No Days Off | True North Podcast | Ep. 38

<p>🧭 MSTR True North episode 38: Soleil & Dan breakdown Strategy’s credit stack, BTC accumulation strategy, preferreds, rate risk, and AI macro themes dissected. Topics also include Strike, Strife, Stretch, MSTR mNAV, BTC vs gold, and Fed policy. 🎛️ As of this recording, 8/27/25, Strategy's (MSTR) performance:</p> <ul> <li>Open: $348.68</li> <li>Close: $342.06</li> <li>Volume: 8,379,611 shares</li> <li>mNAV: 1.56</li> <li>Market Cap: ~97.36B</li> <li>U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 108</li> <li>BTC: 632,457</li> </ul> <p>⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12">00:00:00</a> - Intro: filtering out the noise and providing signal</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=199s">00:03:19</a> - Macro Indicators: Services PMI ties to BTC moves</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=342s">00:05:42</a> - Spot BTC Positioning: Low leverage, resilient long-term strategy</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=745s">00:12:25</a> - Duration gap: whats the next pref flavor to fill the gap</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=863s">00:14:23</a> - Labor Market & Fed Pivot: Weak payrolls, yield curve, rate cut setup</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=1135s">00:18:55</a>- AI’s attack on jobs: Bitcoin is the only way to capture the deflationary effects</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=1332s">00:22:12</a> - Inflation Outlook & Fed: Tariffs, base case, policy shift</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=1538s">00:25:38</a> - Bitcoin vs Gold Thesis: BTC outperformance, gold lag on inflation</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=1807s">00:30:07</a> - MNAVs & Fear Index: Sentiment tools, credit signals, BTC risk</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=1997s">00:33:17</a> - Stretch Yield Mechanics: Monthly coupon, par targeting strategy</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=2260s">00:37:40</a> - S&P 500 Inclusion Odds: Market betting, mispriced probabilities</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=2433s">00:40:33</a> - BTC Valuation Frameworks: Minor breakevens, long-dated call logic</li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LPXxbg5r38&list=PLZwX4wnt0OyHTqt-SQjeAG8ntakEqjKt1&index=12&t=2626s">00:43:46</a> - MSTR Capital Forecast: Preferreds, ATM issuance, $175B growth thesis</li> </ul> <p>SOCIAL MEDIA:</p> <ul> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/PunterJeff">https://x.com/PunterJeff</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/BenWerkman">https://x.com/BenWerkman</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/nithusezni">https://x.com/nithusezni</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/TimKotzman">https://x.com/TimKotzman</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/Z06Z07">https://x.com/Z06Z07</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris">https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/RealTrollstein">https://x.com/RealTrollstein</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/MasonFoard">https://x.com/MasonFoard</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/hillery_dan">https://x.com/hillery_dan</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/JBerneburg">https://x.com/JBerneburg</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/TheJesseMK">https://x.com/TheJesseMK</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/thebitcoingal">https://x.com/thebitcoingal</a></li> </ul> <p>MSTR TRUE NORTH LINKS:</p> <ul> <li>True North Website: <a href="https://www.mstrtruenorth.com">https://www.mstrtruenorth.com</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/MSTRTrueNorth">https://x.com/MSTRTrueNorth</a></li> <li>🛒 MERCH: <a href="https://thehodlshop.com/collections/t">https://thehodlshop.com/collections/t</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa0VwUkUyRjNnbGpZanNicHAzRzhrSjNYaE83d3xBQ3Jtc0ttMlpmV0tsZWt6UVYxMk5FUEd1Qko1b2lHUXZIc0VhZ2tUOTVPUDU0emJ3VXVMNlFqUkkySFVaWm9xTGhOS2JnRUZySExLQWJ0WVdzd3dQZTFVYkRGZkRuaTVjakVmdWc2S1o5bGx0OEtKaUNMSlJoMA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fthehodlshop.com%2Fcollections%2Ft..&v=0LPXxbg5r38">..</a>.</li> <li>Youtube: @MSTRTrueNorth</li> </ul> <p>MSTR Links:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.mstr-tracker.com">https://www.mstr-tracker.com</a></li> <li><a href="https://saylortracker.com/">https://saylortracker.com/</a></li> <li><a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/">https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.strategy.com/">https://www.strategy.com/</a></li> </ul> <p>Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions. </p> <p>• <em>True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at <a href="http://www.sec.gov">www.sec.gov</a>.</em></p> <ul> <li>Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.</li> </ul>