This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

The course of the war in Ukraine changed dramatically on Tuesday 6th August when Ukraine launched an unprecedented incursion on Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive took Moscow entirely by surprise, with thousands of Ukrainian troops moving into the region – taking control of villages – and claiming 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. What does this sudden move to the offensive by Zelenskyy mean? What can Ukraine achieve – and how does the attack change the dynamic of the war? Oz Katerji finds out from Ukraine security expert Maria Avdeeva, Research Director at the European Expert Association. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Eliza Beard Davis. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. The Ukraine war might have left her internationally isolated and starved of resources – but Putin and his oligarch court are adept at avoiding financial restrictions, cutting side deals that enable them to fund the war and protect their power. Are the West’s sanctions working? How can we tighten them? Is there really any difference between sanctions evasion and international criminal money laundering? And who are Putin’s true allies? Gavin Esler finds out from Maria Shagina – Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and Ian Garner of Poland’s Pilecki Institute, author of Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The days of Western economic, cultural and military dominance are fading. China’s influence and military assertiveness are growing. Rising economies like Brazil, Indonesia and India are increasing powerful. What will the world look like when the West doesn’t write the rules any more? Gavin Esler talks to former UK diplomat Samir Puri about his book Westlessness: The Great Global Rebalancing, and with Tufts University Professor of International Politics Dan Drezner about America’s foreign policy crossroads. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The existential threats to world stability are working together. Autocrats in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are moving in concert with both their clients and fellow travellers in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Myanmar, Belarus and other despotisms. United not by ideology but by a love of repression, wealth and power, these new tyrants strike deals to consolidate their control and threaten their shared enemy: us. What does this League Against The Nations want? And how can we combat it? Pulitzer-winning author and historian Anne Applebaum talks to Gavin Esler about her new book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World. • “Putin began his career by stealing money from St Petersburg, laundering it and bringing it back… His path to power came through Western financial institutions.” • “It’s one thing to fight a dictator with a bunch of soldiers in his palace. It’s another to fight one who has billions to buy the latest technology – or just bribe people.” • “Putin developed a scorn for the West. ‘You let me steal, you’re corrupt.’ And the conviction that the West is corrupt feeds into modern autocracy.” • “The kleptocracy comes first. The autocracy follows.” • Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/thebunker to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The US is currently suffering a crisis in democracy, and its effects are far-reaching. But how does it relate to the global rise in authoritarianism and conflict? In the wake of compounding concerns created by the recent Supreme Court immunity decision and increasing calls for Joe Biden to step down from the Presidential nomination due to his age, This Is Not A Drill assesses the stakes at play for global security. America is in turmoil after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump. But worrying developments – from a Supreme Court decision that conceivably puts the US President above the law, to the Democrats’ paralysis in the face of Biden’s declining powers – point to a deeper crisis. If America can’t function as a democracy, where does that leave the peace and stability of the world? Emma Beals speaks to former U.S. Director of Policy Planning Richard Haass and former Foreign Policy Advisor to Bernie Sanders Matt Duss to explore whether the greatest threat to American democracy is no longer Donald Trump, but comes from within the Democratic Party itself. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s most powerful countries are in political crisis. Emmanuelle Macron’s big gamble to halt the progress of Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National seems to have paid off – for now. But Germany’s far right Alternative für Deutschland continues to eat into the national vote and the country’s post-war consensus. What does the rise of extremists who are soft on Putin, or even pro-Russia, mean for the safety of Europe? Gavin Esler asks Economist Paris bureau chief Sophie Pedder about France’s close shave with extreme nationalism, and whether that escape is temporary. And director of eurointelligence.com and New Statesman columnist Wolfgang Munchau explains what’s driving Germany’s dance with the far right. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A recent large-scale attack on an NHS provider by the Russian based criminal group Qilin has exposed lingering vulnerabilities in our digital infrastructure - but an ongoing Chinese state sponsored attack, known as Volt Typhoon, has been described by US officials as a game changer in the realm of cyber warfare. Emma Beals speaks to former founding chief executive of the UK National Cyber Security Centre Professor Ciaran Martin and senior fellow for global cyber policy at the Council on Foreign Relations Tarah Wheeler to find out how much is at stake on this digital battleground, and what we can do about it. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Incidental music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How did the Ukrainian people face down an invasion of unprecedented savagery from Putin’s Russia? And how did the battle for Ukraine’s capital shape the war that followed? Illia Ponomarenko is the author of the new book I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv and former defence correspondent at the Kyiv Independent. He talks to Oz Katerji about the experience of reporting under fire – and what it’s like for a people to defy subjugation. Buy I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The West’s era of supremacy is over. Britain’s next Prime Minister will face the most dangerous security environment since the Second World War – a new age of critical insecurity. From Ukraine to the Middle East to China/Taiwan and beyond, the threats are piling up: cyberattacks, nuclear intimidation, assassinations on our territory and more. How will the next Prime Minister handle them? And have Brexit and our political instability left us too weakened to withstand them? Gavin Esler find out from Dr Christine Cheng – national security lecturer at King’s College London and chair of the Lib Dems’ National Security Group – and the UK’s first-ever National Security Advisor Lord Peter Ricketts. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether Trump wins the Presidential Election or not, his dark place in American history is assured. He’s not just the first former or sitting President to be convicted of criminal activity, and the first to attempt to overturn an election. He has changed the Republican Party and its voter base deeply and possibly irrevocably. How will Trump be remembered? Gavin Esler asks Boston College professor of American History Heather Cox-Richardson what Trump has done to the Republican Party – whether a Trump win really means the end of democracy in the US – and what comes after he has vacated the scene. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hard right parties are sweeping Europe and analysts fear they will do well in this week’s elections across the EU. How deeply are radical right parties, with their immigration and culture war fixations and indulgence of Putin, distorting politics from Spain to Germany and Poland and beyond? What does their success mean for the EU’s stability and the defence of Ukraine? And can the populist wave be stopped? Gavin Esler talks to political analyst Catherine Fieschi – author of Populocracy: The Tyranny of Authenticity and the Rise of Populism – and German public broadcaster ARD’s London Bureau Chief Annette Dittert about the defining threat of our age: extremist populism. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What’s it like to live next to the world’s worst neighbour: Vladimir Putin’s Russia? In 2024, pro-democracy Georgians are beaten for resisting their pro-Moscow government from enacting a Putinesque “foreign agents” law. Poland is rearming against the Russian threat, and the Baltic states of the former USSR are subjected to hybrid warfare from their former occupiers. Yet instead of terrorising Europe, is Putin’s aggression uniting it behind ideals of democracy and mutual support? Polish historian Karolina Wigura tells Gavin Esler how Russia’s belligerence is turning Poland towards the West. And Russian Studies expert and RUSI fellow Natia Seskuria explains Georgia’s unprecedented pro-EU protests. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended Israel in its war with Hamas; and why China is now the economic master of Russia. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the uncontrolled spread of A.I., deepfakes and disinformation technology? Emma Beals talks to “Godfather of democracy studies” Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, and Katie Harbath – former Facebook Public Policy Director, and founder of Anchor Change – about a critical year for democracy. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can he square China’s goal of being the “workshop of the world” with its foreign policy? And will he really move against Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to distinguished China correspondent James Miles and political scientist and historian Professor Steve Tsang, co-author of The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, about China’s leader and his goals. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the idea of a coherent, US-led world order in tatters. In a special panel episode, Gavin Esler is joined by co-hosts Emma Beals and Oz Katerji to talk about American foreign policy in an age of spiralling tensions in the Middle East, the continued threat from Russia, and the wildcard risk of a potential return to the White House of Donald Trump. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler, with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t only threatened by war, drought and Islamist terror. The “Africa Corps” wing of Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries are vying with the Gulf States for power, influence and Africa’s resources. Where did it go wrong for democracy in Africa – and is there any way to fix this delicate region? With the Sudanese journalist Dallia Abdelmoniem and Dr Ebenezer Obadare, Senior Fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’s calculus, the balance of power… and whether Iran’s claim that “the issue is concluded” is as much a prayer as a statement. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new funding sources: the global drugs trade, and even crypto. Gavin Esler speaks to Dr David Ucko – professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University – and counterinsurgency and organised crime expert Vanda Felbab-Brown to find out why asymmetric warfare has returned, who’s funding it… and whether we can ever defeat it. • “We have put a lot of stock in fences and walls which may soon prove inadequate. What if you can fly a drone from North Africa with pinpoint accuracy into a civilian airport?” – Dr David Ucko • “A global revolution in synthetic drugs is sweeping the world… and everywhere it’s associated with intensified violence.” – Vanda Felbab-Brown • “If we ignore this, then you get the Wagner Group and other players trying to do their thing, as we see in the Sahel and across Africa.” – Dr David Ucko Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. *The views of Dr David Ucko belong to the contributor and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or its components or the USF administration or its component. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage? Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative – and Bruce Jones, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, to discover the new conflict on the High Seas. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services. Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov about this catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, her military and her emergency services – and the possible consequences of the Crocus City Hall massacre. Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to do about it? Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov and former CIA officer turned novelist Alex Finley about our new Age of Spies – from murders on foreign soil to the information war on Kyiv to the infestation of Vienna as an “aircraft carrier of spies” • “The first round [in this espionage battle] was the Second World War, and Russia won that one. The second was the Cold War which Russia lost. For Russia, this is the third round – and it’s time for revenge.” – Andrei Soldatov • “Ukraine is the kinetic war but really this is worldwide hybrid war against the rest of us. It’s much bigger than most people realise.” – Alex Finley • “European intelligence agencies operate as if this is a time of peace. For Russian agencies, this is a time of war.” – Andrei Soldatov • “We’re at a pivotal moment in history. Either we are going to secure democracy or we are going to enter an authoritarian moment.” – Alex Finley Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter Pomerantsev, author of How To Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler about Russia’s post-truth strategy – and what the astonishing WWII story of British propagandist Sefton Delmer can teach us about fighting big state lies. • “Russia uses the term ‘information war’ across its strategy… They see everything from the BBC to NGOs as part of an information war machine ranged against Russia.” • “This is a very cynical worldview, where no journalism is genuine – it must have been ordered by some dark forces.” • “Putin knows that being able to lie and laugh in people’s faces is a sign of power.” • “Sefton Delmer gave ordinary Germans a safe environment where they could start to be disloyal to the Nazis… He gave people a form of psychological cover.” Buy How To Win An Information War and Peter Pomerantsev’s This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality through our affiliate bookshop. You’ll be helping to fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its hardline power in the Muslim world? What do its second- and third-generation revolutionaries want? And can the West contain them? Gavin Esler talks to Arash Azizi, author of What Iranians Want, and Barbara Slavin, author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies, to explore the basis of Iranian power – and how Donald Trump wrecked what trust there was between the US and Iran. • “Iran is now more of a military regime than a theocracy… The Revolutionary Guard and Khameini’s family are calling the shots.” – Barbara Slavin • “It’s not about religion any more. It’s about a bunch of goons who are willing to rule over your life in any way they want.” – Arash Azizi • “Iran today is internationally isolated and economically destroyed… The Islamic Republic has taken our country hostage and made it a foreign policy tool for an ideology.” – Arash Azizi • “Trump not only destroyed any basis of trust between the US and Iran, he destroyed confidence in the US as being a state that lives up to its commitments.” – Barbara Slavin Buy these and others books through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrainians have reason to be optimistic about the future. • “It is clear that if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Putin will not stop there… It would doom Europe to decades of war.” • “The resolve of Ukrainians has not weakened… But we don’t see the West’s words matched by deeds.” • “Avdiivka is not such a huge victory for Russia… The price that Russia has paid is huge.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter? Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means. Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week. • “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.” • “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.” • “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies? Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at King’s College London, and Middle East expert Dr Talal Mohammad to find out how MBZ is buying his way to power. • “9/11 was a formative moment for him. He saw how powerful these Islamist networks could be in his own country… it brought about a perception of ‘If you’re not with us, you’re against us’.” – Dr Andreas Krieg • “As long as the major world powers are divided, then the UAE, Saudi and the others will try to exploit that situation.” – Dr Talal Mohammad • “Everyone who knows him from Sandhurst says he’s not one of these spoilt princes. He is highly disciplined and he has a vision of what he wants for the UAE.” – Dr Andreas Krieg Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends? Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem. • “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck • “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps • “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck • “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war? Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nuclear analyst Rachel Minyoung Lee and Seoul-based journalist and NKnews.org founder Chad O’Carroll about the road to North Korea’s new aggression, its increasingly cosy relationships with Putin and China… and what Kim really wants. • “In a crowded field of human rights abusers, North Korea is regarded as the worst.” – Gavin Esler • “Times could not be better for North Korea… Ukraine showed them that the US will not engage another nuclear power on the battlefield.” – Rachel Minyoung Lee • “Korea is the ultimate dictatorship. It learned from the fall of socialism and other totalitarian systems how to deal with that risk.” – Chad O’Carroll Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first of our semi-regular panel discussions. • “It’s very simple. If you don’t want to worry about conscription then provide Ukraine with the support it needs.” – Oz Katerji • “The US was trying very hard to steer clear of the Middle East before October… They’ve been brought back unwillingly and they don’t have a lot of choice in the matter.” – Emma Beals • “My strong impression is that Donald Trump is out for revenge against both Ukraine and Zelenskyy… There is real concern about a Trump presidency.” – Oz Katerji Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace talks in Istanbul in October 2022, the myth that Boris Johnson sank them, and the danger of new ceasefire discussions, especially under Trump. He speaks to Yaroslav Trofimov – Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal and author of Our Enemies will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence – and Brookings Institute fellow Dr Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World. • “When Ukrainian forces entered Bucha, that was when everyone realised what happens under Russian rule… That it is not just a war to replace a government, it’s a war with genocidal intent.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “This war will be decided by which society cracks first.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “There are election posters up in Moscow which say ‘Russia has no borders’… There is no indication that Russia is serious about a peace deal.” – Angela Stent Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to journalist William Yang in Taipei and China expert Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney about a decades-old conflict that is heating up alarmingly. • “China tried to drum up rhetoric that the election was a choice between war and peace… This sabre-rattling only worked among the older generation.” – William Yang • “There’s not much the US could do in the short-term if China decided to move.” – Richard McGregor • “Xi has a ton of enemies, from people whose careers he destroyed in his anticorruption campaign to more liberal Chinese… They are waiting for him to stumble.” – Richard McGregor Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Additional music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen. The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the devastating reprisals in Gaza? For further context listen to our Houthi explainer with Helen Lackner here: http://listen.podmasters.uk/tinadwebsite?at=1001l39LM Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran is fanning the flames. What happens next? Gavin Esler talks to Helen Lackner, author of Yemen In Crisis, to find out who the Houthi are, what they want, what their rebellion means for the West… and whether the war could spread. (This edition recorded before the US/UK missile actions) Follow The Bunker on your favourite podcast provider for daily explainers, interviews and untold stories from the worlds of politics and current affairs – all bite-sized for your commute. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Art by James Parrett. Bunker music by Kenny Dickinson. TINAD music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER and THIS IS NOT A DRILL are Podmasters Productions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In twelve months’ time America will inaugurate a new President. It could be a man who says he’ll act as a “dictator on day one,” who rejects elections if he doesn’t win them, and whose America First ideas could shatter what remains of the global order. With a year to go, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics Brian Klaas tells Gavin Esler how Donald Trump has damaged American politics more deeply than anyone realises – how driving Trump off mainstream social media to Truth Social only hid his increasingly fascistic outbursts from public view – and what it will take to stop him. • “Trump 2.0 would be way more dangerous than Trump 1.0.” • “It is highly likely that if Trump loses there will be significant political violence – probably worse than Jan 6.” • “Once you don’t have a shared sense of reality, democracy falls apart.” • “Come November, nobody will be able to say they didn’t know what was going on. He’s been completely open about it.” Buy Brian Klaas’s book Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism? Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter Ricketts, Britain’s first National Security Adviser, former chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and author of Hard Choices – an exploration of Britain’s place in the world. • “All that’s certain in 2024 is uncertainty.” – Gavin Esler • “If there’s been a strategic loser in Ukraine so far, it’s Vladimir Putin… He’s been forced into a junior partnership with China.” – Peter Ricketts • “I’m not so worried about the far right in Europe. I’m much more worried about Trump in the White House.” – Peter Ricketts Buy Hard Choices through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global order. Jasmin Mujanović explains how Russia is pushing to reignite the simmering Serbia/Kosovo dispute. And Putin-watcher Mark Galeotti explains that while the brutal system that the Russian tyrant has built looks invulnerable, behind the façade it is worryingly brittle. • “For most of Putin’s reign Russia has been at declared or undeclared war with someone. What he likes is a certain low level of chaos.” – Mark Galeotti • “Russia saw Serbia as a really cheap opportunity to invest in low-level chaos… which is now becoming more serious.” – Jasmin Mujanović • “Putin is going to look at what will be politically bloody, hard-fought American Presidential election and see how he can use it to tear the United States apart.” – Mark Galeotti Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungary’s Orbán really cutting migration to their countries like they say? And what does “solving” migration even mean? Just days after Suella Braverman’s incendiary Commons speech and Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick’s theatrical resignation over the Rwanda policy, Gavin Esler looks for answers with Prof Hein de Haas, author of How Migration Really Works. • “Immigration is the price you pay for being a wealthy market economy. That’s the bottom line.” • “Migration rhetoric is a vote-winner but it’s very dishonest… We have to be aware of what politicians say and what they do.” • “The Rwanda policy is an act of desperation. It’s been a huge failure and a political distraction.” Buy How Migration Really Works through our new affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s commission helps support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are we entering a new age of war? The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing, and they’re lasting longer. Wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine threaten to merge into wider conflagrations. Autocrats and populists see chaos as a route to power. America can no longer guarantee global stability, and democracy is faltering. Gavin Esler speaks to international conflict analyst Emma Beals and Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London Sir Lawrence Freedman about the new dynamics of conflict… and whether we can avoid another global war. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 a month for early, ad-free episodes and a chance to pick up some exclusive merchandise Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Presidency would mean for Ukraine’s freedom. We’re proud that Oz, a seasoned reporter, film-maker and podcasters, is joining the TINAD team. He’ll be hosting special editions on Ukraine and other flashpoints around the world at regular intervals. Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. • “The problem is the people watching the war on their screens and not taking account of how it’s happening in reality, on the ground.” – Maria Avdeeva, Ukrainian defence analyst • “The Brits understand this conflict far better than the Americans, for the simple reason that the Brits have a presence embedded on the ground.” – Michael Weiss, The Insider • “Everyone in Ukraine is aware that the war will be long. Ukraine will win. There is no other option. But it won’t be as fast as we were hoping a year ago.” – Maria Avdeeva • “Trump’s first impeachment was over Ukraine and he sees it as an abscess to be lanced… A Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine.” – Michael Weiss Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage before it spreads? Gavin Esler looks for answers with author and journalist Kim Ghattas who is based in Beirut – a Hamas stronghold – and Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland, author of The Escape Artist: The Man Who Broke Out of Auschwitz to Warn the World. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. • “Iran has been using the Palestinian cause as a way to assert itself as a leader in the region for 45 years.” – Kim Ghattas • “Netanyahu needs to be in the Prime Minister’s chair to stay out of prison.” – Jonathan Freedland • “Hamas thought everyone would pitch in after their attacks, but there has been no uprising. In the Arab world you’re starting to hear ‘Iran will fight Israel to the last Arab… or to the last Sunni.’” – Kim Ghattas • “Like most militaries, Israel does not want to see photographs of dead children. To Hamas, photos like those are an asset in the battle for world opinion.” – Jonathan Freedland Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins? Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of conservative magazine The Bulwark, who has broken with the Republicans in revulsion at the party’s surrender to the MAGA ideal; and historian Sarah Churchwell, author of Behold America: The Entangled History of “America First” and “The American Dream”, to understand the United States’ fateful choice. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. Buy Behold America here and help the podcast via our affiliate links. • “The worst thing is that Trump is succeeding because of the demagoguery, the incitement, the violence and the contempt for the rule of law – not in spite of it.” – Bill Kristol • “Trump is of a kind that we’ve seen before, but of a degree that we’ve never seen before. And he’s achieved power that we’ve never seen before.” – Sarah Churchwell Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’ve got a brand-new host: Gavin Esler, former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight. Gavin will be talking to highly experienced diplomats, academics and journalists to guide you through the world’s worsening geopolitics nightmare. New episodes start weekly from Weds 14 Nov 2023 – and two days early for Patreon supporters. Follow now on your favourite app. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance. With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation. But perhaps predictably in an age of war in Europe - there remain tensions and very big questions. The biggest of all - what to do about Ukraine? To discuss what it means for the war in Ukraine; the nature of global security, and the still-dominant role the USA plays in this post-WW2 organisation, Arthur Snell is joined by: - Dr Ulrike Franke: senior fellow at the European Council on foreign relations - John Lough: Chatham House associate fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme and the former NATO man in Moscow - Steven Pifer: former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assitant Producer Liam Tait. Art by Jim Parrett. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After an astonishing seven days in Russia, Doomsday Watch is back to answer some of the biggest questions following the aborted Wagner rebellion. How will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived insurrection affect Russia and its war of aggression on Ukraine? Few understand the machinations and manoeuvres of Russian politics like Christopher Steele - former head of the Russia desk at MI6 and the man behind the famous Trump dossier in 2016, which investigated Russia’s links to US politics. The director of consultancy Orbis Business Intelligence joins Arthur Snell to discuss the corruption which rots Russian elite society and drove Prigozhin’s challenge. And speaking from Kyiv - Doomsday Watch regular Dr Jade McGlynn - author of recent books Russia’s War and Memory Makers and researcher at King's College London. Arthur and Jade discuss developments in Ukraine and how Russian society is responding to Vladimir Putin’s attempts to shore up control following the rebellion. “A lot of this revolves around corrupt wealth, and vast amounts of it.” – Christopher Steele “I suspect that there was a falling out between Prigozhin, Shoigu and others over the spoils of war in Ukraine.” – Christopher Steele “I think a lot of Ukranians are, at the very least, enjoying watching the spiders fight in a jar, as they call it.” – Jade McGlynn Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer: Liam Tait. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The slow-motion breakdown of relations between Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s military has now accelerated into a fast-forward coup. Wagner mercenaries have taken control of Rostov - a Russian city which houses the headquarters of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. And now they are marching on Moscow. A worried Putin has made a national TV address and may even be onboard his special plane fleeing the country. Host Arthur Snell spoke to Doomsday Watch favourite Dr Mike Martin, military expert, academic and former soldier, for an emergency podcast on the latest developments. "These events effectively are the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine" “Putin will not be the president of Russia in six months’ time” “This is basic 101 on how to run a country - you don’t lose the monopoly of force” Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The finale of our history of the Ukraine war – for now. As Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive begins and Putin responds with mere nihilistic destruction, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Now Arthur Snell takes stock of the war so far. Ukraine’s fight for freedom could preserves the security of Europe’s hinterlands, and Russia’s failures have shown how NOT to fight a war. But history tells us that the fall of great powers puts global peace in grave peril. How can we prevent chaos in Russia spilling out across Europe and perhaps beyond? Arthur speaks to: • Serhii Plokhy, Prof of Ukrainian History at Harvard and the Author of ‘The Russo-Ukrainian War’ • Luke Harding, journalist and author of Orwell-prize shortlisted ‘Invasion’ • Iuliia Osmalenko, former Ukrainian diplomat and Head of Globsec Kyiv Office • Dr Mike Martin, military analyst and author of ‘How to Fight A War’ • Oleskii Plotnikov, serving Ukrainian soldier and human rights lawyer Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Photograph: Getty Featuring poetry by Yuliya Musakovska, read by the author, and by Anastasia Afanasiva, read by translator Olga Livshin Incidental music in order of appearance: • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra • ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir • ‘A Quiet Night (Tyhoyi Nochi)' by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How Putin’s war has reshaped the world. In Ep.7: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the rules-based international order. Now the strongmen are scrambling to take advantage. Arthur Snell looks at vast powerplays of Russian information warfare and Chinese influence across Africa and the developing world. Will China see financing Putin’s faltering Forever War as a good bet? And what is in store for Putin now that there are Russian resistance units active inside Russia itself? Hear the finale of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War right now when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “Putin no longer believes he can win on the battlefield to the necessary level. He has to outlast the west. It’s all he’s got.“ – Mark Galeotti • “By targeting fissures in the UK and US and increasing grievances, Russia can keep us polarised and keep us distracted.” – Nina Jankowicz. • “There are centuries of slavery baked inside the Russian psyche. But it doesn’t give Putin an eternal lease on the Russian soul.” – John Sweeney • “Every global problem that we’ve got can be traced back to authoritarians.” – Brian Klaas • “More than ever before the Kremlin needs to divert attention away from the mess that’s unfolding in its own country.” – Arthur Snell • “If the Ukrainians humiliate his killing machine… then Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin in a box.” – John Sweeney Photograph: Getty Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony ‘The Blessed I have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir ‘Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.6: How Ukrainian bravery and steadfastness amazed the world. These are the human stories of how a country much smaller than Russia was able to stand together under Putin’s astonishing onslaught – why a shovel is a soldier’s best friend – and how Ukrainian civilians who never thought of themselves as fighters found themselves rushing towards the front line. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “I was terrified of dying a wasteful death… but there was pride too. We’ve learned we’re more united and braver than we thought.” – Romeo Kokriatski • “Ironically it’s Russian’s repeated attacks on Ukraine that propelled this country’s sense of purpose and unity.” – Arthur Snell • “Before August 2022 it was hard to convince anyone that Ukraine could win this. After September I was struggling to convince people that victory wasn’t inevitable.” – Jack Watling • “Hopefully this war makes people around the world understand that freedom is not free.” – Olga Tokariuk Photograph courtesy Juan Barreto Incidental music in order of appearance: • ‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir • ‘O Lord, Hear My Prayer – Dmitry Bortniansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony ‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk was commissioned and recorded by SANSARA choir at the Ukrainian Cathedral in London, directed by Tom Herring. Hear the full track on SANSARA’s latest album Traces here: https://platoon.lnk.to/traces Find out more about the project on their website here: https://www.sansarachoir.com/a-quiet-night Follow SANSARA @SansaraChoir and on your preferred streaming platform. Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.5: As Putin’s assault falters and his army degenerates into retreat and atrocity, Russia’s self-image as a bulwark against fascism falls into tatters. Arthur Snell looks at the incompetence, factionalism, corruption and failure to plan which created this debacle – how Russia remains obsessed with the Great Patriotic War – how Chechnya and Georgia provided dry runs for Ukraine — and the cocktail of self-destructive impulses, self-pity and authority-worship that still drive ordinary Russians to support the war. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “At Hostomel, the Russian obsession with information security meant that they didn’t brief their own troops until it was too late.” – Jack Watling • “The Russian Army is a top-down organisation where initiative is frowned upon. It specialises in plodding assaults.” – Mike Martin • “You see Russia’s self-destructive tradition in its drinking and suicide rates, in the way power is distributed. We need to worry about that urge and who gets pulled into its vortex.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “The Russian attitude is, we saved the West from fascism. Now look at these ingrates.” – Jade McGlynn • “Putin was a pretty mediocre director of the FSB. He was always ‘talk big, fight small’ and Ukraine is his first truly big war, thrown together not by generals but by him and a few spooks.” – Mark Galeotti Photograph courtesy Anatolii Stepanov Incidental music in order of appearance: • Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of the Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices