UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We close out a busy week by recapping the annual UN General Assembly in New York, how an agreement was reached to avoid a shutdown of the US government, along with a look at the latest developments on the Presidential campaign trail. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affair US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the relaunch of the Municipal Market Guide publication series, Sudip drops by the studio to discuss performance trends across the muni market, along with a near-term outlook, and positioning views. We also spend some time spotlighting the Private Higher Education sector. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As September quickly draws to a close, Burkhard reflects on how this traditionally turbulent month for investors has not proven as such here in 2024. With that, Burkhard considers scenarios, or unexpected possibilities, that could serve as ‘the next surprise’ for both equity and bond investors. Plus, thoughts on the Cycling World Championship in Zurich, Switzerland.

Yesterday’s US GDP revisions offered several lessons to investors. The tendency for many countries to revise economic activity frequently, significantly, and positively is a reminder that real-time data lacks precision and data dependency is not a proper policy framework. Someone should attempt to explain that to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The 2022 “technical recession” (a media term, not an economist’s term) was predictably revised out of existence.

In the wake of new economic stimulus measures announced by China’s central bank, Xingchen Yu drops by to review the announced measures, what they’re aimed at, along with both the economic and investment implications that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie and Barry rejoin for a deeper dive look into the implications of the Fed’s commencement of policy easing to fixed income assets, in particular credit sectors. We also cover CIO’s broader thinking when it comes to positioning across fixed income, in anticipation of further easing measures by the Fed to be implemented through year-end. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategist, Barry McAlinden. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US offers the “final” revisions to second-quarter GDP alongside annual data revisions. Declining real-time date reliability means that revisions matter to economists. US growth data is generally underestimated quite a bit, in the early releases. This problem may increase in the future—for instance, budget cuts mean that labor market data is likely to become less reliable.

A fireside chat which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the US economy, the Fed, the upcoming US election, and positioning across fixed income and real estate. Featured is Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Policy interests markets, but few voters. Emotion tends to be more important in elections. The global rise of economic nationalism is rooted in emotion, but is also a policy with real world consequences. Yesterday, former US President Trump pledged to use corporate tax cuts and consumer tax increases (via tariffs) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. Who would do those jobs with near full employment was not specified. Investors have hitherto regarded Trump’s tariff proposals as being emotional rather than policy, given their extreme nature.

It’s Climate Week in New York! Amantia drops by the studio to outline the focus items of Climate Week, this as part of the annual United Nations General Assembly. We also discuss the implications of US election outcomes to climate policy, what’s in focus as it relates to ESG at the ‘State Level’, and the historical performance of sustainable investments during both Republican and Democrat administrations. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, eased home ownership regulation, and proposed support for equity markets. The measures were announced with considerable dramatic effect, presumably aiming to ensure China’s officially reported GDP data meets the official GDP target.

We kick off the trading week by reviewing the latest UBS House View and positioning recommendations. Jason also weighs whether the Fed’s aggressive commencement of easing signifies a sustained soft landing on the horizon, along with the newly in focus debate over the terminal Fed funds rate. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are a few Federal Reserve speakers scheduled, freed from the self-imposed silence that precedes a policy decision. Fed President Bostic, talking specifically on the economic outlook, is likely to attract attention. Markets want to hear that the Fed is scrambling to catch up with falling inflation, not that there is anything wrong with the economy. Fed President Kashkari is speaking on childcare—not immediately market moving, but important. Flexible working has allowed women (who are disproportionately responsible for childcare) to move to better paid jobs.

In the wake of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, the CIO fixed income team spends time reflecting on the policy shift, what to look out for in the months ahead, and what an easing policy environment means for fixed income assets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

US politics keeps resurrecting ideas from the 1970s—most recently questioning central bank independence. Some economists argue that Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the worst central bank head since Fed Chair Burns (who served US President Nixon). Burns was independent in theory, but not in practice. Former US President Trump suggested this week’s rate cut was political in nature, and that the Fed should be more under his control. US President Biden defended Fed independence yesterday.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reacts to yesterday’s decision by the FOMC to cut interest-rates for the first time in four years, and what this policy move might mean for the economy and markets. We also touch on the implications to the yield-curve, along with global environment for debt, inflation, and market preferences.

The US rate-cutting cycle began with a 50bp cut—the sort of move normally reserved for an economic emergency. The US has near full employment, steady consumption, and rising real wages. This is no economic emergency. It is not plausible to claim Federal Reserve Chair Powell knows something economists do not (especially after yesterday’s press conference). The fact that a Fed governor dissented for the first time in 19 years helped reduce the impression of panic.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Finally, several months later than it should, the Federal Reserve will cut rates today. Stressing data dependency when data are not dependable has led to this unnecessary delay. The Fed has been lucky the damage has been limited—middle-income borrowers locked in mortgages at absurdly low rates, and real rates for borrowers (deflated by income growth) have not risen too much.

Our conversation focuses on considerations around tax management, namely if the capital gains tax rates go higher, does it make sense to harvest capital gains at the lower tax rate today. We also review additional tax changes being proposed that investors should be mindful of. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Paul drops by the studio to outline the economic agendas of both candidates, and reviews the implications of certain outcomes to global entrepreneurs and business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is hedonism day in the US, with the release of August retail sales data. Two limits to the data. This is a value measure, and US goods prices have been falling for four months now. This underrepresents consumption at a time when people are still favoring fun over goods. Instagram reels of holidays and congealing restaurant meals cost money (and of that spending, only the congealing restaurant meals are captured in retail sales).

We begin by updating on the second assassination attempt of former President Trump, and where that investigation stands. We also discuss where negotiations stand as it relates a government funding bill, bipartisan legislative initiatives aimed at China, along with a look at the polls a week out from the recent Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The big event this week is the anticipated commencement of Fed rate cuts. Joining us to discuss outcome expectations, potential market response, and why focusing on the size of the cuts is not the most important issue, is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. A rate cut is clearly expected (and long overdue), as inflation pressures continue to fade in the US. However, a rate cut of more than 25bps seems unlikely—while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic. Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely.

As we close out another trading week, Matt drops by the podcast to reflect on recent equity market return drivers, along with recaps this week’s inflation data. We also outline current views on equity positioning, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The team discusses takeaways from the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, CIO’s latest views on the state of the race, and investment implications. Featured speakers are Jason Chandler, Head of GWM Americas, Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

The European Central Bank is expected to ease rates a quarter point today, as it continues its policy of following inflation lower. Seen over a proper time frame this is not properly a stimulus, as it is more focused on stabilizing real rates. Lagarde’s press conference will hopefully signal a steady pace of rate cuts to come.

Our conversation revisits the progress of energy transitions across the globe, as growing global energy demand and regional geopolitics are making transitions more complex. We also spend time highlighting the technological innovations at work, along with review how to invest in these energy transitions. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard returns following a late-summer hiatus to bring us up to speed on how the global market and macro landscapes have evolved over the past month, and what to look out for in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing how investors should factor politics into investment decision making, along with take reading on the health of economies across the globe.

The market consequences of the US presidential debate rested on whether it changed probabilities around the election, and whether more substantial policy insights were offered. On the former, betting markets and the media suggest US Vice President Harris “won”—although debate victory does not always translate into electoral victory. On the latter, this was a debate of social media memes more than in-depth policy analysis.

Hear insights from David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities, CIO Americas, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Municipal Securities, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The only scheduled US presidential debate is after US markets have closed today. This is near enough to the election for investors to care. Investors’ focus is whether the debate influences election probabilities, and if the candidates offer new policy insights.

The Snapshot is back in session with a busy stretch of weeks ahead - Jason reflects on the current state of the US economy and recent market performance, along with previews upcoming inflation data, and next week’s FOMC meeting. We also touch on the prospects for a recession in the US, along with review CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.

The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.

As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Alejo stops by the studio to outline the implications of different outcome scenarios to emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following Canada’s decision to dramatically tax Canadian consumers of electric vehicles made in China, China has launched anti-dumping investigations into Canadian exports. “Dumping” is the deliberate sale of exports at below market price. It is not a common occurrence, but it is a convenient way of pursuing economic nationalism (per US and EU accusations of dumping against China).

In Germany, the far-right AfD won the largest share of the vote in Thuringia’s state elections. That and high support levels for the AfD and the far-left BSW in eastern Germany remind investors that prejudice politics is widespread and persistent. Industrial revolutions create insecurity about jobs, income, and social status. The causes are complex, but people crave simplicity. Blaming a scapegoat (scapegoat economics) offers simplicity, and encourages prejudice politics.

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

In this global CIO livestream, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and his colleagues from around the world will delve into the recent market volatility and subsequent corrections. They discuss the implications of these changes and share their investment outlook for the months ahead.

The cycle of European consumer price inflation data is about to start again (in reality, this is pretty much a perpetual cycle). The Spanish and German preliminary August numbers are due today. Both are expected to show a fairly sizable decline. That means, of course, that real interest rates are rising. The ECB should continue to chase inflation down, not to offer policy stimulus but to maintain policy stability.

There is little macroeconomic data today. Asian markets have been moved by corporate news, with micro evidence of additional weakness from China’s consumers. At a time of structural change, the assumptions behind macroeconomic data can become further and further removed from reality. Corporate data should be more precise, but listed companies are relatively unimportant in most economies.

We weigh in on the state of the race and investment implications following the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Featured are Tom McLoughlin, Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore