Optimistic but On Edge: What NFIB’s Indexes Say About Small Business in 2026

Small business owners are feeling cautiously hopeful, but far from settled. In this episode of THRIVE, host Gene Marks sits down with Holly Wade and Peter Hansen from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) to break down what their three signature indexes — Optimism, Uncertainty, and Employment — are really telling us about small business in 2026. From interest rates to federal policy shifts, find out why confidence is up, but small business owners are still holding their breath.

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Topics include:
00:00 – Episode preview and guest introduction
01:18 – Peter’s background and NFIB podcast overview
04:06 – Holly’s background and NFIB Research Center history
05:25 – NFIB Indexes: Optimism, Uncertainty & Employment
10:24 – Dealing with Bias: Optimism, politics & perspective
14:50 – NFIB survey demographics
21:41 – New NFIB Employment Index: What and why
25:21 – Reconciling NFIB data and survey challenges
29:47 – Current read on optimism and uncertainty
33:03 – Wrap up and thank you

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DISCLAIMER:
The information presented in this podcast, and that is further provided by the presenter, should not be considered legal or accounting advice, and should not substitute for legal, accounting, or other professional advice in which the facts and circumstances may warrant. We encourage you to consult legal counsel as it pertains to your own unique situation(s) and/or with any specific legal questions you may have.