Lies, predictions, experiments, and bets

Squirrel and Jeffrey discuss various ways to make statements about the future ("this feature will take a week" or "users will buy 20% more if we cut prices in half") and disagree about exactly how valuable they are and how to use them. SHOW LINKS: - Tilted Slider: https://agileconversations.com/blog/dont-add-more-metrics/ - Toyota Kata: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mrother/Homepage.html - Thinking in Bets: https://www.annieduke.com/thinking-in-bets/ - Estimates are Lies: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/09-15-estimates.html - Superforcasting: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 - Betting Market: https://manifold.markets Events: - Jtf at CITCON Europe Oct 14th & 15th: https://citconf.com/zwolle2022/ - Jtf at DevOps Enterprise Summit Oct 18th-20th: https://events.itrevolution.com/lasvegas/ - Squirrel live in Vienna Oct 20th: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/10-20-vienna.html - Squirrel live in Miami early November: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/11-09-miami.html --- Our book, Agile Conversations, is out now! See https://agileconversations.com where you can order your copy and get a free video when you join our mailing list! We'd love to hear any thoughts, ideas, or feedback you have about the show. Email us at [email protected]