USSC Briefing Room

This week, co-hosts Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper discuss their latest polling report, One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance which surveyed respondents in Australia, the United States and Japan. It covers all the issues most relevant to the Australia-US alliance and regional relationships at this time. Are attitudes towards China heating up or cooling down? Where is public opinion at on AUKUS at the moment? If Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, what does this mean for the Australia-US alliance? Tune in to find out all the latest numbers.

This month has been incredibly tumultuous in US politics. We had the historic ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, courtroom drama in the cases against former president Trump and war breaking out in Israel. Republican disunity appears to be near breaking point. To help make sense of the fast-moving dynamics, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith provides a breakdown of the latest and what to expect moving forward.What does the House speaker race reveal about the Republican Party? If convicted of a crime, would President Trump serve jail time? Where is the Republican Party on support for Israel?Tune in for answers to these questions and more.Publications mentioned in the podcast:Religious Persecution and Political Order in the United States

Next week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is heading to the United States for an official visit with President Biden, including a state dinner. Two USSC experts have staffed state visits before, one on the US side and one on the Australian side – CEO Dr Michael Green and Senior Economic Adviser Dr John Kunkel. Their inside perspectives can give us a better understanding of what goes on behind the scenes for these sort of high-profile visits. What’s at stake? What sort of role do these visits play? Does this visit make up for the cancelled Quad trip? In this episode, they share the triumphs and foibles of past state visits (including the Trump-Morrison visit in 2019) and analyse what Prime Minister Albanese needs to be prepared for before touching down in the United States.

AUKUS Pillar II is focused on accelerating advanced capabilities, but innovation in technology is dominated by tech companies and financed through private finance. In order advance this technology for defence new funding sources, collaboration and mindset shifts across government and industry is essential. Over 2023 USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer and Senior Economic Advisor Dr John Kunkel hosted a series of workshops with leaders in defence innovation, tech companies and private finance from Australia and the United States to look for solutions to unlocking private sector investment to drive Australia’s defence capability and innovation. If the government provides billions of dollars to the Department of Defence, why do they need financing from the private sector? How does the current defence – tech – finance ecosystem threaten AUKUS Pillar II? What does private sector finance stand to gain from investing in defence innovation? Tune in to this episode to get the readout from Hayley Channer and John Kunkel following their workshops with government, the tech sector and private finance. Read the UPSCALE report here

In this special episode, we share a recording of the panel discussion at the launch event for USSC’s new Women in the Alliance initiative. It featured Aurora Education Foundation CEO and American Australian Association Ltd in Australia Chair Leila Smith, Representative for Lindsay Melissa McIntosh MP and ABC journalist and broadcaster Geraldine Doogue in conversation with Research Editor Victoria Cooper. Women in the Alliance brings together a diverse group of female professionals for exclusive opportunities designed to advance and accelerate their careers, amplify their expertise and expand their professional network. Applications to join the inaugural network close on 30 September 2023. More information here.

USSC CEO Dr Michael Green was working for the White House National Security Council during the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. He describes the chaos of the evacuation and the significant changes for US alliances with Australia and others across the globe in the wake of the attack. What was the atmosphere in the White House when they heard the news? What changed after 9/11? What did this mean for US alliances then and now? Dr Green shares his inside perspective and reflections on how this has changed the Australia-US alliance, 22 years on. Read the reflections from President George W. Bush and Prime Minister John Howard 20 years after 9/11 in their contributions to The Alliance at 70 here.

The Foreign Policy and Defence team co-host the deterrence dialogue with the Pacific Forum. This year was the first year back in DC since COVID. Defence representatives from both the United States and Australia were there and Ambassador Kevin Rudd presented a keynote address. What are the areas of alignment and difference between the US and Australia? What issues rose to the fore? What changed as a result of the dialogue?Foreign Policy and Defence Director Professor Peter Dean and Research Associate Alice Nason address these questions in discussion with Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck.

As the US 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls prepare for the first debate, USSC Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith and Research Editor Victoria Cooper spoke with Research Director Jared Mondschein to give a breakdown on the candidates and the odds of anyone besting former president Trump. What happened to Ron DeSantis? Will the legal challenges to Trump derail his campaign? Does anyone stand a chance of surging past Trump to secure the nomination? To read more on the 2024 Republican race, we recommend the following USSC analysis:Why the 2024 US presidential election will likely be a choice between Biden and Trump again by Victoria CooperEvangelical Christians are crucial voters in Republican primaries. Would they support DeSantis or Trump? by David SmithIndictment unlikely to erode Trump support by Victoria CooperYes, federal charges against a former president are unprecedented — but so is Trump’s political power by Jared Mondschein

With the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) and the joint Talisman Sabre exercise between Australian and US defence forces now officially wrapped up, USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean and Research Fellow in the program Blake Herzinger give a deep-dive on all the latest developments in the maritime security space. Why are submarines getting so much attention lately? How do AUSMIN announcements stack up against the advice in Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review? And what’s the big deal about the USS Canberra? All these questions and more are answered in this latest episode. To read more about the outcomes from this year’s AUSMIN, check out the latest USSC analysis below: Outside the Briefing Room | In conversation with USSC experts Tom Corben, Georgia Edmonstone and Alice Nason USSC Insights | Walking the talk at AUSMIN with Stephen Loosley AUSMIN 2023 explained by Tom Corben and Alice Nason

United States Studies Centre Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic attended the NATO Vilnius Summit at the end of her sabbatical in Europe. At the summit this year, Ukraine was once again the main focus. Will Ukraine be given a timeline to enter NATO and what conditions do they need to meet? What is NATO going to do about Russia’s invasion which has brought war to Europe? And how has NATO’s stance towards China changed? Gorana gives a readout of everything you need to know about the summit and what she picked up from being in the room that wasn’t covered in the news.For more from Gorana on the NATO Summit read her article for The Conversation and her USSC Insights write-up.

After decades of unprecedented growth the Chinese economy slowed due to COVID-19 and the easing restrictions did not bring the anticipated economic boom. USSC Visiting Fellow and former White House staffer Dan Rosen speaks with Research Director Jared Mondschein about the stagnating growth of China’s economy and implications for the region.Did China’s growth based on so much debt mean they will “fall off the charts” economically? Where will the Chinese economy be in five years and what will this mean for the United States and Australia?For more on this topic, watch a replay of Rosen's event, How Australia can navigate US-China economic battles.

USSC Honorary Associate Dr Harry Melkonian breaks down the recent major US Supreme Court decisions from affirmative action to dismantling President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program. While most cases may not seem as significant as when the court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the repercussions of this year's decisions will still have a lasting effect. Ending affirmative action undoes nearly 50 years of precedent. Other decisions will have a direct impact on the 2024 election and the rights of businesses to turn down same-sex clients. Which cases were decided along ideological lines and which saw crossover? Why was there a different split on the independent state legislature doctrine? How far can the free speech argument for turning down business for same-sex couples be extended after the court’s ruling? Harry discusses the significant cases with USSC's Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck.Music by Dan Phillipson, licensed through PremiumBeat

USSC Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow Bruce Wolpe released his latest book, Trump’s Australia: How Trumpism changed Australia and the shocking consequences of a second term the week after former President Trump was officially indicted on federal charges. In this episode, Bruce and USSC Research Editor Victoria Cooper, who worked as a research assistant on the book, sit down with Mari Koeck to break down the probability of a Trump win in 2024 and what it would mean for both the United States and Australia.What are the odds of a Trump victory in 2024? How would the impacts of a second term be different from the first? Could a candidate like Trump ever be elected in Australia?Read Bruce’s book, Trump’s Australia for more on this topic.Music by Dan Phillipson, licensed through PremiumBeat

Are we in a Cold War and are there parallels from President Reagan’s term to now? On this episode of the USSC Briefing Room, we were joined by Dr William Inboden, Executive Director and William Powers Jr Chair at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas-Austin and author of The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War and the World on the Brink. He wrote the US Government’s national security strategy in 2006 and shares both his historic and strategic insights about what lessons we can glean from Reagan on everything from de-escalating with China to the future of the Republican Party.What parallels are there between the former Soviet Union and China today? Is the current competition with China a battle of ideas? Dr Inboden shares his insights from history and recommendations moving forward.Music by Dan Phillipson, licensed through PremiumBeat

After a recent trip to Washington featuring high-level discussions at the White House, Pentagon, State Department and Congress, the United States Studies Centre’s Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean and Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer talk with Research Associate Victoria Cooper about the common threads and key takeaways from discussions with Washington and Canberra insiders.What is Washington’s take on AUKUS and ITAR reform? How optimistic are they about the future of the Quad? The USSC team give a readout on the views of Australia from Washington DC.Resources mentioned in this episode:Report on ITAR reforms by William Greenwalt and Tom Corben — Breaking the barriers: Reforming US export controls to realise the potential of AUKUSMusic by Dan Phillipson, licensed through PremiumBeat

In April, USSC hosted the Sunnylands Initiative, which brought together more than two dozen thought leaders on democracy from across the Indo-Pacific to advance ideas that strengthen democratic governance in the region. United States Studies Centre CEO Dr Michael Green and Founder and CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab Bridi Rice talk with USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein about the state of democracy in the region and the distinct differences in Australian and American approaches to supporting the region’s democracies.What was the significance of holding the Sunnylands Initiative in Australia? How far apart are Australian and American approaches to democracy promotion? What was achieved through this year’s gathering? Mike and Bridi share their perspectives and what’s next after Sunnylands.Read more about the Sunnylands Initiative in Sydney, including the 2023 Joint Statement at https://www.ussc.edu.au/research/the-sunnylands-initiativeMusic by Dan Phillipson, licensed through PremiumBeat