Thoughts on the Market

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why the recent revival of M&A activity has room to accelerate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – a discussion of merger and acquisition activity or M&A. Last year, we had a view that this activity would pick up significantly. We think we're seeing that increase now. It has further to go. It's Wednesday, October 29th at 2pm in London. We have been firm believers at Morgan Stanley in a significant multi-year uplift in global merger and acquisition activity or M&A. That conviction remains. The incentives for this type of action are strong in our view; activity still lags what fundamentals would suggest, and supportive regulatory shifts are real. M&A has now returned, and importantly, we think there's much further to go. Indeed, M&A is very closely linked to corporate confidence, and we think investors need to consider the possibility that we'll see an even bigger surge in this confidence – or a boom. First, policy uncertainty is declining as U.S. tax legislation has now passed, and tariff rates get finalized. It's the relative direction of this uncertainty that we think matters most for corporate confidence. Second, interest rates are declining with the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of England all set to cut rates further over the next 12 months. Third, bank capital requirements may decline in the view of Morgan Stanley analysts, which would unlock more lending for these types of transactions. Fourth, and very importantly, the regulatory backdrop is becoming more accommodative in both the U.S. and in Europe. Indeed, we think that companies may think that this is going to be the most permissive regulatory window for transactions that they might get for some time. Fifth, private equity, which is a big driver of M&A activity, is sitting on over $4 trillion of dry powder in our view – at a time when credit markets look very wide open for financing their transactions. And finally, we're seeing a surge in capital expenditure on Morgan Stanley estimates, which we see as a sign of rising corporate confidence, and importantly an urgency to act – with corporates far less content to simply sit back and repurchase their stock. All of these favorable conditions together argue for activity to push even higher. We forecast global M&A volumes to increase by 32 percent this year, an additional 20 percent next year, and reach $7.8 trillion in volume in 2027. This is a global story with M&A rising across regions, especially in Japan. It has cross-asset implications with M&A already being one of the biggest drivers of bond outperformance within the U.S. high-yield market. And this is also a story where we see a lot of value in bringing together macro and micro perspectives. While we think the top-down conditions look favorable for all the reasons I just mentioned, we also see a very encouraging picture bottom up. We polled a large number of Morgan Stanley sector analyst teams and asked them about M&A conditions in their sector. A large majority of them see more activity. So, where could these more specific implications lie? Well, as you heard on yesterday's episode, Healthcare and Biotech may see an uptick in activity. In the U.S., we also think that Banking and Media stand out. In Europe, Business Services, Metals and Mining, and Telecom seem most ripe for more M&A. Aerospace and Defense is an interesting sector that may see more M&A within multiple regions, including the U.S. and Europe, as companies look for scale. And with smaller companies trading at a valuation discount to their larger peers across the world, Morgan Stanley analysts generally see the strongest case for activity in larger companies acquiring these smaller ones. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our U.S. Biotech and Biopharma analysts Sean Laaman and Terence Flynn discuss the latest developments that could be positioning the healthcare sector for strong outperformance.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Sean Laaman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sean Laaman, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Biotech Analyst. Terence Flynn: And I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Biopharma Analyst. Sean Laaman: Today, we'll discuss how a rally in the healthcare sector is being driven by more favorable macro conditions. It's Tuesday, October 28th at 10am in New York. So, Terence, healthcare has lagged the broader market year-to-date, and valuations have been near historical lows. But recent weeks show strengthening performance. Policy headwinds have been front and center.What's changed in the regulatory environment and how is the biopharma sector adapting to these pricing and tariff dynamics? Terence Flynn: Sean, as you know, with many other sectors, tariffs were initially a focus earlier this year. But a number of companies in our space have subsequently announced significant U.S. manufacturing investments to reshore supply chains. And hence, the market's less focused on tariffs in our space right now. But the other policy dynamic and focus is what's called Most Favored Nation or MFN drug pricing. Now, this is where the President's been focused on aligning U.S. drug prices with those in other developed countries. And recently we've seen several companies announce agreements with the administration along these lines, which importantly has provided investors with more visibility here. And we're watching to see if additional agreements get announced. Sean Laaman: Got it. Another hurdle for Large-cap biopharma is a looming expiration of patents with [$]177 billion exposed by 2030. How is this shaping M&A trends and strategic priorities? Terence Flynn: For sure. I mean, as you know, Sean, patent expiry is our normal part of the life cycle of drug development. Every company goes through this at some point, but this does put the focus on company's internal pipelines to continue to progress while also being able to access external innovation via M&A. Recently we have started to see a pickup in deal activity, which could bode well for performance in SMID-cap biotech. Sean Laaman: At the same time, you believe relative valuations look compelling for Large-cap biopharma. Where are valuations versus where they've been historically? What's driving this and how should investors think about positioning? Terence Flynn: Absolutely. Look, on a price to earnings multiple, the sector's trading at about a 30 percent discount to the S&P 500 right now. Now that's in line with prior periods of policy uncertainty. But as policy visibility improves, we expect the focus will shift back to fundamentals. Now, positioning to me still feels light here, given some of the patent cliff dynamics we just discussed. Now, Sean, with the Fed moving toward rate cuts, how do you see this impacting your sector on the biotech side? Sean Laaman: Well, Terence, particularly in my space, which is Small- and Mid-cap biotech companies, they're typically capital consumers are not capital producers. They're particularly sensitive to the current rate environment.Therefore, they're sensitive to spending on pipeline. They're sensitive to M&A. So, as rates come down, we expect more spending on pipeline and more M&A activity, which is generally positive for the sector. Looking forward, biotech sector is generally the best performing sector on a six-to-12-month timeframe post the first rate cut. Terence Flynn: Great. You've also talked about this SMID to Big thesis on the biotech side. Can you explain what's driving that? Sean Laaman: Sure Terence. There’s three pieces to the SMID to Big thematic. So, we in SMID-cap biotech, we cover 80 to 90 companies. About a third of those are newly, kind of profitable companies. Those companies are turning from being capital consumers to capital producers. We see about $15 billion of cash on balance sheets for 2025, going to north of 130 billion by 2030. That's the first piece. The second piece is due to regulatory uncertainty at the USFDA. We're seeing more attractive valuations amongst clinical stage names. That's the second piece. And third piece relates to your coverage, Terence. I refer back to that [$]177 billion of LOE. So, we expect generally that M&A activity will be quite high amongst our sector. Terence Flynn: And let's not forget about AI, which has implications across the healthcare space. How much is this changing the dynamic in biotech, Sean? Sean Laaman: It is changing, but we're really at the beginning. I think there's three things to think about. The first one is faster trial recruitment. Th

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for stocks after the preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement and ahead of the Fed meeting and big tech earnings.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the remaining hurdles for equities after what appears to be a preliminary trade deal with China.It's Monday, October 27th at 11:30am in New York. So, let’s get after it.Over the past few weeks, trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated once again focused on rare earths and technology transfers with each country playing its strongest card. Over the weekend, it appears that we have at least a preliminary agreement to de-escalate these tensions which means avoiding prohibitively high tariffs that were scheduled to go on at the end of this month.  While we don’t have many details on what has been agreed to, it appears that critical rare earths will continue to ship to the U.S. while technology transfer restrictions by the U.S. to China will ease. Presumably, Fentanyl tariffs of 20 percent on China are likely to be part of any broader agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi, if they end up meeting at the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.Given the sharp sell-off in stocks a few weeks ago on the news of trade tensions re-escalating, it’s not surprising that stocks are rallying sharply this morning on news of a possible deal from last week’s talks.  Our attention now turns to the other big events this week. First, the Federal Reserve is meeting tomorrow and Wednesday to decide its next move on monetary policy. There is a broad consensus view that the Fed will cut another 25 basis points but there are very different views about how they will address its balance sheet run-off known as quantitative tightening, or QT.  Based on my conversations, there is a growing consensus view for the Fed to announce the end of QT but uncertainty around the timing. Our house view is for the Fed to wait until the January meeting to make this official with an end of the program in February. Others believe the Fed could announce something as early as this week.  That dispersion in expectations does create some room for disappointment from markets, especially given the recent increase in funding market spreads. More specifically, the widening in spreads suggests banking reserves may already be too low and restrictive for the pick-up in economic activity and capital spending that requires more liquidity. Second, earnings revision breadth has rolled over sharply the past few weeks. Most of this decline is due to normal seasonality and the fact that revisions breadth had reached unsustainably high levels since bottoming out in April. Therefore, a reset should be expected as we previewed over a month ago. Nevertheless, it needs to stabilize and push higher again for stocks to continue their advance in my view.  Perhaps most importantly for the S&P 500 is the fact that all of the hyperscalers are reporting this week and will likely determine if revision breadth rebounds. It will also be important to see how those stocks react to what is likely to be continued aggressive guidance on AI capex plans. Since April, the hyperscaler stocks have rewarded higher guidance on spending. Should that change, we may see a different tone to how these companies discuss their spending plans.   Bottom line, I remain bullish on my 12 month view for U.S. stocks based on what I believe will be better and broader growth in earnings next year. Nevertheless, the near term window remains a bit cloudy on trade, Fed policy shifts and earnings revisions breadth. Stay patient with new capital deployment and look to take advantage of downdrafts when they arise like a few weeks ago.  Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Our U.S. Software Analyst Sanjit Singh explains how AI is reshaping software development and why the future for the sector may be brighter – and busier – than ever.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Sanjit Singh, the U.S. Software Analyst at Morgan Stanley.Today: how AI is transforming software and what that means for developers.It’s Friday, October 24th, at 10am in New York.There's been a lot of news stories and anecdotal accounts about AI taking over jobs, especially in the software industry. You may have heard of vibe coding, where people can use natural language prompts, guiding AI to build software applications. So yes, AI is creating a world where software writes itself. But at the same time, the demand for human creativity only grows.The introduction of AI coding assistants has dramatically expanded what software can do, fueling a surge in both the volume of code and the complexity of projects. But instead of shrinking the developer workforce, AI is actually supporting continued growth in developer headcount, even as productivity soars.We’re estimating the software development market will grow at a 20 percent compound annual growth rate, reaching $61 billion by 2029. And that’s up from $24 billion in 2024. And in terms of the developer population, [research] firms like IDC expect it to jump from 30 million paid developers in 2024 to 50 million by 2029 – that’s a 10 percent annual growth rate. Even the most conservative estimates, like those from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, see developer jobs growing roughly 2 percent per year through 2033, outpacing overall employment growth.So, what does this mean for people behind the code? AI isn’t replacing developers. It’s redefining them. Routine tasks are increasingly handled by AI agents, and this frees up developers to become curators, reviewers, architects, and most important problem-solvers.The upshot? Companies may need fewer developers for repetitive work, but the overall demand for skilled engineers remains robust. As AI lowers the barrier to entry, the pool of people who can build software applications expands dramatically. But at the same time, the complexity and ambitions of projects rise, keeping experienced developers in high demand.No doubt, AI coding tools are delivering real productivity gains. Some teams are reporting nearly doubling their code capacity and cutting pull request times in half after adopting AI assistants. Test coverage has increased sharply, resulting in 20 percent fewer production incidents for some organizations. But there is a catch with all this AI-generated code. It’s creating significant new bottlenecks downstream.An example of this is code review, which is becoming a major pain point. Many organizations are experiencing pull request fatigue, with developers rubber-stamping changes just to keep up. Some teams now require three reviewers for AI-generated change, compared to just one before. And in terms of automated testing, systems are getting overwhelmed because every change made with AI sets off a complete round of test.Now we estimate productivity gains from AI in software engineering at about 15–20 percent. But in complex projects, the gains are much lower, as the volume of new code often means more bugs and more rework – and hence more human developers.So where do we go from here? In our view, the future isn’t about fully autonomous software development. Instead, large enterprises are likely to favor an integrated approach, where AI agents and human developers work side by side. AI will automate more of the software development lifecycle. And that not only includes coding – which, coding typically accounts for 10-20 percent of the software development effort – but other areas like testing, security, and deployment. But humans will remain in the loop for oversight, design, and decision-making. And as software gets cheaper and faster to build, organizations won’t just do the same work with fewer people – they likely will do more.In short, the need for skilled developers isn’t going away. But it’s definitely evolving. And in the age of AI, it’s not about man versus machine. It’s about man with machine. And so with more software, we see more developers.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets wades into the debate around whether the boom in artificial intelligence investment is a warning sign for credit markets. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today – the debate about whether elevated capital expenditure and AI technology is showing classic warning signs of overbuilding and worries for credit.It's Thursday, October 23rd at 2pm in London.Two things are true. AI related investment will be one of the largest investment cycles of this generation. And there is a long history of major investment cycles causing major headaches to the credit market. From the railroads to electrification, to the internet to shale oil, there are a number of instances where heavy investment created credit weakness, even when the underlying technology was highly successful.So, let's dig into this and why we think this AI CapEx cycle actually has much further to run.First, Morgan Stanley has done a lot of good collaborative in-depth work on where the AI related spend is coming from and what's still in the pipeline. And importantly, most of the spending that we expect is still well ahead of us. It's only really ramping up starting now.Next, we think that AI is seen as the most important technology of the next decade by some of the biggest, most profitable companies on the planet. We think this increases their willingness to invest and stick with those investments, even if there's a lot of uncertainty around what the return on all of this expenditure will ultimately be.Third, unlike some other major recent capital expenditure cycles – be they the internet of the late 1990s or shale oil of the mid 2010s, both of which were challenging for credit – much of the spending that we're seeing today on AI is backed by companies with extremely strong balance sheets and significant additional debt capacity. That just wasn't the case with some of those other prior investment cycles and should help this one run for longer.And finally, if we think about really what went wrong with some of these prior capital expenditure cycles, it's often really about overcapacity. A new technology – be it the railroads or electricity or the internet – comes along and it is transformational.And because it's transformational, you build a lot of it. And then sometimes you build too much; you build ahead of the underlying demand. And that can lower returns on that investment and cause losses.We can understand why large levels of AI capital investment and the history of large investment cycles in the past causes understandable concern. But when tying these dynamics together, it's important to remember why large investment cycles have a checkered history. It's usually not about the technology not working per se, but rather a promising technology being built ahead of demand for it and resulting in excess capacity driving down returns in that investment, and the builders lacking the financial resources to bridge that gap.So far, that's not what we see. Data centers are still seeing strong underlying demand and are often backed by companies with exceptionally good resources. We need to watch if either of these change.But for now, we think the AI CapEx cycle has much further to go.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today

Our analysts Brian Nowak, Keith Weiss and Matt Bombassei break down the most important tech insights from Morgan Stanley’s Spark Private Company Conference and industry shifts that will likely shape 2026 and beyond. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Brian Nowak: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research. I'm joined today by Keith Weiss, Head of U.S. Software Research and Matt Bombassei from my team.Today we're going to talk about private companies and technology – and how they're showing us the direction of travel for disruptive technologies and emerging investment opportunities.It's Wednesday, October 22nd at 10am in New York.Keith and Matt, we just returned from Morgan Stanley's Spark Private Company Conference last week in Los Angeles. It had over 85 private tech companies, 150 plus investor firms. There were a lot of themes that were discussed across the entire tech space impacting a lot of different sectors, including energy, healthcare, financial services, and cybersecurity.Keith, what were some of the biggest takeaways you took away from Spark this year?Keith Weiss: I'd say just to start off with, the Spark Conference is one of my favorite conferences of the year. It's a more intimate conference where you really get to spend time with both the private company executives and founders, as well as investors from the VC community and public company investors. And the conversations are more broad ranging; they're more about the thematics in the industry. They're more long term in nature.So, it's not just a conversation about what's next quarter going to look like, or what data points are you drumming up. You're having these thoughtful conversations about what's going on in the industry and how that's going to impact business models, how it's going to impact innovation cycles, how it's going to impact pricing models, within these companies. So, it tends to be a very interesting conference for me to attend.So, for me, some of the key takeaways. Typically, when we're in these innovation cycles, it feels like everybody's rowing in the same direction. We all understand where the technology's heading, we're all understanding how it's going to be delivered, and it's a race to get there. And you're having a conversation about who's doing best in that race, who's best positioned, who's got a better motor in their race car, if you will.So, to me, one of the big takeaways was we don't have that agreement today, right? There's different players that are looking at this market evolution differently. On one side of the equation, the application vendors – and a lot of this debate is in SaaS based applications. They see SaaS based applications having a very big role in taking these models that are inherently in-determinative and making them to be more determinative and useful within an enterprise context.Bringing them the data that they need to get the job done and the right data; bringing them the context of the business process being solved; bringing the governance that's necessary to use in an enterprise environment. But most importantly, to make it effective and efficient for the large enterprise.On the other side of the equation, you have venture capital investors and more early-stage investors who are looking at this as a huge phase shift, right? This is going to fundamentally change how we build software, how we utilize software, and they worry about a deprecation of that SaaS application layer. They think the model itself is going to start to encompass, it's going to start to subsume a lot more of that application functionality, a lot more of that analytics. And they see a lot more disruption going forward.So that debate within the marketplace, that's something that's interesting to me. It's something that we don't typically see in these innovation cycles. So that's takeaway number one.Takeaway number two, we're still really early days, and that's a little bit implied in in the first statement; I definitely hear a lot of it when I talk to the end customer. When I talk to CIOs. This wasn't necessarily at Spark, but earlier in the week, I was at a CIO conference, there was 150 CIOs in the room. One of the gentlemen on stage asked a question. ‘Who in the room has a good understanding of what we're talking about when we mean Agentic AI, when we mean agentic computing within our enterprise.’ Of the 150 CIOs, four raised their hands. Still very early days in understanding how this is going to evolve, how we're going to actually deliver these capabilities into the enterprise.And the last takeaway I would say is more excitement about the federal government becoming a better customer for software companies overall. People are more interested in new avenues into that federal government. There's been some very successful companies that have opened the door to getting into these federal government contracts without

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.  Today, we’re talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It’s Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you’ve been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it’s complicated. Let’s start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there’s still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what’s going on now?  In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations.  First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it’s clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven’t yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren’t yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn’t help either. It’s all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term.  But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don’t lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April  around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has  to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see  three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buy

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China’s announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recove

With Morgan Stanley’s European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lendin

Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how youth unemployment will impact future growth and stability across China, India, and Indonesia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist. Today – Asia’s young workforce is facing a significant challenge. How a soft labor market will shape everything from consumer demand to social stability and long-term growth. It’s Tuesday, October 14th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. Across Asia, a concerning trend is emerging. The region’s younger generations face mounting challenges in the job market. Asia’s youth unemployment averages 16 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. rate of 10.5 percent. Youth unemployment rates are running two to three times higher than headline unemployment rates. The underlying situation is even weaker than what is represented by [the] unemployment rate. And within Asia, the challenge is most acute in China, India, and Indonesia, the three most populous economies. Youth unemployment rates for these three economies are running close to double, as compared to other economies in Asia. Now let’s take a closer look at China. The urban youth unemployment rate, i.e. for 16–24-year-olds, has steadily increased since 2019. What’s driving this rise in unemployment? A mismatch in labor demand and supply. The number of university graduates surged 40 percent over the last five years to close to 12 million. But economy-wide employment has declined by 20 million over the same period. Entry-level wages are sluggish, and automation plus subdued services growth mean fewer opportunities for newer entrants.  Turning to India, their unemployment rate is the highest in the region at 17.6 percent. Employment creation has been subdued. And on top of it, India also faces another issue: underemployment. Post-COVID, primary sector – i.e. farming and mining – employment rose by 50 million, reaching a 17-year high. Note that these jobs are relatively low productivity jobs. And this is explained by the fact that [the] primary sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP but it employs about 40 percent of the workforce. That’s a sign of COVID-induced underemployment. How fast must growth be to tackle the unemployment challenge? In our base case, India's GDP will grow at an average of 6.5 percent over the coming decade – and this will mean that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies globally. But this pace of growth will not be sufficient to generate enough jobs. To keep [the] unemployment rate stable, India needs an average GDP growth of close to 7.5 percent; and to address underemployment, the required run rate in GDP growth must be even higher at 12 percent. Shifting to Indonesia, its youth unemployment rate is the second highest in the region. Moreover, close to 60 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. And many of these jobs pay below minimum wage. Similar to India, both these trends signal underemployment. The key reason behind this challenge is weak investment growth. Indonesia's investment-to-GDP ratio has dropped meaningfully over the last five years. So, what’s the way forward? For China, shifting towards consumption and services could reduce labor market mismatches. And for India and Indonesia, boosting investment is key. India in particular needs much stronger growth in its industrial and exports sectors. If reforms fall short, policy makers may need to fall back on increasing social welfare spending to manage social stability risks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys discuss what’s driving unprecedented consolidation for asset and wealth management firms.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We're going to unpack today what's driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.It’s Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What's your outlook for the asset management industry?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that's driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you're looking at me a little dazed on what's solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.So that's the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what's your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that's larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically – deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you're talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint.Betsy Graseck: They're looking to consolidate their providers?Michael Cyprys: Correct.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: They're looking to work with fewer asset managers.Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.And also, I'd point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that's going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that b

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----    Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley’s first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----    Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

An extended U.S. government shutdown raises the risk for weaker growth potential. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests key checkpoints that investors should keep in mind.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----   Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: Three checkpoints we’re watching for as the U.S. government shutdown continues. It’s Wednesday, October 8th at 10:30am in New York. The federal government shutdown in the United States has crossed the one week mark. But if you’re watching the markets, you might be surprised at how calm everything seems. Stocks are steady. Bond yields haven’t moved much, and volatility’s low. It’s more or less the scenario my colleague Ariana and I had talked about in anticipation of the impasse in Washington. We’d noted the potential for uncertainty for investors and market reaction depending on how long the shutdown would last. So that raises a big question: what, if anything, about this government shutdown could shake investor confidence and start moving markets? The question is worth considering. Prediction markets now suggest the most likely outcome is that the government shutdown will not end for at least another week. And as we’ve seen in past shutdowns, the longer it drags on, the more likely it is to matter. That’s because risks to the economic outlook start to accumulate, and investors eventually have to start pricing in a weaker growth outlook. There’s a few checkpoints we’re watching for – for when investors might start feeling this way. First, the missed paycheck for furloughed federal workers. The first instance of this comes in a few days. Less pay naturally means less spending. Studies suggest that spending among affected workers can drop by two to four percent during a shutdown. That’s not huge for GDP at first; but it’s a sign the shutdown is having effects beyond Washington, DC. Second, this time might be different because of potential layoffs. The administration has hinted that agencies could move to permanently cut staff — something we haven’t seen before. Unions have already said they’d challenge that in court. But if those actions start, or even if legal uncertainty grows around them, it could raise the economic stakes. Third, we’re watching for real disruptions to economic activity resulting from the shutdown. The last shutdown ended when air traffic in New York was curtailed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers. We’re already seeing substantial air traffic delays across the country. More substantial delays or ground halts obviously impede economic activity related to travel. And if such actions don’t coincide with signals from DC of progress in negotiating a bill to reopen the government, investors’ concern could grow. So here’s the bottom line: markets may be right to stay calm — for now. But the longer this shutdown lasts, the more likely one of these pressure points pushes investors to rethink their optimism. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Our Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains how changes in the yield curve are affecting markets such as insurance, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today – How the shape of the yield curve has affected credit and housing markets, and the risk of changes to the curve and its implications. It’s Tuesday, October 7th at 1pm in New York. The shape of the yield curve plays a pivotal role in financial markets. It influences everything from credit conditions to housing and mortgage dynamics. And you’ve been hearing on this show for some time about more Fed rate cuts coming. Our economists expect 25 basis point rate cuts at the next three meetings – that is October, December and January. And then two more in April and July of next year. What does this mean to the shape of the curve? Our high conviction call has been that investors should position for a steeper yield curve. Why does the curve matter? It’s not just a macro signal. It’s a transmission mechanism that shapes pricing, risk appetite, and sector flows. Take life insurers, for example. A steeper curve has turbocharged demand for fixed annuity products, which in turn drives flows into spread assets like corporate and securitized credit. Insurance demand has become a powerful technical in credit markets. This year’s steepening has been led by falling front-end yields. For example, 2-year Treasuries are down about 60 basis points, significantly outpacing the 40 basis point drop in 10-year yields and just 5 basis point drop in 30-year yields. That front-end move reflects shifting rate expectations and offers relief to highly leveraged issuers who rely on short-term funding. But longer-dated yields remain sticky, keeping all-in borrowing costs elevated. That is good for insurers – and the sale of fixed annuity products – but acts as a brake on overall issuance, helping keep credit spreads tight despite macro uncertainty. That said, not all markets benefit. Mortgage rates, which track longer yields more closely than the fed funds rate, have actually risen 25 to 30 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of 2024. That’s a headwind for affordability. While a steeper curve may support lending and future housing supply, it’s not helping today’s buyers. A flatter curve with lower long-end yields would offer more meaningful relief—but that is clearly not our base case. Bottom line: Rate cuts matter, but the shape of the curve may matter more. A steeper curve is a tailwind for credit but a headwind for housing. And a reminder that not all markets move in sync. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our strategists Daniel Blake and Tim Chan discuss how Asia is adapting to multipolar world dynamics, tech innovation and longevity trends to create new opportunities for global investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----   Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake, Morgan Stanley's Asia Equity and Thematic Strategist. Tim Chan: And I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley Head of Asia Sustainability Research and Thematic Strategist Daniel Blake: Today, how Asia is reshaping its development strategy, corporate governance, and capital markets to lead globally. It's Monday, October 6th at 8am in Singapore. Tim Chan: And it's also 8am in Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: Asia is experiencing a number of dramatic changes that are reshaping industries, even entire economies. Deglobalization, supply chain shifts, frenetic investment in AI and looming disruption from the adoption of the technology, rapid energy transformation, and the transition to super aged populations as longevity drives investment in innovative healthcare and better nutrition are just some of the overarching themes. Asia's transformation is a story every global investor needs to follow and look for opportunities in. Tim Chan: So, what are the overarching themes, when you look at Asia Pacific? For example, what are the key themes that you're seeing in terms of driving the equity return and the market trend that you're seeing? Daniel Blake: We're approaching the Asia thematic opportunity from the framework of a competitive reinvention. It's competitive because this is deeply rooted in the cultural and business norms across much of the region, which has had an export focus through the modernization process in Japan, and more broadly with the emergence of the Asia Tigers. But we're seeing this competition really stepping up another notch. As countries look at how they can take market share in emerging technologies, and also this overarching competition between the U.S. and China, which sits at the heart of the multipolar world theme we've been laying out in recent years. We're also seeing a reinvention of development strategies of corporate governance frameworks and of capital markets to try to better improve the financial supply chain, to see the capital raising the capital allocation process improved and ultimately drive better returns for an aging population. So, Tim, you've been very focused on the corporate governance improvements that were seen in much of the region. Take us through what you think is most compelling and most important for investors to note. Tim Chan: I think governance reforms is a really key thing for Asia Pacific. Take an example in Japan, in the past we have done some correlation analysis between the major governance factors and what are driving the return. What we have found is that, first of all, there is a significant alpha potential from online companies with leading governance metrics and also companies that may improve their governance metrics over time. So, if we look at the independence of board of directors as an example. There is a positive correlation between the total return and also the independence in Japan market. And overall, we are seeing a major government improvement. As Daniel you have mentioned, China, Korea, India, and Singapore, and Japan as well – all these markets together account for over 70 percent of the market cap in MS Asia Pacific in index. So that's why, we think the governance reform is really driving the return of Asia Pacific as a whole. Daniel, after talking about the governance reform and capital market reform, I know multipolar level is also a key theme for Asia Pacific. So, what you are seeing in terms of multipolar level in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the multipolar world theme has come back to the foreground in 2025 as trade tensions have risen, as deal making has been struck or attempted. And we've seen the concept of weaponized interdependence really being proven out in the second quarter of 2025, as China has been in recent years, implementing frameworks for export controls and leverage these quite effectively. So economic security initiatives have come back to the focus for investors. Over recent years, we've seen a number being set up across the region, including Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act, the Self-Reliant India framework, and South Korea's Supply Chain Stabilization Act, as well as Australia's National Reconstruction Fund. So, we see a number of investment opportunities flowing from these reforms. Ultimately the critical mineral and permanent magnet supply chain is very much in focus, but we're also expecting to see semi localization. So, semiconductor localization efforts are continuing to drive investment and activity. Naturally, defense has been a key area of focus for investors

Have you ever wondered -- How much do I really need to retire early and am I on track? How do I balance all of my financial goals? How can I help my children be financially secure? Tune into Season 3 of What Should I Do With My Money, hosted by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Jamie Roô to hear real-life stories about these and other big financial questions.

Our China Healthcare Analyst Jack Lin discusses how China’s biotech surge is reshaping healthcare, investment and innovation worldwide.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Jack Lin: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jack Lin, from Morgan Stanley's China Healthcare Team. Today, the boom in China biotech – and how it's not just a headline for China-focused investors, but a story that touches all of us. It is Friday, October 3rd at 2pm in Hong Kong. Many people might not realize this but some of the next generation healthcare innovation is being developed far from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The medicines you rely on, treatment plans that could shape your family's future, even investment opportunity that can grow your savings. They are all increasingly influenced by China's rapidly evolving biotech sector, which is transitioning from traditional generics manufacturing into the global innovation ecosystem. In fact, China's biotech industry is set to become a major player in the global innovation ecosystem. By 2040, we project China's originated assets could represent about a third of U.S. FDA approvals – up dramatically from just 5 percent today. And the question isn't if China's biotech will matter, but how global patients could benefit; and how consumers and investors worldwide might engage with its impact.What's driving this transformation? Three key components are driving the globalization of China originated drug innovations: cost, accessibility, and innovation quality. Lower cost in China's biotech sector enables more efficient development. Clinical trial quality is improving with regulatory pathways becoming more streamlined, promoting accessibility of China innovation for global markets. Finally, innovation in China's biotech sector is gaining momentum with more regionally developed medicines now eyeing market approval from leading overseas agencies like the U.S. FDA and EMA.This is all to say China is on track to become a key force on the global biotech stage. That said, right now we're also at a crossroads moment as geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China pose potential risks to the flow of innovation. Despite these uncertainties, we see a likely outcome of co-opetition, a blend of competition and collaboration, as global pharma grapples with the dual imperatives of innovation and resilience. Of course, this rapid evolution brings both opportunities and challenges. It's prompting stakeholders around the world to rethink their strategies and collaborations in this shifting landscape of global medical innovation. As the China biotech industry evolves, the choices made by investors, policy makers, and healthcare communities, both within China and globally, will determine the therapies of the future. It is truly a dynamic space, and we'll continue to bring you updates. Thanks for listening to our thoughts on the market. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review, wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleagues today.

Our Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discusses how China’s new approach to economic development is transforming domestic industries and reshaping the global investment landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Equity Strategist.Today – a consequential shift in China's economic policy is set to reshape domestic markets and send ripples across the global economy.It’s Thursday, October 2nd at 2pm in Hong Kong.If you’re an investor, it’s important to understand China’s new approach to economic development. The government's policies to drive a recovery from an economic slump are changing the rules of competition, profitability and growth. This affects Chinese companies, and in turn global supply chains and investment flows.Let’s start with the term involution – what is it? In China, involution describes a cycle of excessive competition—think companies fighting for market share by slashing prices, ramping up production, and eroding profits, often to the point where nobody wins. The government’s anti-involution campaign is a direct response to this problem.What factors prompted the launch of this anti-involution initiative? Since 2021, China has faced mounting deflationary pressures—falling prices, a housing market slump, and a surge in manufacturing investment that led to overcapacity. The September 2024 policy pivot began to address these issues, and in mid-2025 the government launched a more targeted anti-involution campaign. This phase focuses on reducing excessive competition and restoring pricing power through market-based consolidation.As we assess the potential effectiveness of China’s anti-involution policy, our base case projects China’s return on equity (ROE) to reach 13.3 percent by 2030, up from a cycle low of 10 percent in May 2024 and 11.6 percent by July 2025. In a bullish scenario, decisive reforms and demand-side stimulus could push ROE as high as 16.3 percent.We also expect earnings growth to accelerate, with our base case showing an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent in 2025, rising to 11.1 percent by 2027. We forecast valuations to normalize towards 12–13x forward price-to-earnings, in line with emerging market peers, but this could re-rate higher if reforms succeed.In terms of investment opportunities, we believe the EV Batteries industry will benefit the most from the Chinese government’s anti-involution efforts. It’s got strong policy support, cutting-edge technology, and a market that’s consolidating fast—meaning the days of low-quality and excess capacity are fading. We’re seeing a shift toward long-term, sustainable growth. Steel and Cement are industries where the state has a strong hand and capacity controls are well established. These factors help stabilize the market and open the door for steady gains. Finally, Airlines. While the industry has faced persistent losses, there isn’t a[n] oversupply of seats, and regulatory coordination is strong. With the right reforms, Airlines could be poised for a significant turnaround.The sectors best positioned to benefit from China’s anti-involution strategy are more domestically oriented. But this policy is bound to have global implications. And the ripples will likely extend to global supply chains, especially in Materials, Chemicals and Autos.Looking ahead, the pace and success of anti-involution will depend on further structural reforms, demand-side support, and the ability to digest industrial credit risks gradually. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could bring more clarity on tax, social welfare, and local government incentives.So, what should investors be paying attention to? China’s anti-involution campaign is more than a policy tweak—it’s a recalibration of how the country balances growth, innovation, and sustainability. The key is to track sector-level reforms, watch for signs of consolidation, and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and policy tailwinds.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed’s response. They also discuss India’s path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and

Morgan Stanley’s chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the refla

Despite large deficits, booming capital expenditures and a looser regulatory environment, the Fed appears poised to cut rates further to support the slowing labor market. This could set the stage for a level of corporate risk-taking not seen since the 1990s.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the forces that could heat up corporate activity in 2026 – if the labor market can hold up.It's Monday, September 29th at 2pm in London.Bill Martin, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve in the 50’s and 60’s, famously joked that “it was the Fed's job to take away the punch bowl just when the party is getting good.” That quote seems relevant because a host of trends are pointing to a pretty lively scene over the next 12 months. First, the U.S. government is spending significantly more than it's taking in. This deficit running at about 6.5 percent of the size of the whole economy is providing stimulus. It's only been larger during the great financial crisis, COVID and World War II. It's punch. Next to the corporate sector. As you've heard us discuss on this podcast, we here at Morgan Stanley think that AI related spending could amount to one of the largest waves of investment ever recorded – dwarfing the shale boom of the 2010s and the telecommunication spending of the late 1990s. Importantly, we think this spending is ramping up right now. Morgan Stanley estimates that investments by large tech companies will increase by 70 percent this year, and between 2024 and 2027, we think this spending is going to go up by two and a half times. Note that this doesn't even account for the enormous amount of power and electricity infrastructure that's going to be need to be built to support all this. Hence more economic punch. Finally, there's a deregulatory push. My bank research colleagues believe that lower capital requirements for U.S. banks could boost their balance sheet capacity by an additional $1 trillion in risk weighted terms. And a more supportive regulatory environment for mergers should help activity there continue to grow. Again, more punch.Heavy government spending, heavy corporate spending, more bank lending and risk taking capacity. And what's next from the Federal Reserve? Well, they're not exactly taking the punch away. We think that the Fed is set to cut rates five more times to a midpoint of two and 7/8ths. The Fed's supportive efforts are based on a real fear that labor markets are already starting to slow, despite the other supportive factors mentioned previously. And a broad weakening of the economy would absolutely warrant such support from the Fed. But if growth doesn't slow – large deficits, booming capital expenditure, a looser regulatory environment, and now Fed rate cuts – would all support even more corporate risk taking possibly in a way that we haven't seen since the 1990s. For credit, that boom would be preferable to a sharp slowing of the economy, but it comes with its own risks.Expect talk of this scenario next year to grow if economic data does hold up.Thanks as always for listening. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpack the market and economic implications of a looming government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Michael Zezas: Today, our focus is once again on Washington – as the U.S. government fiscal year draws to a close and a potential government shutdown hangs in the balance.It's Friday, September 26th at noon in New York. Ariana we're just four days away from the end of the month. By October 1st, Congress needs to have a funding agreement in place, or we risk a potential shutdown. To that point, Democrats and Republicans seem far apart on the deal to avoid a shutdown. What's the state of play? Ariana Salvatore: Right now, Republicans are pushing for what's called a clean continuing resolution. That's a bill that would keep funding levels flat while putting more time on the clock for negotiators to hammer out full fiscal year appropriations. And the CR they're proposing lasts until November 21st. Democrats, conversely, are seeking to tie government funding to legislative compromise in other areas, including the enhanced Obamacare or ACA subsidies, and potential spending cuts to Medicaid from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Republicans signed earlier this year. Remember, even though Republicans hold a majority in both chambers, this has to be a bipartisan agreement because of exactly how thin those margins of control are. But Mike, it seems as we get closer, investors are asking more infrequently whether or not a shutdown is happening – and are more interested in how long it could potentially last. What are we thinking there? Michael Zezas: So, it's hard to know. Shutdowns typically last a few days, but sometimes there are short as a few hours, sometimes as long as a few weeks. Historically, shutdowns tend to end when the economic risk, and therefore the attached political risk gets real. So, consider the 35-day shutdown under President Trump in this first term. The compromise that ended it came quickly after there was an air traffic stoppage at New York's LaGuardia Airport – when 10 air traffic controllers who weren't being paid failed to show up for work. So, we think the more relevant question for investors is what it all means for economic activity. Our economists have historically argued that a government shutdown takes something like 0.1 percent off of GDP every single week it's happening. However, once employees go back to work, a lot of times that effect fades pretty quickly. Now it's important to understand that this time around there could be a wrinkle. The Trump administration is talking about laying employees off on a durable basis during the shutdown. And that's something that maybe would have more of a lasting economic impact. It's hard to know how credible that potential is. There would almost certainly be court challenges, but it's something we have to keep our eye on that could create a more meaningful economic consequence. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And there are also some really important indirect macroeconomic effects here. Like delayed data releases. Much of the federal workforce, to your point, will not be working through a shutdown – which could impede the collection and the release of some key data points that matter for markets like labor and inflation data, which come from BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, assuming we're in this scenario with a longer-term shutdown. Obviously, we're going to see an increase in uncertainty, especially as investors are looking toward each data print for guidance on what the Fed's next move might be. What do we expect the market reaction to all of this to be? Michael Zezas: Well, the obvious risk here is that markets might have to price in some weaker growth potential. So, you could see treasury yields fall. You could see equity markets wobble; be a bit more volatile. It could be that those effects are temporary, though. And that volatility could easily be amplified by having to price risk in the market without the data you were talking about, Ariana. So, investors could overreact to anecdotal signals about the economy or underweight some real risks that they're not seeing. So, that's why even a short shutdown can have outsized market effects. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you get this podcast and tell your friends about it. We

Our Co-Head of Securitized Products Research James Egan joins our Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner to discuss the recent challenges facing the U.S. housing market, and the path forward for home buyers and investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Research for Morgan Stanley. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. James Egan: And today we dive into a topic that touches nearly every American household, quite literally. The future of the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, September 25th at 10am in New York. So, Ellen, this conversation couldn't be timelier. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and our chief U.S. Economist, Mike Gapen expects three more consecutive 25 basis point cuts through January of next year. And that's going to be followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in April and July. But mortgage rates, they're not tied to fed funds. So even if we do get 6.25 bps cuts by the end of 2026, that in and of itself we don't think is going to be sufficient to bring down mortgage rates, though other factors could get us there.Taking all that into account, the U.S. housing market appears to be a little stuck. The big question on investors' minds is – what's next for housing and what does that mean for the broader economy? Ellen Zentner: Well, I don't like the word stuck. There's no churn in the housing market. We want to see things moving and shaking. We want to see sellers out there. We want to see buyers out there. And we've got a lot of buyers – or would be buyers, right? But not a lot of sellers.  And, you know, the economy does well when things are moving and shaking because there's a lot of home related spending that goes on when we're selling and buying homes. And so that helps boost consumer spending. Housing is also a really interest rate sensitive sector, so you know, I like to say as goes housing, so goes the business cycle. And so, you don't want to think that housing is sort of on the downhill slide or  heading toward a downturn [be]cause it would mean that the entire economy is headed toward a downturn. So, we want to see housing improve here. We want to see it thaw out. I don't like, again, the word stuck, you know. I want to see some more churn. James Egan: As do we, and one of the reasons that I wanted to talk to you today is that you are observing all of these pressures on the U.S. housing market from your perspective in wealth management. And that means your job is to advise retail clients who sometimes can have a longer investment time horizon. So, Ellen, when you look at the next decade, how do you estimate the need for new housing units in the United States and what happens if we fall short of these estimated targets? Ellen Zentner: Yeah, so we always like to say demographics makes the world go round and especially it makes the housing market go round. And we know that if you just look at demographic drivers in the U.S. Of those young millennials and Gen Z that are aging into their first time home buying years – whether they're able to immediately or at some point purchase a home – they will want to buy homes. And if they can't afford the homes, then they will want to maybe rent those single-family homes. But either way, if you're just looking at the sheer need for housing in any way, shape, or form that it comes, we're going to need about 18 million units to meet all of that demand through 2030. And so, when I'm talking with our clients on the wealth management side, it's – Okay, short term here or over the next couple of years, there is a housing cycle. And affordability is creating pressures there. But if we look out beyond that, there are opportunities because of the demographic drivers – single family rentals, multi-family. We think modular housing can be something big here, as well. All of those solutions that can help everyone get into a home that wants to be. James Egan: Now, you hit on something there that I think is really important, kind of the implications of affordability challenges. One of the things that we've been seeing is it's been driving a shift toward rentership over ownership. How does that specific trend affect economic multipliers and long-term wealth creation? Ellen Zentner: In terms of whether you're going to buy a single-family home or you're going to rent a single-family home, it tends to be more square footage and there's more spending that goes on with it. But, of course, then relatively speaking, if you're buying that single family home versus renting, you're also going to probably spend a lot more time and

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, Michael Zezas, examines growth in IPOs and M&A amid greater certainty around trade, immigration and regulation.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, let’s talk about how changes in U.S. policy are shaping the markets in 2025—and why we’re seeing a pickup in capital markets activity. It’s Wednesday, September 24th at 10:30am in New York. At the start of this year, one thing investors agreed on was that with President Trump back in office, U.S. policy would shift in big ways. But there was less agreement about what those changes would mean for the economy and markets. Our team built a framework to help investors track changes in trade, fiscal, immigration, and regulatory policy – focusing on the sequencing and severity of these choices. That lens remains useful. But now, 250 days into the administration, we think it’s more valuable to look at the impacts of those shifts, the durable policy signals, and how markets are pricing it all. Let’s start with policy uncertainty. It is still high, but it’s come down from the peaks we saw earlier this year. For example, the White House has made deals with key trading partners, which means tariff escalation is on pause for now. Of course, things could change if those partners don’t meet their commitments, but any fallout may take a while to show up. Even if courts challenge new tariffs, the administration has ways to bring them back. And with Congress divided, most big policy moves are coming from the executive branch, not lawmakers. With policy changes slowing down, it’s worth reflecting on a new durable consensus in Washington. For years, both parties mostly agreed on lowering trade barriers and keeping the government out of private business. But it seems that’s changed. Industrial policy—where the government takes a more active role in shaping industries—is now a key part of U.S. strategy. Tariffs that started under Trump stayed under Biden, and even current critics focus more on how tariffs are applied than whether they should exist at all. You see this shift in areas like healthcare, energy, and especially technology. Take semiconductors. The CHIPS act under Biden aimed to build a secure domestic supply chain while Trump's approach includes licensing fees on exports to China and considering more government stakes in companies.So, why is capital markets activity picking up then? There are several drivers. First, less uncertainty about policy means companies feel more confident making big decisions. Earlier this year, activity like IPOs and mergers was unusually low compared to the size of the economy. But corporate balance sheets are strong—companies have plenty of cash, and private investors are looking to put money to work. Add in new needs for investment driven by artificial intelligence and technology upgrades, and you get a recipe for more deals. Our corporate clients have told us that having a smaller range of possible policy outcomes helped them move forward with strategic plans. Now, we’re seeing the results: IPOs are up 68 percent year-on-year, and M&A is up 35 percent. Those numbers are coming off low levels, so the pace may slow, but we expect growth to continue for a while. This all syncs up with other trends in the market. For example, we continue to see steeper yield curves and a weaker dollar. Why? Well, trade policy is likely to stay restrictive. The fiscal policy trajectory appears locked in as the President and Congress have already made the fiscal choices that they prefer. And the Federal Reserve appears willing to tolerate more inflation risk in order to support growth. That means the dollar could keep falling and longer maturity bond yields could be sticky, even as shorter maturity yields decline to reflect the more dovish Fed. As always, it's important to watch how these trends interact with the broader economy, and that will be important to how we start deliberating on our outlook for 2026. We'll keep analyzing and share more with you as we go. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Our Head of India Research Ridham Desai and leaders from Morgan Stanley Investment Management Arjun Saigal and Jitania Kandhari discuss how India’s promising macroeconomic trajectory and robust capital markets are attracting more interest from global investors.  Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ridham Desai: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley’s Head of India Equity Research and Chief India Equity Strategist. Today, the once in a generation investment opportunities Morgan Stanley sees in India. Joining me in the studio, Arjun Saigal, Co-Head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management at India Private Equity, and Jitania Khandari, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Head of Macros and Thematic Research for EM Public Equity. It’s Tuesday, September 23rd at 4pm in Mumbai. Jitania Kandhari: And 6:30am in New York. Ridham Desai: Right now, India is already the world's fourth largest economy, and we believe it's on track to becoming the third largest by the end of this decade. If you've been following our coverage, you know, Morgan Stanley has been optimistic about India's future for quite some time. It's really a perfect storm – in a good way. India has got a growing young workforce, steady inflation, and is benefiting from some big shifts in the global landscape. When you put all of that together, you get a country that's set up for long-term growth. Of course, India is also facing pressure from escalating tariffs with the U.S., which makes this conversation even more timely. Jitania, Arjun, what are the biggest public and private investment opportunities in India that you'd highlight. Jitania Kandhari: I'd say in public equities there are five broad thematic opportunities in India. Financialization of savings and structurally lower credit costs; consumption with an aspirational consumer and a growing middle-class; localization and supply chain benefits as a China +1 destination; digitization with the India stack that is helping to revolutionize digital services across industries; and CapEx revivals in real estate and industrials, especially defense and electrification. Arjun Saigal: I will just break down the private markets into three segments. The first being the venture capital segment. Here, it's generally been a bit of hit or miss; some great success stories, but there've also been a lot of challenges with scale and liquidity. Coming to the large cap segment, this is the hundred million dollars plus ticket size, which attracts the large U.S. buyout funds and sovereign wealth funds. Here target companies tend to be market leaders with scale, deep management strength, and can be pretty easily IPO-ed. And we have seen a host of successful PE-backed IPOs in the space. However, it has become extremely crowded given the number of new entrants into the space and the fact that regional Asia funds are allocating more of their dollars towards India as they shift away from China. The third space, which is the mid-market segment, the $50- to $100 million ticket size is where we believe lies the best risk reward. Here you're able to find mid-size assets that are profitable and have achieved market leadership in a region or product. These companies have obvious growth drivers, so it's pretty clear that your capital's able to help accelerate a company's growth path. In addition, the sourcing for these deals tends to be less process driven, creating the ability to have extended engagement periods, and not having to compete only on price. In general, it's not overly competitive, especially when it comes to control transactions. Overall, valuations are more reasonable versus the public markets and the large cap segment. There are multiple exit routes available through IPO or sale to large cap funds. We're obviously a bit biased given our mid-market strategy, but this is where we feel you find the best risk reward. Ridham Desai: Jitania, how do these India specific opportunities compare to other Emerging Markets and the developed world? Jitania Kandhari: I will answer this question from two perspectives. The macro and the markets. From a macro perspective, India, as you said, has better demographics, low GDP per capita with catchup potential, low external vulnerability, and relatively better fiscal dynamics than many other parts of the world.It is a domestic driven story with a domestic liquidity cycle to support that growth story. India has less export dependency compared to many other parts of the emerging and developed world, and is a net oil importer, which has been under pressure actually positively impacting commodity importers. Reforms beginning in 2017 from demonetization, GST, RERA and other measures to formalize the economy is another big difference. From a market standpoint, it is a sectorally diversified m

Our CIO Mike Wilson joins U.S. Equity strategist Andrew Pauker to answer frequently asked questions about their latest economic outlook, including how U.S. equities are transitioning to a new bull market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today we're going to try something a little different. I have my colleague, Andrew Pauker from the U.S. Equity Strategy Team here to discuss some of the client questions and feedback to our views. It's Monday, September 22nd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Andrew, we constantly deal with client questions on our views. More recently, the questions have been focused on our view that we've transitioned from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery in a new bull market. Secondarily, it's about the tension between the equity market's need for speed and how fast the Fed will actually cut rates. Finally, why is accelerating inflation potentially good for equities? Where do you want to start? Andrew Pauker: Mike, in my conversations with clients, the main debate seems to be around whether the labor cycle and earnings recession are behind us or in front of us. Walk us through our take here and why we think the rolling recession ended with Liberation Day and that we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. Mike Wilson:  So, just to kind of level set, you know, we've had this view that – and starting in 2022 with the payback and the COVID demand. And from the pull forward – that began, what we call, a rolling recession. It started with the technology sector and consumer goods, where the demand was most extreme during the lockdowns. And then of course we've had recessions in housing, manufacturing, and other areas in commodities. Transportation. It's been very anemic growth, if any growth at all, as the economy has been sort of languishing. And what's been strong has been AI CapEx, consumer services, and government. And what we noticed in the first quarter, and we actually called for this almost a year ago. We said now what we need is a government recession as part of the finishing move. And in fact, Doge was the catalyst for that. We highlighted that back in January, but we didn't know exactly how many jobs were lost from Doge's efforts in the first quarter. But we got that data recently. And we  saw  an extreme spike, and it actually sort of finished the rolling recession.  Even AI CapEx had a deceleration starting in the summer of 2024. Something else that we've been highlighting and now we're seeing pockets of weakness even in consumer services. So, we feel like the rolling recession has rolled through effectively the entire economy. In addition to the labor data that now is confirming – that we've had a pretty extreme reduction in jobs, and of course the revisions are furthering that. But what we saw in the private sector is also confirming our suspicions that the rolling recession’s over. The number one being earnings revision breath, something we've written about extensively. And we've rarely seen this kind of a V-shaped recovery coming out of Liberation Day, which of course was the final blow to the earnings revisions lower because that made companies very negative and that fed through to earnings revisions. The other things that have happened, of course, is that Doge, you know, did not continue laying people off. And also, we saw the weaker dollar and the AI CapEx cycle bottom in April. And those have also affected kind of a more positive backdrop for earnings growth. And like I said before, this is a very rare occurrence to see this kind of a V-shape recovery and earnings revision breaths. The private economy, in fact, is finally coming out of its earnings recession, which has been in now for three years. Andrew Pauker: And I would just add a couple of other variables as well in terms of evidence that we're seeing the rolling recovery take hold, and that Liberation Day was kind of the punctuation or the culmination of the rolling recession, and we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. So, number one, positive operating leverage is causing our earnings models to inflect sharply higher here. Median stock EPS growth, which had been negative for a lot of the 2022 to 2024 period is now actually turning positive. It's currently positive 6 percent now. The rolling correlation between equity returns and inflation break evens is also now significantly positive. That's classic early cycle. That's something we saw, you know, post COVID, post GFC And then lastly, just in terms of the market internals and kind of what, you know, under the surface, the equity market is telling us. So, the cyclical defensive ratio was down about 50 percent into the April lows. T

With this week’s announcement of a rate cut and further cuts in the offing, the Fed seems willing to let the U.S. economy run a little hot. Our Head of Corporate Credit Andrew Sheets explains why this could give an unexpected boost to the European bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – a Fed that looks willing to let the economy run hot, and why this could help the case for credit overseas. It's Friday, September 19th at 2pm in London. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve lowered its target rate by a quarter of a percent, and signaled more cuts are on the way. Yet as my colleagues Michael Gapen and Matt Hornbach discussed on this program yesterday, this story is far from straightforward. The Fed is lowering interest rates to support the economy despite currently low unemployment and elevated inflation. The justification for this in the Fed's view is a risk that the job market may be set to weaken going forward. And so, it's better to err on the side of providing more support now; even if that support raises the chances that inflation could stay somewhat higher for somewhat longer. Indeed, the Fed's own economic projections bear out this willingness to err on the side of letting the economy run a bit hot. Relative to where they were previously, the Fed's latest assessment sees future economic growth higher, inflation higher, and unemployment lower. And yet, in spite of all this, they also see themselves lowering interest rates faster. If the labor market is really set to weaken – and soon – the Fed's shift to provide more near-term support is going to be more than justified. But if growth holds up, well, just think of the backdrop. At present, we have bank loan growth accelerating, inflation that's elevated, government borrowing that's large, stock valuations near 30-year highs, and credit spreads near 30-year lows. And now the Fed's going to lower interest rates in quick succession? That seems like a recipe for things to heat up pretty quickly. It's also notable that the Fed's strategy is not necessarily shared by its cross-Atlantic peers. Both the United Kingdom and the Euro area also face slowing labor markets and above target inflation. But their central banks are proceeding a lot more cautiously and are keeping rates on hold, at least for the time being. A Fed that's more tolerant of inflation is bad for the U.S. dollar in our view, and my colleagues expect it to weaken substantially against the euro, the pound, and the yen over the next 12 months. And for credit, an asset that likes moderation, a U.S. economy increasingly poised between scenarios that look either too hot or too cold is problematic. So, just maybe we can put the two together. What if a U.S. investor simply buys a European bond? The European market would seem less inclined to these greater risks of conditions being too hot or too cold. It gives exposure to currencies backed by central banks that are proceeding more cautiously when faced with inflation. With roughly 3 percent yields on European investment grade bonds, and Morgan Stanley's forecast that the euro will rise about 7 percent versus the dollar over the next year, this seemingly sleeping market has a chance to produce dollar equivalent returns of close to 10 percent. For U.S. investors, just make sure to keep the currency exposure unhedged. Thank you as always for listening. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its first rate cut in nine months. While the reduction was widely expected, our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen explain the data that markets and the Fed are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Our topic today is the Fed's first quarter percent rate cut in 2025. We're here to discuss the implications and the path forward. It's Thursday, September 18th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, the Fed concluded its meeting on Wednesday. What was the high-level takeaway from your perspective?Michael Gapen: So, I think there's two main points here. There's certainly more that we can discuss, but two main takeaways for me are obviously the Fed is moving because it sees downside risk in the labor market.So, the August employment data revealed that the hiring rate took a large step down and stayed down, right. And the Fed is saying – it's a curious balance in the labor market. We're not quite sure how to assess it, but when employment growth slows this much, we think we need to take notice.So, they're adjusting their view. We'll call it risk management 'cause that's what Powell said. And saying there's more risk of worse outcomes in the labor market, keeping a restricted policy stance is inappropriate, we should cut. So that's part one. I think he previewed all of that in Jackson Hole. So, it was largely the same, but it's important to know why the Fed's cutting. The second thing that was interesting to me is as much as he, Powell in this case, tried to avoid the idea that we're on a preset path. That, you know, policy is always data dependent and it's always the meeting-to-meeting decision – we know that. But it does feel like if you're recalibrating your policy stance because you see more downside risk to the labor market, they're not prepared to just do once and go, ‘Well, maybe; maybe we'll go again; maybe we won't.’ The dot plots clearly indicate a series of moves here. And when pressed on, well, what's a 25 basis point rate cut going to do to help the labor market, Powell responded by, well, nothing. 25 basis points won't really affect the macro outcome, but it's the path that that matters. So, I do think; and I use the word recalibration; Powell didn't want to use that. I do think we're in for a series of cuts here. The median dot would say three, but maybe two; two to three, 75 basis points by year end. And then we'll see how the world evolves. Matthew Hornbach: So, speaking of the summary of economic projections, what struck you as being interesting about the set of projections that we got on Wednesday? And how does the Fed's idea of the path into 2026 differ from yours?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, it was a lot about downside risk to the labor market. But what did they do? They revised up growth. They have the unemployment rate path lower in the outer years of their forecast than they did before, so they didn't revise down this year. But they revised down subsequent years, and they revised inflation higher in 2026. That may seem at odds with what they're doing with the policy rate currently.But my interpretation of that is, you know, the main point to your question is – they're more tolerant of inflation as the cost or the byproduct of needing to lower rates to support the labor market. So, if this all works, the outlook is a little stronger from the Fed's perspective. And so, what's key to me is that they are… You know, the median of the forecast, to the extent that they align in a coherent message, are saying, we're going to have to pay a price for this in the form of stronger inflation next year to support the labor market this year. So that means in their forecast – cuts this year, but fewer cuts in 2026 and [20]27. And how that differs from our forecast is we're not quite as optimistic on the Fed, as the Fed is on the economy. We do think the labor market weakens a little bit further into 2026. So, you get four consecutive rate cuts upfront, again, inclusive of the one we got on Wednesday. And then you get two additional cuts by the middle of 2026. So, we're not quite as optimistic. We think the labor market's a little softer. And we think the Fed will have to get closer to neutral, right? Powell said we're moving “in the direction of neutral.” So, he's not committing to go all the way to neutral. And we're just saying we think the Fed ultimately will have to do that, although they're not prepared to communicate that now.Matthew Hornbach: One of the things that struck me as interesting about the summary of economic projections was the unemployment rate projection for the end of this year. So, the way that the Fed delivers these projections is they give you a number on the unemp

Original Release Date: August 21, 2025From China’s rapid electric vehicle adoption to the rise of robotaxis, humanoids, and flying vehicles, our analysts Adam Jonas and Tim Hsiao discuss how AI is revolutionizing the global auto industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas. I lead Morgan Stanley's Research Department's efforts on embodied AI and humanoid robots. Tim Hsiao: And I'm Tim Hsiao, Greater China Auto Analyst. Adam Jonas: Today – how the global auto industry is evolving from horsepower to brainpower with the help of AI. It's Thursday, August 21st at 9am in New York. Tim Hsiao: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Adam Jonas: From Detroit to Stuttgart to Shanghai, automakers are making big investments in AI. In fact, AI is the engine behind what we think will be a $200 billion self-driving vehicle market by 2030. Tim, you believe that nearly 30 percent of vehicles sold globally by 2030 will be equipped with Level 2+ smart driving features that can control steering, acceleration, braking, and even some hands-off driving. We expect China to account for 60 percent of these vehicles by 2030. What's driving this rapid adoption in China and how does it compare to the rest of the world? Tim Hsiao: China has the largest EV market globally, and the country’s EV sales are not only making up over 50 percent of the new car sales locally in China but also accounting for over 50 percent of the global EV sales. As a result, the market is experiencing intense competition. And the car makers are keen to differentiate with the technological innovation, to which smart driving serve[s] as the most effective means. This together with the AI breakthrough enables China to aggressively roll out Level 2+ urban navigation on autopilot. In the meantime, Chinese government support, and cost competitive supply chains also helps. So, we are looking for China's the adoption of Level 2+ smart driving on passenger vehicle to reach 25 percent by end of this year, and 60 percent by 2030 versus 6 percent and 17 percent for the rest of the world during the same period. Adam Jonas: How is China balancing an aggressive rollout with safety and compliance, especially as it moves towards even greater vehicle automation going forward? Tim Hsiao: Right. That's a great and a relevant question because over the years, China has made significant strides in developing a comprehensive regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles. For example, China was already implementing its strategies for innovation and the development of autonomous vehicles in 2022 and had proved several auto OEM to roll out Level 3 pilot programs in 2023. Although China has been implementing stricter requirements since early this year; for example, banning terms like autonomous driving in advertisement and requiring stricter testing, we still believe more detailed industry standard and regulatory measures will facilitate development and adoption of Level 2+ Smart driving. And this is important to prevent, you know, the bad money from driving out goods. Adam Jonas: One way people might encounter this technology is through robotaxis. Now, robotaxis are gaining traction in China's major cities, as you've been reporting. What's the outlook for Level 4 adoption and how would this reshape urban mobility? Tim Hsiao: The size of Level 4+ robotaxi fleet stays small at the moment in China, with less than 1 percent penetration rate. But we've started seeing accelerating roll out of robotaxi operation in major cities since early this year. So, by 2030, we are looking for Level 4+ robotaxis to account for 8 percent of China's total taxi and ride sharing fleet size by 2030. So, this adoption is facilitated by robust regulatory frameworks, including designated test zones and the clear safety guidance. We believe the proliferation of a Level 4 robotaxi will eventually reshape the urban mobility by meaningfully reducing transportation costs, alleviating traffic congestion through optimized routing and potentially reducing accidents. So, Adam, that's the outlook for China. But looking at the global trends beyond China, what are the biggest global revenue opportunities in your view? Is that going to be hardware, software, or something else? Adam Jonas: We are entering a new scientific era where the AI world, the software world is coming into far greater mental contact, and physical contact, with the hardware world and the physical world of manufacturing. And it's being driven by corporate rivalry amongst not just the terra cap, you know, super large cap companies, but also between public and private companies and competition. And then it's being also fueled by geopolitical rivalry and social issues as well, on a global scale. So, we're actually creating an entirely new sp

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst.Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference.So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle.Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum.And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front?Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth.Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable.And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline g

For investors looking to make sense of housing-related assets amidst changes in Fed policy stance, our co-heads of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow and James Egan offer their perspective on mortgage rates and the market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----  James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Jay Bacow: I'm Jay Bacow, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.Today we're talking about the Fed, mortgage rates and the implications to the housing market.It's Monday, September 15th at 11:30am in New York.Now Jim, the Fed is meeting on Wednesday, and both our economists and the market are expecting them to cut rates in this meeting – and continue to cut rates at least probably two more times in 2025, and multiple times in 2026. We've talked a lot about the challenges and the affordability in the U.S. homeowners’ market, in the U.S. mortgage market.Before we get into what this could help [with] the affordability challenges, how bad is that affordability right now?James Egan: Sure. And as we've discussed on this podcast in the past, one of the biggest issues with the affordability challenges in the U.S. housing market specifically is how it's fed through to supply issues as the lock-in effect has kept homeowners with low 30-year mortgage rates from listing their homes.But just how locked in does the market remain today? The effective rate on the outstanding mortgage market, kind of the average of the mortgages outstanding, is below 4.25 percent. The prevailing rate for 30-year mortgages today is still over 6.25 percent, so we're talking about two full percentage points, 200 basis points outta the money.Jay Bacow: And that seems like a lot. Has it been that way in the past?James Egan: If we look at roughly 40 years of data ending in 2022, the market was only 100 basis points outta the money for eight individual quarters. The most it was ever out of the money was 135 basis points. We have now been more than 200 basis points out of the the money for three entire years, 12 consecutive quarters. So, this is very unprecedented in the past several decades.But Jay, our economists are calling for Fed cuts, the market's pricing in Fed cuts. How much lower is the mortgage rate going for these affordability equations?Jay Bacow: We actually don't think that the Fed cutting rates necessarily is going to cause the mortgage rate to come down at all. And one way we can think about this is if we look at it, the Fed has already cut rates 100 basis points over the past year, and since the Fed has cut rates 100 basis points in the past year, the mortgage rate is 25 basis points higher.James Egan: Okay, so if I'm not going to be looking at Fed funds for the path of mortgage rates going forward, I have two questions for you.One, what part of the Treasury term structure should I be looking at? And two, you talked about the market pricing in Fed cuts from here. What is the market saying about where those rates will be in the future?Jay Bacow: So, mortgage rates are much more sensitive to the belly of the Treasury curve. Call it the 5- and 10-year portions than Fed funds. They have a little bit of sensitivity to the third year note as well. And when we think about what the market is expecting those portions of the Treasury curve to do, I apologize, I'm going to have to nerd out. Fortunately, being a nerd comes very naturally to me.If you look at the spread between the 5- and the 10-year portion of the treasury curve, 10 years yield about 50 basis points more than the 5-year note. So, you think about it, an investor could buy a 10-year note now. Or they could buy a 5-year note now and then another 5-year note in five years, and they should expect to get the same return if they do either one.So, if they buy the 10-year note right now at 50 basis points above where the 5-year note is. Or they buy the 5-year note, right now, the 5-year note in five years would have to yield 100 basis points above to get the average to be the same. Well, if the 5-year note in five years is 100 basis points above where the 5-year note is right now, mortgage rates are also probably going to be higher in five years.James Egan: Okay, so that's not helping the affordability issues. What can be done to lower mortgage rates from here?Jay Bacow: Well, going back to my inner nerd, if you brought the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields down, that would certainly be helpful. But mortgage rates aren't just predicated on where the Treasury yields are.There's also a risk premium on top of that. And so, if the mortgage originators can sell those loans to other investors at a tighter spread, that would also help bring the rate down. And there are things that can be done on that front. So, for instance, if the capital requirements for investors to own those mortgages go down, that would certainly be helpful.You could try to

Online crime is accelerating, making cybersecurity a fast-growing and resilient investment opportunity. Our Cybersecurity and Network and Equipment analyst Meta Marshall discusses the key trends driving this market shift.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley’s Cybersecurity and Network and Equipment Analyst. Today – the future of digital defense against cybercrime. It’s Friday, September 12th, at 10am in New York.Imagine waking up to find your bank account drained, your business operations frozen, or your personal data exposed – all because of a cyberattack. Today, cybersecurity isn't an esoteric tech issue. It impacts all of us, both as consumers and investors. As the digital landscape grows increasingly complex, the scale and severity of cybercrime expand in tandem. This means that even as companies spend more, the risks are multiplying even faster. For investors, this is both a warning and an opportunity.Cybersecurity is now a $270 billion market. And we expect it to grow at 12 percent per year through 2028. That's one of the fastest growth rates across software. And here's another number worth noting: Chief Information Officers we surveyed expect cybersecurity spending to grow 50 percent faster than software spending as a whole. This makes cybersecurity the most defensive area of IT budgets—meaning it’s least likely to be cut, even in tough times.This hasn’t been lost on investors. Security software has outperformed the broader market, and over the past three years, security stocks have delivered a 58 percent return, compared to just 22 percent for software overall and 79 percent for the NASDAQ. We expect this outperformance against software to continue as AI expands the number of ways hackers can get in and the ways those threats are evolving.Looking ahead, we see a handful of interconnected mega themes driving investment opportunities in cybersecurity. One of the biggest is platformization – consolidating security tools into a unified platform. Today, major companies juggle on average 130 different cyber security tools. This approach often creates complexity, not clarity, and can leave dangerous gaps in protection particularly as the rise of connected devices like robots and drones is making unified security platforms more important than ever.And something else to keep in mind: right now, security investments make up only 1 percent of overall AI spending, compared to 6 percent of total IT budgets—so there’s a lot of room to grow as AI becomes ever more central to business operations.  In today’s cybersecurity race, it’s not enough to simply pile on more tools or chase the latest buzzwords. We think some of the biggest potential winners are cybersecurity providers who can turn chaos into clarity. In addition to growing revenue and free cash flow, these businesses are weaving together fragmented defenses into unified, easy-to-manage platforms. They want to get smarter, faster, and more resilient – not just bigger. They understand that it’s key to cut through the noise, make systems work seamlessly together, and adapt on a dime as new threats emerge. In cybersecurity, complexity is the enemy—and simplicity is the new superpower. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how the evolving trade relationship between India and China could redefine global supply chains and unlock new investment opportunities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist. Today – one of the most important economic relationships of our time: India and China. And what the future may hold. It’s Thursday, September 11th at 2 pm in Hong Kong.Trade dynamics between India and China are evolving rapidly. They are not just shaping their own futures. They are influencing global supply chains and investment flows. India’s trade with China has nearly doubled in the last decade. India’s bilateral trade deficit with China is its largest—currently at U.S. $120 billion. On the flip side, China’s trade surplus with India is the biggest among all Asian economies.  We expect this trade relationship to deepen given economic imperatives. India needs support on tech know-how, capital goods and critical inputs; and China needs to capitalize on growth opportunities in the second largest and fastest growing EM. Let’s explore these issues in turn. India needs to integrate itself into the global value chain. And to do that, India needs Foreign Direct Investment from China, much like how China’s rise was fueled by Foreign Direct Investment from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Korea, which brought the technology and expertise. For India, easing restrictions on Chinese FDI could be a game-changer, enabling the transfer of tech know-how and boosting manufacturing competitiveness. Now, China is the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. It accounts for more than 40 percent of the global value chain—far ahead of the U.S. at 13 percent and India at just 4 percent. The global goods trade is increasingly focused on products higher up the value chain—think semiconductors, EVs, EV batteries, and solar panels. And China is the top global exporter in six of eight key manufacturing sectors. To put it quite simply, any economy that is looking to increase its participation in global value chains will have to increase its trade with China. For India, this means that it must rely on Chinese imports to meet its increasing demand for capital goods as well as critical inputs that are necessary for its industrialization. In fact, this is already happening. More than half of India’s imports from China and Hong Kong are capital goods—i.e. machinery and equipment needed for manufacturing and infrastructure investment. Industrial supplies make [up] another third of the imports, highlighting India’s dependence on China for critical inputs. From China’s perspective, India is the second largest and fastest-growing emerging market. And with U.S.-China trade tensions persisting, China is diversifying its exports markets, and India represents a significant opportunity. One way Chinese companies can capture this growth opportunity is to invest in and serve the domestic market. Chinese mobile phone companies have already been doing this and whether this can broaden to other sectors will depend on the opening up of India’s markets. To sum up, India can leverage on China’s strengths in manufacturing and technology while China can utilize India’s vast market for exports and investment.However, there’s a caveat: geopolitics. While economic imperatives point to deeper trade and investment ties, political developments could slow progress. Investors should watch this space closely and we will keep you updated on key developments. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower discusses her bullish outlook for gold and what the metal’s rally in 2025 says about inflation, central banks, and global risk.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. Today, we’re talking about gold, a metal that’s more than just a safe haven for investors, and what it tells us about the global economy and markets right now.It’s Wednesday, September 10th, at 3pm in London. Gold has always been the go-to asset in times of uncertainty. But in 2025, its role is evolving. Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk. When gold prices move, it’s often a sign that something big is happening beneath the surface.Gold and silver have both already clocked up hefty year-to-date gains of 39 and 42 percent respectively. So, what’s been driving this rally? Well, several factors stand out. For one, central banks are on track for another year of strong buying, with gold now representing a bigger share of central bank reserves than treasuries for the first time since 1996. This is a strong vote of confidence in gold’s long-term value. Also, gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds, or ETFs, saw inflows of $5 billion in August alone, with the year-to-date inflows the highest on record outside of 2020, signaling renewed interest from institutional investors too. With inflation still above target in many major economies, gold’s appeal has been surprisingly resilient despite being a non-yielding asset. And investors are betting that central banks may soon have to cut rates, which could further boost gold prices.   In fact, from here we see around 5 percent further upside to gold by year end to $3800/oz which would be a new all-time high. But there is one important wrinkle to consider. Keep in mind that while precious metals, especially gold, are primarily seen as a hedge and safe haven in times of macro uncertainty, jewelry is a big chunk of the overall precious metals market. It accounts for 40 percent of gold demand and 34 percent of silver demand. And right now how jewelry demand will evolve remains an unknown. In fact, jewelry demand is already showing signs of weakness. Second-quarter gold jewelry demand was the worst since the third quarter of 2020 as consumers reacted to high prices. Nonetheless, gold was able to hold onto its January-April gains, and silver continued to grind higher, supported by strong demand from the solar industry as well. However, until recently, the two metals were lacking catalysts for further gains. Now though this is changing, with both gold and silver poised to benefit from expected Fed rate cuts. Our economists expect the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting, for the first time since December 2024. And if we look back to the 1990s, on average gold and silver prices have risen 6 and 4 percent respectively in the 60 days following the start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle as lower yields make it easier for non-yielding assets to compete. Our FX strategists also expect further dollar weakness, which should ease some of the price pressures for holders of non-USD currencies, while India’s imports of gold and silver already showed signs of improvement in July. The country is looking also to reform its Goods and Services tax, which could free up purchasing power for gold and silver ahead of festival and wedding season. Gold does tend to outperform after Fed rate cuts, and we would keep the preference for gold over silver, but our outlook for both metals remains positive. Of course, precious metals are not risk-free. Prices can be volatile, and if central banks surprise the market with higher interest rates, gold in particular could lose some of its luster. But for now, both gold and silver should continue to shine. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Many Americans struggle with the rising cost of healthcare. Analysts Terence Flynn and Erin Wright explain how AI might bend the cost curve, from Morgan Stanley’s 23rd annual Global Healthcare Conference in New York.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Terence Flynn: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Biopharma Analyst.Erin Wright: And I'm Erin Wright, U.S. Healthcare Services Analyst.Terence Flynn: Thanks for joining us. We're actually in the midst of the second day of Morgan Stanley's annual Global Healthcare Conference, where we hosted over 400 companies. And there are a number of important themes that we discussed, including healthcare policy and capital allocation.Now, today on the show, we're going to discuss one of these themes, healthcare spending, which is one of the most pressing challenges facing the U.S. economy today.It is Tuesday, September 9th at 8am in New York.Imagine getting a bill for a routine doctor's visit and seeing a number that makes you do a double take. Maybe it's $300 for a quick checkup or thousands of dollars for a simple procedure.For many Americans, those moments of sticker shock aren't rare. They are the reality.Now with healthcare costs in the U.S. higher than many other peer countries on a percentage of GDP basis, it's no wonder that everyone – not just investors – is asking; not just, ‘Why is this happening?’ But ‘How can we fix it?’ And that's why we're talking about AI today. Could it be the breakthrough needed to help rein in those costs and reshape how care is delivered?Now I'm going to go over to you, Erin. Why is U.S. healthcare spending growing so rapidly compared to peer countries?Erin Wright: Clearly, the aging population in the U.S. and rising chronic disease burden here are clearly driving up demand for healthcare. We're seeing escalating demand across the senior population, for instance. It's coinciding with greater utilization of more sophisticated therapeutics and services. Overall, it's straining the healthcare system.We are seeing burnout in labor constraints at hospitals and broader health systems overall. Net-net, the U.S. spent 18 percent of GDP on healthcare in 2023, and that's compared to only 11 percent for peer countries. And it's projected to reach 25 to 30 percent of GDP by 2050. So, the costs are clearly escalating here.Terence Flynn: Thanks, Erin. That's a great way to frame the problem. Now, as we think about AI, where does that come in to help potentially bend the cost curve?Erin Wright: We think AI can drive meaningful efficiencies across healthcare delivery, with estimated savings of about [$]300 to [$]900 billion by 2050.So, the focus areas include here: staffing, supply chain, scheduling, adherence. These are where AI tools can really address some of these inefficiencies in care and ultimately drive health outcomes. There are implementation costs and risks for hospitals, but we do think the savings here can be substantial.Terence Flynn: Great. Well, let's unpack that a little bit more now. So, if you think about the biggest cost buckets in hospitals, where can AI help out?Erin Wright: The biggest cost bucket for a hospital today clearly is labor. It represents about half of spend for a hospital. AI can optimize staffing, reduce burnout with a new scribe and some of these scribe technologies that are out there, and more efficient healthcare record keeping. I mean, this can really help to drive meaningful cost savings.Just to add another discouraging data point for you, there's estimated to be a shortage of about 10,000 critical healthcare workers in 2028. So, AI can help to address that. AI tools can be used across administrative functions as well. That accounts for about 15 to 20 percent of spend for a hospital. So, we see substantial savings as well across drugs, supplies, lab testing, where AI can reduce waste and improve adherence overall.Terence Flynn: Great. Maybe we'll pivot over to the managed care and value-based care side now. How is AI being used in these verticals, Erin?Erin Wright: For a healthcare insurer – and they're facing many challenges right now as well – AI can help personalize care plans. And they can support better predictive analytics and ultimately help to optimize utilization trends. And it can also help to facilitate value-based care arrangements, which can ultimately drive better health outcomes and bend the cost curve. And ultimately that's the key theme that we're trying to focus on here.So, I'll turn it over to you, Terence, now. While hospitals and payers could see notable benefits from AI, the biopharma side of the equation is just as critical here. Especially when it comes to long-term cost containment. You've been closely tracking how AI is transforming drug development. What exactly are you seeing?Terence Flynn: Yeah, a number of key constituents are leaning in here on AI in a number of different ways. I'd say the most meaningful w

Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks after Friday's nonfarm payroll data reinforced the thesis of a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing Friday’s Payroll report and what it means for equities. It's Monday, Sept 8th at 11:30am in New York. So let’s get after it. The heavily anticipated nonfarm payroll report on Friday supports our view that the labor market is weak. However, this is old news to the equity market as we have been discussing for months. First, the labor market data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series. Second, it’s particularly prone to major revisions that tend to make the current data unreliable in real time, which is why the National Bureau of Economic Research typically declares a recession started at a time when most were unaware we were in one. Furthermore, history suggests these revisions are pro-cyclical, meaning they get more negative going into a recession and then more positive once the recovery’s begun. It appears this time is no different. Indeed, Friday’s revisions were better than last month’s by a wide margin suggesting the labor market bottomed in the second quarter. This insight adds support to our primary thesis on the economy and markets that I have been maintaining for the past several years. More specifically, I believe a rolling recession began in 2022 and finally bottomed in April with the tariff announcements made on “Liberation Day.” After the initial phase of this rolling recession, that was led by a payback in Covid pull-forward demand in tech and consumer goods, other sectors of the economy went through their own individual recessions at different times. This is a key reason why we never saw the typical spike in the metrics used to define a traditional recession, although the revisions data is now revealing it more clearly. The historically significant rise in immigration post-covid and subsequent enforcement this year have also led to further distortions in many of these labor market measures. While we have written about these topics extensively over the past several years, Friday’s weak labor report provides further evidence of our thesis that we are now transitioning from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. In short, we're entering a new cycle environment and the Fed cutting interest rates will be key to the next leg of the new bull market that began in April. Central to our view is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest. We think a better way to measure the health of the economy is earnings growth, and breadth; as well as consumer and corporate confidence surveys. Perhaps the simplest way to determine if an economy is doing well or not is to ask: is it delivering prosperity broadly? On that score, we think the answer is “no” given the fact that earnings growth has been negative for most companies over the past 3 years. The good news is that growth has finally entered positive territory the past 2 quarters. This coincides with the v-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth we have been highlighting for months. We think this supports the notion that the worst of the rolling recession is behind us and likely troughed in April. As usual, equity markets got this right and bottomed then, too. Now, we think a proper rate cutting cycle is likely and necessary for the next leg of this new bull market. Given the risk that the Fed may still be focused on inflation more than the weakness in the lagging labor market data, rate cuts may materialize more slowly than what equity investors want. Combined with some signs that liquidity may be drying up a bit as both corporate and Treasury issuance increases, it would not surprise me if equity markets go through some consolidation or even a correction during the seasonally weak time of the year. Should that happen, we would be buyers of that dip and likely even consider moving down the quality curve in anticipation of a more dovish Fed and coordinated action with the Treasury. Bottom line, a new bull market for equities began with the trough in the rolling recession that began in 2022. It’s still early days for this new bull which means dips should be bought.  Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us kn

Our G10 FX Market Strategist Andrew Watrous challenges the prevailing market view on the U.S. dollar, reaffirming the relevance of Morgan Stanley’s "dollar smile" framework. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Andrew Watrous, G10 FX Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Today – a look at how the US dollar behaves under different global growth circumstances. And why – contrary to the views of some observers – we think the dollar still smiles.It’s Friday, September 5, at 10 AM in New York.We've been talking a good amount on this show about the US dollar – not just as a currency, but as the cornerstone of the global financial system. As the world’s reserve currency, its movements ripple across markets everywhere. The trajectory of the dollar affects everything from your portfolio’s performance to the cost of your next international vacation.Let’s start with the “dollar smile,” which is a framework Morgan Stanley FX strategists developed back in 2001, to explain how the dollar behaves under different global growth scenarios.Picture a smile-shaped curve: On the lefthand side, the dollar rises, goes up, when global growth is concerningly weak as nervous investors flock to US assets as a safe haven. On the right side of the smile, when US growth outperforms growth in the rest of the world, capital flows into the US, boosting the dollar. In the middle of the curve – which is the bottom of the smile – the dollar weakens, goes down, when growth is robust around the world and synchronized globally. In that environment - middle of the smile - investors seek riskier assets which weighs on the dollar - in part because they could borrow in dollars and invest outside the US.It’s kind of a simple framework, right? But here’s the twist: some investors argue that the left side of the smile might be broken. In other words, they say that the dollar no longer rises if people are really worried about global growth.They say that if the US itself is the source of the growth shock -- whether it’s political uncertainty or trade wars -- the dollar shouldn’t benefit. Or that the rise in US interest rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow in the US and invest abroad, or changes in the structure of global asset holdings, might mean that growth scares won’t lead to an inflow to the US and a dollar bid.We disagree with those challenges to the dollar smile framework.To quantify the dollar smile, in order to test whether it still works, we started by using Economic Surprise Indices. These indices measure how actual economic data compares to forecasts.We found that when growth in the US and outside the US are both surprisingly weak - in other words they’re much weaker than forecasted - the dollar rises on average about 0.8% per month over the past 20 years. Then on the right side of the dollar smile, when US growth really outperforms expectations, but growth outside the US underperforms expectations, the dollar goes up even more—about 1.1% on average per month. And in the middle of the dollar smile, during synchronized global growth, the dollar tends to decline on average a little bit, about 0.1% on average per month.The question is, does that framework, does that pattern still hold up today?We think it does for a few different reasons. In 2018 and 2019, despite trade tensions and US policy uncertainty playing a big role in driving global growth concerns, the dollar strengthened during periods of poor global growth. In other words, the lefthand side of the dollar smile worked back then, even though the concerns were driven by US factors.And in June 2025, when geopolitical tensions spiked between Israel and Iran, and growth concerns became elevated - the dollar surged. Investors fled to safety, and the dollar delivered.It’s true that in April 2025, the dollar dipped initially after the first tariff announcements. But then it fell even more after those tariff hikes were paused, despite a rebound in stocks. Growth concerns were mitigated and the dollar went down. So this episode I think wasn’t really a breakdown of the smile. What weighed on the dollar this spring was policy unpredictability in the US, which led investors to reduce their exposure to US assets, rather than concerns about global growth.So these episodes, I think, show that the dollar can still act as a safe haven, despite changing patterns of global asset ownership, the rise in US interest rates, and even when the US itself is the source of global concerns.Now, setting aside the framework, it’s important to note that the US dollar dropped about 11% against other currencies in the first half of this year. This was the biggest decline in more than 50 years and it ended a 15-year bull cycle for the US dollar. Moreover, we think that the dollar will continue to weaken through 2026 as the Fed cuts interest rates and policy uncertainty remains elevated.Still, even with all that, we thi

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses the scenarios markets may face in September and for the rest of the year, as the Federal Reserve weighs interest rate cuts amidst slowing job growth and persistent inflation. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today, the narrow economic path the markets face as we come back from summer.It's Thursday, September 4th at 2:00 PM in London.September is a month of change and one of my favorite times of the year. The weather gets just a little crisper. Kids go back to school. Football, both kinds, are back on tv. And financial markets return from the summer in earnest, quickly ramping back up to full speed. This year, September brings a number of robust debates that we'll be covering on this podcast, but chief among these might be exactly how strong or not investors actually want the economy to be.You see, at the moment, the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates, and they're set to do that even though inflation in the US is still well above target and it's moving higher. That's unusual and it's made even more unusual in the context of financial conditions being very easy and the US government borrowing a historically large amount of money.The Fed's reason to lower interest rates despite strong markets, elevated inflation and high budget deficits, is the concern that the US labor market is weakening. And this fear is not unfounded. US job growth has recently slowed sharply. In 2023 and 2024, the US was adding on average about 200,000 jobs every month. But this year job growth has been less than half that amount, just 85,000 per month. And the most recent data's even worse. Tomorrow brings another important update. But here's the rub: the Fed, in theory, is lowering rates because the labor market is weaker. Markets would like those lower rates, but investors would not like a significantly weaker economy.And this logic is born out pretty starkly in history. When the Fed is lowering interest rates as growth holds up, that represents some of the best ever market environments, including the mid 1990s. But when the Fed lowers rates as the economy weakens, well, that represents some of the worst. So as the leaves start to turn and the air gets a little chilly, this is the fine line that markets face coming back into September. Weaker data for the labor market would make it easier to justify Fed cuts, but would make the broader backdrop more historically challenging. Stronger data could make the Fed look offsides, committing to lower interest rates despite high and rising inflation, easy financial conditions, and what would be a still resilient economy. And that could unleash even more aggressiveness and animal spirits.Stock markets might like that aggressiveness, but neither outcome is great for credit. And so by process of elimination, our market is hoping for something moderate, belt high, and over the middle of the plate. Our economists forecast for this Friday's jobs report for about 70,000 jobs, and a stable unemployment rate would fit that moderate bill. But for this month and now for the rest of the year, we'll be walking a narrow economic path.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole underscored the central bank’s new focus on managing downside growth risks. Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, talks about how that shift could impact markets heading into 2026.  Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: What a subtle shift in the Fed’s reaction function could mean for markets into year-end.It’s Wednesday, September 3rd at 11am in New York.Last week, our U.S. economics team flagged a subtle but important shift in U.S. monetary policy. Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole underscored that the Fed looks more focused on managing downside growth risks and, consequently, a bit more tolerant on inflation.As you heard Michael Gapen and Matthew Hornbach discuss last week – our colleagues expect this brings forward another Fed cut into September, kicking off a quarterly pace of 25 basis-point moves. But while this is a meaningful change in the timing of Fed rate cuts, this path would only result in slightly lower policy rates than those implied by the futures market, a proxy for the consensus of investors.So what does it mean for our views across asset classes? In short, our central case is for mostly positive returns across fixed income and equities into year-end. But the Fed’s increased tolerance for inflation is a new wrinkle that means investors are likely to experience more volatility along the way.Consider U.S. government bonds. A slower economy and falling policy rates argue for lower Treasury yields. But if investors grow more convinced that the Fed will tolerate firmer inflation, the curve could steepen further, with the risk of longer maturity yields falling less, or potentially even rising.Or consider corporate bonds. Our economic growth view is “slower but still expanding,” which generally bodes well for corporate balance sheets and, thus, the pricing of credit risk. That combined with lower front-end rates suggests a solid total return outlook for corporate credit, keeping us constructive on the asset class. But of course, if long end yields are moving higher, it would certainly cut against overall returns potential.Finally, consider the stock market. The base case is still constructive into year-end as U.S. earnings hold firm, and recent tax cuts should further help corporate cash flows. However, if long bonds sell off, this could put the rally at risk – at least temporarily, as my colleague Mike Wilson has highlighted; given that higher long-end yields are a challenge to the valuation of growth stocks.The risk? A repeat of the early-April dynamic where a long-end sell-off pressures valuations.Could we count on a shift in monetary policy to curb these risks? Or another public policy shift such as easing tariffs or Treasury adjusting its bond issuance plans? Possibly. But investors should understand this would be a reaction to market conditions, not a proactive or preventative shift. So bottom line, we still see many core markets set up to perform well, but the sailing should be less smooth than it has been in recent months.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why the macro backdrop could be changing in favor of agency mortgages after the Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today we're here to talk about why mortgages offer value after Jackson Hole. It's Tuesday, September 2nd at 2pm in New York. James Egan: So, Jay, let's start with the big picture after Jackson Hole, the Fed seems like it's leaning towards cutting rates in a steady, almost programmatic fashion. And in prior episodes of Thoughts on the Market, you've heard different strategists at Morgan Stanley talk about the potential implications there.But for mortgages, what does this mean? Jay Bacow: Well, it takes a lot of the uncertainty out of the market, and that's a big deal. One of the worst-case scenario[s] for agency mortgages – that the investors are buying not mortgages that homeowners have – would've been the Fed staying on hold for much longer than expected. With that risk receding, the backdrop for investors owning agency mortgages feels a lot more supportive. And when we look at high quality assets, we think mortgages look like the cheapest option. Jim, you mentioned some of the previous strategists that come on Thoughts on the Market. Our Global Head of Corporate Credit Strategy, Andrew Sheets had highlighted recently how credit spreads are trading at basically the tights of the past 20 years. Mortgages are basically at the average level of the past 20 years. It seems attractive to us. James Egan: And that relative value really does matter. Investors are looking for places to earn yield without taking on too much credit risk. Mortgages, particularly agency mortgages with government guarantee there, they offer that balance. Jay Bacow: Right. And it's not just that balance, but when we think about what goes into the asset pricing, the supply and demand picture makes a big difference. And that we think is changing. One of the reasons that mortgages have underperformed corporate credit is that when you look at the composition of the buyers, the two largest holders of mortgages are the Fed and domestic banks. The Fed's obviously going to continue to run their portfolio down, but domestic banks have also been on the sidelines. And that's meant that money managers, and to a lesser extent overseas, have had to be the largest buyers. But we think that could change. James Egan: Right, with more clarity on Fed policy, banks in particular may get more comfortable adding mortgages to their balance sheets, though the exact timing depends on regulatory developments. REITs might also find this more compelling? Jay Bacow: Right. If the Fed's cutting rates, the front end is going to be lower, and that's going to mean that the incentive to move out of cash should be higher, and that's going to help both banks and likely REITs. But then there's also the supply side.Net issuance of conventional mortgage has been negative this year. That's obviously good. And some of the other technicals are improving as well. Vols are trading better, and all of this just contributes to a healthier landscape. James Egan: Right. And another thing that we've talked about when discussing mortgage valuations is the importance of volatility. If you're buying mortgages, you're inherently short rate volatility – and volatility has come down meaningfully since last year, even if it's still above pre-COVID norms. Lower volatility supported for mortgage valuations, especially when paired with a Fed that's cutting rates steadily. Though Jay, some of that already in the price? Jay Bacow: Yeah, look. We didn't say mortgages were cheap. We just said mortgages are trading at the long-term averages. But in an environment where stocks are near the all time high and credits near the tights of the past 20 years, we do see that value. And the Fed cutting rates, as we said, should incentivize investors to move out of cash and into securities. Now, there are risks when valuations and other asset classes are as tight or as high as they are. You could see risk assets broadly underperform and mortgages are a risk asset. So, if credit widens, mortgages would not be immune. James Egan: And timing is important here too, right? Especially we think about banks coming back if they wait for full clarity on Basel III proposals – that could be delayed. On top of that, there's prepayment risk… Jay Bacow: Yeah, if rates rally, then speeds could pick up and investors are going to demand more compensation. But summing it up. Mortgages look wide

In the second of a two-part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach talk about how Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could react to the possible Fed rate path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Yesterday we talked about Michael's reaction to the Jackson Hole meeting last week, and our assessment of the Fed's potential policy pivot. Today my reaction to the price action that followed Chair Powell's speech and what it means for our outlook for the interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar. It's Friday, August 29th at 10am in New York, Michael Gapen: Okay, Matt. Yesterday you were in the driver's seat asking me questions about how Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole influenced our views around the outlook for monetary policy. I'd like to turn it back to you, if I may. What did you make of the price action that followed the meeting? Matthew Hornbach: Well, I think it's safe to say that a lot of investors were surprised just as you were by what Chair Powell delivered in his opening remarks. We saw a fairly dramatic decline in short-term interest rates, taking the two-year Treasury yield down quite a bit. And at the same time, we also saw the yield curve steepen, which means that the two-year yield fell much more than the 10-year yield and the 30-year bond yield fell. And I think what investors were thinking with this surprise in mind is just what you mentioned earlier – that perhaps this is a Fed that does have slightly more tolerance for above target inflation. And so, you can imagine a world in which, if the Fed does in fact cut rates, as you're forecasting, or more aggressively than you're forecasting, amidst an environment where inflation continues to run above target. Then you could see that investors would gravitate towards shorter maturity treasuries because the Fed is cutting interest rates and typically shorter-term Treasury yields follow the Fed funds rate up or down. But at the same time reconsider their love of duration and taking duration risk. Because when you move out the yield curve in your investments and you're buying a 10-year bond or a 30-year bond, you are inherently taking the view that the Fed does care about inflation and keeping it low and moving it back to target. And if this Fed still cares about that, but perhaps on the margin slightly less than it did before, then perhaps investors might demand more compensation for owning that duration risk in the long end of the yield curve. Which would then make it more difficult for those long-term yields to fall. And so, I think what we saw on Friday was a pretty classic response to a Federal Reserve speech in this case from the Chair that was much more dovish than investors had anticipated going in. The final thing I'd say in this regard is the following Monday, when we looked at the market price action, there wasn't very much follow through. In other words, the Treasury market didn't continue to rally, yields didn't continue to fall. And I think what that is telling you is that investors are still relatively optimistic about the economy at this point. Investors aren't worried that the Fed knows something that they don't. And so, as a result, we didn't really see much follow through in the U.S. Treasury market on the following Monday. So, I do think that investors are going to be watching the data much like yourself, and the Fed. And if we do end up getting worse data, the Treasury market will likely continue to perform very well. If the data rebounds, as you suggested in one of your alternative scenarios, then perhaps the Treasury rally that we've seen year-to-date will take a pause. Michael Gapen: And if I can follow up and ask you about your views on the trough of any cutting cycle. We have generally been projecting an end to the easing cycle that's below where markets are pricing. So, in general, a deeper cutting cycle. Could some of that – the market viewpoint of greater tolerance for inflation be driving market prices vis-a-vis what we're thinking? Or how do you assess where the market prices, the trough of any cutting cycle, versus what we're thinking at any point in time? Matthew Hornbach: So, once you move beyond the forecastable horizon, which you tell me… Michael Gapen: About three days … Matthew Hornbach: Probably about three days. But, you know, within the next couple of months, let's say. The way that the market would price a central bank's likely policy path, or average policy path, is going to depend on how investors are thinking about the reaction function of the central bank. And so, to the extent that it becomes clear that the central bank,

In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year.  Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Last Friday, the Jackson Hole meeting delivered a big surprise to markets. Both stocks and bonds reacted decisively.Today, the first of a two-part episode. We'll discuss Michael's reaction to Chair Powell's Jackson Hole comments and what they mean for his view on the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, the outlook for interest rate markets and the US dollar. It's Thursday, August 28th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, here we are after Jackson Hole. The mood this year felt a lot more hawkish, or at least patient than what we saw last week. And Chair Powell really caught my attention when he said, “with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook for the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That line has been on my mind ever since. So, let's dig into it. What's your gut reaction?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me, and I think I would highlight three aspects of his Jackson Hole comments that were important to me. So, I think what happened here, of course, is the Fed became much more worried about downside risk to the labor market after the July employment report, right? So, at the July FOMC meeting, which came before that report, Powell had said, ‘Well, you know, slow payroll growth is fine as long as the unemployment rate stays low.’ And that's very much in line with our view. But sometimes these things are easier said than done. And I think the July employment report told them perhaps there's more weakness in the labor market now than they thought.So, I think the messaging here is about a shift towards risk management mode. Maybe we need to put in a couple policy rate cuts to shore up the labor market. And I think that was the big change and I think that's what drove the overall message in the statement. But there were two other parts of it that I think were interesting, you know. From the economist’s point of view, when the chair explicitly writes in a speech that ‘the economy now may warrant adjustments in our policy stance,’ right? I mean, that's a big deal. It suggests that the decision has been largely made, and I think anytime the Fed is taking a change of direction, either easing or tightening, they're not just going to do one move. So, they're signaling that they're likely prepared to do a series of moves, and we can debate about what that means. And the third thing that struck me is right before the line that you mentioned he did qualify the need to adjust rates by saying, well, whatever we do, we should, “Proceed cautiously.” So, a year ago, as you recall, the Fed opened up with a big 50 basis point rate cut, which was a surprise. And cut at three successive meetings. So, a hundred basis points of cuts over three meetings, starting with a 50 basis point cut. I think the phraseology ‘proceeds carefully’ is a signal to markets that, ‘Hey, don't expect that this time around.’ The world's different. This is a risk management discussion. And so, we think, two rate cuts before year end would be most likely. Maybe you get three. But I don't think we should expect a large 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. So those would be my thoughts. Downside risk to the labor market – putting this into words says something important to me. And the ‘proceed cautiously’ language I think is something markets also need to take into account.Matthew Hornbach: So how do you translate that into a forecasted path for the Fed? I mean, in terms of your baseline outlook, how many rate cuts are you forecasting this year? And what about in 2026?Michael Gapen: Right. So, we previously; we thought what the Fed was doing was leaning against risks that inflation would be persistent. They moved into that camp because of how fast tariffs were going up and the overall level of the effective tariff rate. So, we thought they would stay on hold for longer and when they move, move more rapidly. What they're saying now in a risk management sense, right; they still think risk to inflation is to the upside, but the unemployment rate is also to the upside. And they're looking at both of those as about equally weighted. So, in a baseline outlook where the Fed's not assuming a recession and neither are we, you get a maybe a dip in growth and a rise in inflation. But growth recovers and inflation comes down next year. In that world, and with the idea that you're proceeding cautiously, they're kind of movi

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses why a potential start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve might be a cause for concern for credit markets.  Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – could interest rate cuts by the Fed unleash more corporate aggressiveness? It's Wednesday, August 27th at 2pm in London. Last week, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell hinted strongly that the Central Bank was set to cut interest rates at next month's meeting. While this outcome was the market's expectation, it was by no means a given.The Fed is tasked with keeping unemployment and inflation low. The US unemployment rate is low, but inflation is not only above the Fed's target, it's recently been trending in the wrong direction. And to bring inflation down the Fed would typically raise interest rates, not lower them. But that is not what the Fed appears likely to do; based importantly on a belief that these inflationary pressures are more temporary, while the job market may soon weaken. It is a tricky, unusual position for the Fed to be in, made even more unusual by what is going on around them. You see, the Fed tries to keep the economy in balance; neither too hot or too cold. And in this regard, its interest rate acts a bit like taps on a faucet. But there are other things besides this rate that also affect the temperature of the economic water. How easy is it to borrow money? Is the currency stronger or weaker? Are energy prices high or low? Is the equity market rising or falling? Collectively these measures are often referred to as financial conditions. And so, while it is unusual for the Federal Reserve to be lowering interest rates while inflation is above its target and moving higher, it's probably even more unusual for them to do so while these other governors of economic activity, these financial conditions are so accommodative. Equity valuations are high. Credit spreads are tight. Energy prices are low. The US dollar is weak. Bond yields have been going down, and the US government is running a large deficit. These are all dynamics that tend to heat the economy up. They are more hot water in our proverbial sink. Lowering interest rates could now raise that temperature further. For credit, this is mildly concerning, for two rather specific reasons. Credit is currently sitting with an outstanding year. And part of this good year has been because companies have generally been quite conservative, with merger activity modest and companies borrowing less than the governments against which they are commonly measured. All this moderation is a great thing for credit. But the backdrop I just described would appear to offer less moderation. If the Fed is going to add more accommodation into an already easy set of financial conditions, how long will companies really be able to resist the temptation to let the good times roll? Recently merger activity has started to pick up. And historically, this higher level of corporate aggressiveness can be good for shareholders. But it's often more challenging to lenders. But it's also possible that the Fed's caution is correct. That the US job market really is set to weaken further despite all of these other supportive tailwinds. And if this is the case, well, that also looks like less moderation. When the Fed has been cutting interest rates as the labor market weakens, these have often been some of the most challenging periods for credit, given the risk to the overall economy. So much now rests on the data. What the Fed does and how even new Fed leadership next year could tip the balance. But after significant outperformance and with signs pointing to less moderation ahead, credit may now be set to lag its fixed income peers. Thank you as always for listening. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our analysts Adam Jonas and Alex Straton discuss how tech-savvy young professionals are influencing retail, brand loyalty, mobility trends, and the broader technology landscape through their evolving consumer choices. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI and Humanoid Robotics Analyst. Alex Straton: And I'm Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Softlines Retail and Brands Analyst. Adam Jonas: Today we're unpacking our annual summer intern survey, a snapshot of how emerging professionals view fashion retail, brands, and mobility – amid all the AI advances.It is Tuesday, August 26th at 9am in New York.They may not manage billions of dollars yet, but Morgan Stanley's summer interns certainly shape sentiment on the street, including Wall Street. From sock heights to sneaker trends, Gen Z has thoughts. So, for the seventh year, we ran a survey of our summer interns in the U.S. and Europe. The survey involved more than 500 interns based in the U.S., and about 150 based in Europe. So, Alex, let’s start with what these interns think about fashion and athletic footwear. What was your biggest takeaway from the intern survey? Alex Straton: So, across the three categories we track in the survey – that's apparel, athletic footwear, and handbags – there was one clear theme, and that's market fragmentation. So, for each category specifically, we observed share of the top three to five brands falling over time. And what that means is these once dominant brands, as consumer mind share is falling – and it likely makes them lower growth margin and multiple businesses over time. At the same time, you have smaller brands being able to captivate consumer attention more effectively, and they have staying power in a way that they haven't necessarily historically. I think one other piece I would just add; the rise of e-commerce and social media against a low barrier to entry space like apparel and footwear means it's easier to build a brand than it has been in the past. And the intern survey shows us this likely continues as this generation is increasingly inclined to shop online. Their social media usage is heavy, and they heavily rely on AI to inform, you know, their purchases.So, the big takeaway for me here isn't that the big are getting bigger in my space. It's actually that the big are probably getting smaller as new players have easier avenues to exist. Adam Jonas: Net apparel spending intentions rose versus the last survey, despite some concern around deteriorating demand for this category into the back half. What do you make of that result? Alex Straton: I think there were a bit conflicting takes from the survey when I look at all the answers together. So yes, apparel spending intentions are higher year-over-year, but at the same time, clothing and footwear also ranked as the second most category that interns would pull back on should prices go up. So let me break this down. On the higher spending intentions, I think timing played a huge role and a huge factor in the results. So, we ran this in July when spending in our space clearly accelerated. That to me was a function of better weather, pent up demand from earlier in the quarter, a potential tariff pull forward as headlines were intensifying, and then also typical back to school spending. So, in short, I think intention data is always very heavily tethered to the moment that it's collected and think that these factors mean, you know, it would've been better no matter what we've seen it in our space. I think on the second piece, which is interns pulling back spend should prices go up. That to me speaks to the high elasticity in this category, some of the highest in all of consumer discretionary. And that's one of the few drivers informing our cautious demand view on this space as we head into the back half. So, in summary on that piece, we think prices going higher will become more apparent this month onwards, which in tandem with high inventory and a competitive setup means sales could falter in the group. So, we still maintain this cautious demand view as we head into the back half, though our interns were pretty rosy in the survey. Adam Jonas: Interesting. So, interns continue to invest in tech ecosystems with more than 90 percent owning multiple devices. What does this interconnectedness mean for companies in your space? Alex Straton: This somewhat connects to the fragmentation theme I mentioned where I think digital shopping has somewhat functioned as a great equalizer in the space and big picture. I interpret device reliance as a leading indicator that this market diversification likely continues as brands fight to capture mobile mind share. The second read I'd have on this development is that it means bra

Opinions by market pundits have been flying since Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole last week, leaving the door open for interest rate cuts as soon as in September. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains his continued call for a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I’ll be discussing the Fed’s new signaling on policy and what it means for stocks. It's Monday, August 25th at 11:30am in New York.   So, let’s get after it. Over the past few months, the markets started to anticipate a Fed pivot to a more dovish stance this fall. More specifically, the bond market started to price in a very high likelihood for the Fed to start cutting interest rates again in September. Equities have taken their cues from this signaling in the bond market by trading higher through most of the summer – despite lingering concerns about tariffs, international conflicts and valuation. I have remained bullish throughout this period given our focus on historically strong earnings revisions and the view that the Fed’s next move would be to cut rates even if the timing remained uncertain.  Last week, the Fed held its annual symposium in Jackson Hole where they typically discuss near term policy intentions as well as larger considerations for their strategic policy framework. We learned two key things.  First, the Fed seems closer to cutting rates in September than the last time Chair Powell spoke publicly. This change also comes after a week in which the markets were left wondering if he would remain more hawkish until inflation data confirmed what markets have already figured out. Clearly, Powell leaned more dovish. And with markets a bit nervous going into his speech on Friday morning, equities rallied sharply the rest of the day.  Second, the Fed also indicated that it will no longer target average inflation at 2 percent. Instead, it will make 2 percent the target at all times. This means the Fed will not tolerate inflation above or below target to manage the average like it did in 2021-22. It also suggests a more hawkish Fed should the economy recover more strongly than is currently expected or inflation reaccelerates.  From my standpoint, this is bullish for stocks over the next few weeks and markets can now fully anticipate Fed cuts in September. However, I see a few risks for September and October worth thinking about as the S&P 500 approaches our longstanding 6500 target. The first risk is the Fed decides to not cut after all because either growth is better or inflation is higher than expected. That would be worth a small correction in stocks given the high likelihood of a cut that is now priced in. The second risk is the Fed cuts but the bond market decides it’s being too carefree about inflation and longer term bonds sell off. A sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields would likely elicit a bigger correction in stocks until the Treasury and Fed regain control.  Here’s the important message I want to leave you with. A major bear market ended in April, and a new bull market began. It’s rare for new bull markets to last only four months and more likely they last one-to-two years, at a minimum. What that means is that any dips we get this fall are likely to be buying opportunities for longer term investors. What gives us even more confidence in that statement is that earnings revisions continue to move sharply higher. The Fed uses economic data to make its decisions and that data is generally backward looking. Equity investors look at company data and guidance which is forward looking. This fact alone explains the wide divergence between equity prices and Fed decisions, which tend to be late and after equity markets have already figured out what’s going to happen rather than what’s in the past.  Bottom line, I remain bullish on the next 12 months given what companies and equity markets are telling us.  Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Credit spreads are at the lowest levels in more than two decades, indicating health of the corporate sector. However, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets highlights two forces investors should monitor moving forward.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – what to make of credit spreads as they hit some of their lowest levels in over 20 years? And what could change that? It's Friday, August 22nd at 2pm in London. The credit spread is the difference between the higher yield an investor gets for lending to a company relative to the government. This difference in yield is a reflection of perceived differences in risk. And bond investors spend a lot of time thinking, debating, and trading what they think it should be. It increases as the rating of a company falls and usually increases for bonds with longer maturities relative to shorter ones. The reason one invests in credit is to hopefully pick up some extra yield relative to buying a government bond and do so without taking too much additional risk. The challenge today is that these spreads are very low – or tight, in market parlance. In the U.S. corporate bonds with Investment Grade ratings only pay about three-quarters of a percent more than U.S. government bonds of the same maturity. It's a similar difference between the yield on companies in Europe and the yield on German debt, the safest benchmark in Europe. And so, in the U.S. these are the lowest spread levels since 1998, and in Europe, they're the lowest levels since 2007. The relevant question would seem to be, well, what changes this? One way of thinking about valuations in investing – and spreads are certainly a measure of valuation – is whether levels are so extreme that there's not really any precedent for them being sustained for an extended period of time.  But for credit, this is a tricky argument. Spreads have been lower than their current levels. They were that way in the mid 1990s in the U.S., and they were that way in the mid 2000s in Europe, and they stayed that way for several years. And if we go back even further in time to the 1950s? Well, it looks like U.S. spreads were lower still. Another way to think about risk premiums – and spreads are also certainly a measure of risk premium – is: does it compensate you for the extra risk? And again, even with spreads quite low, this is tricky. Only making an extra three-quarters of a percent to invest in corporate bonds feels like a pretty miserly amount to both the casual observer and yours truly, a seasoned credit professional. But when we run the numbers, the extra losses that you've actually experienced for investing in Investment Grade bonds over time relative to governments, it's actually been about half of that. And that holds up over a relatively long period of time. And so, while spreads are very low by historical standards, extreme valuations don't always correct quickly. They often need another force to impact them. With credit currently benefiting from strong investor demand, good overall yields, and a better borrowing trajectory than governments, we'd be watching two dynamics for this to change. First weaker growth than we have at the moment would argue strongly that the risk premium and corporate debt needs to be higher. While the levels have varied, credit spreads have always been significantly wider than current levels in a U.S. recession; and that's looking out over a century of data. And so, if the odds of a recession were to go up, credit, we think, would have to take notice. Second, the fiscal trajectory for governments is currently worse than corporates, which argues for a tighter than normal corporate spread. And the recent U.S. budget bill only further reinforced this by increasing long-term borrowing for the U.S. government, while extending corporate tax cuts to the private sector. But the risk would be that companies start to take these benefits and throw caution to the wind and start to borrow more again – to invest or buy other companies. We haven't seen this type of animal spirit yet. But history would suggest that if growth holds up, it's usually just a matter of time. Thank you as always for listening. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, please let us know by leaving a review wherever you found us. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

From China’s rapid electric vehicle adoption to the rise of robotaxis, humanoids, and flying vehicles, our analysts Adam Jonas and Tim Hsiao discuss how AI is revolutionizing the global auto industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas. I lead Morgan Stanley's Research Department's efforts on embodied AI and humanoid robots. Tim Hsiao: And I'm Tim Hsiao, Greater China Auto Analyst. Adam Jonas: Today – how the global auto industry is evolving from horsepower to brainpower with the help of AI. It's Thursday, August 21st at 9am in New York. Tim Hsiao: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Adam Jonas: From Detroit to Stuttgart to Shanghai, automakers are making big investments in AI. In fact, AI is the engine behind what we think will be a $200 billion self-driving vehicle market by 2030. Tim, you believe that nearly 30 percent of vehicles sold globally by 2030 will be equipped with Level 2+ smart driving features that can control steering, acceleration, braking, and even some hands-off driving. We expect China to account for 60 percent of these vehicles by 2030. What's driving this rapid adoption in China and how does it compare to the rest of the world? Tim Hsiao: China has the largest EV market globally, and the country’s EV sales are not only making up over 50 percent of the new car sales locally in China but also accounting for over 50 percent of the global EV sales. As a result, the market is experiencing intense competition. And the car makers are keen to differentiate with the technological innovation, to which smart driving serve[s] as the most effective means. This together with the AI breakthrough enables China to aggressively roll out Level 2+ urban navigation on autopilot. In the meantime, Chinese government support, and cost competitive supply chains also helps. So, we are looking for China's the adoption of Level 2+ smart driving on passenger vehicle to reach 25 percent by end of this year, and 60 percent by 2030 versus 6 percent and 17 percent for the rest of the world during the same period. Adam Jonas: How is China balancing an aggressive rollout with safety and compliance, especially as it moves towards even greater vehicle automation going forward? Tim Hsiao: Right. That's a great and a relevant question because over the years, China has made significant strides in developing a comprehensive regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles. For example, China was already implementing its strategies for innovation and the development of autonomous vehicles in 2022 and had proved several auto OEM to roll out Level 3 pilot programs in 2023. Although China has been implementing stricter requirements since early this year; for example, banning terms like autonomous driving in advertisement and requiring stricter testing, we still believe more detailed industry standard and regulatory measures will facilitate development and adoption of Level 2+ Smart driving. And this is important to prevent, you know, the bad money from driving out goods. Adam Jonas: One way people might encounter this technology is through robotaxis. Now, robotaxis are gaining traction in China's major cities, as you've been reporting. What's the outlook for Level 4 adoption and how would this reshape urban mobility? Tim Hsiao: The size of Level 4+ robotaxi fleet stays small at the moment in China, with less than 1 percent penetration rate. But we've started seeing accelerating roll out of robotaxi operation in major cities since early this year. So, by 2030, we are looking for Level 4+ robotaxis to account for 8 percent of China's total taxi and ride sharing fleet size by 2030. So, this adoption is facilitated by robust regulatory frameworks, including designated test zones and the clear safety guidance. We believe the proliferation of a Level 4 robotaxi will eventually reshape the urban mobility by meaningfully reducing transportation costs, alleviating traffic congestion through optimized routing and potentially reducing accidents. So, Adam, that's the outlook for China. But looking at the global trends beyond China, what are the biggest global revenue opportunities in your view? Is that going to be hardware, software, or something else? Adam Jonas: We are entering a new scientific era where the AI world, the software world is coming into far greater mental contact, and physical contact, with the hardware world and the physical world of manufacturing. And it's being driven by corporate rivalry amongst not just the terra cap, you know, super large cap companies, but also between public and private companies and competition. And then it's being also fueled by geopolitical rivalry and social issues as well, on a global scale. So, we're actually creating an entirely new species. This robotic species that yes, is exp