This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump’s talk of boosted tariffs has sparked concerns of a major trade war with America’s rivals. The Chinese government has responded that “no one will win a trade war” and with economists warning that tariffs are liable to increase inflation, who will be the losers of Trump’s trade policies? And how would tariffs affect global relations in an already unstable world? To discuss the potential economic and geopolitical impacts of Trump’s tariffs, Gavin Esler talks to US-China trade expert Professor Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and trade economist Dr Rebecca Harding, senior fellow at the British Foreign Policy Group. This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times? Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, ranging up to 60% on goods from China. Trade wars and worldwide economic dislocation loom. What can leaders do to plan and prepare for his return to power? Gavin Esler talks to Peter Ricketts – retired senior diplomat, crossbench peer, former UK National Security Adviser and former chair of the UK Joint Intelligence Committee – about the global impact of Trump 2.0. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He talks to Gavin Esler about the scale of the challenge, the damage done by European governments’ shortsightedness about the Kremlin’s escalating provocations, and why the advent of another Trump Presidency is more than a wake-up call. • “These are decisions that should have been taken years and decades ago. They should not have taken the threat of a Trump to push them to into action.” • “Russia has been at war with us in every domain except open military conflict for over a decade now.” • Twitter refugee? Follow TINAD, Gavin Esler and Keir Giles on BlueSky. • Buy Who Will Defend Europe? through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund TINAD by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Zelenskyy’s attack into the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine was audacious and unexpected. But with Ukrainian resources stretched thin after three years of fighting – and with thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia to reinvigorate Putin’s war effort – is it working? Will the alliance between Putin and fellow dictator Kim Jong-Un make a dire conflict worse? And with the result of the US election uncertain, will Western allies finally provide the support Ukraine needs to defeat Russia? Oz Katerji talks to independent foreign policy and security analyst Jimmy Rushton in Kyiv about reporting from the front lines and the prospects for Ukraine, and wider Europe, as the full-scale war approaches the end of its third year. Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption, bribery and cronyism aren’t just criminal matters. International alliances of corrupt states and their enablers are undermining democracies and international law, creating a world without rules where everything and anyone can be bought. From Putin’s gangster state to COVID corruption and favouritism in the UK, the West’s response has been feeble. Is Kleptocracy the real threat to global stability? Emma Beals explores an existential danger with anti-corruption writer Sarah Chayes – author of Everybody Knows: Corruption in America – and Guardian investigations correspondent and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth Tom Burgis. • “If Trump wins, more than ever US policy will be up for sale.” – Sarah Chayes • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. • When you buy books through our affiliate bookshop you’re helping fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Try the new science and psychology podcast Why? – from the producers of This Is Not A Drill. Why? is the podcast for curious minds. Every Thursday, presenter Emma Kennedy talks to experts and theorists to discover the science and psychology of why we are the way we are. In the first episode: Why do people join cults? Emma Kennedy talks to world-leading cult deprogrammer Rick Alan Ross and NXIVM cult survivor Sarah Edmondson to discover the strange allure of the cult mindset. Go here to hear the complete episode. Follow on your favourite podcast app so you never miss an episode. WHY? is presented by Emma Kennedy. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production and theme music by Jade Bailey. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Artwork by James Parrett. Additional music is from Artlist.io. WHY? is a Podmasters Production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States. At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China. In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideological and economic rivalry, as China expert Kerry Brown discusses his new book The Taiwan Story, How A Small Island Will Dictate The Global Future. And to find out how we got here, Oriana Skylar Mastro, fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, discusses her book Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, to chart China’s economic explosion, growing military power and expanding global influence. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big Tech’s innovations have remade every aspect of everyday life – but its libertarian-fuelled political side is darker. Elon Musk has repurposed X/Twitter as an active part of Trump’s re-election campaign, platforming far right agitators like Tucker Carlson, and spreading incendiary misinformation. Brazil is locked in a legal battle with Twitter over disinformation and Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov was arrested over allegations that his platform is open to criminal abuse. Do governments need to rein in the Tech Titans? Is Big Tech undermining democracy? Gavin Esler talks to Marietje Schaake, international policy director of Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center and author of The Tech Coup: How To Save Democracy from Silicon Valley, and Scott Bade, senior analyst, geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year since Hamas’s attacks on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s devastation of Gaza, the conflict spills over to Lebanon – and brings Tel Aviv and Tehran into direct military confrontation. Gavin Esler explores hopes for a ceasefire and political resolution in the Middle East with diplomacy expert Randa Slim, and Dr H A Hellyer – scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and senior associate fellow of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, RUSI. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a week of drastic escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, what will come next? Recording on October 1st just as reports emerged from the US warning of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Gavin Esler spoke to Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, to discuss Iran’s response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not a Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Lebanon faces intensifying conflict after the deadly escalation in Israel’s rivalry with paramilitary group Hezbollah. An increasing series of skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel has occurred since tensions in the region exploded with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent bombing campaign in Gaza. Now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hezbollah has been ‘hit with a string of strikes it didn’t imagine’ - after a Mossad plot to rig Hezbollah pagers with explosives brought chaos to Lebanon. Israel has since stepped up aerial bombardment of Hezbollah targets in the country, with hundreds reported dead. What next for Lebanon, already scarred by decades of conflict? How will Hezbollah and its patron Iran respond? And can the US and allies rein in Netanyahu and find a route to a ceasefire? Gavin Esler discusses the latest from the region with Gregg Carlstom, Middle East correspondent at The Economist. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After decades of treaties and diplomacy curbing fears over the use of nuclear weaponry, does today’s conflicted world surface the threat of a new nuclear age? Following the brinkmanship of the Cold War, an era of non-proliferation saw stockpiles of weapons cut dramatically. Yet concerns grow that nuclear arsenals may expand again. Gavin Esler discusses a potential new arms race with Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and hears about the history of non-proliferation from Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does it take to get rid of a dictator? How do these tyrannical figures cling onto power - and how does this power warp their decision-making? Can they ever know when someone is telling them the truth, when everyone around them lives in fear? To find out, Gavin Esler speaks to Marcel Dirsus, whose new book How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive serves as a guide on how to depose the despots. Buy How Tyrants Fall through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Artificial Intelligence is continuing to develop whether we like it or not. But how will it affect our lives, and what should we make of the endless doom-laden scenarios suggesting humans are about to be rendered obsolete by machines? How scared should we all be about A.I., and does it offer more opportunities, or potential dangers? Gavin Esler discusses the benefits and risks of A.I. with Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recent deadly missile exchanges are the largest escalation between Israel and the Lebanon-based Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Many fear it’s a precursor to a wider conflict which could engulf the region. But is it all brinkmanship? Can diplomacy head off an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, and a potentially catastrophic regional face-off between Israel and Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran? Oz Katerji discusses the history and motives of Hezbollah with Lebanese political commentator Ronnie Chatah, and talks Iran and its regime’s foreign policy with Arash Azizi, historian and author of the recent book What Iranians Want. Go to http://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Climate change doesn’t just mean dire consequences for food, water, human migration and long-term human survival. As the seas heat up they create critical security issues, from impacts on military sonar to spikes in turbulence threatening commercial flights, from new theatres of war to suddenly fragile states and strengthened terrorist groups. Are we ignoring a new source of global instability? Emma Beals talks to New Scientist’s environment reporter Madeleine Cuff about why the oceans are warming and where – and asks Pentagon advisor, strategist and Polar Institute fellow Sherri Goodman about why hotter, more dangerous seas are a “threat multiplier”. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The course of the war in Ukraine changed dramatically on Tuesday 6th August when Ukraine launched an unprecedented incursion on Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive took Moscow entirely by surprise, with thousands of Ukrainian troops moving into the region – taking control of villages – and claiming 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. What does this sudden move to the offensive by Zelenskyy mean? What can Ukraine achieve – and how does the attack change the dynamic of the war? Oz Katerji finds out from Ukraine security expert Maria Avdeeva, Research Director at the European Expert Association. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Eliza Beard Davis. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. The Ukraine war might have left her internationally isolated and starved of resources – but Putin and his oligarch court are adept at avoiding financial restrictions, cutting side deals that enable them to fund the war and protect their power. Are the West’s sanctions working? How can we tighten them? Is there really any difference between sanctions evasion and international criminal money laundering? And who are Putin’s true allies? Gavin Esler finds out from Maria Shagina – Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and Ian Garner of Poland’s Pilecki Institute, author of Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The days of Western economic, cultural and military dominance are fading. China’s influence and military assertiveness are growing. Rising economies like Brazil, Indonesia and India are increasing powerful. What will the world look like when the West doesn’t write the rules any more? Gavin Esler talks to former UK diplomat Samir Puri about his book Westlessness: The Great Global Rebalancing, and with Tufts University Professor of International Politics Dan Drezner about America’s foreign policy crossroads. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The existential threats to world stability are working together. Autocrats in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are moving in concert with both their clients and fellow travellers in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Myanmar, Belarus and other despotisms. United not by ideology but by a love of repression, wealth and power, these new tyrants strike deals to consolidate their control and threaten their shared enemy: us. What does this League Against The Nations want? And how can we combat it? Pulitzer-winning author and historian Anne Applebaum talks to Gavin Esler about her new book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World. • “Putin began his career by stealing money from St Petersburg, laundering it and bringing it back… His path to power came through Western financial institutions.” • “It’s one thing to fight a dictator with a bunch of soldiers in his palace. It’s another to fight one who has billions to buy the latest technology – or just bribe people.” • “Putin developed a scorn for the West. ‘You let me steal, you’re corrupt.’ And the conviction that the West is corrupt feeds into modern autocracy.” • “The kleptocracy comes first. The autocracy follows.” • Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/thebunker to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The US is currently suffering a crisis in democracy, and its effects are far-reaching. But how does it relate to the global rise in authoritarianism and conflict? In the wake of compounding concerns created by the recent Supreme Court immunity decision and increasing calls for Joe Biden to step down from the Presidential nomination due to his age, This Is Not A Drill assesses the stakes at play for global security. America is in turmoil after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump. But worrying developments – from a Supreme Court decision that conceivably puts the US President above the law, to the Democrats’ paralysis in the face of Biden’s declining powers – point to a deeper crisis. If America can’t function as a democracy, where does that leave the peace and stability of the world? Emma Beals speaks to former U.S. Director of Policy Planning Richard Haass and former Foreign Policy Advisor to Bernie Sanders Matt Duss to explore whether the greatest threat to American democracy is no longer Donald Trump, but comes from within the Democratic Party itself. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s most powerful countries are in political crisis. Emmanuelle Macron’s big gamble to halt the progress of Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National seems to have paid off – for now. But Germany’s far right Alternative für Deutschland continues to eat into the national vote and the country’s post-war consensus. What does the rise of extremists who are soft on Putin, or even pro-Russia, mean for the safety of Europe? Gavin Esler asks Economist Paris bureau chief Sophie Pedder about France’s close shave with extreme nationalism, and whether that escape is temporary. And director of eurointelligence.com and New Statesman columnist Wolfgang Munchau explains what’s driving Germany’s dance with the far right. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A recent large-scale attack on an NHS provider by the Russian based criminal group Qilin has exposed lingering vulnerabilities in our digital infrastructure - but an ongoing Chinese state sponsored attack, known as Volt Typhoon, has been described by US officials as a game changer in the realm of cyber warfare. Emma Beals speaks to former founding chief executive of the UK National Cyber Security Centre Professor Ciaran Martin and senior fellow for global cyber policy at the Council on Foreign Relations Tarah Wheeler to find out how much is at stake on this digital battleground, and what we can do about it. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Incidental music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How did the Ukrainian people face down an invasion of unprecedented savagery from Putin’s Russia? And how did the battle for Ukraine’s capital shape the war that followed? Illia Ponomarenko is the author of the new book I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv and former defence correspondent at the Kyiv Independent. He talks to Oz Katerji about the experience of reporting under fire – and what it’s like for a people to defy subjugation. Buy I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The West’s era of supremacy is over. Britain’s next Prime Minister will face the most dangerous security environment since the Second World War – a new age of critical insecurity. From Ukraine to the Middle East to China/Taiwan and beyond, the threats are piling up: cyberattacks, nuclear intimidation, assassinations on our territory and more. How will the next Prime Minister handle them? And have Brexit and our political instability left us too weakened to withstand them? Gavin Esler find out from Dr Christine Cheng – national security lecturer at King’s College London and chair of the Lib Dems’ National Security Group – and the UK’s first-ever National Security Advisor Lord Peter Ricketts. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether Trump wins the Presidential Election or not, his dark place in American history is assured. He’s not just the first former or sitting President to be convicted of criminal activity, and the first to attempt to overturn an election. He has changed the Republican Party and its voter base deeply and possibly irrevocably. How will Trump be remembered? Gavin Esler asks Boston College professor of American History Heather Cox-Richardson what Trump has done to the Republican Party – whether a Trump win really means the end of democracy in the US – and what comes after he has vacated the scene. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hard right parties are sweeping Europe and analysts fear they will do well in this week’s elections across the EU. How deeply are radical right parties, with their immigration and culture war fixations and indulgence of Putin, distorting politics from Spain to Germany and Poland and beyond? What does their success mean for the EU’s stability and the defence of Ukraine? And can the populist wave be stopped? Gavin Esler talks to political analyst Catherine Fieschi – author of Populocracy: The Tyranny of Authenticity and the Rise of Populism – and German public broadcaster ARD’s London Bureau Chief Annette Dittert about the defining threat of our age: extremist populism. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What’s it like to live next to the world’s worst neighbour: Vladimir Putin’s Russia? In 2024, pro-democracy Georgians are beaten for resisting their pro-Moscow government from enacting a Putinesque “foreign agents” law. Poland is rearming against the Russian threat, and the Baltic states of the former USSR are subjected to hybrid warfare from their former occupiers. Yet instead of terrorising Europe, is Putin’s aggression uniting it behind ideals of democracy and mutual support? Polish historian Karolina Wigura tells Gavin Esler how Russia’s belligerence is turning Poland towards the West. And Russian Studies expert and RUSI fellow Natia Seskuria explains Georgia’s unprecedented pro-EU protests. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended Israel in its war with Hamas; and why China is now the economic master of Russia. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the uncontrolled spread of A.I., deepfakes and disinformation technology? Emma Beals talks to “Godfather of democracy studies” Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, and Katie Harbath – former Facebook Public Policy Director, and founder of Anchor Change – about a critical year for democracy. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can he square China’s goal of being the “workshop of the world” with its foreign policy? And will he really move against Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to distinguished China correspondent James Miles and political scientist and historian Professor Steve Tsang, co-author of The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, about China’s leader and his goals. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the idea of a coherent, US-led world order in tatters. In a special panel episode, Gavin Esler is joined by co-hosts Emma Beals and Oz Katerji to talk about American foreign policy in an age of spiralling tensions in the Middle East, the continued threat from Russia, and the wildcard risk of a potential return to the White House of Donald Trump. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler, with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t only threatened by war, drought and Islamist terror. The “Africa Corps” wing of Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries are vying with the Gulf States for power, influence and Africa’s resources. Where did it go wrong for democracy in Africa – and is there any way to fix this delicate region? With the Sudanese journalist Dallia Abdelmoniem and Dr Ebenezer Obadare, Senior Fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’s calculus, the balance of power… and whether Iran’s claim that “the issue is concluded” is as much a prayer as a statement. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new funding sources: the global drugs trade, and even crypto. Gavin Esler speaks to Dr David Ucko – professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University – and counterinsurgency and organised crime expert Vanda Felbab-Brown to find out why asymmetric warfare has returned, who’s funding it… and whether we can ever defeat it. • “We have put a lot of stock in fences and walls which may soon prove inadequate. What if you can fly a drone from North Africa with pinpoint accuracy into a civilian airport?” – Dr David Ucko • “A global revolution in synthetic drugs is sweeping the world… and everywhere it’s associated with intensified violence.” – Vanda Felbab-Brown • “If we ignore this, then you get the Wagner Group and other players trying to do their thing, as we see in the Sahel and across Africa.” – Dr David Ucko Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. *The views of Dr David Ucko belong to the contributor and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or its components or the USF administration or its component. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage? Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative – and Bruce Jones, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, to discover the new conflict on the High Seas. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services. Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov about this catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, her military and her emergency services – and the possible consequences of the Crocus City Hall massacre. Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to do about it? Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov and former CIA officer turned novelist Alex Finley about our new Age of Spies – from murders on foreign soil to the information war on Kyiv to the infestation of Vienna as an “aircraft carrier of spies” • “The first round [in this espionage battle] was the Second World War, and Russia won that one. The second was the Cold War which Russia lost. For Russia, this is the third round – and it’s time for revenge.” – Andrei Soldatov • “Ukraine is the kinetic war but really this is worldwide hybrid war against the rest of us. It’s much bigger than most people realise.” – Alex Finley • “European intelligence agencies operate as if this is a time of peace. For Russian agencies, this is a time of war.” – Andrei Soldatov • “We’re at a pivotal moment in history. Either we are going to secure democracy or we are going to enter an authoritarian moment.” – Alex Finley Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter Pomerantsev, author of How To Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler about Russia’s post-truth strategy – and what the astonishing WWII story of British propagandist Sefton Delmer can teach us about fighting big state lies. • “Russia uses the term ‘information war’ across its strategy… They see everything from the BBC to NGOs as part of an information war machine ranged against Russia.” • “This is a very cynical worldview, where no journalism is genuine – it must have been ordered by some dark forces.” • “Putin knows that being able to lie and laugh in people’s faces is a sign of power.” • “Sefton Delmer gave ordinary Germans a safe environment where they could start to be disloyal to the Nazis… He gave people a form of psychological cover.” Buy How To Win An Information War and Peter Pomerantsev’s This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality through our affiliate bookshop. You’ll be helping to fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its hardline power in the Muslim world? What do its second- and third-generation revolutionaries want? And can the West contain them? Gavin Esler talks to Arash Azizi, author of What Iranians Want, and Barbara Slavin, author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies, to explore the basis of Iranian power – and how Donald Trump wrecked what trust there was between the US and Iran. • “Iran is now more of a military regime than a theocracy… The Revolutionary Guard and Khameini’s family are calling the shots.” – Barbara Slavin • “It’s not about religion any more. It’s about a bunch of goons who are willing to rule over your life in any way they want.” – Arash Azizi • “Iran today is internationally isolated and economically destroyed… The Islamic Republic has taken our country hostage and made it a foreign policy tool for an ideology.” – Arash Azizi • “Trump not only destroyed any basis of trust between the US and Iran, he destroyed confidence in the US as being a state that lives up to its commitments.” – Barbara Slavin Buy these and others books through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrainians have reason to be optimistic about the future. • “It is clear that if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Putin will not stop there… It would doom Europe to decades of war.” • “The resolve of Ukrainians has not weakened… But we don’t see the West’s words matched by deeds.” • “Avdiivka is not such a huge victory for Russia… The price that Russia has paid is huge.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter? Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means. Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week. • “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.” • “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.” • “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies? Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at King’s College London, and Middle East expert Dr Talal Mohammad to find out how MBZ is buying his way to power. • “9/11 was a formative moment for him. He saw how powerful these Islamist networks could be in his own country… it brought about a perception of ‘If you’re not with us, you’re against us’.” – Dr Andreas Krieg • “As long as the major world powers are divided, then the UAE, Saudi and the others will try to exploit that situation.” – Dr Talal Mohammad • “Everyone who knows him from Sandhurst says he’s not one of these spoilt princes. He is highly disciplined and he has a vision of what he wants for the UAE.” – Dr Andreas Krieg Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends? Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem. • “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck • “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps • “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck • “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war? Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nuclear analyst Rachel Minyoung Lee and Seoul-based journalist and NKnews.org founder Chad O’Carroll about the road to North Korea’s new aggression, its increasingly cosy relationships with Putin and China… and what Kim really wants. • “In a crowded field of human rights abusers, North Korea is regarded as the worst.” – Gavin Esler • “Times could not be better for North Korea… Ukraine showed them that the US will not engage another nuclear power on the battlefield.” – Rachel Minyoung Lee • “Korea is the ultimate dictatorship. It learned from the fall of socialism and other totalitarian systems how to deal with that risk.” – Chad O’Carroll Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first of our semi-regular panel discussions. • “It’s very simple. If you don’t want to worry about conscription then provide Ukraine with the support it needs.” – Oz Katerji • “The US was trying very hard to steer clear of the Middle East before October… They’ve been brought back unwillingly and they don’t have a lot of choice in the matter.” – Emma Beals • “My strong impression is that Donald Trump is out for revenge against both Ukraine and Zelenskyy… There is real concern about a Trump presidency.” – Oz Katerji Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace talks in Istanbul in October 2022, the myth that Boris Johnson sank them, and the danger of new ceasefire discussions, especially under Trump. He speaks to Yaroslav Trofimov – Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal and author of Our Enemies will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence – and Brookings Institute fellow Dr Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World. • “When Ukrainian forces entered Bucha, that was when everyone realised what happens under Russian rule… That it is not just a war to replace a government, it’s a war with genocidal intent.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “This war will be decided by which society cracks first.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “There are election posters up in Moscow which say ‘Russia has no borders’… There is no indication that Russia is serious about a peace deal.” – Angela Stent Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to journalist William Yang in Taipei and China expert Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney about a decades-old conflict that is heating up alarmingly. • “China tried to drum up rhetoric that the election was a choice between war and peace… This sabre-rattling only worked among the older generation.” – William Yang • “There’s not much the US could do in the short-term if China decided to move.” – Richard McGregor • “Xi has a ton of enemies, from people whose careers he destroyed in his anticorruption campaign to more liberal Chinese… They are waiting for him to stumble.” – Richard McGregor Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Additional music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen. The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the devastating reprisals in Gaza? For further context listen to our Houthi explainer with Helen Lackner here: http://listen.podmasters.uk/tinadwebsite?at=1001l39LM Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran is fanning the flames. What happens next? Gavin Esler talks to Helen Lackner, author of Yemen In Crisis, to find out who the Houthi are, what they want, what their rebellion means for the West… and whether the war could spread. (This edition recorded before the US/UK missile actions) Follow The Bunker on your favourite podcast provider for daily explainers, interviews and untold stories from the worlds of politics and current affairs – all bite-sized for your commute. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Art by James Parrett. Bunker music by Kenny Dickinson. TINAD music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER and THIS IS NOT A DRILL are Podmasters Productions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices