"Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”" by PatrickL
TYPE III AUDIO (All episodes) · TYPE III AUDIO
March 6, 202319m 16s
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Show Notes
---
client: ea_forum
project_id: curated
feed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__forecasting
narrator: pw
qa: mds
narrator_time: 1h30m
qa_time: 0h30m
---
This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to the median of the experts’ predictions.
My analysis suggests that the experts did a fairly good job of forecasting (Brier score = 0.21), and would have been less accurate if they had predicted each development in AI to generally come, by a factor of 1.5, later (Brier score = 0.26) or sooner (Brier score = 0.29) than they actually predicted.
Original article: