"Pref Analysis / Deep Dive" | True North Podcast | Ep. 42

<p>🧭 MSTR True North episode 42: The crew explores Bitcoin as corporate capital, synthetic yield, and how it’s driving in ovation in the credit markets. From mNAV to macro risk models, this episode highlights the process of building a balance sheet in a market that is build in a choric climate. 🎛️ As of this recording, 10/22/25, Strategy's (MSTR) performance:</p> <ul> <li>Open: $293.02</li> <li>Close: $280.81</li> <li>Volume: 15,129,500 Shares</li> <li>mNAV: 1.29</li> <li>Market Cap: $80.64B</li> <li>U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 132</li> <li>BTC: 640,418</li> </ul> <p>⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8">00:00:00</a> - Cue the music: Intro, agenda and NFA</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=315s">00:05:15</a> - Early market signal: Bitcoin undervaluation and upside</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=440s">00:07:20</a> - Rate environment shift: Lower yields boost preferreds</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=588s">00:09:48</a> - Regulatory barriers: Regulators globally blocking BTC treasuries</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=711s">00:11:51</a> - Treasury structures: Treasuries taking advantage of premiums and complex warrants</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=803s">00:13:23</a> - Balance sheet leverage: 102K BTC, $69B in assets</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=1035s">00:17:15</a> - Perpetual preferreds: Yield spreads and call dynamics</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=1427s">00:23:47</a> - Synthetic yield: Preferreds as digital labor</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=1930s">00:32:10</a> - BTC income engine: Arbitrage between growth and cost</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=2239s">00:37:19</a> - Physical vs digital labor: Lessons from real-world work with Tim Kotzman</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=2524s">00:42:04</a> - Backtest results: $1M BTC generates $5.5M income</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=3311s">00:55:11</a> - Lognormal model: Baseline for BTC risk modeling</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=3421s">00:57:01</a> - Jump & GARCH models: Simulating BTC shocks and volatility clusters</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=3914s">01:05:14</a> - Probabilistic outcomes: The path to a quadrillion dollar valuation</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=4250s">01:10:50</a> - New issuance strategy: Risk curves for preferreds</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=4514s">01:15:14</a> - Pension disruption thesis: Preferreds as value innovation</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=4560s">01:16:00</a> - Capital sourcing: Investor interest with conditions</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=5001s">01:23:21</a> - Store-of-value thesis: Bitcoin as capital</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=5080s">01:24:40</a> - Innovation advantage: Gunpowder, Bitcoin, and open systems</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=5307s">01:28:27</a> - Bitcoin credit blueprint: Bonds, insurance, and refinanced debt</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=5491s">01:31:31</a> - Digital treasury shift: Bitcoin adoption accelerating fast and the robotaxi moment</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz2LE_21q5c&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=8&t=5735s">01:35:35</a> - Final thoughts: Solei’s wisdom on display, mispriced risk and importance of education</li> </ul> <p>SOCIAL MEDIA:</p> <ul> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/PunterJeff">https://x.com/PunterJeff</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/BenWerkman">https://x.com/BenWerkman</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/nithusezni">https://x.com/nithusezni</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/TimKotzman">https://x.com/TimKotzman</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/Z06Z07">https://x.com/Z06Z07</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris">https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/RealTrollstein">https://x.com/RealTrollstein</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/MasonFoard">https://x.com/MasonFoard</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/hillery_dan">https://x.com/hillery_dan</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/JBerneburg">https://x.com/JBerneburg</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/TheJesseMK">https://x.com/TheJesseMK</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/thebitcoingal">https://x.com/thebitcoingal</a></li> </ul> <p>MSTR TRUE NORTH LINKS:</p> <ul> <li>True North Website: <a href="https://www.mstrtruenorth.com">https://www.mstrtruenorth.com</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/MSTRTrueNorth">https://x.com/MSTRTrueNorth</a></li> <li>🛒 MERCH: <a href="https://thehodlshop.com/collections/t">https://thehodlshop.com/collections/t</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbHl2RmMxX25yYmJwdFN1bjU0VVFfRUREMHlZZ3xBQ3Jtc0tuZnFnQWtqTktpTTlTV2VhUzRNTUMyVkVGQVRkUjdvQ1JXNlVTdldZRE5OXzh1Y1NkdXpxc1FndXNGc2tmZXhyd2ZObzNVVEptbW1NTWFVMlVFcTJ5UG56ZDFEX1lyR3l1V1dWQ3BaTTdFcW1ST0duaw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fthehodlshop.com%2Fcollections%2Ft..&v=Wz2LE_21q5c">..</a>.</li> <li>Youtube: @MSTRTrueNorth</li> </ul> <p>MSTR Links:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.mstr-tracker.com">https://www.mstr-tracker.com</a></li> <li><a href="https://saylortracker.com/">https://saylortracker.com/</a></li> <li><a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/">https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.strategy.com/">https://www.strategy.com/</a></li> </ul> <p>Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions. </p> <p>• <em>True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at <a href="http://www.sec.gov">www.sec.gov</a>.</em></p> <ul> <li>Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.</li> </ul>