How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979
Prediction markets are all the rage, but how do you trade them without a leg up on information? Markus Thielen says it’s about math and “the wisdom within the crowd.”
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Show Notes
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The prediction market meta is piping hot and everyone wants a piece of the pie.
In this episode of Unchained, 10x Research founder Markus breaks down what the competition boils down to. Plus, will other platforms follow Polymarket's lead and launch a token?
He also walks through a “near certain” trade nestled in Polymarket and shares 10 strategies that can be used to trade prediction markets without an opinion.
One key nugget: “It's the wisdom within the crowd.”
Guest:
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Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research
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Previous appearance on Unchained:
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Links
Unchained:
Timestamps:
🚀 00:00 Introduction
💡 3:07 Why Markus says prediction market adoption is still in its infancy
👀 6:23 Are speculators abandoning bitcoin for prediction markets?
🧏 8:10 How trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets
⚖️ 11:48 How Polymarket and Kalshi compare in strengths and weaknesses
⚡️ 15:12 Why Markus thinks Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to remain the dominant players
📝 19:15 What traders should consider when choosing a prediction market platform
💥 23:05 How the POLY Airdrop could give Polymarket an edge
⁉️ 26:39 Will other prediction markets launch a token?
💡 33:19 How risks in trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets
🧠 36:31 Markus walks through a “near certain” Bitcoin trade paying 63% annualized
🤯 39:58 Strategies to trade prediction markets without having an opinion
❕️ 51:48 Why Markus avoids “moon shot” trades
⚠️ 54:11 How to trade by finding “wisdom within the crowd”
🤺 1:00:17 How prediction markets enable hedging against real world outcomes
📃 1:02:34 Final thoughts on how traders should approach prediction markets
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