UPTHINKING FINANCE

I’ve been lifting weights since my early 20s. I’ve done everything from playing basketball to mixed martial arts. Recently, I found CrossFit. Running a gym as a whole is a difficult business to manage. Jason Jamison and his wife Tessa are co-owners of the CrossFit Modern gym in Long Beach, CA. Jason played hockey when he was nine. He taught P90X classes for a while before experiencing a CrossFit workout. It was love at first sweat. He started teaching in a local park and opened his own gym in 2019.He’s competed in 11 CrossFit open events. He’s reached the quarterfinals four times, the regionals twice, and just recently he competed in the Worldwide Rogue 1,000-pound challenge and finished 61st in the world. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Jason shares some of the struggles and triumphs he’s faced as a gym owner and what he’s learned on his journey of self-discovery that’s made a positive impact in all areas of his life. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...What is CrossFit? How is it different from a normal workout? [3:33]Jason’s passion for movement drove the life of his business [7:57] Why Jason decided to open a CrossFit gym [10:36] The financial challenges faced running a gym [15:26]Navigating gym ownership during the Covid pandemic [18:35]Working through depression changed Jason’s outlook [25:00]Finding one’s identity outside of what they do or have done [34:16]CrossFit is built so that you can adapt and grow in every way [40:58]Jason Jamison is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Connect With Jason JamisonCrossFit ModernConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Behavioral finance emerged in the late 80s to address why people make the investment decisions they make. According to DALBAR, the S&P 500 averaged 9.5% in 2021 and the average investor only averaged a return of 3.6%. The question becomes, what happened to that extra 5.9% of gains? The role of emotion in making decisions when to buy and sell is saignificant.Today’s guest is Paul Strehle, President and Senior Portfolio Manager at USA Mutual Advisors Inc. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Paul will share how to understand why people make decisions—and how to profit from them. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...How Paul got into qualitative analysis [2:54]How Paul’s portfolio strategy works [11:36] Accept small losses for the long-term wins [13:17] The psychology of herd mentality [16:09] Everyone trades on their own interests [25:39] How people react to managed futures [30:46] What drives Paul to choose the “hard road” [37:00] Paul Strehle is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedA Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful InvestingThe Man Who Solved the MarketThe Wisdom of CrowdsMarket WizardsConnect With Paul StrehleUSA MutualsConnect on LinkedInConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

The Iditarod is a sled dog race that covers 1,000 miles of Alaska that happens every March (and just celebrated its 50th anniversary). Dallas Seavey is the youngest ever to run and win the race, accomplishing this at age 25. Now 36, he’s only the second Iditarod racer to win the race five times. In this episode of Upthining Finance™, Dallas brings us deep into the world of sled dog racing. He shares what managing the financial side looks like, how he leverages the tourism industry to fund his kennel, and his goals for the future. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...How an 18-year-old builds a sled dog team [2:13] What changed after Dallas won his first race [6:53] Managing the financial side of dog racing [10:31] The challenges that come alongside success [14:46] How sponsorship works in the mushing world [20:25] Dallas’s experience on “Race to Survive: Alaska” [24:08] Leveraging the tourism industry to fund mushing [26:22] Dallas’s goals in both racing and business [33:13] Finnmarksløpet: Europe’s dog-sled race [38:16] Learn more about AK Sled Dog Tours [43:21] How an 18-year-old builds a sled dog teamDallas has been mushing dogs his entire life. His grandfather started mushing dogs when his dad was only four. Dallas and his brothers grew up in the sport. He was always surrounded by 60–100 dogs. He was also the youngest person to ever race in and complete the Iditarod. Most people start running for a kennel as interns trying to move up the ranks. They work with dogs around two years old, with the lead being older. When Dallas raced for the first time, the goal wasn’t to win—the goal was to build better sled dogs so they could come back as better athletes. They’d be rookies on the pro team the following year. It was an educational experience and a lot of responsibility. He and his brothers learned how to manage an entire operation including managing staff, vehicles, equipment, and the dogs. If they broke down during the race, they couldn’t just call for help. They had to figure it out. They became self-sufficient quite young. Dallas started his own kennel when he was 21. Dallas always looks at where his team is relative to the competition. He looks at where other mushers have gotten hung up. He studies why some racers have raced 20+ times and never won. He looks for room to improve. He focuses attention on the weakest points of his teams to continue to improve. People tend to avoid where they need to improve. Managing the financial side of dog racingBut finances are also a large part of the sport. You have to be great business managers so they aren’t handicapped on the finance side. Financing affects the team in many ways, including the number of dogs they can maintain and train. If you have a larger group of dogs to choose from, you can develop better individual athletes.For every 10 dogs, you need another human to develop and train those dogs. There’s a tremendous amount of work that goes into the physical development and individual needs of each dog. The infrastructure has to grow to correlate with the number of dogs. And there are a million financial things to consider, from equipment, to feed, supplements, and more.Managing the financial aspects also includes sponsorships, tourism, public speaking, etc. If something has a positive return, you can’t turn it down. It can be a time strain. You have to love what you do to make this a career. Dallas is training and managing people to create more than a one-man organization. His focus is creating systems that make success repeatable.Leveraging the tourism industry to fund mushingTourism is Dallas’s primary source of funding for his operation. They offer three unique tour venues.He owns over 100 acres where guests can mush their own team of dogs. The trails are designed for novice mushers to really experience what it’s like. Visitors can also tour where the dogs live, play, and train. They learn what the life of a sled dog looks like, all the way from being puppies to retirement.In the summertime, they have two operations. One is where guests can take a helicopter to a glacier where there’s snow all summer long. Once there, they can take a tour with a dog team on snow. The scenery is breathtaking. In Talkeetna, they’ve developed a four-wheeled bicycle that can be pulled by the dogs on a custom trail. It’s as similar to mushing in the snow as possible. It brings in funds with the added bonus of keeping the dogs mentally active and busy.How do sponsorships work in the mushing world? What was it like racing the Finnmarksløpet (Europe’s dog-sled race)? Listen to learn more about the ins and outs of sled dog racing!Dallas Seavey not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial profession

Over the years we’ve been married, we’ve been blessed to have five cats and seven dogs. We rescued all but one of them. We adopted two of them from Shadow Husky Rescue—Hatchi and Storm. Today’s guest Tim McVicker—also known as Master Wolf ™—is the President of Shadow Husky Rescue, the #1 Husky Rescue in California. Shadow Husky Rescue’s mission is to rescue Huskies and provide them with a second chance at living full lives. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Tim and Liz share more about their rescue, what the foster-to-adopt process is like, and what you can do to support them.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why Tim chose to run a Husky rescue [3:23] What’s special about the Husky breed? [5:28] How do you start an animal rescue? [6:27] The typical dog fostering and adoption process [8:34] How they cover the costs associated with a dog rescue [16:07]What happens when they get a phone call from a shelter [21:15] Tim and Liz’s favorite dog rescue story [28:04]How to learn more about Shadow Husky Rescue [31:37]Connect With Tim and Elizabeth McVickerwww.shadowhuskyrescue.comShadow Husky Rescue on InstagramFollow Shadow Husky Rescue on FacebookConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

The people I’ve interviewed are inspiring. They aren’t just in this field for financial gain but are passionate about what they do. One year ago I had my first interview with Alex Krainer. In honor of the anniversary of this podcast, Alex Krainer will join me again. Alex is the founder of Krainer Analytics and the creator of I-System Trend Following. Alex is a former market analyst, Futures trader, and hedge fund manager. Alex also authors the daily “Trend Compass Report,” with both economic and political commentary. In this episode, we talk about the large-scale developments happening in Eurasia, the significance of the Federal Reserve, and why we can remain hopeful about the future. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The shift in economic alliances in the East [4:24]Why is there resistance? [10:28]Where are things headed economically? [15:30] The success of Germany's decentralized banking system [22:20] The significance of the Federal Reserve [29:45] Why we can remain hopeful about the future [37:38]Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Connect With Alex KrainerConnect on LinkedInConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

What do you know about gold? Why is it an asset that we see as valuable? Why are people drawn to it in times of uncertainty? Gold is often touted as a hedge against inflation. So is an investment in Gold worth it? Max Belmont—a Senior Research Analyst with First Eagle Management—joins me in this episode to cover all things AU 79. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...What drew Max Belmont to Gold/precious metals [2:13] How do you manage a precious metal? [4:04]What drives the profitability of a mining company? [9:54] Factors to consider when investing in mine startups [17:09] What happens to gold after it’s mined? [19:49] Why would you want gold in your portfolio? [22:40] The arguments for paper gold versus physical gold [30:07] How to measure success as a gold portfolio manager [34:37] Max shares his favorite mining research trip [36:37] How do you manage a precious metal?Max’s job is researching gold mining entities. He reads quarterly and annual reports. He meets with management teams. He looks at earnings transcripts. He even goes and visits active mines. It is the pursuit to build a mosaic that validates or negates an investment thesis. Max focuses on understanding if a mining business is viable and what could go wrong. Max shares that since gold was discovered, all of the gold that’s ever been mined and sits in above-ground stock (jewelry, in banks, etc.) amounts to approximately 210,000 metric tons. All of the gold that has ever been mined fits in a cube the size of a tennis court. Gold doesn’t rust or tarnish. Gold is an asset that is dense and scarce. It’s always in limited supply. Gold is also becoming harder to mine. The gold industry is worth around 500 billion dollars. What drives the profitability of a mining company?A gold miner cannot set the price of gold—the market sets it. The only thing that miners can do is work on their cost structure. A large part of their costs is on labor, consumables, and energy. The topline is impacted by how many ounces of gold the miner produces. That is a function of the throughput, the grade, and the recovery rate: Throughput: This is how much you can dig up. One million tons? Two million?The grade: What is the grade of the gold deposit? Some areas of a mine have a higher grade than others. It’s different in underground mines versus open pits. The recovery rate: Most mills can’t recover 100% of the gold; there is always a small loss that must be accounted for. If you were expecting one million ounces in a deposit, you might only recover 900,000. These factors all play into the cashflow generation of a miner. Listen to find out what else can impact their cost structure.Why would you want gold in your portfolio?Gold is a polarizing asset. People need to be educated on the investment class overall. Is it a commodity? Is it a currency? Is it just an element on the periodic table? In the book, “The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007” by Roy Jastram, he looks at the purchasing power of gold versus a fixed basket of goods from 1560–2007 in England. Throughout this time there were wars, currency devaluations, hyperinflationary environments, and more. After 1971, gold started trading freely. Throughout time, you could swap an ounce of gold for a certain amount of goods. Gold has always maintained its purchasing power.Gold is a paradox. Why is it useful as an anchor to diversify your portfolio? It’s not a productive asset. It doesn’t generate a yield unless you invest in the mine. But Max argues that gold shouldn’t have a yield. You own gold or you don’t. It is a business that will last forever. In 1,000 years, one ounce of gold will still be the same ounce of gold—the same weight and purity. It’s still a tangible asset. Gold can also be exchanged for any currency in the world. It is outside the financial system. It doesn’t fluctuate with the business cycle. If the economy is doing well, things like iron, oil, copper, etc. will fluctuate. But gold has very limited industrial use. Only 7–8% of gold is used in electronics and that number is steadily declining.So what’s the difference between owning physical gold and paper gold? Learn more about this polarizing investment in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. Max Belmont is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as poli

As humans, when should we be concerned about our impact on nature? I think there is an argument to be made for balance. I respect animals and their role on this earth. I believe they have souls and a purpose just like humans. Today’s guest, Aaron Bott, is going to help us navigate the economic and ecological concerns of humans interacting with nature. Aaron is a Biologist and Doctorate Student at Utah State University studying wolves to promote human and carnivore coexistence. He is employed as a Regional Manager for the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Learn more about Aaron Bott and his role [2:34]How Aaron became interested in wolves [6:30]The conflict between wolf populations and ranchers [9:18] Analyzing the benefit versus the cost of wolf populations [13:51] Employing empathy for both wolves and ranchers [17:42]The economic cost of eradicating wolves in the US [20:05] How does humanity fit in with the equation? [23:11] The economic barrier to coexistence with nature [25:47] Humanity is starting to recognize change needs to happen [29:51] Why we struggle to coexist with animals [32:33] Why we can remain optimistic about coexistence [35:38] How Aaron became interested in wolf behavior and wildlife managementAaron’s family moved to the West in the mid-1800s. As Mormon pioneers, they came straight from Europe and settled in Utah. They’ve been there for 175 years—over 6 generations. Aaron’s family has ranched, farmed, and built railroads. Aaron thought he’d farm but as he went to college, he realized he lived in an amazing ecosystem.Wolves were reintroduced into Yellowstone when he was five. Growing up, they had many conflicts with bears. Aaron realized he wanted to work outdoors with large carnivores. His goal was to reduce conflict wherever possible. Humans need space and animals need space. Now, Aaron is a researcher that studies wolf behavior and ecology while also working full-time in Wildlife management. The research he does helps him understand the real world. Management is where they create regulations to protect, preserve, and manage wildlife according to human needs and what’s best for the environment. The conflict between wolf populations and ranchersAs Americans expanded westward, they brought their worldview with them. Because they practiced agriculture, they removed native herbivores from the landscape. Elk, bison, deer, etc. were removed so they could grow crops without interference. When people settled the remaining west, there were far more carnivores. The herbivores were replaced with livestock. Predators killing livestock became a serious concern for ranchers and the government. From 1915–36, the US effectively eradicated many carnivores, including grizzly bears, mountain lions, and wolves. Wolves used to live everywhere but they were systematically eradicated in almost all of the lower 48 states. Society’s values began to change and we realized we were destroying the environment. In 1974, The Endangered Species Act was created and wolves were listed as an endangered species. So the United States began the work to preserve the habitat of wolves. Wolves were reintroduced into Yellowstone in the 1990s. The economic cost of eradicating wolves in the USComplexities come from coexisting with large carnivores. But olves are important to helping the ecosystem function in a healthy way. If you have a predator on the landscape it influences how prey behaves and uses their resources. It creates a cascade of effects. We’ve removed a lot of predators and replaced them with domestic livestock that behaves differently than native species. They overeat the landscape which degrades the environment. Now that we’re realizing this, ranchers are working to try and figure out how to re-wild the landscape. Because if your land fails, your cows can’t eat. If your cows can’t eat, your ranch fails, and you’re out of a job. Large carnivores balance the environment, which creates a healthier economy. Humanity is starting to recognize change needs to happen Problems rise when we try to manipulate and alter the environment to our own advantage without considering the land and wildlife. We need to be good stewards of the land. We have to coexist with our own environment. If we’re not careful, we can break the system. We are meant to coexist but it takes innovative thinking. When we develop natural lands as quickly as we are and urbanize wild lands, that’s where conflict comes to a head. Land development is the biggest economic hindrance. At what point do we say we need to protect more habitats? What are we doing that isn’t working? What is damaging our environment? What can we do differently so every man and animal can profit? Listen to the whole episode for an interesting discussion about how nature impacts the economy in ways we don’

Tim & Stephany Mauer discovered the British Virgin Islands in 2000 while on a charter. The experience was intoxicating and changed the course of their lives. They made it their goal to buy a boat and spend their years sailing the Caribbean islands. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, they share how they made their dream a reality.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The story behind how Tim and Stephany met [2:43]How their dream to sail the world came to fruition [7:05] The moment they realized they could make a living [18:54] What it’s like spending their days in the Caribbean [21:20] The moments that made them realize they made the right move [27:59] What they’ve learned about themselves by taking a leap of faith [33:05] They share why you shouldn’t wait to chase your dreams [36:49] Learn how Tim and Stephany met Tim landed in the medical technology field after college. A friend that worked for World Sports Promotions called him up and asked him to ski for a promotion in Jackson, WY. Long story short, he took a leave of absence to do that job. He skied, ran marketing promotions, and worked harder than ever. He constantly traveled and worked crazy hours. Tim thrived in this life and loved every minute of it. Eventually, he went to work for this company full-time, working his way up the ladder. The company continued expanding, hiring, and growing. One of his colleagues asked him to interview a potential hire—Stephany. Tim ended up recommending her for the job. He was in awe of her. She had already traveled the world and was living the life he loved. Eventually, they started a relationship. Tim booked a sailboat for a sunset cruise and proposed to Stephany over dinner. They had hundreds of ideas of how to get married. But they decided to go sailing with a crew and close friends. They constantly talked about that trip. How their dream to sail the world came to fruitionTim had parted ways with his company and launched his own business with a friend. Their business continued to grow. Tim and Stephany spent all of their free time sailing and their interest in sailing full-time never faded. They went to boat shows every year. They read boating magazines. They started telling people that their goal was to sail around the world. Then they created a 10-year plan to retire early and sail the world.After a series of events, Tim exited his company and they started traveling Central and South America. They wanted to experience different cultures. They always found themselves by the water. They finally decided to buy their boat ahead of schedule and start living their dream.They spent the first year learning the boat, exploring the islands, obtaining licenses, and learning to be jacks of all trades. They had to learn the roles of electrician, plumber, sailor, weatherman, navigator, bartender, host, and chef. They needed first responder, water rescue, and firefighting training.What it’s like spending their days in the CaribbeanTim notes that there’s nothing like waking up in the morning, grabbing a cup of coffee, and walking out to see the beautiful bay you’re anchored in. You’re surrounded by beautiful beaches, lush jungles, and sparkling water. They’re running luxury yachts with all of the creature comforts of home. They get to go to all of their favorite places. They can drop anchor and go explore.Your office moves wherever you want to go. It’s a slower, more relaxed life.There are some creature comforts that they miss. It takes time and planning to buy something and wait for it to get shipped to the island. They can’t just call an ambulance if there’s a medical emergency. There aren’t large grocery stores with aisles of food. But they’re always busy working, researching, fixing things, running errands, and enjoying life. Why you shouldn’t wait to chase your dreamsStephany points out that you can’t be afraid of the unknown. You can’t let the “what-ifs” dictate every life choice you make. Fear stifles you. And every challenge they’ve faced they’ve overcome together, which builds their confidence. Everyone can do far more than they think they can.They didn't want to wait until retirement to start their dream. You’re not guaranteed your future. Tim points out they’ve lost close friends and it’s devastating to think they planned for a future that never happened. Who are you living your life for? If you have a dream, formulate a plan to make it happen earlier. Take a sabbatical and live your dream for a period of time. Take action toward reaching your dreams. Replace “I wish” in your vocabulary with “I will” and “I am.” Don’t “I wish” until it’s too late. Tim & Stephany Mauer are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals asso

Today’s guest is Charles Hughes Smith, who’s been writing about socioeconomic and technology trends since 2005 on his blog, “Of Two Minds.” His blog hosts over 4,000 pieces of original content. His work is also on Patreon and ZeroHedge. Charles seeks to understand why our sociopolitical and economic systems are failing and lays out alternative ways to find a sustainable way of living. His work doesn’t fit into an ideological box and he believes that ideologies are obsolete and misleading.Charles has written 16 books, the most recent entitled “Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.” His blog, “Of two minds” means that he is open to changing his views when presented with new knowledge. Secondly, the blog itself is the result of two minds—his and his global readership. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:28] Why Charles started his blog, “Of two minds”[7:13] Will 2023 be just an average recession?[11:53] Three signs that the tides are turning [17:53] Inequality has been stretched too far[19:43] Is a huge wake-up call coming?[25:20] Each of our lives is a system and an enterprise[31:55] What next steps should we take?[38:17] The way that social change occursWill 2023 be just an average recession or will it be transformational?Charles wrote this article to cover two concepts: the mainstream idea that we will see a small recession and the small outlier camp that believes this will be something bigger. Charles points out that humanity sees great periods of socioeconomic and political change. In the 20th century, there was the Russian and Chinese revolution, World War II, The Civil Rights Movement, The Women’s Movement, and so much more.Charles believes that we need a transformation because the system we have isn’t sustainable. We’ve had a long trend of everything stabilizing back to a bull market. In the last 20 years, we’ve seen hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization which accelerated trends, destabilizing the system. The tides are turning. Three signs that the tides are turningWhat we are seeing and feeling isn’t aligning. We might see decay and renewal. We might have periods of flux that launch a renaissance. How can we deal with the unsustainability of the current system? Problem #1: Energy is not forever. Energy is a limited resource and there are constraints and costs associated with every form. We’ve indulged in “easy” energy with hydrocarbons. That industry is so large it’s beyond comprehension. It’s an incredible system that we take for granted. Green energy systems have their own constraints. It’s not an easy problem to replace hydrocarbons and people are ignoring that.With degrowth, a new model of growth and prosperity, we use less energy, materials, capital, labor, etc. When we use “more,” we contribute to what Charles calls the “landfill economy.” GDP is essentially measured by waste. Globalization has led to everything becoming disposable. Problem #2: The quality of life, goods, and services is enormous and consequential. The decline in the quality of goods and services is a decline in well-being and a waste of irreplaceable resources that people take for granted. Problem #3: The collapse of morality where anything goes as long as you make money. In a technocratic mindset, morality doesn’t count. The corruption that’s become pandemic has a consequence that people don’t measure. The average person realizes the system is unfair. Humans are wired to be attuned to fairness. When things are systematically unfair, people get upset. They may not know why. A lot of the contention we see is because the system is rigged. The system is supposed to limit greed and corruption. But if the system can’t enforce that, the system will collapse from moral decay.Inequality has been stretched too farSocial mobility has declined. In the past, anyone with a high school education, a willingness to work, and a willingness to sacrifice and save could buy a house. Anyone could do well for themselves, especially if they married into a two-income household. Now, what’s expected of you to reach the upper middle class is beyond what most people can manage. So they give up. That’s why we see quiet quitting. We see inequality of opportunity. We are paying more and the super-rich are paying less. Is a huge wake-up call coming?The dynamics that we’re discussing work from every scale—from the individual household to the global economy. Ralph Waldo Emerson talked about self-reliance in the sense of thinking for yourself and trusting your own intuition. You make your own way in life and avoid being conventional.Now, we depend on corporations and the government to provide everything for us. Our solution to everything is buying something. You need skills that you learn from experiences and make connections with other productive people. That’s self-reliance. In terms of finance, we look at risk and return. But Charles believes that’s

I received my first securities license 30 years ago. Over these years, I’ve been exposed to many investment options. I’ve never been drawn to taxable bonds as an investment option. In my opinion, they’ve never been a good hedge against inflation and just don’t make sense. You’re giving the government money without any idea what it will be used for and expecting them to pay you back.But there is a sector of the bond market that has made sense to me for certain clients—the municipal bond market. Municipal bonds are issued by the state or local governments to build new roads, hospitals, schools, etc. You know exactly what the money will be used for. You also usually know how the money will get paid back. The interest from these bonds is exempt from Federal income tax—and depending on the state—state income tax. Today’s guest, Jonathan Mondillo, is an expert in the municipal bond market. He’s the head of the North American Fixed Income Division at Abrdn Asset Management. He’s also responsible for the firm's municipal bond franchise and the Abrdn family of Municipal Bond Mutual Funds. We dive into a conversation about municipal bonds in this episode of Upthinking Finance! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:46] What drew Jonathan to the municipal bond sector[5:17] The difference between treasury and municipal markets [7:17] What does limited liquidity with bonds mean?[9:18] What Jonathan looks for with individual securities [14:22] Should insurance be a significant consideration? [17:08] A conversation about municipality bankruptcies[18:54] Navigating managed portfolios through the Great Recession[23:40] Two things advisors look at in the treasury markets[27:40] How politics influence municipal bonds [29:20] The impact of choosing municipal bonds [34:00] Are municipal bonds a separate asset class?The difference between treasury and municipal marketsThe municipal market is always compared to the treasury market. It introduces a bit more credit risk relative to treasuries. There tends to be some liquidity (which you are compensated for) and they are typically tax-exempt securities. The coupon you receive in treasury markets is taxable at the Federal tax rate. Investors choose municipal securities over treasury securities for several reasons, such as additional yield and credit exposure. What does limited liquidity mean?Over 50% of the marketplace is retail holders. They follow buy-and-hold strategies. When the market is going haywire and you need liquidity, it impacts your ability to sell the security. You have to wait for a retail holder to want to buy the security. But the treasury market is full of global buyers—institutional, retail, and government. One of the benefits of municipals is that they’re less volatile than the treasury market. We’ve seen that as international buyers have stepped away from the treasury market. What Jonathan looks for when choosing individual securitiesThere are distinct differences between municipal securities. A municipal bond is either a general obligation bond of a local municipality or a revenue-backed bond. If you’re looking at a general obligation bond, you start with both qualitative and quantitative factors. At a high level, you want to look at the governing structure, how consistent they are at passing budgets on time, budget performance, and socioeconomic factors of the municipality (wealth, unemployment rates, and where the revenue mix comes from). There’s a host of qualitative factors.When you shift to quantitative metrics, it has to do with budgets:What budgetary surplus have they run historically relative to the total budget? What does their balance sheet look like?What does the general fund balance look like relative to the overall budget?When you look at balance sheet metrics, they’ve become highly important compared to income analysis. Two things advisors look at in the treasury markets Advisors look at inflows and outflows. When they see treasury rates selling off and moving up, they tend to see outflows in municipal asset classes. Secondly, you can compare the yield on a municipal security relative to treasuries. Historically, anything inside of 20 years trades around 75% of a treasury yield. Municipal bonds may soften over the next couple of months as they catch up to the treasury market. They spend more time looking at the yield of a municipal security relative to a corporate security, especially going into 2023. Jonathan notes that we’ll see earnings compression, upticks in defaults, and an economic slowdown. When you look at ratios of municipal debt versus corporate debt, there is a historical mean that they look for around 70%. Things are landing in that sweet spot right now. Listen to the whole episode to learn more about the ins and outs of municipal bonds!Jonathan Mondillo is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advi

Steve Knight has been in the aviation industry for 50 years. He holds an airline transport pilot certificate, a commercial pilot certificate, a flight engineer certificate, and a certified flight instructor certificate. He’s flown more than 22,000 hours on seven types of aircraft, all over the world. He’s been Chief Pilot, Director of Operations, Fleet Captain, and Standards Captain. He spent 39 years at United Airlines, flying the Boeing 777 and 747, before retiring. In this special episode of Upthinking Finance™, Steve Knight shares a view from the cockpit. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[2:21] The importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs)[10:07] Steve’s experience(s) navigating problems outside the cockpit[11:55] Why developing friendships with coworkers can be difficult [13:05] Is a 40-year tenure with an airline common? [14:28] When the government no longer subsidized air travel [17:27] The impact of technology on aircraft [21:10] How Steve reconciles technology with experience[24:10] Two crash landings that changed the industry[28:08] The most challenging airports for pilots[33:23] Steve’s favorite views from the cockpit[36:22] How Steve’s travel has changed his view of the worldThe importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs)Aircraft live and die by standard operating procedures (SOPs). On any given day, you might be flying a long-haul international trip with three people you’ve never flown with before. You have rigid SOPs so everyone knows what to expect. SOPs cover everything from starting the engine, to taxiing, to take-off, to landing, and everything in between. Before takeoff, the pilot usually addresses the passengers to share what to expect (how long the flight will be, the weather, and whether or not they expect any rough air). Typically, they have four pilots on the long haul flight from LA to Sydney that Steve ended his career flying. There are usually 15 flight attendants and 250–300 passengers. It’s a small city going to 35,000 feet, which is why procedures are of paramount importance.The airline industry is always tweaking proceduresPilots who fly the 777 and 747 have to be certified every nine months to make sure they’re ready to fly. And every time you change the airplane you’re flying, you “go back to school” for about a month. The SOPs are the same, modified for the airplane you’re flying. When Steve was hired at United in 1979, an airplane crashed in Oregon. The problem was a lack of crew communication. The industry realized they needed to do better, so they developed Cockpit Leadership Resource (CLR) which later became Crew Resource Management (CRM). It’s become an integral part of crew communication. The impact of technology on aircraft Steve started flying when they still used analog instruments. He started with dials and gauges. Now, the cockpit is covered in computer screens. Pilots went from primarily flying an airplane to primarily managing an airplane. It’s a large safety improvement but a huge learning curve. Steve emphasized that pilots need to be able to fly both ways. Since he started flying, they’ve implemented Traffic Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAVs) that will alert pilots if there’s a mid-air conflict. The computer not only tells them to descend or climb but the two airplanes can communicate with each other so one plane climbs while the other descends. When Steve first started as a flight engineer, he manually tracked when the plane took off and landed. Now they have ACARS—Aircraft Communications, Addressing and Reporting System. So when you look at the app on your phone to see when your flight will land, that information is sent automatically. How else has improving technology impacted the airline industry? Listen to find out! Steve’s favorite views from the cockpitSteve has flown all over the world for the last three decades. On a route from Europe to the West Coast of the US, he’d often see the Northern Lights across Canada, which was incredibly beautiful. When the volcano in Iceland erupted in 2010, they could see the volcano erupting in the distance. Steve was flying a charter of camera crews to the Beijing Olympics in 2008. He’d flown this many times, which usually went over the north pole and you come in over Mongolia into Beijing. The smog is typically so bad that you don’t see the airport until you’re half a mile away. But Beijing was so concerned about the optics of hosting the Olympics that they shut down factories, didn’t let people drive their cars, and implemented other things to reduce the smog for the Olympics. So when Steve flew into Beijing on that trip, he could see the whole city from 50 miles away—a site to behold.Don’t miss this episode for a fascinating glimpse into the world of aviation from the lens of a pilot!Steve Knight is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securit

Today’s guest, Rich Solomon, is an attorney, author, and public speaker that runs a local radio station in New York. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we build on last week’s episode with Sunil Dovedy and cover the practical aspects of starting a business. What are the common roadblocks? Why do partnerships seemingly always fail? How do you keep viable businesses alive? Rich shares how his “reality check” conversations with aspiring entrepreneurs help them build stronger businesses. Don’t miss this episode!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[1:48] Common roadblocks to starting a business[6:43] The reason(s) partnerships rarely work out[9:00] Facing challenges topples many businesses[14:28] Rich’s “Reality check” conversations [22:11] Adapt to keep viable businesses alive[29:05] The dynamics of family-owned businesses[35:25] People desire the personalization of business[38:14] Learn all about Rich’s radio showCommon roadblocks to starting a businessAre you a solopreneur? Or will you be forming a partnership or working with a group of people? Someone’s answer to this question will change the entire dynamic of how a business works. As soon as multiple people are involved, there is inherent conflict. There is always an imbalance of work, money, and contributions. Everyone believes what they bring to the table is more important than someone else’s contribution. You have to make sure that everyone has realistic expectations about the starting point and what happens moving forward. People have different perceptions of when they work, how much they work, etc. So the business dynamic is the #1 thing that needs to be nailed down.Rich will also challenge the feasibility of their idea. What is the competition? How much market saturation is there? How many similar names are there? He’ll ask for their marketing plan, marketing budget, branding, differentiation, etc. Are they too niche or under-specialized? You have to flesh out the expectations.Facing challenges topples many businessesLook at the businesses that didn’t survive Covid that were sound beforehand. Covid stressed their business model in ways they never thought of. Restaurants had to switch to takeout. Or they realized they were too labor intensive. Their business foundation was upended. Regulation changes can also shake up businesses. Rich had a friend that was a private eye. But when his industry was forced to work under a private detective and get licensed, it killed it completely. When Covid hit, per diem lawyers were no longer needed and the industry was wiped out overnight. These factors are stressors that bring out the worst in people. They move to firing people, buying cheaper products, cutting hours, etc. It impacts the quality, your branding, and your traffic. This causes a death spiral and friction between owners. If you were stranded on an island and asked to survive, would you be able to work together under stressful conditions? You have to overcome jealousy, anger, laziness, cutting corners, and other things people do not want to face. It’s hard to be in business. It requires sacrifice. Many people aren’t prepared for that. Rich’s “Reality check” conversationsRich will cross-examine people’s ideas to make sure they’ve done their research. He asks question after question to dive into their business plan and the steps they’ll take when things go awry. If he thinks someone’s business won’t work, he will tell them. Because of this, he won’t charge them for their first consultation to avoid any bitterness. People tend to be dazed if he hits them with this news. But they’ll think things over, shift their idea(s), or rework their business plan. Rich truly believes that if he simply rubber-stamps someone’s idea, he’s doing them a disservice. You have to run a pressure test in simulations, as opposed to real live businesses with people depending on the success. You will get a rough education and have to learn from it. People desire the genuine personalization of businessPeople still hunger for human connection. You can start business relationships by building trust, awareness, and confidence. People go to the same stores and buy from the same restaurants because they’ve built a level of trust, comfort, familiarity, etc. Rich advises moving away from the impersonal nature of texting and email as much as you possibly can. Hearing the inflection of someone’s voice can make a huge difference. Rich Solomon is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.Connect With Rich Sol

Starting a business is both challenging and exciting. I cannot deny the hand of God in my work at Capital Investment Advisors. I’m surrounded by some of the best people I could collaborate with daily.But a lot can go wrong when you run your own business. A lot can go wrong when you take an idea and create something that generates revenue and makes a difference in people’s lives. You can get to a point where everything is exactly how you want it—but you have to work to keep it there.Today’s guest, Sunil Dovedy, is with a company that specializes in change management—the Adizes Institute. They strive to help companies create a healthy culture of collaborative leadership. He’s worked in fast-paced and innovative environments to drive organizations to superior levels of achievement. He shares how to navigate the challenges many businesses face in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:04] Learn more about Adizes Institute[6:32] Applying life cycles to business [15:38] Saving an organization past its prime[19:39] The problems companies face with growth[28:01] The dynamics of family businesses[39:15] The heartfulness connection[46:55] How to connect with Sunil DovedyLearn more about the Adizes InstituteSunil was in software for over 20 years when he happened to meet Dr. Adizes. Sunil notes that he’s one of those people that you feel privileged to meet. Dr. Adizes takes the typical management processes and simplifies them so that even those without a degree can manage effectively. It’s applying common sense principles to management.Sunil’s company applied Dr. Adize’s principles and he was blown away. So in 1999, he joined him on a crusade. He’s been working to transform how management is taught and practiced ever since. He shares that it’s been a wonderful 20-year journey. Applying life cycles to business managementEveryone experiences life cycles. Things are born, they grow, they age, and they die. Dr. Adizes discovered that the human lifecycle can be applied to numerous other systems—including businesses. The corporate lifecycle goes through 10 stages, from an idea to infancy to growth to operating in its prime. But many businesses reach a stage where they start to disintegrate and die when they face challenges and can’t adapt. The book, “The Myth of Capitalism,” explores the idea that companies don’t want to compete with each other. They’d rather become oligopolies and co-exist. They spend billions of dollars on research and development, but it’s incomparable to their revenue. They lack innovation. The fall begins when they lose vision. Sunil and the Adizes Institute seek to help businesses change this dynamic. Saving an organization past its primeKnowing where your company is in its lifecycle is important. The way you parent an infant, a toddler, and an adolescent is quite different. You have to shift your parenting style in each phase. It’s the same in a business. One of the biggest challenges is getting to and staying in prime. It’s not about the age or size of the organization, but its behavior. Once you know where you are, you can move to the next stage. You can continue through the normal ebb and flow of your business’s lifecycle until it’s dead—or you can start a new lifecycle. Aristocracy organizations can start again, but they often have to change their beliefs. The heartfulness connectionA business usually starts as an idea or dream that evolves into an ATM that has to pay its employees. But the real reason to start a business should be to elevate the human consciousness. We are seeing this shift in movements like conscious capitalism. It’s not about making more money, but creating conditions to help humanity evolve. Dr. Adizes helps organizations free their human potential. It’s about answering the question, “How do you integrate spiritual development and make it an integral part of your daily life?”Sunil Dovedy is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.Resources & People MentionedBreakthrough to PrimeThe Myth of CapitalismSmall is BeautifulConnect With Sunil DovedyAdizes Institute Worldwideadizesinfo(at)adizes.comConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

One of the challenges financial planners face is figuring out how to determine an individual's risk tolerance and explain it to them. The challenge is helping clients understand what a downside looks like and feels like. It’s hard to prepare people for the ups and downs of the market. In 2011, software was developed to more effectively communicate the declines in the market. That software is better known as Riskalyze. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Aaron Klein—the Co-Founder and CEO of Riskalyze—shares more about the company that invented the risk number to help quantify, explain, and define risk. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:30] The origins of Riskalyze[10:04] Aaron’s experience developing Riskalyze[14:09] How Riskalyze helps financial advisors[19:28] The Riskalyze stress test [28:32] Can you misuse the tool?[31:04] How I came across Riskalyze[33:35] Using Riskalyze for portfolio research[38:28] Riskalyze’s commitment to treating people well[44:25] Aaron’s favorite thing about Riskalyze[47:34] The important work Aaron is doing in Ethiopia The origin story of RiskalyzeWhen Aaron was 12, he worked for his dad after school. It taught him a love for business. He learned that your customers are everything. If you take care of your clients, they’ll take good care of you. Secondly, all you have is your reputation. If you invest in your reputation for serving your clients, it will turn out well. Aaron also realized he wanted to be in a business that had better margins.Aaron was running global product for a division of an options brokerage firm, building technology tools for traders. He’d always known he wanted to start his own company. He was talking to a friend who was a financial advisor about the fact that financial advisors didn’t have the tools to understand a client and match them with the right risk in their portfolio. They used words like “conservative,” “moderate,” and “aggressive” with no idea if the advisor and client were on the same page.They had a mutual friend who had invented and patented a system for creating a mathematical function that represented risk tolerance (built on Kahneman's Prospect Theory). It was a three-hour-long process that resulted in a good outcome. They partnered together, raised some capital, and launched in 2011. Two years later, the product was brought out of beta testing and advisors could implement it. What does Riskalyze do?Riskalyze is designed so that a financial advisor can tell their story. It’s a technology that helps determine how much risk a customer is comfortable with in their portfolio. It also helps measure the risks you need to take towards reaching your goals. It helps you see the risk you currently have in your portfolio. Once you understand those factors, you can answer how much risk you should have.Riskalyze helps financial advisors simplify risk toleranceAaron points out that they didn’t invent the concept of getting clients to understand risk. There are two things financial advisors have been told to never address—risk and short-term. The challenge is that investors react to risk in the short term. Everyone understands on some level that when you invest in something, you run the risk of the value dropping. A large part of their success is that Aaron’s co-founder is a financial advisor. He brought a unique perspective. But shaping the product was Aaron’s full-time job. He always approached it from a lens of, “How would I explain this to my dad? How would I explain this to my wife?” They want Riskalyze to be the tool that financial advisors use to help their clients see and understand what they’ve already been telling them for years. The Riskalyze stress testThere is always a 5% risk in any portfolio that cannot be quantified. That risk includes things like the housing market crash, the Covid-19 pandemic, the inflation crash, etc. Those things happen and cannot be predicted. The job of a financial advisor is to control the 95% of the risk that is quantifiable. If you look at that range, you can point out that normal behavior for the Risk 45 portfolio might be down 8% to up 12% over 6 months. There’s a 5% chance that it will be worse. But that doesn’t mean that you bail when you hit that 5% probability chance. The stress test function in Riskalyze allows you to see your portfolio when it hits a 5% probability event. Looking at this helps build credibility with your clients. They’ll trust you and follow your advice. The role of Riskalyze when working with a financial advisorInvestors can be successful with the help of an amazing financial advisor. That advisor should be equipped with the best technology to be able to explain their approach. It’s never about changing how the advisor advises—but about helping them tell their story. You get to bring your expertise to the table. Riskalyze focuses on helping financial advisors engage with clients, get clients on tra

Today’s guest built a successful career and preserved her personal integrity working in a high-pressure industry where most people succumb to the demands of political correctness and upward mobility at all costs. Today’s guest is my wife, Darci Fersch.Darci has a B.S. (Bachelor of Science) in Administration of Justice and a Master’s Degree in Consciousness Studies. Darci has worked for a well-respected law firm based in New York, building her career in the San Francisco and Los Angeles branches of the firm. She was challenged to take risks no one was willing to take and enable attorneys to provide the best legal work for their clients.When our son was 10, she left the industry to focus on him. She was at the peak of her career and well-respected in the industry. Many were shocked that she walked away. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Darci shares why living a whole life made the transition easy. She also shares why doing what was right—not what was expected—defined her career. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:44] What Darci’s unique career trajectory was built on[9:52] How Darci knew the environment she’d be successful in[13:50] Why Darci believes standing out isn’t something to pursue[17:12] How Darci strives to live a life of integrity[23:31] Why your focus can’t always be the next job title[31:10] How to find success in the corporate world[33:41] Pursue what your heart wants and the rest will comeWhy Darci chose to pursue a degree in Administration of JusticeDarci was always drawn to politics, the judicial system, and the law. While Darci originally wanted to be an attorney, she decided to focus on the business side of the legal field. She realized she would have more options to pursue other life interests on the administrative side. Darci has always strived to live a life where she can shift gears whenever she wants to.Darci worked to develop expertise so she could move into federal law because it is consistent across the US, which meant that she could be marketable across the country. She continued to acquire expertise that she could build on.How Darci knew the environment she’d be successful in Darci was recruited by a law firm to run some larger departments. It was a great opportunity and she learned a lot. However, something happened that made her realize it wasn’t the right fit. One night, she came home to multiple messages from a trial attorney, desperately looking for 30 + paralegals to help prepare for a trial—and they needed them the next day. Darci made some calls and by 2 am, she had everything set for the attorneys for the next day. She left them a message saying the 30 people they needed would be waiting in the conference room for them at 9 am. They were dumbfounded that she accomplished that for them. And she was shocked that they didn’t think she was capable of making it happen. She wanted to work somewhere where she was expected to give the best that she could give. Darci strives to live a whole life. Darci didn’t want to work in an environment where she stood out and got patted on the back. She wanted to be in an environment where she could be who she is. You can’t accomplish the best for a company when you’re too busy trying to stand out. When you do the best you can do and treat people fairly, you stand out the way you should. The greatest privilege in life is to be able to live who you are. There’s nothing wrong with achievements. But you don’t want to get to a point where you’re a person divided. Situations that challenged Darci to be a person of integrityDarci likes to be challenged. The New York-based firm recruited Darci back, but to their LA firm. The office was a mess. She was warned by friends and family to avoid that office because it could potentially ruin her career. But she knew the administrator and the firm, so she knew that she’d be allowed to do what she needed to fix the areas she’d be responsible for.One week after she got there, she assessed the problems and knew how to fix them. But she was told she needed to cut staff. She refused to do it. She knew with time she could fix the problems without letting people go. She requested three months and threatened to leave if they didn’t allow her to do things the way she knew was right. She met their numbers within one month and had to hire employees, not cut them. From there on out, she was never told what to do. Instead, they asked for her thoughts, opinions, and how she would solve problems. She stood her ground. Darci will never put herself in a position where she can’t leave an undesirable situation. Why shouldn’t your focus always be the next job title? How do you find success in the corporate world? Darci shares some wisdom from her experience in the corporate world in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. Don’t miss it!Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Membe

The political and socio-economical world is changing rapidly. What’s happening isn’t just a part of the normal cycle. So how do we adapt in these changing times? In this episode of UpThinking Finance™, Rodrigo Gordillo shares why low inflation isn’t normal, talks about the Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending, and his company’s concept of return stacking (and how it works). Rodrigo Gordillo is the Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Portfolio Manager of ReSolve Asset Management. They launched ReSolve in 2015 using a quantitatively focused investment methodology that they began developing when they worked as portfolio managers at private wealth management firms. Learn more about his unique investing strategies in this episode!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[2:40] Learn more about Rodrigo Gordillo [7:33] How Rodrigo got into quantitative analysis[11:13] How Rodrigo connected with his co-founders[14:23] Why 40 years of low inflation isn’t normal[18:55] The Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending[23:56] Rodrigo’s concept of return stacking[46:00] Some of Rodrigo’s favorite resourcesHow Rodrigo’s formative years impacted his investment strategiesRodrigo was born and raised in Lima, Peru. He was lucky to be the son of a math professor and naval officer. His father made it far in the information technology space so he was sent to Monterrey, CA for further training. He used to joke that his job was to answer a question poorly that would otherwise be answered worse. When he left the Navy, he started a software development company. Because of this, Rodrigo was always surrounded by computers and information.In 1989, the President of Peru decided to default on IMF loans. Inflation soared 7,200% in six months. Whatever anyone had in savings went to zero—including his grandfather’s savings. The big winners were the debtors and the big losers were the savers. It was an impactful moment in Rodrigo’s life. It’s also why he makes sure any investments he works on account for periods of high inflation. How Rodrigo got into quantitative analysisRodrigo notes that quantitative analysis can be made simple. It’s a set of rules he and his team have coded to make sure they’re disciplined and executing religiously on their investment philosophy. He emphasizes that the philosophy is what’s important. In the late 80s, Harry Brown recommended that you have 25% of your money in cash, 25% in gold, 25% in equities for growth, and 25% in treasuries for bear markets. It’s an early version of how people think about portfolio balance today. You have to decide what balance means for each segment.Ultimately, Rodrigo seeks to create balance with diversity (global equities, bonds, and commodities in the portfolio) within regimes. You update the risk rather than dollar weights. It’s far better than a 60/40 portfolio.Markets are complex, and Rodrigo notes that you can’t conflate your lived experience with expertise. The experience has been 40 years of a low inflation market, persistent positive growth, and abundant liquidity. It is not common and it’s not the norm. You have to have the expertise to look at history and understand it. That’s how he and his team landed on return stacking.Rodrigo’s concept of return stackingWhen you have a diversified strategy, advisors are asking you to give space in the portfolio to zig when others zag. It creates a better risk-adjusted return. For every unit of risk you take, you’re given more units of return because they added diversity. It lowers volatility and smooths out the return streams over long periods. But from an absolute basis, your returns will be lower. In the last couple of years, a few innovative funds use derivatives to get additional exposure for every dollar you give them. PIMCO has a fund that invests in an active bond portfolio and uses the collateral to buy an S&P Futures contract that is 100%. So when you buy their fund for $100, you’re getting $100 worth of bonds and $100 worth of equities. Their volatility is low. Now, you’re getting a full return of bonds and stacking the full return of the equities. Rodrigo’s fund follows the same concept. It’s their best beta portfolio (equally split between bonds, equities, and commodities), and stacked on top is managed futures. Historically speaking, he’s seen a 5% real return long-term for each basket. Want to learn more? Rodrigo takes a deep dive into his return stacking strategy in this episode of UpThinking Finance™. Do not miss it!Rodrigo Gordillo is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resi

Kandee Anderson has worked for Marriott since December of 1988—34 years. How many people can say that? Her accomplishments are broad and deep. She started as a Sales Manager at a Residence Inn in Southern California. She worked her way up to a GM position at that property before moving into marketing and sales as a Regional Sales Director. Eventually, Kandee became the General Manager for several properties in Southern California. She’s the GM of the Irvine Marriott, located in Orange County. She’s led convention marketing strategies, won awards for customer service, received profitability recognition, and has facilitated leadership training within the company. Kandee has done it all. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™ Kandee shares how she advanced in the industry, talks about the challenges she faced along the way, and shares her thoughts on the future of the hotel industry. Don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:18] What drew Kandee to the hotel industry?[5:24] Finding balance in a demanding job[7:43] How Kandee advanced in the industry[12:53] Defining moments in Marriott’s history[17:41] The evolution of Marriott hotels[21:00] The challenges of the expansion process[24:15] How Covid has impacted the hotel industry [29:16] Kandee’s thoughts on the future of the industry [31:59] What Kandee is most proud of in her career[34:23] Kandee’s favorite hotel in the worldThe evolution of Marriott hotelsMarriott was actually a food and beverage company for 30 years. It wasn’t until 1957 that J.W. Marriot purchased his first full-service “motor hotel.” It was very successful for them and they continued to diversify. In 1987, they purchased the brand Residence Inn. It was their first acquisition. Courtyard, Fairfield Inn, and Springhill suites were all built from within to cater to every possible customer. Their portfolio also includes full-service and luxury hotels, such as the Ritz-Carlton, the Renaissance brand, and many other international brands. The first international hotel was in Acapulco Mexico in 1975. They’ve grown this amazing machine with different brands.What challenges has the company faced during its extensive growth? Listen to learn more!How navigating Covid changed everything J.W. Marriott founded his hotels with the sole purpose of putting people first. His motto was “If you take care of your associates, they will take care of the customers.” Because of this belief, Marriott was one of the few companies that kept benefits for all of their employees during the Covid pandemic, even if they were furloughed. Now that the world is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, there’s a lot more leisure travel. But corporate travel is in flux. Companies are looking at different ways to do meetings. So from an occupancy standpoint, the leisure side is strong. All of the business realm has room to grow. How Kandee advanced in the industryKandee was the first female General Manager at her hotel. When she first started at Marriott, women couldn’t wear pants. They were treated differently. But she’s never been passed up for a promotion or been stopped because she was a woman. She’s broken through many barriers because of her grit and determination. She also had great mentors that encouraged her to keep pushing upward. She had always been fearless and confident, even as a young child. She is always the first person to raise her hand in meetings and is always part of the conversation. She wasn’t afraid to raise her voice and bring her knowledge and experience to the table. Kandee is proud to do something she loves while making a good living. She accomplished her financial goals in a way where she was happy and able to spend time with her family. She chased balance and a financially rewarding life. She did what she loved and didn’t pursue things that pulled her away from her family. What does the future of the hotel industry look like? How is Kandee pivoting at her hotel to navigate changes in the economy? Listen for a fascinating look inside the hotel industry and how it operates. Kandee Anderson and Marriott are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedMarriott: https://www.marriott.com/Connect With Kandee AndersonConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kandee-anderson-6352444/Connect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by -&nb

Oil is a global commodity. When President Nixon took the United States off the Gold Standard, it created difficulty with global commodities. At that time, the major oil producers around the world agreed that oil would be priced in dollars globally (which led to the term “Petro-dollar”). When you link something to a currency, it can be inflationary or deflationary. We prefer the dollar to be strong, which makes the stuff we buy more affordable. Right now, the dollar is strong, but we aren’t seeing deflation. We are in an environment that isn’t following the “rules” of economic textbooks. So in this episode of Upthinking Finance, Chris Pusak—a Client Portfolio Manager at Cushing Asset Management—helps dissect the energy sector. We talk about both the local and global impact of oil production and distribution, why fracking won’t end, and weigh in on the various political and economic factors. Don’t miss this episode!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:39] Learn more about Cushing Asset Management[7:31] Why the energy sector plays a huge role in the economy[11:11] Dissecting the influence and impact of OPEC[13:16] The two common types of drilling for oil[17:46] How the green movement will impact the future of energy[25:36] Why the price of natural gas is immensely volatile [27:32] The political impact on the rising price of gas[32:13] Where is the energy industry headed? The two common types of drilling for oilAt some point, Chris points out that the world will start to run out of oil. We may completely deplete oil from the planet. The Saudis do conventional drilling and draw from a pool from an underground oil reserve (it’s like sucking the oil out with a straw). The US mainly engages in hydraulic fracturing. Oil drilling was a risky business before this technique was developed. With hydraulic fracturing, you put the drill bit down two miles (10,000 feet) and then turn it sideways and drill out two miles. This allows you to “sweep” the area so you never miss. With hydraulic fracturing, you get the most production from a fractured well in the first 2–3 years, and then production declines quickly. Because of the way these wells work, you consistently have to drill new wells to keep production levels steady. It’s expensive and requires a lot of capital upfront. Oil companies are motivated to drill to maximize profits and that’s the simple reality. How the green movement will impact the future of energyThere is a transition taking place. However, the problem is that the green movement is trying to flip the switch too quickly. Many countries can’t meet the demand for green energy. Chris points out that only 3% of power today is generated from non-carbon fossil fuel sources. Because of this, banning fracking is impractical. Globally, oil is mainly a transportation fuel. Chris believes that there will be a day when oil is unimportant to the world. But Chris isn’t sure that will happen during our lifetimes. The case for fracking: natural gasNatural gas has greater longevity. Why? Because when you drill for natural gas, you get a dry gas (methane), which is converted to electricity. The US has reduced its carbon footprint by reducing power generation from coal to methane. Methane now contributes to 40% of power generation in the US. Wet gasses that are drilled include butane, propane, and methane. Butane is common in lighters. Propane is used as a source for heating and cooking. Methane gas is one of the main ingredients in plastics. Chris emphasizes that “If you ban fracking…you would send the price of all energy into the hypersphere, creating massive inflation and a global depression—as if we were living in 1875.” Recently, because of the pandemic and energy policies in Europe, the price of natural gas has skyrocketed from $2 to $60–$70 in Europe. It’s $9 for 1 million BTUs in the US. The political and economic factors at play in the energy industryThe US has been releasing oil from its reserves. It has been very inflationary, which hurts the people who can afford it the least. So instead of taking multiple trips to the grocery store, they may only be taking one. Or they’re opting to stay home more. Recession fears have played into it. At the end of the day, Chris points out that the price of oil is only about half of what we pay at the pump. What does the journey usually look like for distribution? The oil that comes out of the ground is priced by the global market. This oil is transported in a truck. The trucking company takes a profit to deliver the oil to the pipeline. Then the pipeline takes their cut. The refiner takes the oil from the pipeline and refines it to heating oil, jet fuel, or gasoline and they take their cut. The final product is then sent back into another pipeline. Only then do local depots truck the oil to gas stations. And once refined gas gets to the gas station, both federal and st

Over 20% of Exxon Mobil stock is owned by Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. That means they have 20% of the voting rights. Starbucks is largely held by Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. Why is this important? These companies are some of the largest advocates for the World Economic Forum (WEF) which forces compliance with the objectives and philosophy of Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG).It’s clearly not in our imagination that these companies control the stock of several publicly traded companies and can influence how they run their business. What do we make of this? How do we stand a chance?Today’s guest believes that the WEF is losing the battle. Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like Zerohedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine and Newsmax Media. He’s also the owner and publisher of the Gold, Goats, and Guns Newsletter and podcast.Tom shares why he believes the WEF—who he not so affectionately refers to as the “Davos” crowd—will not win the war in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[6:58] Who is the “enemy?” Who are we fighting against? [9:30] Why the Davos crowd is losing the battle[18:20] Why the world has underestimated Russia[24:54] The US Commercial Banking System holds the power[28:00] Why the Brits have always tried to control the US government[33:11] What should people pay attention to? Where are things headed?[39:29] Why we can’t be afraid to seek the truth and speak our mindsWhy the Davos crowd is losing the battleThe Davos crowd made it easy to identify who the globalists were in 2016. Everyone was on board with the globalist plan to extract wealth from the world. The banking system went along with it. But that system broke in 2008 when Lehman Brothers went down. The dollar reserve standard broke. Davos wants a way to repudiate all the debt and all the broken promises of all the social safety nets that have been put in place for 75 years. Europe is broke. Their banks and governments are broke. The United States is broke. That was fine as long as there was a perpetuation of the banking system. The goal of the WEF is to do away with central banks. Then, they’ll institute a world government through the UN and let the International Monetary Fund (IMF) become the world bank. So when central banks go bust, only the IMF will have the capital to bail them out. But Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, etc. aren’t going to go along with this. This would cut them out. Tom realized there was a problem. He realized he was wrong. He started to embrace the argument that the dollar would strengthen and that Europe is actually the problem. The US Commercial Banking System holds the powerWho is the most powerful political lobby in the world? The US commercial banking interest. It’s centered around the big banks. They decide who gets elected. They control the purse strings for the military-industrial complex. They decide who gets the money. They won’t go gently into the good night.They may be corrupt. They may be corporatists. But they still believe the best way to generate wealth is through capitalism—not communism. At some point, everyone has to question where the world is headed. If Davos ends up in charge, they’ll make life unlivable for everyone. What should people pay attention to? Where are things headed?Tom says to Look for capital flight out of Europe. What would that look like in the US? A rising Dow and rising US Bond yields. Look at the difference between US and German bond spreads. When the market says it prefers US debt over German debt—that’s when all of Europe will collapse. Why? Because the German bond is the safe haven trade for Europe. If the Dow Jones is holding up and trading sideways as the US moves into a recession, it means international capital is flowing into the Dow. What if there needs to be a recession to save the banking system? Tom shares more of his educated opinion on where the world is moving in this episode. Don’t miss it! Tom Luongo is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.Resources & People MentionedThe Not So Great ResetThe Screwtape LettersZeroHedgeConnect With Tom LuongoCheck out Tom’s WebsiteSign up for Tom’s NewsletterCheck out Tom’s PodcastFollow Tom on TwitterConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Pastor Rodney Nichols learned at a young age that he was musically talented and was asked to direct the Pastor’s choir. But he knew God had a greater plan for him. In June of 2000, he accepted his calling to be a preacher. He became the Pastor of True Faith Holiness Church for four years. After he met his wife in 2008 and graduated from Bible College, they planted the Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship, where they serve today. Their mission statement is to “extend, equip, and deploy.” They extend the hand of God to the lost, equip those who are seeking with the teachings of God’s infallible word, and deploy those who they’ve equipped to build the kingdom of God on earth. Pastor Rodney’s motto is “If God is in control, then we won’t be out of control.” In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we talk about Pastor Rodney’s church, his ministry, “Midnight Soldiers,” and following God’s calling on his life.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:46] How you can feel God’s call on your life[7:22] Forming Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship[16:14] The mission and vision of Midnight Soldiers[18:33] The power of small churches to make a difference[24:29] What’s next for Garden of Praise Christian FellowshipLearn about Garden of Praise Christian FellowshipPastor Rodney pastored a church in Los Angeles for six years when God shared that it was time to go back to his home church. He sat on the “sidelines” for five years. After he married his wife, God laid on his heart that it was time to start his own church. God strategically put things in place so that Pastor Rodney’s wife knew it was his hand guiding their steps. When they were doing the 501c3 paperwork, they met someone who completed the paperwork for free. God continued to strategically put people in place through the journey.Running a small church has always been a financial challenge but God continues to provide. Like many small churches, they rely on their church members to continue their mission. As a leader, he has to trust God and believe that the congregation is trusting God as well. Pastor Rodney emphasizes that “You have to do your part for God to do his part. Your only guarantee is your faith.”The mission and vision behind Midnight SoldiersGod woke Pastor Rodney up at midnight one night and gave him the name of the ministry—Midnight Soldiers—and told him what he needed to do. The goal of Midnight Soldier is to bring blessings to the homeless population in Los Angeles at midnight, a time when many people feel hopeless. God connected him with Pastor David at Oceangate who connected the church with the airport that supplied them with sandwiches, parfaits, salads, and more. One Friday night a month, Midnight Soldier hands out meals, hygiene kits, clothing, blankets, etc. to the homeless population on Skid Row.I had the opportunity to walk alongside Pastor Rodney numerous times. We’d show up singing gospel songs and march the streets handing out resources. We took the time to meet people and hear their stories. We prayed with them and offered emotional support. We might not have been able to change anyone’s circumstances but in that moment, people knew that someone cared about them and that there was hope. Small churches are powerful but face many challengesI believe that small churches have the ability to make a difference. Finances should never get in the way of that. Sadly, people don’t realize that finances hold many churches back from being able to do more in ministry. Many churches fold because they can’t meet their budgets. If money was no object, there would be highly successful ministries doing bigger things for the community.What’s next for Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship?Rodney’s goal is to grow the ministry over the next two years and plant another Garden of Praise location. His desire is to impact another neighborhood to feel the authentic love of who God is through his people. That can only happen if people are willing to stand up. Learn more about Pastor Rodney’s mission and vision in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. Pastor Rodney Nichols is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.Connect With Pastor Rodney NicholsThe Garden of Praise Christian FellowshipConnect with Pastor Rodney Nichols on LinkedInMidnight Soldier Evangelism Outreach MinistryConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

How do you make financial decisions as a couple? In church environments, there tends to be the idea that one partner gets to decide how to spend the money and takes control of finances. While there may be a primary point person, it is a partnership. Couples should make decisions together. My wife has an exceptional eye for property and is skilled at negotiating. She defers to me with retirement planning. That’s the spirit of finances in marriage: you find each other’s strengths. Today’s guests are a young couple, Nick and Kelsey Burns. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we have a conversation about navigating finances as a young couple. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:42] Navigating job changes and finances in their early marriage[11:48] Laying the groundwork for the future of their finances[15:16] How Nick and Kelsey chose to switch gears[18:44] How culture influenced their decision-making process[23:28] What changed the trajectory of their lives?[27:29] The “What does our rich life look like?” discussion[31:11] The common thread/unified visionNavigating job changes and finances in their early marriageNeither Nick nor Kelsey had any financial literacy training going into their marriage. They had to figure things out as they went. Kelsey is the more financially independent of the two. She’s held a job since she was 14 and always paid her own bills. Kelsey was a waitress, so she always had cash. Nick also had a steady income with a company vehicle and full benefits. The hardest transition was when he quit that job to pursue his passion. They weren’t making money and had to figure out how to survive. When Kelsey found out he had quit, she was shocked but not totally surprised because she knew he wasn’t feeling fulfilled. She was happy he was going after his passion, but they had to figure out their finances quickly. Kelsey was raised to take the safe and secure route. So Kelsey picked up double shifts so they could pay for their basic necessities. Kelsey went into survival mode and worked 9–5 jobs that she didn’t find fulfilling. Laying the groundwork for the future of their financesNick and Kelsey have always agreed that they would avoid debt in their marriage. They barely used their credit card and if they did it was only on purchases they knew they could pay off. They adjusted their lifestyle and lowered their cost of living whenever it was necessary. They had a mutual understanding that if things got bad, Nick would have to look for more stable work. Things were tight 99% of the time but they figured it out. They were not going to get in debt to chase their dreams.What happened that caused them to switch gears? How did the culture they grew up in influence their decision-making? Listen to hear the full story!What changed the trajectory of their lives?Kelsey had created a relationship with developers and worked directly with many of them throughout her work. She was given the opportunity to become the realtor on a massive development. Kelsey could’ve made a lot of money. She was hungry and excited about the prospect.But she started evaluating her life. She’s always been a workaholic. She saw herself getting addicted to the lifestyle. She feared she’d never see Nick, her family, and her friends. They already rarely saw her in her current position. She questioned if they’d start a family. She turned down the opportunity (and stayed on good terms with the developers). Kelsey may still do interior design work with them in the future. Ultimately, she chose everything else that she’d been neglecting. She graduates from a coaching program next week as a Holistic Health and Spirituality practitioner. She gets to incorporate fitness, nutrition, and spirituality into her job, a balance of the things that bring her joy.Nick made the initial jump into doing what he was passionate about. Kelsey always wanted what was best for him and looked out for his best interests. Now it’s Kelsey’s turn to do something she’s passionate about and he’s focusing on supporting her dreams. It’s their endless support for each other that’s carried them through.The “What does our rich life look like?” discussionNick points out that most people think about financial planning as “Get rid of your $8 coffee and start saving that money.” But what if you want that $8 coffee? You have to decide what a rich life looks like to you. What are the things that you want in your day-to-day and work life? What are your priorities as individuals and as a couple? Nick and Kelsey have always had those conversations. They don’t think of abundance as a monetary value. Instead, it’s about gaining an abundance of time, freedom, joy, and fulfillment. After all, you can make a ton of money and be miserable. Nick and Kelsey Burns are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Fina

When the United States moved off of the gold standard in 1971, it allowed the government to print as much money as it wanted. When gold was the standard, they could only issue as much money as they had gold or assets to back it. It affixed a value. We operate on a fiat money system now, which means the market forces dictate the value of the currency. Those values can be easily manipulated. A day of reckoning will be coming. Today’s guest is an expert on what's been called the “Great Reset.” Professor Michael Rectenwald is the author of 11 books, including titles such as “Thought Criminal,” “Google Archipelago,” and more. He was a professor at New York University for 11 years. He’s a champion of free speech against all forms of authoritarianism, totalitarianism, and political correctness. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we discuss what the great reset is and how it’s impacting the globe.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:26] What does the term “great reset” mean?[8:53] Are companies abusing their responsibilities to their shareholders? [11:55] Why “Environmental, Social, and Governance” (ESG) initiatives are problematic[16:52] How did we get to a point where we are $30 trillion in debt?[18:54] Why the stakeholder capitalism movement is an actual threat[23:11] Other organizations and institutions that are involved [26:16] When are we going to see a tipping point? Where will things end? [30:45] The impact the great reset will have on the market and society[33:36] What you can do to oppose the stakeholder capitalism movementWhat does the term “great reset” mean?The great reset is a package of plans that refers to the World Economic Forum’s agenda to reset capitalism from shareholder capitalism to stakeholder capitalism. Stakeholder capitalism is a system that not only considers shareholders in the operations of corporations but also stakeholders—customers, workers, communities, and society at large. Klaus Schwab—the founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF)—believes that we should no longer operate on a free market and that we must counter neoliberalism and replace it with stakeholder capitalism. Some argue that the “great” reset is a means by which the elite recoup their debt by starving certain populations from consumption patterns and standards of living. It also stems from the climate industrial complex and the green movement that has been in play since 1971. Climate catastrophists have been making their way into corporations, banks, and asset managers. They have a firm grip on economic levers. Is stakeholder capitalism a way to subvert the will of the people?Corporations, rather than voters, are impacting the decisions of the government. Michael points out that this is a pre-governmental arrangement. Instead of passing legislation to enforce climate policies, corporations, banks, and asset managers are leading the way. They’re not precluding legislation—they’re getting in front of it. They’re pushing the agenda so legislation will follow and they’ll be compliant. It’s an undemocratic process for employees, customers, and society. Why? Because costs will continue to increase for the people. It represents a tax on everyone. What is “Environmental, Social, and Governance” (ESG) criteria?The ESG index is the mechanism by which stakeholder capitalism is being implemented. The environmental score is determined by how well a company abides by sustainability measures. Do they have a net zero plan?Are they looking at reducing their carbon footprint?Are they environmentally sound?Social refers to it as a social justice index that focuses on how well your company is represented by all minorities. They score companies on diversity, equity, and inclusion metrics. It’s affirmative action being implemented through the stock exchange. Governance refers to human rights and how well they abide by state dictates. How well do they enforce or parrot state narratives? You might think this actually sounds good, right? So what’s the problem? It represents a monopoly scheme whereby compliant companies are fed capital whereas the non-compliant are starved of capital. It’s a way of establishing what Michael calls the “Woke cartel” because it represents how well they abide by woke dictates. It’s authoritarian and totalitarian because it aggregates property rights and demands that you can’t do what you want with your company—you must conform. If you don’t, you won’t get loans or capital investment. It’s a scheme to starve the “un-woke” out of capital investments and effectively monopolize the market to drive competitors out of the system. Why the stakeholder capitalism movement is an actual threatLook at the WEF’s website and their list of corporate partners who are pledged to “the mission.” It’s a who’s who of corporate domination. The production and distribution of goods will be controlled by a “woke” cartel that wil

“True wealth is the ability to spend your time the way you want to. That is the ultimate resource.” – Chris WeathermanIt’s important to prepare for retirement so that outside factors won’t impact whether or not you have the retirement you’ve dreamt of. Financial independence and self-reliance are important. But according to Chris Weatherman, it’s also important to prepare your life for the unexpected. Chris—known as the “Angery American”—is the author of a series called “The Survivalists,” consisting of 11 books (two of which landed on the bestseller list of USA Today). Chris has been a “prepper” since the 1990s, teaching primitive skills and modern survival tactics. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we dispel some myths about “preppers,” talk about why it’s important, and share some tips and strategies to help you get started. Don’t miss this unique episode!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:38] Chris dispels the myths surrounding “preppers” [6:51] Why the average person avoids thinking about these issues [10:22] If you’ve never thought about prepping, where do you start?[16:25] Why you always need to plan for the unexpected[19:40] Can swimming pools be a good investment?[22:18] Where does community fit into preparation?[24:17] The inspiration behind Chris’s book series[30:42] Chris’s outlook on the future in the United States[35:07] Stay aware of what’s happening in the worldChris dispels the myths surrounding “preppers” Covid has clearly demonstrated that just-in-time inventory systems don’t function. Society is fragile. Preppers are people that don’t implicitly trust the system and take responsibility for their own welfare. They don’t believe in “normalcy bias,” i.e. “Nothing bad happened yesterday so nothing bad will happen tomorrow.” Chris is prepping to live. He prepares food, medical, energy, security, communications, etc. He’s not preparing for the “end of the world,” the common misconception attributed to preppers. Instead, he’s preparing for the end of his world, which could mean an illness, job loss, a hurricane that knocks out power, etc. You have car insurance, homeowners insurance, and medical insurance—why not ensure the continuity of your life? That’s what prepping is. Whether it’s a car accident, fire, a natural disaster, or a crime being committed against you, Chris emphasizes that “You are your own first responder.” Chris got into prepping because he didn’t want to be “that guy” standing in line waiting for help. If he can take care of himself, resources can go to someone who does need them. Hurricanes are common in Florida, and life after a hurricane can be rough. The power can be out for weeks at a time and things are hard to find. So Chris plans ahead with fuel storage, food, generators, and solar power that’s 100% off-grid. If you’ve never thought about prepping, where do you start?When you get groceries, just buy a few extra cans of things your family already eats and likes (think rice, beans, pasta, and anything canned). Once you have a 30-day-supply, continue buying those things by rotating out and using the older things. Secondly, avoid things that don’t have a long shelf life. If you live somewhere that deals with water shortages, what do you do? You still have to maintain hygiene, have enough to drink, and have enough to cook. If you don’t have water, you’ll have to leave where you are and go to water or you’ll die. If you drink soda and buy two-liter bottles, rinse them out, clean them, and refill them with water. The hot water heater in your house can be drained and used for bathing and whatever else you might need in an emergency. Stock up on at least one month’s worth of food, medicine, water, and basic hygiene supplies. Once you’ve achieved the month and you feel comfortable, great. If not, shoot for stocking up for 90 days.Where does community fit into preparation? Listen to hear Chris’s thoughts.The inspiration behind Chris’s book seriesChris has been in the survival field for over 30 years. He started learning primitive skills and worked his way to modern prepping. He wrote his book, “Going Home” on a forum to entertain himself. As he began writing his story, it took on a life of its own. It had over 2 million views online before he even completed writing it. People told him to publish it. Then he wrote the second book on his forum. People sent money to force him to publish it—so he did. He didn’t take it seriously until he made ¼ of his annual salary within the first month of the book being sold on Amazon.Penguin Books called and made him an offer—which he turned down. Two weeks later, they called again with an offer he couldn’t refuse. Now the series has 11 books and he’s working on #12. Listen to the whole episode to learn more about Chris’s books, resources to help you get started prepping, and why it all matters. Chris Weather

Chris Pelczynski is a seasoned creative director, designer, and illustrator who spent most of his career in leadership at ESPN. Since starting his career as a graphic designer in the 1990s, he’s worked for companies of all sizes. His most notable roles were working with ESPN where he led the creative process for some of the world’s largest broadcast brands, such as Monday Night Football, Sports Center, and Baseball Tonight. He’s won two sports Emmy’s and 9 Promax awards. But after 17 years at ESPN, Chris decided to walk away from corporate life to launch Krispy Kreative. He now serves a wide variety of clients, including those in the broadcast world, film, music, finance, food service, and sports. He’s also the creative force behind our branding at Capital Investment Advisors and did the graphic design work for this podcast. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Chris shares the challenges and joys of moving from the corporate world to entrepreneurship.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:17] Chris’s experience at ESPN[12:18] Why Chris ultimately left ESPN[16:04] Chris’s transition to Krispy Kreative[25:13] Learning how to run a business[36:36] When Chris knew things were going to workHow Chris ended up at ESPNChris pursued a degree in graphic design because he wanted to focus his art skills in an area where he could get a job. Many of his projects during his senior year of college were sports-oriented. When he graduated, a friend told him that ESPN was hiring. So Chris threw his application into the mix. Within a couple of months of graduating, he started as a graphic designer at ESPN. Chris really enjoyed working at ESPN and in the beginning, it almost didn’t feel like work.Chris worked his way into upper management and became the Art Director, eventually landing the role of Creative Director. He believes his ability to communicate and stay organized led to his promotions—over his artistic skills. Why did Chris ultimately leave instead of continuing to climb the corporate ladder?Why Chris left ESPN to launch Krispy KreativeThe longer Chris was at ESPN, the better the perks were. It wasn’t just raises, benefits, etc. but ESPN also threw lavish parties. He’d get to attend conferences. It seemed like there were unlimited perks. But it started losing its luster when they moved from a sports focus into the social/political realm. Many people who worked there for the sports felt like it wasn’t their network anymore. The shift in politics and corporate culture ultimately led Chris to leave. While it was a hard decision, he emphasizes that you have to believe in yourself enough to know that you can do something else. Chris’s transition to Krispy KreativeWhen Chris left ESPN, he wasn’t ready to fully commit to running his own business. So he took a job in Las Vegas at a news station. The experience was an eye-opener. It became abundantly clear that he wasn’t going to fit in and it was time for him to take a leap of faith. So he launched Krispy Kreative.Chris spends 90% of his week working on things that are important to him, that he likes doing. In the corporate world, 60% of his job was sitting through meetings. Now, he gets to serve clients. Chris isn’t defined by the work he’s doing, but rather, he gets to define the work he’s doing. That’s the biggest difference he’s found shifting from the corporate world to being an entrepreneur. Chris’s focus is getting to help others, small businesses that need help. In the corporate world, it’s all about landing the big fish. Now, Chris gets to create full-blown sports packages for tournaments. He’s creating movie titles for a documentary. He gets to do branding for major television shows. It hit him that most people in his field don’t get to work on things that they love. Listen to the whole episode to learn more about Chris’s journey to entrepreneurship and the challenges he’s faced—and overcome—running his own business. Chris Pelczynski and Krispy Kreative are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedESPNConnect With Chris PelczynskiKrispy KreativeConnect on LinkedInConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Russell Napier is the author of The Solid Ground Newsletter. He began writing the global macro-strategy report in 1995 for CLSA, a capital markets and investment group based in Hong Kong. He forecast what was to become the Asian Economic Crisis and was voted Asia’s #1 equity strategist in all of the leading polls at the time. His forecasts were compiled in a book he published last summer, “The Asian Financial Crisis of 1995–1998: Birth of the Age of Death.” The world is living through a breakdown in the global monetary system. He has advised clients to invest for the outcome versus just living in another business cycle expansion. That’s why I subscribe to his newsletter and value his views. He isn’t afraid to stand for what he believes in. Learn more about his book in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:50] Why Russell decided to dissect his analysis in his book[8:22] What it’s like to be the guy with the unpopular opinion[11:11] How to understand what was happening in Asia[14:22] Why it’s important to understand the underlying conflict[17:14] The importance of studying financial history[20:08] Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated [22:49] What Russell didn’t see coming in his forecasting [25:48] What is the idea of “The birth of debt?”[31:00] Monetary systems follow a circular trend[33:33] How you would benefit from reading Russell’s book[36:56] The currency board system in Argentina[41:33] What’s happening next in Russell’s worldHow to understand what was happening in AsiaLet’s assume that a government authority is running the Hong Kong peg, linked at a set rate to the US Dollar. If there are lots of buy orders for the currency, it will push the exchange rate up. But let’s say it’s not allowed to go up, so the government entity must intervene in the stock market. When it intervenes, the government accumulates United States Treasuries on the asset side of the balance sheet. But people forget to focus on the liability side of the balance sheet. The government has to buy treasuries with newly created Hong Kong money in the form of commercial bank reserves. It’s exactly what happens with quantitative easing—assets go up and the central bank's liabilities go up. It is supposed to lead to an economic boom. That’s what was happening in Asia. The assets accumulated by the Asian Central bank were treasuries from someone else’s bond market. Some of the banking systems were growing their assets by 30% annually, an unbelievable boom fueled by the exchange rate policy. There was no incentive for anyone to intervene. Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated It all started with Thailand and then bled to Russia. In the 90s, Korea was one of the biggest exporting countries in the world. When their currency went under, the world was flooded with cheap products from Korea. It played a key role in bankrupting Russia. Brazil was next. It was toward the tail end that it brought down Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The Fed slashed interest rates and bailed out LTCM. It sent a message that if anything happened in the markets that would be bad for the American economy, Alan Greenspan would intervene. The reaction of Greenspan transformed the next 20 years. The entire US monetary policy was altered because one hedge fund was in trouble. People were shocked. So they borrowed like crazy. What Russell didn’t see coming in his forecasting Russell thought that the Asian currencies would devalue. What he didn’t focus on was how much damage would be done. When Thailand devalued, he would’ve guessed the US dollar would devalue by 50%. It went down 90%. Over 1,000 people died in riots across Indonesia. He never would have forecast that it could have resulted in the devaluation and near bankruptcy of Korea. The fundamental mistake was to see what was happening and say that a deflationary wave was coming to the whole world. The great wave of deflation turned out to be incredibly positive for equity valuations. Russell emphasizes that you can never underestimate the power of a falling Fed funds rate to rejuvenate growth. It worked.Monetary systems follow a circular trendThe day that Paul Volcker was made Chairman of the Federal Reserve, it was different. It was a great time to buy bonds. Russell would argue—going back through the years chronologically—things change every 30 years. Monetary systems last about 30 years and then they fa

Gina DiMaggio has always loved color. From the moment she could pick up a crayon, she drew rainbows. She was also drawn to black and white images because they were full of contrast. She learned to associate color with the contrast in the images and used them to illuminate the light. What’s born is truly striking vibrant images—and a thriving business born out of a passion for color. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we discuss what it’s like to be an artist and run a business. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[0:58] How Gina transitioned from nursing to art[5:14] Why she named her business the “Color of Ashes”[8:21] Gina’s unique use of color in her artwork[11:58] How Gina chooses to value her work[19:02] How Color of Ashes has gained traction[22:16] The challenges Gina has faced[24:56] Gina shares the meaning behind “Black Sheep” [28:02] How “The Waiting” reflects Gina’s transformation[30:31] Gina’s custom painting of a beautiful black lab “Ingrim” [32:30] The beautiful piece that we commissioned from Gina[34:50] Learn about Gina’s band “Gina and the Wildfire”Why Gina named her business the “Color of Ashes”Gina’s brother, Nino, passed away in a car accident at the young age of 18. She was just 14 at the time. She notes that when you experience tragedy that young, it changes your outlook on life. She saw life as a privilege—not a guarantee. She wanted to make sure she lived her life in a way that felt worth it, in honor of her brother. So when Gina started her business, she made sure it was something she was passionate about. Art felt like a representation of her spirit. When she named it “Color of Ashes'' she saw an image of ash falling. After everything is covered in gray ash and you sweep it away, there’s still beautiful color and life underneath. The ash falling represents life and how terrible things happen. Everyone experiences pain, loss, and hurt. But through that, we discover something beautiful on the horizon. How Gina chooses to value her workGina emphasizes that artwork is subjective. Artists price their pieces based on their value as an artist and what the piece turns out to be. What an artist creates is personal. It’s not mass-produced—it’s one unique piece. When Gina prices a piece, she thinks about how much of her time was consumed and how much she loves it. Gina set a goal to paint 24 original pieces this year. That being said, to be successful, she can only produce so much. So artwork must be valued at a level where she’s able to let it go. She loves each painting and wants them to be in a home where they’re appreciated. Everyone decorates their homes in a way that brings them peace. Your home should be a place where you feel like it represents what you love. Someone who buys a piece has to love it—they don’t buy it because it’s a “good deal.” They buy it because they place as much value on it as Gina does.The challenges Gina has facedGina went through a divorce two years ago. At the time, she was a stay-at-home mom who was painting as a hobby. During the process, her husband said “Have fun in the real world,” fully expecting that she’d be forced to return to her previous job as a nurse. The truth was that she wasn’t making enough to live off of. But his words lit a fire underneath her. So she started producing more and more art. She had to make it on her own. She took a leap of faith and continued pursuing her passion and it worked in her favor. Gina’s story is one of perseverance and passion. Listen to the whole episode to learn more about her colorful art and the role that mindset plays in pursuing your passion. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Connect With Gina DiMaggioPurchase Gina’s art at Color of AshesFollow Color of Ashes on InstagramGina and the WildfireConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

When people make small mistakes and deviations with their retirement portfolio, we can work through it. But there’s a BIG mistake that people make that not only destroys their financial future but also makes a generational impact. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™ I’ll share some stories about mistakes I’ve observed over the years. What’s the common thread? The role of emotion. Listen now to learn how to avoid these big mistakes.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why you don’t want your investments over-concentrated [2:47]Avoid excessive concentrations of stock from an employer [9:07] The role of fear in challenging markets [14:25] Why you can’t sell when you’re facing your deepest fears [19:07]Prepare by diversifying and building an actively managed investment plan [24:12] Why you don’t want your investments over-concentratedOver-concentration typically occurs because clients either work for companies and get compensated with stock options OR inherit stock from someone who passed away. I met an individual in 2006 who had inherited some stock from a parent. We were just emerging from the tech bubble. This individual’s portfolio included well over 12,000 shares of Bank of America stock, valued at around $650,000. It also paid a dividend of over $30,000 a year. So there were financial reasons to want to keep the stock but the sentimental value was strong.Anything that holds sentimental value is a tough hurdle for a financial advisor to overcome—and likely why I didn’t succeed in this situation. I recommended divesting a majority of the stock and only keeping a couple of hundred shares. Why? Because it was 60% of his net worth—a large chunk. The plan was to reinvest and diversify his portfolio to reduce his concentration risk and bump up his income. But this individual held fast to his emotional connection and chose not to diversify. Two years later, the value of the stock dropped 90%. The $650,000 value tanked to $60,000. Even worse, the dividend per share dropped from $2.52 a share to $0.04. His $30,000 income became $500 a year. Every positive that existed vanished. 13 years later, the value of this stock isn’t back to where it was. It’s hard to insert logic into emotional situations. If you find yourself in this situation, you have to detach yourself from the sentiment.Avoid excessive concentrations of stock from an employerI was glad to see the dot-com era come and go. I had clients who expressed dissatisfaction with 25% returns when they thought they could have achieved 30–40%. One guy laughed at me when I told him he needed to diversify. People thought this era would never end. At the time, NASDAQ had “pink sheets” for companies that weren’t big enough to be traded publicly (often referred to as penny stocks). I would get calls from people wanting to invest in companies that weren’t even on the pink sheets. Everyone was looking to invest in the next Microsoft. I had a meeting with a client who worked for a company called Conexant, a spinoff of Rockwell International. Their stock price had gone up to over $130 in March of 2000. This gal had $1 million worth of stock options. I advised her to sell the majority of it and diversify her portfolio and retire successfully. But she was attached to the company. What happened? As you can guess, in August 2020 the price fell below $30 and two private equity firms eventually bought the company at $2.40 per share. They filed for bankruptcy in 2013. Loyalty to any company—even one you work for—is a problem. Why? Corporate America isn’t loyal to anyone. The role of fear in challenging marketsI learned that you need logic to offset fear. The logical anchor in a financial situation is a plan. You need a plan that is constantly and regularly reviewed. If an anchor isn’t in place, once the wind shifts, the ship is blown off course—and may even sink. The Great Recession wasn’t just a recession. Financial Institutions were going under. The Dow Jones had peaked at over 14,000 in 2007. But over the next year-and-a-half, it dropped down to under 6,600. As financial institutions began to go bankrupt, people panicked. The media headlines only served to exasperate the fear.These are just a few of the headlines:“Lehman Collapse Sends Shockwaves Around the World” – The New York Times?“Mounting Fears Shake World Markets as Banking Giants Rush to Raise Capital” – Wall Street Journal“Panic Grips Credit Markets” – Financial TimesNone of this inspires anyone to stay the course, right? It inspires people to react. In this episode, I share stories of both success and failure. I share how you can prepare for the worst and avoid the big mistakes that many people make. Learn more by giving it a listen! Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or

In 1995, I started my investment firm, Capital Investment Advisers. I left a job where I had a consistent client base, a good salary, employee benefits, and the hope that I would move up the corporate ladder. But I felt I could do a better job. Lindsay Metcalf holds the same belief.Lindsay is the sole owner of HomeConnect, a company created to eliminate the concerns experienced by homeowners who have to leave their homes vacant for extended periods of time. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, I chat with Lindsay about the leap of faith she took when she decided to buy HomeConnect, the challenges she’s faced as a business owner, and why she’s passionate about her job. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why Lindsay took a leap of faith and purchased HomeConnect [3:03] Make sure you’re in the position to take on risk [12:08]The challenges of running your own business [15:24] How Lindsay has gained trust in a virtual world [19:55]Why Lindsay is a passionate patriot [23:32] The personal growth Lindsay has experienced [27:40] Lindsay’s long-term plan for HomeConnect [31:33] How Lindsay took a leap of faithA luxury realtor in Bozeman, MT invented HomeConnect after numerous clients asked her to manage their properties while they were away. She hired Lindsay away from the bank she worked at, and Lindsay became a subcontractor of HomeConnect. HomeConnect is a service tailored to the needs of each client, offering things like weekly or monthly home check visits. They can also coordinate deliveries, schedule maintenance services, arrange housekeeping and even arrange airport transportation for homeowners. Lindsay left a bank job with great benefits and reliable pay. She jokes that you don’t realize the importance of creature comforts like having an office and a desk until they're gone. After sharing her concerns, the owner provided her with an office space and a desk and did everything to accommodate Lindsay’s discomfort. But Lindsay never went there. Now, she admits that she could never return to a structured 9–5 in an office. She overcame the fears she faced and started building a thriving business. Keep listening to learn more about it. Make sure you’re in the position to take on riskLindsay notes that her husband has always had a big-picture view of their finances. He set them up so they don’t have credit card debt or a mortgage. They don’t buy things unless they have the money on-hand. When the opportunity to purchase HomeConnect came along, they were in a good financial position to take on that debt. Lindsay emphasizes that you have to live within your means, even when it’s not sexy. It’s what allowed them to buy HomeConnect. My wife and I have always worked to live on one income (despite having two). We wanted to make sure we had flexibility so when we decided to have kids, one of us was always able to be with our child. The challenges of running your own businessLindsay works with clients from around the world. Some have strong ties in Bozeman, others just landed there because it’s an area they love. Some clients come to Bozeman for a white Christmas or a two-week retreat in the Summer. She manages everything from a penthouse condo to a six-million-dollar home on 30 acres. The program is completely tailored to each client. Most of her clients live a lifestyle that she doesn’t. She doesn’t own a vacation home or have the disposable income that they do. Lindsay notes that she has to remove her own feelings and beliefs and make it about what matters to her clients. She helps them adjust to the different lifestyle (i.e. the lack of a local UberEats presence) whenever she can. Lindsay is candid, genuine, and truly cares about her clients. How does she build trust with her clients in a virtual world? What personal growth has Lindsay experienced in her role as a business owner? Listen to hear more about the importance of taking an educated leap of faith. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedThe Last DanceConnect With Lindsay MetcalfHomeConnectHomeConnect on InstagramHomeConnect on FacebookConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking Finance™Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

In my role as a CFP, I’ve been introduced to some awesome people and organizations across the country and the world. Today’s guest, Pastor Chris Hoke, is one of those people. Chris is the co-founder of Underground Ministries, which serves to mobilize faith communities and businesses in the Pacific Northwest by connecting them to men and women being released from prison. This movement takes faith organizations and connects them with an individual that’s being released from prison. It helps them build a network outside of the prison system, which can help them overcome the significant barriers to reentry into society. It brings churches back to the primary purpose: to serve as places of healing and personal resurrection. In this episode of Upthinking Finance, Chris shares how he became a gang pastor, the challenges Underground Ministries faces, and how to approach charitable giving through a new lens. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...How Chris got involved working in the prison system [4:35]God is in the resurrection business—not the disposal business [8:44] Balancing the administrative side of a non-profit with the mission [13:38]How to approach charitable giving with a different lens [16:53] The challenges of Underground Ministries’ One Parish || One Prisoner [23:13] Overcoming the fear of working with the incarcerated [27:52] Jesus had a mission and never backed down from it—why can’t we? [37:24]Invest in what you want to see heal the world [41:04] Where to learn more about Underground Ministries [44:07] How Chris got involved working in the prison systemChris grew up in a home where he was in church three times a week. The only story that made sense to him was doing the “Jesus stuff.” Chris wound up in the PNW working with theologians among undocumented migrant workers picking cucumbers and strawberries in fields. He found himself engaging in theological study in a small jail. There were young men Chris’s age who were funny, open about their anger, and asked brilliant questions. They just happened to be in prison. He’d talk until late into the night, interacting with men he’d never been exposed to in church. These men had lived through incredible abuse and unspeakable traumas. But when they were released from prison, they’d end up in the streets, lost in homelessness, addiction, and gang violence. Or, they’d end up back in prison. That’s where Chris’s work began. He became their pastor. He knew that needed to find a way to help these men (and women) transition back into society. God is in the resurrection business—not the disposal businessAmerica has a problem with mass incarceration, 8x as much as the second or third place incarceration per capita in the developed world. America embraces a culture of disposability. We don’t fix broken things, we throw them away. Chris points out that we treat humans like garbage. It's easier to throw away a broken person into the landfill system. Prisons are a human dumpster.He shares that there are amazing human beings in prisons. “[Prison] is an incredible waste of humanity yet it's an incredible discovery of new friends and the magic of healing and the discovery that God is in the healing business.” How to approach charitable giving with a different lensChris often finds himself surprised when he speaks with people in churches or at conferences and they share their “giving philosophy” with him. It’s usually something like “We don’t like to create dependence so we only give in cycles once every few years.” Chris finds this appalling. It’s not how relationships work. It’s certainly not how good investing works. If everyone gave based on that philosophy, every non-profit would have to double their overhead to constantly try and develop new relationships and donors versus building on existing relationships. Giving every few years only serves the giver. It does not build a real partnership. It is not real giving. Chris wishes that more people would find places they want to invest and be in it for the long haul—like a mutual fund. Giving has to be viewed as a relationship and a commitment. Take the time to find organizations that reflect who you are and the difference that you want to make in the world. The challenges of Underground Ministries’ One Parish || One PrisonerPeople always ask Chris what they can do other than reading a book or sending a check. So Chris pondered their questions—What if people from churches wrote back and forth with prisoners? What if they became part of their release plan and helped them plan reentry into the world? That’s when Underground Ministries placed all of their hope into their “One Parish One Prisoner” program. So Chris created a pairing and training system. They just paired their 33rd Church and released individuals in Washington. They are rolling away the stones from the tombs of these prisoners. Pe

Today I want to share a risk that many people aren’t aware of as they approach retirement: sequence of returns risk. When you retire, there’s no way to predict what the market is going to look like. You’ve planned to withdraw from your retirement portfolio to fund your retirement. But what happens when you have to make withdrawals in a down market? How will it impact your portfolio? How will it impact your retirement? In this episode of UpThinking Finance, I’ll talk about the different variables at play, what sequence of returns risk is, and how we can preserve your portfolio from varying returns.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The variables that impact preparation for retirement [1:00]Dividends and capital spend-down plans [1:52] What is sequence of returns risk? [4:13] A series of 20-year returns from 1989–2008 [5:04]How to preserve against varying returns [8:41]Properly positioning yourself in retirement [16:39] Dividends and capital spend-down plansLet’s say someone’s goal is to withdraw $10,000 a month to cover their expenses in retirement. How do we help them work toward that goal? First, we add up fixed income sources such as social security, pensions, or rental income. Let’s say these total $5,000 a month. What’s next? There are two ways to approach supplementing that additional income. The first is through dividends. You can build a portfolio around investments that generate a monthly or quarterly distribution check, such as a municipal bond portfolio. If we need another $5,000 a month, the portfolio needs to generate $60,000 a year in dividend income.The second strategy is a capital spend-down plan. We systematically sell shares or principal from the portfolio and it eventually depletes to zero. This is the route that most people take. Very few clients can rely on fixed income and dividends alone. If you draw 4% of your portfolio, you should be able to average a 4% gain and offset your spending. But this comes with risk. Demonstrating sequence of returns riskWhat kind of returns is the market providing as we’re liquidating a portfolio? We might have a general idea of what the market will do, but we can’t predict it, right? The variance compression principle states that the longer you go into an investment cycle the less variable the returns will be year to year. The reality is that it’s unpredictable. If we don’t plan for sequence of returns risk, it will derail your retirement. In this episode, I’m looking at a series of 20-year returns from 1989 to 2008. We’ve also inverted the order of the returns to start in 2008. Why’d we invert it? The market was up 31.69% in 1989. But when you invert the returns, we see that 2008 was down 37%. This will show us how a retirement portfolio fares starting with a bad year or a good year. Let’s say we start with $1 million, are invested in the S&P 500, and draw out $50,000 a year (including the 3% annual inflation adjustment). After 1989, the portfolio’s ending balance was $1,266,900. But when we look at the returns starting in 2008, the portfolio was down to $580,000. That account lost half its value between the market and the drawdown in the first year. Making that up would require the portfolio to have a 100% gain. That’s not only near impossible but it’s incredibly risky to attempt achieving. Eventually, after 18 years, the inverted portfolio ran out of money. The portfolio that started up 31.69% in 1989 ended its twenty-year run at $3,073,031.00. How to preserve against varying returnsHow do we ensure that we’re not selling assets into a down market? By using income segmentation also referred to as the bucket strategy. In this example, the buckets/segments start in three-year increments (I prefer to use five-year increments). How do we position money so that our retiree has $5,000 of supplemental monthly income? We want to place those funds in assets that will at least retain their value and will hopefully grow. This first five-year phase is the transition to retirement. If you’re in your 30s-40s, you’re investing for growth. A 10-year falloff in the market doesn’t matter. But it matters when you retire. So we invest this first bucket in a low-risk environment. Bucket two can include more risk, such as fixed-index annuities or balance funds. Then, once we get beyond the first 10 years, we focus on growth investments like blue-chip stocks that pay a dividend and things like small caps. Each segment becomes more aggressive. Why? Conservative investing can’t keep up with inflation. Retired people still need their portfolios to grow. It’s all about avoiding selling assets into a down market.That’s the science—but it’s also an art. When clients are building a portfolio you’re setting goals and targets but retirement still feels like it’s in the distant future. Once you retire, the annual meetings become more critical. Managing these segments is a lot of work when done proper

You may never have heard of Trend Following as an investment strategy. That’s because it’s not a commonly followed approach for any of the Finance Experts you’ll find out there. It’s an investing approach that has been in existence for a long time but has only been used by hedge funds, until now. My guest on this episode is Alex Krainer, Founder of Krainer Analytics and I-System Trend Following. He’s served in the financial industry as a hedge fund manager, market analyst, and futures trader since 1996. He’s also the author of many books. He publishes the daily “Trend Compass Report,” which I have found extremely valuable. This episode will introduce you to the concept of Trend Following, explain the basics of how it works, and walk you through Alex’s experience as what might be considered a “contrary” voice in the investing world.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Trend following: a helpful tool for developing investment strategies [1:40]Alex’s experience and development of trend following [10:09]Why trend following has not been embraced much by experts [17:54]Alex’s 4 pillars: Truth, Strategy, Discipline, Patience [24:04]The spiritual element Alex brings to investment strategy [31:39]Alex’s goal to help ordinary people become financially strong [36:12]What is trend following and how does it help with investment strategy?In 1997, Alex worked for an oil trading company and was asked to develop a systematic way to manage market risk. As he assessed the situation, it wasn’t so much a matter of risk as it was a matter of uncertainty and he couldn’t predict the future. For years the company had used the typical Fundamentals analysis approach, which had led them to big losses. As he and his team looked at the problem, they knew that if they could figure out the trends the market operated on and could extract value from those observations, they would be on the right track. They discovered that many hedge funds were already pursuing a trend following approach and were experiencing great success. He and his team built a prototype of their trend following model in 1999 and discovered many maintenance problems that kept them from optimizing the system. He refined the model in 2000 with the help of a professional software engineer and has been using it without a glitch since that time.Learning how to invest from predators in the wildAlex learned much of his investment philosophies from watching a documentary about predators in the wild. As he watched lions going about the act of hunting, he realized that they instinctively follow a predetermined “hunting process.” He reasoned that this process was part of their design and was to ensure that the species’ instincts and decision-making processes were profitable. And he could see that they were profitable or else lions would not continue to exist. His observation was that predators pass most of their time watching potential prey. They take action to go after their prey only when they see the right opportunity. There is also a risk-management process that prevents the animals from unnecessarily wasting their limited energy. The second a predator determines it is unlikely to make a kill, it will give up. Alex sums up how he thought about this natural process in these words, “If you follow nature’s logic and nature’s model then that would probably be a way to design a system of managing investments that could potentially be infinitely sustainable and infinitely generate profits from investing.”Why TRUTH matters when it comes to investment strategyMost financial experts write about the importance of strategy, discipline, and patience in investing, and Alex embraces those principles as well. But he adds a fourth area of focus in his approach—TRUTH. He explains it this way:You have to understand how the system works (the systems of human society, human psychology, economy, and the markets that stem from them). As you learn about these systems, you must be as clear as possible about the data you observe and the conclusions you make. By contrast, today’s financial press is biased, erroneous, and many times outright false in what it asserts. Alex learned that rather than looking to experts or authorities for answers, he had to apply himself to learning how the system works. He admits, it is a lifetime’s pursuit, but the process of self-education he advises guarantees he’s always growing, understanding more and more as time goes on. Hit the play button and listen to the rest of the conversation. Alex has amazingly fresh and effective insights to share.Resources & People Mentioned ZeroHedge - an online platform that features Alex’ writingThe Four Agreements (book)Geopolitics and EmpireConnect with Alex Krainerhttps://isystem-tf.com - Alex’s trend following platformMarkets Trends & Profits YouTube Channel (Alex’s channel)The Naked Hedgie (Alex’s blog)Alex’s book on Commodities Trading menti

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