near 1), what are the odds I will be assigned the Thursday night before Friday expiration? Question from Jelevis - Does it make sense to just get long ratio vertical put spreads in VXX as opposed to just buying the puts? Make the premium negligible so you don't get hurt if it spikes against you in the near term. If it drops it will probably do so slowly so you have time to get out. Or you can just pick up VXX shares - at a hopefully low strike price so further erosion will be limited. Then you can always just wheel out of those if the need arises. Thoughts Vol swammis? This the VXX silver bullet trade? CRYSTAL BALL Last week: Mark L. - 17.25 Mark S. - 16.25 Next week: Mark L. - 15.50 Andrew - 14.25

Feb 18, 20191h 5m

Volatility Views 341: Talking VIX, Spikes, VXXB, Earnings Volatility and More

VOLATILITY REVIEW VIX Cash - 17.18, can you say Bullseye!? VVIX - 87.5, approx. 8-points higher than last show, dipped to 76.45 earlier this week. VIX Options - 156k, ADV: 497k, Total 8.72m (6.68m Calls, 2.05m Puts) VXXB - 35, 2-points lower than last show. Today - 40k, ADV - 199k VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL #QOTW - With everyone still shaking off #SuperBowl haze, let's start the week by applying your trading mindset to next season. If you had to buy a call on one team to make it into next year's big game - which team are you buying? Feeling another team - let us know below. - Patriots - Rams - Bears (legally obligated) - Saints Question from Brian Collamer - Hi Mark, Listened to the last VV show and heard you mention my trade again and thought I'd set the record straight....This trade was in my ROTH, can't be naked anything. Sold one 15 call, bought two 19 calls. Got a credit of .05c. Did I buy or sell to open this position?Closed position for a debit of .07c. Did I buy or sell to close this position? Round trip with commissions cost was a little under $30 (Probably should have bought Salvo's book instead of giving turity bucks to TD Ameritrade...) I think I had the right idea for a hedge, just got the "moneyness" of the strikes wrong. VX curve was very flat. March call prices were very close in price to May calls. Since I'm paying almost the same price for a May call spread vs a March call spread, does it make sense to get more time to expiration? Thanks again! Question from BPin - Heard your discussion of the listener question from Brian Collamer on the last few episodes. Seems like the main concern was being short "units." Can you clarify what you meant by that? Cool show. What do you guys think of the vix coverage on zero hedge? Comment from Options Game - Translated from French by Microsoft - You should follow @Options, it's a good podcasts that will give you ideas. CRYSTAL BALL Last week: Mark L. - 17.05 Mark S. - 15.25 Next week: Mark L. -17.25 Mark S. - 16.26

Feb 11, 201959 min

Volatility Views 340: VXX is Dead. Long Live VXXB

Volatility Review - Jan VIX futures volume down size from 2017 - Overview of Hot VIX options positions - Overview of interesting VIX options trades - Will there be an end-of-day selloff in VIX futures from VXX - First look at hot VXXB options positions - Earnings Volatility Overview: AMZN, MSFT, FB, QCOM, AAPL and more Volatility Voicemail - Why is the market so slow to adopt VXXB - Can market makers see if your spx or vix order is open or close - and more Crystal Ball The Meatball finally wins. This weeks' picks: Mark L. - 17.05 Mark S. - 15.25

Feb 4, 20191h 0m

Ep 339VOLATILITY VIEWS 339: Shutdown Deal vs VIX plus INTC, SBUX, XLNX and More

Today Mark and Mark discuss: Volatility Review Segment VIX and VVIX relatively unchd. from last week. VIX futures still weirdly flat VIX options volume still relatively anemic VXX options love switching to calls How will the Shutdown Deal impact volatility? Earnings Volatility Review We discuss: INTC SBUX XLNX JBLU and more Volatility Voicemail We answer you questions about INTC volatility, ratio 1x2 spreads and more. Crystall Ball Picks Mark L. - 17.25 Mark S. 16.25

Jan 25, 201957 min

Volatility Views 338: Boulevard of Broken VXX Dreams

Volatility Views 338: Boulevard of Broken VXX Dreams - Host: Mark Longo, CEO - Options Insider Media Group - Co-Host: Mark Sebastian, Founder - OptionPit.com Volatility Review - Major indices up nearly 1.5% across the board with volatility taking a bath. - Mark and Mark break down the legion of Jan VXX puts that will expire worthless this week. Volatility Voicemail - We answer your questions about VIX 1x2 verticals, VXX sadness, Powell puts and more... Crystal Ball - Our picks for VIX next week: Mark L. - 17.25 Mark S. - 16.25

Jan 21, 201954 min

Ep 337VOLATILITY VIEWS 337: Looking At Volatility From A European Perspective

VOLATILITY VIEWS 337: Looking At VIX From A European Perspective - HOST: MARK LONGO, OPTIONS INSIDER MEDIA GROUP - SPECIAL GUEST CO-HOST: AASH VYAS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER - TUNGSTEN INVESTMENT FUNDS VOLATILITY REVIEW SEGMENT VIX STILL EERILY FLAT - HOVERING AROUND 20 LEVEL. MARK/ANDREW VOLATILITY REVIEW - WHICH VOLATILITY TRADES, TRENDS OR DEVELOPMENTS CAUGHT YOUR EYE THIS WEEK? VIX CASH 19.25 - 3.5 PTS LOWER THAN LAST SHOW VVIX 85.5 - 4.5 PTS HIGHER THAN LAST SHOW VIX FUTURES CURVE STRANGELY FLAT FRONT MONTH: .4PT PREMIUM TO CASH 2ND MONTH: .65 PT PREMIUM TO CASH VIX OPTIONS TODAY - 215K ADV - 584K NEARLY UNCHD FROM LAST SHOW TOP VIX POSITIONS 327336 .VIX Feb 13th 37.5 C, chg -2140 245513 .VIX Jan 16th 30.0 C, chg -243 213192 .VIX Jan 16th 35.0 C, chg -24 209890 .VIX Feb 13th 40.0 C, chg +175 170651 .VIX Jan 16th 32.5 C, chg -380 164631 .VIX Apr 17th 45.0 C, chg +2463 156643 .VIX Jan 16th 18.0 P, chg +571 153838 .VIX Apr 17th 70.0 C, no chg 144909 .VIX Feb 13th 35.0 C, chg +3900 140853 .VIX Apr 17th 37.5 C, no chg 138566 .VIX Mar 19th 37.5 C, chg -3 135504 .VIX Jan 16th 24.0 C, chg -308 132670 .VIX Jan 16th 15.0 P, chg +292 131605 .VIX Jan 16th 16.0 P, chg +3575 124540 .VIX May 22nd 37.5 C, no chg 122430 .VIX Jan 16th 25.0 C, chg -3957 121452 .VIX Mar 19th 40.0 C, chg -286 121369 .VIX Feb 13th 30.0 C, chg +29260 116491 .VIX Jan 16th 19.0 P, chg +2240 116019 .VIX Jan 16th 20.0 P, chg +3823 Total 8.63m (6.41m Calls, 2.22m Puts) HOT VIX OPTIONS TODAY FEB RR/STRANGLE? POTENTIALLY CLOSING? 15000 VIX Feb 13th 45.0 Calls $0.12 (FT Theo=0.09) EDGE=0.03 ASK CBOE 09:39:32.942 IV=136.3% -0.9 CBOE 59k x $0.05 - $0.15 x 62k CBOE SPREAD VIX=20.25 Fwd 122%OTM Detail ContractHist 15000 VIX Feb 13th 16.0 Puts $0.27 (FT Theo=0.26) EDGE=0.01 MID CBOE 09:39:32.941 IV=72.8% +3.6 CBOE 24 x $0.25 - $0.3 x 54k CBOE SPREAD VIX=20.25 Fwd 20%OTM Detail ContractHist 11660 VIX Mar 19th 30.0 Calls $0.64 (FT Theo=0.63) EDGE=0.01 MID CBOE 10:56:38.471 IV=86.0% -0.6 CBOE 27k x $0.6 - $0.7 x 43k CBOE SPIM VIX=20.08 Fwd 49%OTM Detail ContractHist VXX 40 - 4 PTS LOWER THAN LAST SHOW TODAY - 121K ADV - 273K VXX TOP POSITIONS 203693 VXX Jan 10.0 P, no chg 82235 VXX Jan 15.0 P, no chg 70226 VXX Jan 5.0 P (Nonstd VXX2), no chg 65901 VXX Jan 33.0 P, chg +53 53317 VXX Jan 20.0 P, no chg 51873 VXX Jan 25.0 P, no chg 51826 VXX Jan 50.0 C, chg +14 47328 VXX Jan 30.0 P, chg -38 39767 VXX Jan 50.0 C (Nonstd VXX2), no chg 39578 VXX Jan 52.0 C, chg +22 39265 VXX Jan 40.0 P, chg +549 34849 VXX Jan 35.0 P, chg +92 33589 VXX Jan 18.0 P, no chg 32999 VXX Jan 31.0 P, no chg 32052 VXX Jan 32.0 P, no chg 32000 VXX Jan 28.0 P, chg -1 28451 VXX Jan 35.0 C, chg +8 28171 VXX Jan 27.0 P, no chg 28100 VXX Jan 60.0 C (Nonstd VXX2), no chg 26737 VXX Jan 37.0 P, chg -629 Total 2.41m (1.06m Calls, 1.35m Puts) VXX TOP TRADES 4829 VXX Jan 39.0 Puts $0.80 (FT Theo=0.81) EDGE=0.01 ASK [MULTI] 11:45:32.979 IV=59.4% +0.7 CBOE 204 x $0.79 - $0.8 x 1167 ISE VXX=40.13 2%OTM Detail ContractHist 2430 VXX Jan 59.0 Calls $0.03 (FT Theo=0.01) EDGE=0.02 BID [MULTI] 12:23:07.285 IV=123.2% +11.1 AMEX 1822 x $0.03 - $0.04 x 1029 GEMX VXX=39.82 Ref 48%OTM Detail ContractHist SVXY 46 - UNCHD FROM LAST SHOW VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL *QUESTION FROM JLVC: What's the vol crew predicting for 2019? *QUESTION FROM JT: Any new year's resolutions for vol traders? *QUESTION FROM TONTAN: So is the short vol, vix trade dead? Should we all just buy vix or vxx calls? *QUESTION FROM E5L4: Not looking good for the 200k jan 10 puts in VXX. *QUESTION FROM LROCK3: Is there an update on spikes launch? CRYSTAL BALL WHERE WILL VIX BE THIS WEEK? WINNER - MARK L. with 19.25? LOSER - The Greasy Meatball with 17.50? WHERE WILL VIX BE NEXT WEEK? MARK: 19.25 GUEST: 17.5 AASH VIX CLOSE 2019 PREDICTION IS 22

Jan 11, 201954 min

Ep 336Volatility Views 336: Kicking off 2019 With Some Volatility

Volatility Views 336: Kicking off 2019 With Some Volatility Host: Mark Longo, CEO & Founder - The Options Insider Media Group Co-Host: Mark Sebastian, Co-Founder -OptionPit.com, Portfolio Manager - Karman Line Capital VOLATILITY REVIEW Massive jobs report - The economy added 312k jobs in Dec, although unemployment is up to 3.9% Powell's speech apparently didn't save the market too much. VIX Cash - 22.75, nearly 6-points lower than last show. VVIX - 81, 14-points lower than last show. VIX Options - ADV: 586k, Total 7.49m (5.71m Calls, 1.78m Puts) VXX - 50, 4-points higher than last show. TOP VIX POSITIONS - ALL CALLS - FIRST TIME IN AGES 331732 .VIX Feb 13th 37.5 C, chg +1807 244006 .VIX Jan 16th 30.0 C, chg +2028 200570 .VIX Jan 16th 35.0 C, chg -4014 166294 .VIX Jan 16th 32.5 C, chg +4868 161664 .VIX Feb 13th 40.0 C, chg +1486 160240 .VIX Apr 17th 45.0 C, no chg 153836 .VIX Apr 17th 70.0 C, chg +110 138616 .VIX Mar 19th 37.5 C, chg +10 135993 .VIX Jan 16th 24.0 C, chg -128 135869 .VIX Feb 13th 35.0 C, chg +3579 133744 .VIX Apr 17th 37.5 C, chg +534 132348 .VIX Jan 16th 15.0 P, chg -1 127371 .VIX Jan 16th 18.0 P, chg -6623 127070 .VIX Jan 16th 16.0 P, no chg 121718 .VIX Mar 19th 40.0 C, chg -4 114484 .VIX Jan 16th 25.0 C, chg +2019 114106 .VIX Jan 16th 20.0 P, chg +5384 102166 .VIX Mar 19th 35.0 C, chg +4 101408 .VIX Jan 16th 27.0 C, chg -563 100573 .VIX Jan 16th 37.5 C, chg +4451 Total 7.49m (5.71m Calls, 1.78m Puts) AAPL VOL IN THE SPOTLIGHT AAPL CRUSHES MARKET WITH RARE REVISION TO GUIDANCE. BIGGEST SINGLE DAY SELLOFF IN APPLE IN OVER A DECADE Those $AAPL Jan 150 puts that everyone sold in our last poll for $2 are now ITM. So our question is - what do you do now? Do you keep the stock around $148? Sell covered calls to "wheel out?" Roll or close the position? Let us know here. Happily buy $AAPL at $148 Wheel out w/Covered Call Roll put Down Close position Vote Now at www.Twitter.com/Options CRYSTAL BALL Our mega 2019 Crystal Ball Prediction Contest is underway. Many of you have already participated. Here's a few of your predictions for the closing price of VIX in 2019: WHERE WILL VIX BE AT THE CLOSE OF 2019? ROCKLOBSTER- 16.01, 14.99 Mark L. 17.10 - AVG FOR YEAR 17.60 Greasy Meatball: CLOSE - 12.04, AVG. 14.05 akatz000: 31.5. I think we've got one more down day to round out 2018. Then again, I had just started trading vol and was holding XIV on Volpocalypse, so what do I know Neil Wales - 13.3 contango - 12.14 Mail Man Dan - 12/31 closes at $257.50 on $SPY and $VIX at $22.50 Brad Huff - 27.25 Filip (FContangotrader) - 32.4 Matt Thompson - 18.03 Ahmed Sharif - Feels 3 cents too high to me Pat Hennessy - 21.52 David Lincoln - 16.90 Bill Luby - EOY 2019 $VIX guesstimate: 15.83 Ophir Gottlieb - 25.42 Andrew Nightingale - 32 Andrew Giovinazzi - 16.1 Trading Volatility - 24.3 Steve Place: armageddon, end of world, plagues and locusts, markets close, 0 percent vol, checkmate Volatility Trading: 17.50 2019 average with a 14.50 VIX at year end Pat Hennessy, CMT: Proposing another form of this question. What will the average VIX (based on daily closes) be in 2019? Chart attached for reference of past years….My guess is 19.27...oh and dont hit me about "average VIX" issues Zaphod: I wasnt sure what they meant and like this way. Have to drop in q1 from here, shenanigans/earnings, Mueller, settling/boredom....dont think we spend a lot of time below 16....so 21.35 as some spikes weigh on the average. No clue in reality ofc. filip: Close your eyes and BTFD Andrew Nightingale, CFA: 32 Jay Soloff: First half of 2019 average = 28, second half =16, but I think the lower prints outweigh the higher prints so we end up with an average like 18.5. Do not question the rigorous maths I used to come up with that number. It's proprietary and may involve an abacus and rye toast. David Lincoln: 16.90, 17.9 for the average… Trading Volatility: 24.3...Low of 17.6 and high of 63.2 Barton: Great chart. My guess is 25% between 2007 and 2008 levels. 17.54 X.75+32.69 X .25 = 21.33….I would have guessed half way between 2007 and 2008, if we did not have the systematic short vol crowd. Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.03….Agree that's a better metric. End of year, you are really just guessing what is gonna happen in Dec...My 2019 average guess is 24.88 f ili p: $vix 32.4 Contangoking: 12.14 Next week VIX Pick: Mark L. - 19.25 Mark S. - 17.50

Jan 7, 201954 min

Volatility Views 335: 2018 Vol Review Spectacular

VOLATILITY REVIEW VIX Cash - 28, nearly 6-points higher than last show. VVIX - 95, 10-points lower than last show. Mnuchin Blames Volcker Rule, High-Speed Trading for Volatility - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/mnuchin-blames-volcker-rule-high-speed-trading-for-volatility VIX Options - 575k, Total 6.73m (5.24m Calls, 1.50m Puts) VXX - 50, 4-points higher than last show. 2018 Theme - The Year That Vol Returned, aka the year we got the real Trump administration CRYSTAL BALL Final #QOTW for 2018 - It's the big one! Time to play along w/ #VolatilityViews and dust off your #CrystalBall. Quite simply - where do you think $VIX will close for 2019? Bonus points: Reply/DM/Email w/ your specific pick. Closest (within 1pt) will win Fabulous Prizes. - Low: 8-11.99 - Normal: 12 -16.99 - Elevated: 17- 23 - Very Elevated: > 23 Twitter Guesses: Neil Wales - 13.3 Contango - 12.14 Mail Man Dan - 12/31 closes at $257.50 on $SPY and $VIX at $22.50 Brad Huff - 27.25 Filip (FContangotrader) - 32.4 Matt Thompson - 18.03 Ahmed Sharif - Feels 3 cents too high to me Pat Hennessy - 21.52 David Lincoln - 16.90 Bill Luby - EOY 2019 $VIX guesstimate: 15.83 Ophir Gottlieb - 25.42 Andrew Nightingale - 32 Andrew Giovinazzi - 16.1 Trading Volatility - 24.3 Us: Andrew - 16.01, Avg: 14.99 Mark L. - 17.10, Avg: 17.60

Dec 31, 20181h 4m

Volatility Views 334: Fed and Trump Kick VIX into Overdrive

Volatility Review: A look at last week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 26.5, nearly 4-points higher than last show. VVIX - 105, 8-points higher than last show Mnuchin Blames Volcker Rule, High-Speed Trading for Volatility VIX Options - ADV: 575k down nearly 20k from last show. Total 5.50m (4.23m Calls, 1.27m Puts) VXX - 46, 6.5-points higher than last show. SVXY - 43, almost 3 handles lower than last show. Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Which upcoming volatility product are you most excited about trading in 2019? Or are you content to stay with the original despite lingering issues? SPIKES Realday/RealVol Voldex/Skewdex I'll stick with VIX Comments, questions, and musings: Mark Twain on Volatility - "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." -Mark Twain Comment from Pat Hennessy - There are a total of 6,600 $VIX Dec puts that will be ITM if the VIX settles above 24. 1.66 million VIX puts will expire totally worthless. This represents over 64% of all open VIX puts. Thanks for playing. Better luck next time. Question from JLVC - What's the vol crew predicting for 2019? Question from Sangfrois - Why no options on $TVIX? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 19.25 Mark S. - 27.25 This week: Mark L. - 23.45 Mark S. - 28.85

Dec 26, 201857 min

Volatility Views 333: Another Week of Vol Craziness

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective What exactly is afoot? VIX cash International volatility trends: France for the win! Volatility opportunities 1-by-6 fever? Aggressively naked Take the money and run Volatility Voicemail: Options questions of the week Everyone loves trading AAPL Options. So the open interest is always very high. But a few interesting options dominate the rest. What do you think is the largest open position in AAPL right now? No cheating - try to use your #SpideySense. Jan 2020 200 Call Jan 250 Call Dec 180 Put Jan 100 Put Listener questions and comments: Question from F96 - Is there a listed equivalent to trading a variance swap? If not what's the closest approximation? Question from T-Bags - Which new volatility product are you most excited about for 2019? Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 18.65 Mark S. - 23.00 This week: Mark L. - 19.25 Mark S. - 27.25

Dec 17, 201840 min

Volatility Views 332: Revenge of a Muted VIX

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 22.65, 3.25 higher than last show VVIX - 97, 3-points higher than last show VIX Options - ADV: 594k - up nearly 50k from last show Hot VIX options today: 10000 VIX Feb 13th 17.0 Puts $1.025 3999 VIX Dec 12th 30.0 Calls $0.10 42800 VIX Dec 19th 40.0 Calls $0.14 37700 VIX Jan 16th 32.5 Calls $0.562 Plus: VXX - 35.5, 1-point lower than last show SVXY - 46, almost 4 handles lower than last show Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from DaNincompoop - Are the futures really backward if it's just the cash that's higher? Question from Charles Pierce - When does VXX make the switch to VXX B? Question from ELanc3 - Over-under on when we'll see the next crop of new inverse volatility ETFs? Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication ensues Last week: Mark L. - 17.65 Mark S. - 16.49 This week: Mark L. - 18.65 Mark S. - 23.00

Dec 10, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 331: The Winners of the Great Crystal Ball Contest

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 19.4, almost unchanged from two week ago VIX - 94, 12-points lower than last show VIX Options - ADV: 546k, Total 6.77m (4.81m Calls, 1.95m Puts) VXX - 35.5, 1-point lower than last show Crypto crushed below $4k recently Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week: AAPL continues to take a beating - recently dropping below $175. We know many of you LOVE to trade $AAPL and this selloff creates opportunities. Looking ahead to Jan 2019 expiration- which trade would you prefer to make in $AAPL right now? Sell Jan 150P for $1.65 Buy Jan 150P for $1.65 Sell Jan 200C for $1 Buy Jan 200C for $1 Listener questions and comments Comment from Pete Yarbro - I'd sell this strangle. Question from EELC5 - What's the lowest volatility can get in the SPX? Comment from Nilai - I like Mark's idea for an erosionator in VXX. Would be something interesting to watch. Kind of like a smog report or tide report but for VXX. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication. Two weeks ago we asked people to guess where VIX would close on 11/30 by the end of the show. Answer: 18.80 Mark L.: 18.15 Mark S.: 15.25 R Ray: 19.70 -.9 Richie Rich: 17.1 Alex P: 17.50 William Valentine: I'm going with 16-ish. (I'll define the margin of -ish next Friday). Ophir Gottlieb: 19.23 - Vol is too cheap for a number of names and buying one-two day straddles is printing money. This is one of the best trading environments for vol in 5 years. MRTOPTICK: 19.87 Neil Wales: 18.1 - .7 ConTango: 15.09 Andrew Giovinazzi: 15.91 David Lincoln: 16.50 Jim Carroll: I'll take 14.90 cuz bears will take a break before they try again...Just wanted to take the under! Come at me!!!!!! Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.71056 Cmcapone: Kind of late, but for the 11/30 prognostication contest, put me down for 18.80. This week: Mark L. - 17.15 Mark S. - 16.35

Dec 3, 20181h 3m

Best of Volatility Views: The Birth of Modern Volatility Skew

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. Black Monday. Happy 30th Birthday to Volatility Skew! The numbers: VIX - 93.33 CBOE Skew Index - 146 VXN - 14.64 Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX ADV - 876k VIX call/put - 4.1 VXX - 34.39 XIV - 105.87 Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Earnings Season is here! Which name do you plan to trade most actively this cycle? 27% - Tesla - $TSLA 34% - Amazon - $AMZN 23% - Apple - $AAPL 16% - Alphabet - $GOOGL Listener questions and comments: Comment form MoneyEngine X3.5 - Buying CVS calls. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 9.55 Mark S. - 10.25 Ghost of Russell - 28 Kevin - 10 This week: Mark L. - 9.65 Mark S. - 10.16 Russell - 9.87

Nov 23, 20181h 4m

Volatility Views 330: Mega Crystal Ball Palooza

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective Sell-offs appear to be slowing down Tech earnings weighing things down Facebook: did they or didn't they? Are we in a trade war? VIX cash: 19.17 VVIX: 106 - up from last show VIX futures keeping pace or outpacing the index Blow out in nat gas options NVDA, AMAT earnings Volatility Voicemail: Listeners take over Comment from Ninny - I think VIX will touch your kids. Question from LLAX: How come you guys don't talk $SVXY or $TVIX on your show? Question From TAX8T: New listener and first time writer. Awesome program. Love the vol trading breakdowns and the fun guests. Is there any way you can include a rundown of large OTC var and volatility prints on your show each week. Keep 'em coming. Crystal Ball: Really reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 17.65 Mark S. - 16.49 Two weeks from now: Mark L. - 18.15 Mark S. - 15.25

Nov 20, 201858 min

Volatility Views 329: VIX Is Weird But Will Not Touch Your Kids

Volatility Review: Earnings Highlights for the Week Tuesday - GE, Sony, BP, FB, eBay, Pfizer, Coca-Cola Wednesday - GM Thursday - Apple, Starbucks, Weight Watchers, Spotify, Cigna, Dow/DuPont Friday - ExxonMobil, Cboe, Alibaba, Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway Volatility indicators: VIX Cash - 17.75, 2.75-points lower than last show VVIX - 100, unchanged from last show VIX Options - ADV: 618k, VIX call/put: 2.1/1, Total 9.40m (6.29m Calls, 3.11m Puts) VXX - 37.5, 3-points lower than last show Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week We always like to take the pulse of our audience. This week we're checking in on your favorite strategies. What is your go-to #options strategy? Butterflies Covered Call/Short Put Verticals, call or put Calendars/Diagonals Listener questions and comments Question from Mina - Why is VIX so weird? Question from Holan - That Meatball guy says he gets paid to buy $VXX puts. How? Question from BD3 - Why no Nasdaq VIX futures? Why no options? Why can't I trade VIX on Nasdaq? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 18.35 Mark S. - 16.5 This week: Mark L. - 17.65 Mark S. - 16.49

Nov 12, 20181h 3m

Volatility Views 328: Apple Vs. VIX

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. Apple and Non-farms are on the radar today. A rough month for equities: 9% Drop - the largest monthly Nasdaq drop since Nov 2008. 7% Drop - largest S&P monthly drop since Sept 2011. Apple screwed the pooch: Apple tumbles 7% after earnings on light guidance. Market cap back below $1T Earnings Highlights from Last Week: Tuesday - GE, Sony, BP, FB, eBay, Pfizer, Coca-Cola Wednesday - GM Thursday - Apple, Starbucks, Weight Watchers, Spotify, Cigna, Dow/DuPont Friday - ExxonMobil, Cboe, Alibaba, Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway Volatility indexes: VIX Cash - 20.5, 6.5-points lower than last show. VVIX - 99, 21-handles lower than last show. VIX Options - ADV: 609k, VIX call/put: 2.4/1, Total 8.24m (5.84m Calls, 2.40m Puts) VXX - 37.5, 3-points lower than last show Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week: Volatility is all over the place these days. Some say it's too cheap, others say it's too expensive. Either way they want to trade it. What's your weapon of choice when trading the wacky world of volatility? VIX options/futures VXX options/ shares TVIX shares SPX / SPY options Listener questions and comments: Question from Alan Jackson -You guys say to close or roll ahead of VIX expiration to avoid the settlement flimflammery. So when should I do it? The day before settlement? The last hour of the day? A few days before? What's the ideal closing scenario? Question from Numrr - What's your preferred ratio of puts to underlying when trading VXX. Obviously you have to overweight with puts but how much? I like to keep 3 OTM puts on for every share of VXX. That way I'm biased short but also have something in my back pocket for weeks like this. What are your thoughts on that ratio? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 18.15 Mark S. - 17.25 Guest - 18.50 This week: Mark L. - 18.35 Mark S. - 16.50

Nov 5, 20181h 3m

Volatility Views 327: VIX, Seriously, WTH?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 26.9, 6.8 points higher than last show VVIX - 120, 4 handles higher than last show A Listless VIX Says This Sell-Off Reeks of 'Dumb Money' by Luke Kawa - Bloomberg VIX Options - ADV: 574k, VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 7.47m (5.53m Calls, 1.95m Puts) VXX - 40.75, 6 points higher than last show Bitcoin Price Volatility Falls to Lowest Of 2018 The Dollar Is the New VIX, And the Bitcoin Connection by Brian Kelly - Forbes Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Earnings are back with big tech names on the docket. Which of the following will be lighting up your #Options trading this week? Bonus points for your preferred strategies - e.g. call vertical, straddle, etc. 28% - Microsoft $MSFT 34% - Amazon $AMZN 10% - Alphabet $GOOGL 28% - Twitter $TWTR Listener questions and comments: Question from Cube Finance - Do we smell the distinct odor of feedback loops about to take off? #risk #volatility Question from Darren Hom - VXX and the index it's based on provided a statistically significant exposure to shorting straddles. This was not the case for VIX, presumably because of volatility drag. Is it that bad that XIV is gone? Question from PRGR0 - SPY or SPX better for straight vol plays like straddles? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 17.75 Mark S. - 16.25 This week: Mark L. - 18.15 Mark S. - 17.25 Guest - 18.50

Oct 29, 20181h 2m

Volatility Views 326: Getting Real about Volatility

Volatility Viewpoint: Featuring special guest Bob Krause of Demand Derivatives. He discusses: What is Demand Derivatives? What happened to VolX? What's new from Demand Derivatives? Limited-risk futures contracts Taking a cue from Buffett Converting the skeptics Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX cash: 2.5 points lower than last show VIX range this week: 17.06 - 22.89 VVIX 10 handles lower than last show VIX futures curve: super backward again Vol is expensive Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark: 17.65 Andrew: 26.01 This week: Mark L.: 17.75 Mark S.: 16.25

Oct 22, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 325: VIXocalypse Redux

Volatility Review: VIX Cash - 22.35, 6 point from last show, up nearly 10 points from two weeks ago. VVIX - 126, 15 handles higher than last show, 34 higher than two weeks ago. VIX Options - ADV: 541k, VIX call/put: 2.7/1, Total 9.53m (6.93m Calls, 2.60m Puts), VXX - 35.65, 9 points higher than last show. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Comment from DelVecchio - Dude WTF #VIX. Comment from XXX - "THERE IS A SPECIAL PLACE IN HELL FOR PEOPLE WHO QUOTE VIX AS A PERCENT." Comment from Martin Ryan - XIV imploded. TVIX is alive and kicking - I've used it for years. The other options have their advantages and disadvantages too - good luck trying to get a reasonable fill from options traders in a fast market. At least with an ETF or ETN I have liquidity... Question from Grigs - Why would shorting volatility during VIX futures contango fail? Question from JasonNolk - Suggestions on how to be best net neutral here? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 12.55 Andrew - 13.25 This week: Mark L. - 17.65 Andrew - 26.01

Oct 15, 20181h 3m

Volatility Views 324: Volatility Weapon of Choice

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective Non-farms come in lower than expected Unemployment drops to 3.7%, the lowest since 1969 Bitcoin vol falls to lowest levels this year VIX up 4.3 from last week VVIX up 19 from last week VXX nearly unchanged from last week Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll What is your weapon of choice when trading volatility? VIX VXX SPX SPY VIX VXX SPY/ SPX options Other Listener questions and comments: Comment from Martin Ryan - TVIX, UVXY, SVXY.I've given you three good alternatives (one an inverse). There is nothing little about either TVIX or UVXY - both have good liquidity, tight spreads and good trading price action. The VIX imploded, but the aforementioned are doing well as effective alternatives to options. Comment from Ryan - ETF - SQQQ Question from Alacor - Like the show. Tried my hand at crystal ball. Not good. Heard you talk about straddle runs in SPX. Are there any products that package hedged ATM straddles as a product? Maybe they offer to delta hedge as well? Question from Telly0 - Are there any long VIX vehicles that don't erode to zero? Question from T Dog - Is it better to only take the short volatility trades and ignore the long volatility trades? Question from one0761 - Are we in the midst of a major correction. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 11.75 Mark S. - 12.15 Bill - 13 This week: Mark L. - 12.55 Andrew - 13.25

Oct 8, 201857 min

Volatility Views 323: Rethinking VIX Calls vs. SPY Puts

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective This week, featuring guest co-host Bill Valentine from Valentine Ventures. The old VIX call vs SPX put debate continues VIX Cash - 12.5, up 0.3 from last show RVX - 14.6, up 0.7 from last week VVIX - 89, 2 handles higher than last show Size "hedge" in SPX puts this week VIX Options - ADV, 452K, VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 7.77m (5.74m Calls, 2.03m Puts) VXX - 26.65, almost unchanged from last show Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll The CBOE Skew Index alarmed many when it soared above 150. Of course, every index tells its own skew story. Which index do you think has the steepest skew right now (aka 25D put vol vs. 25D Call vol)? Russell 2000 S&P 500 Nasdaq Other Listener questions and comments: Question from Leans - Do you think SVXY will ever go back to its pre-Feb structure? Question from Tim - Is there really such a thing as a "covered call" in VIX since the options don't expire into futures? If I'm long a future and sell a XIV call against it what is that called? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 11.25 Mark S. - 12.14 This week: Mark L. - 11.75 Mark S. - 12.15 Bill - 13.00

Oct 1, 20181h 2m

Volatility Views 322: The Throes of VIX

Volatility Review: A look at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 12.2, down 2.2 points from last show RVX - 13.9, down 2 points from last week VVIX - 91, nine handles lower than last show Cboe SKEW Index Tops 150 for Record Four Straight Trading Days; Some Cite Surge in Black-Swan Hedging VIX Options - ADV: 467k, VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 6.86m (5.04m Calls, 1.82m Puts) More size Oct/Nov risk reversal on Weds - over 50k on the tape. VXX - 26.65, over 1 point lower than last show. Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Some people look to analysts for their market outlook. We prefer to analyze actual options positions. This week we're looking at SPY. In a nutshell - what do you think is the largest options position in SPY right now? No cheating - what does your gut tell you? 16% - SPY Mar 255.0 P 32% - SPY Oct 272.0 P 34% - SPY Dec 31st 320.0 C 18% - SPY Sep 300.0 C Listener questions and comments: Question from Godfr3y - I'm long VXX from 28.30 and long Jan 25 puts from $.55. Today I sold the Oct05 29.50 call for $.56. Thoughts? Should I just scrap the shares? Question from Piers - I'm long a bunch of VXX puts. I'm wondering if it is cheaper to buy VXX stock rather than the OTM calls to hedge against vol spikes over short periods like weekends or a few days. The underlying isn't going to suffer the same theta as the options and you get more deltas. Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 11.67 Mark S. - 12.15 Next week: Mark L. - 11.25 Mark S. - 12.14

Sep 24, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 321: Investigating VIX and Debunking VXX

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 12.2, down 2.2 from last show RVX - 13.9, down 2 points from last week VVIX - 91, nine handles lower than last show VIX Options - ADV: 459k, VIX call/put: 3/1, Total 8.66m (6.48m Calls, 2.18m Puts) Why go 1x2 when you can go 1x4!? VXX - 27.80, nearly 3 points lower than last show Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll VIX is threatening 15 and VXX is back above 30. Is this the return of volatility or just a blip? Quite simply - where will we be at the end of next week? 14% - Here: VIX=14, VXX=30 32% - Low: VIX= 15% - Lower: VIX= 39% - Higher: VIX= Listnener Questions and Comments: Question from Eleva7 - Since VXX erodes so aggressively is the best bet for long players to overwrite calls aggressively? Slight OTM, ATM or perhaps even ITM? Has anyone researched this to see if that outperforms long only? Comment from Louis Pena - Insider should create its own indicator. Some sort of VXX erosion indicator. The Erosionator? Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 13.75 Mark S. - 13.00 This week: Mark L. - 11.67 Mark S. - 12.75

Sep 17, 20181h 0m

Volatility Views 320: Talking VIX, VXX, SPX, TSLA, NVDA, BTC and more

Volatility Review: A look at last week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 14.4, up 2.4 from two weeks ago RVX - 15.90 VVIX - 100 - 7 handles higher than last show VIX Options - ADV: 459k, VIX call/put: 3.3/1, Total 7.62m (5.82m Calls, 1.80m Puts) VXX - 30.40, nearly 2-points higher than last show Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. 11.55 Mark S. - 11.95 This week: Mark L. - 13.75 Mark S. - 13.00

Sep 10, 20181h 1m

Best of Volatility Views 269: One More VXX Reverse Split

This episode was originally posted on August 28th, 2017. Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. The numbers: VIX Cash - 12.33, a high of 14.45 on Monday. VVIX - 100 CBOE Skew Index - 130 Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 764k, VIX Call/Put - 3.4, Total 11.5m (8.88m Calls, 2.66m Puts) VXX reverse split trade Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Comment from JLC - That $VIX 60 guy is just nuts. He's just trying to make a name for himself with that prediction. $SPX wld need to drop over 10% to be right. Question from FContangotrader - What is your thought on $VIXH? Maybe every episode you can give an intro into various Vol ETN and ETF. Thanks and keep with good work Comment from FContangotrader - Mark Sebastian, so how do you hedge your gamma and your mother in law? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week Mark L. - 13.55 Mark S. - 12 Kevin - 18.25 Guest - 14.30 This week Mark L. - 11.75 Mark S. - 11.00 Russell - 10.80

Aug 31, 20181h 3m

Volatility Views 319: Talking VIX, VXX, VOLI and NVDA Volatility

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 12, down one point from last week. VVIX - 93, ten handles lower than last week. VIX OPTIONS - ADV: 462k, VIX call/put: 3.3/1, Total 6.31m (4.83m Calls, 1.48m Puts) Return of the 1x2? VXX - 28.65, one and a half points lower than last week. Earnings Volatility: NVDA - ATM straddle: $16.50, approx. 6% VIX lawsuit press release - Kessler Topaz chosen as co-lead counsel overseeing national antitrust case alleging manipulation of CBOE's Volatility Index Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week We're talking about crypto derivatives at the @BlockchainVoice Conference. So this week we want to know which crypto product you'd like to see listed on a major venue next? Bitcoin Options Ripple Options/Futures Ether Options/Futures Litecoin Options/Futures Listener questions and comments Comment from Vixologist: VolTwits should listen to @ScottNations on latest installment of Volatility Views from @Options https://tinyurl.com/yb9uebww Scott talks about the alt volatility measures he has developed. Comment from Middling Radical: I have his thinkorswim indices up but confess I find the VIX complex and certain ratios just as helpful. Comment from FearMerchant: I have them on my screen and I was tracking a ratio of VIX/VOLI for a while to see when they diverge/converge. It proved to be of little value. Comment from David Lincoln : They have some good people on that show....... ;) Comment from FContangotrader: VIX at 12.28 and the market at ATH says everyone are hedged with puts SPX,VVIX over 100 says lot of VIX calls buying as a hedge also, market will break to the upside. Comment from Nathan L.: All these people buying VIX puts have me confused. How low can this vol bear trend really get - maybe 9? So the downside is quite limited. I definitely prefer bull call spreads in this environment with potentially selling OTM puts as a financing tool. Crystal BallL Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L.: 12.25 Mark S.: 11.95 Next week: Mark L.: 11.55 Mark S.: 11.95

Aug 27, 201859 min

Volatility Views 318: Exploring VIX Competitors with NationsShares

Volatility Review, featuring special guest Scott Nations, CNBC Contributor & Creator of VolDex. He discusses: An update on SkewDex/VolDex. Will Nasdaq list it soon? Does the current debate over VIX manipulation create an opportunity for VolDex, or does it muddy the waters for all volatility products? Is he hearing more clients and customers who are interested in a skew-less VIX? A look back at the week from a volatility perspective We 've had a volatility whipsaw recently - we 're up, then we 're down. VIX Cash - 13, slightly up from last week. VVIX - 103.5, higher than last week. VIX Options - ADV: 451k, VIX call/put: 2.9/1, Total 8.79m (6.56m Calls, 2.22m Puts) VXX - 30.25, slightly higher than last week. Volatility Voicemail: Listeners weigh in Question from B Bort - Why does skew exist in VIX options? Question from Lisl - I looked at VXX Jan 10 puts then ended up moving up the chain to the 20s. Got some ranging from $.65-$.82. So a little bit more but I think my odds are better. Although I could get 60-80 of the other puts for every one of these. Do you hate? Volatility flash poll: Play along with the Volatility Views crew and make your own guess for the Crystal Ball segment. Where will VIX be at 1pm Central on Friday (aka the end of the show). 12.5-12.99 13-13.49 13.5-13.99 14-14.5 Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 12.25 Andrew - 11.01 Guest - 13.05 This week: Mark L. - 12.25 Mark S. - 11.95

Aug 20, 20181h 2m

Volatility Views 317: Return of Dr. VIX

Volatility Review with very special guest co-host Russell Rhoads, Head of Derivatives Research at the Tabb Group. Volatility and selloffs return briefly during earning season. VIX Cash - 11.83, down slightly from last week. VVIX - 88, unchanged from last week. VIX Options - ADV: 440k, VIX call/put: 3/1, Total 7.95m (5.96m Calls, 1.99m Puts) VXX - 28.5, 2 points lower than last week. Volatility options question of the week: VXX has finally broken through the 30 handle. Many of you are fascinated with the ongoing saga of the VXX Jan 10 Puts. OI is over 200k and thousands continue to trade for $.01. Our question: Would you trade these puts? 57% - Yes: Buy for $.01 14% - Yes: Sell for $.01 23% - No. It's Just Gambling 6% - I have enough VXX Puts Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say Question from VolBug - When it's all said and done, is the bottom line that all inverse VIX products, whether short term or mid-term, can be subject to an acceleration event like SVXY given a high enough spike in the VIX? Thanks! Question from LL09 - Are you guys still trading these things? Saw 1k go up yesterday. Was that meatball? Comment from LVAC2 - Etrade wants to charge me $159.95 to buy 200 of those VXX Jan 10 puts. That's highway robbery! Crystal Ball: Getting our prognosticating on Last week: Mark L. -11.45 Mark S. -12.76 Guest - 12.05 This week: Mark L. -12.25 Andrew -11.01 Russell - 13.05

Aug 13, 20181h 2m

Volatility Views 316: So Much Love for VXX Puts

Volatility Review: A review of the week from a volatility point of view, featuring guest co-host David Lincoln of The Short Vol Show. VIX Cash - 11.83, down slightly from last week. VVIX - 88, three-points lower than last week. VIX Options - ADV: 440k, VIX call/put: 2.9/1, Total 6.44m (4.79m Calls, 1.64m Puts) VXX - 30.5, half a point lower than last week. Earnings Volatility: Apple, Tesla, Activision/Blizzard, Shake Shack, Blue Apron, Go Pro and Cboe Volatility Voicemail: Listners take over Options question of the week: Earnings season is still in full swing. Which names will dominate your #Options trading this week? 46% - Apple, $AAPL 40% - Tesla, $TSLA 8% - GoPro, $GPRO 6% - CBOE, $CBOE Listener questions and comments: Question from Nils - You guys buying any more of those VXX puts? Question from Roxy -Explain to me again how buying thousands of worthless January puts in VXX is a good trade? Question from Elan - My broker doesn't list the $VIX futures alongside the options. It's damn confusing! Why don't they all just post them so I can see what I'm trading my options on? Instead I have to pull up a separate platform with the futures quotes so I can make sense of it all. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. -12.45 Andrew -13.25 This week: Mark L. -11.45 Mark S. -12.76 David - 12.05

Aug 6, 20181h 0m

Volatility Views 315: VIX Worm Turns, Plus FB, AMZN and More

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective Trump threatens $500B more tariffs, the market still shrugs. VIX Cash - 12.14 VVIX - 91, nine points lower than last week. VIX Options - ADV: 460k, VIX call/put: 3.1/1, Total 6.44m (4.79m Calls, 1.64m Puts) VXX - 30.5, ADV: 248k, Total 2.49m (1.20m Calls, 1.30m Puts) Earnings: Monday - Google Tuesday - AT&T, Verizon Wednesday - UPS, Boeing, Coca Cola, GM, FB, PayPal, Qualcomm Thursday - Amazon, McDonalds, Comcast, Starbucks, Nokia Friday - Twitter, Merck Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments? Question from Vizinator - Are there $VXX equivalents for Nasdaq, Dow and Russell? Comment from Paul F. - Andrew should change his VIX zones to go negative to indicate when VIX is in drawdown mode. Also, shame on him for nickeling Longo on Crystal Ball. He should lose just for that. Question from Dawiz - Gun to head, best VIX options strategy? No dawdling. Top of your head. Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week's guesses: Mark L. - 12.23 Andrew - 12.22 This week's guesses: Mark L. - 12.45 Andrew - 13.25

Jul 30, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 314: Talking VIX and VXX; plus NFLX and MSFT Volatility

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective More trade war! Trump threatens $500B more tariffs, the market shrugs. VIX Cash - 12.50 VVIX - 100 VIX Options - ADV: 460k, VIX call/put: 3.1/1, Total 5.42m (4.09m Calls, 1.34m Puts) VXX - 31, ADV: 255k Earnings: Netflix and Microsoft Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say QOTW: Trading Options during earnings season can be challenging. Some live for it while others avoid it. Do you hold Options positions through Earnings announcements? If so, what is your approach? Or do you prefer to trade just before/after the event? Or is it all too risky? 28% - Yes, Short Premium 20% - Yes, Long Premium 25% - No, Too Risky 27% - I trade around the event QOTW, part deux: Yup it's earnings season once again. Options traders are gearing up for a busy season. Which names do you think will dominate your options trading this season? NFLX AMZN TSLA GOOGL Listener questions and comments: Question from BigDawg - Are there any of the proprietary vol indicators out there that you guys follow regularly? Question from Lil Vig - Is VXX the greatest trading vehicle ever created? So much sweet erosion. Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. -12.20 Andrew -12.25 Guest - 11.99 Next week: Mark L. - 12.23 Andrew - 12.22

Jul 23, 201859 min

Volatility Views 313: Talking Short Volatility

Volatility Review: Today's guest is David Lincoln, ex-CBOE Market Maker and Host of The Short Vol Show on YouTube. A look back at the week from a volatility perspective: What trade war? The market has rallied almost non-stop post Trump trade war VIX Cash - 12.50, 1.25 point lower than last week. VVIX - 101, almost unchanged from last week. VIX Option - ADV: 496k, VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 7.89m (5.82m Calls, 2.07m Puts) Risk reversals keep popping up. VXX - 31.6, 3 points lower than last week. VIX ETF love affair endures as volatility falls Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week, part one. Traders generally fade volatility going into holidays (today notwithstanding). What's your favorite vehicle when you want to wager on the dark side of volatility? Short-term or Long-term - that's up to you. 27% - Short VIX Futures 17% - Long $VIX Puts/Spread 33% - Long $VXX Puts/Spread 23% - Short $VIX Calls/Spreads Options question of the week, part two. Trading options during earnings season can be challenging. Some live for it while others avoid it. Do you hold options positions through earnings announcements? If so, what is your approach? Or do you prefer to trade just before/after the event? Or is it all too risky? Yes, Short Premium Yes, Long Premium No, Too Risky I trade around the event Listener questions and comments: Question from Vixland -Why would these puts gain value? $VXX never crashes down. Please explain. Love the shows. KEEP IT UP! Comment from Beachlot - With on the story from Bloomberg last week. They should be embarrassed writing a story on a 70k vol trade. Question from BT Burg - What is the best way to trade these inverse VIX ETFs going forward? If I'm long XIV does it make sense to always have some VIX calls in my back pocket just in case? Doesn't that get expensive really quick? What about spy puts? Or should I just have puts on the inverse ETF in case the counterparties get cold feet? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. -12.50 Mark S. -12.90 Guest -13.63 This week: Mark L. - 12.20 Andrew - 12.25 Guest - 11.99

Jul 16, 20181h 2m

Volatility Views 312: VIX Laughs At Trade Wars

Volatility Review: What trade war? The market rallies despite the fact that the trade war has begun. Market review: VIX Cash - 13.75, 1.25-points lower than last week. VVIX - 103, almost unchanged from last week. VIX Options - ADV: 496K, VIX call/put: 2.7/1, Total 7.04m (5.16m Calls, 1.88m Puts) A lot of VIX risk reversals hitting the tape today. VXX - 34.6,0.5-points lower than last week. Volatility Voicemail: Flash poll Which product or complex will experience the greatest #Volatility going forward as a result of this trade war? Gold? Crude Oil? Equities? Soybeans? Soybeans Gold Crude Oil Equities Options question of the week: Traders generally fade volatility going into holidays (today notwithstanding). What's your favorite vehicle when you want to wager on the dark side of volatility? Short-term or Long-term - that's up to you. Short VIX Futures Long VIX Puts/Spread Long VXX Puts/Spread Short VIX Calls/Spreads Listener questions and comments Question from LVist - Are you guys as surprised as me by VXX's stubbornness? It refuses to break the 30 handle. Question from Casey - Is it me or is the vol space much more boring after VIX/SVXY? Those were my two favs. Seems like there's not much to take their place. What's the new short vol play? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. -12.55 Mark S. -12.95 This week: Mark L. - 12.50 Mark S. - 12.90 Guest - 13.63

Jul 9, 201859 min

Volatility Views 311: Giving You Your Weekly VIX Fix

Volatility Review: Looking back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 15 VVIX - 104 VIX Options - ADV: 496k, VIX call/put: 2.7/1, Total 6.78m (4.96m Calls, 1.81m Puts) VXX - was 40, now 35. Hedge Fund That Made 6,000% on VIX Jump Bets on Next Blow-Up - What is UVXY? UVXY: Big ETF Outflows Options Questions of the Week: We ask, you answer This Week's Question: Crude Oil has been on a tear this week. We know that many of you are trading options on this hot commodity. Quite simply - which options product are you using to slake your thirst for Crude Oil? WTI? USO? XLE? WTI USO XLE Other Last Week's Question: Let's have some fun. These "entertainment" stocks are pricing in big moves. Gun to your head: Which July ATM straddle would you rather own in your portfolio? WWE? DIS? WYNN? SEAS? WWE July ATM Strad: 7 WYNN July ATM Strad: 12 SEAS July ATM Strad: 2 DIS July ATM Strad: 5 Listener questions and comments: Question from Btburg:What is the best way to trade these inverse VIX ETFs going forward? If I'm long XIV does it make sense to always have some VIX calls in my back pocket just in case? Doesn't that get expensive really quick? What about spy puts? Or should I just have puts on the inverse ETF in case the counterparties get cold feet? Question from BFolk - I like the suggestion of a short 30 or 60-day call 1x2 in VXX to hedge my longer term puts. How did that strat work out this week? Something like sell near OTM buy 2 farther OTM same month. May help motivate me to put some on this week. Question from Folfox - @Options Do you prefer iron condor vs. iron butterfly? (I know 1 strategy won't work every time, but what scenario is preferred). Question from RevTimTom - What's your favorite way to trade skew? Question from Gglee - Buying collars means buying skew and paying up. So does it stand that the best spy trade is selling skew by selling 25 delta puts and buying 25 delta calls? Maybe add a cheap hedge with 5 or 10 delta put in case worst comes to pass? Right now I can sell the SPY Oct 25D put for .55, buy the Oct 25D call for .55 and then buy put hedge for about .20 net outlay. Thoughts? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. -12.05 Mark S. -11.55 This week: Mark L. - 12.55 Mark S. - 12.95

Jul 2, 201852 min

Volatility Views 310: VIX Fixes, Fiddy Cent and VXX Ratios

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective Fiddy cent returns Seagull spread? VIX cash: 14.64 Tweaks to VIX VVIX: 107.50 Google interest: Top five states with the most interest in volatility (Mark S. got 2/5) Google interest: Top five states with the most interest in VIX VIX options Big call and put strips The VXX whiff of weirdness Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say Options Question of the Week: Let's have some fun. These "entertainment" stocks are pricing in big moves. Gun to your head: Which July ATM straddle would you rather own in your portfolio? WWE? DIS? WYNN? SEAS? #DegeneratePremiumBuyers #PalmsIn #FearNoTheta WWE July ATM Strad: $7 WYNN July ATM Strad: $12 SEAS July ATM Strad: $2 DIS July ATM Strad: $5 Listener questions and comments: Question from Rick S.: What exactly does it mean to roll positions the week of expiration? Question fro Telly0: Are there any long VIX vehicles that don't erode to zero? Comment from JTack: Looks like call front spreads (short 1 near OTM, long 2 farther OTM) in VXX are the best way to hedge long term VXX puts. That way you're covered against a blowup but you're not shelling out a ton for straight up calls or verticals. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last guess: Mark L. 11.85 Andrew: 11.80 Mark S. 11.55 This week: Mark S. 11.55 Mark L. 12.05

Jun 25, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 309: Vol Views Live from the Pro Trader Summit

This episode was recorded live at the Option Pit Pro Trader Summit. Andrew, Mark and Mark take the show on the road. Analysis, wit, and wisdom ensued.

Jun 15, 201826 min

Volatility Views 308: Forth the Vol Hunters

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: 12.21 and as high as 13.30. VVIX - 93 VIX Options - ADV: 535k, VIX call/put: 2.6/1, Total 7.95m (5.78m Calls, 2.17m Puts) The return of the 1x2? Plenty of call love yesterday Paper sells call June vertical yesterday Volatility Voicemail: Flash poll! Let's stick with our Volatility theme to round out the week. Quite simply - which product do you think has the highest 30-day implied Volatility? No cheating (or checking with your broker)! What does your gut tell you? VIX? Bitcoin? TSLA? RUSSELL2000? RUT? IWM? 34% - Tesla, TSLA 21% - VIX 35% - Bitcoin 10% - Russell 2000: Emini, RUT Listener questions and comments Question from Lisag - I'm confused. Why would someone by such an outlandish vertical in a product that essentially rots to zero? Comment from Kaijan - I would sell that VXX July call spread all day long. In fact I did! Thx for giving me the idea on your last show. Keep up the vol fun! Question from Deville - Great show. How do I get my volatility fund profiled on Volatility Views? Question from FNews2 - Do you think eliminating the traditional earning call would be a bad move for vol traders? I kind of take the view that it would smooth things out and make it a little less likely to get run over. Crazy? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. -12.95 Mark S. - 12.50 This week: Mark L. - 11.85 Andrew - 11.55

Jun 11, 20181h 1m

Volatility Views 307: Where Are 50 Cent and the VIX Whale?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 15.43, 3 points higher than last week. VVIX - 95, 5 points higher than last week. VIX Options - ADV: 557k (substantially lower than last show), VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 7.00m (5.14m Calls, 1.85m Puts) What about the roll from June to July 37.5? VXX - 35, 1 point lower than last week. Paper buys buys size VXX July call spread. VIX-mageddon revisited: it's the buyers who disappeared Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Holiday Weekends are notoriously tough for VIX traders. The markets love to crush Volatility going into these events. So we thought we'd poll the savvy VIX traders in our audience - where do you think VIX will OPEN on Tues 5/29? 39% - Here: 12-14 30% - Higher: 14-16 18% - Lower: 10.5-12 13% - Much Higher: >16 Flash Poll: Let's stick with our Volatility theme to round out the week. Quite simply - which product do you think has the highest 30-day implied Volatility? No cheating (or checking with your broker)! What does your gut tell you? VIX? Bitcoin? TSLA? RUSSELL2000? RUT? IWM? Tesla, TSLA VIX Bitcoin Russell 2000: Emini, RUT Listener questions and comments: Comment from Charles Montgomery Burns releasethehounds -I enjoyed listening to the broadcast today. Excellent Question from Ned Brown - I wish it was made clear in these articles that the problem seems to be around settlement in the VIX. A good idea on orders to bring more liquidity into the settlement. I assumed the big volatility was the reason crypto options weren't being pushed. Has anyone asked the SEC about them? Question from Bellat - What do you think of crypto Vol at these levels particularly bitcoin? Are you guys doing any trading even though there aren't really any true options available yet? Question from Pilz - Did we ever uncover the mystery behind 50 cent? Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. -12.95 Mark S. -13.50 This week: Mark L. -12.95 Mark S. - 12.50

Jun 4, 201859 min

Volatility Views 306: Setting Things Straight on VIX Manipulation

Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Tom Lee, Managing Director at Investment Strategy and Research at Parametric. He discusses: What is Parametric? Who are their customers? What do they trade? Harvesting risk premium VIX: Is it rigged? Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 12.53 VVIX - 90.5 VIX Options - ADV: 592k, VIX call/put: 2.8/1, Total 6.67m (4.94m Calls, 1.72m Puts) VXX - 33.81 Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Holiday Weekends are notoriously tough for VIX traders. The markets love to crush Volatility going into these events. So we thought we'd poll the savvy VIX traders in our audience - where do you think VIX will OPEN on Tues 5/29? Here: 12-14 Higher: 14-16 Lower: 10.5-12 Much Higher: >16 Listener questions and comments: Comment from James1 - I took a flyer on a couple hundred VXX Jan 10 puts for .03 after learning about them on your shows. Seems like I'm not alone as a few hundred thousand others appear to have joined the party. It's a fairly cheap roll of the dice on long term VIX erosion without massive risk or expense. Question from Malik - VXX puts to spec on contango in VIX futures makes sense to me. Do you think it's worth it to have a few VXX OTM call spreads in the back pocket as well to help protect or spec on a few reversals that buck the long-term trend? Or is it just wasted money on anything bullish VXX? Question from TGeek -Thx for the show. Can you include a breakdown of OTC variance swaps on an upcoming episode? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. -13.25 Mark S. - 12.75 This week: Mark L. - 12.95 Mark S. - 13.50

May 29, 201857 min

Volatility Views 305: Picking VIX Is Easy

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 13.43, almost unchanged from last week. VVIX - 93 VIX Options - ADV: 592k, VIX call/put: 2.7/1, Total 5.86m (4.26m Calls, 1.59m Puts) VXX - 34.87 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Trevor Salsman - Why no love for ZIV on volatility views? Comment from Tom Frank - Not sure I agree with your consensus that covered calls are better for novice options traders. Puts typically have higher implied volatility and should generate higher returns than covered calls over time and have a better risk/reward. The novices would probably appreciate the higher returns. Question from OliveTrader2 - What kind of volatility reaction should we expect if trade talks are successful or unsuccessful? Question from Bruce Stern - I know that contango in VIX futures is the best scenario to foster VXX erosion. But is there a particular degree of slope or term structure that is optimal for maximum roll decay in the VXX product? Or is it just a question of the steeper the term structure slope the better? Question from NMZ56 - Not sure my fav vol product has been invented yet. Outside of a truly tradable cash VIX, maybe we need some sort of cool earnings volatility product. Maybe something that allows you to trade the straddle without actually having to trade it? I think that would open the strategy up to more people. Question from MTimes - What do you guys think of UPRO? Does the levered nature of this product make it a decent stand-in for some of the other vol products out there that have been defanged recently like SVXY or delisted like XIV? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 13.55 Mark S. - 12.75 This week: Mark L. - 13.25 Mark S. - 12.75

May 21, 201859 min

Volatility Views 304: Is Spikes the Next Big Thing?

Volatility Viewpoint: Today's special guest is Shelly Brown, EVP, MIAX He discusses: SPIKES volatility index What is it? And more... Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 13.25 VVIX – 93 VXX - 36.50 VIX Options - ADV: 671k, VIX call/put: 2.7/1, Total 8.31m (6.02m Calls, 2.30m Puts) Goldman: Retail volume 'leapt to the highest levels in at least a decade' in early 2018 Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say Question from James Emmett - What's your take on the new Spikes volatility product? Question from Union J. - Will we ever have a VIX index product that we can actually buy and sell? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. -16.05 Mark S. -14.25 Guest - 15.25 This week: Mark L. -13.55 Mark S. -12.75

May 14, 201855 min