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Top Traders Unplugged

Top Traders Unplugged

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SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why you should prioritise price over any other form of dataHow bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend FollowersHow mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to endWhy money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too muchThe increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAsHow to embrace the mentality of cutting losses-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:55 - Macro recap from Niels06:07 - Weekly review of returns13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve16:17 - Q1 & Q2; Shibojet: What are your thoughts about a dynamic trading system that focuses more on what’s working over any given time-period, rather than a static trading system with rigid criteria? Why don’t Trend Followers trade cash equities?39:32 - Q3; Aldo: Is it worth trading a small account using micro-futures? What are your thoughts on pyramiding into positions?50:51 - Conquering the fear of losses53:45 - How many markets should we trade?01:06:58 - Benchmark performance update01:07:56 - CBOE announce new Bond futuresCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

May 16, 20211h 11m

SI139: How to Beat Unpredictable Markets ft. Moritz Seibert

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meetingThe likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest ratesHow to overcome the unpredictable nature of marketsThoughts on De-FiIncreasing sustainability requirements of the investment industryThe newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CMETrend Following on cryptocurrencies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:21 - Macro recap from Niels02:49 - Weekly review of returns11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME36:50 - Ethereum futures45:46 - Continued outflows from Cathy Wood’s ARKK innovation ETF46:42 - Q1; John: What is your methodology for selecting which contract month to trade, and when to roll?52:46 - Q2; Brian: What topics, articles, blogs, podcasts or books do you recommend for somebody who wants to learn about cryptocurrencies as fast and easy as possible?59:28 - Benchmark performance update01:00:11 - Recommended listening or reading this week: 'Why the Price of Lumber Has Soared' on the Odd Lots Podcast and Michael Lewis on the Masters in Business Podcast and Tom Basso on Trend Following RadioCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

May 9, 20211h 4m

SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following systemRob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securitiesThe ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky betsThe most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems'Caveman-style' Trend FollowingHow to hedge against inflationTrend Following's success in rising interest-rate environmentsTesla's recent earnings-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:27 - Weekly review of returns09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service: How do you select single stocks as a Trend Follower?35:02 - Q2; Alfred: Does backwardation lead to price rallies?41:10 - The fund who are now nicknamed ‘Gamma Hammer’ for betting on tranquil markets48:07 - Q3; Riccardo: What does Rob think about mean reversion strategies, and how they can be complimented with Trend Following? What are your thoughts on Systematic Macro strategies, and how do they compare with Trend Following?57:16 - Q4; Michael: How long would it take to convert a system made in Microsoft Excel, to Python?01:00:20 - Q5; James: What do you think about exiting winning trades in stages, rather than at once?01:06:08 - Hedging against inflation01:11:06 - Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

May 3, 20211h 13m

SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky marketsThe differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-onlyHow a top trader should efficiently process new dataModern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend FollowingWhether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUMWhy you should avoid 'timing the market'The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:00 – Macro recap from Niels08:46 – Weekly review of performance13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic28:37 – New style Trend Following with machine learning versus classical Trend Following53:54 – Some of the reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record01:05:03 – Q1 Raymond: What are some good methods for market selection, other than liquidity?01:08:35 – Q2; Dirk: Have you found significant differences between volatility-based position-sizing and a one-size-fits-all approach?01:17:10 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Apr 25, 20211h 21m

SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker

Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investmentsCoinbase's recent stock market listingPosition sizing using historical volatilityBuy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periodsMean Reversion trading versus Trend-based tradingThe infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:36 - Macro recap from Niels04:37 - Weekly review of returns09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?40:27 - Meb Faber’s recent poll on how much should be allocated to Trend Following48:31 - Q1; Danny: How do you find new positions to trade?53:09 - Q2; Mathew: How do you define a longer-term timeframe?01:00:44 - Performance recap01:01:50 - Jerry asks Niels to discuss the Top Traders Unplugged Trend BarometerCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Apr 18, 20211h 11m

SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for riskWhat stage of the bull market in stocks we might be inThe rise in commodity pricesTrading in the Chinese commodity marketsThe possible risks of trading in emerging marketsCrypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures marketsTrend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfoliocall Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:19 - Macro recap from Niels05:22 - Weekly review of returns12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?01:04:40 - Q2; John: Do you have any advice on which futures contract to trade and when to roll?01:09:14 - Q3; Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?01:14:45 - Performance recapCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Apr 11, 20211h 17m

SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker

Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading systemKnowing when 'good enough' is good enoughWhy investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amountsWhen volatility equates to riskApproaches to multi-timeframe analysis-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:46 - Macro recap from Niels04:34 - Weekly review of returns46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks?49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’?  Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation?57:16 - Q4; Nick:  Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile?01:00:07 - Performance recap01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Apr 4, 20211h 5m

SI133: Volatility Targeting ft. Rob Carver

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The case for and against Volatility TargetingWhether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environmentWhether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategiesThe credibility of NFTs as an asset class Volume analysis as a trading signalVolatility as a measure of risk-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – Macro recap from Niels04:17 – Weekly review of performance31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibrate your system?  Why do you recommend not locking in profits early, after unusually sharp portfolio increases?01:16:08 – Benchmark performance update01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo01:27:35 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette DeclercqCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mar 29, 20211h 21m

SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investingInterest rates and their effects on the trading marketsHow correlations can increase volatilityThe benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making The common perils of 'recency bias'Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returnsThe hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:14 – Macro recap from Niels06:36 – Weekly review of performance57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?1:14:42 – Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually?01:24:03 – Benchmark performance update01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo01:25:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette DeclercqCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mar 21, 20211h 28m

SI131: Winning Big During An Inflationary Environment ft. Moritz Seibert

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflationStaying humble during long winning periodsThe GameStop short-squeezeNew volatility-based ETFs for CryptocurrenciesWhy analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long runCan we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:33 - Macro recap from Niels04:45 - Weekly review of performance32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?01:02:58 - Benchmark performance update01:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Diego ParillaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mar 14, 20211h 9m

SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity riskThe benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targetingModern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend FollowingThe 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investingHow important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:45 – Macro recap from Niels03:33 – Weekly review of performance10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength?01:05:14 – Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6: Doogie; How can retail investors in the UK gain access to different CTA funds? Do you trade pair spreads? Why doesn’t Rob trade Bitcoin futures yet? Are Trend Following & Market Making returns correlated?01:09:44 – Q7, Q8 & Q9: Gustavo; How do you manage to transition from an old system to a new system? With a non-binary system, how do you reduce multi-month futures contracts? Do you adjust moving average signals according to recent volatility?01:15:39 – Benchmark performance update01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Anatomy of Bond ETF Arbitrage by the Bank of International Settlements, Pfizer's Abusive Vaccine Deals & Michael Goldstein on ‘Controlling The Bitcoin Rhetoric’Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mar 7, 20211h 23m

SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:If holding bonds "stupid"?The problem of being an economic policy engineerWhy we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systemsThe value of intuition - coup d'oeil and ClausewitzRobot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"Correlation and volatilityThe poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets Due diligence and quality of managers.Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:46 – Macro recap from Niels05:18 – Weekly review of performance01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?01:10:49 – Benchmark performance update01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo01:14:34 – Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob CarverCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Feb 28, 20211h 16m

SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels03:30 – Weekly review of performance30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program?  What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?01:13:25 – Benchmark performance update01:14:24 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Feb 22, 20211h 18m

SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:16 – Macro recap from Niels04:57 – Weekly review of performance41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber showCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Feb 15, 20211h 4m

SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro02:25 – Macro recap from Niels04:27 – Weekly review of performance42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability?  Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive?01:21:14 – Q6; Red Eagle:  How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this?  Alternatively, do you worry when both pairs are long or short?01:25:50 – Q7; Cordura:  Do you recommend Trend Following on indices only?01:31:57 – Benchmark performance update01:32:49 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Article in the Financial Times on Melvin Capital & the Gamestop frenzy, Hussman Funds recent market comments & Salem Abraham on the Meb Faber podcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Feb 7, 20211h 38m

SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:23 – Macro recap from Niels05:24 – Weekly review of performance01:04:34 – Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops?01:12:46 – Benchmark performance update01:14:27 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTubeCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jan 31, 20211h 19m

SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:41 – Macro recap from Niels03:54 – Weekly review of performance52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?57:55 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jan 24, 20211h 1m

SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures.  Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out?  What are your views on stop-losses?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:40 – Macro recap from Niels05:06 – Weekly review of performance53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & Danielle Dimartino-Booth on The Felder Report PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jan 18, 20211h 24m

SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro03:07 – Macro recap from Niels03:59 – Weekly review of performance47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: ‘Gamblers’ & Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID VaccineCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jan 10, 20211h 21m

SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System

In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system.  I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights ReservedPrivacy Policy----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HereDisclaimer

Jan 6, 202136 min

SI120: Deep dive into my own Trend Following Model

In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program.  I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:0:00 – Intro1:37 – A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show3:35 – 2020 Macro recap from Niels6:51 – How to think about trading and system development31:59 – Performance recapCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Jan 2, 202137 min

SI119: Trading TESLA & Commodity Breakout ft. Jerry & Moritz

Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels04:13 – Weekly review of performance12:34 – What is risk management?57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Dec 21, 20201h 22m

SI118: 2020 Trend Following Recap & safe-havens in 2021 ft. Mark & Moritz

Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:17 – Macro recap from Niels02:40 – Weekly review of performance13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on the Investors Podcast NetworkCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Dec 13, 20201h 13m

SI117: Why Stocks and Trend Following is a Perfect Match ft. Moritz Seibert

Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:15 – Macro recap from Niels05:14 – Weekly review of performance52:51 – Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years?  & What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?01:03:18 – Benchmark performance update01:06:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Dec 6, 20201h 12m

TTU114: 2021 Market Predictions ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology

I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Mahendra got into astrologyWhy he relocated to Kenya as a young manWhy Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global marketsWhy Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking forHow astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approachesHow human behavior fits into the astrological processMahendra’s prediction of Tesla from 2018What are Mahendra’s predictions for 2021What trend the European equities markets will followWhy Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequenceMahendra’s interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming outWhat commodities stand out to MahendraMahendra’s prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021Why investors should be careful after 2024-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mahendra on LinkedInCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Dec 2, 20201h 15m

SI116: How to manage emotions regardless of your performance ft. Moritz Seibert

In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:0:00 – Intro1:33 – Macro recap from Niels3:17 – Weekly review of performance8:13 – Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data?20:49 – Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again?25:26 – Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity?32:00 – Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth?39:49 – Benchmark performance update41:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network)Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 29, 20201h 0m

SI115: Open trade Equity vs Realized Profits and Value vs Growth ft. Rob and Moritz

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record.  Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following?  Do you recommend any hedging strategies?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:35 – Macro recap from Niels04:59 – Weekly review of performance27:16 – Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with?37:36 – Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns?  Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions?01:03:57 – Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models?01:22:48 – Benchmark performance update01:23:48 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real VisionCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 22, 20201h 27m

SI114: The importance of Short Sellers and Pfizer CEO selling stocks ft. Moritz Seibert

This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:02 – Macro recap from Niels03:09 – Weekly review of performance28:30 – Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only?38:54 – Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes?46:54 – Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats?01:00:18 – Benchmark performance update01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 16, 20201h 9m

TTU113: Why Farmland Investments is getting traction ft. Artem Milinchuk of FarmTogether

Artem Milinchuk is the CEO and Founder of FarmTogether, a firm specializing in farmland investments. Artem was born in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and while growing up in Russia, saw the importance of access to fresh food for a society. Artem joins us today to talk about his investment journey and why he feels that having farmland as an asset class in your investment portfolio can be one of the smartest investment moves you can make.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the transition from the Soviet Union to Russia influenced Artem’s investment strategiesWhat exactly constitutes farmland as an asset classHow investing in farmland has changed over the past 40 yearsHow farmland investments help multigenerational families keep their farmsWhat is the main driver for investors to move into farmlandWhy investors include farmland in their portfolios as an inflation-proof assetHow reliable is farmland investment dataWhat effect will climate change have on farmland investmentsHow secure are government farm subsidiesThe effect 5G will have on farming and farmland investingWhat are the risks to consider when investing in farmlandWhat is FarmTogether’s farmland investment processHow should an investor go about incorporating farmland into their portfolioHow much does an investor need in order to purchase a farmWhat types of investors seek out farmlandWhat are the key questions potential investors should be asking before investing in farmland-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Farmtogether on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 12, 20201h 5m

SI113: The Unknown Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager

Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: what timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:27 – Macro recap from Niels02:17 – Weekly review of performance05:01 – Niels: Where do systematic traders tend to rank in your book, compared to discretionary traders?  What is the minimum length of track record you looked at, to be considered for inclusion in your book?10:50 – Moritz:  To what extent did mean reversion traders feature in your book, versus momentum-orientated traders?16:47 – Niels: How much do you think luck played a part in the results of the traders in your new book?23:01 – Moritz: When you were interviewing the traders in your book, did you, at any time, get the feeling that there were tailwinds, outside of their control, that helped their strategies?27:41 – Niels: Some of the traders in your book blew up their accounts a few times, so can they still be called ‘wizards’ of the market?34:37 – Moritz: There seems to be opposing views on diversification in your book. What are your thoughts on this?39:07 – Niels: How do you think about the slight contradiction of discretionary traders being unemotional and not falling in love with their opinions?41:26 – Moritz: Do you think it’s possible to train random people to be great traders, as in the Turtle Traders, or do you need to be born with certain skills?45:44 – Niels: Do you believe that earlier market wizards had a different set of skills today’s market wizards?53:35 – Niels: How do we inform investors to avoid ‘straight-line’ equity returns and embrace inconsistency a little more?59:10 – Moritz: To what extent can you separate long-term traders & short-term traders in the Unknown Market Wizards book ?01:02:13 – Niels: Which statistics would you pay most attention to if you had to build a system?01:06:13 – Niels: If you were an investor, and you had to find a manager, and you could only ask them one question, what would it be?01:07:43 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 8, 20201h 11m

SI112: How and When to improve your trading system ft. Moritz Seibert

In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property.  Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations?  Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:12 – Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆02:30 – Macro recap from Niels04:43 – Weekly review of performance16:38 – Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it?34:17 – Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations?46:54 – Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity?01:00:05 – Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run?01:04:46 – Benchmark performance update01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks – Coming Into Focus podcast & Annie Duke on the Capital Allocator’s PodcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Nov 1, 20201h 12m

SI111: Trend Following pros and cons ft. Michael Covel

Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:04 – Weekly review of performance10:17 – Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making?13:07 – Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time13:16 – Moritz: How is your personal trading going?16:00 – Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends?28:50 – Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded?29:49 – Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly?30:38 – Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy?33:27 – Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years?38:24 – Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’?41:32 – Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’?43:34 – Niels: What do you think about managers overriding their systems during high-volatility periods?47:45 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI strategies?54:10 – Niels: How do you feel about the Trend Following being labelled as ‘crisis alpha’?01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update01:01:30 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Robert Rosenberg on Bloomberg’s Business Week podcast, Michael Green on The Investor’s Podcast & Naval Ravikant on the Tim Ferris podcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Oct 25, 20201h 7m

TTU112: The Art of Investing ft. Scott Lynn of Masterworks

Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity – made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today’s episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years agoHow old art is as an asset classHow analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classesWhen did art as an asset class begin to be studiedHow art returns are related to the growth of the top 1%How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new worksHow should an art collector think about riskWhat is a bad environment for art investmentHow Masterworks invests in artWhat is a standard commission when buying a piece of artWhat are the trends among art investors-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Scott on TwitterCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Oct 22, 202057 min

SI110: US Election and how to trade Cryptos with rules ft. Moritz Seibert

This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:08 – Special thank you to our listeners03:41 – Macro recap from Niels07:50 – Weekly review of performance25:53 – Q1; Adam: I’m running a crypto Trend Following strategy. How do I minimise the amount of profit lost at tops & bottoms of markets?35:40 – Q2; Brendan: My employer is now interested in using my Trend Following system.  Do I handover the code & backtests? If I decline, will they be able to sue me (I built the system using half of my own time, and half during my employer’s time)? Do you have any advice re: incentives?43:38 – Q3; Dr. Doom: Do you have any thoughts on how an Actuary could turn into a Quant trader?  What are your opinion on high frequency trading managers?46:45 – Announcement of Michael Covel joining us on next week’s episode51:37 – Q4; Thomas: Is Trend Following still suitable as an investment in a mutual fund format?01:01:48 – Benchmark performance update01:03:27 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Joel Greenblatt on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast & Felix Zulauf on the Grant Williams podcast Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Oct 19, 20201h 7m

SI109: Investing like a legend ft. Perry Kaufman

Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:25 – Weekly review of performance06:08 – Niels: How does the content in your book, Trading Systems, inform your decisions when building a system, and what do they mean to you?26:44 – Niels: How do you avoid overfitting your system to accommodate markets that may not perform well in the future?29:28 – Niels: How do you avoid being over-correlated?30:17 – Niels: How does your ranking system work when adding or removing markets from your trading universe?44:19 – Niels: How do you feel about profit targets?53:06 – Niels: Why do you believe Trend Following strategies will always be successful?57:00 – Niels: Have you found in your research that long-sided trades tend work better than short trades, and if so, have any hypothesis as to why that is?01:04:33 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on trading single stocks vs trading the indices?01:09:54 – Niels question for Moritz: How have you incorporated yourself & Perry’s work on Volatility Targeting into your trading?01:21:29 – Niels: Are there any new discoveries that you’ve found in recent years that enhance Trend Following strategies, or have we most likely found everything by now?01:24:45 – Benchmark performance update01:26:32 – Niels: Which book, that you didn’t write, would you recommend to our listeners?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Oct 12, 20201h 29m

SI108: The case for and against the Kelly Criterion ft. Robert Carver

Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:24 – Macro recap from Niels04:40 – Weekly review of performance31:11 – Q1 & Q2; Roberto: Can Rob & Moritz explain the framework behind building block ‘volatility-targeting in his book ‘Systematic Trading’? Why does Rob, in his book, disagree with trading leveraged ETFs?01:03:50 – Q3; Chris: Am I correct in avoiding the mini-futures in Silver market due to low liquidity?01:10:08 – Trend Following: short-term vs medium term vs long term01:18:05 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Oct 4, 20201h 22m

SI107: Best and Worst markets to trade and benefits of adding the S&P500 ft. Moritz Seibert

In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance.  Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following?  How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following?  Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:57 – Macro recap from Niels04:32 – Weekly review of performance32:46 – Q1; James: Why does Moritz seemingly switch his positioning in a market between long & short, some times, and not other times?39:42 – Q2 & Q3; Eduardo: What are your thoughts on inflation, bonds & Trend Following on fixed income?  How do commissions and charges affect a Trend Following strategy?59:00 – Q4; Anti: Is Moritz’s system a ‘stop & reverse’ system?01:01:02 – Q5 & Q6; Mikael K:  Can you build a trend following trading system based on Options rather than Futures? Do you have any advice for trading CFD’s?01:05:11 – Q7; Michael N: What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Trend Following?01:09:57 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Sep 27, 20201h 13m

SI106: Ray Dalio's underwhelming 2020 performance and the FED ft. Moritz Seibert

Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager.  Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached?  Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:30 – Macro recap from Niels04:36 – Weekly review of performance31:24 – Q1; Daniel: How do you size new positions once your intended maximum portfolio risk is reached?39:17 – Q2; Dave: Do you have any pointers on how effectively perform volatility targeting?55:30 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Sep 18, 202058 min

SI105: TESLA & How paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading ft. Moritz Seibert

On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of Systematic Investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks.  Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – The importance of investing psychology (with reference to Morgan Housel’s new book: The Psychology of Money)07:20 – Weekly review of performance23:32 – Discussion on the perceived safety of bonds33:05 – Q1; Mike: Do you recommend any platforms that allow you test your system?40:34 – Q2; Carmich: Can you recommend any off-the-shelf Trend Following strategies for retail traders?49:32 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Sep 13, 202052 min

GM10: MMT, Global Warming and the Uniqueness of the 2020 Crisis ft. Steve Keen

We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:COVID crisis as a demand and supply shockDeflationModern Monetary Theory (MMT)The Wealth Effect’ vs free marketsFiat and Gesselian currenciesCentral bank digital currenciesThe EuroClimate ChangeGovernment Debt and Deficits-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Steve on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Sep 9, 20201h 4m

SI104: Inconvenient truths about Trend Following ft. Roberto Osorio

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osorio, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:07 – Macro recap from Niels08:49 – Weekly review of performance09:26 – Interview with Roberto Osorio12:03 – Niels: Can you help settle the debate of how many markets are optimal to trade?19:00 – Niels: What are your thoughts on Volatility-targeting?30:41 – Niels: How do you recognise model decay?36:23 – Niels: What do you think is the best look-back period for Trend Following models?44:40 – Niels: What is your view on the most effective ‘type’ of Trend Following model?50:43 – Niels: What makes DUNN Capital so unique?55:52 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Sep 7, 202059 min

SI103: FED's Powell, Dave Portnoy and the potential Bond market bubble ft. Robert Carver

Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies.  Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation?  Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro03:01 – Macro recap from Niels22:22 – Weekly review of performance42:34 – Q1; Mike: Do you know of any Trend Followers who use the Black-Litterman model in their work?55:31 – Q2; Michael: Should you combine the weight of more than 1 entry signal, for added effectiveness?01:02:30 – Q3; from Twitter, for Rob: Do you have any update on using forecast-strength in a trading system?01:09:02 – Q4; from Twitter: Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?01:22:28 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 31, 20201h 26m

GM09: Mistakes from the past to guide us forward ft. Lyn Alden

We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:Long run debt cyclesDeleveraging and inflation in the 1920’s and 1940’sThe 2008 Great Financial CrisisThe Wealth Effect’ vs free marketsDebt and demographicsQE and inflationGeopolitics and the possibility of warPortfolio inflation hedgingBitcoinDebt jubileesPension fund investing in a low yield world-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Lyn on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 26, 20201h 1m

SI102: TESLA and the famous Tech Bubble ft. Moritz Seibert

This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies,  Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems.  Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working?  How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:12 – Macro recap from Niels17:53 – Weekly review of performance22:52 – Discussion on how to safely own gold, and the German government’s move to tax investors on their Gold ETF holdings31:56 – Q1 & Q2; Zaro: At what point do you decide that your model isn’t working?  How do you account for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?51:05 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 23, 202053 min

GM08: Watch out for The Bond Market Vigilantes ft. Jim Bianco

In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C.  Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets.  Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisisHow the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond marketsThe Wealth Effect’ vs free marketsThe current retail stock market ‘mania’The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market VigilantesThe scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printingImplications of the recent, wild price swings in OilHow the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occurHow the future may be bright, but the journey to get there may prove to be difficultJim’s thoughts on how to be positioned for the times ahead-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Jim on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 21, 20201h 6m

GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey

In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts.  Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great DepressionHow the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisisWhy politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxesHow 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemicsWhy Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recessionWhy the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numberedWhy central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currenciesTechnology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen beforeCam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the futureWhy peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Campbell on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 19, 20201h 9m

SI101: Howard Mark’s comments on managing risk and market cycles ft. Moritz Seibert

In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea.  Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:15 – Macro recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance11:25 – Howard Marks quotes on risk management and market cycles29:11 – Patience for your system vs for an individual position34:36 – Q1; Rene: How do you avoid losing a big profit during a parabolic move?40:10 – Q2 & Q3; Peregrin: Do you have any evidence of systems working better when its positions match our opinion of the macro ‘story’?  Does Trend Following system alert its manager to crowd opinions they might otherwise be unaware of?48:48 – Q4; Maurigus: Is CAGR a good measure of performance?57:06 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 17, 202059 min

SI100: How to filter your trades and staying unemotional ft. Jerry Parker

In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system,  Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Introduction03:13 – Macro recap from Niels08:16 – Weekly review of performance13:54 – The benefits of keeping it simple17:20 – Why you should take every trade & follow your rules26:16 – Jerry’s incredible story from his journey with Richard Dennis’s ‘Trading Turtles’27:30 – Some more thoughts on Volatility Targeting48:19 – The best performing sectors historically among Trend Followers50:24 – The deep history of Trend Following investors51:31 – Cliff Asness quotes from the Flirting With Models podcast01:00:41 – Performance recap01:31:00 – Some personal highlights, on our 100th episodeCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 9, 20201h 6m

GM06: The hidden danger of Passive Investing ft. Michael Green

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:Passive investingETFs and target date fundsIntergenerational inequalityReal interest rates over historyMean reversion and momentumNegative interest ratesLeverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability)MMTYield enhancement strategies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Michael on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 4, 20201h 1m

SI99: Trend Following on ETFs and how to safely invest more aggressively in stocks ft. Moritz Seibert

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns.  We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity?  Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:44 – Macro recap from Niels03:00 – Weekly review of returns04:25 – The importance of non-correlated strategies such as Trend Following or Volatility-based15:17 – Q’s 1, 2 & 3; Bruno: What is your chosen measure of liquidity, and how liquid does a market have to be, to be included in your portfolios? How do you size positions, with co-movements in mind?  Are you always trading the front-month contract?26:37 – Q4; Walter: How do you test your system’s code?33:14 – Q’s 5 & 6; Zack: Does Trend Following on ETFs work? What are the optimal time periods when analysing market correlation data?45:01 – Q7: Michael: Do you place your trades at the close, open, or other times?50:23 – Performance recapCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Aug 3, 202053 min