Top Traders Unplugged

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?04:14 - A new era for Germany?10:02 - The ETF space is on fire11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective21:39 - Industry performance update27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?41:07 - The cycle of returns46:07 - When trend following hits capacity53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?01:03:40 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Graham on LinkedIn.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL?15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets36:09 - Are investors misunderstanding liquidity?37:28 - How do you actually measure and think about liquidity?39:50 - Why are CTAs not widely represented in portfolio?49:14 - How to understand and master execution58:01 - Research and technology in systematic trading01:02:36 - "My love for you is like a magnitude 6 earthquake, your sharpe ratio makes me tremble in size"01:05:00 - Are we at a turning point for trend following?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has caught our attention recently?06:11 - Industry performance update14:30 - Wild moves in markets16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase?35:16 - The developments in the CTA space36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible?41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do?57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise?01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following01:13:52 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about David here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued?11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations?13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock portfolios35:35 - Giroux's view on today's capital allocation37:26 - Key advice for how to think about valuations40:47 - What kind of investors are T. Rowe Price44:50 - How the microstructure of the markets has changed over time and how it has impacted their investment strategy50:03 - The cyclicality of markets the implications of it53:34 - Do geographical funds even make sense?54:40 - How AI impacts the investing world57:56 - How would Giroux run a longer term portfolio?58:56 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads07:09 - Industry performance update09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause policy changes?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation?09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today?17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long?31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?58:40 - It will end badly for millennials01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories in the gold industry01:06:55 - The outlook for the U.S energy market01:14:02 - Europe is in a difficult energy spotCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:50 - What has caught our attention recently?06:09 - Industry performance update13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems?18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year?25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors?28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”?32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following?36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication50:58 - The pitfalls of replication strategies52:32 - What does managed futures/CTAs mean to Katy?59:14 - Why is mechanical replication often simplified versions of a full trend following system?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Edward on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman08:24 - The failures of economic warfare14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays?22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs32:56 - What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool?37:52 - What is the entity list and what is it used for?38:55 - Technology chokepoints and the challenges they pose46:08 - The secret to the American success48:29 - Is the price cap on Russian oil actually working as intended?53:31 - The oil market is changing55:17 - Where is the global economy heading?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Graham on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:11 - What has caught our attention recently?03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world?05:58 - Our current observations on trend10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better?23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto29:47 - Industry performance update31:42 - Q1, Rick: Is a cross-over system typically the primary tool for Trend?37:14 - The origins of breakout systems41:36 - The taxi driver problem46:15 - Using trend as a alternative defensive strategy50:27 - Are investors expecting more from trend following?53:35 - Defensive equities and the impact of Deepseek57:59 - The disconnect between price and valueCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally. Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Follow Anatoly on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?19:56 - How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading strategy22:24 - How they manage the managers25:22 - How they approach netting cost27:40 - Their process for paying managers30:59 - Their manager onboarding process38:41 - Why traders make more money at Nickel Digital than anywhere else40:52 - What is the average sharpe ratio in the crypto space?43:19 - The tech backbone - how Nickel Digital is connected to exchanges46:08 - FTX collapse - The most stressful period for their business49:46 - How they manage price and risk in 24 hours/day markets54:06 - How crypto differ from regular markets57:09 - The pitfalls of trading crypto01:02:35 - What is their long term vision for Nickel Digital?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold?04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world11:25 - Industry performance update15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable?21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strategy for greater market diversification?24:49 - Q3, Chris: Does the use of ETFs to backtest Rob’s trend following strategies provide an accurate representation of performance?29:41 - Q4, Steve: Any pointers on how to use predictive modelling techniques (linear regression, etc) and how would we combine it with your forecast scaling framework. Also can you comment on potential objective functions to use?32:54 - Q5, Vik: Once you’ve included established risk premia rules like trend, carry, and fundamental valuations, do most research efforts by experienced teams in big and small firms amount to just fancy branding exercises? In a competitive environment where everyone is working with more or less the same data, is it possible to meaningfully move the needle?38:19 - Q6, Andrew: Approximately about a year and a half ago or more you published on X that you were making a discretionary trade increasing your bond position. I am Just curious how that trade worked out and if you think, in retrospect, that discretionary call was correct? And are there any learnings for the rest of us about when to know if a discretionary call makes sense?40:33 - Q7, Paul: What is the benefits/drawbacks of having an absolute strategy, that just looked at if the post returns were positive or negative (rather than relative to the performance of the asset class)?43:12 - Q8, Samuel: What does the research say (if any) of trend following strategies that don't rely on lagging indicators? To your knowledge has anyone done any studies using the current state of monthly/quarterly/yearly candles for a trend following system?48:41 - Q9, CryptoCaptain: How to handle missing data when contracts get delisted and then re-listed. Chatgpt suggested that I use Co-integration and Error Correction Models to fill the missing data because the larger contract data is available. What are other things I can try out?52:01 - Key insights from Quantica on position sizing55:14 - What should we be paying for risk?59:10 - Should you still optimize for sharpe?01:02:10 - Trends and Reversions in Financial Markets01:09:43 - The economic consequences of Donald TrumpCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...chec

In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped?15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches?25:14 - The challenges of managing risk as a multi-strat manager26:59 - How hedge funds deal with portfolio constraints29:25 - Opportunities and risks in private markets35:37 - How high yield portfolios are allocated37:31 - Which managers do they prefer?39:49 - How to assess hedge funds as a manager and vice versa44:51 - How de Bruin uses his backgammon experience when selecting managers47:54 - Move the managers to where there is more edge50:05 - Where does the disappointment in hedge fund allocation stem from?53:36 - Are hedge funds becoming more open to high volatility strategies?54:49 - What are Edmond de Rothschild looking for in managers?56:41 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing16:07 - Industry performance update19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 202523:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad sense22:19 - The most important thing you can do for your portfolio24:09 - Big problems are big money25:08 - A historical perspective of the economy27:43 - Are we moving into an era of greater economic intervention?30:11 - Was Covid19 the beginning of a new era for inflation?34:07 - Why private markets are crucial for your portfolio37:39 - Tips to avoid investing on trends that are peaking42:41 - Overcoming the behavioural challenges as an investor47:04 - Half of the battle is mental49:55 - Advice to become a great investor52:16 - Understanding your relationship to money54:31 - Practical ideas for investing with ESG57:25 - Haefele's perspective on US international relationships01:00:15 - Key advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?06:20 - Industry performance update11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing56:08 - The core of trend following58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers01:00:03 - The business of trend following01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?01:11:22 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Matthew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit crisis?38:49 - Is there a productivity boom in sight?42:25 - Will the deportation become a growth choker?44:45 - Are we seeing a slow down in housing and rent?50:10 - What could be done to save the dollar?59:36 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:16 - A flurry of activities04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?16:04 - The implications of the regime shift17:57 - Industry performance update19:21 - The state of bond markets from an uncertainty perspective21:16 - Do indices differentiate between different kinds of uncertainty?24:45 - How the Trump administration contributes to increased economic uncertainty28:58 - Are we entering a new, golden age?33:31 - Do other strategies need adjustment to adapt to the uncertainty?37:31 - Anything is possible44:01 - Mastering the balance between convergent and divergent strategies51:51 - How the banking sector could become less stable the coming years56:05 - Analyzing economic shocks using a complex systems frameworkCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Read David's report here.Episode TimeStamps: 01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 202408:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility?24:44 - Positioning is all that matters29:31 - "Correlation is a bitch"33:31 - Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy37:57 - The difference between credit and vol investors42:07 - The good outcome is a recession45:36 - All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance48:49 - The state of interest rates and FX trading57:24 - Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy?01:03:46 - The outlook of markets - where are we heading?01:09:18 - Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future01:16:14 - Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance01:27:22 - The recession might come sooner than we thinkCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?10:20 - A world of unexpected political events13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?16:06 - The state of the global macro environment25:10 - Industry performance update28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?35:01 - Are we seeing signs of a catastrophic bubble?40:14 - 2025 - a deja vu to 1995?42:24 - Advice for constructing a robust trend following portfolio54:49 - What do trend following portfolios have in common with race cars?01:00:34 - Is ESG ruining portfolio performance?01:03:01 - The fashion has changedCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Bill on X.Episode TimeStamps: 02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt06:35 - No pain, no gain08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data20:39 - Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their system22:39 - How they approach trading times25:07 - Combining short and long term trading26:52 - How they avoid overfitting and underfitting30:58 - How Gebhardt implements his experience from the energy space33:54 - How many markets do they trade?35:50 - Accessing the domestic futures markets36:56 - Why are single name equities so special to 10Dynamics?41:08 - How they approach VIX futures43:39 - Their perspective on replication strategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?06:39 - Industry performance update08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?55:31 - Will Elon Musk change the narrative around China?59:02 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow William on X and read his book.Episode Timestamps:01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path13:51 - The power of friendships20:21 - A key component to achieve success22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful26:47 - How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases34:23 - Common biases among successful investors41:10 - How we can broaden our perspective to include happiness in our perception of wealth51:45 - Advice to become a healthy successful investor56:58 - How to set yourself up to survive economic downturns01:05:00 - How successful investors avoid being taken out of the game01:11:15 - How successful investors use AI in their investment strategies01:15:31 - How we can use storytelling to demystify complex financial topics01:25:25 - Green's advice for other investors01:31:53 - How different will the future actually be from the past?01:38:57 - How do you identify ideas and lessons that really mattersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 01:20 - Our expectations going into 202507:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing10:21 - Industry performance update11:49 - A deep dive into indices17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index23:13 - What returns can you expect from a CTA replication index?27:21 - What are the average fees in today's indices?30:31 - The benefits of replication34:04 - The drivers of replication strategies40:50 - How CTA replicators handle inflection points43:11 - What happens to an index if its underlying model changes50:21 - Do trend followers in general make big changes to their models?52:30 - How the AUM landscape has evolved57:06 - Can you replicate a pod shop?01:03:02 - Why many allocators are missing out on trend following01:11:57 - What is going on with Blackrock?01:15:29 - Big news from Andrew01:21:05 - The challenges of complying with ESG metrics01:23:58 - It's all about the narrative01:26:48 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals including her work to establish a new non-partisan institute to provide accurate and secure data available to everyone. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Julia on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Julia Lane03:42 - We need to rethink how we generate trustworthy data12:49 - How does data collection look like in the U.S?18:14 - How do we find out what firms are working in artificial intelligence?24:53 - How Lane believes we can solve the challenges of collecting trustworthy data30:38 - How you maintain trust from an operational point of view32:38 - What we can learn from the New Zealand data collection system35:57 - How confident can we be in the economic data38:26 - We need a standardised approach to data collection40:10 - Lane's future plans for solving the challenges of data collectionCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking13:20 - The world has gone completely mad19:30 - The outlook for replication strategies28:22 - How will the trend following industry look in 5 years?42:02 - Has the appetite for alternatives destroyed alternatives?50:16 - Where will the dollar go the coming year?59:14 - Our outrageous predictions for 2025Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn.Learn more about J8 Capital.Episode TimeStamps: 16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital?05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach?09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system?16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage strategies24:44 - Their perspective on going long term VIX26:34 - How you valuate risk when putting multiple systems together29:59 - Is the best benchmark for them a multistrat hedge fund?33:04 - How does Sharma's short term systematic system work?37:58 - What is Redwood's correlation to the short term traders index?38:17 - How Sharma is trading the markets41:17 - How is Sharma's strategy performing?44:28 - How Sharma runs and maintains a 24 hours a day process46:36 - The future direction of J8 CapitalCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations02:33 - A trend following recap of 202413:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?17:21 - What role crowding has played in 202424:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?32:32 - Have markets become less efficient over time?40:28 - Are we actually using AI in our work?46:00 - What was the biggest mistake we learned in 2024?49:21 - Why have we experienced such a high dispersion in 2024?57:05 - Wrapping upCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ed on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate22:27 - The roaring 20's scenario25:46 - What is fuelling the productivity?30:12 - The data behind productivity31:58 - Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?33:20 - What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?36:42 - How is international policy playing out in the U.S?40:40 - Yardeni's outlook for the stock market43:43 - Is a recession unavoidable?45:40 - What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?48:27 - Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin52:19 - Why play with gold when you have crypto?54:10 - Don't mess with the bond vigilantes57:42 - Where can you following Yardeni's work?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?02:13 - Industry performance update03:48 - Our takeaways from 202409:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?14:15 - Concluding on 202415:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 202420:18 - Optimism for the managed futures space?23:10 - A historical perspective on volatility sizing30:50 - How different styles of trend following work and perform35:51 - When is long vol a good strategy to use?37:41 - The challenges of trend following as a strategy41:36 - Our perspective on running portable alpha49:15 - Where does portable alpha sit in a portfolio?51:59 - Tweaking your trend following portfolio to accommodate equities54:06 - Thoughts on going into 2025Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Paul on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan06:02 - The state of the European economy09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?29:04 - An economic plague in the UK34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?44:32 - The potential for supply side economics49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?01:01:30 - Advice for other economistsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally08:06 - Industry performance update09:06 - Our key observations from 202411:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives18:38 - Industry performance numbers20:02 - How Idiosyncratic risk works26:55 - Setting up the optimal defense28:31 - Don't be scared of "days like that"32:21 - Troublemakers in the class room38:58 - TINA is back in global markets - but with a makeover40:45 - Our thoughts on the upcoming U.S administration43:37 - How do we get trend following into our portfolios?48:33 - The challenges of propagating trend following51:53 - How to approach market capacity the right way55:34 - Different times call for different markets58:47 - Accents are causing trouble for AI01:00:03 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?11:28 - How would Crosby like people to read his book?13:40 - Does there exist a perfect moment to invest?17:19 - Crosby's perspective on valuations21:08 - Does it makes sense to use financial advisors?25:33 - Taking the worst case off the table30:00 - How to achieve psychological, financial safety with a low budget32:25 - The relationship between fees and performance34:47 - Giving your accounts a purpose38:04 - The name of your accounts matters41:23 - We have been wrong about will power45:01 - Off-loading your mental bandwidth46:42 - The cheat meal of your financial life48:03 - Are we thinking too much about happiness?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?12:14 - Industry performance update17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops56:35 - The inevitable outcome of cycles01:06:40 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Keith on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough05:01 - From hedge fund to research07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals21:26 - McCullough's framework for monitoring signals24:25 - When can herding be a distraction?26:54 - The current market from a quad perspective31:09 - Reassessing the narrative of the deficits35:50 - The outlook of the dollar38:16 - The (un?)importance of valuations41:07 - How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework43:15 - Getting on the right side of the K45:12 - The market from the 3 pots perspective48:33 - Developing a respect for the markets52:07 - McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth56:01 - McCullough's philosophy to investing58:33 - McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following59:50 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.Add to Show Notes-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?05:50 - Industry performance update07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 202517:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 202539:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders15:35 - An example of how they handle flow18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?36:59 - Proactive and reactive management38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?40:42 - How they implement reactive management41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning53:38 - A work in progress54:46 - Working with a moving targetCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Industry performance update10:17 - New times for bonds14:37 - The issue is always in the details19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder03:20 - How did she approach her research?07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time16:25 - How the role of the Fed has evolved historically22:35 - How gold has impacted the24:17 - Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?29:16 - Is 2% inflation the wrong target?35:27 - Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making40:29 - How does Binder measure inflation expectations?47:10 - Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?49:57 - Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?06:26 - An analysis of the election11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome18:11 - A global macro perspective28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?31:39 - Industry performance update37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaserCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Stephen on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations27:26 - The state of the labour market32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?53:49 - The outlook for fixed income56:07 - Geopolitical concerns57:37 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?03:30 - Industry performance update04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event16:49 - Picking the right managers19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality26:53 - Different products for different market segments33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?53:49 - Tell me what you love57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocationCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jason on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman04:28 - The state of the economy04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?09:40 - The outlook for inflation12:34 - A move in the right direction?14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?51:06 - China's influence on the global economy54:05 - The outlook of economical growth55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?57:12 - Advice for other investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked10:37 - An economic Kayfabe13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?18:44 - Industry performance update20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies01:13:30 - A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?01:20:00 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis06:34 - Can trading be taught?08:50 - The story behind the trading rules12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks56:28 - Their view on replication strategies01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?01:08:47 - The future of trend following01:11:11 - Criticise ideas, not peopleCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes07:47 - Industry performance update09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!43:35 - The outlook for trend following46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?01:00:40 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces43:09 - The state of the European economy47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida03:39 - A rough time for trend following08:39 - Industry performance update12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following01:06:22 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden06:06 - A whole year without cash08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?12:40 - The implications of a cashless society23:53 - A big hurdle26:04 - Building a better mouse trap28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?38:11 - The dark side of the Fed Coin41:36 - How the borrowing process works in banks44:55 - How would the Fed control credits?51:56 - Is Holden working with the Australian government?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?07:37 - Industry performance update09:02 - Reflecting on August and September12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?21:32 - Finding the right trading speed24:15 - Out-performing is a long game27:47 - Its time to move direction29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time39:24 - Baltas' thoughts on correlation forecasting42:26 - Pairing risk parity and trend following48:25 - A dangerous game51:35 - How much should you allocate to trend following?01:01:06 - Is the benchmark changing?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Amy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski08:02 - How they think about manager selection09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?11:40 - How they assess their investment objective13:07 - How they manage risk14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have evolved19:13 - Is there a place for multi-manager pods?20:47 - A war for talent22:34 - How they approach internal vs external management26:34 - How is their team set up?28:48 - What are they looking for when assessing managers?30:54 - Making allocation to emerging managers33:10 - What characterize their managers?34:48 - Assessing the scalability of a strategy37:29 - What makes a good allocator39:23 - Advice for independant hedge funds41:40 - What types of early stage managers do they look out for?42:55 - How they approach their portfolio construction45:25 - How they manage fund constraints46:48 - What is their typical ticket size?47:31 - Reaching the right level of transparency49:46 - Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager51:14 - Managing drawdowns52:56 - Their decision-making process55:58 - How they approach commodities57:33 - Advice for other managers01:00:18 - Advice for people coming into the industryCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer